The Internet, the Web as we know it, the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about -- is already less than 5,000 days old. So all of the things that we've seen come about, starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth, which we couldn't even imagine happening before, all these things rolling into our lives, just this abundance of things that are right before us, sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop. This kind of cornucopia of stuff just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed. It's really amazing that all this stuff is here. (Laughter) It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come. And I know that 10 years ago, if I had told you that this was all coming, you would have said that that's impossible. There's simply no economic model that that would be possible. And if I told you it was all coming for free, you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming. You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist. And yet it's here.
Internet, mreža kakvu znamo, u obliku kakvog znamo -- stvari o kojima svi mi govorimo -- nije starija od 5000 dana. Sve stvari kojima svjedočimo, počevši sa, recimo, satelitskim snimkama cijele Zemlje, koje nismo mogli prije niti zamisliti -- sve te stvari koje se pojavljuju u našim životima, naprosto to mnoštvo stvari, koje se nalaze doslovce ispred nas, kada sjedimo pred laptopom ili stolnim računalom... ... takvo izobilje stvari, koje neprestano dolaze bez naznake kraju, je zadivljujuće, a mi uopće nismo zadivljeni. Stvarno je impresivno da su sve te stvari ovdje. (Smijeh) I to se sve pojavilo u tih 5000 dana. I znam, da kada bih vam prije 10 godina rekao što sve dolazi, vi biste rekli da je to nemoguće. Da jednostavno ne postoji ekonomski model koji bi to omogućio. I ako bi vam rekao da to sve dolazi besplatno, jednostavno bi rekli: "Ti sanjaš." "Ti si kalifornijski utopist." "Ti si lakovjeran optimist." A ipak je ovdje.
The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago, as I looked at what even Wired was talking about, we thought it was going to be TV, but better. That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting was going to be coming. And it turns out that that's not what it was. First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was. And so one of the things that I think we're learning -- if you think about, like, Wikipedia, it's something that was simply impossible. It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice. And if you take all these things that are impossible, I think one of the things that we're learning from this era, from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible, because we're unprepared for it.
Druga stvar koja nam je poznata, za koju smo prije deset godina, o čemu je čak i Wired pisao, mislili da će biti kao televizija, samo bolje. To je bio model; to je bilo ono za što su svi pretpostavljali da je ono što nadolazi. I pokazalo se da to nije ono što se desilo. Kao prvo, bilo je nemoguće... i nije ono što se desilo. Tako da je jedna od stvari, koju mislim da učimo -- ako pomislite npr. na Wikipediju, to nešto što je bilo jednostavno nezamislivo. Nemoguće je u teoriji, ali moguće u praksi. I ako uzmete sve te stvari koje su nemoguće, mislim da je jedna od stvari koje učimo od ove ere, od ovog posljednjeg desetljeća, jest da trebamo postati dobri u vjerovanje u nemoguće, jer nismo spremni na takvo nešto.
So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days. But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days, what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days? So, I have a kind of a simple story, and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making, this thing that has happened in 5,000 days -- that's all these computers, all these handhelds, all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers -- basically what we're getting out of all these connections is we're getting one machine. If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices are actually just little windows into those machines, but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.
Tako da sam znatiželjan što će se dogoditi u slijedećih 5000 dana. Ali ako se ovo sve dogodilo u proteklih 5000 dana, što li će se tek dogoditi u slijedećih 5000 dana? Dakle, imam nešto poput jednostavne priče, koja nagoviještava da je ono o čemu želimo razmišljati, zapravo ono što sada radimo, ova stvar koja se dogodila u proteklih 5000 dana. To su sva ova računala, svi ovi ručni uređaji, svi ovi mobiteli, svi ovi laptopi i svi ovi serveri -- u biti svi ovi uređaji koji su međusobno povezani postaju jedan stroj. Ako postoji samo jedno računalo -- naši mali ručni uređaji i sprave su zapravo samo mali prozori u taj stroj. Mi u biti stvaramo jedan, globalan stroj.
