All right. So, like all good stories, this starts a long, long time ago when there was basically nothing. So here is a complete picture of the universe about 14-odd billion years ago. All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy. For some reason it explodes, and you begin to get these things. So you're now about 14 billion years into this. And these things expand and expand and expand into these giant galaxies, and you get trillions of them. And within these galaxies you get these enormous dust clouds. And I want you to pay particular attention to the three little prongs
好吧,就像那些童話故事一樣, 這個故事要從很久很久以前講起, 當時宇宙基本上是一片空白 這張圖片展現的就是 140多億年前的整個宇宙 所有的能量都集中在一個能量點 由於某種原因它爆炸了 宇宙裏開始出現這些東西 它們已經存在了140多億年 而且在不斷地擴大、擴大、擴大 形成了這些巨大的星系 數量達到幾萬億 在這些星系裏 出現大量的塵埃雲 請大家注意看 圖片中心的
in the center of this picture. If you take a close-up of those, they look like this. And what you're looking at is columns of dust where there's so much dust -- by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles -- and what's happening is there's so much dust, it comes together and it fuses and ignites a thermonuclear reaction. And so what you're watching is the birth of stars. These are stars being born out of here. When enough stars come out, they create a galaxy. This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy, because you are here. (Laughter) And as you take a close-up of this galaxy, you find a relatively normal, not particularly interesting star.
這三個小突起 如果給它們來個特寫的話 它們看上去就是這個樣子 大家所看到的是塵埃柱 其中滿是塵埃 順便提一句,它的規模有一萬億英里 這些大量的塵埃 相互聚集,熔合 引發了熱核反應 現在大家所看到的 便是恒星的誕生 恒星就是在這裏產生的 當恒星的數量足夠多時 它們形成了一個星系 而這個星系恰巧是至關重要的 因為我們大家就生活在這裏 (笑聲) 仔細觀察這個星系 我們會發現一個比較平凡 並不引人注目的恒星
By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story. So this star doesn't even appear until about two-thirds of the way into this story. And then what happens is there's enough dust left over that it doesn't ignite into a star, it becomes a planet. And this is about a little over four billion years ago.
順便提一句,這個故事已經講了三分之二了 而這顆恒星 卻直到現在才出現 現在的情況是 由於剩餘的塵埃 不足以引發熱核反應形成恒星 於是它成為了行星 這大約發生在40億年前
And soon thereafter there's enough material left over that you get a primordial soup, and that creates life. And life starts to expand and expand and expand, until it goes kaput.
不久之後 由於擁有足夠的剩餘原料 便有了一鍋「原湯」 生命便從這裏起源 而且不斷地擴大、擴大、再擴大 直到它塵歸塵,土歸土
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Now the really strange thing is life goes kaput, not once, not twice, but five times. So almost all life on Earth is wiped out about five times. And as you're thinking about that, what happens is you get more and more complexity, more and more stuff to build new things with. And we don't appear until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story, just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.
有件事情非常的奇怪 生命滅絕了不止一次、兩次 而是五次 幾乎地球上的所有生命 都被消滅了五次 正如大家所想的一樣 新生命變得越來越複雜 越來越多的材質 包含在裏面 而我們人類 直到這個故事的99.96%才出現 以便我們正確看待自己和我們的祖先
So within that context, there's two theories of the case as to why we're all here. The first theory of the case is that's all she wrote. Under that theory, we are the be-all and end-all of all creation. And the reason for trillions of galaxies, sextillions of planets, is to create something that looks like that and something that looks like that. And that's the purpose of the universe; and then it flat-lines, it doesn't get any better.
在這個背景下有兩種理論 來解釋人類為什麼存在 第一種理論 這都是她寫下來的 按照這種理論 人類是造物主 最重要的創造 所以數萬億的星系 以及數量眾多的行星存在的原因 是為了創造這樣… 和那樣的生命體 這就是宇宙存在的目的 然後它就開始走平穩路線 沒有再進一步提高水準
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
The only question you might want to ask yourself is, could that be just mildly arrogant? And if it is -- and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction. There were only about 2,000 of our species left. A few more weeks without rain, we would have never seen any of these.
