Chris Anderson: I get now to introduce one of the most powerful women in the world. I mean, if we are to escape from the mess that we're in right now, she is going to play a major part in helping us do that. She's the head of the International Monetary Fund, a delight to welcome here Kristalina Georgieva. Kristalina, welcome.
克里斯·安德森(Chris Anderson): 现在,我要向大家介绍 世界上最有权势的女性之一。 如果我们想要摆脱 当前这一糟糕的局面, 她在其中扮演着 不可或缺的角色。 她是国际货币基金组织的首席执行官, 让我们欢迎 克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃 (Kristalina Georgieva)。 欢迎来到这里, 克里斯塔利娜。
Kristalina Georgieva: Great to be with you, Chris. Thank you for having me.
克里斯塔利娜(Kristalina Georgieva): 非常荣幸见到你, 克里斯。 谢谢你的邀请。
CA: So you just took on this role late last year, and within four months, boom, COVID arrives. That is one heck of an introduction to a new job. How are you doing?
克里斯:你是在去年 下半年才上任的, 然而仅仅四个月后, 新冠疫情就爆发了。 对一份新工作来说, 这真是一个艰难的开端。 现在情况怎么样呢?
KG: Well, I find strength in action. And at the Fund, we have been, from day one on this crisis, leaning forward with everything we have to provide lifelines to countries, and that means to people and businesses. Already, we have received over 90 requests and we have offered, to 56 countries, critical financial packages.
克里斯塔利娜: 我在行动中找到了力量。 基金组织 从这场疫情开始的第一天起, 就一直致力于 用我们的一切资源 援助各国, 这也意味着 支持各国的人民和企业。 我们收到了超过 90 个国家的求助, 我们已经为 56 个国家 提供了关键的经济支持。
CA: You've described this pandemic as a crisis like no other. In what way a crisis like no other?
克里斯: 你说这场疫情 是一场前所未有的危机。 你为什么这样认为?
KG: Truly like no other. First, never before we will inflict on the economy consciously so much pain to fight a virus and save lives. We are asking businesses not to produce and consumers not to go out and consume. At the Fund, we labeled this "the Great Lockdown." Second, never before there would be such a rapid change of fortunes practically for everybody around the world. In January, I was in Davos, talking about "anemic growth," growth of three percent. In April, during our spring meetings, it was already minus three percent. In January, we predicted 160 countries to have positive income per capita growth. Now it is 170 countries with negative income per capita growth. Now this, we call "the Great Reversal." Very painful. And three, uncertainty. We always live with uncertainty, Chris, but this time, it is the uncertainty of a novel coronavirus that policymakers have to integrate. We at the Fund combine epidemiological projections with our traditional macroeconomic modeling to see through that uncertainty. I must add to this, I very much hope that when we go on the other side in the recovery, we can use a new term and call it "the Great Transformation." Make the world a better place.
克里斯塔利娜: 这确实是前所未有的。 首先,我们从未像这样 有意识地牺牲经济增长 来对抗疫情, 拯救人们的生命。 我们要求企业停产, 要求消费者停止 外出和消费。 在货币组织,我们称 这个局面为“经济大封锁”。 其次, 对于世界上 每一个人来说, 以前从未有过 这样迅猛的财富变化。 今年 1 月,我在达沃斯 (Davos) 谈到了“经济增长疲软”, 也就是增长(低于)百分之三。 4 月春季会议的时候, 经济以负百分之三的速度增长。 在 1 月, 我们预计 160 个国家会 实现人均收入的正向涨幅。 而现在 170 个国家的 人均收入呈现了负增长。 我们称其为”大逆转”。 这是很惨痛的。 第三点, 不确定性。 我们的生活中总是 充满了不确定,克里斯。 但这次, 正是新冠肺炎的不确定性, 让决策者们必须 团结在一起。 货币组织将流行病学的预测 和传统的宏观经济模型相结合, 来剖析那种不确定性。 必须补充的一点是, 我非常希望经济复苏的时候, 我们能用一个 新的词汇:“大转型”。 让世界变得更好。
CA: Well, I'll be excited to come on to that in a bit. But in this moment of responding to the crisis, the main tool that seems to have been executed, at least by the rich countries, has been this massive economic stimulus, to the tune of trillions of dollars. Is that a wise response?
克里斯: 我非常期待那个局面。 但就现在而言, 针对这场危机, 最主要的措施 好像已经实行了, 至少许多富裕国家 已经实行了数万亿美元的 大规模经济刺激。 这是理智的措施吗?
KG: It is a necessity. And you don't hear the Fund often telling countries, "Please, spend. Spend as much as you can." And that is what we do now. We do add to that, "And keep the receipts. Don't lose accountability to the citizens, to the tax payers." The reason financial injection is necessary, these fiscal measures of almost nine trillion dollars are necessary, is because when the economy is standing still, unless there is help, unless there is monetary policy stimulus, firms are going to go massively bankrupt, people would be unemployed, the economy would be scarred. When we go to the other side, this scarring is going to make the recovery much more difficult. So that is a wise thing to do, and it helps the fact that central banks in major economies have been acting in a synchronized manner and that fiscal stimulus came really, really fast. This is how we see people being able to go through this very, very tough time.
克里斯塔利娜: 这是必要的。 你很少听到货币组织 对国家们说, “请随便花钱, 能花多少是多少。” 但这是我们现在 正在做的。 我们确实强调, “记得保留收据。 不要失信于公民和纳税人。” 财政刺激的重要性, 这近 9 万亿美元的 财政刺激措施十分必要的原因是, 当经济停滞不前时, 除非有援助措施 和货币政策的刺激, 否则企业就会经历大规模的破产, 人们会失业, 经济会变得伤痕累累。 当我们开始经历 复苏的时候, 这种伤痕会让经济复苏 变得更加困难。 所以,这确实是 理智的措施, 它可以让中央银行 在经济体中 发挥同步性的作用, 让财政刺激更快生效。 我们认为人们可以通过这样的方式 渡过这段非常艰难的时期。
CA: But how far can it go? Because it's been described, in a sense, as "printing money" -- governments are issuing more and more bonds that have to paid back at some point. There's this term, in economics, of the Minsky moment, where things can go very well for a while, as everyone believes that, you know, that the train can keep running, the cycle can keep turning, you know, that governments have all this money. At some point, though, doesn't that break down? Do you worry that we may be nearing a Minsky moment, where, like Michael in Mary Poppins grabs his tuppence and starts a run on the bank. Is there stress in the international financial system now that concerns you, that makes you feel that we may be running out of headroom?
