This was the first title I thought of for this talk, "Beethoven as Bill Gates." Does that make sense? Maybe not. OK, so think about that. Being an educator, I am going to tell you the story, and then you'll figure it out for yourselves.
我最先想到的演講標題是 「貝多芬像比爾蓋茨」。 那合理嗎? 也許不。好吧,想想看。 身為教育工作者, 我會告訴你這個故事, 然後你自己判斷。
So the second thought I had was that I would tell the story of the history of music delivery, literally from the beginning, from pounding rocks to pounding rock. The good news about this is the first 10,000 years just sailed by. So for 10,000 years, if you want to make music, you literally pick up rocks, later instruments, those sorts of things. And this goes on for a very long time. Gradually in the West, mostly we start to get a performing class, people who were experts, who were really good at pounding rocks. So, by the 18th century, we're still basically doing this. We have a class of experts, professionals, who play very expensive instruments, for the most part, things like the organ, complicated instruments, and if you wanted to hear music in the 18th century, it was live. You had to go to a concert. You had to go to church, you had to go to a civic event, you had to go hear somebody making music live. So, music always involved social interaction. There were no headphones you could put on, there was no iPhone, there was no record player. If you wanted to hear music, you had to get out of the house. There's really, basically, no music in your house.
我的第二個想法是講述音樂發行史, 按照字面從頭開始, 從擊石奏樂到搖滾樂。 好消息是頭一萬年平順地過去了。 一萬年來,如果你想弄點音樂, 你真的會拿石頭, 和後來拿樂器之類的東西。 這持續了很長的時間。 在西方漸漸開始有了專門表演的人, 主要是那些擅長敲擊石頭的專家。 到 18 世紀基本上仍然如此。 我們有一類專家、專業人員, 他們大都演奏非常昂貴的樂器, 像風琴、複雜的樂器等。 如果你在 18 世紀想聽音樂, 是現場演奏的, 你必須去音樂會。 你必須去教堂,去市民的活動, 必須聽人現場演奏。 因此音樂總是涉及社交活動。 沒有耳機可以戴上, 沒有 iPhone,沒有唱機。 如果你想聽音樂,就必須離開屋子。 基本上家裡沒音樂。
This goes on through the 18th century from the beginning, and then we have ... our first disruption. These two things actually happened together, these two disruptions. We get the piano, right? The piano was a new technology that really starts to happen in the 18th century, and then it becomes something that you could mass-produce cheaply. So you can now have an instrument that's not too expensive, that everyone can have one, that you can have at home. So this allows for a kind of disruption, but it wouldn't have happened if the second disruption hadn't happened at the same time, which is that somebody figured out how to do cheap music printing.
這從一開始一直持續到 18 世紀, 然後我們有了 第一個突破。 這兩個突破實際上是一起發生的。 我們有了鋼琴, 那時鋼琴是一項新的技術, 一開始發生在 18 世紀, 然後變成能以低成本大規模地生產。 因此你能擁有這種不太昂貴的樂器, 每個人都能擁有一個, 可以在家裡用。 所以這導致一種突破, 但如果第二個突破沒有同時發生 就不會發生這種情況, 第二個突破是有人想出 如何便宜地印刷樂譜。
Remember Gutenberg and the other kind of printing? Music is a little more complicated. It took a little longer to figure out: How do I create a cheap way to distribute sheet music? In London, at the time of the American Revolution, there are 12 music shops. By 1800, there are 30. By 1820, there are 150. So the internet wasn't the first time this happened, because think about what happens when, all of a sudden, you go from "If I want to hear music, I've got to go hear Bach, I've got to go hear Mozart." That meant you had to actually go hear Mozart. You didn't buy a CD of Mozart, you didn't download Mozart. You couldn't even buy Mozart sheet music, at least not easily or cheaply. But if you wanted to hear Mozart or Bach, you had to go to Germany and go hear them.