大家可能想問自己 這樣的解釋是不是有些妄自尊大呢? 如果是這樣的話 特別是鑒於人類曾經接近滅絕的事實 當時只剩下大約二千人 要是再有幾個星期不下雨 我們就再也見不到這些名人了
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
(Applause)
(掌聲)
So maybe you have to think about a second theory if the first one isn't good enough. Second theory is: Could we upgrade? (Laughter) Well, why would one ask a question like that? Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far of humanoids. So it turns out that we have upgraded. We've upgraded time and again and again. And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades. We found this one last year. We found another one last month.
因此我們也許不得不考慮另一種理論 如果第一種解釋不通的話 第二種理論是:我們能不能「升級」? (笑聲) 怎麼會有人問出這樣的問題呢? 因為目前為止一經發現 人類已至少「升級」了29次 結果表明我們確實「升級」了 人類一次一次地「升級」 而且我們還在不斷地發現新的「升級」的證據 這是去年發現的 我們上個月還發現了一個
And as you're thinking about this, you might also ask the question: So why a single human species? Wouldn't it be really odd if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica and found exactly the same bird -- particularly given that we co-existed at the same time with at least eight other versions of humanoid at the same time on this planet? So the normal state of affairs is not to have just a Homo sapiens; the normal state of affairs is to have various versions of humans walking around.
現在大家都在思考這個理論 可能會產生這個疑問 為什麼僅僅是人類呢? 如果我們在非洲、亞洲、南極洲 發現同一種鳥類 會不會是件很稀奇的事情? 特別是考慮到我們曾經 和至少其他八類人種 在這個星球上共同存在過 智人是唯一存在的人種這種說法 不是自然界的普遍法則 自然界的普遍法則是 各種不同種類的人
And if that is the normal state of affairs, then you might ask yourself, all right, so if we want to create something else, how big does a mutation have to be? Well Svante Paabo has the answer. The difference between humans and Neanderthal is 0.004 percent of gene code. That's how big the difference is one species to another. This explains most contemporary political debates.
如果自然界的法則是這樣 那麼你可能要問自己 如果我們想創造出其他的人種 要產生多大的變異才可以? Svante Paabo 給出了答案 人類和尼安德塔人(遠古的人種) 基因上只有0.004%的差別 一個人種和另一個人種 就是這麼一點差別 這就解釋了現在多數的政治糾紛
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
But as you're thinking about this, one of the interesting things is how small these mutations are and where they take place. Difference human/Neanderthal is sperm and testis, smell and skin. And those are the specific genes that differ from one to the other. So very small changes can have a big impact.
大家仔細想一想 一件非常有意思的事情 這些變異有多麼微妙?又是在哪發生的? 人類和尼安德塔人的不同在於 精子與睪丸 氣味與皮膚 這些特殊的基因 產生了人與人的區別 因此一點小小的變化就能產生很大的影響
And as you're thinking about this, we're continuing to mutate. So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea, we had one mutation in one gene which led to blue eyes. And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.
大家想想 我們一直在變異 在大約一萬年前的黑海 人類的一個基因產生了變異 因此出現了藍色的眼睛 這樣的變異一直持續著、持續著
And as it continues, one of the things that's going to happen this year is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes, because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing. And when we find these, we may find differences.
與此同時 一件大事將在今年發生 我們將發現前一萬個人類基因組 這得益於基因序列研究已經不那麼昂貴了 當我們發現這些基因之後 我們會找到一些不同以往的理論
And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for, because we have really misused the science in this. In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people. That was partly based on Francis Galton's work. He was Darwin's cousin. But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute, Stanford, American Neurological Association took this really far. That got exported and was really misused. In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous treatment of human beings. So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences, we're all identical. We're going to know at year end if that is true.