And so I began to think about that. And it turned out that this machine happens to be the most reliable machine that we've ever made. It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted. And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made that runs the number of hours, the number of days. 5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable. And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days; the Web is only 5,000 days. So, I was trying to basically make measurements. What are the dimensions of this machine? And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are all around the globe on all the computers. And there is a 100 billion clicks per day. And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.
I tako sam počeo razmišljati o tome. I pokazalo se da je taj stroj najpouzdaniji stroj kojeg smo ikad napravili. Nikad se nije srušio, i radi neprekidno. Gotovo da nema drugog stroja koji smo napravili, a da radi bez prekida toliko sati, toliko dana. 5000 dana bez prekida -- to je gotovo nevjerojatno. I naravno, Internet je stariji od samo 5000 dana -- samo Web je star 5000 dana. Stoga sam pokušao izvršiti neka mjerenja. Koje su zapravo dimenzije ovog stroja? Počeo sam računajući koliko milijardi klikova ima na svim računalima širom planeta. I to je ukupno 100 milijardi klikova po danu. Postoji 55 bilijuna linkova između svih Web stranica na svijetu.
And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions, and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer, talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless? Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell, but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet, if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet. There's two million emails per second. So it's a very big number. It's just a huge machine, and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet. So here's the specifications, just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it: 170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links, emails running at two megahertz itself, 31 kilohertz text messaging, 246 exabyte storage. That's a big disk. That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM. And the total traffic on this is running at seven terabytes per second. Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes. So every second, half of the Library of Congress is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.
Pa sam počeo razmišljati o drugim oblicima dimenzija, i napravio sam kratku listu -- je li Chris Jordan, fotograf, bio taj koji je govorio o tome da li tako velike brojke postaju besmislene? Dakle, ovdje je cijeli popis. Teško je sa sigurnošću reći, ali trenutno je milijardu PC čipova spojeno na Internet, ako prebrojimo sve čipove u svim računalima koja su trenutno priključena na Internet. Svake sekunde pošalje se dva milijuna e-mailova. To je zaista vrlo velik broj. To je samo ogroman stroj, koji koristi 5 posto ukupne električne energije na planetu. I ovdje su specifikacije, baš kao da radimo tehnički opis za taj stroj: 170 bilijardi tranzistora, 55 bilijuna veza, e-mailovi rade na 2 MHz, slanje tekstualnih poruka na 31 kHz, Prostor za pohranu podataka od 246 heksabajta. To je veliki disk. To je puno podataka -- RAM od 9 heksabajta. I kompletan promet na njemu je sedam terabajta u sekundi. Prema Brewsteru Kongresna knjižnica je veličine dvadeset terabajta. Tako da svake sekunde pola Kongresne knjižnice prolazi ovim strojem. To je velik stroj.
So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day, 55 trillion links is almost the same as the number of synapses in your brain. A quadrillion transistors is almost the same as the number of neurons in your brain. So to a first approximation, we have these things -- twenty petahertz synapse firings. Of course, the memory is really huge. But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size -- and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain. Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works. However, your brain isn't doubling every two years. So if we say this machine right now that we've made is about one HB, one human brain, if we look at the rate that this is increasing, 30 years from now, there'll be six billion HBs. So by the year 2040, the total processing of this machine will exceed a total processing power of humanity,
I tako sam napravio nešto drugo. Izračunao sam da je 100 milijardi klikova na dan, 55 bilijuna linkova je gotovo jednako broju sinapsi u vašem mozgu. Bilijarda tranzistora gotovo je jednaka broju neurona u vašem mozgu. I tako prema prvim procjenama, ova stvar ima -- 20 PHz korištenja sinapsi. Naravno memorija je stvarno ogromna. Ali ovaj stroj je u prvoj aproksimaciji, spram svoje veličine i kompleksnosti, poput -- vašeg mozga. Jer zapravo, tako radi vaš mozak -- otprilike na sličan način kao i Web. Međutim, vaš mozak se ne udvostručuje svake dvije godine. I ako kažemo da je trenutno taj stroj kojeg smo napravili veličine jednog ljudskog mozga, i ako pogledamo brzinu kojom se povećava, za trideset godina će biti velik poput šest milijardi ljudskih mozgova. Prema tome će do 2040. godine, ukupna procesorska snaga tog stroja nadići procesorsku snagu čovječanstva,
in raw bits and stuff. And this is, I think, where Ray Kurzweil and others get this little chart saying that we're going to cross. So, what about that? Well, here's a couple of things. I have three kind of general things I would like to say, three consequences of this. First, that basically what this machine is doing is embodying. We're giving it a body. And that's what we're going to do in the next 5,000 days -- we're going to give this machine a body. And the second thing is, we're going to restructure its architecture. And thirdly, we're going to become completely codependent upon it.
