When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier. You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know, who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff, and, of course, with technology it never is. So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient. I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet, with such an incredible last half a dozen years, that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it. A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things and what we're supposed to expect about the future depends on how we bucket things and how we categorize them.
Kada razmislite o elastičnosti i tehnologiji to je zapravo puno lakše. Danas ćete vidjeti neke druge govornike, to znam, koji će govoriti o lomljenju kostiju, i, naravno, s tehnologijom to nikada nije slučaj. Tako da je vrlo jednostavno, relativno govoreći, biti elastičan. Ako pogledamo na ono što se dogodilo na Internetu -- s takvim nevjerojatnim razvojem u posljednjih šest godina da je teško čak i osmisliti pravu analogiju za to. Puno toga kako odlučujemo, kako trebamo reagirati na stvari i ono što bismo trebali očekivati o budućnosti ovisi o tome kako promatramo stvari i kako ih kategoriziramo.
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush. It's easy to think of this analogy as very different from some of the other things you might pick. For one thing, both were very real. In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million worth of gold out of California. It was very real. The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to communicate with each other. It's a big deal. Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust. You keep going, and both things are lots of hype. I don't have to remind you of all the hype that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
I tako mislim da je najbliža analogija za boom-eksploziju da je ono što smo upravo prošli s Internetom, zlatna groznica. Jednostavno je misliti na ovu analogiju kao vrlo različitu od nekih drugih stvari koje ste mogli pokupiti. Međutim, obje su vrlo stvarne. 1849. u tom Gold Rush, su uzeli preko 700 milijuna dolara vrijednog zlata iz Kalifornije. To je bilo vrlo stvarno. Internet je također bio jako realan. Ovo je pravi način za ljude da komuniciraju jedni s drugima. To je velika stvar. Ogroman bum. Ogroman bum. Ogromna eksplozija. Ogromna eksplozija. Možete ići dalje, a obje su stvari jako naelektrizirane. Ne moram vas podsjećati na svu strku koja se događala s Internetom - poput GetRich.com.
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold." Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal. Some have 5,000. Many have more. A few bring out 100,000 dollars each. People would get very excited about this when they read these articles. "The Eldorado of the United States of America: the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California." And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly. So many people left what they were doing. And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
Istu stvar ste imali sa Zlatnom groznicom. "Zlato. Zlato. Zlato." 68 bogatih ljudi na parobrodu Portland. Hrpe žutog metala. Neki imaju pet tisuća. Mnogi imaju više. Nekoliko je donijelo po 100.000 dolara. Ljudi će se jako uzbuditi kada će čitati te članke. Eldorado iz Sjedinjenih Američkih Država. Otkriće neiscrpnih rudnika zlata u Kaliforniji. Paralele između Zlatne groznice i Internet groznice i dalje su vrlo snažne. Dakle, mnogo ljudi je ostavilo ono što su radili. A ono što će se dogoditi -- a Zlatna groznica je trajala godinama.
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news, they thought, "Ah, this isn't real." But they keep hearing about people getting rich, and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real. By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are. These are community affairs, by the way. Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States, and they would form companies. These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what, if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing, no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
Kada su ljudi na istočnoj obali 1849. prvi put počeli dobivati vijesti, mislili su: "Ah, to nije stvarno." Ali sve veći broj ljudi je postajao bogat, a zatim su u 1850. i dalje slušali o tome. I dalje su mislili kako to ne može biti stvarno. Do 1852. oni su razmišljali, "Jesam li ja najgluplji čovjek na Zemlji ako ne žurim u Kaliforniju?" I polako su shvaćali da jesu. To su poslovi zajednice, usput. Lokalne zajednice na istočnoj obali bi se okupile i formirale cijele timove od 10 ili 20 ljudi koji bi kenuli preko Sjedinjenih Država, i oni bi formirali poduzeća. To obično nisu bili osamljeni napori. No, bez obzira, ako ste bili odvjetnik ili bankar, ljudi bi vam rekli što su radili, bez obzira na vještine koje su imali kao tragači zlata.