記得古騰堡和另一類型的印刷嗎? (註:首位歐洲活字印刷術發明者) 音樂稍微複雜些, 花了稍微多一點時間才弄清楚 如何用便宜的方法發行樂譜。 在美國革命時期的倫敦 (註:1976 年左右) 有 12 家樂行。 到 1800 年,有 30 家。 到 1820 年,有 150 家。 所以,互聯網不是第一個突破, 因為試想下面的情況: 突然之間,從「如果想聽音樂, 就必須去聽巴哈、莫扎特。」 意思是去聽真正的莫扎特演奏。 沒有莫扎特的 CD 可買或下載, 甚至沒有莫扎特的樂譜能買, 至少不容易也不便宜。 如果你想聽莫扎特或巴哈, 就必須去德國聽他們演奏。
But that's not true for Beethoven. And Beethoven figures out that, in fact, there's a new market. Beethoven is an entrepreneur, not unlike our other friend, Bill Gates. He's an entrepreneur that figures out, "Hey, I don't have to actually go to London. I can actually just sell sheet music. And it can be printed and mass-distributed, and I will be famous everywhere, and everybody else will play my music." So that changes the experience of music for everybody. It changes the variety, it changes the global pyramid, it changes all sorts of things. It creates a new class of musicians, of composers and performers -- there's a division of labor. If you hire Bach to play for your wedding, guess who shows up? Bach!
但貝多芬並非如此。 貝多芬想通了 實際上還有個新的市場。 貝多芬是個企業家, 與我們的另一位朋友 比爾蓋茨沒什麼不同。 他是個企業家,想到: 「嘿,我不必真正去倫敦。 我其實可以賣樂譜。 可以大量印刷和發行樂譜, 我會處處聞名, 其他人會演奏我的音樂。」 那改變了大家的音樂體驗。 它改變了音樂的種類, 改變全球音樂的金字塔, 改變了各式各樣的東西。 它創造了新的音樂家階層, 作曲家和表演者分工了。 如果你雇巴哈為你的婚禮演奏, 猜猜誰會出現呢? 巴哈!
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
That's what he does for a living, right? He has no way to expand his business. But Beethoven does.
他靠這維生,對吧? 他無法擴展業務。 但是貝多芬能。
Then this happens again. It happens 100 years later, so you're starting to see a theme. By the turn of the century, it's an interesting time for music delivery; 100 years later, we get the record player, the gramophone, the player piano. Now you could buy Rachmaninoff sheet music, but if you wanted to hear Rachmaninoff, you had to actually go to the concert hall. Not anymore. Now you can buy a record of Rachmaninoff, or you can buy a player piano and a roll that fits into another kind of recording device. And later, the radio.
然後又突破了, 發生在百年之後, 看得出來主題浮現了, 「世紀之交」是音樂發行的 有趣時刻,對吧? 一百年過去,我們有了 唱機、留聲機、鋼琴演奏家。 原先你買得到拉赫瑪尼諾夫的樂譜, 但如果你想聽拉赫曼尼諾夫演奏, 就必須真的去音樂廳聽他演奏; 不必如此了,現在你買得到 拉赫瑪尼諾夫的唱片, 或者買個自動演奏鋼琴, 和與鋼琴、琴譜相符的打孔紙卷。 後來有了收音機。
So think about this: you're a band in Texas; you're Doc Ross in Texas, and you've got the Texas big band market, you've got it nailed. And all of a sudden, there's this new thing called "radio." And now everybody can hear Count Basie and Duke Ellington and Benny Goodman. Man, the competition just sucks now. All of a sudden, the competition has gone global, just like it does a hundred years later, with the iPod, the internet and digital files and Garage Band, that do all of these things all over again.
試想:你是德州的一支樂隊, 你是德州的歌手多克托·羅斯, 你有德州廣大的樂隊市場, 你掌握了它。 突然間有了「收音機」這個新東西, 每個人都聽得到貝西伯爵、 艾靈頓公爵,和班尼 · 古德曼。 競爭真是糟透了。 突然之間,競爭已走向全球, 就像一百年後的那樣, 有 iPod、互聯網、數位檔案 和 GarageBand, 這事又重來一遍。
So now, maybe we can talk about these two guys. First of all, both of these guys are entrepreneurs. But second of all, both of these guys are software designers. That's what Beethoven does. He writes software that runs on that piece of hardware over there.
也許現在我們可以談談這兩個人。 首先,這兩個人都是企業家。 其次,這兩個人都是軟體設計師。 貝多芬寫軟體。 他寫在那硬體(鋼琴)上跑的軟體。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
That's a piece of hardware. That's a device that you can use if you have my piece of paper. If you have sheet music, does it sound good? No, it's a piece of paper. It's like those floppy disks; they weren't very useful. You can use them as coasters, I guess. But they're not very useful on their own. So both Beethoven and Bill Gates are software designers.