順便說一句,我們沒有準備好爭論這個問題 因為我們在這個問題上誤用了科學 在1920年代,我們曾認為不同人之間的基因有很大差別 這是部分基於法蘭西斯•高爾頓的研究 他是達爾文的表弟 在美國,卡內基研究所 史丹佛,美國神經病學協會 把這種研究進一步深入 進而傳播到其他地方被錯誤地使用 事實上它對人類平等待遇 造成了非常可怕的後果 所以自1940年代,我們一直在說我們沒有差別 大家都是一樣的 今年年底我們將知道這是不是真的
And as we think about that, we're actually beginning to find things like, do you have an ACE gene? Why would that matter? Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen that doesn't have an ACE gene. And if you want to get more specific, how about a 577R genotype? Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested carries at least one of these variants.
現在大家想想 事實上,我們開始發現一些東西 比如,你有ACE基因嗎? 它有什麼重要的呢? 因為沒有一個不帶氧氣能爬上8000米高的山峰的人 是不攜帶ACE基因的 如果你想瞭解得更具體 來看看577R基因型怎麼樣? 結果表明每個接受檢測的奧運男運動員 都攜帶這種基因型的至少一種變體
If that is true, it leads to some very complicated questions for the London Olympics. Three options: Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase for really hardworking mutants? (Laughter) Option number two: Why don't we play it like golf or sailing? Because you have one and you don't have one, I'll give you a tenth of a second head start. Version number three: Because this is a naturally occurring gene and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents, you get the right to upgrade. Three different options. If these differences are the difference between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.
如果這是真的 那麼就有一些很複雜的問題 留給倫敦奧運會 三個問題 我們希望奧運會成為 刻苦訓練的、擁有突變基因的運動員展示的舞臺嗎? (笑聲) 第二 為什麼我們不像高爾夫球或者帆船運動那樣比賽呢? 因為你有這個基因、而你沒有 我會讓你搶佔十分之一秒的優勢 第三 因為這是自然形成的基因 你有幸的到了這個基因、而你卻投錯了胎 所以你可以晉級 三種不同的選擇 如果這些差別就是 奧運獎牌和非奧運獎牌的差別
And it turns out that as we discover these things, we human beings really like to change how we look, how we act, what our bodies do. And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States, except that with the technologies that are coming online today, today's corrections, deletions, augmentations and enhancements are going to seem like child's play.
就像我們所發現的一樣 人類非常願意改變 自己的容貌、 行為方式 以及身體狀況 在美國有過大約1020萬例整形外科手術 除了那些即將上線的新技術 現如今修復、去除 豐胸、美容 看起來如同兒戲一般
You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED, but this ability to start filling things like inkjet cartridges with cells are allowing us to print skin, organs and a whole series of other body parts. And as these technologies go forward, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things -- 2000, human genome sequence -- and it seems like nothing's happening, until it does. And we may just be in some of these weeks.
我們在TED上看過 Tony Atala 的研究 這種填充東西的技術 就像是裝滿細胞的噴墨水匣一樣 讓我們能隨心所欲的 “列印” 皮膚、器官 以及一系列身體部位 隨著這些技術的進步 我們會不斷看到這個,我們會不斷看到這個,我們會不斷看到新東西 2000年,人類基因組序列 事情就好像是直到該發生的時候 才會發生 我們也許就處在發生重大變革的這幾個星期內
And as you're thinking about these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000 and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000, then you don't hear a lot, until you hear about an experiment last year in China, where they take skin cells from this mouse, put four chemicals on it, turn those skin cells into stem cells, let the stem cells grow and create a full copy of that mouse.
我們知道 這兩位在2000年研究人類基因序列 還有2000年的人類基因序列公開專案 然後就沒有太多這方面的消息了 直到大家聽說在中國的一次實驗 他們從老鼠身上取出皮膚細胞 在上面注入四種化學藥劑 把皮膚細胞轉變成幹細胞 讓這些幹細胞生長 然後完全“複製”了那只老鼠
That's a big deal. Because in essence what it means is you can take a cell, which is a pluripotent stem cell, which is like a skier at the top of a mountain, and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells, four, eight, 16, and then it gets so crowded after 16 divisions that those cells have to differentiate. So they go down one side of the mountain, they go down another. And as they pick that, these become bone, and then they pick another road and these become platelets, and these become macrophages, and these become T cells. But it's really hard, once you ski down, to get back up. Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift. And what those four chemicals do is they take any cell and take it way back up the mountain so it can become any body part.
