All right. So, like all good stories, this starts a long, long time ago when there was basically nothing. So here is a complete picture of the universe about 14-odd billion years ago. All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy. For some reason it explodes, and you begin to get these things. So you're now about 14 billion years into this. And these things expand and expand and expand into these giant galaxies, and you get trillions of them. And within these galaxies you get these enormous dust clouds. And I want you to pay particular attention to the three little prongs
和大家熟知的故事一样 很久,很久以前 一切皆是虚无 这就是大约140亿年前 宇宙的全景 所有能量会聚在一点 出于一些原因它发生了爆炸 于是你开始得到了这一切 从那时到今天已经有140亿年了 它们无休止的膨胀,膨胀,膨胀 形成了这些巨型星系 数以亿万计 在这些星系之中 存在着巨大数量的尘埃云 请大家注意观察 在图片中心的
in the center of this picture. If you take a close-up of those, they look like this. And what you're looking at is columns of dust where there's so much dust -- by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles -- and what's happening is there's so much dust, it comes together and it fuses and ignites a thermonuclear reaction. And so what you're watching is the birth of stars. These are stars being born out of here. When enough stars come out, they create a galaxy. This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy, because you are here. (Laughter) And as you take a close-up of this galaxy, you find a relatively normal, not particularly interesting star.
这三个小突起 如果来个特写的话 它们是这样的 你们正在观察的是尘埃柱 其中的尘埃非常密集 顺便说一句,这幅图片的垂直尺度是一兆英里 在其中的巨量尘埃 相互聚集,融合 引发热核反应 你们正在看到的 是恒星的诞生 恒星就在这里形成 当足够的恒星出现时 就形成了星系 这个星系是一个特别重要的星系 因为我们就在这儿 (笑声) 如果你继续在近距离观察这个星系 你会发现一个相对普通的 并不特别有趣的恒星
By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story. So this star doesn't even appear until about two-thirds of the way into this story. And then what happens is there's enough dust left over that it doesn't ignite into a star, it becomes a planet. And this is about a little over four billion years ago.
顺带一提,这个故事已经讲了三分之二了 或者说这颗恒星 直到那时甚至都还没有形成 之后发生的 是那里剩余的尘埃 并不足以引发核聚变形成恒星 于是成为了行星 这大约发生在40亿年前
And soon thereafter there's enough material left over that you get a primordial soup, and that creates life. And life starts to expand and expand and expand, until it goes kaput.
之后不久 那里仍然有足够的材料留了下来 形成“原生汤” 生命从中诞生 生命无休止的扩张,扩张,扩张 直到它完蛋
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Now the really strange thing is life goes kaput, not once, not twice, but five times. So almost all life on Earth is wiped out about five times. And as you're thinking about that, what happens is you get more and more complexity, more and more stuff to build new things with. And we don't appear until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story, just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.
这其中非常奇怪的事 是生命灭绝了不止一次,两次 而是五次 所以几乎现存的所有生物 都经历过五次大灭绝 正如大家所想的那样 新生命包含着 越来越多的质料 越来越具有复杂性 而我们人类 直到故事进行了99.96%才出现 这让我们能够对自己和我们的祖先有一个清晰的认识
So within that context, there's two theories of the case as to why we're all here. The first theory of the case is that's all she wrote. Under that theory, we are the be-all and end-all of all creation. And the reason for trillions of galaxies, sextillions of planets, is to create something that looks like that and something that looks like that. And that's the purpose of the universe; and then it flat-lines, it doesn't get any better.
在这个背景下有两种理论 解释人类为什么存在 第一个理论是 这都是“她”写下来的 按照这种理论 我们是造物主最重要 也是最后的造物 数万亿的星系 无数的行星存在的原因 就是为了创造“这样” 和“这样”的生命 这就是宇宙存在的目的 然后它就停滞不前 没有进一步发展
(Laughter)
(笑声)
The only question you might want to ask yourself is, could that be just mildly arrogant? And if it is -- and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction. There were only about 2,000 of our species left. A few more weeks without rain, we would have never seen any of these.
