This was the first title I thought of for this talk, "Beethoven as Bill Gates." Does that make sense? Maybe not. OK, so think about that. Being an educator, I am going to tell you the story, and then you'll figure it out for yourselves.
这是我我为这个演讲 想到的第一个标题。 “贝多芬像比尔盖茨一样。” 你们能够理解这句话吗? 也许不能。但可以再细想一下。 作为一名教育工作者, 我会给你们讲一个故事, 然后你自己便可以理解。
So the second thought I had was that I would tell the story of the history of music delivery, literally from the beginning, from pounding rocks to pounding rock. The good news about this is the first 10,000 years just sailed by. So for 10,000 years, if you want to make music, you literally pick up rocks, later instruments, those sorts of things. And this goes on for a very long time. Gradually in the West, mostly we start to get a performing class, people who were experts, who were really good at pounding rocks. So, by the 18th century, we're still basically doing this. We have a class of experts, professionals, who play very expensive instruments, for the most part, things like the organ, complicated instruments, and if you wanted to hear music in the 18th century, it was live. You had to go to a concert. You had to go to church, you had to go to a civic event, you had to go hear somebody making music live. So, music always involved social interaction. There were no headphones you could put on, there was no iPhone, there was no record player. If you wanted to hear music, you had to get out of the house. There's really, basically, no music in your house.
因此我的第二个想法是 讲有关音乐呈现的历史, 从头开始 从击打岩石到摇滚乐。 好消息是 这仅仅只花了一万年。 因此,在这头一万年里, 如果你想制作音乐, 你可以拾起石块敲打,而后, 使用乐器。 这持续了很长时间。 在西方,渐渐地开始有 专门从事表演的一群人, 他们是把玩乐器的专家。 所以,到了18世纪, 我们基本上仍在这样做。 我们有这么一群专家,职业人士, 大部分情况下, 他们演奏非常昂贵的乐器, 比如说像管风琴那样复杂的乐器, 如果你想在18世纪听音乐, 它是现场演奏的。 你必须去音乐会上听。 你必须去教堂, 或去参加一个公民活动, 你必须去听别人现场演奏音乐。 因此,音乐总是与社交相联系。 没有耳机可以戴上, 没有iPhone, 没有电唱机。 如果你想听音乐, 你必须离开家里。 基本上,你家里没有音乐。
This goes on through the 18th century from the beginning, and then we have ... our first disruption. These two things actually happened together, these two disruptions. We get the piano, right? The piano was a new technology that really starts to happen in the 18th century, and then it becomes something that you could mass-produce cheaply. So you can now have an instrument that's not too expensive, that everyone can have one, that you can have at home. So this allows for a kind of disruption, but it wouldn't have happened if the second disruption hadn't happened at the same time, which is that somebody figured out how to do cheap music printing.
这一直持续到18世纪初, 直到我们有了 第一次的突破性创新。 两个突破实际上是一起发生。 我们都知道钢琴吧? 钢琴事实上是起源于18世纪的新技术 然后它变为了可以低价批量生产的乐器。 所以你可拥有一个不太昂贵的乐器, 每个人都可以拥有一架钢琴, 你甚至可以在家里买一架。 所以这导致了一种突破, 但这一切不会发生 如果第二个突破性创新 没有同时发生的话, 那就是有人发明了 如何便宜地印刷乐谱。
Remember Gutenberg and the other kind of printing? Music is a little more complicated. It took a little longer to figure out: How do I create a cheap way to distribute sheet music? In London, at the time of the American Revolution, there are 12 music shops. By 1800, there are 30. By 1820, there are 150. So the internet wasn't the first time this happened, because think about what happens when, all of a sudden, you go from "If I want to hear music, I've got to go hear Bach, I've got to go hear Mozart." That meant you had to actually go hear Mozart. You didn't buy a CD of Mozart, you didn't download Mozart. You couldn't even buy Mozart sheet music, at least not easily or cheaply. But if you wanted to hear Mozart or Bach, you had to go to Germany and go hear them.