那(鋼琴)是個硬體。 如果你有我的紙(樂譜), 就可以使用那硬體(鋼琴)。 如果你有樂譜,樂譜好聽嗎? 沒聲音,那只是一張紙而已。 就像磁片一樣,不太有用── 我想你可以用來作為杯墊── 樂譜和磁片一樣, 單獨存在時不怎麼有用。 所以貝多芬和比爾蓋茨 都是軟體設計師。
What's interesting is that they also both live at a time where the hardware is changing very quickly. Those of you who are old enough to remember, go back to the '90s, go back to Windows whatever, and remember your joy and your love of Bill Gates, as every time a new software package came out, you had to get a new computer. So, guess what? When Beethoven started writing music, he had this instrument up on top, with five octaves. This one's bigger, it's got more pedals, it's louder, it can do more stuff. When Beethoven starts off, he doesn't have a piano that can do this. He actually just cannot do this. He can't go -- (Musical chords) Can't do that. So in 1803, a French piano maker -- alright, think about how smart this is: If you're a piano maker, into whose hands do you want to get that piano? Composers. Artists who will use the technology and make everybody else have to adopt your technology. It's like sending Bill Gates your fastest, latest computer, because you know he'll use up all the memory.
有趣的是他們都生在 硬體快速變化的時代。 那些年紀夠大的人記得 回到 90 年代, 回到微軟視窗的年代, 記住你對比爾蓋茨的喜愛, 因為每回推出新的視窗軟體, 你就必須升級新電腦。 猜猜看怎麼著? 當貝多芬開始譜曲時, 他的鋼琴有五個八度。 這個更大,有更多的踏板, 聲音更響亮,可以做更多。 最初貝多芬剛開始譜曲時 並沒有這麼多個八度的鋼琴。 實際上他無法、 他不能──(彈和弦) 不能那樣彈和弦。 在 1803 年,一個法國鋼琴製造商── 想想這多麼聰明: 如果你製造鋼琴, 你想把那架鋼琴給誰彈? 作曲家。 給用這技術的藝術家們, 讓其他人不得不採用你的技術。 這就像把你最快、最新的電腦 送給比爾蓋茨一樣, 因為你知道他會用盡 所有的記憶體容量。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
So in 1803, Érard sends Beethoven a new piano. And it has more notes. And it can do that. So the first thing Beethoven does is, he writes a piece that can do that. If you've got a German or a Viennese piano or a British piano, it can't do that. So what do you do? You've gone to the music store. And you've bought the latest Beethoven piano sonata, and you take it home, and you've got a five-octave piano that was the brand-spanking-new, latest technology last year. You start playing that new Beethoven piano sonata, and what happens? Not enough notes! You run out of room. So, in fact, Beethoven has the same relationship with his audience that Bill Gates does. He's a software producer, and he has to deal with the hardware.
所以在 1803 年,耶拉爾 送一架新鋼琴給貝多芬。 它的琴鍵音符更多, 能那樣彈和弦。 拿到鋼琴後,貝多芬先譜寫 能夠那樣彈和弦的曲子。 如果你的鋼琴是德國、維也納 或英國的,就沒轍了。 那你會怎麼做? 你已從樂行 買了最新的貝多芬 鋼琴奏鳴曲的樂譜帶回家, 你家裏已經有五個八度的鋼琴, 那是去年最新技術的嶄新品牌。 你開始彈奏新的貝多芬 鋼琴奏鳴曲,會怎樣? 琴鍵不夠用了! 你超出鍵盤的範圍。 所以事實上, 貝多芬與觀眾的關係 和比爾蓋茨的一樣。 他製造軟體, 必須處理對應的硬體。
And what's interesting about this is that Beethoven was actually smarter than Bill Gates. So when Beethoven gets his new Érard piano, he's writing his third piano concerto, he goes and he gives a concert, and he and uses all those extra notes. But what does he do when he goes and gives the concert? He has to take the piano with him, because it's the only piano he has in Vienna that has those extra notes. So he plays the concerto on the piano. It's great. But he realizes, "Oh, wait. Not everybody has one of these latest things. So he publishes piano sonatas -- He waits; he delays: for the next 10 years, he still publishes piano sonatas that don't use the extra notes. He actually waits, because -- This idea of Beethoven? Everything you know about Beethoven -- basically wrong. Beethoven was a very clever entrepreneur. So the music he wrote for the popular market -- not the pieces he was going to play himself, but the piano sonatas -- he limits himself to the amount of keys that you have at home in some part of Southern Italy, where you have last year's piano.
