So, my question: are we alone?
我的問題是 我們是唯一的嗎?
The story of humans is the story of ideas -- scientific ideas that shine light into dark corners, ideas that we embrace rationally and irrationally, ideas for which we've lived and died and killed and been killed, ideas that have vanished in history, and ideas that have been set in dogma. It's a story of nations, of ideologies, of territories, and of conflicts among them. But, every moment of human history, from the Stone Age to the Information Age, from Sumer and Babylon to the iPod and celebrity gossip, they've all been carried out -- every book that you've read, every poem, every laugh, every tear -- they've all happened here. Here. Here. Here. (Laughter)
人類的歷史就是"理念"的歷史 將啟蒙之光照亮黑暗角落的科學理念, 被我們冷靜或狂熱擁護的理念, 有著我們為之而生存、死亡、殺戮,甚至犧牲的理念, 有在歷史這條長河之中消逝的理念, 也有被列入教條的理念。 這是關於國家 關於意識形態, 關於領域上的, 以及其中種種衝突的歷史之中。 但是,人類歷史的任何片刻, 從石器時代到資訊時代, 從蘇美爾到巴比倫再從iPod到名流八卦, 全部都是實現在 所有你所閱讀的書卷之中, 詩歌中,所有的歡笑及淚水中, 全部都發生在這裡, 這裡, 這裡, 這裡。 (笑聲)
Perspective is a very powerful thing. Perspectives can change. Perspectives can be altered. From my perspective, we live on a fragile island of life, in a universe of possibilities. For many millennia, humans have been on a journey to find answers, answers to questions about naturalism and transcendence, about who we are and why we are, and of course, who else might be out there. Is it really just us? Are we alone in this vast universe of energy and matter and chemistry and physics? Well, if we are, it's an awful waste of space. (Laughter) But, what if we're not?
觀念是一種非常強大的東西。 觀點會變 觀點也可以被改變。 從我的觀點來看,我們是生存在這個充滿可能性的宇宙之中 一個微細的生命之島上。 數千年來,人類始終汲汲營營於追尋答案 關於自然主義與超自然體驗之疑問的答案, 關於我們是誰以及為甚麼我們會出現在這裡, 當然還包括,是否在別的地方可能還存在著生命之類的問題的答案。 真的是只有我們嗎? 是否我們孤單地存在於這個充滿能量與物質 化學元素與物理規律的浩翰宇宙之中。 如果真的是這樣,那真的是太浪費空間了。 (笑聲) 但是,如果這不是真的呢?
What if, out there, others are asking and answering similar questions? What if they look up at the night sky, at the same stars, but from the opposite side? Would the discovery of an older cultural civilization out there inspire us to find ways to survive our increasingly uncertain technological adolescence? Might it be the discovery of a distant civilization and our common cosmic origins that finally drives home the message of the bond among all humans? Whether we're born in San Francisco, or Sudan, or close to the heart of the Milky Way galaxy, we are the products of a billion-year lineage of wandering stardust. We, all of us, are what happens when a primordial mixture of hydrogen and helium evolves for so long that it begins to ask where it came from. Fifty years ago, the journey to find answers took a different path and SETI, the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence, began.
如果自其他地方,有其他人在追問,並試圖回答類似的問題? 如果他們也仰望星空,凝視著同一顆星辰, 但是他們是在宇宙的另一邊呢? 對更久遠文明的觀察是否 會啟發我們尋找到讓我們能順利渡過 這越發不安的科技啟蒙階段的方法? 有沒有可能因此發現遙遠的文明 和我們的共同的起源 而最終帶回了揭示全人類內在聯系的訊息? 無論是出生在舊金山還是蘇丹 亦或是靠近銀河系中心 我們都是彌漫在宇宙中的星層十億年發展的產物 我們所有的人 就是由最初的氫氦混合物進化而來 經過了如此慢長的進化之後,我們開始思考自己是從何而來 五十年前 尋找答案的旅程多了另一條途徑 SETI,尋找外太空星球智慧生命計劃 啟動了
So, what exactly is SETI? Well, SETI uses the tools of astronomy to try and find evidence of someone else's technology out there. Our own technologies are visible over interstellar distances, and theirs might be as well. It might be that some massive network of communications, or some shield against asteroidal impact, or some huge astro-engineering project that we can't even begin to conceive of, could generate signals at radio or optical frequencies that a determined program of searching might detect. For millennia, we've actually turned to the priests and the philosophers for guidance and instruction on this question of whether there's intelligent life out there. Now, we can use the tools of the 21st century to try and observe what is, rather than ask what should be, believed.
