I'm going to try to give you a view of the world as I see it, the problems and the opportunities that we face, and then ask the question if we should be optimistic or pessimistic. And then I'll let you in on a secret, which is why I am an incurable optimist. Let me start off showing you an Al Gore movie that you may have seen before. Now, you've all seen "Inconvenient Truth." This is a little more inconvenient.
我要跟大家分享一下我眼里的世界 我们所面临的问题以及现存的机遇 接着我会提出我们应当做乐观主义者还是悲观主义者这个问题 而后我会告诉大家一个秘密,就是我为何会成为一个不可救药的乐观主义者 我们还是从戈尔(美国前副总统)的影片开始,你们有些人看过了 大家都看过《不可忽视的真相》,但是这一个剪辑片段也许让你感到更加不舒服
(Video): Man: ... extremely dangerous questions. Because, with our present knowledge, we have no idea what would happen. Even now, man may be unwittingly changing the world's climate through the waste products of his civilization. Due to our release, through factories and automobiles every year, of more than six billion tons of carbon dioxide -- which helps air absorb heat from the sun -- our atmosphere seems to be getting warmer. This is bad? Well, it's been calculated a few degrees' rise in the earth's temperature would melt the polar ice caps. And if this happens, an inland sea would fill a good portion of the Mississippi Valley. Tourists in glass-bottomed boats would be viewing the drowned towers of Miami through 150 feet of tropical water. For, in weather, we're not only dealing with forces of a far greater variety than even the atomic physicist encounters, but with life itself.
(视频)……这是极端危险的问题。 因为,按照我们现有的知识,我们根本就无从得知到底会发生什么 即便是今天,人类也许就已经在不经意中改变了地球的气候 这都来源于人类文明所创造的废物 每一年,工厂以及汽车尾气所排出的CO2 总数为60亿吨 这就使得大气更多的吸收来自太阳的热量 我们的大气层也因而正变得温暖起来 这是坏消息吗? 据估算,即使是地表温度升高几度 都足以使得两极的冰川融化 假如真的发生这样的情况,那么流入内陆的海水将淹没密西西比谷地的大部分地区 那时候,乘坐着玻璃底的游客也将可以看到迈阿密那里浸没的塔楼 那时候,迈阿密河的河水深度将达150英尺 我们将遇到比以往任何时候都更多样的气候 此外就是看到更多不同的生物
Larry Brilliant: Should we feel good, or should we feel bad that 50 years of foreknowledge accomplished so little? Well, it depends, really, on what your goals are. And I think, as my goals, I always go back to Gandhi's talisman. When Mahatma Gandhi was asked, "How do you know if the next act that you are about to do is the right one or the wrong one?" he said, "Consider the face of the poorest, most vulnerable human being that you ever chanced upon, and ask yourself if the act that you contemplate will be of benefit to that person. And if it will be, it's the right thing to do, and if not, rethink it."
看完这个,我们是应当感到高兴,还是应当感到悲伤? 我们50年前就已经预测到这样的结果,但我们却没做任何干预? 这个嘛,要看你到底是要达到什么样的目的 我认为,至少我自己会回到甘地的talisman那里 那时候,有人问 你如何判断你所做的下一步是正确的还是错误的? 甘地的回答是,“你要考虑那些最贫穷 最无力的人 然后问自己,你所做的事情是否会让他们受益。 假如是,那就是好事。假如不是,你就要重新思考了。
For those of us in this room, it's not just the poorest and the most vulnerable individual, it's the community, it's the culture, it's the world itself. And the trends for those who are at the periphery of our society, who are the poorest and the most vulnerable, the trends give rise to a great case for pessimism. But there's also a wonderful case for optimism. Let's review them both. First of all, the megatrends. There's two degrees, or three degrees of climate change baked into the system. It will cause rising seas. It will cause saline deposited into wells and into lands. It will disproportionately harm the poorest and the most vulnerable, as will the increasing rise of population. Even though we've dodged Paul Ehrlich's population bomb, and we will not see 20 billion people in this decade, as he had forecast, we eat as if we were 20 billion. And we consume so much that again, a rise of 6.5 billion to 9.5 billion in our grandchildren's lifetime will disproportionately hurt the poorest and the most vulnerable.
