Yogi Berra, a US baseball player and philosopher, said, "If we don't know where we're going, we might not get there." Accumulating scientific knowledge is giving us greater insights, greater clarity, into what our future might look like in a changing climate and what that could mean for our health. I'm here to talk about a related aspect, on how our emissions of greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels is reducing the nutritional quality of our food.
美國棒球球員及哲學家 尤吉·貝拉說過: 「若我們不知道要去哪裡 就可能到不了那裡。」 累積的科學知識讓我們 有更深入更清楚的洞見, 了解在變遷的氣候之下 我們的未來可能會變成什麼樣子, 及氣候變遷對我們健康意味著什麼。 我來這裡是要談一個相關的面向, 談燃燒化石燃料造成的溫室氣體排放 會如何讓我們食物的營養品質下降。
We'll start with the food pyramid. You all know the food pyramid. We all need to eat a balanced diet. We need to get proteins, we need to get micronutrients, we need to get vitamins. And so, this is a way for us to think about how to make sure we get what we need every day so we can grow and thrive.
我們先從食物金字塔開始。 大家都知道食物金字塔。 我們都需要均衡的飲食。 我們需要取得蛋白質, 需要取得微量營養素, 需要取得維生素。所以, 我們可以用這種方式來思考 我們要如何確保我們 能夠得到每日所需, 讓我們成長茁壯。
But we eat not just because we need to, we also eat for enjoyment. Bread, pasta, pizza -- there's a whole range of foods that are culturally important. We enjoy eating these. And so they're important for our diet, but they're also important for our cultures.
但,我們不只是因為 我們需要吃而吃, 我們了為了享受而吃。 麵包、義大利麵、比薩—— 有一大堆食物在文化上 有很高的重要性。 我們享受吃這些食物。 所以,它們對我們的飲食很重要, 但它們也對我們的文化很重要。
Carbon dioxide has been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution, increasing from about 280 parts per million to over 410 today, and it continues to increase. The carbon that plants need to grow comes from this carbon dioxide. They bring it into the plant, they break it apart into the carbon itself, and they use that to grow. They also need nutrients from the soil. And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.
從工業革命之後 二氧化碳濃度就一直在上升, 從 280 ppm 上升到 現在的 410 ppm 以上, 且還在持續上升。 植物生長需要的碳 來自這種二氧化碳。 空氣中的二氧化碳進入植物中分解, 然後植物會靠那碳來生長。 植物也需要來自土壤的營養。 所以,二氧化碳確是植物的食物。
And this should be good news, of rising carbon dioxide concentrations, for food security around the world, making sure that people get enough to eat every day. About 820 million people in the world don't get enough to eat every day. So there's a fair amount written about how higher CO2 is going to help with our food security problem. We need to accelerate our progress in agricultural productivity to feed the nine to 10 billion people who will be alive in 2050 and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly the Goal Number 2, that is on reducing food insecurity, increasing nutrition, increasing access to the foods that we need for everyone. We know that climate change is affecting agricultural productivity. The earth has warmed about one degree centigrade since preindustrial times. That is changing local temperature and precipitation patterns, and that has consequences for the agricultural productivity in many parts of the world. And it's not just local changes in temperature and precipitation, it's the extremes. Extremes in terms of heat waves, floods and droughts are significantly affecting productivity.
對於確保世界的糧食來說, 二氧化碳濃度增加應該是好消息, 因為能確保大家每天 有足夠的食物可吃。 全世界大約有八億兩千萬人 每天沒有足夠的食物可吃。 所以,更高濃度的二氧化碳的確可以 協助我們解決糧食安全問題。 我們需要加速我們 在農業生產力的進展, 才能在 2050 年的時候 讓九十到一百億人有食物可吃, 且能達成永續發展目標, 特別是第二個目標, 也就是降低糧食的不安全系數, 增加糧食營養, 增加人人所需要的食物的可攝取性。 我們知道氣候變遷 會影響農業生產力。 和工業革命之前相比, 地球溫度已經變暖了約攝氏一度。 那意味著地方溫度 和降雨模式會改變, 就會對農業生產力造成影響, 在世界許多地方皆是如此。 問題並不只是在地方的 溫度和降雨改變, 還有極端氣候。 比如熱浪、洪水、乾旱, 都會顯著影響農業生產力。
And that carbon dioxide, besides making plants grow, has other consequences as well, that plants, when they have higher carbon dioxide, increase the synthesis of carbohydrates, sugars and starches, and they decrease the concentrations of protein and critical nutrients. And this is very important for how we think about food security going forward.
且二氧化碳 除了讓植物生長之外, 還有其他後果, 當植物有比較高的二氧化碳時, 碳水化合物、糖、 澱粉的合成會增加, 它們會減少蛋白質 和重要營養物的合成。 這點對於糧食安全的 前景十分重要。
A couple of nights ago in the table talks on climate change, someone said that they're a five-sevenths optimist: that they're an optimist five days of the week, and this is a topic for the other two days.