大家会问自己这样一个问题 这是不是太自大了? 如果是的话 特别是基于人类曾经近乎灭绝的事实 那时只剩下大约2000人 如果再有几个星期不下雨 我们就再也见不到这些人了
(Laughter)
(笑声)
(Applause)
(掌声)
So maybe you have to think about a second theory if the first one isn't good enough. Second theory is: Could we upgrade? (Laughter) Well, why would one ask a question like that? Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far of humanoids. So it turns out that we have upgraded. We've upgraded time and again and again. And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades. We found this one last year. We found another one last month.
因此我们不得不去考虑第二种理论 既然第一种解释不通 第二种理论是:我们能不能“升级”? (笑声) 好吧,怎么会有人问这种问题呢? 因为人类目前至少已经 ”升级“了29次 这表明我们确实”升级“过 我们曾经一次又一次的“升级” 并且现在证明我们还在不断的”升级“ 这是去年发现的 上个月我们又发现了一个
And as you're thinking about this, you might also ask the question: So why a single human species? Wouldn't it be really odd if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica and found exactly the same bird -- particularly given that we co-existed at the same time with at least eight other versions of humanoid at the same time on this planet? So the normal state of affairs is not to have just a Homo sapiens; the normal state of affairs is to have various versions of humans walking around.
既然现在大家都在思考这个理论 就有可能产生一个疑问: 为什么只有一种人类呢? 难道在非洲、亚洲和南极洲 都发现同一种鸟类 不是一件奇怪的事情吗? 尤其是考虑到我们曾经和 其他至少8种人种 在地球上共存过 智人是唯一的人种的说法 并不符合自然界的普遍法则 自然界的普遍法则是 存在着各种各样不同的人种
And if that is the normal state of affairs, then you might ask yourself, all right, so if we want to create something else, how big does a mutation have to be? Well Svante Paabo has the answer. The difference between humans and Neanderthal is 0.004 percent of gene code. That's how big the difference is one species to another. This explains most contemporary political debates.
如果确实是这样 我们又要问自己 好吧,那么如果我们想要产生一个新的人种 究竟需要有多大的变异? Svante Paabo给出了答案 人类和尼安德特人 基因上只有0.004%的差别 这就是两个物种之间 差异的大小 这就解释了现在大多数的政治纠纷
(Laughter)
(笑声)
But as you're thinking about this, one of the interesting things is how small these mutations are and where they take place. Difference human/Neanderthal is sperm and testis, smell and skin. And those are the specific genes that differ from one to the other. So very small changes can have a big impact.
但是大家仔细想想 一件很有意思的事 这些变异究竟是什么?又是在哪里发生的? 人类和尼安德特人的差别在于 精子和睾丸 气味和皮肤 某些特定的基因 产生了物种之间的区别 一点点小小的变化就能引起巨大的影响
And as you're thinking about this, we're continuing to mutate. So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea, we had one mutation in one gene which led to blue eyes. And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.
大家想想看 我们一直在变异 在大约10000年前的黑海地区 我们的一个基因发生了变异 这产生了蓝色的眼睛 这种变异一直持续着、持续至
And as it continues, one of the things that's going to happen this year is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes, because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing. And when we find these, we may find differences.
与此同时 今年将发生的一件大事 是我们将要发现人类最早的10000个基因组 这得益于基因测序已经足够便宜了 当我们获得这些数据 我们就可能产生新的理论
And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for, because we have really misused the science in this. In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people. That was partly based on Francis Galton's work. He was Darwin's cousin. But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute, Stanford, American Neurological Association took this really far. That got exported and was really misused. In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous treatment of human beings. So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences, we're all identical. We're going to know at year end if that is true.