克里斯:但这种措施 可以持续到什么程度呢? 因为现在的情况 被描述成是“印刷钞票”—— 政府在不停地 发行更多的债券, 而政府需要在之后 还清这些债券。 经济学有个说法—— “明斯基时刻(the Minsky moment)” 说的是事情都进行得 很顺利的一段时期, 就像每个人都相信的那样, 这辆火车可以 继续在轨道上行驶, 经济周期会继续循环, 钱都在政府手里。 但在某一刻,这一切 不会突然崩溃吗? 你担心我们正在迎接 一段明斯基时刻吗? 就像电影《欢乐满人间》 (Mary Poppins)里的迈克尔, 拿了两便士去挤兑银行一样。 现在的国际金融体系 有没有任何压力 让你忧心, 让你觉得我们可能 已经捉襟见肘了?
KG: Of course, this cannot go on forever. I, for one, have trust in our scientists, I think we will see breakthroughs, and we will see also people in businesses getting accustomed to social distancing, to micromeasures that protect from spreading the disease. We have seen very massive injection in health systems, so hospitals can actually treat people that are coming for help. Obviously, if it is to go for a very long time, we would be worried. For now, what we are projecting is that there would be a gradual reopening -- we see it already happening in a number of countries. And we project for next year, 2021, a partial recovery. Not a full recovery, unfortunately, but coming to a better place. Now, what helps us is something that I don't particularly love, but I see it as a positive feature -- very low interest rates, in some cases, negative -- that allows this injection of fiscal measures and liquidity to be sustained over a number of years. And for now, we do not see on the horizon any return to increase in interest rates. So low for longer, and that is, in that environment, a helpful feature.
克里斯塔利娜: 当然了, 这种情形不可能持续下去。 首先,我相信科学家们, 我认为我们会看到突破, 我们也会看到商业人士 开始习惯社交距离, 这种防止疾病传播的措施。 我们看到大规模的援助 进入医疗系统, 医院得以治疗 来寻求帮助的病人。 显然,如果这种情况 持续非常长的时间, 我们会开始担忧, 目前, 我们预测 经济会逐步重新开放—— 我们现在已经在 几个国家看到了。 并且我们预测, 到 2021 年, 我们会在一定程度上 实现经济复苏。 遗憾的是,彻底复苏很难, 但会恢复到一个比较好的程度。 现在帮助我们的, 是我不太喜欢的方式, 但我能看到 它积极的一面—— 非常低的利率, 甚至有些情况下, 负利率—— 可以允许这种 财政注入措施和流动性 持续好几年。 当下我们不觉得 将来会有利率的提高。 长期的低利率 在这种环境下 是非常有帮助的。
CA: I mean, the financial crisis of 2008 came perilously close to breaking the entire financial system -- arguably, it did that. By most people's calculation, this is a far worse impact to the economy overall. Did the world learn something from 2008 that has helped us so far be resilient this time?
克里斯:2008 年的金融危机 险些让整个金融系统崩溃, 也有人认为金融系统已经崩溃了。 很多人预测, 这次疫情对经济的负面影响 还要更严重。 我们有从 2008 年的危机中 学到任何帮助适应 当下情形的东西吗?
KG: What the world learned is that the financial system has to be tested and then strengthened to withstand shocks. And that is helping us tremendously today. The banking system is resilient, and even in the nonbanking financial institutions, there is more attention paid to how far can you go without running into trouble. I would say, if you look around the world, the most important lesson then was "build resilience to shocks." Those who have done it cope now better. And those who have not done it are in a much tougher spot. And actually, for the Fund, what we are praying is that we will come out of this crisis with this lesson about resilience being spread beyond the banking system, so we actually have this crisis-management mindset for a world that is inevitably going to be more shock-prone, because of climate and also because of the sheer density of economic and social life on our planet.
克里斯塔利娜: 我们知道了 金融体系需要被检验、 被强化,以经受更大的冲击。 这一点现在 给了我们很大帮助。 银行系统是有弹性的, 甚至在非银行的 金融机构中, 大家更关注 它能顺利地运行多久。 我想说, 如果你环顾世界, 我们学到的最重要一课就是 建立应对危机的弹性机制。 那些已经这么做的国家, 现在应付得更好一些。 而那些没有这么做的国家 则陷入了更加艰难的境地。 实际上, 对货币组织来说, 我们都祈祷 我们在走出这次危机的同时认识到, 弹性机制应该应用于 银行体系外的更多领域, 我们要调整心态, 适应这个危机重重的世界, 这是不可避免的, 因为气候, 也因为地球上经济 和社会生活的密度。
CA: In your role, you're paying special attention to the situation in developing countries. And it does seem that they're facing a really terrible situation right now. Many of them have significant debt denominated in dollars. In the current crisis, their currencies are depreciating against the dollar, making it nigh impossible for them to execute the kind of injection, stimulus injections, that the rich countries are doing and seems to be the only way out. So that seems like a really dangerous cycle. Is there any way to break that cycle?
克里斯:从你的角度看, 你特别关注 发展中国家的状况, 而这些国家似乎也确实 面对着非常糟糕的局面。 他们当中很多都背负着 巨额的美元债务。 在这场危机中, 他们的货币兑美元 正在贬值, 让他们几乎不可能实行这种 刺激性的财政扶持, 而相对发达的国家正在这么做, 这似乎是摆脱困境的唯一办法。 这看来像是一个 非常危险的循环。 有什么办法可以 打破这种局面吗?
