Since 1997, researchers at the University of Sussex have monitored global trends in armed conflict. Their research clearly shows that in Africa, over the last 10 years, armed conflict has gone up by sevenfold. Let's think about that: sevenfold in a single decade. Why is this?
从1997年开始, 萨塞克斯大学(位于英国东萨塞克斯郡) 的研究人员就一直监测着 全球武装冲突的发展态势。 他们的研究清楚地表明, 非洲在过去十年里, 武装冲突的发生率上升了七倍。 想想看吧! 仅仅十年就翻了七倍。 为什么会这样?
We believe, as oxygen is to fire, so are unemployed youth to insecurity. We have a lot of youth on this continent. Youth like Sandra, who, on a Saturday morning in March 2014, woke up excited at the prospects of getting a coveted job at the Nigerian Immigration Services. She kissed her daughter goodbye, left her home, never to return. Sandra and 15 other young Nigerians died that day, applying for a job, in the ensuing stampede, as tens of thousands of people applied for a few thousand open positions.
我们认为,正如氧气能加剧火的燃烧, 失业的青年会让社会不稳定性加剧。 在非洲,我们有很多青年。 很多青年和 Sandra 一样。 2014年3月的 一个星期六的早上, Sandra 兴奋地醒来, 因为她也许即将得到 一份梦寐以求的 在尼日利亚移民局的工作。 她亲吻了女儿和她告别, 离开了家, 再也没有回来过。 Sandra 和其他15个年轻的 尼日利亚公民在求职的那天罹难, 死于求职现场的人群踩踏事故, 因为仅仅几千个空缺职位 就有数以万计的人的人申请。
In the last 20 years, 20 million youth have entered the Nigerian workforce alone. Today, half our population is under the age of 18. That's almost 80 million people that will be entering the workforce in the next 20 years. My friends, if a wave of 20 million people entering the workforce triggered Niger Delta crisis, Fulani herdsmen crisis and Boko Haram, I ask you: What will four times that number do?
在过去的二十年里,仅尼日利亚 就有2000万年轻人进入劳动力市场。 今天,我们一半的人口 都在十八岁以下。 这意味着在接下来的二十年里, 会有将近八千万人需要工作。 朋友们, 如果仅仅两千万人进入劳动市场, 将会引发尼日尔三角洲危机, 富拉尼牧民危机, 催生博科圣地组织, 那么我想请问你们: 如果人数增加四倍, 会发生什么?
To do my part to solve this challenge, in 2012, I moved to a small village in northern Nigeria, in the center of the area most recently hit by the spread of insecurity, brutal bombings and searing poverty, with an idea: Could we create an economic buffer to halt the spread of this insecurity, by unlocking the power of agriculture as a job-creation engine?
为了尽我所能解决这个问题, 2012年,我搬到了 尼日利亚北部的一个小镇, 那里处于最近发生的危险事件, 炸弹袭击和贫困的中心地区。 我的想法是: 我们能不能把发展农业当作 创造大量工作岗位的引擎, 形成一个经济方面的缓冲方案, 来防止这类不安全事件的延续?
We knew this had been done before in countries like Thailand, where, in 1980, they suffered from the same economic challenges as us. Today, however, Thailand produces two million cars a year -- more than the United Kingdom -- with over 30 percent of its workforce as highly commercial, profitable small farmers, with an unemployment rate of less than one percent. How did they do this? In the 80s, Thailand dramatically improved the productivity of its small farmers, ensuring that it was able to start to dominate export markets for produce. Building on this strength, they attracted investment and started to process, being able to export higher-value products like starch from cassava. Finally, coupled with investment in education, they started to expand to even higher-value manufacturing. To make our idea a reality and follow a path similar to Thailand, we knew that we would have to sell young farmers on farming.
