When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier. You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know, who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff, and, of course, with technology it never is. So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient. I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet, with such an incredible last half a dozen years, that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it. A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things and what we're supposed to expect about the future depends on how we bucket things and how we categorize them.
テクノロジーや回復力は 想像するよりずっと簡単です 他の講演者の皆さんも 骨が折れることを話題にされるようですが テクノロジーがあれば別です 比較的 返り咲くことはとても簡単です インターネットで何が起こったかを見てみると ここ6年間で驚くべきことが数々起こったため たとえ話として例を挙げるのも難しい 決断の仕方 物事への反応の仕方 未来への展望の多くは 私たちがものごとを列挙し 分類する方法により決まります
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush. It's easy to think of this analogy as very different from some of the other things you might pick. For one thing, both were very real. In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million worth of gold out of California. It was very real. The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to communicate with each other. It's a big deal. Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust. You keep going, and both things are lots of hype. I don't have to remind you of all the hype that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
インターネットの栄枯盛衰のもっともらしい比較対象として ゴールドラッシュが挙げられます 他の例を挙げる方もいるでしょうが ネット・ブームもゴールドラッシュも 現実の出来事です 1849年におこったゴールドラッシュは 7億ドル相当の金が カリフォルニアから採掘されました インターネットも現実的な 人々のコミュニュケーション手段として 壮大なブームを巻き起こし その後 派手に崩壊しました どちらもたくさんの詐欺により左右されました どんな詐欺があったか言わなくてもご存じですね 金持ちになろうドットコム などです
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold." Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal. Some have 5,000. Many have more. A few bring out 100,000 dollars each. People would get very excited about this when they read these articles. "The Eldorado of the United States of America: the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California." And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly. So many people left what they were doing. And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
ゴールドラッシュの時も「金 金 金」と見出しが載り 「蒸気船ポートランドに68人の金持ちが積み重なった金塊を持ち乗船」 「ほとんどが5千ドル相当以上の金を発掘し 10万ドル相当を持ち出した者も」 といった記事を読んで人々は興奮したのです 「米国にも黄金の国 エルドラド発見」 「尽きることのない金鉱がカリフォルニアに」といった具合です ゴールドラッシュとインターネットバブルの比較は鮮明です たくさんの人々が仕事を放り出し ゴールドラッシュは何年も続きました
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news, they thought, "Ah, this isn't real." But they keep hearing about people getting rich, and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real. By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are. These are community affairs, by the way. Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States, and they would form companies. These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what, if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing, no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
初めてニュースが東海岸に広まった1849年には 誰もそんな話を信じませんでした そして1年経った1850年にも次々に金持ちが生まれる話が まだ信じられませんでした 3年後の1852年には 自分がカリフォルニアに 繰り出さなかった愚かさに気づき 東海岸の町ぐるみで 10~20人ずつのチームをつくり 会社を設立して アメリカ大陸を横断したのです ほとんどがグループで旅に出たのです 弁護士であろうが銀行員であろうが どんな技能を持っていようが職を離れて金を掘り起こしに行ったのです
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole, he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route. They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus, and then take another ship north. This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California. This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices. These are both very successful -- a physician in one case, a surgeon in the other. Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.
コール医師もそんなひとりです フィラデルフィアからパナマ経由で 地峡を超えて船に乗り 北に向かったのです トーランド医師は 幌馬車を使いました ふたりとも名医であったにも関わらず 患者を残して カリフォルニアを 目指したのです 同じようにネット・バブルではドクター・クープドットコムが出現しています
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship. The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon to go search for gold. So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships. They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere. You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever. And you saw some of the excesses that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened. The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers. Half of them deserted to go look for gold. And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
ゴールドラッシュに 人々は船から飛び降りるように殺到しました サンフランシスコ港には 金を探しに行った乗務員が乗り捨てた船が ピーク時には 600隻も 溢れました 残された600人の船長は 船をホテルにせざるを得なくなったそうです ゴールド熱と同様にドットコム熱も 同じような 行き過ぎた行動を生みました サンフランシスコの砦には1300人の兵士がいたのですが その半数が職務を放棄し金を探しに行ったのです そしてミイラ取りがミイラになるのを恐れて 連れ戻す命令はなかったそうです
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put: "The struggle between right and six dollars a month and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one." They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate. This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail. They loaded up their mules and their horses. And they didn't plan right. And they didn't know how far they would really have to go, and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff. In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died before they could get where they were going. It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
兵士が家族に宛てた手紙に 「金が掘り当てられるかどうかで 月給6ドルと日給75ドルの差は厳しい」と書かれています ゴールドラッシュにより燃え尽きる割合は非常に高かったのです これはクロンダイク金鉱へ続くホワイト峠の道です ラバや馬に重量オーバーになる程 荷物を積んで きちんとした計画もなく どこまで行けばよいか当てもないまま 荷物の積みすぎでほとんどの馬は 目的地にたどり着く前に 死んでしまったことから 「死に馬の道」と呼ばれるようになりました
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time: "Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way, sometimes in bunches under the cliffs, with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above, sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march, often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive, a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade. The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere account for the myriads of ravens along the road. The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to, the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone, cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."
