Tonight, I want to have a conversation about this incredible global issue that's at the intersection of land use, food and environment, something we can all relate to, and what I've been calling the other inconvenient truth.
Večeras želim da razgovaramo o neverovatnom svetskom problemu gde se prožimaju upotreba zemljišta, hrana i okruženje, nešto, što se tiče svih nas i što sam ja nazvao drugom neprijatnom istinom.
But first, I want to take you on a little journey. Let's first visit our planet, but at night, and from space. This is what our planet looks like from outer space at nighttime, if you were to take a satellite and travel around the planet. And the thing you would notice first, of course, is how dominant the human presence on our planet is. We see cities, we see oil fields, you can even make out fishing fleets in the sea, that we are dominating much of our planet, and mostly through the use of energy that we see here at night. But let's go back and drop it a little deeper and look during the daytime. What we see during the day is our landscapes.
Prvo, želim da vas povedem na jedno kratko putovanje. Hajde da posetimo našu planetu, ali noću i iz svemira. Ovako izgleda naša planeta iz svemira noću, kada biste satelitom putovali oko nje. Ono što biste, naravno, prvo zapazili, to je, koliko je dominantno prisustvo ljudi na našoj planeti. Vidimo gradove, naftna polja, možemo čak da razaznamo ribarske flote na moru, mnogo dominiramo na planeti, to se vidi uglavnom po korišćenju energije noću, što ovde vidimo. Hajde da se vratimo i spustimo se malo niže i pogledajmo šta se dešava danju. Danju vidimo pejzaže.
This is part of the Amazon Basin, a place called Rondônia in the south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon. If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner, you're going to see a thin white line, which is a road that was built in the 1970s. If we come back to the same place in 2001, what we're going to find is that these roads spurt off more roads, and more roads after that, at the end of which is a small clearing in the rainforest where there are going to be a few cows. These cows are used for beef. We're going to eat these cows. And these cows are eaten basically in South America, in Brazil and Argentina. They're not being shipped up here. But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation is something we notice a lot of around the tropics, especially in this part of the world.
Ovo je deo basena Amazon, mesto se zove Rondonija, u južno-centralnom delu brazilskog Amazona. Ako pažljivo pogledate u gornji desni ugao, videćete tanku, belu liniju, to je u stvari put izgrađen sedamdesetih godina. Ako se vratimo na isto mesto, ali 2001, naići ćemo na to, da se ovi putevi razgranavaju na sve više i više puteva, na čijem kraju je raščišćena prašuma, na mestu gde je par goveda. Goveda se koriste zbog mesa. Poješćemo ih. Ova goveda se uglavnom jedu u Južnoj Americi, Brazilu i Argentini. Ne dostavljaju se ovamo. Samo, ovaj model deforestacije koji se zove riblja kost, je nešto što zapažamo u tropskim područjima, naročito u ovom delu sveta.
If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world, we can go to the Bolivian edge of the Amazon, here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully, there's a thin white line through that kind of seam, and there's a lone farmer out there in the middle of the primeval jungle. Let's come back again a few years later, here in 2003, and we'll see that that landscape actually looks a lot more like Iowa than it does like a rainforest. In fact, what you're seeing here are soybean fields. These soybeans are being shipped to Europe and to China as animal feed, especially after the mad cow disease scare about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed animals animal protein anymore, because that can transmit disease. Instead, we want to feed them more vegetable proteins. So soybeans have really exploded, showing how trade and globalization are really responsible for the connections to rainforests and the Amazon -- an incredibly strange and interconnected world that we have today.
