I want to say that really and truly, after these incredible speeches and ideas that are being spread, I am in the awkward position of being here to talk to you today about television. So most everyone watches TV. We like it. We like some parts of it. Here in America, people actually love TV. The average American watches TV for almost 5 hours a day. Okay? Now I happen to make my living these days in television, so for me, that's a good thing. But a lot of people don't love it so much. They, in fact, berate it. They call it stupid, and worse, believe me. My mother, growing up, she called it the "idiot box."
我想说的是 继这些非凡的演讲 和广泛传播的想法之后 我真的处于一个尴尬的境地 因为今天我要讲的 是电视 几乎每个人都看电视 我们喜欢看电视 至少它的一部分 在美国,人们热爱电视 普通美国人每天 看5个小时的电视 是吧? 我恰好是靠电视吃饭的 所以对我来说,是个好事 但很多人并不太喜欢它 实际上,痛斥电视 他们称之为愚蠢 肯定还有更难听的 我的母亲,在我成长过程中 叫它“傻子盒子”
But my idea today is not to debate whether there's such a thing as good TV or bad TV; my idea today is to tell you that I believe television has a conscience. So why I believe that television has a conscience is that I actually believe that television directly reflects the moral, political, social and emotional need states of our nation -- that television is how we actually disseminate our entire value system. So all these things are uniquely human, and they all add up to our idea of conscience.
但我今天不是要辩论 电视的损益之处 我今天 是向告诉诸位 电视是有良知的 为什么我相信电视有良知 因为我相信 电视直接地反映了国民在 道德,政治 社会和情绪上的需要 因为电视是我们传播 整个价值体系的方法 所以人类具有的一切特质 都组成了 我们对良知的理解
Now today, we're not talking about good and bad TV. We're talking about popular TV. We're talking about top-10 Nielsen-rated shows over the course of 50 years. How do these Nielsen ratings reflect not just what you've heard about, which is the idea of our social, collective unconscious, but how do these top-10 Nielsen-rated shows over 50 years reflect the idea of our social conscience? How does television evolve over time, and what does this say about our society?
今天,我们不是讨论电视好坏 我们谈的是流行电视 50年间在 尼尔森排行前十的电视节目 尼尔森排行是如何 反映你所闻 也就是社会性的集体潜意识 同时这些50年间 在尼尔森排行前十的电视节目 是如何反映了 我们的社会良知? 电视又是如何与时俱进 怎样反映了社会现实?
Now speaking of evolution, from basic biology, you probably remember that the animal kingdom, including humans, have four basic primal instincts. You have hunger; you have sex; you have power; and you have the urge for acquisitiveness. As humans, what's important to remember is that we've developed, we've evolved over time to temper, or tame, these basic animal instincts. We have the capacity to laugh and cry. We feel awe, we feel pity. That is separate and apart from the animal kingdom. The other thing about human beings is that we love to be entertained. We love to watch TV. This is something that clearly separates us from the animal kingdom. Animals might love to play, but they don't love to watch.
说到演化 从生物学来说,你大概想到 动物世界,包括人类 具有四种基本本能 饥饿,性欲,权利 和获取欲望 作为人类,重要的是 我们在漫长时间中演化 能够驾驭 这些本能 我们可以笑和哭 我们感受敬畏和同情 这讲我们 和动物区别开来 人类的另一特性是 我们热衷于娱乐 我们喜欢看电视 这也是区别于 动物的 动物也许喜欢玩耍 但他们不喜欢观看
So I had an ambition to discover what could be understood from this uniquely human relationship between television programs and the human conscious. Why has television entertainment evolved the way it has? I kind of think of it as this cartoon devil or angel sitting on our shoulders. Is television literally functioning as our conscience, tempting us and rewarding us at the same time?
所以我试图 探索 这种电视节目和 人类良知间的独特关系 能给我们什么启示 为什么电视娱乐以它的方式发展? 我想像它 像卡通版的天使和魔鬼一样 坐在我们肩膀上 电视是不是真的 如同我们的良知 诱惑我们的同时奖励我们?
So to begin to answer these questions, we did a research study. We went back 50 years to the 1959/1960 television season. We surveyed the top-20 Nielsen shows every year for 50 years -- a thousand shows. We talked to over 3,000 individuals -- almost 3,600 -- aged 18 to 70, and we asked them how they felt emotionally. How did you feel watching every single one of these shows? Did you feel a sense of moral ambiguity? Did you feel outrage? Did you laugh? What did this mean for you? So to our global TED audiences, I want to say that this was a U.S. sample. But as you can see, these emotional need states are truly universal. And on a factual basis, over 80 percent of the U.S.'s most popular shows are exported around the world. So I really hope our global audiences can relate.
