Yogi Berra, a US baseball player and philosopher, said, "If we don't know where we're going, we might not get there." Accumulating scientific knowledge is giving us greater insights, greater clarity, into what our future might look like in a changing climate and what that could mean for our health. I'm here to talk about a related aspect, on how our emissions of greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels is reducing the nutritional quality of our food.
Jogi Bera, američki igrač bejzbola i filozof, rekao je: „Ako ne znamo kuda idemo, možda tamo nećemo stići.“ Prikupljanje naučnog znanja nam daje bolji uvid i jasniju sliku o tome kako bi izgledala naša budućnost dok se klima menja i šta to može značiti za naše zdravlje. Ovde sam da pričam u vezi s tim, o tome kako gasovi staklene bašte nastali sagorevanjem fosilnih goriva smanjuju hranljivu vrednost hrane koju jedemo.
We'll start with the food pyramid. You all know the food pyramid. We all need to eat a balanced diet. We need to get proteins, we need to get micronutrients, we need to get vitamins. And so, this is a way for us to think about how to make sure we get what we need every day so we can grow and thrive.
Počnimo od piramide ishrane. Svima vam je poznata piramida ishrane. Svi treba da se zdravo hranimo. Moramo da unosimo proteine, mikronutrijente, vitamine. Ovo je jedan način razmišljanja o tome kako da se postaramo da dobijemo šta nam je potrebno svakog dana da rastemo i razvijamo se.
But we eat not just because we need to, we also eat for enjoyment. Bread, pasta, pizza -- there's a whole range of foods that are culturally important. We enjoy eating these. And so they're important for our diet, but they're also important for our cultures.
Ne hranimo se samo iz potrebe, već i uživamo u tome. Hleb, pasta, pica - postoji toliko vrsta hrane koje su od kulturološke važnosti. Uživamo da ih jedemo. Važne su za našu ishranu, ali i za našu kulturu.
Carbon dioxide has been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution, increasing from about 280 parts per million to over 410 today, and it continues to increase. The carbon that plants need to grow comes from this carbon dioxide. They bring it into the plant, they break it apart into the carbon itself, and they use that to grow. They also need nutrients from the soil. And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.
Nivo ugljen-dioksida raste od početka industrijske revolucije, od 280 milionitih delova do 410, koliko ih ima danas, i nastavlja da raste. Ugljenik potreban biljkama da rastu dolazi od ovog ugljen-dioksida. On dolazi do biljke, raspada se na samo ugljenik, a biljke ga koriste za rast. Takođe su im potrebne hranljive materije iz zemljišta. Dakle, ugljen-dioksid je hrana za biljke.
And this should be good news, of rising carbon dioxide concentrations, for food security around the world, making sure that people get enough to eat every day. About 820 million people in the world don't get enough to eat every day. So there's a fair amount written about how higher CO2 is going to help with our food security problem. We need to accelerate our progress in agricultural productivity to feed the nine to 10 billion people who will be alive in 2050 and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly the Goal Number 2, that is on reducing food insecurity, increasing nutrition, increasing access to the foods that we need for everyone. We know that climate change is affecting agricultural productivity. The earth has warmed about one degree centigrade since preindustrial times. That is changing local temperature and precipitation patterns, and that has consequences for the agricultural productivity in many parts of the world. And it's not just local changes in temperature and precipitation, it's the extremes. Extremes in terms of heat waves, floods and droughts are significantly affecting productivity.