我们知道,一些国家 曾经这么做过,比如泰国, 在1980年的时候, 泰国和我们经历了同样的经济危机。 然而如今,泰国每年 生产两百万辆汽车—— 甚至比英国还多—— 有超过百分之三十的劳动力成为了 高度商业化的, 收入颇丰的小农场主, 而失业率还不到百分之一。 他们是怎么做到的? 在八十年代,泰国极大地提高了 小农场主的生产力, 保证国家有实力开始主导 产品的出口市场。 基于这个优势, 他们吸引了大量的投资, 进军产品加工行业, 有能力出口像木薯粉这样 更高价值的产品。 最后,配合着在教育上的投资, 他们开始扩大 更高产值的制造业的规模。 为了实现我们的想法, 走上和泰国相似的发展道路, 我们必须说服年轻人去耕种。
A young man in northern Nigeria, for the purpose of today's discussion, we'll call "Saminu," made it very clear to me that this would not be easy. Saminu grew up in a beautiful village in northern Nigeria. And he tells wondrous stories of playing for hours with his friends, running up and down the beautiful rock formations that dot the countryside around his home. Despite this beauty, Saminu knew that the first chance he got, he would leave. He did not want to be a farmer. Growing up, he saw his parents work so hard as farmers, but barely get by. As he says, they had "babu" -- nothing.
一个来自尼日利亚北部的年轻人—— 为了契合今天的讨论主题, 我们不妨叫他 “Saminu”。 他让我明白 这不是一件容易的事情。 Saminu 在尼日利亚北部的 一个美丽的村庄里长大。 他会讲关于沿着家附近田野 美丽岩层和小伙伴们跑上跑下, 一玩就是好几个小时的故事。 尽管家乡如此美丽, Saminu 依然会认为, 只要一有机会, 就会离开家乡。 因为他不想成为一个农民。 在他成长的过程中, 他看见父母非常辛苦地务农, 却只能勉强维持生计。 就像他说的那样,他们有 “babu” ——也就是什么也没有。
Young farmers like Saminu do not have access to the cash to buy the farming products to pair with their hard work to be successful. When their meager harvest came in, desperate for cash, they would sell most of it at fire-sale prices, when, if they could just wait six months, they could get 50 percent more. Hence, Saminu left to the city, where he soon realized that life was not easy. He borrowed a very old motorcycle, with tires that were more patches than tires, to become a motorcycle taxi driver. He lived in constant fear every day that his precious, tattered motorcycle would be ripped away from him, as it had before. But he got it back, thankfully. He knew of others, however, who were not so lucky -- other young men who, once they'd lost their motorcycles, became destitute. Angry, these young men set out to wreak vengeance on a society that they believed had turned its back on them. Saminu told me that they joined insurgent groups, often acting as getaway drivers in bombings and kidnappings.
像 Saminu 这样的年轻农民, 是没有足够的现金 去买和他们辛苦工作 相配的农产品的, 更别提获得成功了。 当他们获得极微薄的收成时, 由于迫切需要现金, 大多数收获的庄稼都会贱价出售。 如果他们能等上六个月, 就能多赚百分之五十。 因此,Saminu 离开家乡 前往城市谋生, 在那里他很快意识到 生活并没有那么容易。 他借了一辆老旧的, 轮胎上全是补丁的摩托车, 成为了摩托出租司机。 他成日生活在恐惧之中, 担心他那辆宝贵的破烂摩托车 随时可能被抢走, 就像曾经发生过的那样。 但谢天谢地, 那次他把车拿回来了。 不过他知道别人就没那么幸运了—— 别的年轻人, 一旦丢了车, 就陷入了极度贫困。 这些年轻人一怒之下会去报复 这个已经唾弃他们的社会。 Saminu 告诉我, 他们加入了造反组织, 经常在炸弹袭击和绑架行动中 充当帮助犯罪分子逃跑的同谋。
To end this cycle of insecurity, we must make farming a viable choice. We must ensure that these young men, on their small farms, can earn enough money to make a life for themselves; to make a future. The question now is how. Recognizing that Africa has grassroot-level leadership, we simply developed a model to bring the professional management and investment to scale to these grassroot leaders. We called it "Babban Gona" -- "great farm" in Hausa.