u sirovim bitovima i slično. I mislim da o tome Ray Kurzweil i ostali govore kao stvarima s kojima ćemo se susretati. Dakle, što je sa tim? Pa, ovdje je nekoliko stvari. U biti tri općenite stvari. Želio bi reći; tri posljedice toga. Kao prvo, mislim da taj stroj dobiva oblik -- dajemo mu tijelo. I to je ono što ćemo napraviti u slijedećih 5000 dana - dat ćemo tom stroju oblik. Druga stvar je, da ćemo restrukturirati njegovu arhitekturu. A treća stvar je, da ćemo postati u potpunosti ovisni o njemu.
So let me go through those three things. First of all, we have all these things in our hands. We think they're all separate devices, but in fact, every screen in the world is looking into the one machine. These are all basically portals into that one machine. The second thing is that -- some people call this the cloud, and you're kind of touching the cloud with this. And so in some ways, all you really need is a cloudbook. And the cloudbook doesn't have any storage. It's wireless. It's always connected. There's many things about it. It becomes very simple, and basically what you're doing is you're just touching the machine, you're touching the cloud and you're going to compute that way. So the machine is computing.
Dozvolite mi da detaljno objasnim te tri stvari. Kao prvo, imamo sve te stvari u našim rukama. Mislimo da su sve to različiti uređaji, ali u biti svaki ekran na svijetu gleda u samo jedan stroj. Sve su to zapravo samo prozori u taj stroj. Druga stvar je da to - neki ljudi to zovu oblakom, i mi na neki način dodirujemo taj oblak. Na neki način, sve što vam treba je uređaj za oblak ("cloudbook"). I taj uređaj ne treba nikakav disk. On je bežićan. Uvijek je povezan. Ima puno stvari o njemu. Postaje jako jednostavno, i u osnovi sve što radite je samo dodirivanje stroja, dodirujete oblak i na taj način radite. Tako da taj stroj radi.
And in some ways, it's sort of back to the kind of old idea of centralized computing. But everything, all the cameras, and the microphones, and the sensors in cars and everything is connected to this machine. And everything will go through the Web. And we're seeing that already with, say, phones. Right now, phones don't go through the Web, but they are beginning to, and they will. And if you imagine what, say, just as an example, what Google Labs has in terms of experiments with Google Docs, Google Spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah -- all these things are going to become Web based. They're going through the machine. And I am suggesting that every bit will be owned by the Web. Right now, it's not. If you do spreadsheets and things at work, a Word document, they aren't on the Web, but they are going to be. They're going to be part of this machine. They're going to speak the Web language. They're going to talk to the machine. The Web, in some sense, is kind of like a black hole that's sucking up everything into it. And so every thing will be part of the Web. So every item, every artifact that we make, will have embedded in it some little sliver of Web-ness and connection, and it will be part of this machine, so that our environment -- kind of in that ubiquitous computing sense -- our environment becomes the Web. Everything is connected.
I na neki način, to je povratak stare ideje o centraliziranom računalu. Ali sve, sve kamere, i svi mikrofoni, i senzori u automobilima, sve je to povezano s tim strojem. I sve ići preko Mreže. To već danas možemo vidjeti na primjeru telefona. Još uvijek ne rade svi preko Mreže, ali počinju i uskoro hoće. I ako zamislite, samo kao primjer, što sve Google Labs sadrži; eksperimentiranje s Google dokumentima, Google tablicama, ... Sve te stvari postaju prilagođene za web. Sve prolazi kroz stroj. Pretpostavljam da će svaki bit biti na Webu. Za sada nije -- ako radite s tabličnim kalkulacijama, ili Word dokumentom, oni još nisu na webu, ali će uskoro biti. Oni će biti dio ovog stroja. Oni će govoriti jezik Web-a. Oni će pričati sa strojem. Web je, u nekom smislu, poput crne rupe, koja uvlači sve u sebe. I sve će biti dio weba. Svaki predmet, svaka stvar koju smo izradili biti će pomalo protkana nitima Mreže i biti će dio tog stroja, tako da naše okruženje -- u smislu sveprisutnog računala -- postaje Web. Sve je povezano.