Trebalo bi da su ovo dobre vesti, da koncentracija ugljen-dioksida raste, čime se obezbeđuje hrana širom sveta i pruža mogućnost ljudima da imaju dovoljno hrane svakog dana. Oko 820 miliona ljudi na svetu nema dovoljno hrane svakog dana. Postoji mnogo zapisa o tome kako će viši nivo ugljen-dioksida pomoći u obezbeđivanju hrane. Potrebno je da ubrzamo napredak u produktivnosti u poljoprivredi kako bi se nahranilo 9 do 10 milijardi ljudi, koliko će ih biti 2050. godine, i kako bi se postigli ciljevi održivog razvoja, naročito cilj broj 2, koji se tiče problema obezbeđivanja hrane, poboljšanja ishrane, povećanja dostupnosti hrane koja je potrebna svima. Znamo da klimatske promene utiču na produktivnost u poljoprivredi. Temperatura Zemlje je viša za 1 stepen u odnosu na preindustrijsko doba. Ovime se menjaju lokalne temperature i količine padavina, što utiče na produktivnost u poljoprivredi u mnogim delovima sveta. A ne radi se samo o lokalnim promenama u temperaturi i padavinama, već i o ekstremnim slučajevima. Esktremni su u vidu toplotnih talasa, poplava i suša, a koji umnogome utiču na produktivnost.
And that carbon dioxide, besides making plants grow, has other consequences as well, that plants, when they have higher carbon dioxide, increase the synthesis of carbohydrates, sugars and starches, and they decrease the concentrations of protein and critical nutrients. And this is very important for how we think about food security going forward.
I taj ugljen-dioksid, osim što pomaže biljkama da rastu, takođe ima druge posledice po biljke, a to je da one, kada dobijaju više ugljen-dioksida, povećavaju sintezu ugljenih hidrata, šećera i skroba, a smanjuju koncentraciju proteina i vrlo bitnih hranljivih materija. Ovo je vrlo važno za naš dalji plan u vezi sa obezbeđivanjem hrane.
A couple of nights ago in the table talks on climate change, someone said that they're a five-sevenths optimist: that they're an optimist five days of the week, and this is a topic for the other two days.
Pre par večeri povela se priča o klimatskim promenama, i neko je rekao da je optimista 5/7: optimista 5 dana u nedelji, a ovo je tema za preostala dva dana.
When we think about micronutrients, almost all of them are affected by higher CO2 concentrations. Two in particular are iron and zinc. When you don't have enough iron, you can develop iron deficiency anemia. It's associated with fatigue, shortness of breath and some fairly serious consequences as well. When you don't have enough zinc, you can have a loss of appetite. It is a significant problem around the world. There's about one billion people who are zinc deficient. It's very important for maternal and child health. It affects development. The B vitamins are critical for a whole range of reasons. They help convert our food into energy. They're important for the functions of many of the physiologic activities in our bodies. And when you have higher carbon in a plant, you have less nitrogen, and you have less B vitamins.
Kada se radi o mikronutrijentima, skoro na sve njih utiče povećana koncentracija ugljen-dioksida. Posebno na gvožđe i cink. Kada nemate dovoljno gvožđa, može se razviti anemija. Dovodi se u vezu sa umorom, teškoćama u disanju, kao i nekim ozbiljnijim posledicama. Kada nemate dovoljno cinka, možete da izgubite apetit. Ovo je vrlo ozbiljan problem širom sveta. Oko milijardu ljudi na svetu ima nedostatak cinka. Veoma je važan za zdravlje majke i deteta. Utiče na razvoj. Vitamini B su vrlo bitni iz mnogo razloga. Oni pretvaraju hranu koju jedemo u energiju. Važni su za funkcije mnogih fizioloških aktivnosti u našim organizmima. A kada biljka ima više ugljenika, imamo manje azota i manje vitamina B.
And it's not just us. Cattle are already being affected because the quality of their forage is declining. In fact, this affects every consumer of plants. And give a thought to, for example, our pet cats and dogs. If you look on the label of most of the pet and dog food, there's a significant amount of grain in those foods. So this affects everyone.
I ne utiče samo na nas. Utiče i na stoku jer kvalitet stočne hrane opada. Zapravo, ovo utiče na svakog ko konzumira biljnu hranu. Uzmimo naše ljubimce mačke i pse, na primer. Ako bacimo pogled na etiketu njihove hrane, videćemo da u njoj postoji velika količina žitarica. Stoga ovo utiče na sve.
