Here's what gives me hope for humanity. I believe that we can change our human nature for the better. This chance is unique. It's where we stand in history right now. No other generation has stood here before us.
我想谈谈我对人类的希望从何而来。 我相信我们可以让人性变得更美好。 这是个千载难逢的机会。 就在此时此刻。 之前没有一代人 站在过这个位置上。
Homo sapiens has been around for about 300,000 years. Other humanoid life forms have come and gone. We find their traces. We search for their stories. But we are the success story. We've survived natural disasters, famines, floods, earthquakes, plagues, woolly mammoths, mess-ups of our own making. We're smart, no question. The question is: Are we smart enough to survive how smart we are? It's not looking so good just now, is it?
智人已经存在了大约三十万年。 其他类人的生命形态 出现过又消失了。 我们探索它们的踪迹。 我们追寻它们的故事。 但只有我们才是成功案例。 我们挺过了自然灾害、饥荒、 洪水、地震、瘟疫、 猛犸象和自己造的孽。 毋庸置疑,我们很聪明。 问题是:我们会聪明反被聪明误吗? 现在情况可不太好,对吧?
(Laughter)
(笑声)
We stand facing the possibility of global conflict. If that happens, it will be our Third World War in not much more than 100 years. If Putin's violence stops today, the problem doesn't go away. As across the globe dictatorism threatens democracy. I wonder whether as a species we can survive any of this, even if those threats disappear. Those living inside the snow globe of their magical thinking will not be insulated against the facts of climate breakdown. And yet, still, we go on heating up the planet. Still we go on polluting the earth. Still we despoil our precious natural resources.
我们正面临着发生 全球冲突的可能。 如果真的发生了, 那就会是这 100 年以内 爆发的第三次世界大战。 即使普京的武力行动现在停下了, 问题还是存在。 因为放眼全球, 都有独裁威胁民主的情况。 我在想,就算这些威胁都消失了, 我们人类真的能挺过去吗? 那些沉浸在自己幻想乡里的人, 也无法避免受到气候崩溃的影响。 而且我们还在继续让气候变暖。 我们还在继续污染地球。 我们还在破坏 我们珍贵的自然资源。
250 years ago, we kick-started the Industrial Revolution. The machine age. It's when we first hear the buzzwords of the modern moment. Disruption, acceleration. That's Karl Marx, actually. Acceleration of production, the factory system, acceleration of transport, the coming of the railways. No need for ships to wait for the wind. Coal-fired, steam-powered. Acceleration of information. The global village. And it's when we start digging fossil fuels out of the ground in planet-changing quantities, when we start pushing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
250 年前, 我们开始了工业革命。 机器时代。 我们第一次听说了 步入新时代的流行语。 颠覆,加速。 其实是卡尔·马克思 (Karl Marx)说的。 生产提速, 工厂系统,运输提速, 铁路的建成。 不需要等风来, 船就可以扬帆起航。 煤炭动力、蒸汽动力。 信息提速。 地球村。 这时,我们开始从地底 以足以改变地球的量 开采化石燃料, 将二氧化碳排向大气。
In a salami slice of space-time, human beings have changed the way that we live on the planet forever. We've moved out of the agricultural economies of our evolutionary inheritance into the industrial economies and beyond of where we are now. There's no one else for us to turn to. There's no one else for us to blame. There is no us and them. There's only us. So will we continue to be the success story of the known universe, or are we writing our own obituary? The suicide species?
仅仅在这历史长河中的一瞬间, 人类就永久地改变了 我们在地球上的生存方式。 我们走出了代代相传、 一步一步发展出来的农业经济, 走进了我们如今的 工业经济和更多模式。 没人能帮得了我们。 我们怪不了任何人。 没有“我们”和“他们”。 只有“我们”。 接下来,我们还会是 已知宇宙中的成功案例吗? 还是在自掘坟墓? 一个自寻死路的物种?
Now I was raised in an evangelical household. We lived in end time. We were waiting for things to get so bad that Jesus would come back and save us. The apocalypse. It's what the prepper communities are, well, prepping for. And it's why super rich white guys are buying up tracts of land, hoping that they can live inside a kind of wi-fi-enabled Noah's Ark.