KG: Well, let me first separate countries that have built strong fundamentals. And now in this crisis, as we are receiving incoming data, not very many, but there are still some positive surprises, and they come from countries that have built stronger buffers, stronger fundamentals, have been more disciplined during good times. But indeed, we do see quite a number of emerging markets, developing countries, faced with multiple pressures. They had the hit from the coronavirus, many of them with weak health systems. Then, they have the high level of indebtedness, from before the crisis, which creates a much more difficult environment for them. Then, many of them are commodity exporters. Commodity prices, oil price, they went down very dramatically, that hits them again. Many rely on remittances. Remittances shrunk some 20 to 30 percent. And then you have a number of countries that are highly dependent on tourism. Tourism is the hardest hit sector, or one of the hardest hit. So, very tough for these countries, but this is why institutions like mine have been wisely created. The IMF, the World Bank, the regional development banks, we work very closely together in this crisis. The IMF, fortunately, that was one of the lessons from the 2008-2009 crisis -- make sure that in the center of the financial safety net is an IMF with financial strength. We have four times more money to lend today than we had then. From 250 billion to one trillion dollars. And of course, we are deploying these funds exactly for the countries that need us the most.
克里斯塔利娜: 让我先来谈谈 已经建立了成熟的经济系统的国家。 现在在这场危机中, 我们收到的数据表明—— 数据不是特别多, 但也有一些积极的信号—— 来自那些已经建立了 强劲的经济缓冲 和扎实的经济基础, 在正常时期也 有着良好规划的国家。 但是,我们也确实看到, 有相当一部分的新兴市场, 发展中国家 面临了多方面的压力。 他们受到了 来自新冠的冲击, 他们中的许多国家 医疗保健体系非常薄弱。 他们还有因为以往的危机 而导致的高额债务, 这也为他们的艰难处境雪上加霜。 他们中的许多是商品出口国。 商品和石油价格 下滑得非常厉害。 同样对他们造成了冲击。 许多国家依赖于汇款, 而有些汇款已经缩减了 百分之二十到三十。 还有一些国家 高度依赖旅游业。 旅游业是受到冲击 最严重的领域之一。 所以,疫情对那些国家 来说非常艰难, 但这也是像我们这样的机构 创立的原因。 国际货币基金组织、 世界银行、地域性发展银行 在这场危机中紧密合作。 幸运的是, 国际货币基金组织 从 2008-2009 年的危机中学到的是, 要保证金融安全网的中心 是有雄厚的财政实力的 国际货币基金组织。 我们现在可借用的资金规模 超过了之前的四倍—— 从 2500 亿增加到了 1 万亿美元。 而且我们肯定 会把这些资金分配给 那些急需援助的国家。
And we did one more thing. With David Malpass, the president of the World Bank, we called for a debt moratorium for the poorest countries to their official bilateral creditors. And people tend to say, "Oh, we don't work together, it's not good enough." But here is an area where we made this call in late March, and in mid-April, the G20 agreed on this moratorium. Amazing, we had the Paris Club, China, the Gulf countries, all agreeing that we should not suffocate the poorest countries by asking them to pay their debts when their economies are standing still.
我们还做了一件事。 和世界银行行长 大卫·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)一起, 呼吁最贫穷国家 延期向其官方双边债权国 偿还债务。 人们总是说, “我们没有团结在一起, 这还远远不够。” 但我们在三月末 和四月中的时候, 针对一个地区做出了这项决议, G20 国家同意了 这项延期还债的举措。 令人惊喜的是, 巴黎俱乐部、中国 和海湾阿拉伯国家, 全部同意我们不应该 对最贫困的国家逼得太紧, 当他们的经济还处于停滞的时候 要求他们还清债务。
CA: Is it possible that some developing countries are overdoing the lockdown policy? I mean, if large numbers of your citizens are already struggling to stay alive, isn't it almost like a death sentence to order them not to leave their homes?
克里斯:有没有可能 一些发展中国家 把封锁政策做过头了呢? 如果大部分国民在 挣扎着维持生计, 让他们呆在家中 是不是就等于坐以待毙?
KG: Well, Chris, one of the most heartbreaking conversations I would have is with leaders of countries where they have to stare in the face a choice of people dying from the virus or dying from hunger. And it is a very dramatic situation for them. Where you have a very large part of your economy being informal, where people live hand-to-mouth every day, the lockdowns we have in advanced economies are not quite applicable, but even there, countries are doing really well in social distancing to the extent it is possible. Many of the countries in Africa were very early to step up preventive measures. Why? They learned from the Ebola, they learned from prior crises that hygiene, taking any measure you can really helps. So again, I cannot stress enough how important is solidarity with these countries. How important it is for my institution to be there for them in a timely manner. And we do it.
克里斯塔利娜:我进行过的 最令人心碎的谈话之一, 是与面临生死抉择的 国家领导人—— 是让国民死于病毒, 还是死于饥饿。 这对他们来说是 非常艰难的选择。 在这段时期,大部分经济 不能正常运行, 人们每天过着 仅能糊口的生活, 那些在发达经济体中施行的封锁 不是非常适用。 但是就算这样, 很多国家在尽可能 保持社交距离上 还是做得非常好。 许多非洲国家 非常早就开始了防范措施。 为什么呢? 他们从埃博拉和 以前的危机中学到, 卫生防疫, 采取任何手段去保证公共卫生, 真的可以起到很大的作用。 重申一次,我认为再怎么强调 团结对这些国家来说有多重要, 我们这些机构及时提供的帮助 有多重要都不过分。 并且我们做到了。
CA: Whitney.
克里斯:惠特妮。
Whitney Pennington Rogers: Hi there, thank you, this is a wonderful conversation, and we're starting to see some questions coming from the community. The first one we have is from Bill Elkus, and it's a follow-up to something you were mentioning earlier, related to the stimulus, Kristalina. What are the prospects for inflation from such a large stimulus?
惠特尼·罗杰斯: 你好,谢谢。 这是一次精彩的对话, 我们已经收到了一些观众的问题。 第一个问题来自 比尔·埃尔库斯, 这个问题跟你之前提到的话题相关, 是关于刺激性举措的。 实行大力度的刺激性财政措施之后, 通货膨胀的前景怎样?