记得古腾堡印刷术吗? 乐谱印刷略为复杂。 人们花了稍长一点时间才弄清楚: 如何用便宜的方式发行乐谱? 在美国革命时期, 伦敦一共有12家音乐商店。 在1800年有30家。 到1820年有150家。 所以这种现象不是 在互联网时期首次发生, 这是因为,想象一下这些情景的时候 我们都发生了哪些变化 你从“如果我想听音乐, 我必须去听巴赫, 我必须去听莫扎特。“ 这意味着你要去听现场的莫扎特。 你没法买莫扎特的CD, 你也没法下载莫扎特的音乐 而购买莫扎特的乐谱, 既不方便也非常昂贵。 如果你想听莫扎特或巴赫, 你必须去德国去听他们演奏。
But that's not true for Beethoven. And Beethoven figures out that, in fact, there's a new market. Beethoven is an entrepreneur, not unlike our other friend, Bill Gates. He's an entrepreneur that figures out, "Hey, I don't have to actually go to London. I can actually just sell sheet music. And it can be printed and mass-distributed, and I will be famous everywhere, and everybody else will play my music." So that changes the experience of music for everybody. It changes the variety, it changes the global pyramid, it changes all sorts of things. It creates a new class of musicians, of composers and performers -- there's a division of labor. If you hire Bach to play for your wedding, guess who shows up? Bach!
但贝多芬并不是这样。 贝多芬发现实际上有一个新的市场。 贝多芬是一位企业家, 与我们的另一位朋友比尔盖茨一样。 他是一位企业家, 他弄清楚了下面这句话的含义 “嘿,我不需要真的去伦敦。 我其实可以卖乐谱。 它可以被大量印刷以及发行, 我会因此在全世界出名, 所有人都会演奏我的音乐。“ 这改变了所有人的音乐经历 它改变了音乐多样性, 也改变了全球的音乐金字塔, 它改变了一切。 它创造了一群新的音乐家, 作曲家和表演者 —— 这里存在一种劳动分工。 如果你聘请巴赫为你的婚礼进行伴奏, 猜猜谁出现了? 巴赫!
(Laughter)
(笑声)
That's what he does for a living, right? He has no way to expand his business. But Beethoven does.
这就是他的谋生手段,对吧? 他无法扩展业务。 但是贝多芬可以。
Then this happens again. It happens 100 years later, so you're starting to see a theme. By the turn of the century, it's an interesting time for music delivery; 100 years later, we get the record player, the gramophone, the player piano. Now you could buy Rachmaninoff sheet music, but if you wanted to hear Rachmaninoff, you had to actually go to the concert hall. Not anymore. Now you can buy a record of Rachmaninoff, or you can buy a player piano and a roll that fits into another kind of recording device. And later, the radio.
然后这又发生了。 它发生在100年之后, 你开始看到这种主旋律。 到世纪之交, 这是一个音乐呈现的有趣时刻; 100年之后,我们有了电唱机, 留声机,和自动演奏钢琴。 现在你可以买拉赫玛尼诺夫的乐谱, 但如果你想听拉赫玛尼诺夫, 你必须亲自去音乐厅。 现在你可以买一张拉赫玛尼诺夫的唱片, 或者你可以买一架自动演奏钢琴 和一卷能被放进录音设备的磁带。 后来,收音机也出现了。
So think about this: you're a band in Texas; you're Doc Ross in Texas, and you've got the Texas big band market, you've got it nailed. And all of a sudden, there's this new thing called "radio." And now everybody can hear Count Basie and Duke Ellington and Benny Goodman. Man, the competition just sucks now. All of a sudden, the competition has gone global, just like it does a hundred years later, with the iPod, the internet and digital files and Garage Band, that do all of these things all over again.
所以想想下面这个场景: 你是德克萨斯州的一支乐队; 你是得克萨斯州的Doc Ross, 你已经夺下很大的德克萨斯州乐队市场 突然出现了个叫做“收音机”的新玩意。 现在每个人都可以听到Count Basie, Duke Ellington和Benny Goodman。 音乐市场的竞争简直糟透了。 突然之间,这种竞争已走向全球范围, 就像一百年后那样, 通过iPod,互联网 和Garage Band的数码文件, 通过这种方式, 我们再一次掀起了音乐界的全球性竞争。
So now, maybe we can talk about these two guys. First of all, both of these guys are entrepreneurs. But second of all, both of these guys are software designers. That's what Beethoven does. He writes software that runs on that piece of hardware over there.
所以现在, 也许我们可以谈谈关于这两个人的事。 首先,这两个人都是企业家。 其次,这两个人都是软件设计师。 这就是贝多芬所做的。 他编写可以在那架硬件上运行的软件。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
That's a piece of hardware. That's a device that you can use if you have my piece of paper. If you have sheet music, does it sound good? No, it's a piece of paper. It's like those floppy disks; they weren't very useful. You can use them as coasters, I guess. But they're not very useful on their own. So both Beethoven and Bill Gates are software designers.