有趣的是貝多芬實際上比 比爾蓋茨聰明。 當貝多芬得到新的耶拉爾鋼琴時, 他立即寫第三鋼琴協奏曲, 他辦音樂會,用了所有的額外音符。 他去外地舉行音樂會時必須怎樣呢? 他必須自帶鋼琴, 因為它是維也納唯一 有那些額外琴鍵的鋼琴。 他在鋼琴上演奏協奏曲,很棒。 但他意識到,「哦,且慢, 不是每個人都有最新的鋼琴。」 所以當他出版鋼琴奏鳴曲時, 他等待,他延遲, 在接下來的十年裡, 他仍然發行不使用 額外琴鍵的鋼琴奏鳴曲。 實際上他等待,因為 ── 人們對貝多芬的想法, 你對貝多芬的一切所知 基本上是錯誤的。 貝多芬是個非常聰明的企業家, 所以他為流行音樂市場寫的音樂── 不是他自己彈奏的作品, 而是上市的鋼琴奏鳴曲樂譜── 他限制用到的鍵盤數目, 讓你在像是意大利南部居家這些 有去年新型鋼琴的地方也可以彈奏。
So what are the effects of these disruptions in music technology? How do composers, how do people respond? We've had three of these things, and they really all worked the same way. We started off with printing and the piano. The very first thing that happens is: it redefines the product. So the product becomes sheet music, becomes a piece of paper that you can then take home. In the 20th century, it becomes a record, something that you then take home. In the 21st century, it becomes a digital file. The nature of the product changes.
那麼,音樂技術的突破有什麼影響? 作曲家、人們如何回應? 我們已有三件這樣的突破, 他們作用的方式類似。 我們從印刷和鋼琴開始。 發生的第一件事是重新定義產品。 產品變成了樂譜, 變成紙張,你可以帶回家。 到了 20 世紀,它成為唱片, 你能帶回家。 在 21 世紀,它變成了數位檔案。 產品的性質變了。
Second, there's a division of labor. If you want to listen to Bach, you've got to go listen to Bach; there's no other way to do this. In the 19th century, we've got performers, and we've got composers, people who do different things. We have listeners who can now manipulate music like you just saw. It changes expectations of quality. Once everybody's heard Count Basie and Benny Goodman, maybe you're not quite so happy with your local band as much anymore. You've now heard ... -- "I want to go listen to Benny Goodman some more." You have now a global market. You can hear things that you didn't use to hear. Every time this happens, we take away some social interaction. With Beethoven, you can now play Beethoven at home. You can't play Mozart at home. But with Beethoven, you can buy the sheet music, you can go home, you can close the door and play the piano. And only you are there. Now you have headphones that do the same thing.
其次是分工。 如果你想聽巴哈 就必須去聽現場的巴哈; 沒有其他辦法。 在 19 世紀,我們有表演者和作曲家, 做不同事情的人。 現在有能夠操縱音樂的聽眾, 改變了對質量的期望。 一旦所有人都聽得到 貝西伯爵、班尼 · 古德曼, 或許對當地的樂隊 就不再那麼滿意了。 你會聽到「我想再聽一遍 班尼 · 古德曼」這樣的話。 現在有了全球的市場, 你會聽到以前沒聽過的。 每次發生這種情況時, 社交互動就又少了些。 有貝多芬的樂譜, 你可以在家彈奏貝多芬的曲子, 你不能在家彈奏莫扎特。 你可以買貝多芬的樂譜, 回家,關上門,彈鋼琴。 只有你在那裡。 現在有了耳機,可做同樣的事。
With each of these disruptions, it changes the amount of social interaction. It's a new personalized experience each time. I can play Beethoven the way I want to. I can play it faster, I can play it slower. I can actually personalize the experience now. There's more consumer choice, the marketplace gets bigger. The number of titles on sale in those music stores goes up. But there's also less choice, because in a global pyramid, you can't always tell what you want. There's so much choice out there. How do you pick? And so marketing starts to come in, and "Who is the flavor of the month?"