Ako ovu našu malu turu oko sveta produžimo južnije, možemo da odemo do bolivijske ivice Amazona, ovde 1975, ako zaista pažljivo gledate, postoji tanka, bela linija na rubu i tu je usamljeni farmer nasred prvobitne prašume. Hajde da se ponovo vratimo u 2003. i videćemo da pejzaž više liči na Ajovu nego na prašumu. U stvari, ovde se vide polja soje. Soja se isporučuje u Evropu i Kinu kao stočna hrana, naročito posle straha od bolesti ludih krava pre oko jedne decenije. Ne želimo da hranimo životinje životinjskim proteinima, jer to može da prenosi bolest. Umesto toga, želimo da ih hranimo biljnim proteinima. Došlo je do ekspanzije soje, pokazujući da su trgovina i globalizacija zaista odgovorni za vezu između prašuma i Amazona - neverovatno čudan i međusobno povezan svet koji imamo danas.
Well, again and again, what we find as we look around the world in our little tour of the world is that landscape after landscape after landscape have been cleared and altered for growing food and other crops.
Ono što iznova vidimo, dok posmatramo svet u ovoj maloj turi oko sveta, to je da su pejzaži, jedan za drugim iskrčeni i izmenjeni zbog proizvodnje hrane i drugih useva.
So one of the questions we've been asking is, how much of the world is used to grow food, and where is it exactly, and how can we change that into the future, and what does it mean? Well, our team has been looking at this on a global scale, using satellite data and ground-based data kind of to track farming on a global scale. And this is what we found, and it's startling. This map shows the presence of agriculture on planet Earth. The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops, like wheat or soybeans or corn or rice or whatever. That's 16 million square kilometers' worth of land. If you put it all together in one place, it'd be the size of South America. The second area, in brown, is the world's pastures and rangelands, where our animals live. That area's about 30 million square kilometers, or about an Africa's worth of land, a huge amount of land, and it's the best land, of course, is what you see. And what's left is, like, the middle of the Sahara Desert, or Siberia, or the middle of a rain forest. We're using a planet's worth of land already. If we look at this carefully, we find it's about 40 percent of the Earth's land surface is devoted to agriculture, and it's 60 times larger than all the areas we complain about, our suburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live. Half of humanity lives in cities today, but a 60-times-larger area is used to grow food. So this is an amazing kind of result, and it really shocked us when we looked at that.
Jedno od pitanja koje postavljamo je koliko se sveta koristi za proizvodnju hrane, gde se to tačno nalazi i kako to možemo promeniti u budućnosti i šta to znači? Naš tim proučava ovo u svetskoj razmeri, koristeći podatke sa satelita, kao i sa terena, da bismo pratili poljoprivredu u globalnoj razmeri. Ono što smo saznali je potresno. Ova karta pokazuje prisutnost poljoprivrede na planeti Zemlji. Zelena područja su ona na kojima gajimo useve, kao što su soja ili kukuruz ili pirinač ili nešto drugo. To je 16 miliona kvadratnih kilometara zemljišta. Kada bi to skupili na jedno mesto, to bi bilo veličine Južne Amerike. Drugo, braon područje, to su pašnjaci sveta i zemljište pod vegetacijom, gde žive životinje. To područje je oko 30 miliona kvadratnih kilometara ili kao otprilike zemljište Afrike, ogromna količina zemljišta, najboljeg zemljišta naravno, evo, to vidite. Preostalo je, na primer, središnji deo pustinje Sahare ili Sibir ili središte prašume. Već sada koristimo dragoceno zemljište planete. Pažljivim posmatranjem shvatićemo da je oko 40 posto površine Zemlje posvećeno poljoprivredi i to je 60 puta veće od svih područja koja krivimo za širenje naših predgrađa i gradova u kojima živimo. Polovina čovečanstva danas živi u gradovima, a za proizvodnju hrane koristi se 60 puta veće područje od gradskih. Ovaj neverovatan rezultat nas je zaista šokirao, kada smo ga videli.
So we're using an enormous amount of land for agriculture, but also we're using a lot of water. This is a photograph flying into Arizona, and when you look at it, you're like, "What are they growing here?" It turns out they're growing lettuce in the middle of the desert using water sprayed on top. Now, the irony is, it's probably sold in our supermarket shelves in the Twin Cities. But what's really interesting is, this water's got to come from some place, and it comes from here, the Colorado River in North America. Well, the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s, this is just, you know, not a flood, not a drought, kind of an average day, it looks something like this. But if we come back today, during a normal condition to the exact same location, this is what's left. The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food, or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale, you take your pick. Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining water and using it to grow food, and today, if you travel down further down the Colorado, it dries up completely and no longer flows into the ocean. We've literally consumed an entire river in North America for irrigation.
