About 200 years ago, Napoleon famously warned ... He said, "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." Despite this early warning, the West chose to go to sleep at precisely the moment when China and India and the rest of Asia woke up. Why did this happen? I'm here to address this great mystery.
大約 200 年前, 拿破崙發出了著名的警告...... 他說:「讓中國沈睡, 因為一旦醒過來, 她將震撼整個世界。」 儘管有這樣的早期警告, 西方仍選擇在中國、印度 和亞洲其他地區甦醒過來時入睡。 為什麼會這樣? 我來這裡解說這個大謎團。
Now what do I mean when I say the West chose to go to sleep? Here I'm referring to the failure of the West to react intelligently and thoughtfully to a new world environment that's obviously been created by the return of Asia. As a friend of the West I feel anguished by this, so my goal to today is to try to help the West. But I have to begin the story first by talking about how the West actually woke up the rest of the world.
我說西方選擇入睡,意思是什麼? 我在這裡所指的是 西方未能智慧地、深思熟慮地應對 這個顯然是由亞洲回歸 所創造的新世界環境。 身為西方的朋友,我感到非常痛苦, 所以我今天的目標是努力幫助西方。 但首先我必須談談 實際上西方如何喚醒了 世界的其他地方。
Look at chart one. From the year one through the year 1820, the two largest economies of the world were always those of China and India. So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off, followed by North America. So the past 200 years of world history have therefore been a major historical aberration. All aberrations come to a natural end and this is what we are seeing. And if you look at chart two, you'll see how quickly and how forcefully China and India are coming back.
請看圖表一。 從第一年直到 1820 年, 世上最大的兩個經濟體 始終是中國和印度的經濟體。 只有在過去的 200 年裡歐洲起飛, 接著是北美。 所以,過去 200 年的世界歷史 嚴重偏離正常。 畸變全都會自然而然地結束, 正如我們所見。 看圖表二 就會看到中國和印度 快速和強勁的回歸力道。
The big question is: Who woke up China and India? The only honest answer to this question is that it was Western civilization that did so. We all know that the West was the first to successfully modernize, transform itself; initially it used its power to colonize and dominate the world. But over time, it shared the gifts of Western wisdom with the rest of the world.
最大的問題是: 誰喚醒了中國和印度? 這個問題唯一的誠實答案 就是西方的文明。 我們都知道是西方國家 首先成功地現代化和自我改造, 先是用權力來殖民和統治世界。 但隨著時間推移, 它與其餘的世界分享 西方智慧的恩賜。
Let me add here that I have personally benefited from the sharing of Western wisdom. When I was born in Singapore, which was then a poor British colony, in 1948, I experienced, like three-quarters of humanity then, extreme poverty. Indeed, on the first day when I went to school at the age of six, I was put in a special feeding program because I was technically undernourished. Now as you can see I'm overnourished.
讓我在這裡補充說明, 我本身受益於西方分享的智慧。 我於 1948 年出生在新加坡, 當時是一個貧窮的英國殖民地, 和當時四分之三的人一樣, 我經歷了極度的貧困。 事實上,在 6 歲時我第一天上學, 被排入一個特殊的餵養計劃, 因為技術上來說,我營養不良。 看得出現在我營養過剩。
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But the greatest gift I got was that of Western education. Now since I've personally traveled this journey from third world poverty to a comfortable middle-class existence, I can speak with great conviction about the impact of Western wisdom and the sharing of Western wisdom with the world. And one particular gift that the West shared was the art of reasoning. Now reasoning was not invented by the West. It's inherent in all cultures and civilizations. Amartya Sen has described how deeply embedded it is in Indian civilization. Yet there's also no doubt that it was the West that carried the art of reasoning to a much higher level. And through the Scientific Revolution, the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution, the West really raised it forcefully, and equally importantly used this, applied it to solve many major practical problems. And the West then shared this art of applied reasoning with the rest of the world, and I can tell you that it led to what I call three silent revolutions. And as an Asian, I can describe how these silent revolutions transformed Asia.
但我收到的最大禮物 是接受西方教育。 自從我個人走過這個 從貧困的第三世界 到舒適的中產階級的旅程後, 我能以強烈的信念談論 西方的智慧,和西方 與世界分享智慧的影響。 一件西方分享的特別禮物 就是推理的藝術。 推理並非西方所發明, 全部的文化和文明本來就有。 阿馬蒂亞·庫馬爾·森描述 它深嵌在印度的文明中。 然而毫無疑問, 是西方將推理藝術 推向了更高的層次。 通過科學革命、 啟蒙運動、 工業革命, 西方確實強而有力地 提升推理的藝術, 同樣重要的是 還用它來解決許多重大的實際問題。 然後西方與世界其他的地方 分享這種應用推理的藝術, 我可以告訴你, 它導致了我說的三次「無聲革命」。 身為亞洲人, 我能描述這些無聲的革命 如何改變了亞洲。
The first revolution was in economics. The main reason why so many Asian economies, including the communist societies of China and Vietnam, have performed so spectacularly well in economic development, is because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementing free market economics -- a gift from the West. Adam Smith was right. If you let markets decide, productivity goes up.
