Here are two reasons companies fail: they only do more of the same, or they only do what's new.
公司失敗有兩個原因: 他們老做同樣的事情 或者他們只做最新的事情。
To me the real, real solution to quality growth is figuring out the balance between two activities: exploration and exploitation. Both are necessary, but it can be too much of a good thing.
對我來說,真正高品質的企業成長方案 是找出以下兩種活動之間的平衡: 探索與開發。 這兩者都是必要的, 但太多又不一定是好事。
Consider Facit. I'm actually old enough to remember them. Facit was a fantastic company. They were born deep in the Swedish forest, and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world. Everybody used them. And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along? They continued doing exactly the same. In six months, they went from maximum revenue ... and they were gone. Gone.
想想辦公室產品 製造商 Facit 公司, 其實我算老了,所以還記得他們。 Facit 是一間很棒的公司。 他們在瑞典的森林深處誕生, 他們曾生產全世界 最好的機械式計算機。 大家都用他們的計算機。 但當電子式計算機來臨時, Facit 做了什麼改變? 他們繼續做一樣的事。 在半年內,他們從 最高營業額一路下滑, 直到公司倒了。 消失了。
To me, the irony about the Facit story is hearing about the Facit engineers, who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan that they used to double-check their calculators.
對我來說,Facit 故事最諷刺的 是聽說 Facit 工程師 在日本買便宜的小型電子計算機 來驗算他們自己的計算機。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Facit did too much exploitation. But exploration can go wild, too.
Facit 太注重產品開發了。 但探索過多偶爾也會失控。
A few years back, I worked closely alongside a European biotech company. Let's call them OncoSearch. The company was brilliant. They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure, certain forms of blood cancer. Every day was about creating something new. They were extremely innovative, and the mantra was, "When we only get it right," or even, "We want it perfect." The sad thing is, before they became perfect -- even good enough -- they became obsolete. OncoSearch did too much exploration.
幾年前, 我與一家歐洲的生物科技公司合作。 讓我們暫且稱呼它為 OncoSearch 吧。 這家公司非常卓越。 他們有保證能診斷出、甚至治療好 幾種血癌的方法。 他們每天都在創造新的東西, 相當有創新的能力。 公司的宗旨是: 「我們不只要把事情做對, 我們甚至要做到完美。」 然而不幸的是, 在他們成為完美之前── 甚至還不算好時── 他們已經被淘汰了。 OncoSearch 太過於注重探索了。
I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago, when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University. The founder of the idea is Jim March. And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.
我第一次聽到「探索」和「開發」 這兩種不同的概念, 是在大概15年前,我在史丹佛大學 擔任客座學者時。 吉姆.瑪馳首先提出了這個想法。 對我來說,這個想法 最厲害的地方是,它相當實用。
Exploration. Exploration is about coming up with what's new. It's about search, it's about discovery, it's about new products, it's about new innovations. It's about changing our frontiers. Our heroes are people who have done exploration: Madame Curie, Picasso, Neil Armstrong, Sir Edmund Hillary, etc. I come from Norway; all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be. We all know that exploration is risky. We don't know the answers, we don't know if we're going to find them, and we know that the risks are high.
探索。 探索是一個想出新東西的過程。 它和搜索有關, 和發現有關, 和新產品有關, 和新發明有關, 和改變我們所知的領域有關。 我們的英雄都是那些探索: 居禮夫人、 畢卡索、 尼爾.阿姆斯壯、 艾德蒙.希拉里爵士等等。 我來自挪威; 我們所有的英雄都是探索者, 而且他們夠資格被稱為探索者。 我們都知道探索是存在風險的。 我們不知道答案, 我們不清楚是否可以找到答案, 所以我們知道風險很大。
Exploitation is the opposite. Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have and making good, better. Exploitation is about making our trains run on time. It's about making good products faster and cheaper. Exploitation is not risky -- in the short term. But if we only exploit, it's very risky in the long term. And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups who keep singing the same songs again and again, until they become obsolete or even pathetic. That's the risk of exploitation.