幾天前的晚上,在關於 氣候變遷的座談會中, 有人說他屬於 七分之五的樂觀主義者: 一週七天中有五天是樂觀主義者, 而氣候變遷這個主題, 是針對剩下的那兩天的。
When we think about micronutrients, almost all of them are affected by higher CO2 concentrations. Two in particular are iron and zinc. When you don't have enough iron, you can develop iron deficiency anemia. It's associated with fatigue, shortness of breath and some fairly serious consequences as well. When you don't have enough zinc, you can have a loss of appetite. It is a significant problem around the world. There's about one billion people who are zinc deficient. It's very important for maternal and child health. It affects development. The B vitamins are critical for a whole range of reasons. They help convert our food into energy. They're important for the functions of many of the physiologic activities in our bodies. And when you have higher carbon in a plant, you have less nitrogen, and you have less B vitamins.
想想看微量營養素, 它們幾乎全部都會被 上升的二氧化碳濃度給影響。 特別會被影響的是鐵和鋅。 當你的鐵不夠時,就可能 會發展出缺鐵性貧血。 它也可能會造成疲勞、呼吸短促, 以及一些很嚴重的後果。 當你的鋅不夠時, 你可能會失去食慾。 這是全世界都存在的重大問題。 大約有十億人的鋅不足。 鋅對於母親和孩子的健康 也有很大的影響。 它會影響成長。 維生素 B 群很重要,理由很多。 它們能協助將我們的 食物轉換為能量。 它們會影響到 我們身體中的許多生理活動功能。 當植物中的碳比較高時, 氮就會比較少, 維生素 B 群就會比較少。
And it's not just us. Cattle are already being affected because the quality of their forage is declining. In fact, this affects every consumer of plants. And give a thought to, for example, our pet cats and dogs. If you look on the label of most of the pet and dog food, there's a significant amount of grain in those foods. So this affects everyone.
不只是我們人類。 牛已經因為其糧草的品質下降 而受到影響。 事實上,所有草食動物 都會受到影響。 比如,想想我們的寵物貓和狗。 如果你去看大部分 寵物食物和狗食的標籤, 會看到成份包括有 大量的穀物含量。 所以大家都會受到影響。
How do we know that this is a problem? We know from field studies and we know from experimental studies in laboratories. In the field studies -- and I'll focus primarily on wheat and on rice -- there's fields, for example, of rice that are divided into different plots. And the plots are all the same: the soil's the same, the precipitation's the same -- everything's the same. Except carbon dioxide is blown over some of the plots. And so you can compare what it looks like under today's conditions and under carbon dioxide conditions later in the century.
我們如何知道這是個問題? 從實地研究可以得知, 從實驗室中的 實驗研究也可以得知。 在實地研究中—— 我把焦點主要放在小麥和稻米—— 比如,有一些稻米田 被分割為不同的小區塊。 這些小區塊完全相同: 土壤相同、 降雨相同—— 一切條件都相同。 只差在研究者將二氧化碳 釋放在某些小區塊上。 這樣就可以比較 在現今的條件之下 以及在下半世紀的二氧化碳 條件下會有什麼差別。
I was part of one of the few studies that have done this. We looked at 18 rice lines in China and in Japan and grew them under conditions that you would expect later in the century. And when you look at the results, the white bar is today's conditions, the red bar is conditions later in the century. So protein declines about 10 percent, iron about eight percent, zinc about five percent. These don't sound like really big changes, but when you start thinking about the poor in every country who primarily eat starch, that this will put people who are on the edge over the edge into frank deficiencies, creating all kinds of health problems.
有少數幾個這類的研究, 我參與了其中一個。 我們去研究中國 和日本的十八種稻米, 在預期下半世紀的二氧化碳條件之下 種植它們。 來看看結果, 白色長條是現今的條件, 紅色長條是下半世紀的條件。 蛋白質下降了大約 10%, 鐵下降大約 8%,鋅下降大約 5%。 聽起來改變並不大, 但,想想看每個國家的窮人, 他們吃的主要就是澱粉, 這會讓已經在營養缺乏邊緣的人 跨過這條線,真的缺乏營養, 導致各種健康問題。
The situation is more significant for the B vitamins. When you look at vitamin B1 and vitamin B2, there's about a 17 percent decline. Pantothenic acid, vitamin B5, is about a 13 percent decline. Folate is about a 30 percent decline. And these are averages over the various experiments that were done. Folate is critical for child development. Pregnant women who don't get enough folate are at much higher risk of having babies with birth defects. So these are very serious potential consequences for our health as CO2 continues to rise.