而对于我们这个房间里的人而言,我们要考虑的不单是最贫穷、最无力的人 我们要考虑整一个社区、文化以及整个世界 以及那些生活在我们都市边缘的人们 他们往往是最贫穷、最无力的 这一切,也许就会让我们感到无尽的悲观 但与此同时,我们也看到了一片美好的乐观图景 我们分别谈谈这两方面。首先,从大趋势来看, 现在有2到3摄氏度的升温是必然的 这将会导致海平面上升,海水倒灌 使得穷人以及无力者受到最大的伤害 还有就是人口数量依然会增长 虽然我们有幸逃过了Paul Ehrlich所预言的“人口爆炸”的危机 至少在这个十年里,地球上不会出现200亿人 但我们所消耗的食物数量与200亿人相当 我们所消费的东西是如此之多,因此,到了我们的孙辈那一代, 人口将上升到65到95亿, 那将使得最穷的人以及最无力的人成为最大的输家
That's why they migrate to cities. That's why in June of this year, we passed, as a species, 51 percent of us living in cities, and bustees, and slums, and shantytowns. The rural areas are no longer producing as much food as they did. The green revolution never reached Africa. And with desertification, sandstorms, the Gobi Desert, the Ogaden, we are finding increasing difficulty of a hectare to produce as many calories as it did even 15 years ago.
这就是他们迁往城市的原因 今年6月,有51%的人居住在城市和贫民窟里, 这是人类这一物种的第一次 农村地区不再如往常那样出产大量的粮食 绿色革命未曾惠及非洲 还有就是沙漠化、沙尘暴、戈壁滩、Ogaden 我们现在很难找到一小块可以耕作,并且 可以产生出跟15年前一样多粮食的土地
So humans are turning more towards animal consumption. In Africa last year, Africans ate 600 million wild animals, and consumed two billion kilograms of bush meat. And every kilogram of bush meat contained hundreds of thousands of novel viruses that have never been charted, the genomic sequences of which we don't know. Their fitness for creating pandemics we are unaware of, but we are ripe for zoonotic-borne, emerging communicable diseases.
另外,人类也越来越喜欢吃肉 单是去年一年,非洲人就吃掉了6亿头野生动物 还吃掉了20亿公斤的丛林肉 每一公斤的丛林肉都包含数以万计的新型病菌 它们以前从未被监测到过,我们也还不知道它们的基因组图 也许它们可以成为新型流行病的温床 我们即将要面对的,就是诞生于热带地区、易于传播的各种新型疾病
Increasingly, I would say explosive growth of technology. Most of us are the beneficiaries of that growth. But it has a dark side -- in bioweapons, and in technology that puts us on a collision course to magnify any anger, hatred or feeling of marginalization. And in fact, with increasing globalization -- for which there are big winners and even bigger losers -- today the world is more diverse and unfair than perhaps it has ever been in history.
还有,随着技术的爆炸式增长 我们这里大多数人都是这一增长的受益者。但是,这样的增长也是存在黑暗点的 生物武器以及其他足以助长人们之间的 仇恨、怨怒以及使得部分人被边缘化的形式 随着全球化进程之加速, 这一进程将伴随着巨大的赢家以及更多的输家 今日之世界比以往任何时候都更加多元也更加不公平
One percent of us own 40 percent of all the goods and services. What will happen if the billion people today who live on less than one dollar a day rise to three billion in the next 30 years? The one percent will own even more than 40 percent of all the world's goods and services. Not because they've grown richer, but because the rest of the world has grown increasingly poorer. Last week, Bill Clinton at the TED Awards said, "This situation is unprecedented, unequal, unfair and unstable."