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole, he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route. They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus, and then take another ship north. This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California. This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices. These are both very successful -- a physician in one case, a surgeon in the other. Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.
Ovaj tip na lijevoj strani, dr. Richard Beverley Cole, živio je u Philadelphiji, da bi uzeo put preko Paname. Uzeli bi brod dolje za Panamu, preko prevlake, i onda bi uzeli drugi brod sjeverno. Ovaj tip, dr. Toland, otišao je pokrivenim kolima za Kaliforniju. To ima svoje paralele, također. Liječnici su ostavljali svoje prakse. Oba su bila vrlo uspješna -- liječnik u jednom slučaju; kirurg u drugom. Ista stvar se dogodila na Internetu. Dobijete DrKoop.com.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship. The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon to go search for gold. So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships. They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere. You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever. And you saw some of the excesses that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened. The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers. Half of them deserted to go look for gold. And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
Tijekom Zlatne groznice, ljudi su doslovno skakali u brodove. Luka San Francisco je bila začepljena sa 600 brodova na svom vrhuncu jer bi brodovi došli do tamo a posada bi ih napustila kako bi išli tražiti zlato. Tako je doslovno bilo 600 kapetana i 600 brodova. Oni su pretvorili brodove u hotele, jer s njima nisu nigdje mogli otploviti. Imali ste dotcom groznicu. I imali ste Zlatnu groznicu. A vidjeli ste i neke od ekscesa koje je dotcom groznica stvorila i ista stvar se dogodila. Utvrda u San Franciscu u to vrijeme imala je oko 1.300 vojnika. Polovica od njih napustila su je i otišla tražiti zlato. A oni nisu pustili drugoj polovici da ide tražiti prvu polovicu jer su se bojali da se ovi ne bi vratili.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put: "The struggle between right and six dollars a month and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one." They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate. This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail. They loaded up their mules and their horses. And they didn't plan right. And they didn't know how far they would really have to go, and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff. In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died before they could get where they were going. It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
I jedan od vojnika pisao je kući, a ovo je rečenica koju je napisao: "Borba između dobra i 6 dolara mjesečno, i kriva i 75 dolara na dan je prilično teška." Imali su jako loše stope izgaranja u Zlatnoj groznici. Jako loše stope. Ovo je zapravo od Klondike Zlatne groznice. Ovo je White Pass Trail. Natrpali su svoje mazge i konje. I nisu dobro planirali. Jer nisu znali koliko daleko će ići, a zatrpali su konje s desecima kilograma stvari. U stvari, bilo je toliko loše da je većina konja umrla prije nego što bi došli, tamo gdje su krenuli. On je preimenovan u "Put mrtvih konja".
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time: "Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way, sometimes in bunches under the cliffs, with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above, sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march, often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive, a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade. The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere account for the myriads of ravens along the road. The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to, the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone, cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."
A kanadski ministar unutarnjih poslova je napisao ovo u to vrijeme: "Tisuće mrtvih konja leže po putu, ponekad u gomilama ispod stijene, sa sedlima i teretom na mjestu gdje su pali odozgo, ponekad su zapetljane mase, punile blatne rupe i stvarale jedini oslonac za naše siromašno opremljene životinje u kasu, često, sa žaljenjem kažem, iscrpljeni, ali još uvijek živ, zapravo nismo bili svjesni, sve dok se bijedni nesretnici nisu počeli pojavljivati ispod naših konja. Ispod nas posvuda gomile životinja bez očiju gozba za nebrojne gavrane uz cestu. Nehumanost kojoj je taj put svjedočio, tuga i patnja koju su proživjeli mnogi ne može se zamisliti. Svakako se ne može opisati."
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that, we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations. I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it. This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
I znate, bez mirisa koji bi pratio to, imali smo istu stvar s Internetom: jako loše računice sagorijevanja. Ju ću pustiti samo jednu od njih a vi ćete je zapamtiti. Ovo je promotivni spot koji je puštan tijekom Super Bowl-a 2000. godine.