Dakle, neverovatno mnogo zemljišta koristimo za poljoprivredu, a koristimo i mnogo vode. Ova fotografija je iz Arizone i kada je pogledate, pomislite: "Šta se tu proizvodi?". Ispostavlja se, da se proizvodi zelena salata usred pustinje i zaliva se odozgo. Ironija je, da se ona verovatno prodaje na policama naših supermarketa u Mineapolisu i Sent Polu. Ali ono što je zaista zanimljivo, to je da ova voda mora da dođe sa nekog mesta, a dolazi odavde, iz reke Kolorado u Severnoj Americi. Evo, Kolorada jednog običnog dana pedesetih godina, nije ni poplava, ni suša, nego jedan prosečan dan koji izgleda ovako. Ako se vratimo u sadašnjost, u normalne uslove, na upravo istu lokaciju, evo šta je preostalo. Razlika je zbog zalivanja pustinje, da bi se proizvela hrana ili zbog zalivanja golf terena, u Skotsdejlu, izaberite. Ovo je mnogo vode i ponovo crpimo vodu zbog proizvodnje hrane. Kada danas putujete dalje niz reku Kolorado, videćete da je potpuno presušila i više se ne uliva u okean. Potrošili smo, bukvalno, celu jednu reku u Severnoj Americi, na zalivanje.
Well, that's not even the worst example in the world. This probably is: the Aral Sea. Now, a lot you will remember this from your geography classes. This is in the former Soviet Union in between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, one of the great inland seas of the world. But there's kind of a paradox here, because it looks like it's surrounded by desert. Why is this sea here? The reason it's here is because, on the right-hand side, you see two little rivers kind of coming down through the sand, feeding this basin with water. Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains far to the east, where snow melts, it travels down the river through the desert, and forms the great Aral Sea. Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided to divert that water to irrigate the desert to grow cotton, believe it or not, in Kazakhstan, to sell cotton to the international markets to bring foreign currency into the Soviet Union. They really needed the money. Well, you can imagine what happens. You turn off the water supply to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen? Here it is in 1973, 1986, 1999, 2004, and about 11 months ago. It's pretty extraordinary. Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest. Imagine that was Lake Superior. Imagine that was Lake Huron. It's an extraordinary change.
Ovo nije najgori primer na svetu. Ali ovo jeste: Aralsko jezero. Setićete ga se sa časova geografije. Ono je u bivšem Sovjetskom Savezu, između Kazahstana i Uzbekistana, jedno od velikih mora u unutrašnjosti. Postoji paradoks, jer izgleda kao da je okruženo pustinjom. Zašto je ovde? Nalazi se ovde, jer se sa desne strane vide dve male reke kako se spuštaju kroz pesak, napajajući ovaj basen vodom. U te reke otiče otopljen sneg sa planina daleko na istoku, gde se sneg topi, sliva se u reku kroz pustinju i formira veliko Aralsko jezero. 1950. godine Rusi su odlučili da preusmere tu vodu da bi zalivali pustinju radi gajenja pamuka, verovali ili ne, u Kazahstanu, i da bi ga prodavali na međunarodnom tržištu, da privuku stranu valutu u Sovjetski Savez. Zaista im je bio potreban novac. Možete zamisliti šta se dešava. Prekinete dotok vode u Aralsko jezero i šta će se desiti? Evo, 1973, 1986, 1999, 2004. i pre otprilike 11 meseci. Prilično je neobično. Mnogo nas živi na Srednjem zapadu. Zamislite da se to desilo sa Gornjim jezerom. Ili sa jezerom Hjuron.
