When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier. You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know, who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff, and, of course, with technology it never is. So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient. I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet, with such an incredible last half a dozen years, that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it. A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things and what we're supposed to expect about the future depends on how we bucket things and how we categorize them.
把弹性和技术放在一起考虑,是非常容易的 我知道大家会见到其他一些演讲者 他们会讨论骨折 当然,在技术领域,永远不会。 相对而言,技术很容易适应 如果我们看一看在过去的六年里 因特网上所发生的不可思议的一切, 那就会觉得 哪怕是给这一切找个简单恰当的类比也是很难的。 很多时候,我们如何做决定,如何对事物做反应 如何展望未来 都决定于我们储存事物的方式 以及事物的分类方法
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush. It's easy to think of this analogy as very different from some of the other things you might pick. For one thing, both were very real. In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million worth of gold out of California. It was very real. The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to communicate with each other. It's a big deal. Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust. You keep going, and both things are lots of hype. I don't have to remind you of all the hype that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
因此,我认为如果可以找一个形象的比喻来描述刚刚经历的网络泡沫 “淘金热”是首选 这个类比很容易理解 其他的比喻就显得没有这么形象 首先,网络泡沫和淘金热都是真实发生过的 在1849年的淘金潮中,人们从加州淘到价值7亿美元的黄金 这可是千真万确的 同时互联网也是完全真实的 它提供了一条真正的供人们进行交流的途径,这很了不起 巨大的繁荣,巨大的繁荣,急剧的衰败,急剧的衰败 接着想,二者都伴有大量夸张的宣传 不用我说,大家都还记得那些有关网络的炒作吧 比如GetRich.com (1999年9月时代周刊以GetRich.com为题,以长达20页的封面故事描绘网络诱人前景)
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold." Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal. Some have 5,000. Many have more. A few bring out 100,000 dollars each. People would get very excited about this when they read these articles. "The Eldorado of the United States of America: the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California." And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly. So many people left what they were doing. And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
我们再回头看淘金热,简直是一样的情况。 “金子,金子,金子” 在波特兰号蒸汽船上的68个暴发户,成堆的黄金! 有的人有五千,其他人拥有的更多 少数一些人就能淘到10万美元 人们读到这样的文章就会变得非常兴奋 美利坚合众国之黄金城 加州发现取之不尽的金矿 淘金热和网络热的相似之处仍然非常明显 很人就抛下自己的工作不做了 后来淘金热就这样持续了好多年
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news, they thought, "Ah, this isn't real." But they keep hearing about people getting rich, and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real. By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are. These are community affairs, by the way. Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States, and they would form companies. These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what, if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing, no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
东海岸的人,在1849年,当他们刚开始听说这事的时候 都寻思着,“不是真的吧。” 可他们不断地听说有人暴富了 直到1850年仍然有这种消息传来,可他们还不信 到差不多1852年,他们就觉得,“我是不是世上最傻的人, 怎么没早点儿冲到加州去呢?” 开始觉得自己真是晚了 当然,这些其实是地区性的事务 于是,东海岸当地的社区团体联合到一起 组织10到20人的商队横跨美国 并且,他们会组建公司(去淘金) 这些人显然依靠的不是个人力量 但不论是律师或银行家,他们丢下自己的工作 不管他们有什么技能,都跑去淘金子
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole, he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route. They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus, and then take another ship north. This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California. This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices. These are both very successful -- a physician in one case, a surgeon in the other. Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.
