Here are two reasons companies fail: they only do more of the same, or they only do what's new.
Ovo su dva razloga zbog kojih firme propadaju: samo rade iznova jedno te isto, ili samo rade ono što je novo.
To me the real, real solution to quality growth is figuring out the balance between two activities: exploration and exploitation. Both are necessary, but it can be too much of a good thing.
Smatram da je istinski pravo rešenje ka rastu kvaliteta uspostavljanje ravnoteže između dve aktivnosti: istraživanje i eksploatacija. Obe su neophodne, ali može biti previše dobrih stvari.
Consider Facit. I'm actually old enough to remember them. Facit was a fantastic company. They were born deep in the Swedish forest, and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world. Everybody used them. And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along? They continued doing exactly the same. In six months, they went from maximum revenue ... and they were gone. Gone.
Uzmite u obzir Fasit. Zapravo sam dovoljno star da bih ih se setio. Fasit je bila fantastična kompanija. Osnovani su duboko u švedskoj šumi, i napravili su najbolje mehaničke digitrone na svetu. Svi su ih koristili. I šta je Fasit uradio kada je elektronski digitron došao? Nastavili su da rade potpuno istu stvar. Za 6 meseci, otišli su od najvećeg prihoda... do nestanka. Nestali.
To me, the irony about the Facit story is hearing about the Facit engineers, who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan that they used to double-check their calculators.
Po mom mišljenju, ironija o priči o Fasitu je slušanje o inženjerima iz Fasita, koji su kupili jeftine, male elektronske digitrone u Japanu koje su koristili da proveravaju svoje digitrone.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Facit did too much exploitation. But exploration can go wild, too.
Fasit je previše eksploatisao. I istraživanje može da dovede do ludila.
A few years back, I worked closely alongside a European biotech company. Let's call them OncoSearch. The company was brilliant. They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure, certain forms of blood cancer. Every day was about creating something new. They were extremely innovative, and the mantra was, "When we only get it right," or even, "We want it perfect." The sad thing is, before they became perfect -- even good enough -- they became obsolete. OncoSearch did too much exploration.
Pre nekoliko godina, blisko sam sarađivao sa jednom biotehničkom kompanijom iz Evrope. Nazovimo ih Onkosrč. Firma je bila fantastična. Imali su aplikacije koje su obećavale dijagnozu, čak i lečenje, određenih oblika leukemije. Svakog dana se nešto novo stvaralo. Bili su izrazito inovativni, i njihova deviza je bila: "Kada to znamo dobro da radimo." ili čak, "Želimo da bude savršeno." Loša stvar je pre nego što su postali savršeni, čak dovoljno dobri, postali su zastareli. Onkosrč je pravio previše istraživanja.
I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago, when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University. The founder of the idea is Jim March. And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.
Prvo sam čuo za istraživanje i eksploataciju pre oko 15 godina, kada sam radio kao gostujući predavač na Univerzitetu Stenford. Osnivač ideje je Džim Marč. Smatram da je moć ideje njena praktičnost.
Exploration. Exploration is about coming up with what's new. It's about search, it's about discovery, it's about new products, it's about new innovations. It's about changing our frontiers. Our heroes are people who have done exploration: Madame Curie, Picasso, Neil Armstrong, Sir Edmund Hillary, etc. I come from Norway; all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be. We all know that exploration is risky. We don't know the answers, we don't know if we're going to find them, and we know that the risks are high.
Istraživanje. Istraživanje predstavlja shvatanje šta je novo. Ono predstavlja istraživanje, otkriće, nove proizvode, nove inovacije. Pomeranje granica. Naši heroji su ljudi koji su istraživali: Marija Kiri, Pikaso, Nil Armstrong, Ser Edmund Hilari, itd. Potičem iz Norveške, i svi naši heroji su istraživači i zaslužuju da to budu. Svi znamo da je istraživanje rizično. Ne znamo odgovore, ne znamo da li ćemo ih pronaći, ali znamo da su rizici visoki.
Exploitation is the opposite. Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have and making good, better. Exploitation is about making our trains run on time. It's about making good products faster and cheaper. Exploitation is not risky -- in the short term. But if we only exploit, it's very risky in the long term. And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups who keep singing the same songs again and again, until they become obsolete or even pathetic. That's the risk of exploitation.