Now, with RFIDs and other things -- whatever technology it is, it doesn't really matter. The point is that everything will have embedded in it some sensor connecting it to the machine, and so we have, basically, an Internet of things. So you begin to think of a shoe as a chip with heels, and a car as a chip with wheels, because basically most of the cost of manufacturing cars is the embedded intelligence and electronics in it, and not the materials. A lot of people think about the new economy as something that was going to be a disembodied, alternative, virtual existence, and that we would have the old economy of atoms. But in fact, what the new economy really is is the marriage of those two, where we embed the information, and the digital nature of things into the material world. That's what we're looking forward to. That is where we're going -- this union, this convergence of the atomic and the digital.
Bilo sa RFID-ovima ili drugim stvarima -- koja god tehnologija bila, zapravo nije ni važno, poanta je da će sve na neki način biti povezana sa strojem, tako da ćemo zapravo imati Internet stvari. I tako da ćemo poćeti gledati na cipele kao na čip s petama, a aute kao čip sa kotačima. Zato je u osnovi većina troškova proizvodnje auta u uključenoj inteligenciji i elektronici u njemu, a ne u materijalima. Veliki broj ljudi razmišlja o novoj ekonomiji kao o nečemu što će biti bez oblika, alternativno virtualno postojanje, i imat ćemo staru ekonomiju atoma. Ali će zapravo nova ekonomija biti spoj tih dvaju, gdje su informacije, i digitalne prirode stvari uklopljeni u materijalni svijet. To je ono ćemu se nadamo. To je ono prema ćemu idemo - ta unija, spoj atomskog i digitalnog.
And so one of the consequences of that, I believe, is that where we have this sort of spectrum of media right now -- TV, film, video -- that basically becomes one media platform. And while there's many differences in some senses, they will share more and more in common with each other. So that the laws of media, such as the fact that copies have no value, the value's in the uncopiable things, the immediacy, the authentication, the personalization. The media wants to be liquid. The reason why things are free is so that you can manipulate them, not so that they are "free" as in "beer," but "free" as in "freedom." And the network effects rule, meaning that the more you have, the more you get. The first fax machine -- the person who bought the first fax machine was an idiot, because there was nobody to fax to. But here she became an evangelist, recruiting others to get the fax machines because it made their purchase more valuable. Those are the effects that we're going to see. Attention is the currency.
I jedna od posljedica toga će, vjerujem biti, ono što sad imamo kao spektar medija -- TV, film, video - to će postati jedna medjiska platforma. I dok postoji još mnogo razlika na neki način, oni će imati sve više i više zajedničkog. I takav će biti zakon medija: činjenica da kopije neće imati neku vrijednost. Vrijednost je u stvarima koje se neće moći kopirati. Neposrednost, autentičnost, personalizacija -- mediji žele biti tekući; razlog zašto su stvari besplatne je tako da možemo manipulirati s njima, i ne tako "besplatne" kao "besplatno pivo", nego besplatne u smislu slobode. I sada mrežni sustavi vladaju - znači da što više imaš, to više dobivaš. Prvi telefaks -- osoba koja je kupila prvi telefaks je bila idiot, zato jer nije imala kome slati faksove. Ali je s tim postala poslanik, regrutirajući druge da nabave telefaks uređaje jer će onda njegova postati vrijednija. To su efekti koje ćemo vidjeti. Pažnja je valuta.