左边的这个人,Richard Beverley Cole医生 他住在费城,他走的是巴拿马航线 他们乘船直下到达巴拿马,跨过巴拿马地峡 然后换乘另一只船北上 这个Toland医生是乘带篷的大马车去的加州 他们俩也有相似之处,都是医生,并放弃了从医 他们俩都很成功(医术高明),一个在内科方面 一个在外科方面 我们看网络上也有这样的例子,出了个 DrKoop.com 网站
(Laughter)
(笑声)(由Koop医生成立于1997年的医疗健康网站DrKoop.com在网络泡沫时曾一度辉煌,后破产转手)
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship. The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon to go search for gold. So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships. They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere. You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever. And you saw some of the excesses that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened. The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers. Half of them deserted to go look for gold. And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
淘金热中,人们夸张得从船上跳下来 在旧金山的港口,最多的时候聚集了600艘船 因为当船到了那里,船员们都不顾一切的跳下船 的去淘金了 那里当时真的就只剩600个船长和600艘船 后来那些船都变成了宾馆,因为没有船员,这些船哪里也去不了 如果,我们把投身网络公司的热情,和曾经有过的淘金热相比较 你就能发现这一切有点过头了 当互联网热发起时,同样的事情发生了 旧金山的兵营有1300士兵 一半人擅离职守去淘金了 上级不敢让剩下的一半人去找他们 因为担心这些士兵也会一去不返
(Laughter)
(笑声)
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put: "The struggle between right and six dollars a month and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one." They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate. This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail. They loaded up their mules and their horses. And they didn't plan right. And they didn't know how far they would really have to go, and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff. In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died before they could get where they were going. It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
其中一个士兵在家信中这样写道: 我在这样的矛盾中挣扎,一边是去做正确的事情,每月6美元 另一边是做逃兵,每天75美元 淘金热的消耗非常严重,非常严重。 这是来自淘金热门地区Klondike的一张图片,上面的路被称之为“白通径” 人们把他们的骡子和马装好 但他们没有计划好 他们不知道他们要走多远 他们给骡子和马装了太多的东西 结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中 结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中 那条路后来被称为“亡马之路”
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time: "Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way, sometimes in bunches under the cliffs, with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above, sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march, often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive, a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade. The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere account for the myriads of ravens along the road. The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to, the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone, cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."
加拿大内政部长这样写道: 路的两边躺满了马的尸体 在悬崖下也有遍地的尸首 上面甚至还有马鞍和这些马坠崖前所驮的杂物 有时,在杂乱的人群中,这些马就在那些泥洞里寻找落脚点 在遥远的行程中背负着大量的货物 很多时候,我不得不说,太累了,但是要活下去 一个被我们忽略的事实就是,在骡马队伍之中 有着那么多的悲惨的人 遍地都是背负重担的动物,它们露出空洞的眼神 无数的乌鸦遍布路的两边 这条路见证的不人道 那些心碎和痛苦的经历,是难以想象的 更是难以用文字描述的
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that, we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations. I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it. This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
虽然没有那些与之俱来的气味 但是互联网上发生着同样的事情:极坏的亏损额计算 我给大家计算其中的一个,你们就会发现我所说的是对的 这是一个在2000年超级杯赛上被播放的商业广告
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do. Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation? Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man. Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife? Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day. OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.
(视频)一号新娘:你说你有很多可选择的邀请。职员:的确是这样的 二号新娘:那为什么她会有我的邀请函? 讲解:一些小事将会导致什么...三号新娘:你给我过来,混蛋! 讲解:对你来说可能很重要。一号丈夫:那是你妻子吗? 二号丈夫:15分钟后就是了。讲解:毕竟,这是你的好日子 OurBeginning.com网站,生活是件大事,把它向全世界公布
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
很难指出这个广告的目的
(Laughter)
(笑声)
But they spent three and a half million dollars in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad, even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue. Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge, and I think rather severely. And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over. Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson at the present time who feel keenly disappointed. They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property, spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch have reached the coveted goal only to discover the fact that there is nothing here for them."
但是,这家公司花费了350万美元 在2000年的超级杯上播出这个广告 即便是,在当时,该公司每年的收入只有100万美元 从这件事情上看,我们把互联网热和淘金热的类比就产生了分歧 而且分歧还很严重 在淘金热中,当它结束的时候,一切都结束了 这里有一个家伙写道:“在道森,当时 有很多人深感失望。 他们行程数千里,历经万险,冒着生命危险,不顾健康和财富 花费了一个人所能忍受的数个月的时间 整个过程中,他们心里一直抱着那个美好的期望 但是,等他们真正到达的时候 却发现什么也没有。”
And that was, of course, the very common story. Because when you take out that last piece of gold -- and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush -- the entire American river region, within two years -- every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies who used more sophisticated mining technologies started to take gold out of there. So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic and that analogy is the electric industry. And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry. With the electric industry you actually have to -- one of them is that they're both sort of thin, horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries. It's not a specific thing.
