Let's face it: Driving is dangerous. It's one of the things that we don't like to think about, but the fact that religious icons and good luck charms show up on dashboards around the world betrays the fact that we know this to be true. Car accidents are the leading cause of death in people ages 16 to 19 in the United States -- leading cause of death -- and 75 percent of these accidents have nothing to do with drugs or alcohol.
让我们来面对一桩事实吧 开车是一件危险的事 它是我们不愿意去想的事物之一 但事实上那些神像和平安符 世界各地都有人把它们摆在仪表盘的上方 这就无意中透露出一个我们都心知肚明的事实 车祸是死亡的主因 尤其在美国16到19岁的美国人群中 死亡的主因 并且百分之七十五的车祸 都与毒品和酒精无关
So what happens? No one can say for sure, but I remember my first accident. I was a young driver out on the highway, and the car in front of me, I saw the brake lights go on. I'm like, "Okay, all right, this guy is slowing down, I'll slow down too." I step on the brake. But no, this guy isn't slowing down. This guy is stopping, dead stop, dead stop on the highway. It was just going 65 -- to zero? I slammed on the brakes. I felt the ABS kick in, and the car is still going, and it's not going to stop, and I know it's not going to stop, and the air bag deploys, the car is totaled, and fortunately, no one was hurt. But I had no idea that car was stopping, and I think we can do a lot better than that. I think we can transform the driving experience by letting our cars talk to each other.
那么 究竟发生了什么 没人能给出确切答案 但我记得我第一次出车祸 我当时还是个开车的新手,当时正在外面高速路上开着车。 我突然看见我前面汽车的刹车灯亮了 我当时想 好吧 他减速了 那我也减速好了 我踩了刹车 但是 我前面那个人并不是在减速 他(竟然)停车了 突然停车—— 在高速路上突然停车 速度从65迈瞬降到0 我猛踩刹车 我当时感觉到我的车的防抱死系统启动了 但车还在行驶 并没停下来的意思 我也知道我的车停不了了 安全气囊也鼓了起来 车报废了 但幸运的是 没有人受伤 但我根本不知道我前面那辆车要停 而且我想我们可以比那做得更好 我想我们通过实现“让汽车之间对话”—— 来改变我们的驾驶体验
I just want you to think a little bit about what the experience of driving is like now. Get into your car. Close the door. You're in a glass bubble. You can't really directly sense the world around you. You're in this extended body. You're tasked with navigating it down partially-seen roadways, in and amongst other metal giants, at super-human speeds. Okay? And all you have to guide you are your two eyes. Okay, so that's all you have, eyes that weren't really designed for this task, but then people ask you to do things like, you want to make a lane change, what's the first thing they ask you do? Take your eyes off the road. That's right. Stop looking where you're going, turn, check your blind spot, and drive down the road without looking where you're going. You and everyone else. This is the safe way to drive. Why do we do this? Because we have to, we have to make a choice, do I look here or do I look here? What's more important? And usually we do a fantastic job picking and choosing what we attend to on the road. But occasionally we miss something. Occasionally we sense something wrong or too late. In countless accidents, the driver says, "I didn't see it coming." And I believe that. I believe that. We can only watch so much.
我希望你们能思考片刻 思考一下现在的驾驶体验是怎么样的 坐进车里 关上车门 你就已经置身在一个玻璃气泡中 你不能直接感受到你周围的世界 因为你坐在车这样一个不小的空间里 你的任务就是导航 你只能看见道路的一部分 并且以超人类的速度行驶在其他的“金属巨人”间 对吧? 你只能靠双眼来导航 对 你别无他法 (但其实)眼睛并非是用来干着活儿的 但是有些事情你就必须得做,比方说, 你想换个车道 那你第一件要做的事是什么 将眼睛从车道上移开 对 将目光从你前进的方向移开 转弯 检查一下盲点 然后就一直开 根本不注意自己在往哪里开 所有人都这么做 这是安全的驾驶方式 我们为什么这么做? 因为我们别无选择 我们必须作出一个抉择 是朝这儿看 还是朝那儿看 更重要的一点是什么呢 我们通常都做得很好 能够很好的选择我们要往哪个方向开 但是偶然 我们也会忘记一些事情 有时 当我们发觉有些东西出了问题的时候 已经为时过晚。 在无数的车祸中 司机都会说 “我没想到会这样。” 我相信他们的话 我相信 我们看到的只有这么多而已
But the technology exists now that can help us improve that. In the future, with cars exchanging data with each other, we will be able to see not just three cars ahead and three cars behind, to the right and left, all at the same time, bird's eye view, we will actually be able to see into those cars. We will be able to see the velocity of the car in front of us, to see how fast that guy's going or stopping. If that guy's going down to zero, I'll know.