維生素 B 群的狀況比較嚴重。 看看維生素 B1 和 B2, 下降了約 17%。 泛酸,也就是維生素 B5, 下降了約 13%。 葉酸下降了約 30%。 這些數字是各項實驗 得到的平均值。 葉酸對孩童發展很重要。 懷孕的女性若沒有足夠的葉酸, 會有更高的風險 生出有缺陷的寶寶。 如果二氧化碳持續上升, 這些都是很嚴重的潛在健康後果。
In another example, this is modeling work that was done by Chris Weyant and his colleagues, taking a look at this chain from higher CO2 to lower iron and zinc -- and they only looked at iron and zinc -- to various health outcomes. They looked at malaria, diarrheal disease, pneumonia, iron deficiency anemia, and looked at what the consequences could be in 2050. And the darker the color in this, the larger the consequences. So you can see the major impacts in Asia and in Africa, but also note that in countries such as the United States and countries in Europe, the populations also could be affected. They estimated about 125 million people could be affected. They also modeled what would be the most effective interventions, and their conclusion was reducing our greenhouse gases: getting our greenhouse gas emissions down by mid-century so we don't have to worry so much about these consequences later in the century.
再舉一個例子, 這是克里斯·韋揚 和他的同事所建的模型, 看的是二氧化碳的提升 如何連結到鐵及鋅的下降—— 他們只研究了鐵和鋅—— 再如何連結到健康結果。 他們觀察到的疾病有 瘧疾、腹瀉、肺炎、 缺鐵性貧血, 並去研究在 2050 年 會有什麼後果。 圖上比較深的顏色 表示後果比較嚴重。 這樣各位就可以看出 亞洲和非洲的衝擊最大, 但也請注意一下像美國這類國家, 還有歐洲的國家, 這些地方的居民也可能被影響。 他們估計會有大約 一億兩千五百萬人被影響。 他們也建模來研究 最有效的干預方式是什麼, 他們的結論是, 減少我們的溫室氣體: 在這個世紀中時要將 我們的溫室氣體排放降低, 這樣在下半世紀 我們才不用太擔心這些後果。
These experiments, these modeling studies did not take climate change itself into account. They just focused on the carbon dioxide component. So when you put the two together, it's expected the impact is much larger than what I've told you.
這些實驗,這些建模研究, 並沒有把氣候變遷納入考量。 它們只把焦點放在 二氧化碳這個元素。 如果把這兩者拼湊起來, 衝擊會比我剛才告訴 各位的還要大很多。
I'd love to be able to tell you right now how much the food you had for breakfast, the food you're going to have for lunch, has shifted from what your grandparents ate in terms of its nutritional quality. But I can't. We don't have the research on that. I'd love to tell you how much current food insecurity is affected by these changes. But I can't. We don't have the research on that, either. There's a lot that needs to be known in this area, including what the possible solutions could be. We don't know exactly what those solutions are, but we've got a range of options. We've got advancements in technologies. We've got plant breeding. We've got biofortification. Soils could make a difference. And, of course, it will be very helpful to know how these changes could affect our future health and the health of our children and the health of our grandchildren. And these investments take time. It will take time to sort all of these issues out. There is no national entity or business group that is funding this research. We need these investments critically so that we do know where we're going.
我很希望現在能告訴大家, 你們在早餐時吃了多少食物, 等下在午餐要吃多少食物, 和你們的祖父母所吃的 在營養品質上有什麼不同。 但我沒辦法。 我們沒有那方面的研究。 我很想告訴各位,目前的糧食安全 受到這些改變的影響有多大。 但我沒辦法。 我們也沒有那方面的研究。 在這個領域中, 還有很多需要探究的, 包括有什麼可能的解決方案。 我們不清楚那些解決方案是什麼, 但我們有許多選項。 我們有科技的進步。 我們有植物育種。 我們有生物營養強化。 土壤也能造成不同。 當然,最好能夠知道 這些改變會如何影響 我們未來的健康、 我們孩子的健康, 及我們孫子孫女的健康。 這些投資都要花時間。 要理清這些議題都要花時間。 沒有國家實體或者企業集團 在資助這項研究。 我們迫切需要這些投資, 這樣我們才能知道 我們未來的方向。
In the meantime, what we can do is ensure that all people have access to a complete diet, not just those in the wealthy parts of the world but everywhere in the world. We also individually and collectively need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the challenges that will come later in the century.
在這期間,我們能做的就是 確保所有人都能攝取全面的飲食, 不僅是在世界上富裕地區的人, 而是全世界的人。 我們個人以及集體都需要 減少我們的溫室氣體排放, 減輕下半世紀會出現的挑戰。
It's been said that if you think education is expensive, try ignorance. Let's not. Let's invest in ourselves, in our children and in our planet.
有人說過,如果你覺得教育 很昂貴,試試無知的代價吧。 咱們別試吧。 咱們要投資我們自己, 投資我們的孩子, 投資我們的星球。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)