On March 10, 2011, I was in Cambridge at the MIT Media Lab meeting with faculty, students and staff, and we were trying to figure out whether I should be the next director.
Dana 10. ožujka 2011. godine bio sam u MIT-ovom medijskom laboratoriju u Cambridgeu na sastanku s nastavnicima, studentima i ostalim osobljem te smo pokušavali odlučiti bi li ja trebao biti sljedeći ravnatelj.
That night, at midnight, a magnitude 9 earthquake hit off of the Pacific coast of Japan. My wife and family were in Japan, and as the news started to come in, I was panicking. I was looking at the news streams and listening to the press conferences of the government officials and the Tokyo Power Company, and hearing about this explosion at the nuclear reactors and this cloud of fallout that was headed towards our house which was only about 200 kilometers away. And the people on TV weren't telling us anything that we wanted to hear. I wanted to know what was going on with the reactor, what was going on with the radiation, whether my family was in danger.
Te noći, u ponoć, potres jačine 9 stupnjeva prema Richteru je pogodio pacifičku obalu Japana. Moja žena i obitelj su bili u Japanu, i kako su vijesti pristizale, paničario sam. Gledao sam vijesti i slušao konferencije za novinare vladinih dužnosnika i kompanije Tokyo Power Company i slušao o eksploziji kod nuklearnih reaktora i o oblaku radioaktivne prašine koji je išao prema našoj kući a koja je bila udaljena samo 200 km. Ljudi s TV-a nisu govorili ono što smo željeli čuti. Želio sam znati što se događa s reaktorom, što se događa s radijacijom, je li moja obitelj u opasnosti.
So I did what instinctively felt like the right thing, which was to go onto the Internet and try to figure out if I could take matters into my own hands. On the Net, I found there were a lot of other people like me trying to figure out what was going on, and together we sort of loosely formed a group and we called it Safecast, and we decided we were going to try to measure the radiation and get the data out to everybody else, because it was clear that the government wasn't going to be doing this for us.
Pa sam instinktivno učinio ono što sam osjećao da je ispravno, otišao sam na Internet i pokušao vidjeti bi li mogao uzeti stvari u svoje ruke. Na Netu sam našao mnoštvo ljudi koji su poput mene pokušavali saznati što se događa, i zajedno smo formirali poprilično slobodnu grupu koju smo nazvali 'Safecast', i odlučili smo pokušati izmjeriti radijaciju i objaviti podatke svima jer je bilo jasno da vlada neće učiniti to za nas.
Three years later, we have 16 million data points, we have designed our own Geiger counters that you can download the designs and plug it into the network. We have an app that shows you most of the radiation in Japan and other parts of the world. We are arguably one of the most successful citizen science projects in the world, and we have created the largest open dataset of radiation measurements.
Tri godine kasnije imamo 16 milijuna točaka podataka, izradili smo vlastite Geigerove brojače čiji dizajn možete skinuti s neta i ukopčati ih na mrežu. Imamo aplikaciju koja pokazuje većinu radijacije u Japanu i u drugim dijelovima svijeta. Mi smo nedvojbeno jedan od najuspješnijih projekata građanske inicijative u području znanosti u cijelom svijetu i napravili smo najveći otvoreni skup podataka mjerenja radijacije.
And the interesting thing here is how did — (Applause) — Thank you. How did a bunch of amateurs who really didn't know what we were doing somehow come together and do what NGOs and the government were completely incapable of doing? And I would suggest that this has something to do with the Internet. It's not a fluke. It wasn't luck, and it wasn't because it was us. It helped that it was an event that pulled everybody together, but it was a new way of doing things that was enabled by the Internet and a lot of the other things that were going on, and I want to talk a little bit about what those new principles are.