這是很了不起的 因為從本質上講 這就意味著我們可以拿一個 多能幹細胞 它們就像山頂上的滑雪者 兩個滑雪者就是兩個多功能幹細胞 分裂成四個、八個、十六個 然後就變得越來越擁擠 十六次分裂之後 這些細胞不得不變異 所以他們從山的一面走下來 他們從另一面走下來 當他們選擇了這條路 就變成了骨骼 那些選擇另一條路的變成了血小板 這些變成了巨噬細胞 這些變成了T細胞 可是一旦你滑下去 就很難再回頭了 當然啦,除非你有滑雪纜車 那四種化學藥劑的作用 就是載著細胞 回到山頂上 讓它們具有變成身體任何部分的能力
And as you think of that, what it means is potentially you can rebuild a full copy of any organism out of any one of its cells. That turns out to be a big deal because now you can take, not just mouse cells, but you can human skin cells and turn them into human stem cells. And then what they did in October is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells and began to turn them into liver cells. So in theory, you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.
正如大家所想的 這就意味著 我們很有可能 只用一個細胞 複製任何器官 這是一個重大突破 因為現在不僅是老鼠細胞 我們可以把人類的皮膚細胞 變成幹細胞 就在10月份 他們把皮膚細胞變成了幹細胞 然後開始把它們變成肝臟細胞 所以理論上講 我們的任何一個細胞可以被培養成任何一個器官
Here's a second experiment: If you could photocopy your body, maybe you also want to take your mind. And one of the things you saw at TED about a year and a half ago was this guy. And he gave a wonderful technical talk. He's a professor at MIT. But in essence what he said is you can take retroviruses, which get inside brain cells of mice. You can tag them with proteins that light up when you light them. And you can map the exact pathways when a mouse sees, feels, touches, remembers, loves. And then you can take a fiber optic cable and light up some of the same things. And by the way, as you do this, you can image it in two colors, which means you can download this information as binary code directly into a computer.
這是第二個實驗 如果我們能給身體做個影印件 或許也想給思想做一個 大約一年半之前 大家在TED 見過這個傢伙 他做了很精彩的技術演講 他是MIT的教授 但本質上,他說的是 利用逆轉錄病毒 讓它們進入老鼠的腦細胞 並用蛋白質標記它們 這種蛋白質在被照亮時會發光 當老鼠看到、感覺到、觸摸到東西 回憶、戀愛的時候 我們能夠準確描繪出腦部活動路徑 我們可以用光纖電纜 點亮這些相同的東西 我們在做這件事情的時候 可以把它們製成兩種顏色 這意味著我們可以把這些資訊 像二進位碼一樣下載到電腦上
So what's the bottom line on that? Well it's not completely inconceivable that someday you'll be able to download your own memories, maybe into a new body. And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well. And this might have just one or two small ethical, political, moral implications. (Laughter) Just a thought.
這件事情本質上是什麼呢? 不難想像 也許有一天我們可以把自己的記憶 下載到一個新的軀體裏 或許也可以把別人的記憶載入到自己身上 估計這只會引起一兩個 小小的政治上、道德上的問題 (笑聲) 隨便想想而已
Here's the kind of questions that are becoming interesting questions for philosophers, for governing people, for economists, for scientists. Because these technologies are moving really quickly.
有一些問題 正在逐漸引起 哲學家、管理者 經濟學家、科學家的興趣 因為這些技術傳播的非常快
And as you think about it, let me close with an example of the brain. The first place where you would expect to see enormous evolutionary pressure today, both because of the inputs, which are becoming massive, and because of the plasticity of the organ, is the brain.
大家意猶未盡 讓我舉個關於大腦的例子來結束今天的演講 如果我們最先期待 看到一個器官的顯著進化 不僅因為 在這方面越來越多的研究投入 而且由於其具有可塑性 那麼這個器官就是大腦
Do we have any evidence that that is happening? Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand. Here's what it looks like in 2000. Here's what it looks like in 2002, 2006, 2008. Here's the increase in less than a decade. And we still don't know why this is happening. What we do know is, potentially, the brain is reacting in a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way, and creating individuals that are like this. And this is only one of the conditions that's out there. You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart, people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives, people who've got synesthesia, people who've got schizophrenia. You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there, and we still don't understand how and why this is happening.