開發則正好相反, 開發是利用我們現有的知識 然後把東西變得更好。 開發就像如何讓火車準點出發, 或是產出更快、更便宜的優良產品。 短時間內,開發的風險並不大, 但是如果我們只著重在開發, 長期來說風險就很大了。 我想我們都認識一些知名流行樂團, 他們一直唱著一樣的歌, 周而復始地唱, 直到他們過時甚至有點悲慘為止。 這就是過度開發的風險。
So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore. If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit. Small children, they explore all day. All day it's about exploration. As we grow older, we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on. The same goes for companies. Companies become, by nature, less innovative as they become more competent.
所以,以長遠的角度來看, 我們要探索, 以短時間而言,我們要開發。 小孩天天都在探索新的事物, 整天都在探索, 而當我們漸漸長大, 學到了更多開發的知識, 就越來越少探索了。 對於公司來說也一樣。 當公司變得越來越有競爭力時, 自然就會減少了探索。
And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs. And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways. For example, "How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?" Or, "How can I make sure that our company changes before we become obsolete or are hit by a crisis?" So, doing one well is difficult. Doing both well as the same time is art -- pushing both exploration and exploitation.
當然,這對執行長來說 是令他們相當擔心的事情。 我常常聽到各式各樣的類似問題。 舉個例子, 「我要如何同時有效地經營 並重新改造我的公司?」 或者,「我怎樣才能確保 我的公司在被淘汰或危機來臨之前, 已做好了改變呢?」 所以,做好其中一項已經很困難了, 要同時推動探索和開發, 並把兩項都做好根本就是一門藝術。
So one thing we've found is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore and exploit at the same time, in parallel. But when they do, the payoffs are huge. So we have lots of great examples. We have Nestlé creating Nespresso, we have Lego going into animated films, Toyota creating the hybrids, Unilever pushing into sustainability -- there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.
我們觀察到, 大約只有 2% 的公司, 有能力同時進行有效的探索和開發。 但他們一旦達到, 就可以收到豐厚的回報。 我們有很多這樣的例子。 例如雀巢公司創造了 Nespresso 膠囊咖啡機, 樂高公司進入動畫電影領域, 豐田公司生產油電混合車, 聯合利華推動永續生活計劃, 這樣的例子還有很多, 也都帶來很大的利益。
Why is balancing so difficult? I think it's difficult because there are so many traps that keep us where we are. So I'll talk about two, but there are many.
但為什麼兩者之間的平衡這麼困難呢? 我認為原因是有很多陷阱, 讓我們一直故步自封。 我們等等會談到其中兩個, 但其實還有很多。
So let's talk about the perpetual search trap. We discover something, but we don't have the patience or the persistence to get at it and make it work. So instead of staying with it, we create something new. But the same goes for that, then we're in the vicious circle of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated. OncoSearch was a good example. A famous example is, of course, Xerox. But we don't only see this in companies. We see this in the public sector as well. We all know that any kind of effective reform of education, research, health care, even defense, takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work. But still, we change much more often. We really don't give them the chance.
所以,讓我們來談談 「不斷搜索」這個陷阱。 我們發現了新東西, 但我們沒有足夠的耐心或者毅力 去把事情做好、做對。 於是我們又去創造新東西, 而不是去深入研究它。 但周而復始,又做一樣的事情, 然後陷入一種 「一直有新發現,卻很無力」 的惡性循環中。 OncoSearch 就是個很好的例子。 另一個很有名的例子, 當然,就是全錄公司了。 但是這現象不只出現在公司裡。 我們在公眾領域上也看到同樣的狀況。 我們都知道,任何有效的改革方式, 無論在教育、研究、 醫療照顧、甚至國防上 都至少要10~15,甚至20年才能奏效。 但儘管如此,我們還是一變再變。 我們並沒有真正給它們機會。
Another trap is the success trap. Facit fell into the success trap. They literally held the future in their hands, but they couldn't see it. They were simply so good at making what they loved doing, that they wouldn't change. We are like that, too. When we know something well, it's difficult to change. Bill Gates has said: "Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail." That's the challenge with success.