顺便说一句,我们还没有准备好去争论这些问题 因为我们在此曾经误用了科学 在1920年代,我们认为人与人之间的基因差异是巨大的 这部分基于Francis Galton的研究 他是达尔文的表弟 在美国,卡内基研究所 斯坦福大学,美国神经学协会 对此进行了深入的研究 这造成了这种理论的传播和更加严重的误用 事实上它对人类的平等 造成了非常恶劣的影响 自从1940年代,我们就一直在说我们没有差别 我们都是一样的 今年年底我们就将知道这是不是真的
And as we think about that, we're actually beginning to find things like, do you have an ACE gene? Why would that matter? Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen that doesn't have an ACE gene. And if you want to get more specific, how about a 577R genotype? Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested carries at least one of these variants.
现在让我们来想想 我们现在确实开始发现一些东西 比如,你有ACE基因吗? 那又是什么呢? 因为从没有能够不带氧气爬上8000米高的山峰的人 不携带有ACE基因 如果想更具体的了解 来看看577R基因型吧? 每个接受检测的奥林匹克男运动员 都至少含有这种基因型的一个变体
If that is true, it leads to some very complicated questions for the London Olympics. Three options: Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase for really hardworking mutants? (Laughter) Option number two: Why don't we play it like golf or sailing? Because you have one and you don't have one, I'll give you a tenth of a second head start. Version number three: Because this is a naturally occurring gene and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents, you get the right to upgrade. Three different options. If these differences are the difference between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.
如果这是真的 就给伦敦奥运会造成了 一些很复杂的问题 三种不同的选择: 你希望奥运会变成一个 那些刻苦训练的变异人的展示舞台吗? (笑声) 第二: 为什么我们不像高尔夫球或者帆船那样比赛呢? 因为他有这个基因,而你没有 那就给你十分之一秒的先发优势 第三: 因为这是个自然发生的基因 他有幸获得了这个基因,而你不幸投错了胎 所以你有权晋级 三个不同的选择 如果这些差别是 奥运奖牌和非奥运奖牌的差别
And it turns out that as we discover these things, we human beings really like to change how we look, how we act, what our bodies do. And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States, except that with the technologies that are coming online today, today's corrections, deletions, augmentations and enhancements are going to seem like child's play.
就像我们所知道的那样 人类非常愿意改变 我们的容貌、行为方式 以及身体状况 在美国大约进行过1020万例整形外科手术 这还不算即将投入使用的新技术 当今,修复、去除 丰胸和美容 就像儿戏一般
You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED, but this ability to start filling things like inkjet cartridges with cells are allowing us to print skin, organs and a whole series of other body parts. And as these technologies go forward, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things -- 2000, human genome sequence -- and it seems like nothing's happening, until it does. And we may just be in some of these weeks.
我们曾经在TED看过Tony Atala的演讲 这种填充技术 就像是装满细胞的墨盒一样 让我们能够直接打印皮肤,器官 甚至一系列的身体部位 随着技术的发展 我们会不断看到这个,看到那个,不断看到新的东西 2000年,人类基因组计划 事情就好像是在发生那一刻之前 什么也不会发生 我们现在也许就处在重大变革的前夕
And as you're thinking about these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000 and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000, then you don't hear a lot, until you hear about an experiment last year in China, where they take skin cells from this mouse, put four chemicals on it, turn those skin cells into stem cells, let the stem cells grow and create a full copy of that mouse.
如同大家所知道的那样 这两位在2000年进行人类基因组测序 还有2000年的公开项目——人类基因组计划 之后我们就很少听到相关的信息了 直到去年大家听说在中国的一个实验 实验者从老鼠皮肤上取出细胞 加入四种化学试剂 将皮肤细胞转变为干细胞 让干细胞生长 从而创造了那只老鼠的一个完全复制品
That's a big deal. Because in essence what it means is you can take a cell, which is a pluripotent stem cell, which is like a skier at the top of a mountain, and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells, four, eight, 16, and then it gets so crowded after 16 divisions that those cells have to differentiate. So they go down one side of the mountain, they go down another. And as they pick that, these become bone, and then they pick another road and these become platelets, and these become macrophages, and these become T cells. But it's really hard, once you ski down, to get back up. Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift. And what those four chemicals do is they take any cell and take it way back up the mountain so it can become any body part.
