We live on a human-dominated planet, putting unprecedented pressure on the systems on Earth. This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you, it's also part of the good news. We're the first generation -- thanks to science -- to be informed that we may be undermining the stability and the ability of planet Earth to support human development as we know it. It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing are so large, that business as usual is not an option. In fact, we're in a phase where transformative change is necessary, which opens the window for innovation, for new ideas and new paradigms. This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity in the global phase of sustainability.
Živimo na planeti kojom dominira čovek, vršeći nečuven pritisak na sisteme na Zemlji. Ovo su loše vesti, ali možda začuđujuće, ovo su delom i dobre vesti. Mi smo prva generacija koja zahvaljujući nauci zna da možda potkopava stabilnost i sposobnost planete Zemlje u cilju podupiranja ljudskog razvoja kakvog danas poznajemo. Ovo su takođe dobre vesti, jer su planetarni rizici sa kojima se suočavamo toliko veliki, da ustaljeni načini poslovanja nisu opcija. Zapravo, nalazimo se u fazi gde je neophodna transformacija, koja otvara prostor za inovacije, za nove ideje i nove modele. Ovo je naučno putovanje sa izazovima koje čovečanstvo sreće u globalnoj fazi održivosti.
On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves, a good friend, a stakeholder, who's always absent when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues, a stakeholder who refuses to compromise -- planet Earth. So I thought I'd bring her with me today on stage, to have her as a witness of a remarkable journey, which humbly reminds us of the period of grace we've had over the past 10,000 years. This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years. It's a very important period -- it's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet. We've had the same, roughly, abilities that developed civilizations as we know it. This is the environmental conditions on the planet.
Na ovom putovanju, voleo bih da vas odvojim od vas samih, od dobrog prijatelja, od deoničara, koji su uvek odsutni kada se suočavamo sa pregovorima o problemima životne sredine, deoničar, koji odbija da se nagodi -- planeta Zemlja Mislio sam da ću je poneti sa sobom na binu, da bi mi bila svedok neobičnog putovanja, koje nas skromno podseća na period gracioznosti koji smo imali tokom proteklih 10.000 godina. Ovo su uslovi života na planeti tokom posledjih 100.000 godina. To je veoma važan period -- to je otprilike polovina vremena kada smo u potpunosti bili savremeni ljudi na planeti. Imali smo skoro iste sposobnosti koje su razvile civilizacije kakve poznajemo danas. Ovo su uslovi životne sredine na planeti.
Here, used as a proxy, temperature variability. It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis, we leave Africa, we colonize Australia in another crisis, 60,000 years back, we leave Asia for Europe in another crisis, 40,000 years back, and then we enter the remarkably stable Holocene phase, the only period in the whole history of the planet, that we know of, that can support human development. A thousand years into this period, we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns. We go from a couple of million people to the seven billion people we are today. The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture, we domesticate animals and plants. You have the Roman, the Greek and the story as you know it. The only phase, as we know it that can support humanity.
Ovo su temperaturne razlike koje se koriste kao primer. Bila je to skakutava vožnja. 80.000 godina unazad u krizi, napustili smo Afriku, kolonzovali Australiju u narednoj krizi, 60.000 godina unazad, napustili smo Aziju zbog Evrope u još jednoj krizi, 40.000 godina unazad, a onda smo ušli u izrazito stabilno razdoblje Holocena, jedini period u čitavoj istoriji planete, za koji znamo da može da podrži ljudski razvoj. Hiljadama godina unutar ovog perioda, napuštali smo naše navike lova i sakupljanja plodova. Došli smo od nekoliko miliona ljudi do sedam milijardi, koliko nas ima danas. Kultura Mesopotamije: izumeli smo zemljoradnju, pripitomili životinje i biljke. Imate Rimljane i Grke i priču koju već znate. Jedina era, kao što znamo koja može podupreti čovečanstvo.
The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze on this poor planet, a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze, has population growth of course. Now, this is not only about numbers; this is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well. The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet have been caused by the rich minority, the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon in the mid-18th century. The majority of the planet, aspiring for development, having the right for development, are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle, a momentous pressure.