So those laws are going to kind of spread throughout all media. And the other thing about this embodiment is that there's kind of what I call the McLuhan reversal. McLuhan was saying, "Machines are the extensions of the human senses." And I'm saying, "Humans are now going to be the extended senses of the machine," in a certain sense. So we have a trillion eyes, and ears, and touches, through all our digital photographs and cameras. And we see that in things like Flickr, or Photosynth, this program from Microsoft that will allow you to assemble a view of a touristy place from the thousands of tourist snapshots of it. In a certain sense, the machine is seeing through the pixels of individual cameras.
I tako će se ti zakoni širiti preko medija. I druga stvar u vezi ovog dobivanja oblika je ono što zovem McLuhanov preobrat. McLuhan je rekao, "Strojevi su produžetak ljudskih osjetila" I ja kažem, "Ljudi će biti produžena osjetila strojeva", na neki način. Imat ćemo bilijune očiju, ušiju i dodira, sve preko naših digitalnih fotografija i kamera. I sad vidimo stvari poput Flickra, ili Photosyntha, Microsoftovog programa koji će vam omogućiti da sastavite izgled turističkog mjesta od tisuća različitih turističkih fotografija. Na neki način, stroj gleda kroz pixele individualnih kamera.
Now, the second thing that I want to talk about was this idea of restructuring, that what the Web is doing is restructuring. And I have to warn you, that what we'll talk about is -- I'm going to give my explanation of a term you're hearing, which is a "semantic Web."
Druga stvar o kojoj želim pričati je ideja o restrukturiranju -- to je ono što sad web radi. I moram vas upozoriti da je ono o ćemu čemo govoriti -- ono o čemu ću vam dati vlastito objašnjenje termina "semantički web".
So first of all, the first stage that we've seen of the Internet was that it was going to link computers. And that's what we called the Net; that was the Internet of nets. And we saw that, where you have all the computers of the world. And if you remember, it was a kind of green screen with cursors, and there was really not much to do, and if you wanted to connect it, you connected it from one computer to another computer. And what you had to do was -- if you wanted to participate in this, you had to share packets of information. So you were forwarding on. You didn't have control. It wasn't like a telephone system where you had control of a line: you had to share packets.
Kao prvo, početna razina onoga što smo vidjeli od Interneta je međusobno povezivanje računala. I to je ono što zovemo Mreža -- to je Internet sastavljen od mreža. I vidjeli smo kako je ako sva računala na svijetu - i ako se sjećate, nekad su bili zeleni ekrani s kursorima, i nije se baš moglo puno raditi, i ako ste ih željeli umrežiti, spojili ste jedno računalo s drugim I ono što ste trebali činiti, ako ste htjeli sudjelovati u tome, je dijeljenje paketa informacija. Samo ste ih proslijeđivali. Niste imali nikakvu kontrolu. Nije bilo poput telefonskog sustava gdje ste imali kontrolu linije - morali ste dijeliti pakete.
The second stage that we're in now is the idea of linking pages. So in the old one, if I wanted to go on to an airline Web page, I went from my computer, to an FTP site, to another airline computer. Now we have pages -- the unit has been resolved into pages, so one page links to another page. And if I want to go in to book a flight, I go into the airline's flight page, the website of the airline, and I'm linking to that page. And what we're sharing were links, so you had to be kind of open with links. You couldn't deny -- if someone wanted to link to you, you couldn't stop them. You had to participate in this idea of opening up your pages to be linked by anybody. So that's what we were doing.
Druga faza razvoja je bila ideja o povezivanju stranica. I prije, ako ste željeli otići na stranicu avio prijevoznika, morali ste se spojiti s računala na FTP, i onda na drugo računalo avio prijevoznika. I sada imamo stranice -- cjelina je razložena na stranice, tako da se jedna stranica povezuje na drugu. I ako želim rezervirati let, Idem na stranice letova avionske kompanije, web sajt avionskog prijevoznika, i povezujem se na tu stranicu. I ono što dijelimo su linkovi, s kojima ste prisiljeni biti na neki način javni. Ne možete odbiti -- ako se netko želi povezati na vas, ne možete ih zaustaviti; morate sudjelovati u toj ideji otvaranja vaših stranica kako bi mogle biti povezane od bilo koga. I to je ono što radimo.