这非常了不起 因为从本质上说 这就意味着我们可以取一个 多能干细胞 好比山顶上的滑雪者 两个滑雪者就是两个多能干细胞 分裂成4个,8个,16个 然后变得越来越拥挤 16次分裂之后 这些细胞不得不进行分化 所以一部分从山的这边下来 另一部分从那边下来 那些选择这条路的 就形成了骨骼 而那些选择了另一条路的就变成了血小板 这些变成了巨噬细胞 这些是T细胞 但是一旦你滑下去 想要重新上山就非常困难了 除非,当然了,如果你有滑雪缆车就轻松多了 这就是那四种试剂所起的作用 载着任何细胞 重新回到山顶 这样它们就能重新分化成身体的任何部分
And as you think of that, what it means is potentially you can rebuild a full copy of any organism out of any one of its cells. That turns out to be a big deal because now you can take, not just mouse cells, but you can human skin cells and turn them into human stem cells. And then what they did in October is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells and began to turn them into liver cells. So in theory, you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.
正如大家所想 这意味着它有 重建任何身体组织的潜力 只要通过 任何一个细胞即可 这是一个重大突破 因为现在不仅仅是老鼠细胞 我们也可以取人类皮肤细胞 将它变成人类干细胞 10月份 他们把皮肤细胞变成干细胞 又让干细胞分化成了肝细胞 理论上说 我们可以通过任何一个细胞来培养任何一个器官
Here's a second experiment: If you could photocopy your body, maybe you also want to take your mind. And one of the things you saw at TED about a year and a half ago was this guy. And he gave a wonderful technical talk. He's a professor at MIT. But in essence what he said is you can take retroviruses, which get inside brain cells of mice. You can tag them with proteins that light up when you light them. And you can map the exact pathways when a mouse sees, feels, touches, remembers, loves. And then you can take a fiber optic cable and light up some of the same things. And by the way, as you do this, you can image it in two colors, which means you can download this information as binary code directly into a computer.
这是第二个实验 如果我们能为我们的身体做个复印件 我们就会想也要给思想做一个 大约一年半之前 我们在TED演讲上 见过这位老兄 他带来了很精彩的技术演讲 他是麻省理工大学的教授 本质上,他说的是 我们可以利用反转录病毒 进入小鼠的脑细胞 并且用蛋白质标记它们 这种蛋白会产生荧光 当老鼠看到,感觉,触摸到东西 回忆,恋爱的时候 我们就能够测绘出小鼠脑部的信号路径 这样我们就能用光纤 来模拟成相同的东西 与此同时 我们还可以把他们制成两种颜色 这意味着我们可以把这些信息 像二进制码一样下载到电脑里
So what's the bottom line on that? Well it's not completely inconceivable that someday you'll be able to download your own memories, maybe into a new body. And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well. And this might have just one or two small ethical, political, moral implications. (Laughter) Just a thought.
这一切的结果是什么呢? 这并不难想象 有一天我们可以把自己的记忆 下载到一个新的身体 或许也可以把别人的记忆下载到自己的身上 而这不过会引起一两个 小小的伦理、政治和道德问题而已 (笑声) 随便想想而已
Here's the kind of questions that are becoming interesting questions for philosophers, for governing people, for economists, for scientists. Because these technologies are moving really quickly.
有一些问题 正在逐渐引起 哲学家,政府人员 经济学家,科学家的兴趣 因为这些技术发展的非常之快
And as you think about it, let me close with an example of the brain. The first place where you would expect to see enormous evolutionary pressure today, both because of the inputs, which are becoming massive, and because of the plasticity of the organ, is the brain.
就像大家所知的那样 让我以一个关于大脑的例子来结束今天的演讲 这也是我们认为 承受着巨大的演化压力的部分 不仅仅是由于 当今人类所接受的巨额信息量 还因为大脑本身的可塑性 这就是大脑
Do we have any evidence that that is happening? Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand. Here's what it looks like in 2000. Here's what it looks like in 2002, 2006, 2008. Here's the increase in less than a decade. And we still don't know why this is happening. What we do know is, potentially, the brain is reacting in a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way, and creating individuals that are like this. And this is only one of the conditions that's out there. You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart, people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives, people who've got synesthesia, people who've got schizophrenia. You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there, and we still don't understand how and why this is happening.