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do. Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation? Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man. Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife? Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day. OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.
(Video): Nevjesta #1: Rekli ste da imate veliki izbor pozivnica. Činovnik: Ali imamo. Nevjesta #2; Ali zašto onda ona ima moju pozivnicu? Najavljivač: Ono što bi za neke bila mala stvar... Nevjesta #3: Ti si moj, mali čovječe. Najavljivač: Mogla bi biti velika stvar za vas. Muž #1: Je li to tvoja žena? Muž #2: Ne slijedećih 15 minuta. Najavljivač: Uostalom, to je vaš poseban dan. OurBeginning.com. Život je događaj, objavite to svijetu.
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
Jeff Bazos: Jako je teško shvatiti na što se odnosi ovaj spot.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
But they spent three and a half million dollars in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad, even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue. Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge, and I think rather severely. And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over. Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson at the present time who feel keenly disappointed. They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property, spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch have reached the coveted goal only to discover the fact that there is nothing here for them."
Ali oni su potrošili tri i pol milijuna dolara kako bi prikazali taj spot na Super Bowl-u 2000. Iako, su u to vrijeme, oni imali samo milijun dolara godišnjeg prihoda. Ovo je mjesto gdje se naša analogija sa Zlatnom groznicom počinje razilaziti, i ja mislim prilično snažno. A to je, u zlatnoj groznici, kada je gotovo, onda je gotovo. Tu je taj dečko: "Postoji puno ljudi u Dawsonu koji se u današnje vrijeme osjećaju žudno razočaranim. Prošli su tisuće kilometara opasnog puta, riskirajući život, zdravlje i imovinu, uložili mjesece najnapornijeg rada koje čovjek može izdržati i s očekivanjima koja su podignuta na najvišu razinu dosegnuli su željeni cilj da bi otkrili činjenicu da tamo nema ničega za njih."
And that was, of course, the very common story. Because when you take out that last piece of gold -- and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush -- the entire American river region, within two years -- every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies who used more sophisticated mining technologies started to take gold out of there. So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic and that analogy is the electric industry. And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry. With the electric industry you actually have to -- one of them is that they're both sort of thin, horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries. It's not a specific thing.
I to je, naravno, uobičajena priča. Jer kada uzmete posljednji komad zlata -- i oni su to napravili nevjerojatno brzo. Mislim, ako pogledate na Zlatnu groznicu 1849. -- cijela američka riječna regija, unutar dvije godine -- svaki kamen je preokrenut. I nakon toga, samo su velike kompanije koje koriste sofisticirane tehnologije kopanja započele su s vađenjem zlata tamo. Zato postoji puno bolja analogija koja vam omogućava da budete nevjerojatno optimistični a ta analogija je električne industrija. I ima jako puno sličnosti između Interneta i električne industrije. S električnom industrijom u stvari morate -- jedna od njih je da su obje na neki način mršave, horizontalne, omogućavajući slojeve koji idu preko puno različitih industrija. To nije specifična stvar.
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down. You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power. It's an incredible means of coordinating, in a very fine-grained way, information flows. There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity. And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on is sort of the golden age of appliances. The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb. So the light bulb is what wired the world. And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world. They were really thinking about -- they weren't putting electricity into the home; they were putting lighting into the home. And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
Ali električna struja je također jako, jako široka, tako da ćete je morati na neki način suziti. Znate, može se koristiti kao nevjerojatno sredstvo za prenošenje snage. To je nevjerojatno sredstvo koordiniranja, na jako sitno-zrnat način, informacije teku. Postoji gomila stvari koje su jako interesantne o električnoj struji. A dio električne revolucije na koji se ja želim usmjeriti jest zlatno doba uređaja. Najmoćnija aplikacija koja je pripremila svijet za uređaje bila je žarulja. Dakle žarulja je bila ta koja je spojila svijet. A oni nisu razmišljali o uređajima dok su povezivali svijet. Oni su u stvari mislili o -- oni nisu stavili električnu struju u domove. Oni su stavili osvjetljenje u domove. Ali stvarno -- to je dovelo do struje. Trebalo je puno vremena.