We're now entering to the third stage, which is what I'm talking about, and that is where we link the data. So, I don't know what the name of this thing is. I'm calling it the one machine. But we're linking data. So we're going from machine to machine, from page to page, and now data to data. So the difference is, is that rather than linking from page to page, we're actually going to link from one idea on a page to another idea, rather than to the other page. So every idea is basically being supported -- or every item, or every noun -- is being supported by the entire Web. It's being resolved at the level of items, or ideas, or words, if you want. So besides physically coming out again into this idea that it's not just virtual, it's actually going out to things. So something will resolve down to the information about a particular person, so every person will have a unique ID. Every person, every item will have a something that will be very specific, and will link to a specific representation of that idea or item. So now, in this new one, when I link to it, I would link to my particular flight, my particular seat. And so, giving an example of this thing, I live in Pacifica, rather than -- right now Pacifica is just sort of a name on the Web somewhere. The Web doesn't know that that is actually a town, and that it's a specific town that I live in, but that's what we're going to be talking about. It's going to link directly to -- it will know, the Web will be able to read itself and know that that actually is a place, and that whenever it sees that word, "Pacifica," it knows that it actually has a place, latitude, longitude, a certain population.
I sad ulazimo u treću fazu, to je ona o kojoj sad pričam, to je kad povezujemo sve podatke. Neznam kako se ta stvar zove. Ja je zovem "jedan stroj". Ali mi povezujemo podatke. I tako idemo od stroja do stroja, od stranice do stranice do stranice, i sada od podatka do podatka. I tako razlika je, da ćemo umjesto povezivanja od stranice do stranice, zapravo povezati jednu ideju na stranici s drugom idejom, na nekoj drugoj stranici. Tako je u osnovi svaka ideja podržana -- svaka stvar, svaki pojam -- su podržani na webu. Sve se rješava na razini pojmova, ideja ili riječi. Osim što fizički pristupamo toj ideji, koja nije samo virtualna, ona zapravo poseže za fizičkim stvarima. Tako će nešto moći doći do informacija o nekoj određenoj osobi i svaka će osoba imati jedinstveni identifikator. Svaka osoba, svaka stvar, će imati nešto što će biti vrlo specifično, i povezivat će na specifičnu reprezentaciju te ideje ili stvari. Tako sada u ovom novom, kad se povežem na njega, povezet ću se na moj određen let, na točno moje sjedalo. I -- sad ću vam dati primjer te stvari -- Živim u Pacifici -- i sada je Pacifica samo ime negdje na webu. Web nezna da je zapravo u pitanju grad, i to točno onaj grad u kojem živim ja, a to je točno to o ćemu ću vam pričati. Povezati će vas direktno na -- web će bit u mogućnosti čitati samog sebe i znati će da je to zapravo mjesto, i gdje god vidi riječ "Pacifica", zna da to mjesto zapravo ima točne koordinate i određenu populaciju.
So here are some of the technical terms, all three-letter things, that you'll see a lot more of. All these things are about enabling this idea of linking to the data. So I'll give you one kind of an example. There's like a billion social sites on the Web. Each time you go into there, you have to tell it again who you are and all your friends are. Why should you be doing that? You should just do that once, and it should know who all your friends are. So that's what you want, is all your friends are identified, and you should just carry these relationships around. All this data about you should just be conveyed, and you should do it once and that's all that should happen. And you should have all the networks of all the relationships between those pieces of data. That's what we're moving into -- where it sort of knows these things down to that level. A semantic Web, Web 3.0, giant global graph -- we're kind of trying out what we want to call this thing. But what's it's doing is sharing data. So you have to be open to having your data shared, which is a much bigger step than just sharing your Web page, or your computer. And all these things that are going to be on this are not just pages, they are things. Everything we've described, every artifact or place, will be a specific representation, will have a specific character that can be linked to directly. So we have this database of things. And so there's actually a fourth thing that we have not get to, that we won't see in the next 10 years, or 5,000 days, but I think that's where we're going to. And as the Internet of things -- where I'm linking directly to the particular things of my seat on the plane -- that that physical thing becomes part of the Web. And so we are in the middle of this thing that's completely linked, down to every object in the little sliver of a connection that it has.