Nevolja je u tome što četvorostruko više cedimo ovu jadnu planetu, četvorostruko više cedimo, što je, sa svojim prvim ceđenjem naravno imalo za rezultat rast populacije. E sad, ne radi se samo o brojevima; niti se radi o činjenici da je nas sedam milijardi ljudi počinjeno za devet milijardi ljudi, takođe se radi o problemu pravičnosti. Većina uticaja na životnu sredinu na planeti izazvana je bogatom manjinom, 20 procenata onih koji su se okoristili na početku 18. veka. Većina planete, težeći ka razvoju, imajući pravo na razvoj, je u velikoj težnji za neodrživim životnim stilom, to je trenutni pritisak.
The second pressure on the planet is, of course the climate agenda -- the big issue -- where the policy interpretation of science is that it would be enough to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm to avoid average temperatures exceeding two degrees, to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, holding six meters -- level rising, the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet, holding another seven meters -- sea level rising. Now, you would have wished the climate pressure to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet, but unfortunately, the third pressure is the ecosystem decline. Never have we seen, in the past 50 years, such a sharp decline of ecosystem functions and services on the planet, one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term, in our forests, land and biodiversity.
Drugi pritisak na planetu je, naravno klimatska agenda - veliki problem -- gde se politika svodi na to da bi bilo dovoljno 450 ppm (jedinica koncentracije) za ublažavanje efekata staklene bašte, da bi se izbeglo da se prosečne temperature povise za dva stepena; da bi se izbegli rizici za moguću destabilizaciju zapadno antarktičkog ledenog štita, čija je trenutna debljina šest metara, a nivo raste; rizik od destabilizacije ledenog štita na Grenlandu, koji sadrži još sedam metara -- nivo mora raste. Zaželeli biste da pritisak klime pogodi planetu koja je jaka i otporna, ali na žalost, treći pritisak je smanjenje ekosistema. Nikada nismo videli, u poslednjih 50 godina, tako oštar pad funkcija i usluga ekosistema na planeti, kao što je dugoročna sposobnost regulisanja klime, u našim šumama, u zemlji i biološke raznolikosti.
The forth pressure is surprise, the notion and the evidence that we need to abandon our old paradigm, that ecosystems behave linearly, predictably, controllably in our -- so to say -- linear systems, and that in fact, surprise is universal, as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly and often irreversibly. This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet of momentous scale. We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era -- the Anthropocene, where humans are the predominant driver of change at a planetary level.
Četvrti pritisak je iznenađenje, ideja i dokaz da moramo napustiti naše stare modele u kojima se ekosistemi ponašaju linearno, predvidivo, kontrolisano u našim -- da tako kažemo -- linearnim sistemima i da je zapravo, iznenađenje univerzalno, kako se sistemi menjaju vrlo ubrzano, iznenadno i često puta nepovratno. Ovo, dragi prijatelji, predstavlja pritisak čoveka na planetu u značajnom obimu. Možda smo, zapravo, ušli u novo geološko razdoblje Antropocen, gde su ljudi pretežni nosioci promena na nivou planete.
Now, as a scientist, what's the evidence for this? Well, the evidence is, unfortunately, ample. It's not only carbon dioxide that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change. You can take virtually any parameter that matters for human well-being -- nitrous oxide, methane, deforestation, overfishing land degredation, loss of species -- they all show the same pattern over the past 200 years. Simultaneously, they branch off in the mid-50s, 10 years after the Second World War, showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise starts in the mid-50s. You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level. And I can tell you, you enter the disciplinary research in each of these, you find something remarkably important, the conclusion that we may have come to the point where we have to bend the curves, that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade in the history humanity on the planet, the decade when we have to bend the curves.