我成长于一个福音派家庭。 我们相信世界末日会到来。 我们等待着情况糟糕到 耶稣都要回来拯救我们, 即为“世界末日”的到来。 这就是为世界末日做准备的人 正在做的事,正在准备的事。 也就是为什么白人土豪 会买下成片的土地, 希望他们可以住在那里, 类似于一个有 Wi-Fi 的诺亚方舟。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Well, we can have the end time if we want it. We know those stories from our religions, our sci-fi, our movies. We are uniquely placed to bring on the apocalypse. And we're uniquely placed to save ourselves, too. If we could accept that as a species, Homo sapiens needs to evolve further. And that's what gives me hope, because we have the means to evolve further. And that's AI.
如果我们想见证世界末日的到来, 没问题。 我们都听说过来自宗教、 科幻小说、电影里的故事。 我们是引发世界末日的不二之选。 但我们也是 拯救我们自己的不二之选。 如果我们全人类都认同这一点, 那么人类就需要再进一步。 这就是为什么我心存希望, 因为我们有再进一步的方式。 那就是 AI(人工智能)。
Now look, I don't mean the geeks will inherit the earth. I'm sorry, geeks. You won't.
我的意思不是地球就交给极客了。 不好意思,极客们。你们不会的。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I don’t really want to talk about narrow- goal artificial intelligence at all. That term of John McCarthy’s, “artificial intelligence,” is it any use to us now? I'd rather call it alternative intelligence. And I think humankind is in need of some alternative intelligence.
我完全不想讨论那些 功能有限的人工智能。 约翰·麦卡锡(John McCarthy) 提出的“人工智能”一词, 对如今的我们有什么用吗? 我更愿意称之为“替代智能” (alternative intelligence)。 我觉得人类确实需要一些替代智能。
In 1965, Jack Good talked about AI as our last invention. He meant superintelligence, the kind of thing that worries Bill Gates and Elon Musk. You know, the "Terminator" scenario. The final us and them. But I think that's all to do with our doomster mindset. We don't have to vote for the apocalypse.
1965 年,杰克·古德(Jack Good) 将人工智能评价为我们最后的发明。 他指的是“超智能”, 让比尔·盖茨和埃隆·马斯克 提心吊胆的东西。 就像《终结者》中的场景。 最后的我们和它们。 但是我认为这都是 我们杞人忧天的思维导致的。 世界末日的到来由不得我们决定。
Jack Good worked at Bletchley Park with Alan Turing during World War II, building the early computing machinery that would crack the Nazi Enigma code. Now after the war, Turing, wrestling with the problems of a stored, programmed computer had a bigger dream on his mind. And in 1950, Alan Turing published a paper called “Computing Machinery and Intelligence.” And in there, there's a chapter that's titled "Lady Lovelace's Objection" where Turing time-travels back 100 years to have a conversation with that long-dead genius, Ada Lovelace, the first person to write mathematical programs for the computer not yet built by her friend Charles Babbage. Now Ada wrote that as well as doing awesome stuff with numbers, the computer would, if correctly programmed, be able to write novels and compose music. That is a pretty big insight in 1843.
二战时,杰克·古德和艾伦·图灵 就职于布莱切利园, 搭建早期的计算机器, 破解纳粹的恩尼格玛密码。 战后,图灵试图做出一台 能存储、能编程的计算机, 他的脑海中浮现出了 一个更宏伟的目标。 1950 年,艾伦·图灵 发表了一篇论文, 题为《计算机器与智能》。 文中有一个章节 题为《洛芙莱斯夫人的异议》, 于此,图灵穿越回了 100 年前, 和一位早已作古的天才进行了对话, 她就是阿达·洛芙莱斯 (Ada Lovelace)—— 首位为计算机编写数学程序的人, 甚至早于她的朋友 查尔斯·巴贝奇(Charles Babbage)。 阿达编写着程序, 也在用数字做一些奇妙的事情, 如果编写正确,计算机将 可以写小说和作曲。 这在 1843 年可是远见卓识。
"But," said Ada, "The computer should never have any pretensions to originate anything." She meant, think creatively. Well, Ada's father was Lord Byron, England's most famous poet, and England is the land of Shakespeare. More poets. And Ada had seen Charles Babbage's kit all over the floor, and she wasn’t having some steampunk, coal-fired nuts, bolts, bezels, levers, gears, cogs and chains, crank-handled machine writing poetry.