1%的人口占有了40%的资源以及服务 假如在未来30年内,那些生活在贫困线底下的人口数量 从10亿上升到30亿,会发生些什么? 那么1%的人将占有多于40%的资源及服务 事实上不是他们变得更富裕了 而是因为世界别的地区的人正变得越来越贫穷 上周,克林顿在TED大奖获奖感言里说 “这样一种情况是前所未有的、不公平的、不公正的,也不稳定的。”
So there's lots of reason for pessimism. Darfur is, at its origin, a resource war. Last year, there were 85,000 riots in China, 230 a day, that required police or military intervention. Most of them were about resources. We are facing an unprecedented number, scale of disasters. Some are weather-related, human-rights related, epidemics. And the newly emerging diseases may make H5N1 and bird flu a quaint forerunner of things to come. It's a destabilized world. And unlike destabilized world in the past, it will be broadcast to you on YouTube, you will see it on digital television and on your cell phones. What will that lead to? For some, it will lead to anger, religious and sectarian violence and terrorism. For others, withdrawal, nihilism, materialism. For us, where does it take us, as social activists and entrepreneurs? As we look at these trends, do we become despondent, or will we become energized?
因此,持悲观主义的心态似乎是有充分的理由 达尔富尔危机从本质上说就是一场资源争夺战 去年一年,中国发生了85000起的骚乱 平均每天230起是需要武力进行干涉的 其中大部分都是为了争夺资源 我们正面对前所未有的危机 有些是关乎天气的,有些是关乎人的 而那些新兴的疾病将会使得H5N1以及禽流感相形见绌 它们不过是更大型病毒之前奏而已。这确实是一个不安宁的世界。 与过往的那些不安宁事件不一样的是,如今这个世界所发生的一切都将通过YouTube直播到你的桌面 你将会在数字电视以及手机上看到实况转播 这将带来什么后果? 对有些人而言,将意味着愤怒,宗教或非宗教的暴力以及恐怖主义 对于其他人而言,将意味着退却、虚无以及拜物主义 但对于我们这些社会活动家以及企业家而言,这将意味着什么? 看到这样的趋势,我们是变得沮丧,还是变得倍受鼓舞?
Let's look at one case, the case of Bangladesh. First, even if carbon dioxide emissions stopped today, global warming would continue. And even with global warming -- if you can see these blue lines, the dotted line shows that even if emissions of greenhouse gasses stopped today, the next decades will see rising sea levels. A minimum of 20 to 30 inches of increase in sea levels is the best case that we can hope for, and it could be 10 times that. What will that do to Bangladesh? Let's take a look. So here's Bangladesh. 70 percent of Bangladesh is at less than five feet above sea level. Let's go up and take a look at the Himalayas. And we'll watch as global warming makes them melt. More water comes down, the deforested areas, here in the Tarai, will be unable to absorb the effluent, because trees are like straws that suck up the extra seasonal water. Now we're looking down south, through the Kali Gandaki. Many of you, I think, have probably trekked here. And we're going to cruise down and take a look at Bangladesh and see what the impact will be of twin increases in water coming from the north, and in the seas rising from the south. Looking at the five major rivers that feed Bangladesh. And now let's look from the south, looking up, and let's see this in relief. A minimum of 20 to 40 inches of increase in seas, coupled with increasing flows from the Himalayas. And take a look at this. As many as 100 million refugees from Bangladesh could be expected to migrate into India and into China. This is the difficulty that one country faces.
我们来看看孟加拉的例子吧。 首先,即使人类的CO2排放于今天停止, 全球变暖的趋势依然会继续 大家可以看到那些蓝色的线条 假使温室气体的排放今天就完全中止 我们在下一个十年将依然会看到海平面的上升 最保守的估计是有20到30英寸的上升 但事实可能是那个的10倍 这会给孟加拉带来什么变化? 我们不妨看看,这里就是孟加拉, 该国70%的国土海拔仅仅为五英尺 我们来看看喜马拉雅山 我们看看喜马拉雅山因气候变暖而出现冰川融化的情景。雨水越来越多 积聚在森林消失的地方。在Tarai一地,那里的土地将不能吸收雨水 因为树木可以像秸秆那样吸收多余的雨水并且贮存起来的 好,我们再透过 Kali Gandaki 看看南部的地区 我想你们当中很多人应当是徒步去到过那里 我们就一直往南走,直到孟加拉 我们看看这里会发生什么:北部的冰川融水会不断的增多 同时,南部的海水也在不断的上涨 再看看途径孟加拉的五大河流 再从南往北看,看看这个三维的图像 我们将发现,这里的海面会有20到40英寸的上升 还有来自喜马拉雅的融水。再看看这里 将会有一亿的难民从孟加拉 逃难到印度和中国 这就是其中一个国家即将面临的难题
But if you look at the globe, all around the earth, wherever there is low-lying area, populated areas near the water, you will find increase in sea level that will challenge our way of life. Sub-Saharan Africa, and even our own San Francisco Bay Area. We're all in this together. This is not something that happens far away to people that we don't know. Global warming is something that happens to all of us, all at once.