This is not only a change in water and where the shoreline is, this is a change in the fundamentals of the environment of this region. Let's start with this. The Soviet Union didn't really have a Sierra Club. Let's put it that way. So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea ain't pretty. There's a lot of toxic waste, a lot of things that were dumped there that are now becoming airborne. One of those small islands that was remote and impossible to get to was a site of Soviet biological weapons testing. You can walk there today. Weather patterns have changed. Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only in the Aral Sea are now wiped off the face of the Earth. This is an environmental disaster writ large.
To je neverovatna promena. Nije u pitanju samo voda i položaj obale, promena je fundamentalna za okolinu ove regije. Da počnemo sa ovim. Sovjetski Savez nije imao organizaciju za zaštitu životne sredine. Da kažem to ovako - Ono što se vidi na dnu Aralskog jezera nije lepo. Ima mnogo toksičnog otpada, mnogo tog otpada je sada u vazduhu. Jedno od malih, udaljenih ostrva kojem je pristup bio nemoguć, služilo je za testiranje sovjetskog biološkog oružja. Danas je pristupačno stići tamo. Vremenski obrasci se menjaju. 19 od 20 jedinstvenih ribljih vrsta koje se nalaze u Aralskom jezeru, zbrisano je sa lica Zemlje.
But let's bring it home. This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago that he took when he was in the Soviet Union a long, long time ago, showing the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea. You see the canal they dug? They were so desperate to try to, kind of, float the boats into the remaining pools of water, but they finally had to give up because the piers and the moorings simply couldn't keep up with the retreating shoreline. I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future archaeologists will dig this up and write stories about our time in history, and wonder, "What were you thinking?" Well, that's the future we have to look forward to.
Ovo je ogromna katastrofa. Ali, hajde da se vratimo. Ovo je slika koju mi je Al Gor dao pre nekoliko godina. To je snimio kada je bio u Sovjetskom Savezu pre mnogo godina i prikazane su ribarske flote u Aralskom jezeru. Vidite li kanale koje su iskopali? Očajnički su pokušavali da uvedu čamce u ostatke vode, ali na kraju su morali da odustanu jer stubovi i sidrišta nisu mogli da prate povlačenje obale. Ne znam za vas, ali ja sam užasnut, budući arheolozi će iskopati ovo i pisaće priče o našem vremenu, pitajući se: "O čemu ste mislili?" Ovakvu budućnost očekujemo.
We already use about 50 percent of the Earth's fresh water that's sustainable, and agriculture alone is 70 percent of that. So we use a lot of water, a lot of land for agriculture. We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture. Usually when we think about the atmosphere, we think about climate change and greenhouse gases, and mostly around energy, but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases too. If you look at carbon dioxide from burning tropical rainforest, or methane coming from cows and rice, or nitrous oxide from too many fertilizers, it turns out agriculture is 30 percent of the greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere from human activity. That's more than all our transportation. It's more than all our electricity. It's more than all other manufacturing, in fact. It's the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases of any human activity in the world. And yet, we don't talk about it very much.
Već sada koristimo 50 posto održive vode Zemlje, a od toga 70 posto se troši na poljoprivredu. Mnogo vode, mnogo zemljišta koristimo za poljoprivredu. Čak i od atmosfere koristimo mnogo. Obično, kad pomislimo na atmosferu, mislimo o klimatskim promenama i o gasovima staklene bašte i uglavnom o energiji, a ispostavlja se, da je poljoprivreda jedan od najvećih emitera gasova staklene bašte. Ako pogledate ugljen dioksid iz zapaljenih tropskih prašuma ili metan koji potiče od goveda i pirinča ili azotni oksid iz previše đubriva, ispostavlja se da se 30 posto gasova staklene bašte oslobađa u atmosferu zbog ljudske aktivnosti. To je više od celokupnog saobraćaja. Više od celokupne električne energije. U stvari, više od celokupne proizvodnje. Poljoprivreda je najveći emiter gasova koji potiče od delatnosti ljudi. Ipak se ne govori mnogo o tome.