隨著每一次突破, 會改變社交互動的數量。 每次都是新的個性化體驗。 我能按照我想要的方式演奏貝多芬。 我可以快彈、可以慢彈, 現在真的可以個人化我的體驗。 消費者的選擇更多,市場變得更大。 樂行銷售的唱片數量增加。 但有些選擇變少了, 因為在全球金字塔中, 你不總能知道自己想要什麼。 有那麼多選擇,你如何選? 所以開始有了營銷, 「這個月是哪個口味?」
There's one more thing that's not on the list: piracy. One of Haydn and Chopin's biggest worries is that people were going to write fake Chopin and put "Chopin" on it. Do you think Chopin would have been comforted by the thought, "Hey, 20 percent of the people who buy fake Chopin are more likely to go buy real Chopin"? I mean -- I don't know.
還有不在名單上的一件事: 盜版。 海頓和蕭邦最擔憂之一 是人們仿冒蕭邦譜曲, 並且放上「蕭邦」兩字。 你認為蕭邦對這想法會感到寬慰嗎: 「嘿,20% 買仿冒蕭邦曲子的人 更可能去購買真正的蕭邦曲子」? 會這樣嗎?
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
But Chopin, another clever entrepreneur -- you know what he does? He publishes his music in Italy, France, Germany and England on the same day, because there's no international copyright, so he's got to have everything published on the same day. And he puts differences in every country. So if you're playing Chopin, the additions from different countries are different on purpose, because he wanted to be able to track who was a pirate. So, this wasn't something that Sony thought of. So, the question is ... This new technology, it makes more choice for more people, it makes it more global, but it also allows more piracy. It also allows for people to have a marketing filter. They have some way to interact that's not always direct. So the next time somebody says, you know, "Nothing like the internet ever happened." Well, it's true, but these kinds of disruptions in music technology have happened before.
你可知道另一位 聰明的企業家蕭邦怎麼做? 他在意大利、法國、德國 和英國同一天出版樂曲, 因為當時沒有國際版權, 他必須在同一天發布所有內容, 而且各個國家發行的版本都不一樣。 所以如果你彈奏蕭邦, 不同國家的版本 被故意弄成有所不同, 因為他想找出誰盜版。 所以,防盜版不是索尼先想到的。 問題是...... 新技術 提供更多人更多選擇,更加全球化, 但也導致更多的盜版, 也讓人有了營銷的過濾器。 他們總有些不直接的互動。 所以,下一次有人說: 「互聯網之類的東西乃前所未有。」 嗯,的確如此, 但是這種音樂技術的突破 過去已經發生過,
And the model for these disruptions is the same as we see in other kinds of businesses. It changes the nature of the product. So if you're in book publishing, you thought you were in book publishing because of these things called books. Well, you can still sell novels without books. You can still be in the music business even though you're not in the record business. You were selling records only because that was the technology that you inherited. Newspaper business: dead. But journalism isn't dead.
這些突破的模式 與我們看到的其他商業模式相同, 改變了產品的性質。 所以如果你出版圖書, 你以為你出版圖書 因為這些東西叫做書, 但你在沒有書本的情況下 仍然可以賣小說。 即使你不在唱片行業 你仍然可以從事音樂行業。 你賣唱片 只因為那是你繼承的技術。 雖然報業死了, 但新聞業沒死。
And finally, schools. School is the next big horizon, because what were we in the business of? Schools used to be like buying gas or buying food; they had to have local entry points all over the place. But now, with the internet, we have a different distribution system. And so schools have got to think about what we're selling. But I think that the face-to-face interaction is not going to go away. There's still something of value here, as we've demonstrated today, because we're at this thing called TED, where we still want to get to know each other.
最後是學校。 學校是下一個大視野, 因為我們在從事什麼行業呢? 以前學校就像買汽油或買食物一樣, 必須在當地有銷售點。 但現在通過互聯網, 我們擁有不同的分銷系統。 學校還必須考慮賣什麼。 但我認為面對面的互動不會消失, 仍有些有價值, 正如我們今天所展示的, 因為我們在 TED 這裡, 我們仍想認識彼此。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)