当然,这只是一个很普通的故事 因为,当你把最后一块黄金采掘出来的时候 这个过程是非常短暂的。我的意思是,如果你回顾1849年的淘金热—— 整个美洲地区的河流,在不到两年的时间里—— 人们翻遍了每一块石头。这样之后,只有那些大型的公司 用先进的开采技术 在那里进行黄金的开采 另外,还有一个好一点的类比,会让你感觉很乐观 那就是电气制造工业 电气制造工业和互联网有很多的相似之处 电气制造工业涉及的范围很广 ——当然,它和互联网一样,根基都不是很深 但是,它所涉及的不同的产业是很多的 这不是一个具体的事情
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down. You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power. It's an incredible means of coordinating, in a very fine-grained way, information flows. There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity. And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on is sort of the golden age of appliances. The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb. So the light bulb is what wired the world. And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world. They were really thinking about -- they weren't putting electricity into the home; they were putting lighting into the home. And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
但是电力的使用范围很广阔,因此你必须把它缩小了排序 它可以作为一种极佳的传输能量的方法 甚至可以促进合作 以一种非常精细的方式,包括信息流 关于电力,有一大堆的趣事 我所关注的电力革命 只是那些“黄金时代”中的器械装置 让整个世界为之一震的、最为显著的器械就是电灯泡了 把世界用电线连接起来的就是电灯泡 当人们架接电线的时候,他们没有想到其他的用电器 在当时,人们关注的只是—— 人们不认为是把电线扯到家里(没有把电力引进自己家中) 而是把照明装置安到家中 人们的确得到并使用了电力——但这花费了很长时间
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out. All the streets had to be torn up. This is work going on down in lower Manhattan where they built some of the first electric power generating stations. And they're tearing up all the streets. The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric, which became General Electric, paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive. But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web. Because, remember, the Web got to stand on top of all this heavy infrastructure that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network. So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure -- I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994, when it was growing 2,300 percent a year. How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994 when people weren't really investing in the Web? Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
中间花费了——正如你所期望的——巨大的资本去构建这个供电网络 所有的街道被重新休整了一番 这幅图片显示的是在下曼哈顿 施工人员正在建设第一座发电站 他们挖开所有的街道 爱迪生电气公司,后来更名为爱迪生通用电气公司 后来成为现在的通用电气 出资进行道路的挖掘,这是非常昂贵的 但,这还不是和网络最相似的地方 因为,网络是基于 所有的那些大型的基础设施之上的 而当时这些基础设施主要服务于长距离的电话网络 因此,所有的电缆和那些重型的基础设施—— 我刚刚讲的,就是1994年网络爆炸式发展中的一部分 其年增长率一度达到2300% 在1994年,网络产业是怎么做到一年增长2300%, 并且没有外部的投资? 其实,就是因为这些重型、大型的基础设施早已经铺设好了
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure, and then home appliances started coming into being. And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan -- this was the 1890 electric fan. And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted -- it depends how you want to measure it -- but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time. It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success. The electric iron, also very big. By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
电灯的普及导致了重型设备的投入 在此基础上家用电器开始遍地生花 当然,这个数量(家用电器)非常庞大的。第一件家用电器是电风扇—— 这个照片就是1890年发明的电风扇 这些设备,这些设备、器械的繁荣时期持续了—— 当然这取决于你怎么衡量它—— 大约有40到60年的样子。这是一段很长的时期 大约开始于1890年,并且电风扇是一个巨大的成功 电熨斗,也非常成功 顺便说一下,这也是有关石棉诉讼的开端(石棉可用作保温隔热材料)
(Laughter)
(笑声)
There's asbestos under that handle there. This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum, from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car. So it wasn't a big seller. This was truly, truly an early-adopter product -- (Laughter) the 1905 Skinner Vacuum. But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds. Now, not all these things were highly successful.