So we have this incredible presence today of agriculture dominating our planet, whether it's 40 percent of our land surface, 70 percent of the water we use, 30 percent of our greenhouse gas emissions. We've doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorus around the world simply by using fertilizers, causing huge problems of water quality from rivers, lakes, and even oceans, and it's also the single biggest driver of biodiversity loss. So without a doubt, agriculture is the single most powerful force unleashed on this planet since the end of the ice age. No question. And it rivals climate change in importance. And they're both happening at the same time.
Neverovatno je prisustvo poljoprivrede danas, ona dominira našom planetom, bilo da zauzma 40 posto površine zemlje, 70 posto vode koju koristimo ili učestvuje sa 30 posto u emisiji gasova. Duplirali smo kruženje azota i fosfora u svetu samo zbog upotrebe đubriva, narušavajući kvalitet voda u rekama, jezerima, čak i u okeanima. Poljoprivreda je najveći pokretač gubitka biodiverziteta. Bez sumnje, poljoprivreda je najveća oslobođena snaga na ovoj planeti od završetka ledenog doba. Bez sumnje. Po važnosti, rival je klimatskoj promeni.
But what's really important here to remember is that it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's a bad thing. In fact, we completely depend on it. It's not optional. It's not a luxury. It's an absolute necessity. We have to provide food and feed and, yeah, fiber and even biofuels to something like seven billion people in the world today, and if anything, we're going to have the demands on agriculture increase into the future. It's not going to go away. It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly because of growing population. We're seven billion people today heading towards at least nine, probably nine and a half before we're done. More importantly, changing diets. As the world becomes wealthier as well as more populous, we're seeing increases in dietary consumption of meat, which take a lot more resources than a vegetarian diet does. So more people, eating more stuff, and richer stuff, and of course having an energy crisis at the same time, where we have to replace oil with other energy sources that will ultimately have to include some kinds of biofuels and bio-energy sources. So you put these together. It's really hard to see how we're going to get to the rest of the century without at least doubling global agricultural production.
A obe se dešavaju istovremeno. Ali, važno je napomenuti, nije sve tako loše. Nije stvar u tome da je poljoprivreda loša. U stvari, u potpunosti zavisimo od nje. Ona je obavezna. Nije luksuz. Ona je apsolutna potreba. Moramo obezbediti hranu za ljude i stoku, vlakna i biogorivo za današnjih sedam milijardi ljudi sveta. Tražićemo da se poljoprivreda čak i uveća u budućnosti. Potrebe neće prestati, mnogo će se uvećati, uglavnom zbog porasta populacije. Danas nas ima sedam milijardi, ali idemo ka najmanje devet, možda devet i po dok se osvrnemo. Što je još važnije, menja se način ishrane. Kako svet postaje bogatiji, a i brojniji, vidimo porast potrošnje mesa, što koristi mnogo više resursa nego vegetarijanska ishrana. Više ljudi jede više, bogatiju hranu, a istovremeno imamo i krizu energenata, moramo zameniti naftu drugim izvorima energije, što će automatski uključiti neke vrste biogoriva i izvore bioenergije. Sve to zajedno znači da je teško shvatiti: teško je predvideti kako ćemo stići do kraja veka bez barem udvostručenja svetske poljoprivredne proizvodnje.
Well, how are we going to do this? How are going to double global ag production around the world?
Pa, kako ćemo to uraditi? Kako ćemo udvostručiti svetsku poljoprivrednu proizvodnju?
Well, we could try to farm more land. This is an analysis we've done, where on the left is where the crops are today, on the right is where they could be based on soils and climate, assuming climate change doesn't disrupt too much of this, which is not a good assumption. We could farm more land, but the problem is the remaining lands are in sensitive areas. They have a lot of biodiversity, a lot of carbon, things we want to protect. So we could grow more food by expanding farmland, but we'd better not, because it's ecologically a very, very dangerous thing to do.