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out. All the streets had to be torn up. This is work going on down in lower Manhattan where they built some of the first electric power generating stations. And they're tearing up all the streets. The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric, which became General Electric, paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive. But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web. Because, remember, the Web got to stand on top of all this heavy infrastructure that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network. So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure -- I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994, when it was growing 2,300 percent a year. How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994 when people weren't really investing in the Web? Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
To je bilo ogromno -- kao što biste i očekivali -- veliki kapital se stvorio. Sve su ulice morale biti razrovane. Ovo su poslovi koji su se odvijali u donjem Manhattanu gdje su izgradili prve električne trafo stanice. A oni su razrovali sve ulice. Poduzeće Edison Electric Company, koje je postalo Edison General Electric koje je onda postalo General Electric, platilo je za svo to kopanje po ulicama. To je bilo nevjerojatno skupo. Ali to nije -- to nije dio koji je najsličniji Webu. Jer je, zapamtite, Web morao stajati na toj cijeloj, teškoj infrastrukturi koja je bila postavljena zbog mreže međunarodne telefonije. Dakle svo kabliranje i sva teška infrastruktura -- sada idem unazad do, na neki način, eksplozivnog dijela Interneta 1994. godine, kada je rastao 2.300% na godinu. Kako je mogao rasti 2.300% godišnje 1994. kada ljudi nisu stvarno investirali u Internet? To je zbog toga što je teška infrastruktura već bila postavljena.
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure, and then home appliances started coming into being. And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan -- this was the 1890 electric fan. And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted -- it depends how you want to measure it -- but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time. It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success. The electric iron, also very big. By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
Dakle žarulja je postavila infrastrukturu, i kućni uređaji su se počeli pojavljivati. I to je bila ogromna stvar. Prvi je bio električni fen -- to je bio električni fen iz 1890. I uređaji, zlatno doba uređaja je stvarno potrajalo -- ovisi kako to želite mjeriti -- ali to je između 40 i 60 godina, To traje dugi niz godina. Započinje oko 1890. A električni fen je ostvario ogroman uspjeh. Električna pegla, također ogroman uspjeh. Usput, ovo je početak parnice za azbest.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
There's asbestos under that handle there. This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum, from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car. So it wasn't a big seller. This was truly, truly an early-adopter product -- (Laughter) the 1905 Skinner Vacuum. But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds. Now, not all these things were highly successful.
Ovdje je azbest ispod te ručke tamo. Ovo je prvi usisivač, Skinner usisivač iz 1905. koji je proizvela kompanija Hoover. I težio je skoro 42 kg, bilo je potrebno dvoje ljudi za rukovanje i zauzimao je ¼ automobila. Dakle nije se sjajno prodavao. Ovo je stvarno bio proizvod koji je prerano izbačen -- (Smijeh) Skinner usisivač iz 1905. Ali tri godine kasnije, 1908. težio je 18 kg. Nisu sve te stvari bile jako uspješne.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on. People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties. These never really caught on either: the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller. This came in, like, six different colors.
Ovo je električna preša za kravate, koja se nikada nije uhvatila. Ljudi, pretpostavljam, su odlučili da neće gužvati svoje kravate. Ovaj se također nikada nije uhvatio na tržištu: električni grijač cipela i sušač. Nikada se nije prodavao na veliko. Ovaj se mogao kupiti, u šest različitih boja.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
I don't know why. But I thought, you know, sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention; maybe it's time to give this one another shot. So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this. We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really -- (Laughter) I thought that would really work, to give that another shot. Now, the toaster was huge because they used to make toast on open fires, and it took a lot of time and attention. I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is. They hadn't invented the electric socket yet. So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity. They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in. They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top. And you'd plug it in there.