Pitam se kao naučnik, koji je dokaz za to? Pa, dokaz je, na žalost, rasprostranjen. To nije samo ugljen dioksid čija ubrzana promena ima oblik hokejaškog štapa. Zapravo možete uzeti bilo koji pokazatelj važan za dobro čoveka -- azot-oksid, metan, krčenje šuma, povećani izlov ribe degradacija tla, nestanak vrsta -- svi oni pokazuju isti šablon u poslednjih 200 godina. Istovremeno, račvaju se sredinom 50-ih godina, 10 godina posle Drugog svetskog rata, jasno pokazujući da je značajno ubrzanje ljudskih inicijativa započelo sredinom 50-ih. Vidite, po prvi put, otisak na globalnom nivou. I mogu vam reći, ako ulazite u disciplinarno istraživanje svakog od ovih, naći ćete nešto vrlo važno; zaključak da smo možda došli do tačke gde moramo saviti krivu, da smo možda ušli u najizazovniju i najuzbudljiviju deceniju u istoriji čovečanstva na planeti, deceniju gde moramo u stvari saviti krive.
Now, as if this was not enough -- to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet -- we also have to recognize the fact that systems do have multiple stable states, separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram, where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system. Now, the system may gradually -- under pressure of climate change, erosion, biodiversity loss -- lose the depth of the cup, the resilience, but appear to be healthy and appear to suddenly, under a threshold, be tipping over. Upff. Sorry. Changing state and literally ending up in an undesired situation, where new biophysical logic takes over, new species take over, and the system gets locked.
Ako ovo nije dovoljno -- da prosto savijemo krive i razumemo ubrzani pritisak na planetu -- takođe trebamo prepoznati činjenicu da sistemi imaju višestruka stabilna stanja, razdvojena pragovima -- ilustracija lopte i dijagrama u obliku kupe gde je dubina kupe otpornost sistema. Sistem može postepeno -- pod pritiskom klimatskih promena, erozije, gubitka biološke raznolikosti gubiti dubinu kupe, otpornost, ali izgledati da je zdrav i da se iznenada, ispod praga, menja. Uh. Oprostite. Menjajući stanje i doslovno završavajući u neželjenoj situaciji, gde nova logika biofizike, nove vrste preuzimaju stvar, a sistem ostaje zaključan.
Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems. Biodiverse, low-nutrient, hard coral systems under multiple pressures of overfishing, unsustainable tourism, climate change. A trigger and the system tips over, loses its resilience, soft corals take over, and we get undesired systems that cannot support economic and social development. The Arctic -- a beautiful system -- a regulating biome at the planetary level, taking the knock after knock on climate change, appearing to be in a good state. No scientist could predict that in 2007, suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold. The system suddenly, very surprisingly, loses 30 to 40 percent of its summer ice cover. And the drama is, of course, that when the system does this, the logic may change. It may get locked in an undesired state, because it changes color, absorbs more energy, and the system may get stuck. In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity that we are in a precarious situation. As a sideline, you know that the only red flag that popped up here was a submarine from an unnamed country that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic to be able to control the oil resources.
Imamo li dokaz za to? Da, sistemi koralnih grebena. Biološki raznovrsni, nisko-hranljivi, tvrdi koralni sistemi pod višestrukim pritiscima izlovljavanja ribe, neodrživog turizma, klimatske promene. Jedan okidač i sistem se preokreće, gubeći svoju otpornost, meki korali preuzimaju teritoriju, tada dobijamo neželjene sisteme koji ne mogu podržati ekonomski i društveni razvoj. Arktik -- prelep sistem -- regulišući biom na nivou planete, dobijajući udarac za udarcem pri klimatskoj promeni, čini se da je u doborm stanju. Ni jedan naučnik nije mogao predvideti šta će 2007. iznenada, možda preći prag. Sistem, odjednom, iznenada gubi 30 do 40 procenata letnjeg ledenog pokrivača. Drama je, naravno, u tome kada se ovo dogodi, logika može biti promenjena. Sistem može biti zaključan u neželjenom stanju jer menja boju, absorbuje više energije, i tako može zaglaviti. Što se mene tiče, najveće upozorenje za čovečanstvo je da smo u neizvesnoj situaciji. Kao sporedna stvar, znate da jedino upozorenje koje se ovde pojavljuje jeste podmornica iz neimenovane države koja je postavila crvenu zastavu na dnu Arktika da bi mogla da kontroliše naftne resurse.