Možemo pokušati da obrađujemo više zemljišta. Ovo je analiza koju smo uradili, levo su usevi danas, desno je gde bi mogli biti na osnovu zemljišta i klime, pretpostavljajući da klimatska promena ne remeti mnogo od ovoga, što i nije dobra pretpostavka. Mogli bismo obrađivati i više zemljišta, ali problem je u tome što je ostatak zemljišta u osetljivim područjima. Ona imaju bogat biodiverzitet, mnogo ugljenika, stvari koje želimo da zaštitimo. Mogli bismo da proizvodimo više hrane uvećanjem obradivog zemljišta, ali bolje je da to ne radimo, jer je sa aspekta ekologije to veoma opasno.
Instead, we maybe want to freeze the footprint of agriculture and farm the lands we have better. This is work that we're doing to try to highlight places in the world where we could improve yields without harming the environment. The green areas here show where corn yields, just showing corn as an example, are already really high, probably the maximum you could find on Earth today for that climate and soil, but the brown areas and yellow areas are places where we're only getting maybe 20 or 30 percent of the yield you should be able to get. You see a lot of this in Africa, even Latin America, but interestingly, Eastern Europe, where Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc countries used to be, is still a mess agriculturally. Now, this would require nutrients and water. It's going to either be organic or conventional or some mix of the two to deliver that. Plants need water and nutrients. But we can do this, and there are opportunities to make this work.
Umesto toga, mogli bismo da zamrznemo uticaj poljoprivrede i da bolje obrađujemo postojeće zemljište. Ovde pokušavamo da naglasimo mesta u svetu, gde bismo mogli povećati prinose, a da ne štetimo okolini. Zelena područja pokazuju polja kukuruza, navodimo kukuruz kao primer, gde su prinosi zaista visoki, verovatno maksimalni za tu klimu i tlo, a braon i žuta područja su mesta gde su prinosi samo 20 ili 30 posto od onoga što bi trebalo da dobijemo. Ovo se dešava najviše u Africi, čak i u Latinskoj Americi, ali zanimljivo je da u Istočnoj Evropi, gde se nalazio Sovjetski savez i gde su bile zemlje Istočnog bloka, poljoprivreda još uvek nije uređena. Potrebna je hrana i voda. Može biti organska ili konvencionalna ili neka mešavina i jednog i drugog. Biljkama je potrebna voda i hrana. Postoje šanse da uspemo u ovome.
But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive to meeting the food security needs of the future and the environmental security needs of the future. We have to figure out how to make this tradeoff between growing food and having a healthy environment work better.
Moramo to uraditi tako da vodimo računa i zadovoljimo potrebe za bezbednošću hrane u budućnosti i bezbednosti okoline u budućnosti. Moramo otkriti kako doći do kompromisa između veće proizvodnje hrane i bezbedne delatnosti po okolinu.
Right now, it's kind of an all-or-nothing proposition. We can grow food in the background -- that's a soybean field — and in this flower diagram, it shows we grow a lot of food, but we don't have a lot clean water, we're not storing a lot of carbon, we don't have a lot of biodiversity. In the foreground, we have this prairie that's wonderful from the environmental side, but you can't eat anything. What's there to eat? We need to figure out how to bring both of those together into a new kind of agriculture that brings them all together.
Sada je to vrsta plana sve-ili-ništa. Možemo proizvoditi hranu u ovim okolnostima - ovo su polja soje, i ovaj dijagram pokazuje da proizvodimo mnogo hrane, ali nemamo mnogo čiste vode, ne skladištimo ugljenik, nemamo razgranat biodiverzitet. U prvom planu imamo ovo preriju, koja je divna sa tačke gledišta okoline, ali tu ništa nije jestivo. Šta može ovde da se jede? Moramo smisliti način kako da spojimo ovo u jednu novu vrstu poljoprivrede koja sve spaja.
Now, when I talk about this, people often tell me, "Well, isn't blank the answer?" -- organic food, local food, GMOs, new trade subsidies, new farm bills -- and yeah, we have a lot of good ideas here, but not any one of these is a silver bullet. In fact, what I think they are is more like silver buckshot. And I love silver buckshot. You put it together and you've got something really powerful, but we need to put them together.