A zanimljiva stvar u svemu ovome je kako se - (Pljesak) - Hvala vam. Kako se skupina amatera, koji nisu znali što zapravo rade, nekako povezala i rade ono za što su nevladine organizacije i sama vlada bile potpuno nesposobne napraviti? I rekao bih da ovaj uspjeh ima veze s Internetom. To nije slučajnost. To nije bila samo sreća, i to se nije dogodilo zato što smo to bili mi. Sigurno je pomoglo to što se radilo o događaju koji je zbližio ljude, ali bio je to novi način 'kako raditi stvari' omogućen od strane Interneta kao i mnogo drugih stvari koje su se događale, i želio bih pričati malo o tim novim principima.
So remember before the Internet? (Laughter) I call this B.I. Okay? So, in B.I., life was simple. Things were Euclidian, Newtonian, somewhat predictable. People actually tried to predict the future, even the economists. And then the Internet happened, and the world became extremely complex, extremely low-cost, extremely fast, and those Newtonian laws that we so dearly cherished turned out to be just local ordinances, and what we found was that in this completely unpredictable world that most of the people who were surviving were working with sort of a different set of principles, and I want to talk a little bit about that.
Sjećate li se vremena prije Interneta? (Smijeh) To vrijeme zovem P.I. Dobro? Život je bio jednostavan P.I. Stvari su bile euklidske, newtonovske, nekako predvidljive. Ljudi su pokušavali predvidjeti budućnost, čak i ekonomisti. A tada se dogodio Internet i svijet je postao izuzetno složen, izuzetno jeftin i brz a newtonovski zakoni koje smo toliko njegovali su se na kraju pretvorili u obična lokalna pravila, a ono što smo otkrili jest da u ovom potpuno nepredvidivom svijetu većina ljudi koja preživljava živi slijedeći drugačiji skup principa i želio bih govoriti malo o tome.
Before the Internet, if you remember, when we tried to create services, what you would do is you'd create the hardware layer and the network layer and the software and it would cost millions of dollars to do anything that was substantial. So when it costs millions of dollars to do something substantial, what you would do is you'd get an MBA who would write a plan and get the money from V.C.s or big companies, and then you'd hire the designers and the engineers, and they'd build the thing. This is the Before Internet, B.I., innovation model. What happened after the Internet was the cost of innovation went down so much because the cost of collaboration, the cost of distribution, the cost of communication, and Moore's Law made it so that the cost of trying a new thing became nearly zero, and so you would have Google, Facebook, Yahoo, students that didn't have permission — permissionless innovation — didn't have permission, didn't have PowerPoints, they just built the thing, then they raised the money, and then they sort of figured out a business plan and maybe later on they hired some MBAs. So the Internet caused innovation, at least in software and services, to go from an MBA-driven innovation model to a designer-engineer-driven innovation model, and it pushed innovation to the edges, to the dorm rooms, to the startups, away from the large institutions, the stodgy old institutions that had the power and the money and the authority. And we all know this. We all know this happened on the Internet. It turns out it's happening in other things, too. Let me give you some examples.
Prije Interneta, ako se možete sjetiti, kad smo pokušavali nuditi razne usluge prvo biste stvorili hardware sloj i mrežni sloj i software i bili su potrebni milijuni dolara da biste napravili išta iole bitno. Kada su potrebni milijuni dolara da napravite bilo što od značaja, prvo nabavite magistra poslovnog upravljanja koji vam tada složi poslovni plan i nabavi novac od ulagača rizičnog kapitala ili od velikih kompanija, tada zaposlite dizajnere i inženjere i oni vam naprave željeni proizvod. Ovo je inovacijski model ere prije interneta, P.I. ere. Dolaskom Interneta drastično se smanjio trošak inovacije jer su cijena suradnje, cijena distribucije cijena komunikacije kao i Mooreov zakon doveli do toga da je cijena pokušavanja novih stvari danas ravna nuli, i tako imate Google, Facebook, Yahoo studente koji nemaju odobrenje -- inovacija bez odobrenja -- nemaju odobrenje, nisu imali PowerPoint prezentacije, oni bi samo izradili proizvod, onda skupili novac i tek tada bi smislili nekakav poslovni plan i možda bi poslije zaposlili magistra poslovnog upravljanja. Internet je donio inovaciju barem što se tiče područja softwarea i usluga, napustio se inovacijski model vođen magistrom poslovnog upravljanja a usvojio se inovacijski model vođen tandemom dizajner-inženjer, ovom promjenom inovacija je gurnuta na rubove, u studentske sobe i startup kompanije, daleko od velikih institucija, ukočenih starih institucija koje su imale moć i novac i autoritet. Svi to znamo. Svi znamo da se ovo dogodilo na Internetu. Ali čini se da se događa i drugdje također. Dat ću vam nekoliko primjera.