SETI究竟是甚麼? SETI是嘗試使用天文學工具 來尋找其他擁有科技的文明蹤跡 我們自己的科技是在星際之間是可以被察覺的 別人也同樣 它可能是個巨大的通信網路 或是防禦天體碰撞的護罩 甚至超出我們想像力的宏偉的空間機械工程 產生出可能維持長久的搜計畫 偵測到的無線電信訊號或光學頻率 數千年來我們都依賴牧師和思想家 來指引和教導關於是否有其它文明的問題 今天我們能夠使用二十一世紀的工具來嘗試觀察 而不應該是猶豫著該相信甚麼
SETI doesn't presume the existence of extra terrestrial intelligence; it merely notes the possibility, if not the probability in this vast universe, which seems fairly uniform. The numbers suggest a universe of possibilities. Our sun is one of 400 billion stars in our galaxy, and we know that many other stars have planetary systems. We've discovered over 350 in the last 14 years, including the small planet, announced earlier this week, which has a radius just twice the size of the Earth. And, if even all of the planetary systems in our galaxy were devoid of life, there are still 100 billion other galaxies out there, altogether 10^22 stars. Now, I'm going to try a trick, and recreate an experiment from this morning. Remember, one billion? But, this time not one billion dollars, one billion stars. Alright, one billion stars. Now, up there, 20 feet above the stage, that's 10 trillion. Well, what about 10^22? Where's the line that marks that? That line would have to be 3.8 million miles above this stage. (Laughter) 16 times farther away than the moon, or four percent of the distance to the sun.
SETI並不預估外地文明的存在 它僅僅是提出可能性 或其存在這個廣闊宇宙中的機率,應該是平均的 這些數字展現出我們存在一個充滿可能性的宇宙之中 我們的太陽在銀河系中只是四千億顆恆星中的一顆 並且我們知道許多其它星球都有其行星系統 在過去的14年裡我們已經發現了超過350個這樣的星系了 包括上周所宣佈的小型行星 大小只有地球的兩倍 即使所有我們現知的行星系都不存在生命 另外還有1000多億星系 總共有10的22次方顆恆星 現在我來耍個小把戲,我將再展現今天早上所做的實驗 還記得嘛,十億 但是,這次不是十億美元,而是十億顆恆星 對,就是十億顆恒星 現在從這裡到離地面20公尺高的高度 就是十億的數量 那10的22次方是怎樣的? 這條邊界線會是在哪裡呢? 那條線一直要到離這個講臺的380公里遠的地方 (笑聲) 16倍於從這裡到月球的距離 或者4%從這裡到太陽的距離
So, there are many possibilities. (Laughter) And much of this vast universe, much more may be habitable than we once thought, as we study extremophiles on Earth -- organisms that can live in conditions totally inhospitable for us, in the hot, high pressure thermal vents at the bottom of the ocean, frozen in ice, in boiling battery acid, in the cooling waters of nuclear reactors. These extremophiles tell us that life may exist in many other environments.
所以一定是有很多可能性的 (笑聲) 在這個廣闊無礙的宇宙很多地方 比我們從前想像的更可能存在著生命 根據我們對地球上的嗜極生物所進行的研究 一些有機體能在我們完全不能棲息的環境中生存 比如處在深海海底或極熱高溫高壓的火山口 在封凍的冰層之間,在沸騰的電酸之中 甚至在核子反應堆的冷卻劑之中 這些嗜極端菌的存在表明了生命或許會出出現在許多其他的環境之中
But those environments are going to be widely spaced in this universe. Even our nearest star, the Sun -- its emissions suffer the tyranny of light speed. It takes a full eight minutes for its radiation to reach us. And the nearest star is 4.2 light years away, which means its light takes 4.2 years to get here. And the edge of our galaxy is 75,000 light years away, and the nearest galaxy to us, 2.5 million light years. That means any signal we detect would have started its journey a long time ago. And a signal would give us a glimpse of their past, not their present. Which is why Phil Morrison calls SETI, "the archaeology of the future." It tells us about their past, but detection of a signal tells us it's possible for us to have a long future.