Eksploatacija je nešto suprotno. Ona predstavlja sticanje znanja i njegovo usavršavanje i proširivanje. Eksploatacija uzrokuje da naši vozovi stižu na vreme. Zbog nje su dobri proizvodi brži i jeftiniji. Eksploatacija nije rizična, kratkoročno. Ali ako samo eksploatišemo, veoma je rizična na duge staze. Mislim da se svi mi sećamo čuvenih pop grupa koje su pevale istu pesmu iznova i iznova, dok nisu zastarele i postale patetične. Ovo je rizik eksploatacije.
So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore. If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit. Small children, they explore all day. All day it's about exploration. As we grow older, we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on. The same goes for companies. Companies become, by nature, less innovative as they become more competent.
Ako pogledamo dugoročnu perspektivu, mi istražujemo. Ako uzmemo kratkoročni uvid, mi eksploatišemo. Deca istražuju svakoga dana. Čitav dan provode u istraživanju. Kako odrastamo, istražujemo manje jer imamo više znanja za eksploatisanje. Isto je i sa kompanijama. Kompanije prirodno postaju manje inovativne kako postaju sposobnije.
And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs. And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways. For example, "How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?" Or, "How can I make sure that our company changes before we become obsolete or are hit by a crisis?" So, doing one well is difficult. Doing both well as the same time is art -- pushing both exploration and exploitation.
A ovo je naravno velika briga za direktore. Često čujem pitanja koja su postavljana na drugačiji način. Na primer: "Kako mogu da i uspešno vodim kompaniju i iznova je izgrađujem?" Ili "Kako mogu da budem siguran da se naša kompanija menja pre nego što zastarimo ili nas pogodi kriza?" Činiti dobro jedno od to dvoje je teško. Činiti obe stvari dobro u isto vreme je umetnost - guranje istraživanja i eksploatisanja.
So one thing we've found is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore and exploit at the same time, in parallel. But when they do, the payoffs are huge. So we have lots of great examples. We have Nestlé creating Nespresso, we have Lego going into animated films, Toyota creating the hybrids, Unilever pushing into sustainability -- there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.
Jedna stvar koju smo otkrili je da je samo dva procenta kompanija sposobno da efektivno istražuje i eksploatiše paralelno, u isto vreme. Ali kada to rade, prilično se isplati. Imamo mnogo sjajnih primera. Nestle koji pravi Nespreso, Lego koji snima animirane filmove, Tojota pravi hibride, Unilever koji podržava održivi razvoj, postoji gomila primera a prednosti su ogromne.
Why is balancing so difficult? I think it's difficult because there are so many traps that keep us where we are. So I'll talk about two, but there are many.
Zašto je balansiranje toliko teško? Mislim da je teško zato što postoji toliko klopki koje nas drže tu gde smo. Pričaću o dve, ali postoji ih mnogo.
So let's talk about the perpetual search trap. We discover something, but we don't have the patience or the persistence to get at it and make it work. So instead of staying with it, we create something new. But the same goes for that, then we're in the vicious circle of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated. OncoSearch was a good example. A famous example is, of course, Xerox. But we don't only see this in companies. We see this in the public sector as well. We all know that any kind of effective reform of education, research, health care, even defense, takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work. But still, we change much more often. We really don't give them the chance.
Popričajmo o klopci trajne potrage. Oktrijemo nešto, ali nemamo strpljenja ili istrajnosti da krenemo s tim i nateramo ga da radi. Umesto da se držimo toga, stvorimo nešto novo. Ali isto je i za to, tako da smo u začaranom krugu gde zapravo dolazimo do ideja ali smo frustrirani. Onkosrč je bio dobar primer. Čuveni primer je naravno Kseroks. Ali ne vidimo ovo samo u kompanijama. Ovo se vidi i u javnom sektoru. Svi znamo da bilo kakva efikasna reforma školstva, istraživanja, zdravstva, čak i odbrane, traje 10, 15, možda 20 godina dok ne proradi. Ali opet, menjamo stvari mnogo češće. Ne damo im priliku.
Another trap is the success trap. Facit fell into the success trap. They literally held the future in their hands, but they couldn't see it. They were simply so good at making what they loved doing, that they wouldn't change. We are like that, too. When we know something well, it's difficult to change. Bill Gates has said: "Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail." That's the challenge with success.