Now, if we have evidence, which we now have, that wetlands, forests, [unclear] monsoon system, the rainforests, behave in this nonlinear way. 30 or so scientists around the world gathered and asked a question for the first time, "Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?" So we have to ask ourselves: are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state? Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation where we're coming too close to thresholds that could lead to deleterious and very undesired, if now catastrophic, change for human development? You know, you don't want to stand there. In fact, you're not even allowed to stand where this gentleman is standing, at the foaming, slippery waters at the threshold. In fact, there's a fence quite upstream of this threshold, beyond which you are in a danger zone. And this is the new paradigm, which we gathered two, three years back, recognizing that our old paradigm of just analyzing and pushing and predicting parameters into the future, aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past.
Ukoliko imamo dokaz, koji sada imamo, da se močvare, šume, monsuni, kišne šume, ponašaju na nelinearan način. Oko 30 naučnika širom sveta se okupilo i upitalo po prvi put, "Da li moramo da stavimo planetu u lonac?" Tada se moramo zapitati: da li pretimo ovom retkom stanju stabilnosti Holocena? Da li se u stvari stavljamo u situaciju gde vrlo brzo dolazimo do praga koji može voditi štetnoj i neželjenoj, sada već katastralnoj promeni zarad ljudskog razvoja? Znate, ne biste želeli da se nađete na ovom mestu. Zapravo, nije vam čak ni dozvoljeno da se nađete na mestu gde stoji ovaj gospodin, na penušavom, klizavom vodopadu, na ivici. U stvari, postoji ograda prilično udaljena od ove ivice, iza koje se nalazite u zoni opasnosti. Tako da je ovo novi model koji smo prikupili dve, tri godine unazad prepoznajući da naš stari model samo analiziranja, predviđanja i gurnanja parametara u budućnost, ciljajući na minimiziranje uticaja na okruženje -- je deo prošlosti.
Now we to ask ourselves: which are the large environmental processes that we have to be stewards of to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene? And could we even, thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science, identify the thresholds, the points where we may expect nonlinear change? And could we even define a planetary boundary, a fence, within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity? This work, which was published in "Nature," late 2009, after a number of years of analysis, led to the final proposition that we can only find nine planetary boundaries with which, under active stewardship, would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space. These include, of course, climate. It may surprise you that it's not only climate. But it shows that we are interconnected, among many systems on the planet, with the three big systems, climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification being the three big systems, where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds in the paleo-record of the history of the planet.
Sada se zapitajmo: koji su to veliki procesi prirodne sredine kojima moramo biti sluge kako bismo ostali bezbedni u Holocenu? I možemo li uopšte, zahvaljujući velikim unapređenjima nauke o Zemljinim sistemima, identifikovati pragove, tačke u kojima možemo očekivati nelinearne promene? I možemo li uopšte definisati planetarne granice, ogradu, u okviru koje imamo siguran prostor za funkcionisanje čovečanstva? Ovaj rad, objavljen u žurnalu "Priroda", krajem 2009. godine, posle brojnih godina analiza, doveo je do finalnog predloga da jedino možemo naći devet planetarnih veza sa kojima bi, aktivno im služeći, dopustili sebi da imamo siguran prostor za funkcionisanje. Ove veze podrazumevaju, naravno, klimu. Može vas iznenaditi da to nije samo klima. Već da smo u međusobno povezani, sa mnogim sistemima na planeti, zajedno sa tri velika sistema, sa klimatskom promenom, trošenjem ozona u stratosferi i ukiseljavanjem okeana, kao tri sistema, gde nauka svedoči o granicama velikih razmera u paleo-zapisu istorije planete.