钢琴当然可以被看作一种硬件。 如果你有我的一张纸, 你就可以使用这个设备。 如果你仅有乐谱的话, 会有好音乐吗? 不,它就是一张纸。 就像那些软盘一样; 它们不是很有用。 你可以将它们作为杯垫。 但他们自身并不是很有用。 所以贝多芬和比尔·盖茨 都是软件设计师。
What's interesting is that they also both live at a time where the hardware is changing very quickly. Those of you who are old enough to remember, go back to the '90s, go back to Windows whatever, and remember your joy and your love of Bill Gates, as every time a new software package came out, you had to get a new computer. So, guess what? When Beethoven started writing music, he had this instrument up on top, with five octaves. This one's bigger, it's got more pedals, it's louder, it can do more stuff. When Beethoven starts off, he doesn't have a piano that can do this. He actually just cannot do this. He can't go -- (Musical chords) Can't do that. So in 1803, a French piano maker -- alright, think about how smart this is: If you're a piano maker, into whose hands do you want to get that piano? Composers. Artists who will use the technology and make everybody else have to adopt your technology. It's like sending Bill Gates your fastest, latest computer, because you know he'll use up all the memory.
有趣的是,他们都生活在 硬件迅速更新的时代 你们当中年纪大到足以 记住这些变化的人, 回到90年代去吧 回到Windows的时代, 记住比尔·盖茨给你们带来的 喜悦和你们对他的爱, 因为每次新的软件包一出来, 你必须升级新电脑。 那么,猜猜看 当贝多芬开始写音乐时, 他把这台仪器放在最上面, 它有五个八度。 这个更大,它有更多的踏板, 它更大声,而且可以做更多的事情。 当贝多芬开始谱曲时, 他并没有这样的钢琴。 他实际上不能做到这一点。 他不能弹出 (和弦) 不能这样做。 在1803年,一个法国钢琴制造商 好吧,想想这是多么的聪明: 如果你是钢琴制造商, 你想要那架钢琴落入谁的手中? 作曲家。 能够使用该技术的艺术家们 他们能让其他人不得不采用你的技术。 这就像送给比尔·盖茨 你最快,最新的电脑, 因为你知道他会用尽 电脑所有的内存。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
So in 1803, Érard sends Beethoven a new piano. And it has more notes. And it can do that. So the first thing Beethoven does is, he writes a piece that can do that. If you've got a German or a Viennese piano or a British piano, it can't do that. So what do you do? You've gone to the music store. And you've bought the latest Beethoven piano sonata, and you take it home, and you've got a five-octave piano that was the brand-spanking-new, latest technology last year. You start playing that new Beethoven piano sonata, and what happens? Not enough notes! You run out of room. So, in fact, Beethoven has the same relationship with his audience that Bill Gates does. He's a software producer, and he has to deal with the hardware.
所以在1803年,埃拉德送给 贝多芬一架新钢琴。 它有更多的音键。 它可以做到这一点。 所以贝多芬首先要做的是, 他谱出了有更美妙和弦的作品。 如果你有德国或维也纳的钢琴 或一架英国钢琴, 它们都做不到。 那你会怎么做? 你已经去了音乐商店。 你已经买了最新的 贝多芬钢琴奏鸣曲, 你把它带回家, 并且你有一个五音阶钢琴 一台采用了去年最新技术的崭新钢琴。 你开始弹奏新的贝多芬的 钢琴奏鸣曲,接下来会发生什么呢? 没有足够的音键! 音域不够。 所以事实上,贝多芬已经 与他的听众有着一种特殊的关系, 这种关系与比尔·盖茨和 他的顾客的关系是一样的。 他是一位软件制作人, 而且同时他必须处理硬件。
And what's interesting about this is that Beethoven was actually smarter than Bill Gates. So when Beethoven gets his new Érard piano, he's writing his third piano concerto, he goes and he gives a concert, and he and uses all those extra notes. But what does he do when he goes and gives the concert? He has to take the piano with him, because it's the only piano he has in Vienna that has those extra notes. So he plays the concerto on the piano. It's great. But he realizes, "Oh, wait. Not everybody has one of these latest things. So he publishes piano sonatas -- He waits; he delays: for the next 10 years, he still publishes piano sonatas that don't use the extra notes. He actually waits, because -- This idea of Beethoven? Everything you know about Beethoven -- basically wrong. Beethoven was a very clever entrepreneur. So the music he wrote for the popular market -- not the pieces he was going to play himself, but the piano sonatas -- he limits himself to the amount of keys that you have at home in some part of Southern Italy, where you have last year's piano.