KG: At this point, we are not worried about inflation in advanced economies and in the majority of emerging market economies. We do worry about inflation in countries that have weak fundamentals, no access to foreign exchange easily, where the only way to address the crisis is our help or their central banks printing more money. And sometimes it's a combination of those two. Why I don't worry about inflation in advanced economies? Because countries that have their hard currency are putting liquidity in place, but at the same time, they're not seeing a big expansion of demand and prices being pushed up. So for these countries, at least for the observable future, we don't see a way of going, like after the Second World War, in inflation jumping up. The consumers are not consuming so aggressively, demand is not that strong, and these are societies where there is a lot of maturity in how they exercise their policy options. But if you are a poor country, that out of desperation, with no access to markets, no access to hard currency, ought to somehow put money supply enough, then inflation is going to be there. A very extreme case is Zimbabwe, and I do worry there may be other countries. So this is why we are so determined to engage with these countries early. And also look at some of the high-debt countries. Would it be necessary, on a country-by-country basis, to restructure debts to prevent that moving in a desperate direction?
克里斯塔利娜: 在这个时候, 我们并不担心发达经济体 和大部分的新兴市场经济中的 通货膨胀问题。 但对于那些基础薄弱、 没有方便的外汇渠道的国家, 我们确实对 潜在的通货膨胀比较担心。 对于他们来说, 唯一脱险的办法 就是向我们寻求帮助, 或者让他们的中央银行 发行更多货币。 有时候是两者的结合。 为什么我不担心 发达经济体的通货膨胀问题呢? 因为那些有稳定的 “硬通货”的国家 流动性做到位了, 但同时, 他们并没有看到 非常明显的需求扩大 和价格推升。 所以对那些国家来说, 至少在可预见的未来, 我们不会看到 二战之后那样的 通货急剧膨胀的走向。 消费者没有积极地消费, 需求并不强烈, 这只是对于那些 非常成熟、 知道怎么实施自己的 政策的国家来说的。 如果非常贫困的国家 几乎到了绝望的时候, 又无法进入市场, 无法得到硬通货, 只能设法提高货币供给, 通货膨胀也会随之出现。 一个非常极端的例子 就是津巴布韦。 我确实担心会有 其他国家紧随其后。 这也是为什么我们下定决心 尽早参与帮助这些国家。 至于负债很高的国家, 有没有必要 一个一个国家 去重塑债务结构, 防止走向绝望的境地呢?
WPR: Thank you. And we have one more question that I wanted to share from our community. This is from Keith Yamashita, and it's about how we all can be involved in some of this change. "You are tasked with macro-economic and funding efforts. What should we do as citizens to help renewal and recovery?"
惠特尼·罗杰斯: 谢谢你。 我们还有一个 来自观众的问题, 山下基思, 问的是我们如何可以 积极参与到其中的一些变化中—— “您的任务是推动宏观经济 和资金层面上的措施, 作为普通公民,我们要怎么帮助 推动这场革新和经济复苏呢?”
KG: Well, it is incredibly important for all of us citizens -- and aside of being the head of the IMF, I am also a global citizen -- that we are to bring that notion of solidarity in a moment of crisis. I loved the way this segment was musically backed, and it was "Lean on Me." It is very important that we do create that sense -- "we are in this together, we will get through it together." And please, speak up on that. I was, for many years, crisis commissioner, and one thing I learned is that the majority of people are positive, good people. You can lean on them. And there is a minority that is hateful and fearful and also very loud. So, good people, speak up. Spread that sense of "we are in this together, we'll get through it together."
克里斯塔利娜: 这对所有公民都非常重要—— 作为 IMF 的首席执行官, 我也是一位世界公民—— 在当下这场危机中, 我们秉持同舟共济的观念。 我很喜欢用一首歌 来阐述这个概念, 这首歌是《依靠我吧》 (“Lean on me”)。 做到歌词说的那样 真的很重要—— “让我们同舟共济,共渡难关。” 所以请做出你的努力吧。 在从事危机专员工作的那些年, 我学到的其中一件事就是, 大部分人都是 乐观、善良的。 你可以依靠他们。 也有小部分人 是言行可憎、令人厌恶的, 并且总是发出各种噪声。 所以善良的人们, 发出你的声音。 让我们一起传播那句话—— “让我们同舟共济,共渡难关。”
WPR: Thank you. I'll come back later with other questions.
惠特尼·罗杰斯:谢谢您。 我稍后再问其他的问题。
CA: Kristalina, I'd love to expand on that and just ask you a bit more about leadership, actually. You know, when people think of the nations that have performed best, they often refer to -- when I say best, best in response to the current pandemic -- they often refer to Germany, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, Denmark and Norway. When they think of those that have performed worst, they often think of Spain, Italy, the UK, Belgium, Sweden, Iran, Brazil, Russia and the United States. All of that second group are run by men, all but one of the first group are run by women. Is that a coincidence?
克里斯:克里斯塔利娜, 我想对此进行扩展, 问一些关于领导力的问题。 当人们想到 表现最好的国家, 他们通常想到的是—— 我指的是疫情 控制得最好的国家—— 他们会想到 德国、新西兰、 韩国、中国台湾、 丹麦和挪威。 说到表现得 最差的国家时, 他们通常想到西班牙, 意大利、英国、比利时、 瑞典、伊朗、 巴西、俄罗斯, 还有美国。 表现差的国家全部 在男性的领导下, 表现好的国家除了一个外, 全部由女性领导。 这是巧合吗?
KG: Well, now, speaking a bit subjectively as a woman, I do believe that women are great to lead in a crisis. They are more likely to show empathy, to care about the most vulnerable people and to be able to speak about that. They are decisive. I can say that for myself, we take energy from action. And we don't tend to, kind of, mourn and complain too much. So there is perhaps something to be said about the value of gender equality for the future. Bring more women for this world of more crisis ahead of us.