第一次革命是經濟。 許多亞洲經濟體—— 中國和越南共產主義社會包括在內—— 能在經濟發展方面表現如此出色, 主要是因為它們最終理解、吸收 並實施自由市場經濟—— 來自西方的禮物。 亞當史密斯是對的, 如果任由市場決定, 生產力就會提高。
The second gift was psychological. Here too I can speak from personal experience. When I was young, my mother and her generation believed that life was determined by fate. You couldn't do anything about it. My generation and the generation of Asians after me, believe that we can take charge and we can improve our lives. And this may explain, for example, the spike of entrepreneurship you see all throughout Asia today.
第二個禮物是心理上的。 也可以用我個的人經驗談。 我年輕時, 家母和她那一代的人 相信生命由命運決定, 你無能為力。 我這一代 和在我之後的亞洲人世代 相信我們能夠掌控、 能夠改善我們的生活。 舉個例子, 這可以解釋你今天 在亞洲各地看到的創業高峰。
And if you travel through Asia today, you will also see the results of the third revolution: the revolution of good governance. Now as a result of good governance -- travel in Asia, you see better health care, better education, better infrastructure, better public policies. It's a different world.
如果你今天在亞洲旅行, 你也會看到 第三次革命的結果: 善治的革命。 由於良好的治理—— 在亞洲各地看得到 更好的醫療保健、 更好的教育、 更好的基礎設施、 更好的公共政策。 是個不一樣的世界。
Now having transformed the world through the sharing of Western wisdom with the rest of the world, the logical and rational response of the West should have been to say, "Hey, we have to adjust and adapt to this new world." Instead, the West chose to go to sleep. Why did it happen? I believe it happened because the West became distracted with two major events. The first event was the end of the Cold War. Yes, the end of the Cold War was a great victory. The West defeated the mighty Soviet Union without firing a shot. Amazing. But you know, when you have a great victory like this, it also leads to arrogance and hubris. And this hubris was best captured in a very famous essay by Francis Fukuyama called "The End of History?" Now, Fukuyama was putting across a very sophisticated message, but all that the West heard from this essay was that we, the liberal democracies, we have succeeded, we don't have to change, we don't have to adapt, it's only the rest of the world that has to change and adapt. Unfortunately, like a dangerous opiate, this essay did a lot of brain damage to the West because it put them to sleep just at precisely the moment when China and India were waking up and the West didn't adjust and adapt.
在與世界其他國家分享西方的智慧, 改變了世界之後, 西方的邏輯和理性反應本該是: 「嘿,我們必須調整 和適應這個新世界。」 然而相反地,西方選擇沈睡。 為什麼會這樣? 我相信是因為 西方因兩件大事而分心了。 第一件事是冷戰結束。 是的,冷戰的結束 是一次偉大的勝利。 西方在不發一槍一彈的情況下 擊敗了強大的蘇聯。 很驚人。 但要知道,這樣的偉大勝利 也會導致傲慢和狂妄自大。 弗朗西斯·福山(Francis Fukuyama) 一篇名為〈歷史的終結〉的著名文章 最能捕捉這種狂妄自大。 福山傳遞非常複雜的訊息, 但西方從這篇文章中只聽到: 我們自由民主國家已經成功, 我們不需改變, 我們無需適應, 世界其他地方必須要改變和適應。 不幸的是,就像 危險的鴉片製劑一樣, 這篇文章造成西方巨大的腦傷, 因為在中國和印度醒來 與西方尚未調整和適應的關鍵時刻, 它使得西方睡著了。
The second major event was 9/11, which happened in 2001. And as we know, 9/11 caused a lot of shock and grief. I personally experienced the shock and grief because I was in Manhattan when 9/11 happened. 9/11 also generated a lot of anger, and in this anger, the United States decided to invade Afghanistan and later, Iraq. And unfortunately, partly as a result of this anger, the West didn't notice the significance of another event that happened also in 2001. China joined the World Trade Organization.