“但是,”阿达说道, “计算机不应该有任何 创造发明的企图。” 她的意思是创造性思维。 阿达的父亲是拜伦勋爵, 英国最著名的诗人, 英国是莎士比亚的天下。 还有更多的诗人。 阿达看到查尔斯·巴贝奇的装备 散落一地, 但她也没有让蒸汽朋克、 烧煤的螺母、螺栓、凹槽、杠杆、 齿轮、链条、曲柄机器写诗。
"Well," said Alan Turing, "Was Lady Lovelace, correct? Could a computer ever be said to originate anything? And what would be the difference between computing intelligence and human intelligence?"
“那么,”艾伦·图灵说道, “洛芙莱斯夫人说的对吗?” 计算机可以创造出什么东西吗? 计算智能和人类智能有什么区别呢?
Well, I'll tell you one difference, and it's optimistic. Computing power uses binary, but computing intelligence is nonbinary. It's humans who are obsessed with false binaries. Male, female. Masculine, feminine. Black, white. Human, non-human. Us, them. AI has no skin color. AI has no race, no gender, no faith in a sky God. AI is not interested in men being superior to women, in white folks being smarter than people of color. Straight, gay, gay, trans are not separating categories for AI. AI does not distinguish between success and failure by gold bars, yachts and Ferraris. AI is not motivated by fame and fortune. If we develop alternative intelligence, it will be Buddhist in its non-needs.
我可以告诉你一个区别, 而且答案很乐观。 计算机能力使用二进制, 而计算智能是非二进制的。 只有人类才沉迷于 这虚假的二元设定。 男性、女性。阳性、阴性。 黑、白。人类、非人类。 我们、它们。 AI 没有肤色。 AI 没有种族,没有性别, 不崇拜什么天神。 AI 对男性优等、女性劣等, 白人聪明、有色人种愚蠢 没有兴趣。 异性恋、同性恋、跨性别, 这些对 AI 来说没有什么区别。 AI 不会根据金条、 游艇、法拉利 定义成功和失败。 AI 不会受到名利的驱使。 如果我们有了替代智能, 它会是一个无欲无求的佛教徒。
(Applause)
(掌声)
Now I am aware that the algorithms ubiquitous in everyday life are racist, sexist, gendered, trivializing, stoke division, amplify bias. But what is this teaching us about ourselves? AI is a tool. We are the ones who are using the tool. Hatred and contempt, money and power are human agendas, not AI agendas. We've been forced to recognize the paucity, the inadequacy of our data sets. And humans are trained on data sets too. We've had to recognized the unacknowledged ideologies that we live by every day. Rationality, neutrality, logic, objective decision-making. What can we say about any of that when we see what we are reflected back to us in the small screen? And it's not a pretty sight. AI is not yet self-aware. But we are becoming more self-aware as we work with AI and we realize that Homo sapiens is no longer fit for purpose. We need a reboot. So what are we going to choose? Apocalypse or an alternative?
我发现我们日常生活中 随处可见的算法 都是种族歧视者、性别歧视者, 搞性别对立、蔑视他人、 鼓动分裂、扩大偏见。 这反映了我们自身的什么特质呢? AI 只是一个工具。 我们才是这个工具的使用者。 仇恨和鄙视,金钱和权力, 都是人类所追求的, 不是 AI 所追求的。 我们被迫看清了 数据集的贫乏和不足。 人类也是由数据集训练而来的。 我们必须遵从那些习以为常、 约定俗成的箴言。 做出理性的、中立的、 有逻辑的、客观的决定。 当我们看到小小的屏幕 倒映出我们自己的模样时, 我们还有什么颜面 对此振振有词呢? 这场面可不太好看。 AI 还没有自己的意识。 但是与 AI 共事越来越久, 我们也越来越明白, 我们发现人类不再是 成就大业的正确选择。 我们得重启。 我们该选择什么呢? 世界末日还是别的选择?