So at the Media Lab, we don't just do hardware. We do all kinds of things. We do biology, we do hardware, and Nicholas Negroponte famously said, "Demo or die," as opposed to "Publish or perish," which was the traditional academic way of thinking. And he often said, the demo only has to work once, because the primary mode of us impacting the world was through large companies being inspired by us and creating products like the Kindle or Lego Mindstorms. But today, with the ability to deploy things into the real world at such low cost, I'm changing the motto now, and this is the official public statement. I'm officially saying, "Deploy or die." You have to get the stuff into the real world for it to really count, and sometimes it will be large companies, and Nicholas can talk about satellites. (Applause) Thank you. But we should be getting out there ourselves and not depending on large institutions to do it for us.
U medijskom laboratoriju ne izrađujemo samo hardware. Bavimo se mnogim stvarima. Bavimo se biologijom, bavimo se hardwareom, i čuvene riječi Nicholasa Negropontea bile su: " Demonstrirati ili umrijeti", nasuprot sloganu "objaviti ili nestati", koji oslikava klasičan akademski način razmišljanja. I često je govorio, demonstracija mora uspjeti samo jednom, jer je glavni način na koji smo mogli utjecati na svijet bio upravo kroz velike kompanije koje smo uspjeli inspirirati i stvoriti proizvode poput Kindlea ili Lego Mindstormsa. Ali danas imamo mogućnost dati svijetu proizvode i to za tako malu cijenu i zato sada mijenjam slogan i ovo je službena izjava. Službeno izjavljujem "Deployay ili umri". Morate pustiti proizvode u stvarni svijet kako bi od njih bilo prave koristi, i nekad će to biti velike kompanije i Nicholas može pričati o satelitima. (Pljesak) Hvala vam. Ali mi sami moramo izaći vani u pravi svijet i ne ovisiti o velikim institucijama da čine stvari za nas.
So last year, we sent a bunch of students to Shenzhen, and they sat on the factory floors with the innovators in Shenzhen, and it was amazing. What was happening there was you would have these manufacturing devices, and they weren't making prototypes or PowerPoints. They were fiddling with the manufacturing equipment and innovating right on the manufacturing equipment. The factory was in the designer, and the designer was literally in the factory. And so what you would do is, you'd go down to the stalls and you would see these cell phones. So instead of starting little websites like the kids in Palo Alto do, the kids in Shenzhen make new cell phones. They make new cell phones like kids in Palo Alto make websites, and so there's a rainforest of innovation going on in the cell phone. What they do is, they make a cell phone, go down to the stall, they sell some, they look at the other kids' stuff, go up, make a couple thousand more, go down. Doesn't this sound like a software thing? It sounds like agile software development, A/B testing and iteration, and what we thought you could only do with software kids in Shenzhen are doing this in hardware. My next fellow, I hope, is going to be one of these innovators from Shenzhen.