Druga klopka je klopka uspeha. Fasit je upao u klopku uspeha. Bukvalno su imali budućnost u svojim rukama, ali nisu mogli da je vide. Prosto su bili tako dobri u pravljenju onoga što su voleli, da nisu hteli da se menjaju. I mi smo takvi. Kada nešto dobro poznajemo, teško je promeniti se. Bil Gejts je rekao: "Uspeh je loš učitelj. Zavodi nas da mislimo da ne možemo da podbacimo." To je izazov kod uspeha.
So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us. And they apply to our companies. The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis. And any company that's able to innovate is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future. Netflix -- they could so easily have been content with earlier generations of distribution, but they always -- and I think they will always -- keep pushing for the next battle. I see other companies that say, "I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes."
Mislim da postoje neke lekcije i da su primenjive na sve nas. Primenjive su i na naše kompanije. Prva lekcija je: idite ispred krize. Svaka kompanija koja je sposobna za inovaciju takođe je sposobna da sebi kupi osiguranje za budućnost. Netfliks - lako su mogli da se zadovolje ranim generacijama distribucije, ali su uvek - i mislim da će uvek tako - gurali do nove bitke. Vidim druge kompanije koje kažu: "Pobediću u narednom ciklusu inovacija, šta god bilo potrebno za to."
Second one: think in multiple time scales. I'll share a chart with you, and I think it's a wonderful one. Any company we look at, taking a one-year perspective and looking at the valuation of the company, innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent. So when we think one year, innovation isn't really that important. Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company -- suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent. But companies can't choose. They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.
Drugo: mislite na više vremenskih linija. Podeliću s vama grafikon i mislim da je predivan. Koju god kompaniju pogledali, uzevši perspektivu od jedne godine i gledajući vrednost kompanije, inovacija obično daje samo oko 30 procenata. Kada mislimo o jednoj godini, inovacija i nije tako bitna. Krenite unapred, pogledajte perspektivu iste kompanije za 10 godina, odjednom, inovacija i mogućnost obnavljanja daju 70 procenata. Ali kompanije nemaju izbor. Moraju da finansiraju putovanje i vode na duge staze.
Third: invite talent. I don't think it's possible for any of us to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves. I think it's a team sport. I think we need to allow challenging. I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged, and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge. I think that's also what good parenting is about.
Treće: primamite talenat. Mislim da za bilo koga od nas nije moguće da sami balansiramo istraživanje i eksploataciju. Mislim da je to timski sport. Mislim da treba da dozvolimo izazivanje. Mislim da je znak sjajne kompanije otvorenost ka izazivanju, i znak sjajnog poslovnog odbora je konstruktivno izazivanje. Mislim da je to i stvar dobrog odnosa roditelja prema deci.
Last one: be skeptical of success. Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome, when the generals, after a big victory, were given their celebration. Riding into Rome on the carriage, they always had a companion whispering in their ear, "Remember, you're only human."
Poslednje: budite skeptični na uspeh. Možda je korisno prisećati se starih trijumfalnih marševa u Rimu, kada je generalima nakon velike pobede priređena proslava. Ulazivši u Rim na kočijama, uvek su pored sebe imali saputnika koji bi im šaputao u uvo: "Seti se, ti si samo čovek."
So I hope I made the point: balancing exploration and exploitation has a huge payoff. But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious.
Nadam se da sam objasnio sve: balansiranje istraživanja i eksploatisanja prilično se isplati. Ali teško je i moramo biti trezveni.
I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful. First question is, looking at your own company: In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk of falling into success traps, of just going on autopilot? And what can you do to challenge?
Želim samo da istaknem dva korisna pitanja. Prvo je, gledavši na sopstvenu kompaniju: u kojim područjima vidite da je kompanija pod rizikom da upadne u klopke uspeha, da se vozi sama na autopilotu? I šta možete uraditi da to izazovete?
Second question is: When did I explore something new last, and what kind of effect did it have on me? Is that something I should do more of? In my case, yes.
Drugo pitanje je: kada sam poslednji put istražio nešto novo i koji je efekat to imalo na mene? Da li to treba više da radim? U mom slučaju, da.
So let me leave you with this. Whether you're an explorer by nature or whether you tend to exploit what you already know, don't forget: the beauty is in the balance.
Ostavljam vas uz ovo. Bez obzira da li ste po prirodi istraživač ili obično eksploatišete ono što već znate, ne zaboravite: lepota je u ravnoteži.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)