I ovdje su neki tehnički izrazi, sve stvari od tri slova, i od toga ćete vidjeti mnogo više. I sve te stvari koje omogućuju ideju povezivanja podataka. Dati ću vam primjer. Trenutno je hrpa društvenih stranica na webu. I svaki put dok idete na neku novu, morate ispočetka reći tko ste i tko su vaši prijatelji. Zašto bi to trebali raditi ? Trebali bi to napraviti samo jednom i svi bi trebali znati tko su vaši prijatelji. I to je ono što želite, da su svi vaši prijatelji identificirani, i da odnose s njima samo prenositi. Svi ti podaci o vama bi trebali biti prenosivi, i trebali bi ih samo jednom unjeti. I trebali bi imati sve mreže svih odnosa između tih dijelova podataka. To je ono prema ćemu idemo - gdje se znaju te stvari do te razine. Sematički web, Web 3.0, divovski globalni grafikon -- pokušavamo odlučiti kako ćemo zvati tu stvari. Ali ono što će raditi je dijeljenje podataka. Tako na ćete morati biti otvoreni prema dijeljenju svojih informacija, što je mnogo veća stvar nego samo dijeliti web stranicu ili vaše računalo. I sve te stvari će biti na tome ne samo stranice, to su stvari. Sve što smo opisali, svaka stvar ili mjesto, će biti specifična reprezentacija, i imati će specifično značenje na koje će biti direktno povezana. Tako ćemo imati bazu tih stvari. I to je zapravo četvrta stvar kojoj idemo, koju nećemo vidjeti u slijedećih deset godina, ili 5,000 dana, ali ja mislim da idemo prema tome. I kao što Internet stvari -- gdje se direktno povezujem na konkretne stvari mog sjedala u avionu -- koje fizički postaju dijelom Mreže. I tako smo sada usred te stvari koja je potpuno povezana, do zadnjeg objekata protkanog nitima poveznicama.
So, the last thing I want to talk about is this idea that we're going to be codependent. It's always going to be there, and the closer it is, the better. If you allow Google to, it will tell you your search history. And I found out by looking at it that I search most at 11 o'clock in the morning. So I am open, and being transparent to that. And I think total personalization in this new world will require total transparency. That is going to be the price. If you want to have total personalization, you have to be totally transparent. Google. I can't remember my phone number, I'll just ask Google. We're so dependent on this that I have now gotten to the point where I don't even try to remember things -- I'll just Google it. It's easier to do that. And we kind of object at first, saying, "Oh, that's awful." But if we think about the dependency that we have on this other technology, called the alphabet, and writing, we're totally dependent on it, and it's transformed culture. We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing. And so in the same way, we're going to not imagine ourselves without this other machine being there. And what is happening with this is some kind of AI, but it's not the AI in conscious AI, as being an expert, Larry Page told me that that's what they're trying to do, and that's what they're trying to do. But when six billion humans are Googling, who's searching who? It goes both ways. So we are the Web, that's what this thing is. We are going to be the machine. So the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the Web and only better. Just like it wasn't TV and only better. The next 5,000 days, it's not just going to be the Web but only better -- it's going to be something different. And I think it's going to be smarter. It'll have an intelligence in there, that's not, again, conscious. But it'll anticipate what we're doing, in a good sense. Secondly, it's become much more personalized. It will know us, and that's good. And again, the price of that will be transparency. And thirdly, it's going to become more ubiquitous in terms of filling your entire environment, and we will be in the middle of it. And all these devices will be portals into that.