克里斯塔利娜: 现在的话, 从女性的角度, 主观地说, 我确实相信女性 在危机中出色的领导力。 她们更有可能 表现出同理心, 关心弱势群体, 并且能开诚布公地谈论这些事。 她们很果断。 至少对于我来说, 我们从行动中获取能量。 而且我们不倾向于去 过多地表达悲痛 或者抱怨。 所以在未来 可能会存在一些 关于性别平等的价值的说法。 要让更多女性参与到这个 充满危机的世界中。
CA: It's obviously hard to make generalizations about gender of any kind, but I mean, is there also, almost, something about the embracing of nuance, that women might be better at that than men? Men are often, it's like, "let's win, let's conquer," and in a situation like this, where it's all probabilities, it's like, there are so many complex dials to turn on this dangerous pandemic machine that we're trying to wrestle. I mean, are women better at handling nuance?
克里斯: 概括任何一种性别的特质 明显是很难的, 但是我还是很好奇, 有没有可能 女性在发现细节上 比男性做得更好? 男性通常喜欢说 “让我们取胜,征服!” 像现在的情形, 有无数的可能性, 就好像去拨动这个 我们正在努力抗争、 危险的疫情机器上 复杂的拨号盘。 女性会更擅长处理 细微的东西吗?
KG: Let me say something, Chris. We need everybody, and we need this mixture of experience, knowledge and predisposition. Men and women coming together. I find it that it is great to have different perspectives when we make decisions. Then, the chances of making a good decision are higher. So we need each other, but we also need to recognize is that yes, there are certain things, I have seen it time and again, women are more willing to find a pathway to compromise, they're more willing to be corrected if they're wrong. Say, "Oh, OK, that's a good point, let me integrate it in the way I think about it." And when you are in uncertainty, that is a huge advantage in decision-making.
克里斯塔利娜: 我想说,克里斯, 我们需要每个人, 我们需要这种经验、 知识和素质的结合。 男人性和女性是站在一起的。 我发现在做决定时 听到不同的观点 是很有帮助的。 这样做出好的决定的概率会高很多。 所以我们需要彼此, 但是我们也要承认, 有一些特定的事情, 我看到过很多次, 女性更愿意去妥协, 如果她们错了的话, 也更愿意被纠正。 她们会说,“是的, 那是个很棒的想法, 让我根据我的思路 再整合一下。“ 当你不确定时, 这在决策制定方面 就是一个巨大优势。
CA: So perhaps talk a bit more about your own leadership in this moment. I mentioned you've only recently come to this job. Before that, you were European Commissioner, you dealt with humanitarian crises in more than one part of the world. And in your own country, Bulgaria, you witnessed the wholesale transformation of the country, both politically and economically. What lessons can you bring from your past experience to this moment?
克里斯: 让我们谈论下 你在当下环境中的领导力吧。 你最近才接手这份工作。 之前你是欧盟委员会委员, 负责处理全世界多个地区的 人道主义危机。 并且在你的祖国 保加利亚, 你见证了这个国家 在政治和经济上的 逐渐转型。 你从之前的经历中 学到的哪些经验 比较适用于当下的情况?
KG: Well, there are many things I learned. I was very fortunate to have these multiple experiences for the job I have now. But let me highlight three.
克里斯塔利娜: 我学到了很多东西。 我很幸运有那么多样的经历 可以运用到现在的工作中。 但我想强调三点。
First, how critically important it is to prepare for a crisis. Kind of, think of the unthinkable, and then act with some foresight when a shock hits you. You have a title for this series called "Build Back Better." I actually would like to modify it, if I may, and I would talk about "Build Better Before." Preparedness, prevention, pay off big time.
首先,为一场危机做好准备 是多么重要。 大胆想象一些不可预见的事情, 然后在危机来临的时候, 可以有所预见地行动。 这种应对危机的做法叫 “更好地重建”。 如果可以的话, 我想换个说话, 叫作“未雨绸缪”。 准备、防范可以让我们 得到巨大的回报。
The second -- and not necessarily in priority, it is as important -- is collective action, working together. Seeking help, offering help. Makes a huge difference in an emergency.
第二点是—— 不一定是最重要的, 但也很重要—— 就是共同行动, 一起努力。 寻求帮助、给予帮助, 在危机中可以 发挥巨大的作用。
And the third is something I learned time and again. We don't know our internal strength until we are hit. We are so resilient, we are so able to withstand shocks, especially when we come together, that this always gives me this sense of optimism that, as hard as it is, we can overcome it. From the days when my country collapsed, the economy collapsed, I would get up at four o'clock in the morning, queue to buy milk for my daughter, to the days when I would see Syrian refugees in terrible situations helping each other, to today, when I'm the head of the IMF, that internal strength, our power of resilience, the more we are together, the more it is amplified.
第三点,也是我一直在 不断学习到的。 我们并不知道 我们内在的力量, 直到我们受到了冲击。 我们很顽强, 我们完全有能力经受住冲击, 特别是当我们 团结在一起的时候, 这一点总能 让我变得乐观, 不管有多困难, 我们都能克服。 无论是在保加利亚的经济 崩溃的那一天, 我需要在凌晨 4 点起床, 排队为我女儿买牛奶, 还是当我看到叙利亚难民们 在艰难的处境中 互相帮助彼此的那一天, 直到今天,我身为 IMF 的首席执行官, 当我们越团结, 那种内在的力量, 那种不屈不挠的精神 就会越强大。
CA: Actually, could you talk a bit more about the role of the IMF, especially as we look forward to trying to recover from this? What specifically can your organization do to take us forward?
克里斯: 你可以谈论一下 IMF 的角色吗, 特别是在我们期待 经济复苏的情况下? IMF 会如何 引领我们走出困境?