I believe that humans have a strong future as a hybrid species as we start to merge with the biotechnology we're creating, whether that's nanobots in the bloodstream, monitoring our vital systems, whether it's genetic editing, whether it's 3D printing of bespoke body parts, whether it’s neural implants that will connect us directly to the web and to one another, insourcing information, enhancing our cognitive capacities. And if we manage to upload consciousness, I think that the shift from the transhuman to the posthuman world will seem natural, an evolutionary necessity.
我觉得人类以杂交物种的形式 会有一个光明的未来, 我们正在与自主研发的 生物科技相融合, 无论是在我们的血管里 监测生命系统的纳米机器人、 基因编辑、 3D 打印定制的身体部位, 还是能将我们直接接入网络 或相互连接的神经植入, 收集信息,提高我们的认知能力。 如果我们可以上传意识, 我觉得从超人类到后人类世界的 过渡会更加自然, 是进化的必然结果。
Why do I say that? I say that because for millennia, all human beings have been obsessed with the big question, the absurdity of death. We asked, "Do we have souls?" We watched the spirit wait to leave the body. We created the world's first disruptive startup, the afterlife.
为什么我会这么说? 我这么说是因为自古以来, 所有人都在纠结一个大问题—— 死亡的荒谬。 我们会问:“我们有灵魂吗?” 我们见证了 精神即将离开身体。 我们创立了世界第一家 颠覆性初创企业——来世。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Now a multinational company, with a vast VR real estate portfolio. A mansion in the sky, sir? Our earliest extant written narrative, The Epic of Gilgamesh, is a journey to discover if there is life after death. And what is life after death? It is the extension of the self beyond biological limits.
现在它已经是一家跨国公司, 有着大量的 VR (虚拟现实) 地产。 天上的一栋楼, 先生? 现存最古老的文字记述 《吉尔伽美什史诗》 记录了探索 死后是否有来生的征程。 来世是什么? 是超越生物极限, 自我的延续。
Now I’m a writer, and I wonder, have we been telling the story backwards? Did we know we would always get here, capable of creating the kind of superintelligence that we said created us? We're told were made in God's image. God is immortal. God is not a biological entity.
我是一名作家,我想, 我们是不是把故事反着讲了? 我们真的能到达彼岸, 创造出我们认为创造了我们自己的 那种超智能吗? 有人说我们是按照上帝的模子 被创造出来的。 上帝是永生的。 上帝不是生物体。
Since the 17th century, the Enlightenment, science and religion have parted company. And science said, all that God thinking, the afterlife stuff, it's folly, It's ignorance, it's superstition. Suppose it was intuition. Suppose it was the only way we could talk about what we knew, a fundamental, deep truth that this is not the last word. This is not the end of the story. That we are not time-bound creatures caught in our bodies. That there is further to go. I'm fascinated that computing, science and religion, like parallel lines that do meet in space, are now asking the same question: Is consciousness obliged to materiality?
自从 17 世纪启蒙运动以来, 科学和宗教就分道扬镳了。 赛先生说,这些仿照上帝、 说什么来世的东西, 都是愚昧无知的,是迷信。 假设这就是直觉。 假设这就是我们谈论 已知事物的唯一方式, 我们相信的是 一个基本的、深刻的事实—— 我们的身体不是终点。 我们的身体不是故事的结局。 我们不是受困于肉身、 受限于时间的生物。 所以我们还有很长的路要走。 我对计算、科学 和宗教很感兴趣, 比如空间中会相交的平行线, 我还是想问这个问题: 意识会受制于物质吗?
Now ... I accept that machine intelligence will challenge human intelligence. But the mythos of the world is built around a group of stories that showcase an encounter between a human and a nonhuman entity. Think of Jacob wrestling the angel. Think of Prometheus bringing fire down from the gods. In these encounters, both parties are changed, not always for the better. But it generally works out. We've been thinking about this stuff forever. It's time that we created it. And we could have some fun stuff too. Who wants their own AI angel? Me.