但是现存的科技可以帮我们改善这一点 在未来 车与车之间可以交换数据 我们就不仅只能看见前面的三台车了 还能看见后面的三台车,左边的,以及右边车。 同时看见 鸟瞰视野 我们可以看见这些车的内部 我们可以看到我们前面那辆车的速度 看看前面那位什么时候会启动或停下 假如那人的速度突然降到零,我就能知道了。
And with computation and algorithms and predictive models, we will be able to see the future. You may think that's impossible. How can you predict the future? That's really hard. Actually, no. With cars, it's not impossible. Cars are three-dimensional objects that have a fixed position and velocity. They travel down roads. Often they travel on pre-published routes. It's really not that hard to make reasonable predictions about where a car's going to be in the near future. Even if, when you're in your car and some motorcyclist comes -- bshoom! -- 85 miles an hour down, lane-splitting -- I know you've had this experience -- that guy didn't "just come out of nowhere." That guy's been on the road probably for the last half hour. (Laughter) Right? I mean, somebody's seen him. Ten, 20, 30 miles back, someone's seen that guy, and as soon as one car sees that guy and puts him on the map, he's on the map -- position, velocity, good estimate he'll continue going 85 miles an hour. You'll know, because your car will know, because that other car will have whispered something in his ear, like, "By the way, five minutes, motorcyclist, watch out." You can make reasonable predictions about how cars behave. I mean, they're Newtonian objects. That's very nice about them.
利用运算 代数以及预测模型 我们能看见未来 你可能会觉得这是不可能的 你怎么能预测未来呢 太难了 事实上 不难 对于汽车来说 这并非不可能 汽车是三维物体 位置速度都是固定的 行使在路上的时候 它们通常都是按照预先规划好的道路行驶 未来 想要预测汽车将要驶向什么方向 对之作出合理的预测并不困难 即使你在自己的车里 突然出现了一个开着摩托的人 砰! 时速85英里,跟你抢车道 我知道你们曾经有过这样的经历 那个开摩托的并非凭空出现 他可能之前的半小时就一直在路上开着吧 (笑声) 对吧?我的意思是,有人看见过他 在10,20,30英里前,有人看见过他, 只要一辆车看见那个人 将他的信息置入地图中,他的位置就会显示在地图上了 位置,速度 预测他将保持85英里的时速 那你就知道了,因为你的车就会知道了,因为 其他的车已经悄悄把这件事告诉它了 打个比方,“告诉你一声,五分钟之后 会出现个开摩托的,注意。” 你可以对汽车的运动作出合理的预测。 它们可是遵从牛顿力学的物体 这是它们的优点
So how do we get there? We can start with something as simple as sharing our position data between cars, just sharing GPS. If I have a GPS and a camera in my car, I have a pretty precise idea of where I am and how fast I'm going. With computer vision, I can estimate where the cars around me are, sort of, and where they're going. And same with the other cars. They can have a precise idea of where they are, and sort of a vague idea of where the other cars are. What happens if two cars share that data, if they talk to each other? I can tell you exactly what happens. Both models improve. Everybody wins. Professor Bob Wang and his team have done computer simulations of what happens when fuzzy estimates combine, even in light traffic, when cars just share GPS data, and we've moved this research out of the computer simulation and into robot test beds that have the actual sensors that are in cars now on these robots: stereo cameras, GPS, and the two-dimensional laser range finders that are common in backup systems. We also attach a discrete short-range communication radio, and the robots talk to each other. When these robots come at each other, they track each other's position precisely, and they can avoid each other.