But we also include, what we call, the slow variables, the systems that, under the hood, regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet -- the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet, land use change, rate of biodiversity loss, freshwater use, functions which regulate biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration, diversity. And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify -- air pollution, including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates, but also chemical pollution. Together, these form an integrated whole for guiding human development in the Anthropocene, understanding that the planet is a complex self-regulating system. In fact, most evidence indicates that these nine may behave as three Musketeers, "One for all. All for one." You degrade forests, you go beyond the boundary on land, you undermine the ability of the climate system to stay stable. The drama here is, in fact, that it may show that the climate challenge is the easy one, if you consider the whole challenge of sustainable development.
Ali takođe podrazumevamo, ono što zovemo spore promenljive, sistemi koji, prikriveno, regulišu i amortizuju kapacitet otpornosti planete -- umešanost azotnih i fosfornih ciklusa na planeti, upotrebu zemljišta, gubitak biološke raznovrsnosti, upotrebu sveže vode, funkcije koje regulišu biomasu na planeti, odvajanje ugljenika, raznolikost. Tada imamo dva pokazatelja koje nismo u stanju da kvantifikujemo -- zagađenje vazduha, uključujući vrele gasove i zagađenje sulfatima i nitratima, kao i hemijsko zagađenje. Zajedno, ovi pokazatelji čine integrisanu celinu za vođenje ljudskog razvoja u Antropocenu, shvatajući da je planeta kompleksan sistem sa povratnom spregom. Zapravo, većina dokaza ukazuje na to da se ovih devet veza mogu ponašati kao tri Musketara, "Svi za jednog. Jedan za sve". Degradirate šume, idete iza granica zemlje, potkopavate sposobnost klimatskog sistema da ostane stabilan. Nevolja je u tome, zapravo, što to može pokazati da su klimatski izazovi onaj lagani deo, ako se uzme u obzir celokupni izazov održivog razvoja.
Now this is the Big Bang equivalent then of human development within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries. What you see here in black line is the safe operating space, the quantified boundaries, as suggested by this analysis. The yellow dot in the middle here is our starting point, the pre-industrial point, where we're very safely in the safe operating space. In the '50s, we start branching out. In the '60s already, through the green revolution and the Haber-Bosch process of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere -- you know, human's today take out more nitrogen from the atmosphere than the whole biosphere does naturally as a whole. We don't transgress the climate boundary until the early '90s, actually, right after Rio. And today, we are in a situation where we estimate that we've transgressed three boundaries, the rate of biodiversity loss, which is the sixth extinction period in the history of humanity -- one of them being the extinctions of the dinosaurs -- nitrogen and climate change. But we still have some degrees of freedom on the others, but we are approaching fast on land, water, phosphorus and oceans. But this gives a new paradigm to guide humanity, to put the light on our, so far overpowered industrial vehicle, which operates as if we're only on a dark, straight highway.
Ovo je Veliki prasak jednak ljudskom razvoju unutar bezbednog prostora planetarnih granica. Ono što vidite unutar crne linije je bezbedan prostor funkcionisanja, kvantifikovane granice, kao što preporučuju analize. Žuta tačka u sredini je naša početna tačka, pre-industrijska tačka, gde smo veoma bezbedni u prostoru funkcionisanja. U 50-im smo počeli da se granamo. Već u 60-im, kroz zelenu revoluciju i Haber-Bošov postupak za dobijanje azota iz atmosfere -- znate, ljudi danas uzimaju više azota iz atmosfere nego što čitava biosfera to radi prirodnim putem. Nismo prekoračili granice klime sve do ranih 90-ih, zapravo, odmah posle Rija. Danas se nalazimo u situaciji gde procenjujemo da smo prekoračili tri granice, stopu gubitka biološke raznovrsnosti, koja je period šestog iskorenjivanja u istoriji čovečanstva -- jedan njih je iskorenjivanje dinosaurusa -- azot i klimatske promene. I dalje imamo neke stepene slobode u odnosu na druge, ali se isto tako brzo približavamo zemlji, vodi, fosforu i okeanima. Ovo nam daje novi primer za vođenje čovečanstva, u osvetljavanju našeg, do sad potisnutog, industrijskog vozila, koje funkcioniše kao da smo sami na mračnom, ravnom autoputu.