在那个把手下有石棉物质 这是第一台吸尘器,1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器 它是Hoover公司制造的,重达92磅 需要两个人进行操作,并且其造价达到了一辆汽车的四分之一 所以,它卖的不是很好 这是最早的采纳产品 (笑声) 1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器 仅仅三年后,也就是1908年,它的重量就缩减到了40磅 并不是所有的事情都是那么成功
(Laughter)
(笑声)
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on. People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties. These never really caught on either: the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller. This came in, like, six different colors.
这是一个电力领带熨平器,它就没有流行起来 我猜,人们都不会把他们的领带弄皱 下面的这些也没有流行起来: 鞋子专用的电动加热干燥器,销量很差 它看起来有六种不同的颜色
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I don't know why. But I thought, you know, sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention; maybe it's time to give this one another shot. So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this. We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really -- (Laughter) I thought that would really work, to give that another shot. Now, the toaster was huge because they used to make toast on open fires, and it took a lot of time and attention. I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is. They hadn't invented the electric socket yet. So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity. They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in. They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top. And you'd plug it in there.
我不知道这是为什么,但是,你们可能会这样认为 并不是任何时候都适合进行一些发明创造 也许,现在是重新启动这项发明的最佳时间 因此,我们可以就此推出一个广告,将其在超级杯上播放 我们需要合适的合作伙伴,而且我觉得—— (笑声) 我觉得这样一定可行,值得重新尝试一下 电烤箱曾经是个庞然大物 因为人们通常在野外做烤面包 这需要很多的时间和精力 我想指出的是,这个,大家应该知道这是什么东西 那个时候人们尚未发明电插座 还记得吗,当时人们不是为了使用电力而拉电线 他们是为了照明。因此,你可以把你的用电器插到上面 人们在每一间屋子的天花板上都会装一个灯泡插座 这样你就可以把灯泡插在上面了
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World, you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture. All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb if you wanted to plug in an appliance. The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine. Now, this was an object of much envy and lust. Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines. On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water. And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning. And it would clean your clothes. This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here, put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric wringer. And this was a big deal. You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain. And you'd run a long cord into the house where you could screw it into your light socket.
如果你没有见到过迪斯尼乐园的旋转木马 你一定看到过这个。这些是连接灯具的电线 所有的用电器都装在上面。你需要做的就是将你的灯泡拧下来 这样你就可以使用其他的用电器了 洗衣机是接下来的非常成功的另一个例子 这是一个充满嫉妒和欲望对象 每个人都想得到一台电动洗衣机 左边的那个桶装的是肥皂水 那里有一个转子,是一个旋转式马达 它会清洁你的衣服 这是漂洗用的干净的水。从这里你可以把衣服拿出来 放在这里,然后把衣服通过这个电圈 这是一台很了不起的电器 你会把它放在你的门廊上,因为它有点脏,并且有点烦人 你不得不扯一条很长的电线到你的房子里 这样你才能把它连在灯座上
(Laughter)
(笑声)
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation, because they hadn't invented the off switch. That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances -- because it didn't make any sense. I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket. So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it. That's what you did. You didn't turn it off. And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either, so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device. And there are -- when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices. And they couldn't yank the cord out because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
而这实际上是我的介绍中很重要的一点 因为人们当时还没有发明开关 而电器上开关的发明时间比这个还要晚 因为人们觉得这没有什么意义 我的意思是说,人们不希望有什么东西把灯泡底座堵住 当人们不想使用灯泡的时候,就会把它拧松一些 这就是人们当时所做的,实际上并没有关掉它 正如我之前所讲,人们并没有去发明电插座 因此,洗衣机是一台很危险的设备 实际上 当你研究这些事情的时候,你会找到一些恐怖的描述 比如说人们会不小心把头发和衣服搅在一起 而且你还不能立马将电源断掉 因为电源插头被紧紧拧在了屋里的灯泡插座上
(Laughter) And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good. And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors to be plugging things into a light socket like this. But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors, I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room. This is a total kludge, if you ask me. First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket -- (Laughter) and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