但是這些環境在宇宙中非常的分散 即使離我們最近的恆星-太陽 它的輻射也不得不受光速的限制 需要整整8分鐘才能到達這裡 最近的恆星距離我們有4.2光年的距離 惡就意味著它所發出的光需要4.2年才能到達這邊 而我們星系的邊緣則有75000光年之遠 離我們最近的星系要250萬光年 這就是說任何我們能偵測到的信號都是很久很久以前就已經被發射出了 這樣的一個信號或許能讓我們一窺他們的過去 而不是現在 這就是為甚麼Phil Morrison稱SETI為"未來考古學" 它為我們講述了他們的過去 偵測到的信號也給予了我們對於一個長遠未來之可能性之信心
I think this is what David Deutsch meant in 2005, when he ended his Oxford TEDTalk by saying he had two principles he'd like to share for living, and he would like to carve them on stone tablets. The first is that problems are inevitable. The second is that problems are soluble. So, ultimately what's going to determine the success or failure of SETI is the longevity of technologies, and the mean distance between technologies in the cosmos -- distance over space and distance over time. If technologies don't last and persist, we will not succeed. And we're a very young technology in an old galaxy, and we don't yet know whether it's possible for technologies to persist.
我想這是David Deutsch在2005年所想表達的 當時他以他自己的 兩條生活原則來結束在牛津大學TED的演講 他認為是非常經典的 第一條是問題是不可避免的 第二條是問題是可以被解決的 最終能決定SETI成功與否的 是科技的長久存在 以及科技在宇宙中的平均距離- 在時間與空間中的距離 如果科技不能持續 我們就成功不了 在這個古老星系之中 我們的科技實屬幼嫩 我們也不知道科技是否能夠長存
So, up until now I've been talking to you about really large numbers. Let me talk about a relatively small number. And that's the length of time that the Earth was lifeless. Zircons that are mined in the Jack Hills of western Australia, zircons taken from the Jack Hills of western Australia tell us that within a few hundred million years of the origin of the planet there was abundant water and perhaps even life. So, our planet has spent the vast majority of its 4.56 billion year history developing life, not anticipating its emergence. Life happened very quickly, and that bodes well for the potential of life elsewhere in the cosmos.
到現在為止我跟您們說的都是非常大的數字 讓我來跟您們說些相對較小的數字 就是地球上沒有生命存在的時間的長度 如果我們考察一下澳洲西部的傑克山所開掘出來的鑽石 從傑克山所取出的鑽石的分析之中 發現自地球起源之後的幾百萬年間 有著豐富的水甚至生命 所以在我們的星球上這45.6億年中的大部份時間 都在培育生命 而不只是在期待生命的出現 生命出現的非常地快 這也預示了宇宙中其他星球上出現生命的潛力
And the other thing that one should take away from this chart is the very narrow range of time over which humans can claim to be the dominant intelligence on the planet. It's only the last few hundred thousand years modern humans have been pursuing technology and civilization. So, one needs a very deep appreciation of the diversity and incredible scale of life on this planet as the first step in preparing to make contact with life elsewhere in the cosmos.