为了终结这种不安全事件的循环, 我们必须将农业 发展成一个可行的选择。 我们必须确保这些年轻人 在他们自己的小农场上, 可以挣到足够的钱 来养活他们自己; 给自己一个未来。 现在的问题是怎么做。 考虑到非洲目前基层领导状况, 我们只需要建立一种模式, 把专业的管理理念和投资交给 这些基层领导者。 我门把它叫做 “Babban Gona” —— 在豪萨语中是“大农场”的意思。
Upon reaching the village in 2012, I traveled from community to community, trying to convince people of our idea, trying to recruit farmer members. We failed woefully that first year, barely recruiting 100 brave souls. But we persevered. We kept doing what we promised, slowly we gained their trust. More farmers joined us. Fast-forward now five years. With a passionate and committed team and the tremendous support of our partners, we grew dramatically, today, serving 20,000 small farmers, enabling them to double their yields and triple their net income relative to their peers. We are very proud of the fact --
2012年,我一到达这个村庄, 就开始一个社区一个社区地游说, 想要让更多的人认同我们的想法, 想要招聘更多农民。 我们第一年经营惨淡, 仅仅雇到 100 个勇于尝试的人。 但我们坚持做下去了。 我们一直完成着我们许下的承诺, 也逐渐得到了他们的信任。 更多的农民加入了我们。 一转眼五年过去了。 在热情忠诚的团队, 以及合作伙伴的巨大支持下, 我们成长得很快。 现在,我们培养了 2万个小农场主, 帮助他们获得了 同龄人两倍的收成 和三倍的纯收入。 我们为此感到非常自豪——
(Applause)
(掌声)
Fast-forward three years, Saminu has earned enough money to buy three goats for his mother to start a goat-rearing business, owns his own retail store and bought not one, but two motorcycles, with vanity license plates: "Babban Gona."
在这快速发展的三年里, Saminu 已经挣了足够多的钱, 他买了三头山羊给他的妈妈, 让她能通过饲养山羊赚钱; 他拥有了自己的零售店; 他还买了两辆摩托车, 而不是只有一辆, 摩托车的牌照上写着 “Babban Gona”。
(Applause)
(掌声)
My friends, in the next 20 years, over 400 million Saminus are entering the African workforce, with potentially half of them having opportunities in agriculture. To unlock these opportunities, through models similar to ours, they would require 150 billion dollars a year in financing. This is a big number. But if we can tap into commercial debt, it is a small number -- only 0.1 percent of all the debt in the world today, 10 cents out of every 100 dollars. This is why we designed our model to be very different from conventional agricultural development programs. In a few short years, we have shown that our model works, is high-impact and can turn a profit, attracting commercial investors that do not typically invest in small farmers in Africa.
我的朋友们, 在接下来的二十年里, 会有超过4亿像 Saminus 这样的年轻人进入非洲劳动力市场, 他们之中有一半的人 都有机会在农业行业发展。 为了运用和我们相似的模式, 来获得赚钱的机会, 他们需要每年1500亿美元 的财政支持。 这是一笔大数目。 但如果我们借助商业债务的方式, 这就是个小数目—— 只有现在世界债务总和的 0.1%, 相当于每100美元里的10美分。 这就是我们要把模型设计得 和传统的农业发展项目 不一样的原因。 在短短的几年里, 我们已经证明我们的模型是可行的, 既有很大的影响力, 且还能盈利, 还可以吸引更多 原本并不打算投资 非洲小农场的投资者。
Imagine a world where millions of young men across Africa, hardworking young men, have other options. I know these driven, ambitious young men will make the right choice. We can realize this dream if they have a choice.
想象一下那样的世界, 数以百万计的非洲年轻人, 那些勤劳工作的年轻人, 拥有的选择。 我知道这些奋发努力的, 雄心勃勃的年轻人, 会做出正确的选择。 我们可以帮助实现他们的梦想, 如果他们有选择的机会。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)