Now the question then is: how gloomy is this? Is then sustainable development utopia? Well, there's no science to suggest. In fact, there is ample science to indicate that we can do this transformative change, that we have the ability to now move into a new innovative, a transformative gear, across scales. The drama is, of course, is that 200 countries on this planet have to simultaneously start moving in the same direction. But it changes fundamentally our governance and management paradigm, from the current linear, command and control thinking, looking at efficiencies and optimization towards a much more flexible, a much more adaptive approach, where we recognize that redundancy, both in social and environmental systems, is key to be able to deal with a turbulent era of global change. We have to invest in persistence, in the ability of social systems and ecological systems to withstand shocks and still remain in that desired cup. We have to invest in transformations capability, moving from crisis into innovation and the ability to rise after a crisis, and of course to adapt to unavoidable change. This is a new paradigm. We're not doing that at any scale on governance.
Pitanje je: koliko je ovo sumorno? Da li postoji utopija održivog razvoja? Pa, nema nauke da to predloži. Zapravo, postoji opširna nauka koja ukazuje da možemo napraviti ove promene, da imamo sposobnosti da se sada pokrenemo ka novoj, inovativnoj transformaciji, preko različitih nivoa. Problem je, naravno, u tome što 200 zemalja na ovoj planeti treba istovremeno da se pokrene u istom smeru. Ali to fundamentalno menja našu direkciju i upravljanje modelom, od sadašnje, linearne, dominacije i kontrole mišljenja, tragajući za efikasnošću i optimizacijom ka fleksibilnijem i prilagodljivijem pristupu, gde prepoznajemo da je višak u socijalnim i ambijentalnim sistemima, ključ da se izborimo sa turbulentnim razdobljem globalne promene. Moramo da uložimo u doslednost, u sposobnost socijalnih i ekoloških sistema da bismo izdržali napade i ostali u toj željenoj kupi. Moramo da investiramo u sposobnost transformacije, pomerajući se od krize ka inovaciji i sposobnosti za oporavljanje posle krize, i naravno da se prilagodimo neizbežnim promenama. Ovo je novi model. Ne radimo ovo na bilo kojem nivou uprave.
But is it happening anywhere? Do we have any examples of success on this mind shift being applied at the local level? Well, yes, in fact we do and the list can start becoming longer and longer. There's good news here, for example, from Latin America, where plow-based farming systems of the '50s and '60s led farming basically to a dead-end, with lower and lower yields, degrading the organic matter and fundamental problems at the livelihood levels in Paraguay, Uruguay and a number of countries, Brazil, leading to innovation and entrepreneurship among farmers in partnership with scientists into an agricultural revolution of zero tillage systems combined with mulch farming with locally adapted technologies, which today, for example, in some countries, have led to a tremendous increase in area under mulch, zero till farming which, not only produces more food, but also sequesters carbon.
Ali, da li je situacija svuda ista? Da li imamo bilo kakve primere uspeha u promeni razmišljanja koji su primenjeni na lokalnom nivou? Pa, da, zapravo imamo, a lista može početi da biva sve duža i duža. Postoje dobre vesti, na primer, iz Latinske Amerike, gde su farme, obrađivane plugom, iz 50-ih i 60-ih, vodile poljoprivredu u ćorsokak, sa sve manjom dobiti, degradirajući organsku materiju i osnovne probleme izdržavanja u Paragvaju, Urugvaju i brojnim zemljama, Brazilu, vodeći ka inovaciji i preduzetništvu između farmera u partnerstvu sa naučnicima, do poljoprivredne revolucije sistema bez oranja koja kombinovanog sa zagrtanjem biljaka i sa lokalno prilagođenim tehnologijama koje su danas na primer, u nekim zemljama, dovele do golemog povećanja; sve to u oblasti zagrtanja biljaka i bez oranja što, ne samo da proizvodi više hrane, nego i izdvaja ugljenik.