Prošle godine poslali smo grupu studenata u Shenzhen koji su sjedili na podovima tvornica zajedno s inovatorima u Shenzhenu, i to je bilo čudesno. Ono što se tamo zapravo događalo jest to da su tamo bili uređaji za proizvodnju, i oni nisu izrađivali prototipove ili PowerPoint prezentacije Oni su prčkali po opremi za proizvodnju i radili inovacije upravo na samoj opremi za proizvodnju. Tvornica je bila u dizajneru i dizajner je bio doslovno u tvornici. I što se događalo, otišli biste do štandova i vidjeli biste mobitele. Umjesto da pokrećete male web stranice kao što to čine djeca u Palo Altu, djeca u Shenzhenu izrađuju nove mobitele. Oni izrađuju nove mobitele kao što djeca u Palo Altu izrađuju web stranice, i tamo se događa mnoštvo inovacija na području mobilnih telefona. Oni naprave mobitel, odu do štandova, prodaju nekoliko komada, pogledaju proizvode druge djece, popnu se, naprave još nekoliko tisuća komada, spuste se ponovno dolje. Da li vas ovo podsejća na razvoj softwarea? Ovo zvuči kao agilan razvoj softwarea, A/B testiranje i iteracija, i ono što smo mislili da možete napraviti samo sa softwareom djeca u Shezhenu rade s hardwareom. Moj sljedeći kolega, nadam se, bit će jedan od ovih inovatora iz Shenzhena.
And so what you see is that is pushing innovation to the edges. We talk about 3D printers and stuff like that, and that's great, but this is Limor. She is one of our favorite graduates, and she is standing in front of a Samsung Techwin Pick and Place Machine. This thing can put 23,000 components per hour onto an electronics board. This is a factory in a box. So what used to take a factory full of workers working by hand in this little box in New York, she's able to have effectively — She doesn't actually have to go to Shenzhen to do this manufacturing. She can buy this box and she can manufacture it. So manufacturing, the cost of innovation, the cost of prototyping, distribution, manufacturing, hardware, is getting so low that innovation is being pushed to the edges and students and startups are being able to build it. This is a recent thing, but this will happen and this will change just like it did with software.
I ono što vidite jest da se inovacija premjestila na rubove. Govorimo o 3D printerima i sličnim stvarima, i to je super, ali ovo je Limor. Ona nam je jedna od najdražih diplomanata, a stoji ispred Samsungovog Techwin 'Pick and Place' uređaja. Ovaj uređaj može u sat vremena staviti 23,000 komponenata na elektronsku ploču. Ovo je tvornica u kutiji. Za ono za što je nekada bila potrebna tvornica puna radnika koji rade ručno, u ovoj maloj kutijici u New Yorku, ona može učinkovito obaviti sve to -- Ona ne mora zapravo ići u Shenzhen da bi proizvodila. Ona može kupiti ovu kutiju a može je i proizvesti. Proizvodnja, cijena inovacije, cijena izrade prototipa, distribucija, proizvodnja, hardware sve to postaje toliko jeftino da se inovacija premješta na rubove i prelazi u ruke studenata i startupova. Ovo se dogodilo tek nedavno, ali ovo će se dogoditi i ovo će se promijeniti kao što se dogodilo i sa softwareom.
Sorona is a DuPont process that uses a genetically engineered microbe to turn corn sugar into polyester. It's 30 percent more efficient than the fossil fuel method, and it's much better for the environment. Genetic engineering and bioengineering are creating a whole bunch of great new opportunities for chemistry, for computation, for memory. We will probably be doing a lot, obviously doing health things, but we will probably be growing chairs and buildings soon. The problem is, Sorona costs about 400 million dollars and took seven years to build. It kind of reminds you of the old mainframe days. The thing is, the cost of innovation in bioengineering is also going down. This is desktop gene sequencer. It used to cost millions and millions of dollars to sequence genes. Now you can do it on a desktop like this, and kids can do this in dorm rooms. This is Gen9 gene assembler, and so right now when you try to print a gene, what you do is somebody in a factory with pipettes puts the thing together by hand, you have one error per 100 base pairs, and it takes a long time and costs a lot of money. This new device assembles genes on a chip, and instead of one error per 100 base pairs, it's one error per 10,000 base pairs. In this lab, we will have the world's capacity of gene printing within a year, 200 million base pairs a year. This is kind of like when we went from transistor radios wrapped by hand to the Pentium. This is going to become the Pentium of bioengineering, pushing bioengineering into the hands of dorm rooms and startup companies.