KG: So there are three things that are quite unique for the IMF, and they're really so important in a time of crisis. The first one is to give a good diagnostic of what is happening and what is the way forward. Let me just say, in this crisis, in the very first weeks, we put together, we call it policy action tracker, for 193 countries. What actions are countries taking, how they can learn from each other, so we can be more effective together. We are adding to it, now, actions for responsible reopening of the economies exactly with that purpose. What we are known best for, we are the financial first responder. We are coming in this incredible shock with very significant financial firepower. And what people don't know is that the Fund has multiple instruments. Emergency financing is the one we doubled for this crisis. And it is no conditionalities. We are asking one thing, Chris. Pay your doctors and your nurses, your hospitals, protect your most vulnerable people and parts of the economy. That's it, this is the condition. And the third thing we do at the Fund is to help countries have the capacity for good policies. After the financial crisis, we helped many countries to have good debt management, good fiscal management, transparency and accountability to improve the performance of public finance. So the Fund is not a very big organization by any standard, we are some 3,000 people. Highly professional, incredibly committed. When you use the expression "all hands on deck," that's us. And it is a digital deck, it is a digital deck these days.
克里斯塔利娜: 有三件事 基本上只能由 IMF 来做, 这些事情在危机时刻 真的非常重要。 第一项是对时事 做出明确的判断 并且找到解决的办法。 这样说吧, 在这次危机中, 在第一周的时候, 我们组合信息,对 193 个 国家进行政策行动追踪。 这些国家采取了什么行动, 他们能怎样彼此借鉴和学习, 让我们更加有效率。 我们现在也在监测 那些重新开放的 经济体系的行动, 也是为了达到同样的目的。 我们最广为人知的角色 是金融体系的第一响应者。 我们用可观的经济援助 应对这场前所未有的危机。 人们不知道的是, 基金组织有多种的策略。 紧急融资是我们 加倍使用的其中一种, 并且是无条件的。 我们只有一个要求,克里斯。 为医生、护士们、 医院提供资金, 保护那些最弱势的群体 和部分经济体。 这就是我们的唯一条件。 基金组织在做的第三件事, 是帮助各国拥有 实施优质政策的空间。 在金融危机之后, 我们帮助了很多国家 提升债务管理能力、 良好的财政管理、 透明度和公信力, 来提高公共财政表现。 以任何标准来衡量, 基金组织规模都不算大, 我们大概有三千多人。 他们都非常专业, 也非常尽职尽责。 说到“全体待命”的时候, 指的就是我们了, 而且这是一种数字化的“待命”, 现在什么都是数字化的。
CA: I mean, this is a global crisis. A lot of people are worried that unlike perhaps even in 2008, where it really did seem there was a lot of global cooperation, there's actually, in some worrying ways, less this time? Are you worried about how crucial is that to getting us through this?
克里斯: 这是一场全球性的危机。 很多人会担心这次不会像 2008 年那场危机那样, 有那么多的国际合作, 实际上从某些方面来看, 国际协作甚至还被削弱了? 你有没有担心过 这对渡过这场危机有多关键?
KG: I mean, my preoccupation is, in our mandate, in my area of responsibility, bring the membership together. We have almost the whole world, 189 countries are our members, and so far, I am very impressed by how responsive the membership has been. I put in front of them in the spring a package, very strong package of measures to expand the role of the IMF in the crisis. Everything that we ask for -- we ask for doubling emergency financing, we got it. Very interesting. We ask for tripling concession of financing. Exactly because, you know, like the virus hits people with a weak system the hardest, the crisis hits weak economies the hardest. So we wanted to triple concession of financing. Within one month, we got it. We asked for grants for debt relief, we got it. So what I'm trying to say here is that we need to focus on ways in which we bring the world together. And then act on that. Rather than complaining that maybe not everything is the way it should be, do your duty to the global community.
克里斯塔利娜: 我的前一份职业就是 有责任、有义务地 把成员们团结在一起。 我们几乎有全世界的成员, 我们有 189 个国家, 直到现在,我都一直 对成员国的配合感到非常钦佩。 我在春季的时候 向他们提交了一份方案, 那是非常有力的措施, 为了扩大 IMF 在这场危机中的作用。 我们要求的所有事情—— 要求加倍紧急融资, 都被满足了。 非常有意思。 我们要求三倍的融资优惠。 因为,你知道的, 病毒对处于 脆弱系统中的人们冲击最大, 这场危机对那些 经济薄弱的国家打击最重。 所以我们想要 三倍的融资优惠。 一个月以内,我们的 要求也被满足了。 我们要求延迟偿还债务, 也被满足了。 所以我一直想说, 我们要把精力集中在 让世界团结在一起的方式, 并且采取行动。 而不是抱怨 事情本不该这样, 要对全球人类的安全 尽到自己的责任。
CA: Well, indeed. And the IMF is dependent on the financing from its members, its key members.
克里斯: 确实是的。 IMF 依靠它的成员国 提供的资金来运营, 它的那些主要成员们。
KG: Yes.
克里斯塔利娜:是的。
CA: I mean, you spoke of the trillion dollars that you are looking to make available to nations that need it. As I read it, that comes from -- you've got these units called Special Drawing Rights. You basically draw a currency from members. And hasn't there been pushback, though, from the US, to block that effort of raising all that money?
克里斯:你说的那些大量资金, 那些你尝试提供给 需要的国家的资金, 我了解到它们来自于 你们的“特别提款权”。 你们基本上是从 成员国那里提取货币。 有没有任何来自美国的压力, 阻止你们募集那些资金?
KG: So the one trillion dollars is from our quotas and also from our ability to move money from well-to-do members from the advanced economies and lend it at very low or zero interest to the developing emerging markets. And we had this one trillion and what was very interesting, not everybody noticed that -- the US, in their two trillion dollars stimulus package, included the support for the IMF. The Special Drawing Rights is something that we, indeed, don't have yet consensus among the membership to do. It was done during the 2009 crisis, issuing liquidity, and it goes to everybody. And there are many voices, including mine -- I spoke to the G20 about that -- that are saying, well, that may be a good thing to do now. It is not being supported for reasons. It is not just capriciously.