The Australian Great Barrier Reef is another success story. Under the realization from tourist operators, fishermen, the Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority and scientists that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed under the current governance regime. Global change, beautification rack culture, overfishing and unsustainable tourism, all together placing this system in the realization of crisis. But the window of opportunity was innovation and new mindset, which today has led to a completely new governance strategy to build resilience, acknowledge redundancy and invest in the whole system as an integrated whole, and then allow for much more redundancy in the system.
Australijski Veliki koralni greben predstavlja još jednu uspešnu priču. U okviru realizacije od strane turističkih operatera, ribolovaca, vlasti Velikog koralnog grebena i naučnika, Veliki koralni greben je osuđen na propast pod trenutnim režimom upravljanja. Globalne promene, kultura iscrpljujućeg ulepšavanja, prekomerni ribolov i neodrživi turizam, svi zajedno stavljaju ovaj sistem u položaj realizacije krize. Ali prostor za mogućnosti su inovacije i nov način razmišljanja, koji je danas doveo do potpuno nove strategije upravljanja radi izgradnje otpornsti, viška znanja i ulaganja u ceo sistem kao u integrisanu celinu i omogućavanja mnogo više viška u sistemu.
Sweden, the country I come from, has other examples, where wetlands in southern Sweden were seen as -- as in many countries -- as flood-prone polluted nuisance in the peri-urban regions. But again, a crisis, new partnerships, actors locally, transforming these into a key component of sustainable urban planning. So crisis leading into opportunities.
Švedska, zemlja iz koje dolazim, ima druge primere, gde su močvare na jugu Švedske prepoznate -- kao i u mnogim državama -- kao poplavljena, zagađena neprijatnost u prigradskim oblastima. Ali opet, krize, nova partnerstva, lokalni akteri, pretvaraju to u ključnu komponentu održivog, urbanog planiranja. Tako da kriza vodi u nove mogućnosti.
Now, what about the future? Well, the future, of course, has one massive challenge, which is feeding a world of nine billion people. We need nothing less than a new green revolution, and the planet boundaries shows that agriculture has to go from a source of greenhouse gases to a sink. It has to basically do this on current land. We cannot expand anymore, because it erodes the planetary boundaries. We cannot continue consuming water as we do today, with 25 percent of world rivers not even reaching the ocean. And we need a transformation. Well, interestingly, and based on my work and others in Africa, for example, we've shown that even the most vulnerable small-scale rainfall farming systems, with innovations and supplementary irrigation to bridge dry spells and droughts, sustainable sanitation systems to close the loop on nutrients from toilets back to farmers' fields, and innovations in tillage systems, we can triple, quadruple, yield levels on current land.
A šta sa budućnošću? Pa, budućnost, naravno, ima jedan ogroman izazov, koji snabdeva svet od devet milijardi ljudi. Ne treba nam ništa manje od nove zelene revolucije, a granice planete pokazuju da poljoprivreda mora da se promeni od izvora do slivnika štetnih gasova. To mora da se desi na postojećoj zemlji. Ne možemo se više širiti, jer to uništava planetarne granice. Ne možemo nastaviti da konzumiramo vodu kao što to činimo danas, sa 25 procenata svetskih reka koje čak ni ne stignu do okeana. Potrebna nam je transformacija. Zanimljivo, i zasnovano na mom radu i ostalima u Africi, na primer, pokazali smo da čak i sa malim sistemima poljoprivrednog uzgoja, ugroženih sušom, sa inovacijama i dodatnim navodnjavanjem radi premošćavanja sušnog perioda, kao i održivim sanitarijama za ponovno vraćanje hranljivih materija iz klozetskih šolja nazad na polja farmera i inovacijama u sistemima obrade zemlje, možemo utrostručiti, učetvorostručiti prinose na nivou sadašnjeg zemljišta.