Sorona je Dupont proces koji koristi mikrobe stvorene genetskim inženjeringom kako bi pretvorio kukuruzni šećer u poliester. Ova metoda je 30 posto učinkovitija od korištenja fosilinih goriva i sigurnija je za okoliš. Genetski inženjering kao i bioinženjering stvaraju mnoštvo sjajnih novih mogućnosti u području kemije, računanja i memorije Radit ćemo vjerojatno mnogo, zasigurno mnogo stvari vezanih za zdravlje, ali vjerojatno ćemo uzgajati stolice i zgrade uskoro. Problem je što Sorona košta oko 400 milijuna dolara i bilo je potrebno 7 godina da se izgradi. Ovo vas pomalo podsjeća na stare dane središnjih računala. Stvar je u tome što se cijena inovacije u bioinženjeringu također spušta dolje. Ovo je sučelje za sekvenciranje gena. Nekad je sekvenciranje gena koštalo milijune i miijune dolara. Danas to možete napraviti na sučelju poput ovoga, danas to mogu napraviti i mladi u svojim studentskim sobama. Ovo je assembler gena 'Gen9' i sada kada pokušate isprintati gen, netko u tvornici to slaže ručno koristeći pipete, tada imate jednu grešku na 100 baznih parova, postupak traje dugo i košta mnogo novca. Ovaj novi uređaj sastavlja gene na čipu i umjesto jedne greške na 100 baznih parova, radi jednu grešku na 10,000 baznih parova. U ovom laboratoriju ostvarit ćemo svjetski kapacitet printanja gena u roku od jedne godine, 200 milijuna baznih parova godišnje. Ovo je nešto poput onoga kad smo prešli sa tranzistorskih radija koji su se motali ručno na Pentium. Ovo će postati Pentium bioinženjeringa, gurajući bioinženjering u ruke studenata u studentskim domovima i u ruke startup kompanija.
So it's happening in software and in hardware and bioengineering, and so this is a fundamental new way of thinking about innovation. It's a bottom-up innovation, it's democratic, it's chaotic, it's hard to control. It's not bad, but it's very different, and I think that the traditional rules that we have for institutions don't work anymore, and most of us here operate with a different set of principles. One of my favorite principles is the power of pull, which is the idea of pulling resources from the network as you need them rather than stocking them in the center and controlling everything.
Ovo se događa u softwareu, hardwareu i bioinženjeringu, i ovo je fundamentalno novi način razmišljanja o inovaciji. Ovo je inovacija odozdo-prema-gore, ona je demokratična ona je kaotična i teško ju je kontrolirati. Nije loša već mnogo drugačija, i mislim da tradicionalna pravila koja imamo za institucije više ne važe, i većina nas ovdje slijede drugi set načela. Jedan od mojih najdražih načela jest moć povlačenja, tu se radi o ideji povlačenja sredstava iz mreže kada ih trebate umjesto da ih skupljate i skladištite u centru i da kontrolirate sve.
So in the case of the Safecast story, I didn't know anything when the earthquake happened, but I was able to find Sean who was the hackerspace community organizer, and Peter, the analog hardware hacker who made our first Geiger counter, and Dan, who built the Three Mile Island monitoring system after the Three Mile Island meltdown. And these people I wouldn't have been able to find beforehand and probably were better that I found them just in time from the network.
U slučaju 'Safecast' nisam znao ništa kad se dogodio potres, ali sam uspio naći Seana koji je bio organizator 'hackerspace' zajednice, i Petera, hakera analognog hardwarea koji je napravio naš prvi Geigerov brojač, i Dana, koji je napravio 'Three Mile Island' nadzorni sustav nakon topljenja jezgre nuklearnog reaktora u 'Three Mile Island' Ove ljude ne bih uspio naći prije svega ovoga i vjerojatno je bolje što sam ih našao baš na vrijeme, na mreži.
I'm a three-time college dropout, so learning over education is very near and dear to my heart, but to me, education is what people do to you and learning is what you do to yourself.