另外一個陷阱是「成功的陷阱」。 Facit 公司掉入了成功的陷阱, 他們明明已經掌握了未來,卻看不到。 他們對喜歡做的事情相當在行, 所以不願意改變。 我們也是這樣, 當我們對一件事相當在行時, 想改變就變困難了。 比爾蓋茲曾經說過: 「成功是個差勁的老師, 它誘使我們認為,我們不能失敗。」 這就是成功帶來的挑戰。
So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us. And they apply to our companies. The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis. And any company that's able to innovate is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future. Netflix -- they could so easily have been content with earlier generations of distribution, but they always -- and I think they will always -- keep pushing for the next battle. I see other companies that say, "I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes."
所以我認為這其中有許多課題 可以讓我們學習 並運用在公司上。 第一課是:在危機到來前, 先做好打算。 公司如果有能力創新 其實就等於有能力幫自己的未來買保險。 Netflix 本可輕易滿足於 早期的通路經銷, 但他們總是──我想未來也會是── 不斷地接受挑戰。 我聽到一些其他公司說: 「我將不計代價, 在下個週期的創新中贏得勝利」。
Second one: think in multiple time scales. I'll share a chart with you, and I think it's a wonderful one. Any company we look at, taking a one-year perspective and looking at the valuation of the company, innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent. So when we think one year, innovation isn't really that important. Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company -- suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent. But companies can't choose. They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.
第二課:思考不同的時程表, 我想分享一張圖表給各位, 我覺得這張圖表很棒。 任何一家我們關注的公司, 從一年的角度 來評估公司價值時, 創新能力通常只佔 30%, 所以當我們只注重 「一個年度表現」的時候, 創新並不那麼重要。 接著看,同樣的公司, 拉長到「十年」來看, 突然間,創新和改革能力就占了 70%。 但公司別無選擇, 他們必須投資在這趟旅程中, 才能長期領先。
Third: invite talent. I don't think it's possible for any of us to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves. I think it's a team sport. I think we need to allow challenging. I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged, and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge. I think that's also what good parenting is about.
第三課: 招募人才。 我不認為 我們之中任何一個人可以獨自 在探索和開發之間尋找到平衡。 我認為這是一項團隊運動, 我認為我們必須允許挑戰的到來。 我認為願意接受挑戰 就是一間卓越公司的標誌。 而能夠提出建設性的挑戰, 則是優秀董事會成員的標誌。 我認為就像好的父母親 該有的標準一樣。
Last one: be skeptical of success. Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome, when the generals, after a big victory, were given their celebration. Riding into Rome on the carriage, they always had a companion whispering in their ear, "Remember, you're only human."
最後一課:對成功心存懷疑。 回想古羅馬時代的勝利遊行也許有用, 當將軍取得一場大勝, 準備接受慶祝時, 他們坐在馬車上準備進入羅馬, 身邊總會有人在耳邊小聲提醒他們: 「別忘了,你只是個平常人而已。」
So I hope I made the point: balancing exploration and exploitation has a huge payoff. But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious.
所以我希望我有說到重點: 取得探索和開發之間的平衡 會為你帶來巨大的回報。 但我們也要了解這個過程並不容易。
I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful. First question is, looking at your own company: In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk of falling into success traps, of just going on autopilot? And what can you do to challenge?
我想提出兩個我認為很有用的問題, 第一個問題是:看看你自己的公司。 在哪些方面你覺得公司可能有風險 會掉入「滿足於既有成功」的陷阱裡, 或者讓公司就這樣自然前進? 你又可以做些什麼來挑戰這一切?
Second question is: When did I explore something new last, and what kind of effect did it have on me? Is that something I should do more of? In my case, yes.
第二個問題是: 我上次探索新事物時, 我得到了什麽啟發? 這是我該更加努力的事嗎? 對我來說,答案是肯定的。
So let me leave you with this. Whether you're an explorer by nature or whether you tend to exploit what you already know, don't forget: the beauty is in the balance.
最後我想提醒各位, 無論你生來就是一位探索者, 還是傾向於專心開發 你所知道的事情, 別忘了:美麗就在平衡中。
Thank you.
謝謝各位。
(Applause)
(掌聲)