Ne znam zašto. Ali mislim, znate, nekada jednostavno nije pravo vrijeme za izum; možda je vrijeme da ovome pružimo još jednu priliku. Tako sam mislio da bismo mogli napraviti Super Bowl spot za ovo. Trebali bismo pravog partnera. I to sam stvarno razmišljao -- (Smijeh) mislio sam da bi upalilo, da pokušamo ponovno. Toster je bio ogroman uspjeh jer su do tada radili tost na vatri na otvorenom, i trebalo mu je puno vremena i pažnje. Želim istaknuti jednu stvar. To je -- vi znate o čemu se radi. Još nisu izmislili električnu utičnicu. To je bilo -- zapamtite, nisu povezali kuće sa strujom. Povezali su ih zbog svjetla. Tako vaši -- vaši uređaji bi se uključili. Svaka soba je imala utičnicu za žarulju na vrhu. I onda biste to tamo uključili.
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World, you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture. All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb if you wanted to plug in an appliance. The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine. Now, this was an object of much envy and lust. Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines. On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water. And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning. And it would clean your clothes. This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here, put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric wringer. And this was a big deal. You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain. And you'd run a long cord into the house where you could screw it into your light socket.
U stvari, ako ste vidjeli ringišpil u Disney svijetu, vidjeli ste to. Ovdje su kablovi izlazili iz tog postolja za svjetlo. Svi uređaji uključeni tamo. I samo odvrnete svoju žarulju ako želite uključiti uređaj. Slijedeća stvar koja je postigla veliki uspjeh, bio je stroj za pranje. Dakle, to je bio predmet velike zavisti i požude. Svi su željeli te električne strojeve za pranje. S lijeve strane, to je sapunasta voda. I tamo se nalazi rotor -- koji ovaj motor vrti. I može očistiti vašu odjeću. Ovo je čista voda za ispiranje. Tako biste uzeli odjeću ovdje, stavili ovdje, i onda biste provukli odjeću kroz električnu alku. I to je bila velika stvar. Držali biste to na svom trijemu. Bilo je malo neuredno i na neki način bolno. I imali biste dugačku sajlu u kući kako biste je mogli priključiti na utičnicu za svjetlo.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation, because they hadn't invented the off switch. That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances -- because it didn't make any sense. I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket. So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it. That's what you did. You didn't turn it off. And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either, so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device. And there are -- when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices. And they couldn't yank the cord out because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
I to je na neki način važna točka u mojoj prezentaciji, jer nisu izmislili prekidač za isključivanje. To je došlo bitno kasnije -- prekidač na uređajima -- jer nije imalo nikakvog smisla. Mislim, niste željeli da vam ta stvar začepi utičnicu za svjetlo. Tako ste, kada biste bili gotovi, odvrnuli stvar. To ste radili. Niste je isključili na prekidaču. Kao što sam ranije rekao, nisu izmislili električni izlaz, tako je stroj za pranje bio posebno opasan uređaj. A ovdje su -- kada ovo istražujete, postoje jezivi opisi ljudi čija se kosa ili odjeća uhvatila u te uređaje. A oni nisu mogli samo izvući kabel jer je bio zašarafljen u utičnici za svjetlo u kući.
(Laughter) And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good. And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors to be plugging things into a light socket like this. But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors, I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room. This is a total kludge, if you ask me. First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket -- (Laughter) and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
(Smijeh) I nije postojao prekidač, što nije bilo dobro. I možda mislite kako je to bilo nevjerojatno glupo od naših predaka zavrtati ovako stvari u utičnicu za svjetlo. Ali, znate, prije nego što odem predaleko u osuđivanju naših predaka, mislio sam vam pokazati: ovo je moja konferencijska soba. Ovo je prilično nespretno, ako mene pitate. Prije svega, ovo je instalirano naopačke. Ova utičnica za svjetlo -- (Smijeh) i tako kabel stalno ispada, tako da sam ga zalijepio.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one. This is what it looks like under my desk. I took this picture just two days ago. So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
Ovo bi trebalo -- nemojte ni da počnem. Ali ovo nije najgori. Ovako izgleda ispod mog stola. Ovo sam slikao prije samo dva dana. Tako da nismo baš puno napredovali od 1908.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
It's a total, total mess. And, you know, we think it's getting better, but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
To je potpuni, potpuni nered. I, znate, mislimo da napredujemo, ali jeste li pokušali ikada instalirati 802.11 sami?