カナダの内務大臣はこう書いたそうです 「荷馬が数千頭も死んで倒れている 崖の上から落ち 群れなして 荷鞍をつけたまま 泥の中にお互いもつれ合って まだ死んでなくとも 息も絶え絶えだ こんなひどい状況はあまり知らされていないが カラスに眼をえぐり取られて 眼窩から眼がなくなった 馬の死骸に 数えきれないカラスが群がっている この「死に馬の道」の残酷な光景は 想像を絶するもので 言葉にはできません」
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that, we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations. I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it. This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
臭いがないだけで インターネットも同様に 燃焼割合は良くありません 皆さんの記憶に新しいコマーシャルをお見せしましょう これは2000年のスーパーボウルの間に放映されたコマーシャルです
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do. Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation? Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man. Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife? Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day. OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.
「たくさんの招待状が選べると言ったじゃないの」「その通りですが...」 「じゃあなぜこの人が私の招待状を持っているの」 「取るに足らない事と思われますが...」「あなたは私のものよ」 「皆さんには重大事かも」「この人あなたの奥さん?」 「15分後にはね」「一生に一度の一日なのです」 「私たちのスタートドットコム イベントを世界に伝えよう」
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
このコマーシャルが何のためのものかよくわかりません
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
But they spent three and a half million dollars in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad, even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue. Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge, and I think rather severely. And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over. Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson at the present time who feel keenly disappointed. They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property, spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch have reached the coveted goal only to discover the fact that there is nothing here for them."
スーパーボウルの間に放映されるコマーシャルなので この会社は350万ドルこれにつぎ込んだのです 当時のこの会社の歳入は100万ドルしかなかったにも関わらずです ここでゴールドラッシュとネット・バブルの比較が かなり食い違ってきます ゴールドラッシュの場合 金が底をつけばそれで終わりです ドーソンには ひどく失望した男が 現時点でたくさんいる 数千マイルも自分の命 健康 そして財産も脅かす危ない旅をして 何ヶ月もの厳しく骨の折れる労働の末 切望してきた最後のゴール地点で 期待が頂点に上り詰めた時に 実は何も残っていなかったことに気づかされたのです
And that was, of course, the very common story. Because when you take out that last piece of gold -- and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush -- the entire American river region, within two years -- every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies who used more sophisticated mining technologies started to take gold out of there. So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic and that analogy is the electric industry. And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry. With the electric industry you actually have to -- one of them is that they're both sort of thin, horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries. It's not a specific thing.
勿論 これはよくある話です 最後の金塊を掘り出した後に 1849年のゴールドラッシュを見ればわかるように アメリカの河川領域にある石が 2年の間にすべて裏返され その後 洗練された採鉱技術を持つ 大会社が採掘を始めたのです ですからゴールドラッシュよりはるかに楽観的になれる 比較の対象は電気産業です インターネットと電気産業のあゆみの間には多くの共通点があります 電気産業は 小さな横のつながりで形成された 色々な産業の層からなり 単体からなるものではありません
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down. You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power. It's an incredible means of coordinating, in a very fine-grained way, information flows. There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity. And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on is sort of the golden age of appliances. The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb. So the light bulb is what wired the world. And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world. They were really thinking about -- they weren't putting electricity into the home; they were putting lighting into the home. And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
電気は大変幅広いため的を絞らなければいけません 電力を供給する素晴らしい手段でありながら 声を伝達できる電話のような きめ細かい情報まで伝達できるのです 電気には面白い側面があります 電気産業で起こった革命の中で今日お話ししたいのは 電化製品の黄金時代に 世界を電化製品の導入に乗り気にさせた製品は電球でした 電球が世界の回線を結んだのです もともと電気の回線を引く際に 誰も 電化製品のことは考えておらず 電力を家庭に普及させるというより 電球がメインだったのです ですからご想像どおり
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out. All the streets had to be torn up. This is work going on down in lower Manhattan where they built some of the first electric power generating stations. And they're tearing up all the streets. The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric, which became General Electric, paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive. But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web. Because, remember, the Web got to stand on top of all this heavy infrastructure that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network. So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure -- I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994, when it was growing 2,300 percent a year. How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994 when people weren't really investing in the Web? Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
