The Internet, the Web as we know it, the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about -- is already less than 5,000 days old. So all of the things that we've seen come about, starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth, which we couldn't even imagine happening before, all these things rolling into our lives, just this abundance of things that are right before us, sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop. This kind of cornucopia of stuff just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed. It's really amazing that all this stuff is here. (Laughter) It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come. And I know that 10 years ago, if I had told you that this was all coming, you would have said that that's impossible. There's simply no economic model that that would be possible. And if I told you it was all coming for free, you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming. You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist. And yet it's here.
互聯網,又稱網絡, 我們所說的網路, 歷史還不到5000天。 這期間發生的所有事情, 從地球的衛星圖片開始好了。 都是你以前無法想像會發生的, 這些闖入我們生活的所有東西, 這些多采多姿的東西,就在我們眼前, 在筆記型電腦或桌上型電腦上。 這樣的東西像聚寶盆一樣, 永遠不會停止,真是令人驚訝,但我們好像不覺得驚奇。 真的很神奇,所有東西都在這兒。 (笑聲) 在短短5000天之內,所有東西都出現了。 如果我在10年前告訴你, 這些東西將要來臨, 你會說,這是不可能的。 原因很簡單,沒有任何一套經濟模型能支持它的可能性。 如果我又說,它會是免費的。 你會回答,你在作夢。 你是空想家、你狂熱的樂觀主義者。 然而,它就在這兒。
The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago, as I looked at what even Wired was talking about, we thought it was going to be TV, but better. That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting was going to be coming. And it turns out that that's not what it was. First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was. And so one of the things that I think we're learning -- if you think about, like, Wikipedia, it's something that was simply impossible. It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice. And if you take all these things that are impossible, I think one of the things that we're learning from this era, from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible, because we're unprepared for it.
還有,10年前 我看到 Wired (連線雜誌) 上說, 我們認為下一個產物將會是電視,比電視更好的東西。 它已經是典範, 所以大家都這麼認為它會來臨。 結果,它卻不是大家所想像的。 第一、 它是個不可能;第二、它以前沒有發生過。 我想我們學到經驗, 想想維基百科 就是個不可能的例子 理論上不可行,但實際上卻可行。 如果你能接受這些不可能, 從這個紀元、從過去10年裡, 我們學到,我們最好接受不可能的事, 因為我們還沒準備好。
So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days. But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days, what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days? So, I have a kind of a simple story, and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making, this thing that has happened in 5,000 days -- that's all these computers, all these handhelds, all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers -- basically what we're getting out of all these connections is we're getting one machine. If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices are actually just little windows into those machines, but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.
因此我對於未來5000天感到好奇。 看看過去5000天發生的事, 下一個5000天會有什麼事發生呢? 我有一個簡單的報導, 它提示我們應該好好思考,在下個5000天裡, 我們將製造出什麼,將發生什麼事。 藉時,所有電腦、掌上設備、 手機、筆記型電腦、伺服器…等 簡單地說,所有的連接, 都將形成一部機器。 "唯一"的一部機器,我們的掌上設備, 不過是個小小視窗 我們正在建造的是一部唯一涵蓋全球的機器。
And so I began to think about that. And it turned out that this machine happens to be the most reliable machine that we've ever made. It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted. And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made that runs the number of hours, the number of days. 5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable. And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days; the Web is only 5,000 days. So, I was trying to basically make measurements. What are the dimensions of this machine? And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are all around the globe on all the computers. And there is a 100 billion clicks per day. And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.