第二個重大事件是 9/11 事件, 發生在 2001 年。 正如眾所週知, 9/11 引起許多震驚和悲痛。 我個人也經歷了震驚和悲傷, 因為 9/11 事件發生時我在曼哈頓。 9/11 也引發了眾多憤怒, 在憤怒當中,美國決定入侵阿富汗, 後來又入侵伊拉克。 不幸的是, 部分由於這憤怒, 西方沒注意到 2001 年發生的 另一起事件的重要性: 中國加入了世界貿易組織。
Now, when you suddenly inject 900 million new workers into the global capitalist system, it would naturally lead to what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction. Western workers lost their jobs, they saw their incomes stagnate, clearly people had to think about new competitive policies, workers needed retraining, workers needed new skills. None of this was done. So partly as a result of this, the United States of America became the only major developed society where the average income of the bottom 50 percent -- yes, 50 percent -- average income went down over a 30-year period, from 1980 to 2010. So partly, as a result of this, it led eventually to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, who exploited the anger of the working classes, who are predominantly white. It also contributed to the rise of populism in Europe. And one wonders, could this populism have been avoided if the West had not been distracted by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?
當全球資本主義體系 突然注入了 9 億個新工人時, 自然會導致經濟學家約瑟夫·熊彼特 所謂的「創造性破壞」。 西方工人失業, 看到他們的收入停滯不前, 顯然人們不得不考慮新的競爭政策, 工人需要再培訓, 工人需要新的技能。 這些都沒做。 這是部分的原因, 它導致美國 成為主要已開發國家中 平均收入較低的半數國人—— 沒錯,50% 的人—— 30 年來平均收入下降的唯一國家, 從 1980 年到 2010年。 這是部分原因, 最終導致 2016 年川普當選總統, 他利用了工人階級—— 主要是白人——的憤怒。 這也促成了歐洲民粹主義的興起。 有人納悶, 如果西方在冷戰結束 和 9/11 之前沒有分心的話, 能否避免這種民粹主義?
But the big question we face today is this: Is it too late? Has the West lost everything? And my answer is that it's not too late. It is possible for the West to recover and come back in strength. And using the Western art of reasoning, I would recommend that the West adopt a new "three-m" strategy: minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian.
但我們今天面臨的重大問題是: 為時已晚了嗎? 西方失去了一切嗎? 我的回答是:為時未晚。 西方能夠復原 和再起。 用西方的推理藝術, 我建議西方採用新的「三 M」策略: 極簡主義(minimalist)、 多邊主義(multilateral) 和馬基維利主義(Machiavellian)。
(Laughter)
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Why minimalist? Now even though Western domination has ended, the West continues to intervene and interfere in the affairs of many other societies. This is unwise. This is generating anger and resentment, especially in Islamic societies. It's also draining the resources and spirits of Western societies. Now I know that the Islamic world is having difficulties modernizing. It will have to find its way, but it's more likely to do so if it is left alone to do so. Now I can say this with some conviction because I come from a region, Southeast Asia, which has almost as many Muslims as the Arab world. 266 million Muslims. Southeast Asia is also one of the most diverse continents on planet earth, because you also have 146 million Christians, 149 million Buddhists -- Mahayana Buddhists and Hinayana Buddhists -- and you also have millions of Taoists and Confucianists and Hindus and even communists. And once known as "the Balkans of Asia," southeast Asia today should be experiencing a clash of civilizations. Instead, what you see in southeast Asia is one of the most peaceful and prosperous corners of planet earth with the second-most successful regional multilateral organization, ASEAN. So clearly, minimalism can work. The West should try it out.
為什麼用極簡主義? 儘管西方的支配已成過去, 西方仍繼續干預、干涉 許多其他社會的事務。 這很不明智, 引起憤怒和怨恨, 尤其在伊斯蘭的社會裡。 它也正在損耗西方 社會的資源和精神。 我知道伊斯蘭世界 正面臨現代化的困境, 它必須找到自己的方式, 但如果放手由它自己做, 就更可能辦得到。 我懷抱著信念這樣說, 因為我來自東南亞地區, 這個地區裡的穆斯林 幾乎和阿拉伯世界裡的一樣多。 有 2.66 億個穆斯林。 東南亞也是地球上 最多樣化的陸塊之一, 因為那裡還擁有 1.46 億名基督徒、 1.49 億名佛教徒—— 大乘和小乘的佛教徒—— 還有數百萬道家、儒家和印度教徒, 甚至共產黨人。 東南亞曾經被稱為 「亞洲的巴爾幹半島」, 今天本應經歷著文明的衝突。 相反地,你所看到的東南亞 是地球上最和平、 最繁榮的角落之一, 有著第二成功的區域多邊組織: 東南亞國家協會。 很明顯極簡主義能奏效, 西方應該嘗試一下。
(Laughter)
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But I'm also aware that minimalism cannot solve all the problems. There are some hard problems that have to be dealt with: Al-Qaeda, ISIS -- they remain dangerous threats. They must be found, they must be destroyed. The question is, is it wise for the West, which represents 12 percent of the world's population -- yes, 12 percent -- to fight these threats on its own or to fight with the remaining 88 percent of the world's population? And the logical and rational answer is that you should work with the remaining 88 percent.