那么我们有任何证据表明这种进化确实在发生吗? 让我们来看看每千人中孤独症的发生概率 这是2000年的状况 这是2002年的状况 2006年,2008年 这是在这不到10年间所增加的数量 我们到现在也不知道为什么是这样 我所知道的是 大脑在以一种潜在的 极度活跃的,高度可塑性的方式在反应 并且创造出高度敏感,高度活跃的个体 这仅仅是其中的一种情况 我们都见过非常聪明的人 过目不忘的人 具有交叉感觉的人 还有精神分裂的人 我们见过各种各样的情况 但我们始终不明白 这一切如何,又为什么会发生
But one question you might want to ask is, are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain and of how we process data? Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains, we're trying to take in as much data in a day as people used to take in in a lifetime. And as you're thinking about this, there's four theories as to why this might be going on, plus a whole series of others. I don't have a good answer. There really needs to be more research on this.
大家可能想问一个问题 我们的大脑是否在高速进化? 当考虑到有多少信息进入大脑时 我们会问我们是如何处理信息的? 现代人每天接受的信息 相当于过去人们一辈子所接受到的 现在大家考虑一下 现在有四个理论试图解释这个现象 以及一系列的其他理论 我没法给出一个漂亮的答案 这方面还需要更进一步的研究
One option is the fast food fetish. There's beginning to be some evidence that obesity and diet have something to do with gene modifications, which may or may not have an impact on how the brain of an infant works.
一个可能的答案是对于快餐迷恋 开始有证据表明 肥胖和饮食 与基因修饰(表观遗传学) 有关 目前还不能确定 这是否对婴儿大脑的运作有影响
A second option is the sexy geek option. These conditions are highly rare. (Laughter) (Applause) But what's beginning to happen is because these geeks are all getting together, because they are highly qualified for computer programming and it is highly remunerated, as well as other very detail-oriented tasks, that they are concentrating geographically and finding like-minded mates. So this is the assortative mating hypothesis of these genes reinforcing one another in these structures.
第二种选项是“性感的书呆子” 这真是很罕见 (笑声) (掌声) 现在的情况是 这些书呆子们聚在一起 他们有高超的编程水平 薪酬也很高 还有其他注重细节的工作 这些人集中在一起 都有着类似的思想 这就是选择性交配假说 这些基因在群体中 相互增强
The third, is this too much information? We're trying to process so much stuff that some people get synesthetic and just have huge pipes that remember everything. Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information. Other people react with various psychological conditions or reactions to this information. Or maybe it's chemicals.
第三,信息是不是太多了? 我们的大脑试图处理太多的信息 这就造成了某些人产生了交叉感觉(即通感) 他们具有巨大的神经网络来记住所有事情 一些人对大量信息过度敏感 另一些人对信息作出反应时 伴随着各种心理上的状况 又或许是化学试剂造成的?
But when you see an increase of that order of magnitude in a condition, either you're not measuring it right or there's something going on very quickly, and it may be evolution in real time.
如果发现 某种情况的数量大幅度提高 要么是测量不准确 要么就是确实有什么事情正在迅速发展 这说不定就是实时的进化
Here's the bottom line. What I think we are doing is we're transitioning as a species. And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together. I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis that, for better or worse, is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment, it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately control the evolution of its own species, of bacteria, of plants, of animals. And I think that's such an order of magnitude change that your grandkids or your great-grandkids may be a species very different from you.
归根结底 我认为作为一个物种 我们正在转化 当Steve Gullans和我一起开始写作的时候我想到了这个 我觉得我们正在向“演化人”转化 无论是好是坏 这都不仅仅是一个只对周围环境有意识的人种 而是一个直接的、有意的 想要控制 自己的的种族、细菌、植物乃至其他动物的人种 我认为这是一个如此巨大的变化 以至于我们的孙辈或重孙辈 可能与我们会是完全不同的物种
Thank you very much.
谢谢大家
(Applause)
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