Ja sam tri puta odustajao od fakulteta, tako da je učenje prije obrazovanja uvijek bilo veoma drago i blisko mome srcu, ali za mene je obrazovanje ono što ljudi čine tebi a učenje je ono što radiš sam sebi.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
And it feels like, and I'm biased, it feels like they're trying to make you memorize the whole encyclopedia before they let you go out and play, and to me, I've got Wikipedia on my cell phone, and it feels like they assume you're going to be on top of some mountain all by yourself with a number 2 pencil trying to figure out what to do when in fact you're always going to be connected, you're always going to have friends, and you can pull Wikipedia up whenever you need it, and what you need to learn is how to learn. In the case of Safecast, a bunch of amateurs when we started three years ago, I would argue that we probably as a group know more than any other organization about how to collect data and publish data and do citizen science.
I kao da, ja sam tu posve pristran, i kao da vas tjeraju da naučite napamet cijelu enciklopediju prije negoli vas puste van da se igrate, što se mene tiče, imam Wikipediu na mobitelu a oni kao da pretpostavljaju da ćete se naći na vrhu neke planine sami s olovkom broj 2 pokušavajući smisliti što učiniti a ustvari ćete uvijek biti spojeni, uvijek ćete imati prijatelje, a Wikipediu možete pogledati kadgod vam zatreba, i ono što trebate naučiti jest kako učiti. U slučaju Safecast koji je bio samo grupa amatera kad smo počinjali prije tri godine, ali tvrdim da kao grupa vjerojatno znamo više od bilo koje druge organizacije kako prikupljati i objavljivati podatke i kako se baviti znanošću kroz građansku inicijativu.
Compass over maps. So this one, the idea is that the cost of writing a plan or mapping something is getting so expensive and it's not very accurate or useful. So in the Safecast story, we knew we needed to collect data, we knew we wanted to publish the data, and instead of trying to come up with the exact plan, we first said, oh, let's get Geiger counters. Oh, they've run out. Let's build them. There aren't enough sensors. Okay, then we can make a mobile Geiger counter. We can drive around. We can get volunteers. We don't have enough money. Let's Kickstarter it. We could not have planned this whole thing, but by having a very strong compass, we eventually got to where we were going, and to me it's very similar to agile software development, but this idea of compasses is very important.
Usmjerenost ispred plana. Postoji mišljenje da cijena izrade plana ili mapiranja nečega postaje skupo ali to niti je točno niti korisno. U slučaju Safecast znali smo da moramo prikupiti podatke, znali smo da želimo objaviti te podatke, i umjesto da pokušavamo smisliti točan plan, prvo smo rekli, oh, nabavimo Geigerove brojače. Oh, ponestalo ih je. Izradimo ih. Nema dovoljno senzora. Dobro, tada možemo napraviti mobilni Geigerov brojač Možemo se voziti uokolo. Možemo skupiti volontere. Nemamo dovoljno novca. Skupimo ga na Kickstarteru. Nismo mogli isplanirati sve ovo ali samim time što smo znali gdje želimo stići, na kraju smo i stigli tamo, meni je ovo vrlo slično agilnom razvoju softwarea, i ova ideja usmjerenosti je vrlo važna.
So I think the good news is that even though the world is extremely complex, what you need to do is very simple. I think it's about stopping this notion that you need to plan everything, you need to stock everything, and you need to be so prepared, and focus on being connected, always learning, fully aware, and super present.
Dobra vijest je da unatoč tome što je svijet krajnje složen, ono što trebate je vrlo jednostavno. Mislim da se treba zaustaviti ovo vjerovanje da je potrebno sve isplanirati, da je potrebno biti opskrbljen svim, i da je potrebno biti toliko pripremljen. Umjesto toga treba se fokusirati na umrežavanje, na stalno učenje, i da budete potpuno svjesni i super-prisutni.
So I don't like the word "futurist." I think we should be now-ists, like we are right now.
Tako da ne volim riječ "futurist". Mislim da bismo svi trebali biti sadašnjisti kao što smo to upravo sada.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)