克里斯塔利娜: 有一万亿美元来自我们的配额, 同时我们也把资金 从运行良好、成熟的经济体 以非常低或者接近零的利率 借给那些发展中的新兴市场。 我们还有一万亿—— 有趣的是,不是每个人 都注意到了—— 在美国自己的 2 万亿美元刺激政策中, 也包括了给 IMF 的援助。 对于特别提款权, 我们确实 还没有与成员国们达成共识。 这在 2009 年的危机中实施过, 刺激流动性, 而且每个人都可以从中受益。 有非常多的言论, 包括我的—— 我跟 G20 国家关于这个 进行过谈话—— 我说这应该是一件 值得做的事情。 因为各种原因, 这个政策没有得到支持。 这不是突发奇想的。
The problem with Special Drawing Rights is that when we issue them, they go to all members, and the advanced economies get 62 percent of the new allocation, and there are some that are saying, "Can we think of something that is more directed, or exclusively directed to those who need it?" But, Chris, everything is on the table for us. As the crisis unfolds, we need to do more, we bring the membership to do more.
特别提款权的问题是, 当我们发行的时候, 资金流向了所有成员, 发达国家会得到 62% 的分配。 还有一些人说, “我们能想出一个更直接, 或者只针对需要帮助的国家的办法吗?” 但是,克里斯, 所以细节都需要达成共识。 当危机来临时, 我们需要做得更多, 让我们的成员国做得更多。
CA: Whitney.
克里斯:惠特妮。
WPR: We actually have a question from the community that builds on what you're discussing right now. Yavnika Khanna asks, "Which countries will prove to be resilient in the Great Transformation: those with popular leaders or those with sound financial systems?"
惠特尼·罗杰斯: 我们有个来自观众的问题, 是基于我们正在 谈论的话题的。 亚夫尼卡·卡纳问, “这场大转型中,哪个国家 会有较强的适应能力: 是那些有受欢迎的领袖的, 还是有良好金融体系的国家?”
KG: You know, they both matter. Countries with strong fundamentals are clearly going through this crisis with less trauma than those that had weak fundamentals to begin with. And of course, leadership matters. How you mobilize a country for action matters. In my view, what we would see on the other side, the winners would be those who think today of this crisis also as an opportunity. Clearly, digital transformation is a huge opportunity. Moving to e-learning, e-government, e-payments, e-commerce, linking small and medium-sized enterprises through digital to consumers, big winner. Secondly, I very much hope that we would come on the other side with a low carbon footprint and a more climate-resilient economy. Those who move in this direction, they would reduce the risk for themselves and the world. From this other crisis, that we are not talking so much about these days, but it hasn't gone anywhere. And you know, if you don't like pandemic, you are not going to like the climate crisis at all. And also, countries that are thinking of how to make the economy in the future a fairer economy. In other words, we have been seeing inequality building up before this crisis. My colleagues who have researched pandemics have a very bitter lesson for us. After pandemics, after H1N1, after SARS, after Zika, inequality goes up. Well, are we going to let inequality to go up, up, after this crisis? And if we do, we are damaging the fabric of our societies, and my sense is that hundreds of millions of people in this crisis would much prefer to have a simpler, fairer, more equitable world to live in, and definitely, a more sustainable world.
克里斯塔利娜: 这两项都很重要. 拥有坚实经济基础的国家 一定可以渡过这场危机, 并且受到的创伤会比 基础疲软的国家少。 当然,领导力也很重要。 怎么调动国家层面的行动 同样非常关键。 在我看来, 从另一个方面来说, 赢家是那些 把今日的危机 同时当成机会的人。 很明显,数字化转型 是一个巨大的机会。 能够迅速转向数字化学习, 数字化政府、 电子支付、电子商业、 用电子化连接 中小型企业 和消费者的经济体, 就是巨大的赢家。 其次,我非常希望 我们可以转向 低碳排放的 气候适应型经济。 朝着这个方向发展的国家 会降低对他们自己 和这个世界的风险。 这是另外一场 我们最近没怎么 谈论的(气候)危机, 但它还远未解决。 如果你不喜欢疫情, 你也绝对不会喜欢气候危机。 还有,那些在想着 怎么让经济在以后 变得更加公正的国家 也不会喜欢气候危机。 换句话说, 这场危机之前,我们 已经看到了不平等的加剧。 我的一些研究流行病的同事们 要给我们送上非常沉痛的一课。 在疫情之后, 比如 H1N1 流感、 非典和寨卡病毒之后, 不平等都明显加剧了。 所以,我们会让 不平等在这场危机后 不停加剧吗? 如果我们这么做了, 我们就在破坏我们社会的结构, 我感觉这场危机中的数亿人 更想在一个简单、公平、 公正的世界里生活, 并且那也肯定是 一个可持续发展的世界。
CA: Mm.
克里斯: 有道理。
KG: Those would be the winners.
克里斯塔利娜: 那些经济体会成为真正的赢家。
WPR: Definitely. And just one more question from our community, before turning it back to Chris for some final questions here. You know, this one is from Sarah Rugheimer. And the question is, "What do you see as the main potential positive shifts / changes in this world from this pandemic, say, two to 10 years from now?"
惠特尼: 肯定的。 还有一个来自观众的问题, 在克里斯问最后的一些问题之前。 这个问题来自莎拉·鲁格海默。 问的是, “你怎么看待这场疫情在世界范围内 带来的主要潜在积极转型, 比如在未来的两年到十年内?”
KG: Well, I touched upon it a little bit. First, I hope to see fiscal policy to help us recover to be geared towards green recovery and more equitable recovery. And that is something that is in the hands of policymakers. It can be done. Secondly, I very much hope to see us integrating what we have learned from the crisis, in terms of virtual work. My organization, the IMF, well, we can shrink our carbon footprint dramatically just by sustaining the practices we are developing now, and we will. I certainly hope to see, in the future, much more attention to two things that we saw in this crisis are essential. Universal access to health in some form, strong health systems, as well as strong social safety nets, built as automatic stabilizers in a time of shock. And by the way, it is cheaper if we do it in this way. The bill for everyone is going to be smaller. And also, I very much hope that this notion of investing in people, recognizing that now that we see this horrible tragedy, the loss of lives, that investing in people is the very best investment we can make.