但我也意識到極簡主義 無法解決所有的問題。 有些難題需要處理: 基地組織、伊斯蘭國 仍然是危險的威脅。 必須找到它們、摧毀它們。 問題是,這樣做明智嗎, 由只佔世界人口 12% 的西方—— 沒錯,12%—— 單獨對抗這些威脅, 還是與世上其餘的 88% 人口聯手對抗呢? 理性的答案應該是 與其餘的 88% 人合作。
Now where does one go if you want to get the support of humanity? There's only one place: the United Nations. Now I've been ambassador to the UN twice. Maybe that makes me a bit biased, but I can tell you that working with the UN can lead to success. Why is it that the first Iraq war, fought by President George H. W. Bush, succeeded? While the second Iraq war, fought by his son, President George W. Bush, failed? One key reason is that the senior Bush went to the UN to get the support of the global community before fighting the war in Iraq. So multilateralism works. There's another reason why we have to work with the UN. The world is shrinking. We are becoming a small, interdependent, global village. All villages need village councils. And the only global village counsel we have, as the late UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said, is the UN.
如果想獲得人們的支持, 應該去哪裡? 只有一個地方: 聯合國。 我擔任駐聯合國大使兩次。 也許這讓我有點偏頗, 但我能告訴你 和聯合國合作能帶來成功。 為什麼老布希總統 在第一次伊拉克戰爭中成功, 而他的兒子小布希總統 在第二次伊拉克戰爭中失敗了呢? 其中一個關鍵原因是 在出兵伊拉克之前, 老布希總統前往聯合國 尋求全球社會的支持。 多邊主義是有效的。 另一個必須與聯合國合作的原因是 世界正在縮小, 正在成為小型、相互依存的地球村。 所有的村里都需要村民代表大會。 正如已故的聯合國秘書長 科菲·安南所說的, 我們唯一擁有的全球村 村民代表大會就是聯合國。
Now as a geopolitical analyst, I do know that it's often considered naive to work with the UN. So now let me inject my Machiavellian point. Now Machiavelli is a figure who's often derided in the West, but the liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin reminded us that the goal of Machiavelli was to promote virtue, not evil. So what is the Machiavellian point? It's this: what is the best way for the West to constrain the new rising powers that are emerging? And the answer is that the best way to constrain them is through multilateral rules and multilateral norms, multilateral institutions and multilateral processes.
身為地緣政治分析家, 我明白與聯合國合作 往往被視為天真。 所以現在讓我注入 我的馬基維利觀點。 馬基維利是個經常 被西方嘲笑的人物, 但自由派哲學家 以賽亞·柏林提醒我們, 馬基維利的目標是促進美德, 不是邪惡。 那麼,什麼是馬基維利觀點呢? 如下: 什麼是西方限制 正在崛起的新興大國的最佳辦法呢? 最佳的限制方式是 是透過多邊規則和多邊規範, 多邊機構和多邊進程。
Now let me conclude with one final, big message. As a longtime friend of the West, I'm acutely aware of how pessimistic Western societies have become. Many in the West don't believe that a great future lies ahead for them, that their children will not have better lives. So please do not fear the future or the rest of the world. Now I can say this with some conviction, because as a Hindu Sindhi, I actually feel a direct cultural connection with society's diverse cultures and societies all the way from Tehran to Tokyo. And more than half of humanity lives in this space, so with this direct cultural connection, I can say with great conviction that if the West chooses to adopt a wiser strategy of being minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian, the rest of the world will be happy to work with the West. So a great future lies ahead for humanity. Let's embrace it together.
最後讓我用一個重大的訊息總結。 身為西方的老朋友, 我敏銳地意識到 西方社會的悲觀情緒。 許多西方人不相信 自己會有美好的未來, 他們的孩子將無法擁有更好的生活。 請不要害怕未來 或其餘的世界。 我相信, 因為身為印度教信徒, 我真的感受到直接的聯繫, 與社會和社會多元文化的 直接聯繫, 從德黑蘭一直到東京。 超過一半的人生活在這個空間裡, 所以,透過這種直接的文化聯繫, 我可以非常有信心地說, 如果西方明智地選擇採取 更簡約的、 多邊的,和馬基維利策略, 其餘的世界將會樂與西方合作。 因此,人類面臨著美好的未來。 讓我們一起擁抱這未來。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
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