How do we know that this is a problem? We know from field studies and we know from experimental studies in laboratories. In the field studies -- and I'll focus primarily on wheat and on rice -- there's fields, for example, of rice that are divided into different plots. And the plots are all the same: the soil's the same, the precipitation's the same -- everything's the same. Except carbon dioxide is blown over some of the plots. And so you can compare what it looks like under today's conditions and under carbon dioxide conditions later in the century.
Kako znamo da je ovo problem? Znamo na osnovu terenskih istraživanja i eksperimentalnih studija u laboratorijama. U terenskim istraživanjima - a fokusiraću se prvenstveno na pšenicu i pirinač - postoje polja, recimo, pirinča, koja su izdeljena na različite parcele. Parcele su sve iste: zemljište je isto, količina padavina je ista – sve je isto. Osim što iznad nekih parcela ima više ugljen-dioksida. Tako možete uporediti situaciju u uslovima danas i onu u uslovima sa više ugljen-dioksida kasnije tokom ovog veka.
I was part of one of the few studies that have done this. We looked at 18 rice lines in China and in Japan and grew them under conditions that you would expect later in the century. And when you look at the results, the white bar is today's conditions, the red bar is conditions later in the century. So protein declines about 10 percent, iron about eight percent, zinc about five percent. These don't sound like really big changes, but when you start thinking about the poor in every country who primarily eat starch, that this will put people who are on the edge over the edge into frank deficiencies, creating all kinds of health problems.
Bila sam deo jedne od nekoliko studija koje se ovim bave. Istraživali smo 18 zasada pirinča u Kini i Japanu i gajili ih u uslovima koje biste očekivali kasnije u ovom veku. Kada pogledate rezultate, beli stubac označava uslove danas, a crveni uslove kasnije u ovom veku. Nivo proteina se smanjuje za oko 10%, gvožđa oko 8%, cinka oko 5%. To ne zvuči kao prevelika promena, ali ako pomislite na ljude koji žive u siromaštvu u svakoj zemlji i prvenstveno jedu skrob, onda će ovo dovesti ljude koji se nalaze na samoj ivici do toga da pređu tu ivicu u ozbiljan nedostatak, što će izazvati razne zdravstvene probleme.
The situation is more significant for the B vitamins. When you look at vitamin B1 and vitamin B2, there's about a 17 percent decline. Pantothenic acid, vitamin B5, is about a 13 percent decline. Folate is about a 30 percent decline. And these are averages over the various experiments that were done. Folate is critical for child development. Pregnant women who don't get enough folate are at much higher risk of having babies with birth defects. So these are very serious potential consequences for our health as CO2 continues to rise.
Situacija je malo drastičnija za vitamin B. Ako pogledate vitamine B1 i B2, videćete pad od oko 17%. Pantotenska kiselina, vitamin B5, beleži pad od oko 13%. Nivo folata se smanjuje za oko 30%. Ove cifre predstavljaju prosečne vrednosti raznih eksperimenata. Folat je od velikog značaja za razvoj dece. Kod trudnica koje ne dobijaju dovoljno folata postoji veći rizik da bebe budu rođene sa nekim defektom. Ovo su vrlo ozbiljne potencijalne posledice po naše zdravlje ako nivo ugljen-dioksida nastavi da raste.
In another example, this is modeling work that was done by Chris Weyant and his colleagues, taking a look at this chain from higher CO2 to lower iron and zinc -- and they only looked at iron and zinc -- to various health outcomes. They looked at malaria, diarrheal disease, pneumonia, iron deficiency anemia, and looked at what the consequences could be in 2050. And the darker the color in this, the larger the consequences. So you can see the major impacts in Asia and in Africa, but also note that in countries such as the United States and countries in Europe, the populations also could be affected. They estimated about 125 million people could be affected. They also modeled what would be the most effective interventions, and their conclusion was reducing our greenhouse gases: getting our greenhouse gas emissions down by mid-century so we don't have to worry so much about these consequences later in the century.