我發覺到 這部機器正是人類 有史以來創造過、最可靠的機器。 它從沒當機,它永不停止運算, 比起我們製造過的任何機器的 工作時數、工作天數,都要來得持久。 5000天不間斷地運行,真是不可置信。 當然 Internet 的歷史超過5000天, 我是指 Web 不過5000天歷史 所以我試著測量這部機器, 它到底有多大 我開始計算全世界的電腦上, 總共發生幾次滑鼠點擊。 結果是 1天1千億次點擊。 全世界網頁之間有55兆個連結。
And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions, and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer, talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless? Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell, but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet, if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet. There's two million emails per second. So it's a very big number. It's just a huge machine, and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet. So here's the specifications, just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it: 170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links, emails running at two megahertz itself, 31 kilohertz text messaging, 246 exabyte storage. That's a big disk. That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM. And the total traffic on this is running at seven terabytes per second. Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes. So every second, half of the Library of Congress is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.
因此,我領悟到它是另一種規模。 我做了一個清單,攝影家克里斯喬丹說過, 當數字太過巨大時,就失去意義了。 就是這個清單,不是很好閱讀。 如果把網路上,所有電腦上的所有晶片都計入的話, 網路上共有10億顆電腦晶片。 每秒有2百萬封電子郵件產生。 這是一個極大的數字。 它是一個極大的機器。 它還用掉地球上5%的電力。 這是它的明細, 如果畫成一張規格表的話, 它擁有170千兆顆電晶體、55兆個連結, 電子郵件以每秒2百萬赫傳送, 文字簡訊以每秒3萬1千赫傳送, 擁有 246 exabytes (10的18次方) 儲存空間。這可是一個很大的磁碟。 有很多儲存空間,記憶體 (RAM) 為 9 exabytes。 它的流量 為每秒7兆位元組(TB)。 Brewster提過,美國國會圖書館擁有大約20兆位元組(TB)的資料。 也就是說,每秒就有半個國會圖書館 掃過這部機器,這是一部超大機器。
So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day, 55 trillion links is almost the same as the number of synapses in your brain. A quadrillion transistors is almost the same as the number of neurons in your brain. So to a first approximation, we have these things -- twenty petahertz synapse firings. Of course, the memory is really huge. But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size -- and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain. Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works. However, your brain isn't doubling every two years. So if we say this machine right now that we've made is about one HB, one human brain, if we look at the rate that this is increasing, 30 years from now, there'll be six billion HBs. So by the year 2040, the total processing of this machine will exceed a total processing power of humanity,
我還發現,1天1千億次滑鼠點擊 和55兆個連結,幾乎就是 大腦突觸的數量。 1千兆顆電晶體, 幾乎等同於大腦的神經數量。 這部機器每秒產生 20千兆赫次突觸激發。 想當然的,記憶空間相當龐大。 從剛剛的數據看來,這部機器的規格、 與複雜度可以說是,等同於人腦。 因為人類大腦的運作方式和網路的運作方式差不多, 只不過,人腦不會每2年倍數成長。 假設這部機器 現在等於1個人腦。 以它的成長速率, 在30年後,它會等於60億個人腦。 意即,到了2040年,這部機器 處理原始資料的能力將超越人類。
in raw bits and stuff. And this is, I think, where Ray Kurzweil and others get this little chart saying that we're going to cross. So, what about that? Well, here's a couple of things. I have three kind of general things I would like to say, three consequences of this. First, that basically what this machine is doing is embodying. We're giving it a body. And that's what we're going to do in the next 5,000 days -- we're going to give this machine a body. And the second thing is, we're going to restructure its architecture. And thirdly, we're going to become completely codependent upon it.
我想這就是, 以上數值圖表想表達的。 所以呢?嗯,還有幾件事, 有3件 我想說是3項推論。 第一、這部機器正在實體化 在下一個5000天,我們將會 賦予這部機器一個身體。 第二、我們將重組它的構造。 第三、我們將要完全地與之共存。
So let me go through those three things. First of all, we have all these things in our hands. We think they're all separate devices, but in fact, every screen in the world is looking into the one machine. These are all basically portals into that one machine. The second thing is that -- some people call this the cloud, and you're kind of touching the cloud with this. And so in some ways, all you really need is a cloudbook. And the cloudbook doesn't have any storage. It's wireless. It's always connected. There's many things about it. It becomes very simple, and basically what you're doing is you're just touching the machine, you're touching the cloud and you're going to compute that way. So the machine is computing.