I tako, zadnja stvar o kojoj želim pričati je ta ideja da ćemo svi biti međusobno zavisni. Stalno će biti tamo, i što bliže, to bolje. Ako dopustite Googlu, reći će vam vašu povijest pretraživanja. I ja sam saznao da najviše pretražujem u 11 sati u jutro. Dakle, ja sam otvoren i transparentan. I mislim da će potpuna personalizacija u ovom novom svijetu zahtjevati potpunu transparentnost. To će biti cijena. Ako želite potpunu personalizaciju, morat ćete biti u potpunosti transparentni. Google. Ako se ne mogu sjetiti svojeg telefonskog broja, samo ću pitati Google. Postajemo toliko ovisti o tome da sam došao do točke gdje više ne moram pamtiti stvari -- Samo ih "guglam". To je jednostavnije. I isprva se protivimo tome, govoreći: "To je užasno". Ali ako razmislimo koliko smo ovisni o drugim tehnologijama, koje zovemo abeceda, i pisanje -- u potpunosti ovisimo o njima, i promjenile su kulturu. Ne možemo se zamisliti bez abecede ili pisanja. I na isti način se nećemo moći zamisliti bez tog drugog stroja pokraj nas. I ono što se dešava s tim je neka vrsta umjetne inteligencije, ali ne svjesne -- kao što mi je kao stručnjak Larry Page rekao, da je to ono što pokušavaju napraviti, i to ono što pokušavaju napraviti. Ali kada šest milijardi ljudi "gugla", tko pretražuje koga? To vrijedi obostrano. Dakle mi smo Mreža, to je ono što predstavlja ta stvar. Mi ćemo biti stroj. Dakle slijedećih 5,000 dana -- to neće biti Mreža, ali samo bolja. Isto kao što nije bio samo TV, ali nešto bolji. Slijedećih 5,000 dana -- neće biti samo Mreža, ali malo bolja; biti će nešto sasvim drugačije. I mislim da će biti pametnije. Imat će inteligenciju, naravno ne svjesnu. Ali anticipirat će naše ponašanje, u dobrom smislu. Kao drugo, postat će mnogo više personaliziran. Poznat će nas, i to je dobra stvar. Ali opet, cijena toga biti će transparentnost. Kao treće, postat će sveprisutan i biti svugdje u vašem okruženju, a mi ćemo biti u njegovoj sredini. I svi uređaji će biti portali u njega.
So the single idea that I wanted to leave with you is that we have to begin to think about this as not just "the Web, only better," but a new kind of stage in this development. It looks more global. If you take this whole thing, it is a very big machine, very reliable machine, more reliable than its parts. But we can also think about it as kind of a large organism. So we might respond to it more as if this was a whole system, more as if this wasn't a large organism that we are going to be interacting with. It's a "One." And I don't know what else to call it, than the One. We'll have a better word for it. But there's a unity of some sort that's starting to emerge. And again, I don't want to talk about consciousness, I want to talk about it just as if it was a little bacteria, or a volvox, which is what that organism is.
I tako, jedna ideja koju sam vam želio ostaviti je da moramo početi misliti o tome na način da neće biti "samo web, ali bolji", već sasvim nova razina u ovom razvoju. Izgleda više globalno -- ako pogledate tu stvar, to je jako velik stroj, jako pouzdan stroj, mnogo pouzdaniji nego njegovi dijelovi. Ali ga također možemo zamisliti kao neku vrst velikog organizma. Možda ćemo bolje reagirati na njega kao na cijeli sustav, bolje nego kao na veliki oraganizam s kojim ćemo komunicirati. To je "Jedan". I neznam kako drugačije da ga zovem nego "Jedan". Imati ćemo bolju riječ za njega. Ali dolazi do neke vrste jedinstva. I opet, ne želim pričati o svijesti, želim pričat o tome kao da je bakterija, ili papučica, što taj organizam zapravo i jest.
So, to do, action, take-away. So, here's what I would say: there's only one machine, and the Web is its OS. All screens look into the One. No bits will live outside the Web. To share is to gain. Let the One read it. It's going to be machine-readable. You want to make something that the machine can read. And the One is us. We are in the One. I appreciate your time. (Applause)
Kao sažetak rekao bih ovo: postoji samo jedan stroj i njegov operacijski sustav je Mreža. Svi ekrani gledaju u Jednog. Bitovi neće neće živjeti van Mreže. Dijeljenjem dobivamo. Dajmo Jednome da čita. Sve će biti čitljivo od strane stroja; sve ćemo prilagoditi tako da stroj može čitati. I Jedan smo mi -- mi smo u Jednome. Hvala na vašem vremenu. (Pljesak)