有趣的是这个 贝多芬事实上比比尔·盖茨聪明。 当贝多芬得到他的新钢琴时, 他正在写他的第三钢琴协奏曲, 他举行了一场音乐会,并在音乐会上 使用了所有这些额外的音键。 但是他在音乐会上做了什么? 他必须带着钢琴, 因为这是他在维也纳唯一 有这些额外琴键的钢琴。 所以他在这台钢琴上演奏了协奏曲。 这很棒。 但他意识到,“哦,等等,不是每个人 有这种最新的钢琴。“ 所以到他出版钢琴奏鸣曲的时候, 他等待,他推迟了出版 使用新钢琴谱的曲子: 在接下来的10年里,他依然出版 不使用这些额外音键的钢琴奏鸣曲 实际上他等待是因为 - 这个贝多芬的想法? 你所知道的关于贝多芬的一切, 基本上是错误的。 贝多芬是一位非常聪明的企业家。 所以他为流行市场所写的音乐 而不是他自己将要演奏的作品 比如说刚才提到的钢琴奏鸣曲, 他限制自己使用的音键数量 他所使用的音键数量符合你家里 在意大利南部等地出产的钢琴。
So what are the effects of these disruptions in music technology? How do composers, how do people respond? We've had three of these things, and they really all worked the same way. We started off with printing and the piano. The very first thing that happens is: it redefines the product. So the product becomes sheet music, becomes a piece of paper that you can then take home. In the 20th century, it becomes a record, something that you then take home. In the 21st century, it becomes a digital file. The nature of the product changes.
那么这些音乐技术上的突破性创新 带来的影响是什么? 作曲家应该如何作出回应? 我们有三件这样的事情, 而且他们的影响几乎一样。 我们从印刷与钢琴开始。 发生的第一件事是: 它重新定义了产品。 所以产品变成了乐谱, 变成一张纸, 你可以将它带回家。 在20世纪,它成为一卷录音带, 然后你可以将它带回家。 在21世纪, 它变成了一个数字文件。 这是产品性质的变化。
Second, there's a division of labor. If you want to listen to Bach, you've got to go listen to Bach; there's no other way to do this. In the 19th century, we've got performers, and we've got composers, people who do different things. We have listeners who can now manipulate music like you just saw. It changes expectations of quality. Once everybody's heard Count Basie and Benny Goodman, maybe you're not quite so happy with your local band as much anymore. You've now heard ... -- "I want to go listen to Benny Goodman some more." You have now a global market. You can hear things that you didn't use to hear. Every time this happens, we take away some social interaction. With Beethoven, you can now play Beethoven at home. You can't play Mozart at home. But with Beethoven, you can buy the sheet music, you can go home, you can close the door and play the piano. And only you are there. Now you have headphones that do the same thing.
其次,这里存在一种劳动分工现象。 如果你想听巴赫的音乐, 你必须去巴赫的演唱会; 没有其他办法可以做到这一点。 在19世纪,我们有表演者, 我们有作曲家, 人们在做不同的事情。 如今,我们有听众 能够改变音乐,就如你们之前听到的。 它改变了我们对质量的期望。 一旦听到大家都听过 Count Basie和Benny Goodman, 也许当地乐队的表演 就不再满足你了。 “我想再听一遍Benny Goodman。“ 你们现在有一个全球市场。 你可以听到过去没有听过的东西。 每次发生这种情况时, 我们都会减少一些社交互动。 至于贝多芬,你现在可以 在家听贝多芬的音乐。 你不能在家听莫扎特。 但至于贝多芬,你可以买 乐谱,你可以回家, 关上门弹钢琴。 只有你在那里。 现在你的耳机做着同样的事情。
With each of these disruptions, it changes the amount of social interaction. It's a new personalized experience each time. I can play Beethoven the way I want to. I can play it faster, I can play it slower. I can actually personalize the experience now. There's more consumer choice, the marketplace gets bigger. The number of titles on sale in those music stores goes up. But there's also less choice, because in a global pyramid, you can't always tell what you want. There's so much choice out there. How do you pick? And so marketing starts to come in, and "Who is the flavor of the month?"