讓我一一說明。 第一、我們手上握著不少東西裝置, 我們認為它們是獨立的 但事實上,世界上 所有的螢幕都進入這一部機器查詢。 基本上,這些螢幕是入口。 第二、人們所說的雲端運算。 你得以接觸網路(cloud)。 只需要一台cloudbook, 上面沒有任何儲存空間, 永遠保持無線上網。 結構非常簡單。 基本上,你只要觸摸這部機器, 觸摸網路 (cloud) 就能進行運算, 這部機器就會計算。
And in some ways, it's sort of back to the kind of old idea of centralized computing. But everything, all the cameras, and the microphones, and the sensors in cars and everything is connected to this machine. And everything will go through the Web. And we're seeing that already with, say, phones. Right now, phones don't go through the Web, but they are beginning to, and they will. And if you imagine what, say, just as an example, what Google Labs has in terms of experiments with Google Docs, Google Spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah -- all these things are going to become Web based. They're going through the machine. And I am suggesting that every bit will be owned by the Web. Right now, it's not. If you do spreadsheets and things at work, a Word document, they aren't on the Web, but they are going to be. They're going to be part of this machine. They're going to speak the Web language. They're going to talk to the machine. The Web, in some sense, is kind of like a black hole that's sucking up everything into it. And so every thing will be part of the Web. So every item, every artifact that we make, will have embedded in it some little sliver of Web-ness and connection, and it will be part of this machine, so that our environment -- kind of in that ubiquitous computing sense -- our environment becomes the Web. Everything is connected.
有點像是回到 從前的中央電腦概念。 而且所有東西,所有攝影機、麥克風、 汽車感應器等等, 都連接到這部機器。 每一樣都會經過網路。 我們已經使用手機連線, 現在手機還沒經過web, 但它們將要,也一定會經過網路。 你可以想像以 Google 實驗室 (Google Lab) 為例, Google文件、Google試算表等等, 這些東西都將建立於網路之上。 它們都會經過這部機器。 我想每一個位元都將屬於網路。 現在還不是這樣,如果你製作一些試算表 和文件等等,它們還不在網站上, 但它們將會。它們會成為這部機器的一部份。 它們會使用網站語言。 它們會和這部機器交談。 網路就像黑洞, 把一切都吸進去。 每一件東西都成為網路的一部份。 將來我們製造的每一件東西, 都會嵌入一片小小的網路連結器, 每件東西都將成為這機器的一部份。 這機器會無時無刻地運算, 我們的周遭變成網路,每一樣東西都互相連結。
Now, with RFIDs and other things -- whatever technology it is, it doesn't really matter. The point is that everything will have embedded in it some sensor connecting it to the machine, and so we have, basically, an Internet of things. So you begin to think of a shoe as a chip with heels, and a car as a chip with wheels, because basically most of the cost of manufacturing cars is the embedded intelligence and electronics in it, and not the materials. A lot of people think about the new economy as something that was going to be a disembodied, alternative, virtual existence, and that we would have the old economy of atoms. But in fact, what the new economy really is is the marriage of those two, where we embed the information, and the digital nature of things into the material world. That's what we're looking forward to. That is where we're going -- this union, this convergence of the atomic and the digital.