Kada o ovome pričam, ljudi mi često govore: "Zar odgovor nije _____?" - organska hrana, lokalna hrana, GMO, nove trgovačke subvencije, novi računi za farme - imamo mnogo dobrih ideja ovde, ali nijedna nije pravi pogodak. Više liči na sačmu. A ja volim pravi pogodak. Sastavite ih i dobijate nešto zaista moćno, ali potrebno je da ih spojimo.
So what we have to do, I think, is invent a new kind of agriculture that blends the best ideas of commercial agriculture and the green revolution with the best ideas of organic farming and local food and the best ideas of environmental conservation, not to have them fighting each other but to have them collaborating together to form a new kind of agriculture, something I call "terraculture," or farming for a whole planet.
Ono što moramo uraditi je to da otkrijemo novu vrstu poljoprivrede, mešavinu najboljih ideja komercijalne poljoprivrede i zelene revolucije sa najboljim idejama o organskoj proizvodnji i lokalnoj hrani i sa najboljim idejama o zaštiti životne sredine; da se ne sukobljavaju jedna sa drugom, nego da sarađuju; da bismo stvorili novu vrstu poljoprivrede; nešto, što ja zovem "zemljokulturom", odnosno proizvodnjom za celu planetu.
Now, having this conversation has been really hard, and we've been trying very hard to bring these key points to people to reduce the controversy, to increase the collaboration. I want to show you a short video that does kind of show our efforts right now to bring these sides together into a single conversation. So let me show you that. (Music) ("Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota: Driven to Discover") (Music) ("The world population is growing by 75 million people each year. That's almost the size of Germany. Today, we're nearing 7 billion people. At this rate, we'll reach 9 billion people by 2040. And we all need food. But how? How do we feed a growing world without destroying the planet? We already know climate change is a big problem. But it's not the only problem. We need to face 'the other inconvenient truth.' A global crisis in agriculture. Population growth + meat consumption + dairy consumption + energy costs + bioenergy production = stress on natural resources. More than 40% of Earth's land has been cleared for agriculture. Global croplands cover 16 million km². That's almost the size of South America. Global pastures cover 30 million km². That's the size of Africa. Agriculture uses 60 times more land than urban and suburban areas combined. Irrigation is the biggest use of water on the planet. We use 2,800 cubic kilometers of water on crops every year. That's enough to fill 7,305 Empire State Buildings every day. Today, many large rivers have reduced flows. Some dry up altogether. Look at the Aral Sea, now turned to desert. Or the Colorado River, which no longer flows to the ocean. Fertilizers have more than doubled the phosphorus and nitrogen in the environment. The consequence? Widespread water pollution and massive degradation of lakes and rivers. Surprisingly, agriculture is the biggest contributor to climate change. It generates 30% of greenhouse gas emissions. That's more than the emissions from all electricity and industry, or from all the world's planes, trains and automobiles. Most agricultural emissions come from tropical deforestation, methane from animals and rice fields, and nitrous oxide from over-fertilizing. There is nothing we do that transforms the world more than agriculture. And there's nothing we do that is more crucial to our survival. Here's the dilemma... As the world grows by several billion more people, We'll need to double, maybe even triple, global food production. So where do we go from here? We need a bigger conversation, an international dialogue. We need to invest in real solutions: incentives for farmers, precision agriculture, new crop varieties, drip irrigation, gray water recycling, better tillage practices, smarter diets. We need everyone at the table. Advocates of commercial agriculture, environmental