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
I challenge you to try. It's very hard. I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science -- this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter) And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house. Try to get DSL installed in your house. The engineers who do it everyday can't do it. They have to -- typically, they come three times. And one friend of mine was telling me a story: not only did they get there and have to wait, but then the engineers, when they finally did get there, for the third time, they had to call somebody. And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone because then they had to wait on hold for an hour to talk to somebody to give them an access code after they got there. So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
Izazivam vas da pokušate. Jako je teško. Znam doktore iz računalnih znanosti -- taj proces ih je doveo do suza, potpunog očaja. A to je ako pretpostavimo da imate DSL kod kuće. Pokušaje instalirati DSL u svojoj kući. Inžinjeri koji to rade svakodnevno ne mogu to napraviti. Oni moraju -- tipično dolaze tri puta. A jedan moj prijatelj mi je ispričao priču. Ne samo da su oni došli tamo i morali čekati, ali onda su inžinjeri, nakon što su konačno došli, treći puta, morali su nazvati nekoga. I bili su stvarno sretni što taj čovjek ima telefon sa zvučnikom jer su ih stavili na čekanje jedan sat kako bi mogli razgovarati s nekime tko im je dao pristupni kod nakon što su došli. Dakle nismo -- prilično smo nespretni.
By the way, DSL is a kludge. I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed for the purpose it's being put to -- you know it's the whole thing -- we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point. Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush, then you'd be pretty depressed right now because the last nugget of gold would be gone. But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget. Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
Usput, DSL je nered. Mislim, to je zapletena parica od bakra koja nikada nije bila dizajnirana za svrhu koja joj je namjenjena. Znate to je cijela stvar. Mi smo jako, jako primitivni. I to je nekakav zaključak. Jer, znate, elastičnost -- ako razmišljate o njoj u uvjetima Zlatne groznice, onda biste bili prilično depresivni sada jer bi zadnji grumen zlata otišao. Ali dobra stvar je, s inovacijom, nema zadnjeg grumena. Svaka nova stvar stvara dva nova pitanja i dvije nove prilike.
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are -- this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge -- and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web -- but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff -- we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet. That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it, but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are. We're in 1908.
I ako vjerujete u to, onda vjerujete da tamo gdje smo sada -- ovo je ono što ja mislim: vjerujem da tamo gdje smo s nevjerojatnom petljancijom -- a nisam pričao o korisničkom sučelju na Internetu. Ali tamo ima toliko puno petljancije, toliko puno strašnih stvari, da se nalazimo s Internetom u 1908. godini, na razini Hurley stroja za pranje. To je gdje se nalazimo. Ne hvata nam se kosa, ali to je razina primitivnosti na kojoj se nalazimo. Mi smo u 1908.
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996: "All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble." 1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb." My mom hates this picture.
I vjerujem kako vas stvari poput ove ne bi smetale. Ovo je 1996. godina: "Sve zbrojene negativnosti vam čine on-line iskustvo nepotrebnom gnjavažom." 1998.: "Amazon tost". U 1999.: "Amazon bomba". Moja mama mrzi ovu sliku.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very, very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine, then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are. And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us than there is behind us. And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right. This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917. It says: "Use your electricity for more than light." And I think that's where we are. We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
Ona -- ali znate, ako stvarno vjerujete kako je to pravi, pravi početak, ako vjerujete kako je ovo 1908. Hurley-jev stroj za pranje, onda ste jako optimistični. A ja ne mislim da se tu nalazimo. I mislim kako je ispred nas još puno više inovacija nego što je iza nas. A u 1917., Sears -- želim ovo točno pokazati. Ovo je promotivni spot koji se vrtio 1917. Kaže: "Koristite svoju struju za više od svjetla." A ja mislim da se upravo tu nalazimo. Jako je, jako rano. Hvala vam puno.