莫大な資産が投じられました すべての道が掘り起こされ 最初の発電所が建設された マンハッタン南端部の様子です 道を掘り起こしている様子です エジソン電気照明がエジソン総合電気と社名を変え 後のゼネラル・エレクトリックの基礎となり 大変費用がかかる道路の掘り起こし作業に経費を出しました しかし そこがインターネットとの共通点ではありません ご存じのようにネットは 長距離電話回線用の ネットワークを基盤に構築されました インターネットブームが起きた1994年 ネットは年間2300%の割合で 急成長しました ネットへの投資が盛んでなかったときに どうやって2300%もの割合で成長を遂げられたのでしょうか? なぜなら広範囲にわたるインフラが既に構築されていたからです
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure, and then home appliances started coming into being. And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan -- this was the 1890 electric fan. And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted -- it depends how you want to measure it -- but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time. It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success. The electric iron, also very big. By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
電球が そのインフラを構築させたのです そして家電製品が普及し始め 大きなセンセーションを巻き起こしたのです 最初のセンセーションは1890年に世に出たこの扇風機です こういった電化製品の黄金時代はかなりの間 続いたのです どのようにその期間を測るかにもよりますが 40~60年間は続いたといえます 1890年ごろ世に紹介されたこの扇風機は大変な成功をおさめました そしてアイロンです これも大ヒットしました ちなみに これが最初のアスベスト訴訟の始まりです
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
There's asbestos under that handle there. This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum, from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car. So it wasn't a big seller. This was truly, truly an early-adopter product -- (Laughter) the 1905 Skinner Vacuum. But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds. Now, not all these things were highly successful.
取っ手の内側にアスベストが使われていたのです これが1905年にフーバー社から発表された最初の掃除機 スキナー・バキュームで 42kgもの重量があり2人がかりで動かさねばならず 自動車の1/4ほどの価格で売られていました 当然 あまり売れませんでした これぞ家電製品の元祖です (聴衆より笑い) 1905年のスキナー・バキュームは 3年後の1908年には軽量化され18kgになったそうです こういった家電製品は皆ヒット商品ではありませんでした
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on. People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties. These never really caught on either: the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller. This came in, like, six different colors.
皆ネクタイにシワがよらないように気をつけたせいか ネクタイのプレス機は 一度もヒットしませんでした これは靴のドライヤー兼ウォーマーです 6色から選べるのに売れませんでした
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
I don't know why. But I thought, you know, sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention; maybe it's time to give this one another shot. So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this. We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really -- (Laughter) I thought that would really work, to give that another shot. Now, the toaster was huge because they used to make toast on open fires, and it took a lot of time and attention. I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is. They hadn't invented the electric socket yet. So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity. They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in. They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top. And you'd plug it in there.
どうしてでしょう 時には発明にも時期があります 今がその時かも知れません スーパーボウルのコマーシャルを 適切なパートナーと作ったら (聴衆より笑い) 今度はヒットするかも知れません トースターも大きな話題を呼びました 直火でパンを焼いたからです もちろん 時間も労力もずいぶんかかりました ここでひとつ質問です 皆さんこれが何かご存じでしょう まだ電球が挿入されるソケットは発明されていませんでした 当時 電気の回路は家庭に普及していなかったのです 照明用の配線が施され家電がプラグで接続されました どの家庭にも天井に電球用のソケットがありました そしてそこへ家電を接続したのです
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World, you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture. All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb if you wanted to plug in an appliance. The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine. Now, this was an object of much envy and lust. Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines. On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water. And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning. And it would clean your clothes. This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here, put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric wringer. And this was a big deal. You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain. And you'd run a long cord into the house where you could screw it into your light socket.