現在,我們使用無線射頻辨識系統(RFID) 但用什麼技術都無妨,重點是, 每一樣東西都將內建連結到這部機器, 基本上,我們將擁有 "Internet of Things" (實物的網際網路) 你可以這麼想,鞋子是有鞋跟的晶片; 車子是有輪子的晶片。 車子的大半成本將來自於 它內嵌的智慧和電子設備,而不是原物料。 很多人認為新的經濟結構 將會是脫離現實的, 另一種形式的虛擬存在, 過去的經濟結構是原子。 但事實上,新的經濟結構應該是 這兩種的結合,我們把資訊 和數位格式的東西放入物質世界。 這才是我們期待的。這才是我們 我們前進的目標,是一個結合一個原子與數位的轉化。
And so one of the consequences of that, I believe, is that where we have this sort of spectrum of media right now -- TV, film, video -- that basically becomes one media platform. And while there's many differences in some senses, they will share more and more in common with each other. So that the laws of media, such as the fact that copies have no value, the value's in the uncopiable things, the immediacy, the authentication, the personalization. The media wants to be liquid. The reason why things are free is so that you can manipulate them, not so that they are "free" as in "beer," but "free" as in "freedom." And the network effects rule, meaning that the more you have, the more you get. The first fax machine -- the person who bought the first fax machine was an idiot, because there was nobody to fax to. But here she became an evangelist, recruiting others to get the fax machines because it made their purchase more valuable. Those are the effects that we're going to see. Attention is the currency.
所以我相信結論會是, 現有的媒體、 電視、電影、錄像等等,將會轉變成一種平台。 無論它們之間有多少差異, 在某種程度上,它們會擁有愈來愈多的共同點。 所以一些媒體定律像是:"複製沒有價值", "價值來自無法複製的東西", 像是即時性、認證、個人化 "媒體希望能流通", 它們之所以是自由的,是為了讓你能任意使用, 在此free不是指"免費"使用,而是指"自由"使用。 還有 "網路效應規則", 意思是,愈多人使用,價值愈高。 舉例來說,第一台傳真機,買下第一台傳真機的人 是笨蛋嗎?因為沒有其他人可以接收傳真呀! 於是他/她成為一個傳播者,號召其他人 也購買傳真機,因為這樣就能使傳真機更有價值。 這些就是我們將要看到的影響力。 "注意力就是貨幣"。
So those laws are going to kind of spread throughout all media. And the other thing about this embodiment is that there's kind of what I call the McLuhan reversal. McLuhan was saying, "Machines are the extensions of the human senses." And I'm saying, "Humans are now going to be the extended senses of the machine," in a certain sense. So we have a trillion eyes, and ears, and touches, through all our digital photographs and cameras. And we see that in things like Flickr, or Photosynth, this program from Microsoft that will allow you to assemble a view of a touristy place from the thousands of tourist snapshots of it. In a certain sense, the machine is seeing through the pixels of individual cameras.
這些定律將會遍布所有媒體。 另一件關於實體化的事是, 類似我們說的,麥克盧漢轉化。 他說,機器是人類感官(意識)的延伸。 但我說,某種程度上人類將成為 機器的延伸感官(意識)。 因此,透過所有數位相片和相機, 我們擁有1兆隻眼睛、耳朵和觸覺。 就像 Flickr 或Photosynth,一款微軟出品的程式, 可以將上千張遊客們拍下的相片, 拼貼(還原)成景點的樣貌。 某種程度上來說,這部機器正看著,每一台相機的每一個畫素。
Now, the second thing that I want to talk about was this idea of restructuring, that what the Web is doing is restructuring. And I have to warn you, that what we'll talk about is -- I'm going to give my explanation of a term you're hearing, which is a "semantic Web."
第二、我想談談重建的概念, web正在重建。 我先聲明,接下來 我要為語意網(semantic web)下個人的解釋。
So first of all, the first stage that we've seen of the Internet was that it was going to link computers. And that's what we called the Net; that was the Internet of nets. And we saw that, where you have all the computers of the world. And if you remember, it was a kind of green screen with cursors, and there was really not much to do, and if you wanted to connect it, you connected it from one computer to another computer. And what you had to do was -- if you wanted to participate in this, you had to share packets of information. So you were forwarding on. You didn't have control. It wasn't like a telephone system where you had control of a line: you had to share packets.