還有一點應該從這圖表中去掉的 就是所謂人類在這個星球 能稱得上是擁有支配權的智能生物是非常短暫的 僅僅在最近的幾千年之中 現在人類才有出現對科技和文明的追求 一個種族需要對這個星球上 生物的多樣性以及驚人數量非常深刻的認知 方能準備與宇宙中其他的生命進行接觸
We are not the pinnacle of evolution. We are not the determined product of billions of years of evolutionary plotting and planning. We are one outcome of a continuing adaptational process. We are residents of one small planet in a corner of the Milky Way galaxy. And Homo sapiens are one small leaf on a very extensive Tree of Life, which is densely populated by organisms that have been honed for survival over millions of years. We misuse language, and talk about the "ascent" of man. We understand the scientific basis for the interrelatedness of life but our ego hasn't caught up yet. So this "ascent" of man, pinnacle of evolution, has got to go. It's a sense of privilege that the natural universe doesn't share.
我們不是處在進化的頂點 我們不是億萬年進化史之中 所精心設計的最終產物 我們是一個持續適應過程中的產物 我們是銀河系角落裡 一個小行星上的居民 智人只是有著 數百萬年歷史的 生命之樹上的 一片綠葉 我們常用詞不當 談論著"人的昇華" 我們雖理解物種關聯性的科學依據 但本身的自我意識卻還未成熟 所謂的"人的昇華","進化的巔峰" 必須要去除 這是自然宇宙所不認同的一種特權
Loren Eiseley has said, "One does not meet oneself until one catches the reflection from an eye other than human." One day that eye may be that of an intelligent alien, and the sooner we eschew our narrow view of evolution the sooner we can truly explore our ultimate origins and destinations.
勞倫艾斯利曾說過: 一個人在另一種生物的眼裡 會看見自己之前都不會知道的自己 某一天這雙眼可能屬於一個擁有智慧的外星人 我們越快拋棄對進化的狹礙眼光 就能越早開始真正地探索我們的起源與方向
We are a small part of the story of cosmic evolution, and we are going to be responsible for our continued participation in that story, and perhaps SETI will help as well. Occasionally, throughout history, this concept of this very large cosmic perspective comes to the surface, and as a result we see transformative and profound discoveries. So in 1543, Nicholas Copernicus published "The Revolutions of Heavenly Spheres," and by taking the Earth out of the center, and putting the sun in the center of the solar system, he opened our eyes to a much larger universe, of which we are just a small part. And that Copernican revolution continues today to influence science and philosophy and technology and theology.
我們是宇宙進化史的一小部份 並會為自己的持續參與負起相應的責任 或許SETI也會起它的作用 在這條歷史的長河之中,偶然之間 這宏偉的宇宙視角概念會浮出水面 而其結果就是我們所看見的具有強烈變革性及意味著深遠的表現 1543年,尼古拉斯哥白尼出版了<天體運行論> 通過去除地球中心論之後 將太陽放在了這個太陽系的中心 他為我們打開了視野而通向更大的宇宙 我們是屬於其中的一小部份 哥白尼的革命直到今天 還在持續地影響著科學、哲學、技術以及神學
So, in 1959, Giuseppe Coccone and Philip Morrison published the first SETI article in a refereed journal, and brought SETI into the scientific mainstream. And in 1960, Frank Drake conducted the first SETI observation looking at two stars, Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani, for about 150 hours. Now Drake did not discover extraterrestrial intelligence, but he learned a very valuable lesson from a passing aircraft, and that's that terrestrial technology can interfere with the search for extraterrestrial technology.