克里斯塔利娜: 我之前谈及了一点。 首先,我希望看到 能够帮助实现 并适应更加环保 和更平等的经济复苏的 财政政策。 这是政策制定者 能够掌握的事情, 是可以做到的。 第二,在远程工作方面, 我非常希望看到,能够整合 我们从危机里汲取的经验。 在 IMF, 我们可以大量缩减 我们的碳排放量, 仅仅通过维持我们 正在制定的实践方案, 我们将继续这样做。 我当然也希望看到将来 更多人关注这次疫情中 我们发现的两件重要的事。 普及健康医疗—— 强有力的医疗系统, 和牢固的社会安全网, 在紧急时刻能够 像自动稳定器一样发挥所用。 而且这样做更实惠, 每个人的开销会更少。 我希望普及把资金投资 在人民身上的概念—— 既然我们已经目睹了 这场可怕的悲剧, 以及那么多失去的生命—— 投资在人民身上 就是最好的投资。
CA: Mm.
克里斯:说得好。
WPR: That's great.
惠特妮:太棒了。
CA: So, see you again in a minute, Whitney. Kristalina, it's so -- It's so inspiring, actually, hearing the energy and stuff, the energy that you're bringing to this. I don't think many people coming into this would have expected to hear, from the head of the IMF, this emphasis on, you know, "Let's solve the climate crisis, let's tackle inequality and injustice." Do you really believe that this moment, this crisis could help lead us into a great transformation? People will feel it's your job to sound positive, you have to do that. Do you really see the path forward that we can get through this, and what sort of timescale are we talking about here, Kristalina?
克里斯:那么一会见儿,惠特妮。 克里斯塔利娜, 这非常—— 听到这些正能量的话, 你带来的这些正能量 非常的鼓舞人心。 我不觉得很多参与这场对话的人 会期待从 IMF 的 首席执行官口中听到 这样的呼吁—— “让我们解决气候危机, 解决不平等和不公正。” 你真的觉得这个时候, 这场危机可以带动我们 进行更好的转型吗? 人们会觉得你的工作 就是听起来很乐观, 因为你必须这样做。 你真的觉得我们能 渡过这场危机吗, 大概需要多长时间呢, 克里斯塔利娜?
KG: Well, you know, one thing I learned from the transition I lived through, the transition from central planning to markets, is it is tough, it is long, it is painful and it is a road that takes turns. So I don't have an expectation of miracle from here to there. But I genuinely believe that we are now in a point of our history when people demand from their leaders safety and security and a society that is not torn apart by conflicts. And that is actually not unusual to see. So, I would turn the table a little bit on you, Chris. After a war, we see the world coming together and building a better world. Why not after a pandemic? And yes, we can make mistakes and not take the right road to travel. But we certainly have an obligation to try to get on that road.
克里斯塔利娜:我从亲身经历过的 转型中学了到一件事, 从中央计划经济 到市场经济的转型, 是困难、漫长、棘手的, 并且这不是 一条平坦的道路。 所以我不觉得我们会 奇迹般从这里到那里。 但我确实相信我们现在 正处于历史的一个节点, 人民向他们的领袖要求 安全和稳定, 要求一个不会被冲突撕裂的社会。 这实际上并不罕见。 所以我想问你,克里斯。 在一场战争之后, 我们看到整个世界 团结在一起, 建立起了一个更好的世界。 为什么在一场疫情后 我们做不到呢? 是的, 我们会犯错, 会走上错误的道路。 但我们绝对有义务 尝试走上正确的道路。
CA: So if you could just inject --
克里斯: 如果你能提倡——
KG: And everybody matters for that.
克里斯塔利娜: 并且这与每个人都息息相关。
CA: So if you could inject one idea into the mind of everybody, or into to the world leaders who listen to you, what would that idea be at this moment?
克里斯:如果你能向 所有人,或者听你讲话的 全世界领导人们 推崇一个观念, 那个观念是什么?
KG: Optimism. Build a better world. Possible, desirable, we must do it.
克里斯塔利娜:乐观。 建造一个更好的世界 是可能的、值得期待的, 我们必须这样做。
CA: That sounds like optimism as the stance, not just a naive belief that it will happen, but a determination to make it so. That's what you're calling for. To use that as the motivation to pull us all forward together.
克里斯: 这听起来 真的非常乐观, 不仅仅是肤浅地 相信它会发生, 而是一种 让它发生的决心。 那正是你正在提倡的观念, 让它成为所有人 团结向前的动力。
KG: Chris, do I have one minute, or I'm done, I need to go?
克里斯塔利娜:我们还有 时间吗?还是马上要结束了?
CA: If you want to say one last thing in one minute, alright, go.
克里斯:如果你最后 还想说点什么,请说吧。
KG: I want to say one thing. To recommend to the audience to watch the movie "Bridge of Spies." There is a part in the movie in which the two main actors, the lawyer and the Russian spy, talk to each other. The lawyer says, "Things are very bad, it looks like you may hang." The spy is very calm. Lawyer says, "Aren't you worried?" The spy answers, "Would it help?" So my message is, it is tough, but worries won't help. Positive action will. Positive, stay positive, so that's my message.
克里斯塔利娜: 我想再说一件事。 我建议听众去看一部电影, 《间谍之桥》(“Bridge of Spies”)。 电影中有一个片段, 两个主演—— 律师和俄国间谍 ——在交谈。 律师说,“事情非常糟糕, 看样子你可能命不久矣了。” 间谍非常冷静。 律师说,“你不担心吗?” 间谍回答,“担心有用吗?” 所以我想说的是,现在的确是 一个非常艰难的时刻, 单纯的焦虑不会有任何帮助, 但积极的行动会。 乐观,保持积极, 这就是我想说的。
CA: Well, I have to say thank you. It's incredibly inspiring, actually, to see your energy and your determined optimism, let's call it that. I think we wish you the very best as you use your position to help get us out of this mess. Thank you so much, Kristalina, for spending time here at TED. Thank you.
克里斯:真的非常感谢。 你的正能量 和坚定乐观的心态 非常鼓舞人心。 我们想要祝你好运, 通过你的工作帮助 我们走出这场困境。 很感谢你加入 TED 的这场对话, 克里斯塔利娜。 谢谢。
WPR: Thank you, Kristalina.
惠特妮:谢谢你, 克里斯塔利娜。