第一階段,我們過去看到的 Internet,是把電腦連結起來。 也就是我們說的網絡, 那是"Internet of Net"(網的網際網路)。 如果你還記得當時的電腦,螢幕上都是綠色的字還有游標, 不能做太多事,如果想要連結, 就要從一台電腦連到另一台電腦 如果想要參與, 就要分享一份資料封包。 然後往前傳遞,你不能控制什麼, 不像電話系統,你可以控制電話的另一端, 你只是分享封包。
The second stage that we're in now is the idea of linking pages. So in the old one, if I wanted to go on to an airline Web page, I went from my computer, to an FTP site, to another airline computer. Now we have pages -- the unit has been resolved into pages, so one page links to another page. And if I want to go in to book a flight, I go into the airline's flight page, the website of the airline, and I'm linking to that page. And what we're sharing were links, so you had to be kind of open with links. You couldn't deny -- if someone wanted to link to you, you couldn't stop them. You had to participate in this idea of opening up your pages to be linked by anybody. So that's what we were doing.
第二階段,也就是現在是連結網頁的概念。 過去,如果要到航空公司的網頁, 我得先從自己的電腦連到FTP站,再連到航空公司的電腦。 現在,我們有網頁,單位變成網頁 從一頁連到其他頁。 如果我想訂機位, 就連到航班的頁面,航空公司的網站, 我們之間分享的就是連結。 你得打開連結。 你不能拒絕連結過來的人, 無法阻止,你得參與這個概念, 就是打開你的頁面,讓任何人都能連進來。 這就是我們現在做的。
We're now entering to the third stage, which is what I'm talking about, and that is where we link the data. So, I don't know what the name of this thing is. I'm calling it the one machine. But we're linking data. So we're going from machine to machine, from page to page, and now data to data. So the difference is, is that rather than linking from page to page, we're actually going to link from one idea on a page to another idea, rather than to the other page. So every idea is basically being supported -- or every item, or every noun -- is being supported by the entire Web. It's being resolved at the level of items, or ideas, or words, if you want. So besides physically coming out again into this idea that it's not just virtual, it's actually going out to things. So something will resolve down to the information about a particular person, so every person will have a unique ID. Every person, every item will have a something that will be very specific, and will link to a specific representation of that idea or item. So now, in this new one, when I link to it, I would link to my particular flight, my particular seat. And so, giving an example of this thing, I live in Pacifica, rather than -- right now Pacifica is just sort of a name on the Web somewhere. The Web doesn't know that that is actually a town, and that it's a specific town that I live in, but that's what we're going to be talking about. It's going to link directly to -- it will know, the Web will be able to read itself and know that that actually is a place, and that whenever it sees that word, "Pacifica," it knows that it actually has a place, latitude, longitude, a certain population.
現在我們要進入第三階段, 我們連結資料的地方。 我不知道這個東西的名字, 先叫它 the one machine,我們開始連結資料。 從機器連結機器 到網頁連結網頁,現在是資料連結資料。 不同點在於,現在我們並非連結頁面, 而是連結網頁上的一個概念 到另一個概念,而不是連到另一個網頁。 所以基本上,每一個概念 或每一個項目或每一個名詞,都被整個網路所支援。 它已經能解析到項目或概念或單字的程度, 它除了從概念裡走出來之外, 它不再只是虛擬,它會實際地連結到物件。 它會一直向下解析 析到一個人的資訊,每一個人都有一個獨一無二的識別ID。 每一個物件都 有明確的識別,而且會被連結到 它特定的表徵。 所以在這個階段裡,我可以連結到 特定的航班、特色的座位, 舉例來說, 我住在Pacifica, 它不過是web上的一個名字。 web並不知道它是一個城市, 且正是我住的地方。 但這正是我們即將要提到的。 它將會直接連結, 網路將能夠自行解讀。 它會知道這是個地名, 以後只要看到Pacifica, 它就知道這是一個地方, 還知道緯度、經度、人口數等資訊。
So here are some of the technical terms, all three-letter things, that you'll see a lot more of. All these things are about enabling this idea of linking to the data. So I'll give you one kind of an example. There's like a billion social sites on the Web. Each time you go into there, you have to tell it again who you are and all your friends are. Why should you be doing that? You should just do that once, and it should know who all your friends are. So that's what you want, is all your friends are identified, and you should just carry these relationships around. All this data about you should just be conveyed, and you should do it once and that's all that should happen. And you should have all the networks of all the relationships between those pieces of data. That's what we're moving into -- where it sort of knows these things down to that level. A semantic Web, Web 3.0, giant global graph -- we're kind of trying out what we want to call this thing. But what's it's doing is sharing data. So you have to be open to having your data shared, which is a much bigger step than just sharing your Web page, or your computer. And all these things that are going to be on this are not just pages, they are things. Everything we've described, every artifact or place, will be a specific representation, will have a specific character that can be linked to directly. So we have this database of things. And so there's actually a fourth thing that we have not get to, that we won't see in the next 10 years, or 5,000 days, but I think that's where we're going to. And as the Internet of things -- where I'm linking directly to the particular things of my seat on the plane -- that that physical thing becomes part of the Web. And so we are in the middle of this thing that's completely linked, down to every object in the little sliver of a connection that it has.