假如你放眼全球,看看那些低洼地带 看看那些河岸线上的人口密集的地区 你会看到,海平面之上涨会改变我们的生活 不管是在撒哈拉以南的沙漠还是在我们这里的旧金山湾区 我们可谓同济共舟 这不是只会影响到一些边远地区的人的事件 它是会在我们每一个人身上发生的事情
As are these newly emerging communicable diseases, names that you hadn't heard 20 years ago: ebola, lhasa fever, monkey pox. With the erosion of the green belt separating animals from humans, we live in each other's viral environment. Do you remember, 20 years ago, no one had ever heard of West Nile fever? And then we watched, as one case arrived on the East Coast of the United States and it marched every year, westwardly. Do you remember no one had heard of ebola until we heard of hundreds of people dying in Central Africa from it? It's just the beginning, unfortunately. There have been 30 novel emerging communicable diseases that begin in animals that have jumped species in the last 30 years. It's more than enough reason for pessimism.
同样会发生的就是这些传染病 这些名字你20年前还不会听说过:伊博拉、拉萨热、猴痘 还有,随着人与动物之间的那段绿色保护带在逐渐消失 我们就生活在每一个人的病毒环境里 你能想象吗,20年前,还没有人会听说过西尼罗河热呢! 接着,我们就看到第一例感染个案出现在美国东海岸 其后每一年都逐渐西移 你知道吗?在我们听说中非有数百人因为感染这一病毒而死亡之前 没有人听说过这个病毒! 不幸的是,这一切都仅仅是开始 过去30年,出现了30种新型传染病毒 都是最先出现在动物身上,而后传到人体的 看来使人悲观的事情还非常多
But now let's look at the case for optimism. (Laughter) Enough of the bad news. Human beings have always risen to the challenge. You just need to look at the list of Nobel laureates to remind ourselves. We've been here before, paralyzed by fear, paralyzed into inaction, when some -- probably one of you in this room -- jumped into the breach and created an organization like Physicians for Social Responsibility, which fought against the nuclear threat, Medicins Sans Frontieres, that renewed our commitment to disaster relief, Mohamed ElBaradei, and the tremendous hope and optimism that he brought all of us, and our own Muhammad Yunus.
但我们还是来看一下乐观的理由吧 坏消息?够多了。人类总会勇于面对挑战 看看诺贝尔奖获得者的名单就可以理解这点 我们过去不也曾遇到同类困境吗?我们被恐惧吓坏了,不行动 但有些人——也许就是你们其中一些人——则不顾这么多 就创立了一个像“物理学家社会责任协会”这样的组织 你们站起来对抗核子威胁 还有医生无国界,它继承了我们紧急救援的传统 还有国际原子能机构总干事巴拉迪,他的希望与乐观 还有尤奴斯
We've seen the eradication of smallpox. We may see the eradication of polio this year. Last year, there were only 2,000 cases in the world. We may see the eradication of guinea worm next year -- there are only 35,000 cases left in the world. 20 years ago, there were three and a half million. And we've seen a new disease, not like the 30 novel emerging communicable diseases. This disease is called sudden wealth syndrome. (Laughter) It's an amazing phenomenon. All throughout the technology world, we're seeing young people bitten by this disease of sudden wealth syndrome. But they're using their wealth in a way that their forefathers never did. They're not waiting until they die to create foundations. They're actively guiding their money, their resources, their hearts, their commitments, to make the world a better place. Certainly, nothing can give you more optimism than that.