(笑声) 并且洗衣机上也没有开关,这样一点儿也不好 你也许会想我们的先人们真是不一般的傻 竟然会把用电器像这样插到灯泡插座上 但,在我过多讨论谴责我们先人之前 我觉得我要先给大家展示一下:这是我的会议室 这绝对是一台杂牌组装电脑 首先,它组装的乱七八糟。这个电灯插座—— (笑声) 电线总是会掉出来,所以我就把它固定在了上面
(Laughter)
(笑声)
This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one. This is what it looks like under my desk. I took this picture just two days ago. So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
这样我就不用总是连接电线了,但这还不是最糟糕的 这是我桌子底下的情形 是我两天前拍下来的 其实,自从1908年以来我们根本没有太大的进步
(Laughter)
(笑声)
It's a total, total mess. And, you know, we think it's getting better, but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
还是一团糟 我觉得将来会更好一些 但,你有没有试着自己安装802.11
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I challenge you to try. It's very hard. I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science -- this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter) And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house. Try to get DSL installed in your house. The engineers who do it everyday can't do it. They have to -- typically, they come three times. And one friend of mine was telling me a story: not only did they get there and have to wait, but then the engineers, when they finally did get there, for the third time, they had to call somebody. And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone because then they had to wait on hold for an hour to talk to somebody to give them an access code after they got there. So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
我觉得大家应该尝试一下,非常难 我认识的一些计算机科学专业的博士 都认为这个过程非常劳神,绝对让人痛苦 前提是,你在你的家中有DSL(数字用户线路) 把数字用户线路装在你的家中 每天做这件事情的工程师都做不了 他们有时不得不往返三次 我的一个朋友曾经告诉我一个故事 不仅仅是那些工作人员到了那里之后,去等待 而且最终工程师到了那里 也就是第三次的时候,工程师也不得不打电话求助其他人 那些工作人员很高兴,因为这个工程师有一个免提电话 这样他们在另一个小时的等待过程中就可以 和另一拨人交流并告诉他们访问代码 直至他们到达 其实我们自己本身就是一台杂牌组装电脑
By the way, DSL is a kludge. I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed for the purpose it's being put to -- you know it's the whole thing -- we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point. Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush, then you'd be pretty depressed right now because the last nugget of gold would be gone. But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget. Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
顺便说一下,DSL(数字用户线路)就是组装的 也就是说铜制双绞线设计制作的初衷 并不是用于互联网 这就是整个事情 我们是很原始的,这才是重点 因为,你知道的,弹性——如果你把它当作淘金热 然后你会很沮丧 因为最后一块黄金将会消失 不过,值得高兴的是,通过创新,黄金将会取之不尽 新生事物创造了两个新问题的同时也创造了两个新的机遇(问题与机遇并存)
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are -- this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge -- and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web -- but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff -- we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet. That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it, but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are. We're in 1908.
如果你相信这句话,那么你也就能体会我们现在的处境 这就是我的观点:我喜欢我们所处的这种充斥了组装电脑的环境 我甚至没有提及互联网上的用户界面(的千差万别) 但是,现实中有太多的杂牌组装电脑,太多可怕的东西 当今互联网的发展状况和1908年Hurley牌洗衣机如出一辙 这就是现在我们的处境。我们不再有头发被搅在洗衣机里的事件发生了 但这就是我们所处在的原始水平 仿佛回到了1908年
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996: "All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble." 1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb." My mom hates this picture.
如果你相信我所说的,那么像这样的事情就不会困扰你了。这是1996年的一条消息: “所有的负面消息累积起来,让我们觉得解决网络问题的努力变得毫无价值。” 1998:“亚马逊如同烤面包”,但1999:“亚马逊就是炸弹” 我妈妈不喜欢这张照片
(Laughter)
(笑声)
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very, very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine, then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are. And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us than there is behind us. And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right. This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917. It says: "Use your electricity for more than light." And I think that's where we are. We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
但是,如果你真是这么认为的话,那仅仅是 一个开始,如果你把互联网看成是1908年的Hurley牌洗衣机 你就会觉得很有希望。而我就是这么看待现如今的网络的 我坚信,将来我们能够创造的革新远比我们已经 做到的要多得多 1917年,当时...我希望别把这个搞错了 这是一个在1917年播出的广告 上面有句话:“不要仅仅用电来照明。” 我觉得,这就是我们现在所面临的处境 我们还非常非常早。谢谢大家。