为解答这个问题 我们做了一个研究 从50年前开始 1959/1960的收视旺季 每一年 我们调查尼尔森排行前20个电视节目—— 是从一千个电视节目里挑出来的 我们向三千余名 几乎是三千六百名—— 18到70岁的 观众征询他们的情绪上的感受 他们对观看这每一个电视节目的 感受如何? 有觉得一种道德的不确定吗? 有觉得愤怒吗?笑了吗? 对你意义何在? 所以对全球的TED观众 我想说这是个美国标本 但是 这些感情需求是共通的 另外一个实事是 超过百分之八十的美国流行电视节目 出口到全世界 所以我真心希望全球观众 能有同感
Two acknowledgments before our first data slide: For inspiring me to even think about the idea of conscience and the tricks that conscience can play on us on a daily basis, I thank legendary rabbi, Jack Stern. And for the way in which I'm going to present the data, I want to thank TED community superstar Hans Rosling, who you may have just seen.
在展示数据前 首先要感谢两个人: 一位启发了 我去思考良知这个问题 以及良知是如何影响我们的日常生活 谢谢传奇牧师,杰克・斯特恩 另外关于公布数据方法 我得谢谢TED社区的明星汉斯・罗斯林 你们也许刚刚见过
Okay, here we go. So here you see, from 1960 to 2010, the 50 years of our study. Two things we're going to start with -- the inspiration state and the moral ambiguity state, which, for this purpose, we defined inspiration as television shows that uplift me, that make me feel much more positive about the world. Moral ambiguity are televisions shows in which I don't understand the difference between right and wrong. As we start, you see in 1960 inspiration is holding steady. That's what we're watching TV for. Moral ambiguity starts to climb. Right at the end of the 60s, moral ambiguity is going up, inspiration is kind of on the wane. Why? The Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK is shot, the Civil Rights movement, race riots, the Vietnam War, MLK is shot, Bobby Kennedy is shot, Watergate. Look what happens. In 1970, inspiration plummets. Moral ambiguity takes off. They cross, but Ronald Reagan, a telegenic president, is in office. It's trying to recover. But look, it can't: AIDS, Iran-Contra, the Challenger disaster, Chernobyl. Moral ambiguity becomes the dominant meme in television from 1990 for the next 20 years.
好,我们开始吧 这里看到的 就是从1960年到2010年 50年的研究 我们从两点着手- 启发性和道德不确定性 为此 我们定义启发性为 电视节目提升我们 使我们更积极面对世界 道德不确定性是指那些 我不明白 是非分界的电视节目 你看到1960年开端 启发性比较稳定 那是我们看电视的原因 道德不确定性开始爬升 六十年代末 道德不确定性在上升 启发性则在衰落 为什么 古巴导弹危机,肯尼迪总统遇刺 美国民权运动 种族暴动,越战 马丁·路德·金遇刺,鲍勃・肯尼迪遇刺 水门事件 看看有什么变化 70年代,启发性下滑 道德不确定性上升 二者交叉而过 但罗纳德・里根,最上镜的总统上任 试图纠正 但是看,不行 艾滋病,伊朗门 更严重的灾难,切尔诺贝利核事故 道德不确定性成为电视的主导模因 从1990年开始持续了20年
Take a look at this. This chart is going to document a very similar trend. But in this case, we have comfort -- the bubble in red -- social commentary and irreverence in blue and green. Now this time on TV you have "Bonanza," don't forget, you have "Gunsmoke," you have "Andy Griffith," you have domestic shows all about comfort. This is rising. Comfort stays whole. Irreverence starts to rise. Social commentary is all of a sudden spiking up. You get to 1969, and look what happens. You have comfort, irreverence, and social commentary, not only battling it out in our society, but you literally have two establishment shows -- "Gunsmoke" and "Gomer Pyle" -- in 1969 are the number-two- and number-three-rated television shows. What's number one? The socially irreverent hippie show, "Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In." They're all living together, right. Viewers had responded dramatically.