我们亲眼看到了天花之消失 我们也许今年就会看到小儿麻痹症被消灭 去年,全世界就只有2000例 明年,也许我们就能看到几内亚虫被消灭 现在世界上只剩下35000个感染个案了 20年前,有350万的人感染这一病毒 我们也认识了一些新的传染病,它跟过去30年出现的流行传染病不大一样 它的名字叫“暴富综合症”(笑) 这是一个相当有趣的现象 环顾科技界,我们看到了许多的年轻人 正是被这一综合症所感染 但他们花费金钱的方式是其父辈从未想到的 他们不会等到临死才去创立基金会 他们正在将自己的金钱、资源、心血以及热忱 贡献出来,为的是让世界变得更好 可以说,没有别的东西可以给你更大的乐观情绪了
More reasons to be optimistic: in the '60s, and I am a creature of the '60s, there was a movement. We all felt that we were part of it, that a better world was right around the corner, that we were watching the birth of a world free of hatred and violence and prejudice. Today, there's another kind of movement. It's a movement to save the earth. It's just beginning. Five weeks ago, a group of activists from the business community gathered together to stop a Texas utility from building nine coal-fired electrical plants that would have contributed to destroying the environment. Six months ago, a group of business activists gathered together to join with the Republican governor in California to pass AB 32, the most far-reaching legislation in environmental history.
还有更多使你乐观的理由 60年代的时候发生过一场运动,我就是那时候长大的 我们都认为自己是其中的一部分,我们认为一个更加美好的世界就在前面 我们创造的是一个没有仇恨、暴力以及偏见的世界 今天,我们看到了另外一场运动。这场运动的目的在于拯救地球 如今才刚开始 五个星期之前,来自商业界的一班活跃人士聚集到一起 阻止德州电力局修建9座煤炭电力电厂 因为那种电力生产模式会破坏环境 6个月前,又是一班商业界的活跃人士 支持加州州长通过了AB 32法案 这是环境运动史上最具深远意义的法案
Al Gore made presentations in the House and the Senate as an expert witness. Can you imagine? (Laughter) We're seeing an entente cordiale between science and religion that five years ago I would not have believed, as the evangelical community has understood the desperate situation of global warming. And now 4,000 churches have joined the environmental movement. It is something to be greatly optimistic about. The European 20-20-20 plan is an amazing breakthrough, something that should make all of us feel that hope is on the horizon. And on April 14th, there will be Step Up Day, where there will be a thousand individual mobilized social activist movements in the United States on protest against legislation -- pushing for legislation to stop global warming. And on July 7th, around the world, I learned only yesterday, there will be global Live Earth concerts. And you can feel this optimistic move to save the earth in the air.
戈尔以专家身份在参众两院作证 你能想象这一切吗?(笑) 我们看到了科学与宗教走向联合 因为他们都看到了气候变暖之严峻 这在几年前又是不可思议的 现在有4000座教堂加入了环保运动的行列 这又是值得乐观的 欧盟的20-20-20计划又是一个伟大的突破 它让我们看到了地平线上希望的曙光 4月14日,将会是行动日 美国将有数千活跃人士自发的发起 游行,声援关于阻止气候变暖的立法 我昨天得知,7月7日,在世界各地 将会有一场Live Earth音乐会 你甚至可以感受到空气中的这股拯救地球气氛
Now, that doesn't mean that people understand that global warming hurts the poorest and the weakest the most. That means that people are beginning the first step, which is acting out of their own self-interest. But I am seeing in the major funders, in CARE, Rockefeller, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Hewlett, Mercy Corps, you guys, Google, so many other organizations, a beginning of understanding that we need to work not just on primary prevention of global warming, but on the secondary prevention of the consequences of global warming on the poorest and the most vulnerable.
但所有这一切并不意味着他们都理解一点 即气候变暖的最大受害者是穷人以及弱势群体 这一切仅仅表明人们正在迈出第一步 也就是为了维护自身的利益而奋起抗争 但我同时也看到了一些大的基金会,如CARE, 洛克菲勒基金会 洛克菲勒兄弟基金会、Hewlett, Mercy Corps, 以及Google基金会 都开始认识到一点 即我们不能单单为了防止气候变暖而抗争 而且要为气候变暖带来的后果作准备 特别是因为这样的后果对于穷人以及弱势群体影响是最大的
But for me, I have another reason to be an incurable optimist. And you've heard so many inspiring stories here, and I heard so many last night that I thought I would share a little bit of mine. My background is not exactly conventional medical training. And I lived in a Himalayan monastery, and I studied with a very wise teacher, who kicked me out of the monastery one day and told me that it was my destiny -- it felt like Yoda -- it is your destiny to go to work for WHO and to help eradicate smallpox, at a time when there was no smallpox program.