1956年Giuseppe Coccone 和Philip Morrison 在一篇期刊論文上發表了第一篇有關SETI的文章 並將SETI帶入了科學界的主流 在1960年,SETI的Frank Drake進行了第一次對兩顆恆星的觀測 對象是鯨魚座T星和波江座天苑四星 這場觀測大約進行了150小時 Drake並沒有發現外星文明 但他從一架飛過的飛機上得到了寶貴的經驗 那就是我們自己的科技會干涉到 對外星文明的搜索
We've been searching ever since, but it's impossible to overstate the magnitude of the search that remains. All of the concerted SETI efforts, over the last 40-some years, are equivalent to scooping a single glass of water from the oceans. And no one would decide that the ocean was without fish on the basis of one glass of water. The 21st century now allows us to build bigger glasses -- much bigger glasses. In Northern California, we're beginning to take observations with the first 42 telescopes of the Allen Telescope Array -- and I've got to take a moment right now to publicly thank Paul Allen and Nathan Myhrvold and all the TeamSETI members in the TED community who have so generously supported this research. (Applause)
從那時起我們都堅持的在搜索 但是這搜索的程度是不可能誇大的 過去40年來SETI所作的全部努意 只不過是大海中的一杯水而已 不會有人因為這杯水裡沒有魚 就認為整個大海也都沒有 21世紀的科技允許我們建造更大的玻璃鏡片 更大的、更多的鏡片 在加州北部,我們開始用首批42組 艾倫望遠鏡陣列來進行觀測 我要占月一點點的時間來詢問 保羅艾倫和內森梅爾沃德 以及所有TED社區之中 如此慷慨地支持這項研究的SETI成員們表示感謝 (掌聲)
The ATA is the first telescope built from a large number of small dishes, and hooked together with computers. It's making silicon as important as aluminum, and we'll grow it in the future by adding more antennas to reach 350 for more sensitivity and leveraging Moore's law for more processing capability. Today, our signal detection algorithms can find very simple artifacts and noise. If you look very hard here you can see the signal from the Voyager 1 spacecraft, the most distant human object in the universe, 106 times as far away from us as the sun is. And over those long distances, its signal is very faint when it reaches us. It may be hard for your eye to see it, but it's easily found with our efficient algorithms. But this is a simple signal, and tomorrow we want to be able to find more complex signals.
ATE是第一個用大量小型碟形天線通過電腦相互連結 建造而成的望遠鏡 這樣矽就變得跟鋁一樣得重要 未來我們會增加更多天線至350座左右 以穫得更佳的敏感度並藉著摩爾定律而利用更多數據處理的能力 今天我們的信號偵測運算法 可以分析出非常簡單的人為信號和噪音 如果你非常仔細地觀察還能看到旅行者1號飛船發出的信號 目前宇宙中離我們最遠的人造物 為於106倍於地球到太陽間的距離 經過這遙遠的距離,當它的信號被我們接收到時已經變的非常的微弱了 可能肉眼更難識別 但是使用高效率的運算法就能輕易的分析出來 不過這是個簡單的訊號 未來我們希望能夠分析出更加複雜的訊號
This is a very good year. 2009 is the 400th anniversary of Galileo's first use of the telescope, Darwin's 200th birthday, the 150th anniversary of the publication of "On the Origin of Species," the 50th anniversary of SETI as a science, the 25th anniversary of the incorporation of the SETI Institute as a non-profit, and of course, the 25th anniversary of TED. And next month, the Kepler Spacecraft will launch and will begin to tell us just how frequent Earth-like planets are, the targets for SETI's searches. In 2009, the U.N. has declared it to be the International Year of Astronomy, a global festival to help us residents of Earth rediscover our cosmic origins and our place in the universe. And in 2009, change has come to Washington, with a promise to put science in its rightful position. (Applause)
今年是很棒的一年 2009年是離伽利略第一次使用望遠鏡過後的400周年 達爾文冥誕200周年 <物種起源>出版的150周年 SETI作為科學研究的50周年 SETI成為非營利組織的25周年 當然還有,TED的25周年 下個月,都普勒飛船會發射升空 並告訴我們像地球一樣的行星在宇宙中的存在有多頻繁 這即是SETI搜索的目標們 聯合國宣佈2009年為國際天文年 一個全球性的節日在幫助 地球的居民們重新來探索我們的起源以及我們在宇宙中的位置 並且在2009年,華盛頓有了新的改變 這將伴隋著將科學回歸到正確地位的承諾 (掌聲)
So, what would change everything? Well, this is the question the Edge foundation asked this year, and four of the respondents said, "SETI." Why? Well, to quote: "The discovery of intelligent life beyond Earth would eradicate the loneliness and solipsism that has plagued our species since its inception. And it wouldn't simply change everything, it would change everything all at once." So, if that's right, why did we only capture four out of those 151 minds? I think it's a problem of completion and delivery, because the fine print said, "What game-changing ideas and scientific developments would you expect to live to see?" So, we have a fulfillment problem. We need bigger glasses and more hands in the water, and then working together, maybe we can all live to see the detection of the first extraterrestrial signal.