ディズニーワールドのカルーセル・オブ・プログレスを ご覧になったことがあれば これが何かわかるでしょう そこの電球を外して 家電を接続したのです 次に大きな注目を集めたのは洗濯機でした 洗濯機は羨望の的でした 皆 洗濯機が欲しくてたまらなかったのです 左側にせっけん水が入ります そして回転するモーターがあり 洗濯物をきれいにしたのです 洗濯物を取り出してすすぎ用のきれいな水の入った ドラムへ入れ 脱水機にかけるのです それが大きな話題を呼んだのです それを玄関先に置いたので少々景観を損ねるだけでなく 長いコードを家の中まで 引いて来なければならなかったので大変でした
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation, because they hadn't invented the off switch. That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances -- because it didn't make any sense. I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket. So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it. That's what you did. You didn't turn it off. And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either, so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device. And there are -- when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices. And they couldn't yank the cord out because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
このプレゼンの重要な論点のひとつは 「停止」ボタンがまだ発明されていなかったことです 家電の「停止」ボタンはずいぶん後になって世に出たのです 電球を接続する ソケットをいっぱいにしたくなかったので 洗濯機を使い終わるとプラグからはずしたので 「停止」ボタンは必要なかったのです コンセントもまだ発明されていなかったので 洗濯機は危険を伴う 製品のひとつでした 髪の毛や衣服が挟まっても コードをすぐに抜いて機械を止められなかったので ぞっとするような話が 調べてみると たくさん出てきます
(Laughter) And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good. And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors to be plugging things into a light socket like this. But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors, I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room. This is a total kludge, if you ask me. First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket -- (Laughter) and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
(聴衆より笑い) 「停止」ボタンを付けず 電球のソケットにコードを接続していたとは なんて私たちの祖先は愚かだったんだろうとお思いでしょう しかし 私たちの祖先を非難する前に 私の会議室をお見せしましょう これはひどい状態です ところでこのコンセントは逆さまに設置されていますよね (聴衆より笑い) コードがすぐ落ちるので テープで止めました
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one. This is what it looks like under my desk. I took this picture just two days ago. So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
これは最悪の光景ではなく 私の机の下のいつもの様子です 2日前に撮った写真です 1908年より大して進歩していないのです
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
It's a total, total mess. And, you know, we think it's getting better, but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
ひどい散らかりようです でも本当は進歩しているのです 802.11を自分で設置しようとされたことはありますか
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
I challenge you to try. It's very hard. I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science -- this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter) And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house. Try to get DSL installed in your house. The engineers who do it everyday can't do it. They have to -- typically, they come three times. And one friend of mine was telling me a story: not only did they get there and have to wait, but then the engineers, when they finally did get there, for the third time, they had to call somebody. And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone because then they had to wait on hold for an hour to talk to somebody to give them an access code after they got there. So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
やってみて下さい 難しいですよ コンピューターサイエンスの博士に頼んだのですが これは本当に博士泣かせな処置です これはDSLが既に設置されていたとしての話です DSLを家に設置してみてください 日々DSLを設置している技術者でさえできないのです 通常 3回の訪問で設置されます 友人から聞いた話ですが 技術者は3回も出直した挙句に 客の家で待機をしなくてはなりませんでした スピーカーフォンがあったのが幸いです なぜなら アクセスコードを聞きだすのに 1時間も待って やっとDSLが 設置できたのです ですから私たちもずいぶんひどいものです
By the way, DSL is a kludge. I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed for the purpose it's being put to -- you know it's the whole thing -- we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point. Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush, then you'd be pretty depressed right now because the last nugget of gold would be gone. But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget. Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
DSLもひどい 最初につくった目的とは 全く違う用途に使われている 捻じれた銅線です すべては 本当に原始的だということが私の申し上げたいポイントです ゴールドラッシュの「回復力」について考えてみると かなり落ち込むのが当然でしょう 最後の金塊がなくなれば終わりですから 幸いイノベーションは金塊のように尽きることがありません 新しいものをつくる度に 改善点に気づきそれがまた新しいチャンスになる
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are -- this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge -- and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web -- but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff -- we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet. That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it, but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are. We're in 1908.
もしそれが信じられるなら 私たちが立っている地点はまだ原始的です ネット上のユーザーインターフェースなど ごちゃごちゃしたシステムだらけです 私達はインターネットで1908年のハーレー洗濯機と同じ地点に立っているのです 髪の毛が挟まる危険はありませんが 1908年と同じような 原始的な地点に私達はいるのです
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996: "All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble." 1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb." My mom hates this picture.
それが信じられれば「トラブルが続出するネットに 接続する価値なし」といった1996年の見出しは気にならないでしょう 1998年「アマゾンドットおしまい」1999年「アマゾンドット爆弾」 母はこの写真が大嫌いです
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very, very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine, then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are. And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us than there is behind us. And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right. This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917. It says: "Use your electricity for more than light." And I think that's where we are. We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
もし皆さんが 今私たちが1908年のハーレー洗濯機の地点にいると同感できるなら 皆さんはとても楽観的です そして私もそんなひとりです 今まで起こったイノベーションよりも 今後のイノベーションの方が多いと信じています これは1917年に世に出た シアーズの広告です 「電気を照明以外にも活用しよう」 これが私たちの今の地点なのです 実に初期の段階です ありがとうございました