這裡有幾個科技名詞,都由3個字母組成。 你應該還看過更多。 這些東西都與實現"資料連結"的概念有關。 我要舉一個例子, 網路上有10億個社群網站。 你每進一個就要再寫一次你的資料,你是某某某, 你的朋友有誰誰誰。 為什麼要這麼做?應該做一次就行了。 它就應該要知道你的所有朋友。 這就你要的,所有朋友都能辨識出來, 你就可以把人際關係帶著走。 所有關於你的資料都應該要被傳遞, 你只需要做一次,就這樣。 你應該要有這些資料之間的關係網絡。 這些資料之間的關係網絡。 這是我們的下一步,網路要能理解到這種程度。 Semantic Web(語意網)、Web 3.0、Giant Global Graph 我們還在思考該怎麼稱呼它。 它主要是分享資料。 所以你要開放你的資料, 比起分享網頁或電腦,對人類而言是很大的一步。 上面的東西, 不只是網頁而是物件。 所有談論的東西、所有產品、所有地點 都會是一個特定的表徵, 都會有一個特定的字符讓我們直接連結, 我們會有一個"物品資料庫"。 事實上,還有第四階段,是我們還沒有到達的, 即使在下一個5000天 或下一個10年,也都還看不到。 不過我想我們終將走到"Internet of Things"的階段。 我可以直接連結到我的機位的景象, 這樣實際的東西會成為網路的一部份。 所以,我們處在一個 "完全連結"的世界, 每一個物件都內嵌連結。
So, the last thing I want to talk about is this idea that we're going to be codependent. It's always going to be there, and the closer it is, the better. If you allow Google to, it will tell you your search history. And I found out by looking at it that I search most at 11 o'clock in the morning. So I am open, and being transparent to that. And I think total personalization in this new world will require total transparency. That is going to be the price. If you want to have total personalization, you have to be totally transparent. Google. I can't remember my phone number, I'll just ask Google. We're so dependent on this that I have now gotten to the point where I don't even try to remember things -- I'll just Google it. It's easier to do that. And we kind of object at first, saying, "Oh, that's awful." But if we think about the dependency that we have on this other technology, called the alphabet, and writing, we're totally dependent on it, and it's transformed culture. We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing. And so in the same way, we're going to not imagine ourselves without this other machine being there. And what is happening with this is some kind of AI, but it's not the AI in conscious AI, as being an expert, Larry Page told me that that's what they're trying to do, and that's what they're trying to do. But when six billion humans are Googling, who's searching who? It goes both ways. So we are the Web, that's what this thing is. We are going to be the machine. So the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the Web and only better. Just like it wasn't TV and only better. The next 5,000 days, it's not just going to be the Web but only better -- it's going to be something different. And I think it's going to be smarter. It'll have an intelligence in there, that's not, again, conscious. But it'll anticipate what we're doing, in a good sense. Secondly, it's become much more personalized. It will know us, and that's good. And again, the price of that will be transparency. And thirdly, it's going to become more ubiquitous in terms of filling your entire environment, and we will be in the middle of it. And all these devices will be portals into that.