甚麼才能改變一切? 這是今年"邊緣"組織所提出的問題, 而其中四個調查對像回答:"SETI" 為甚麼? 有人說過: "對地球以外智慧生物的發現 將根除從最初就折磨著我們這種種族 的孤單與唯我論 這將不僅僅是改變一切 它將側側底底地一次性的改變所有的事情 如果真的是那樣,為甚麼151位被調查者中只有4位是這樣認為? 我認為這是一個實現與表述 因為那排小字上說了: "您將希望在有生之年看到 甚麼樣的震撼想法與科技發展?" 這樣我們就有了一個實踐上的困難 我們需要更大的鏡片和更多的人手 加入進來共同努力,或許在我們的有生之年 可能會偵測到第一個來自外星的信號
That brings me to my wish. I wish that you would empower Earthlings everywhere to become active participants in the ultimate search for cosmic company.
這就帶出了我的願望 我希望你們能鼓勵 世界各地的地球人積極的參與 這個對宇宙同伴的終極搜索
The first step would be to tap into the global brain trust, to build an environment where raw data could be stored, and where it could be accessed and manipulated, where new algorithms could be developed and old algorithms made more efficient. And this is a technically creative challenge, and it would change the perspective of people who worked on it. And then, we'd like to augment the automated search with human insight. We'd like to use the pattern recognition capability of the human eye to find faint, complex signals that our current algorithms miss.
第一步即是利用全球智囊團 來建構第一個原始數據 這個原始數據能被儲存、查詢以及操作 同時新的算法將被發展並且原有的算法亦可改進 這是一個技術上的創新挑戰 它將改變參與其中的人們的視角 接著,我們希望通過人工的分析來補強自動搜索 我們想使用人眼的模式識別能力來幫助發現 現有算法所遺漏的黯淡及複雜的信號
And, of course, we'd like to inspire and engage the next generation. We'd like to take the materials that we have built for education, and get them out to students everywhere, students that can't come and visit us at the ATA. We'd like to tell our story better, and engage young people, and thereby change their perspective.
當然我們很樂意啟發並帶動下一代 我們希望能將已整理好的資料用於教學 分發給各地的學生 學生們不一定要前來ATA(艾倫望遠鏡陣列)訪問我們 我們希望能更好地講述這些故事 並讓年輕人參與進來,借此來改變他們的視角
I'm sorry Seth Godin, but over the millennia, we've seen where tribalism leads. We've seen what happens when we divide an already small planet into smaller islands. And, ultimately, we actually all belong to only one tribe, to Earthlings. And SETI is a mirror -- a mirror that can show us ourselves from an extraordinary perspective, and can help to trivialize the differences among us. If SETI does nothing but change the perspective of humans on this planet, then it will be one of the most profound endeavors in history.
賽思戈丁,很抱歉,但是千年以來,我們已經看出部落制度會走到甚麼地步 我們看到了將一個本來就非常小的星球 再分割成許多小島的情況會發生甚麼 最終,我們實際上只屬於一個部落 我們都是地球人 SETI是一面鏡子 一面能通過卓越的視角 折射出我們自己 並削減人與人之間差異的鏡子 如果SETI除了改變這個星球上人類的視角以外甚麼都沒做到 那它也可成為歷史上影響最深遠的運動之一
So, in the opening days of 2009, a visionary president stood on the steps of the U.S. Capitol and said, "We cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass, that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve, that, as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself." So, I look forward to working with the TED community to hear about your ideas about how to fulfill this wish, and in collaborating with you, hasten the day that that visionary statement can become a reality.
所以在2009年的開端 一位具有遠見卓越的總統踏入美國國會 並說到:"我們不得不相信" 某天對老天的怨恨終會消散 部落間的界線將會很快的消失 隨著這個世界越變越小,我們集體的人性自會彰顯 我期待著與TED社區一同努力 傾聽大家關於如何來完成這個願望的意見 以及與大家合作 來促使這描述成真的那一天的到來
Thank you. (Applause)
謝謝 (掌聲)