U drugom primeru, koji su modelovali Kris Vejant i njegove kolege, vidimo povezanost povišenog nivoa CO2 i smanjenog nivoa gvožđa i cinka - a proučavali su samo gvožđe i cink - sa raznim zdravstvenim ishodima. Uzimali su u obzir malariju, dijarejske bolesti, upalu pluća, anemiju usled nedostatka gvožđa, i razmatrali moguće posledice u 2050. godini. Tamnija boja označava veće posledice. Možete da vidite veliki uticaj u Aziji i Africi, ali obratite pažnju na to da i zemlje poput SAD-a i zemalja Evrope mogu biti pogođene. Procenjuje se da bi oko 125 miliona ljudi moglo biti pogođeno. Takođe su prikazali najefikasnije moguće intervencije i došli do zaključka da treba smanjiti emisiju gasova staklene bašte: smanjiti emisiju gasova do polovine ovog veka kako ne bismo brinuli toliko o ovim posledicama kasnije.
These experiments, these modeling studies did not take climate change itself into account. They just focused on the carbon dioxide component. So when you put the two together, it's expected the impact is much larger than what I've told you.
Ovi eksperimenti i prikazi nisu uzeli u obzir same klimatske promene. Fokusirali su se isključivo na ugljen-dioksid. Stoga, kada uzmete sve u obzir, očekuje se da je ovaj uticaj mnogo veći od ovoga što vam pričam.
I'd love to be able to tell you right now how much the food you had for breakfast, the food you're going to have for lunch, has shifted from what your grandparents ate in terms of its nutritional quality. But I can't. We don't have the research on that. I'd love to tell you how much current food insecurity is affected by these changes. But I can't. We don't have the research on that, either. There's a lot that needs to be known in this area, including what the possible solutions could be. We don't know exactly what those solutions are, but we've got a range of options. We've got advancements in technologies. We've got plant breeding. We've got biofortification. Soils could make a difference. And, of course, it will be very helpful to know how these changes could affect our future health and the health of our children and the health of our grandchildren. And these investments take time. It will take time to sort all of these issues out. There is no national entity or business group that is funding this research. We need these investments critically so that we do know where we're going.
Volela bih da mogu da vam kažem sada koliko je hrana koju ste jeli za doručak i ona koju ćete jesti za ručak drugačija od hrane koju su vaši preci jeli u pogledu kvaliteta hranljivosti. Ali ne mogu. Nema istraživanja o tome. Volela bih da vam kažem koliko na pitanje obezbeđenosti hrane utiču ove promene. Ali ne mogu. Nema istraživanja ni o tome. Treba znati dosta o ovom problemu, uključujući moguća rešenja. Ne znamo tačno koja rešenja postoje, ali imamo dosta opcija. Imamo napredak u tehnologiji. Imamo uzgoj biljaka. Imamo biofortifikaciju. Zemljišta mogu biti od pomoći. I naravno, bilo bi vrlo korisno da znamo kako ove promene mogu da utiču na budućnost našeg zdravlja i zdravlja naše dece i unuka. A za takve investicije je potrebno vreme. Biće potrebno dosta vremena da se pozabavimo svim ovim pitanjima. Ne postoji nijedan državni entitet ili poslovna organizacija koja finansira istraživanje ovoga. Hitno su nam potrebne investicije kako bismo stvarno znali kako dalje.
In the meantime, what we can do is ensure that all people have access to a complete diet, not just those in the wealthy parts of the world but everywhere in the world. We also individually and collectively need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the challenges that will come later in the century.
U međuvremenu, ono što možemo je da osiguramo da svim ljudima bude dostupna potpuna ishrana, ne samo onima iz bogatijih krajeva sveta, već svima na planeti. Takođe moramo da pojedinačno i kolektivno smanjimo emisije gasova staklene bašte kako bismo smanjili izazove koji nas čekaju kasnije.
It's been said that if you think education is expensive, try ignorance. Let's not. Let's invest in ourselves, in our children and in our planet.
Kaže se ako mislite da je obrazovanje skupo, probajte sa neznanjem. Ali nemojmo to. Hajde da uložimo u sebe, u našu decu i u našu planetu.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)