Elinor Ostrom, the latest Nobel laureate of economics, clearly shows empirically across the world that we can govern the commons if we invest in trust, local, action-based partnerships and cross-scale institutional innovations, where local actors, together, can deal with the global commons at a large scale. But even on the hard policy area we have innovations. We know that we have to move from our fossil dependence very quickly into a low-carbon economy in record time. And what shall we do? Everybody talks about carbon taxes -- it won't work -- emission schemes, but for example, one policy measure, feed-in tariffs on the energy system, which is already applied, from China doing it on offshore wind systems, all the way to the U.S. where you give the guaranteed price for investment in renewable energy, but you can subsidize electricity to poor people. You get people out of poverty. You solve the climate issue with regards to the energy sector, while at the same time, stimulating innovation -- examples of things that can be out scaled quickly at the planetary level.
Elinor Ostrom, najnoviji dobitnik Nobelove nagrade za ekonomiju, jasno pokazuje, empirijski, širom sveta, da možemo rukovoditi društvenim dobrom ukoliko investiramo u poverenje, lokalna partnerstva zasnovana na aktivnostima i institucionalne inovacije, gde se lokalni akteri, zajedno, mogu izboriti sa globalnim društvenim dobrima u velikoj razmeri. Ali čak i u oblasti teške politike mi imamo inovacije. Znamo da se moramo odmaći od zavisnosti od fosilnih goriva vrlo brzo ka ekonomiji niske emisije i to u rekordnom vremenu. I šta ćemo da radimo? Svi govore o porezu na ugljenik -- to neće funkcionisati -- planovi emisije, ali na primer, jedna politička mera, tarifa o energetskom sistemu, koja je već primenjena, u Kini to rade pomoću vetrenjača postavljenih u moru, sve do SAD-a gde dobijate garantovanu cenu za investiranje u obnovljive izvore energije, ali možete subvencionisati struju siromašnima. Vi vadite ljude iz siromaštva. Rešavate klimatske probleme sa osvrtom na energestski sektor, dok istovremeno, stimulišete inovaciju -- primeri stvari koje se brzo mogu prilagoditi planetarnom nivou.
So there is -- no doubt -- opportunity here, and we can list many, many examples of transformative opportunities around the planet. The key though in all of these, the red thread, is the shift in mindset, moving away from a situation where we simply are pushing ourselves into a dark future, where we instead backcast our future, and we say, "What is the playing field on the planet? What are the planetary boundaries within which we can safely operate?" and then backtrack innovations within that. But of course, the drama is, it clearly shows that incremental change is not an option.
Tako da ovde -- nema sumnje -- postoji prilika, i možemo navesti mnogo, mnogo primera transformativnih prilika širom planete. Ključ u svemu ovome, crvena nit, je pomak u načinu razmišljanja, udaljavanje od situacije gde prosto guramo sebe u mračnu budućnost, gde umesto da obrnemo našu budućnost, mi kažemo, "Šta je teren na planeti? Koje su planetarne granice u okviru kojih funkcionišemo bezbedno?" Te se onda vratimo na inovacije u okviru toga. Ali naravno, nevolja je, što se jasno pokazuje da inkrementalna promena nije opcija.
So, there is scientific evidence. They sort of say the harsh news, that we are facing the largest transformative development since the industrialization. In fact, what we have to do over the next 40 years is much more dramatic and more exciting than what we did when we moved into the situation we're in today. Now, science indicates that, yes, we can achieve a prosperous future within the safe operating space, if we move simultaneously, collaborating on a global level, from local to global scale, in transformative options, which build resilience on a finite planet.
Postoji naučni dokaz. Oni kažu da je neka vrsta surove vesti, da se suočavamo sa najvećim transformativnim razvojem još od industrijalizacije. Zapravo, ono što treba da radimo sledećih 40 godina je mnogo dramatičnije i uzbudljivije od onoga što smo radili kad smo se našli u situaciji u kojoj smo danas. Nauka nagoveštava da možemo postići naprednu budućnost u okviru bezbednog prostora za funkconisanje, ako krenemo istvoremeno, sarađujući na globalnom nivou, od lokalnih do globalnih razmera, u promenljivim opcijama, koje grade otpornost na konačnoj planeti.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
Aplauz