那么我们怎么样才能做到这一点呢 我们可以从简单的开始 比如在车辆间共享位置数据 只需要共享GPS 假如我的车内装有GPS和摄像头 我就能清楚地知道自己的位置 自己的速度 那么利用电脑视野,我就可以预测 我周围的车大概在哪里,他们在向哪个方向前进 其他的车也是一样 他们也能知道自己的准确位置 并且大致知道其他车的位置 假如两车共享数据的话会发生什么呢? 假如他们实现彼此对话又会发生什么呢? 我可以很明确的告诉你答案 这两种模型都会进步 共赢 王鲍勃教授和他的团队 做了个电脑模拟系统 来研究 当我们结合不同的模糊预测的时候会发生什么 即使只是在交通情况通畅、 汽车仅仅共享GPS数据时 之后 我们让这项研究不仅限于电脑模拟 我们还用机器人测试床 它们用到的传感器 正是当下汽车里真正在用到的传感器 在这些机器人上有 立体相机 GPS 二位激光测距仪 这些(也)都是备用系统中非常常见的 我们再安装一个离散短距离无线电 实现机器人间的通话 当这些机器人遇见彼此时 它们能够准确地追踪彼此的位置 并可躲避彼此
We're now adding more and more robots into the mix, and we encountered some problems. One of the problems, when you get too much chatter, it's hard to process all the packets, so you have to prioritize, and that's where the predictive model helps you. If your robot cars are all tracking the predicted trajectories, you don't pay as much attention to those packets. You prioritize the one guy who seems to be going a little off course. That guy could be a problem. And you can predict the new trajectory. So you don't only know that he's going off course, you know how. And you know which drivers you need to alert to get out of the way.
我们现在正在向这样的混合系统中 添加更多的机器人 我们也遇到了一些问题 问题之一就是 当(汽车间的)“悄悄话”太泛滥 就很难处理所有的信息 所以你必须抓重点 在这样的情况下预测模型就可以派上用场了 假如你的机器人机器正在追踪所有已预测的轨迹 那么你就不用花费太多的精力去关注那些了 你可以将重心放在某台 看上去有些偏离航向的车上 那台车可能是一个隐患 那你就可以预测新的路线 这样你不仅知道了它正在偏离航向 你还知道了它是怎样偏离的 而且你还能知道你该提醒哪些司机注意躲避
And we wanted to do -- how can we best alert everyone? How can these cars whisper, "You need to get out of the way?" Well, it depends on two things: one, the ability of the car, and second the ability of the driver. If one guy has a really great car, but they're on their phone or, you know, doing something, they're not probably in the best position to react in an emergency. So we started a separate line of research doing driver state modeling. And now, using a series of three cameras, we can detect if a driver is looking forward, looking away, looking down, on the phone, or having a cup of coffee. We can predict the accident and we can predict who, which cars, are in the best position to move out of the way to calculate the safest route for everyone. Fundamentally, these technologies exist today.
我们一直也想这么做 可是怎样提醒他人才好呢 车怎么可能悄悄给彼此送信 说“你得躲一躲” 这个取决于两件事 第一 汽车的能力 第二 司机的能力 假如一个人的车超棒 但他在打电话或者,你懂得,开开小差 那他可能状态不佳 在面对紧急情况的时候措手不及 所以我们开展了一条独立的研究线路 司机状态模型 我们利用一系列三个摄像头 我们可以监测这个司机是在向前看 向边上看 向下看 打电话 还是喝咖啡 我们能预测车祸 我们可以预测哪些司机 哪些车 能够最快的离开将要出现事故的路线 为每个人算出最安全的线路 最根本的一点 这些技术现在已经成为了现实
I think the biggest problem that we face is our own willingness to share our data. I think it's a very disconcerting notion, this idea that our cars will be watching us, talking about us to other cars, that we'll be going down the road in a sea of gossip. But I believe it can be done in a way that protects our privacy, just like right now, when I look at your car from the outside, I don't really know about you. If I look at your license plate number, I don't really know who you are. I believe our cars can talk about us behind our backs.
我认为我们面临的最大的问题 就是我们自己是否愿意分享自己的数据 我认为这是一个非常令人不安的想法 设想我们自己的车将要监视着我们 跟其他的车分享我们的一举一动 那样我们就像开车穿过 对我们指指点点的人群 但我想这件事可以在保护我们隐私的情况下成功 就像现在一样 当我在外面看向你的车的时候 我并不能真正的了解你 当我看你的车牌号码时 我并不能知道你是谁 我觉得我们的车完全能在我们的背后谈论我们
(Laughter)
(笑声)
And I think it's going to be a great thing. I want you to consider for a moment if you really don't want the distracted teenager behind you to know that you're braking, that you're coming to a dead stop. By sharing our data willingly, we can do what's best for everyone.
而且 我认为这是一件非常好的事 我希望你们能思考片刻 假如你真心不想让 开在你后面的心不在焉的年轻人 知道你要停车 你要突然刹车的话 通过自愿分享我们的数据 我们可以实现人人共赢
So let your car gossip about you. It's going to make the roads a lot safer.
所以让你的车“八卦”你吧 这会让我们的道路更安全
Thank you.
谢谢大家
(Applause)
(鼓掌)