conservation, and organic farming... must work together. There is no single solution. We need collaboration, imagination, determination, because failure is not an option. How do we feed the world without destroying it? Yeah, so we face one of the greatest grand challenges in all of human history today: the need to feed nine billion people and do so sustainably and equitably and justly, at the same time protecting our planet for this and future generations. This is going to be one of the hardest things we ever have done in human history, and we absolutely have to get it right, and we have to get it right on our first and only try. So thanks very much. (Applause)
Pošto je ovo dogovaranje zaista teško i ozbiljno smo se trudili da damo ove ključne tačke ljudima, da smanjimo polemiku, a povećamo saradnju. Želim da vam pokažem kratak video koji pokazuje naše napore da približimo obe strane u jedan razgovor. Dozvolite da vam to prikažem. (Muzika) [Institut za zaštitu okoline, Univerzitet u Minesoti: Podstaknut za otkrivanjem] (Muzika) [Svetsko stanovništvo uvećava se svake godine za 75 miliona ljudi. To je skoro veličina Nemačke. Danas smo se približili broju od 7 milijardi ljudi. Ovim tempom, do 2040. godine biće 9 milijardi ljudi. Svima nam je potrebna hrana. Ali kako? Kako ćemo hraniti svet, a da ne uništimo planetu? Već znamo da je klimatska promena veliki problem. Ali nije jedini. Moramo se suočiti sa "drugom neprijatnom istinom". Sa svetskom krizom poljoprivrede. Porast stanovništva + potrošnja mesa + potrošnja mleka + cena energije + proizvodnja bioenergije = pritisak na prirodne resurse. Više od 40 posto obradive zemlje je nestalo zbog poljoprivrede. Njive u svetu pokrivaju 16 miliona km². To je skoro veličina Južne Amerike. Pašnjaci pokrivaju 30 miliona km². To je veličina Afrike. Poljoprivreda koristi 60 puta više zemljišta od gradskih i prigradskih područja zajedno. Zalivanje je najveći potrošač vode na planeti. Svake godine koristimo 2800 km³ vode za zalivanje useva. To je dovoljno da se napuni 7.305 zgrada Empire State svakog dana. Danas mnoge velike reke imaju smanjen protok. Neke se skroz isuše. Pogledajte Aralsko jezero, pretvorilo se u pustinju. Reka Kolorado se više ne uliva u okean. Đubriva su više nego udvostručila količinu fosfora i azota u okolini. A posledica toga? Zagađenje vode širom sveta i masovna degradacija jezera i reka. Začudo, poljoprivreda najviše doprinosi klimatskoj promeni. Ona stvara 30% emisije gasova staklene bašte. To je više od emisije celokupne električne energije i industrije ili od emisije svih aviona, vozova i automobila na svetu. Većina poljoprivrednih emisija dolazi od krčenja tropskih šuma, metana životinjskog porekla i sa pirinčanih polja i od azot oksida zbog preterane upotrebe đubriva. Ništa ne transformiše svet više od poljoprivrede. I ništa od ovoga nije sudbonosnije za naš opstanak. Evo dileme... pošto se svet uvećava za nekoliko milijardi ljudi, moraćemo udvostručiti ili čak utrostručiti svetsku poljoprivrednu proizvodnju. Kuda da idemo odavde? Potreban nam je opširniji razgovor, međunarodni dijalog. Moramo investirati u prava rešenja: podsticaje za farmere, preciznu poljoprivredu, stvaranje novih vrsta useva, navodnjavanje kap po kap, recikliranje otpadne vode, bolju praksu oranja, pametniju ishranu. Potrebno je da se svi okupe. Zagovornici komercijalne poljoprivrede, očuvanja životne okoline i organske proizvodnje... svi moraju raditi zajedno. Nema prostog rešenja. Potrebna nam je saradnja, mašta, odlučnost, jer ne smemo pogrešiti. Kako ćemo hraniti svet, a da ga ne uništimo?] Suočavamo se sa jednim od najvećih izazova u ljudskoj istoriji danas: to je ishrana devet milijardi ljudi, a da to bude održivo, ravnopravno i pravedno, a istovremeno i da zaštitimo našu planetu za ovu, a i sledeće generacije. Ovo će biti jedna od najtežih stvari koju smo ikada uradili u ljudskoj istoriji i moramo ovo apsolutno tačno uraditi i to iz prvog i jedinog pokušaja. Hvala mnogo. (Aplauz)