再来看看这个 这个图表将要展现的是非常相似的趋势 但在这个表上,有舒适性-红点 社会评论以及不敬 是蓝点和绿点 这个时候的电视上 可以看到《大淘金》,别忘了《荒野大镖客》(均为西部片) 还有安迪·格里菲斯 国内的电视节目都令人愉快 舒适性在上升,在主导地位 不敬呈上升趋势 社会评论突然激增 看看1969年的情况 舒适性,不敬和社会评论 同时占据社会 当时有两大电视节目- 《荒野大镖客》和《傻子派尔》- 在1969年是分别排行第二和第三的电视节目 第一是什么呢? 藐视社会的嬉皮士节目 《鲁旺和马丁搞笑集》 他们都同时存在 观众对此反映强烈
Look at this green spike in 1966 to a bellwether show. When you guys hear this industry term, a breakout hit, what does that mean? It means in the 1966 television season, The "Smothers Brothers" came out of nowhere. This was the first show that allowed viewers to say, "My God, I can comment on how I feel about the Vietnam War, about the presidency, through television?" That's what we mean by a breakout show.
看看1966年的这个 对于一个人气节目的反应突起 当你听到这个行业术语,突破 这意味着什么? 意味着1966年收视旺季里 《窒息兄弟》横空出世 这是第一个电视剧 让观众惊叹 “天哪 我能通过电视对越战 还有总统执政评论?” 这就是我所说的突破
So then, just like the last chart, look what happens. In 1970, the dam bursts. The dam bursts. Comfort is no longer why we watch television. Social commentary and irreverence rise throughout the 70s. Now look at this. The 70s means who? Norman Lear. You have "All in the Family," "Sanford and Son," and the dominant show -- in the top-10 for the entire 70s -- "M<i>A</i>S*H." In the entire 50 years of television that we studied, seven of 10 shows ranked most highly for irreverence appeared on air during the Vietnam War, five of the top-10 during the Nixon administration. Only one generation, 20 years in, and we discovered, Wow! TV can do that? It can make me feel this? It can change us? So to this very, very savvy crowd, I also want to note the digital folks did not invent disruptive. Archie Bunker was shoved out of his easy chair along with the rest of us 40 years ago.
最后一部分 1970年 如溃堤一般 舒适性不再是我们看电视的原因 社会评论和不敬 在70年代不断上升 看看这个 70年代的代表人物是谁?诺曼・李尔 有《全家福》,《桑福德和儿子》 和人气剧- 整个70年代稳居前十的 《风流医生俏护士》 在我们研究过的50年的 电视节目中 七成高居 不敬的分类榜单的节目 开播于越战期间 前十里有5个是出现于尼克松执政期 只是短短一代人时间,20年 我们发现 哇!电视能做到这些? 能让我们感受到这些? 它能改变我们? 对于这群聪明人 我也想指出 数码时代并没有颠覆时代 40年前 亚奇・邦克连同我们 被推下了安乐椅
This is a quick chart. Here's another attribute: fantasy and imagination, which are shows defined as, "takes me out of my everyday realm" and "makes me feel better." That's mapped against the red dot, unemployment, which is a simple Bureau of Labor Department statistic. You'll see that every time fantasy and imagination shows rise, it maps to a spike in unemployment. Do we want to see shows about people saving money and being unemployed? No. In the 70s you have the bellwether show "The Bionic Woman" that rocketed into the top-10 in 1973, followed by the "Six Million-Dollar Man" and "Charlie's Angels." Another spike in the 1980s -- another spike in shows about control and power. What were those shows? Glamorous and rich. "Dallas," "Fantasy Island." Incredible mapping of our national psyche with some hard and fast facts: unemployment.