最後一個概念是, 相互依存。 它永遠都在,愈近愈好。 如果你授權Google,它可以給你,你的搜尋記錄。 我看著搜尋記錄, 發現今早11點我查了不少東西。 原來我是開放的,我是透明的。 我想在這個新世界裡,完全地個人化,需要你全然地透明。 那將付出代價。 如果你要完全地個人化, 你將需要全然地透明。 如果忘記自己的電話號碼,我可以查Google。 我們是多麼的依賴它,我們還沒走到這一步。 不過哪天我或許不再需要記住任何事。 我只要查Google就好了。簡單多了。 我們或許會反感,會說"那真糟"。 但想想,我們不也依賴著 字母和書寫? 我們完全地依賴它們,這不過是種轉變。 我們無法想像沒有字母和書寫的日子。 同樣的,我們無法想像 沒有這部機器。 它正在發展一種 人工智慧,並不是擁有個人意識的人工智慧。 這是Larry Page(賴瑞佩吉,Google的創辦人)告訴我的, 這是他們正在努力的方向。 這是他們正在努力的方向。 但是,當60億人同時搜尋時, 是誰在查誰呢?是雙向的。 意即,我們就是web。這就是真相。 我們將會成為這部機器。 所以,在下一個5000天,它不會是web,而會是某個更好的東西。 就像web是比電視更好的東西。 在下一個5000天,它不會是web, 而會是某個更好的東西,它會是個不一樣的東西。 我想,它會更聰明,它會有智慧。 不是擁有個人意識的人工智慧, 而是能在合理的範圍內預測我們的行為。 第二、它會更加個人化。 它會瞭解我們,這是好事。 但代價是,我們必須透明化。 第三、它會更無所不在, 充斥四周,我們身在其中。 我們手上的裝置會是進入它的入口。
So the single idea that I wanted to leave with you is that we have to begin to think about this as not just "the Web, only better," but a new kind of stage in this development. It looks more global. If you take this whole thing, it is a very big machine, very reliable machine, more reliable than its parts. But we can also think about it as kind of a large organism. So we might respond to it more as if this was a whole system, more as if this wasn't a large organism that we are going to be interacting with. It's a "One." And I don't know what else to call it, than the One. We'll have a better word for it. But there's a unity of some sort that's starting to emerge. And again, I don't want to talk about consciousness, I want to talk about it just as if it was a little bacteria, or a volvox, which is what that organism is.
我要給你們的一個觀念就是, 我們必須開始瞭解它不會是web,而會是某個更好的東西, 一個全新的階段和發展, 更全球化 它是個極大的機器,非常可靠, 比它自己的零件可靠, 可以把它想做是一個巨大的有機體。 我們可以與之互動,它甚至超越一個系統, 超越一個與我們互動的巨大有機體, 它是 the ONE。 除了 the ONE,我不知道還能怎麼稱呼它。 我們終會給它一個更好的名字。 重點是,它漸漸形成一種單一性。 再次強調,我不是談論個人意識, 我把它看做像細菌 或團藻的東西,也就是我所說的有機體物質。
So, to do, action, take-away. So, here's what I would say: there's only one machine, and the Web is its OS. All screens look into the One. No bits will live outside the Web. To share is to gain. Let the One read it. It's going to be machine-readable. You want to make something that the machine can read. And the One is us. We are in the One. I appreciate your time. (Applause)
最後,我留下幾個字給大家: "世上只有一部機器,web是它的作業系統" "所有螢幕都通向它,每個位元都在其中" "分享就能獲得,讓 the ONE 看懂" 你會弄些這部機器 看得懂的東西。 "the ONE 就是我們,我們就是 the ONE" 謝謝你們的聆聽 (掌聲)