但对于我自己而言,我还有别的让我感到乐观的理由 你们在这里听说了很多有趣的故事,我昨晚就听到很多个 这里我想分享一下我自己 的故事 我不是学医出身的 我曾住在喜马拉雅山的寺庙里,从师与一位非常智慧的人 有一天,他把我带到寺庙外,告诉我, 我的使命就是为世卫工作 帮助他们消灭天花 那时候还没有此类项目
It should make you optimistic that smallpox no longer exists because it was the worst disease in history. In the last century -- that's the one that was seven years ago -- half a billion people died from smallpox: more than all the wars in history, more than any other infectious disease in the history of the world. In the Summer of Love, in 1967, two million people, children, died of smallpox. It's not ancient history. When you read the biblical plague of boils, that was smallpox. Pharaoh Ramses the Fifth, whose picture is here, died of smallpox. To eradicate smallpox, we had to gather the largest United Nations army in history. We visited every house in India, searching for smallpox -- 120 million houses, once every month, for nearly two years. In a cruel reversal, after we had almost conquered smallpox -- and this is what you must learn as a social entrepreneur, the realm of the final inch.
今天,我们确实达到了这一目的,这让我充满乐观的信心 因为天花曾经是最恶毒的一种疾病之一 就在上个世纪--也就是7年前 有5亿人因为感染天花而死 这一数字比历史上所有因为战争死亡的人数还要多 也比任何其他感染性疾病带来的死亡个案更高 1967年夏季,有两百万人因为感染天花而死 天花由来已久 你阅读《圣经》的时候,你读到灼伤的章节,就应当知道那是在讲天花感染 Ramses法老就是因为感染天花而死的 为了消灭天花,我们召集了联合国史上最大的一支部队 我们在印度逐家逐户去敲门,询问是否有人感染天花,一共有1.2亿户人家 每个月一次,连续进行了两年 在我们马上要消灭天花的一个关键时刻 这也是你作为一个社会企业家应当学习的,就是到了最后的那一个拐点上该怎么做
When we had almost eradicated smallpox, it came back again, because the company town of Tatanagar drew laborers, who could come there and get employment. And they caught smallpox in the one remaining place that had smallpox, and they went home to die. And when they did, they took smallpox to 10 other countries and reignited the epidemic. And we had to start all over again. But, in the end, we succeeded, and the last case of smallpox: this little girl, Rahima Banu -- Barisal, in Bangladesh -- when she coughed or breathed, and the last virus of smallpox left her lungs and fell on the dirt and the sun killed that last virus, thus ended a chain of transmission of history's greatest horror.
当我们马上就要消灭天花的时候,它又重新猖獗起来 原因在于 Tatanagar 镇吸引了大批的劳工 他们来到那里寻找工作 不幸的是,他们在一个未曾消灭天花的地方感染了这个病 而后回到家里等待死亡 一路上把病毒带到了其他十个国家 使得病毒死灰复燃 我们不得不重新开始 但我们最后还是胜利了,最后的一例天花: 就是这个女孩,她叫Rahima Banu 她住在孟加拉的巴里萨尔市 当她通过咳嗽将最后一个天花病毒吐出口中 病毒落到地面,被太阳晒死 这意味着历史上最可怕的病毒感染宣告终结
How can that not make you optimistic? A disease which killed hundreds of thousands in India, and blinded half of all of those who were made blind in India, ended. And most importantly for us here in this room, a bond was created. Doctors, health workers, from 30 different countries, of every race, every religion, every color, worked together, fought alongside each other, fought against a common enemy, didn't fight against each other. How can that not make you feel optimistic for the future? Thank you very much. (Applause)
听到这样的故事,你难道会不感到乐观吗? 这个病毒单在印度就夺去了成千上万人的生命, 还有那个使得许许多多人失明的病毒也消失了 对于我们而言,最重要的是我们建立了一种联系 来自30多个国家、不同种族、不同宗教信仰、不同肤色、 的医生、医疗工作者并肩工作 合力对抗病菌 万万没应对共同的敌人,我们不是内斗 这样的事情难道不会让你对未来充满信心吗? 感谢大家。 (鼓掌)