有證據證明這種進化正在發生嗎? 讓我們來看看每千人中自閉症發生概率 這是2000年的狀況 這是2002年的狀況 2006,2008 這是不到10年的時間裏所增加的數量 我們直到現在也不知道為什麼是這樣 我們所知道的是, 大腦潛在的以一種 極度活躍的方式在反應 並創造出同樣活躍的個體 這僅僅是其中存在的一種情況 我們還見過非常聰明的人 過目不忘的人 能產生牽連感覺的人 精神分裂的人 我們見過各種各樣的情況 但現在依舊不明白 為什麼這一切發會生,是又如何發生的
But one question you might want to ask is, are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain and of how we process data? Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains, we're trying to take in as much data in a day as people used to take in in a lifetime. And as you're thinking about this, there's four theories as to why this might be going on, plus a whole series of others. I don't have a good answer. There really needs to be more research on this.
大家可能要問 大腦是在高速進化嗎? 我們是怎樣處理資料的? 當涉及到有多少資料進入大腦時 我們現在一天內要接收的資訊 相當於過去人們一輩子所接收到的資訊 現在大家考慮一下這個問題 這裏有四種理論來解釋這種現象 以及一系列其他的理論 我給不出一個漂亮的答案 在這方面確實還需要更多的研究
One option is the fast food fetish. There's beginning to be some evidence that obesity and diet have something to do with gene modifications, which may or may not have an impact on how the brain of an infant works.
一個選擇是速食迷戀 開始有證據表明 肥胖和飲食 與基因改造 有關 但不能確定 它對嬰兒大腦運作的影響
A second option is the sexy geek option. These conditions are highly rare. (Laughter) (Applause) But what's beginning to happen is because these geeks are all getting together, because they are highly qualified for computer programming and it is highly remunerated, as well as other very detail-oriented tasks, that they are concentrating geographically and finding like-minded mates. So this is the assortative mating hypothesis of these genes reinforcing one another in these structures.
第二個選擇是“性感的書呆子” 這種情況確實很少見 (笑聲) (掌聲) 現在的情況是 這些書呆子們聚在一起 他們有很高的電腦編程技能 酬勞很高 還有從事其他注重細節的工作 他們集中到一起 尋找志同道合的人 所以這就是選擇性交配假設 這些基因在體系中 互相增援
The third, is this too much information? We're trying to process so much stuff that some people get synesthetic and just have huge pipes that remember everything. Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information. Other people react with various psychological conditions or reactions to this information. Or maybe it's chemicals.
第三,資訊是不是太多了? 我們的大腦試圖處理太多的資訊 以至於有些人產生了牽連感覺 他們擁有巨大的管道來記住所有事情 有一些人對大量資訊過分敏感 有一些人對資訊做出反應時 伴隨著各種各樣心理上的狀況和反應 也許是化學反應
But when you see an increase of that order of magnitude in a condition, either you're not measuring it right or there's something going on very quickly, and it may be evolution in real time.
如果發現 某種情況的數量大幅度提升 不是測量不準確 就是有什麼事情正在迅速發展 說不定就是在進化
Here's the bottom line. What I think we are doing is we're transitioning as a species. And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together. I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis that, for better or worse, is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment, it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately control the evolution of its own species, of bacteria, of plants, of animals. And I think that's such an order of magnitude change that your grandkids or your great-grandkids may be a species very different from you.
歸根結底 我認為作為一個物種 我們正在轉化 當Steve Gullans和我一起寫作的時候我並不這樣認為 我覺得我們正在向演化人轉化 無論是好是壞 這都不僅僅是一個只對周圍環境有意識的人種 而是一个直接的、有意的 想要控制 自己的种族、細菌、植物、乃至動物进化的人种 我認為,如果我們的孫輩或重孫輩 與我們是完全不同的物種 將是一個翻天覆地的改變
Thank you very much.
謝謝大家
(Applause)
(掌聲)