随着每一次音乐技术的突破性创新, 它会改变社交互动的程度。 每次都是一种新的个性化体验。 我可以按照我想要的方式演奏贝多芬。 我可以很快地演奏它, 我也可以慢慢演奏。 我实际上可以个性化我的音乐演奏。 当有更多的消费者选择时, 市场将变得更大。 音乐商店出售的乐谱数量也变多了。 但也有些种类的选择更少了, 因为在全球金字塔中, 你不总知道你想要什么。 那里有很多选择。 你要如何选择? 所以营销开始进入市场, 诸如“谁是本月最受欢迎的音乐家?” 之类的问题出现
There's one more thing that's not on the list: piracy. One of Haydn and Chopin's biggest worries is that people were going to write fake Chopin and put "Chopin" on it. Do you think Chopin would have been comforted by the thought, "Hey, 20 percent of the people who buy fake Chopin are more likely to go buy real Chopin"? I mean -- I don't know.
还有一件事 不在这个名单上: 盗版。 这是海顿和肖邦最大的担忧之一是 是人们在自己写的乐谱上 印上肖邦的名字。 你认为肖邦不会因此感到难受吗, 他不可能会想,“嘿,百分之二十 买假肖邦音乐的人 更可能去购买真正的肖邦。” 其实我也不知道。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
But Chopin, another clever entrepreneur -- you know what he does? He publishes his music in Italy, France, Germany and England on the same day, because there's no international copyright, so he's got to have everything published on the same day. And he puts differences in every country. So if you're playing Chopin, the additions from different countries are different on purpose, because he wanted to be able to track who was a pirate. So, this wasn't something that Sony thought of. So, the question is ... This new technology, it makes more choice for more people, it makes it more global, but it also allows more piracy. It also allows for people to have a marketing filter. They have some way to interact that's not always direct. So the next time somebody says, you know, "Nothing like the internet ever happened." Well, it's true, but these kinds of disruptions in music technology have happened before.
但肖邦,另一位聪明的企业家, 你知道他做了什么吗? 他在意大利,法国,德国和英国 出版自己音乐 在同一天, 因为没有国际版权这种东西, 所以他必须在同一天发表所有东西。 他在不同国家出版的作品各不相同。 所以如果你在弹肖邦, 这些因为出版国家不同 而有的不同的乐谱都是故意造成的, 因为他想知道谁是盗版商。 所以,这个主意不是索尼想到的。 所以,问题是...... 这项新技术, 它为更多的人提供了更多的选择, 它促进了全球化, 但它也允许更多的盗版。 它也允许人们 有一个营销过滤器。 他们有一些互动的方式 这并不总是直接的 所以下一次有人说,你知道, “没有任何像互联网的东西出现过。” 话虽不假,但是这些 音乐技术的突破性创新 已经发生过。
And the model for these disruptions is the same as we see in other kinds of businesses. It changes the nature of the product. So if you're in book publishing, you thought you were in book publishing because of these things called books. Well, you can still sell novels without books. You can still be in the music business even though you're not in the record business. You were selling records only because that was the technology that you inherited. Newspaper business: dead. But journalism isn't dead.
这些技术革新的模型和之前在 其他类型的商业活动里看到的一样 它改变了产品的性质。 所以如果你在图书出版领域, 你以为你在出版书籍 因为这些东西叫书。 那么,你仍然可以出售不是书的小说。 你仍然可以在音乐领域 即使你不是在做唱片业务 您正在销售唱片 只因为那是你接手的技术 报业已经死了。 但新闻业并未死亡。
And finally, schools. School is the next big horizon, because what were we in the business of? Schools used to be like buying gas or buying food; they had to have local entry points all over the place. But now, with the internet, we have a different distribution system. And so schools have got to think about what we're selling. But I think that the face-to-face interaction is not going to go away. There's still something of value here, as we've demonstrated today, because we're at this thing called TED, where we still want to get to know each other.
最后,学校。 学校是下一个大的领域, 这是因为我们的生意正在往这方面发展 学校过去像购买天然气或购买食物; 他们必须由本地进入。 但现在,通过互联网,我们拥有了 一个不同的分配系统 所以学校必须考虑 关于我们卖的东西。 但我认为面对面的互动不会消失。 还有一些有价值的东西, 正如我们今天所展示的, 因为我们在TED这里, 我们仍然想要认识彼此。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
(Applause)
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