这个图表比较精简 这是另一个要素 幻想和想像 它被定义为 “逃离平庸日常生活” 和“让我感觉更美好” 这个标记跟红点,即失业率相对 失业率是单纯从劳动部获得的数据 可以看到 每次幻想/想像的节目增加 与失业率的上升相对应 我们想看节目里 人们省吃俭用还是无业状态吗? 不 70年代 有热门剧《无敌女金刚》 1973年这个剧升到前十的榜单 跟在后面的是《无敌金刚》和《女探俏娇娃》 另一个增长是在80年代 这个增长是关于控制和权利的节目的增加 是什么电视剧呢? 关于荣誉和财富的 《达拉斯》《梦幻岛》 (这些剧)与一个冷硬的现实 共同标记了国民的精神状态: 这个现实就是失业率
So here you are, in my favorite chart, because this is our last 20 years. Whether or not you're in my business, you have surely heard or read of the decline of the thing called the three-camera sitcom and the rise of reality TV. Well, as we say in the business, X marks the spot. The 90s -- the big bubbles of humor -- we're watching "Friends," "Frasier," "Cheers" and "Seinfeld." Everything's good, low unemployment. But look: X marks the spot. In 2001, the September 2001 television season, humor succumbs to judgment once and for all. Why not? We had a 2000 presidential election decided by the Supreme Court. We had the bursting of the tech bubble. We had 9/11. Anthrax becomes part of the social lexicon. Look what happens when we keep going. At the turn of the century, the Internet takes off, reality television has taken hold. What do people want in their TV then? I would have thought revenge or nostalgia. Give me some comfort; my world is falling apart. No, they want judgment. I can vote you off the island. I can keep Sarah Palin's daughter dancing. I can choose the next American Idol. You're fired. That's all great, right?
这里是我最喜欢的部分 因为这是最后的20年 无论如何你肯定是其中一部分 你肯定听过或者读到过 三位摄像系统的情景喜剧的衰落 和真人秀的崛起 行业内所称 X标记点 90年代-幽默的泡沫期 我们看《六人行》《欢乐一家亲》《干杯酒吧》和《宋飞传》 一起都很美好,低失业率 但是看:X标记点 2001年 2001年九月的收视旺季中 幽默一下子转变为评论 为什么? 2000年总统大选 最后又最高法庭判决 科技泡沫的破碎 911事件 炭疽热称为新热门词 看看后面是什么? 随着新世纪的到来,互联网普及 真人秀开始占主导 人们希望在电视上看到什么? 我认为是报复 或者怀旧 给我点舒适的东西,我的世界破碎不堪 不,他们要公平 我要通过投票让你离开小岛 我要让莎拉・佩林的女儿继续跳舞 我来定下一个美国偶像 你被炒了 非常爽 是吧?
So as dramatically different as these television shows, pure entertainment, have been over the last 50 years -- what did I start with? -- one basic instinct remains. We're animals, we need our moms. There has not been a decade of television without a definitive, dominant TV mom. The 1950s: June Cleever in the original comfort show, "Leave it to Beaver." Lucille Ball kept us laughing through the rise of social consciousness in the 60s. Maude Findlay, the epitome of the irreverent 1970s, who tackled abortion, divorce, even menopause on TV. The 1980s, our first cougar was given to us in the form of Alexis Carrington. Murphy Brown took on a vice president when she took on the idea of single parenthood. This era's mom, Bree Van de Kamp. Now I don't know if this is the devil or the angel sitting on our conscience, sitting on television's shoulders, but I do know that I absolutely love this image.
所以如同这些悬殊不同的电视剧 过去50年间的纯娱乐 该怎么说?- 有一个本能留下来了 我们是动物,需要母亲 还没有一个年代的电视剧 没有一个强大的有利的电视母亲 50年代: 欢乐剧《反斗小宝贝》里的朱恩・克里夫 露西・鲍尔让我们欢笑 在60年代的社会意识觉醒里 莫德・芬德利 是无敬畏的70年代典型 荧屏上的她经历过流产,离婚 甚至是绝经 80年代 艾丽克希丝·卡琳顿(《豪门恩怨》) 带来第一个冲击 墨菲・布朗因为她单身母亲的身份 而被一位副总统(丹・奎尔)批判 这个时代的母亲 Bree Van de Kamp 现在我也不确定是那个魔鬼还是天使 坐在我们的良知上 坐在电视的肩膀上 但我知道我喜欢这个图片
So to you all, the women of TEDWomen, the men of TEDWomen, the global audiences of TEDWomen, thank you for letting me present my idea about the conscience of television. But let me also thank the incredible creators who get up everyday to put their ideas on our television screens throughout all these ages of television. They give it life on television, for sure, but it's you as viewers, through your collective social consciences, that give it life, longevity, power or not.
所以向左右人 TEDWomen的女士们,TEDWomen的男士们 TEDWomen的全球观众 谢谢给我这个机会说出我的 关于电视良知的观点 也请允许我感谢了不起的制作人 在电视时代的这么多年里 他们每一天 将新点子放到电视荧屏上去 他们将生命献给电视事业 但,是作为观众的你们 通过社会的集体意识 给予了电视生命,存在 力量,
So thanks very much.
非常感谢
(Applause)
(鼓掌)