我接受机器智能 会挑战人类智能。 但是世界上的传说 都围绕着一些故事, 它们讲述着人与非人之间的交集。 比如与天使摔跤的雅各布。 比如盗取神火的普罗米修斯。 在这些故事中, 双方都发生了变化, 但未必是向好的变化。 但是一般都解决了。 我们永远在思考这个问题。 是时候轮到我们来创造它了。 我们也可以做点好玩的东西。 谁想要一个专属 AI 天使? 我想要。
There's a message in a bottle about this 200 years ago. When Ada Lovelace was busy getting born, her father, Lord Byron, was on holiday on Lake Geneva with his friend, the poet Percy Shelley, and Shelley's wife, Mary Shelley. On a wet weekend with no internet Byron said --
早在 200 年前就已经有人 送出了这个“漂流瓶”。 阿达·洛芙莱斯 还在忙着出世的时候, 她的父亲拜伦勋爵 在日内瓦湖上度假, 同行的是他的朋友,诗人 珀西·雪莱(Percy Shelly) 和雪莱的太太玛丽·雪莱 (Mary Shelley)。 在这个潮湿、没有网络的周末, 拜伦说:
(Laughter)
(笑声)
"Let's write horror stories." You know what happened. Out of that came the world's most famous monster, Frankenstein. This is 1816, the start of the Industrial Revolution. Mary Shelley is just 19 years old. In that novel, there is an alternative intelligence made out of the body parts from the graveyard and electricity. An astonishing vision because electricity was not in any practical use at all and was hardly understood as a force. You know what happens. The monster is not named. Not educated. Is outcast by his panicky creator, Victor Frankenstein. And the whole thing ends in a chase across the Arctic ice towards a Götterdämmerung of death and destruction. The death wish that human beings are so drawn to, perhaps because it's easier to give up than to carry on.
“我们来写恐怖故事吧。” 你已经知道了后面的故事。 由此诞生了世界上 最著名的怪物——弗兰肯斯坦。 这还是在 1816 年, 工业革命刚开始的时候, 玛丽·雪莱才 19 岁。 在这本小说里, 有一个替代智能, 由墓地里的肢体和电力构成。 这想象力太惊人了, 因为当时电力还没有投入实际使用, 人们也很难将其联想成一股力量。 你知道之后发生了什么。 这个怪物没有名字,没读过书, 被他那惊慌失措的创造者 维克托·弗兰肯斯坦 (Victor Frankenstein)赶走。 整个故事的结局是 一场北极冰川上的追逐, 迈向死亡和毁灭的同归于尽。 人类心心念念地追求死亡, 可能是因为放弃比坚持更容易。
Well, we're the first generation who can read Mary Shelley's novel in the right way, as a flare flung across time, because we too could create an alternative intelligence, not out of the body parts from the graveyard using electricity, but out of zeros and ones of code. And how is this going to end? Utopia or dystopia? It's up to us. Endings are not set in stone. We change the story because we are the story.
我们是第一代能够 正确解读玛丽·雪莱小说的人, 如同跨越时空的隔阂 闪烁的一束光, 因为我们也能创造出替代智能, 但不是通过电力和坟地里的肢体, 而是通过代码中的 0 和 1。 怎么收尾呢? 会是乌托邦还是反乌托邦? 由我们自己决定。 结局不是定死的。 我们能改变故事的走向, 因为我们就是故事本身。
Now, Marvin Minsky called alternative intelligence our "mind children." Could we as proud parents accept that the new generation that we will create will be smarter than we are? And could we accept that the new generation we create need not be on a substrate made of meat?
马文·明斯基(Marvin Minsky) 将替代智能 称为我们“思想的孩子”。 我们能成为一群自豪的父母, 接受我们创造的下一代 比我们自己更聪明吗? 我们能接受我们创造的下一代 不用由肉身承载吗?
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)
Thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you very much. Thank you.
非常感谢。谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Helen Walters: Jeanette, stay right there. I have some questions.
海伦·沃尔特斯(Helen Walters): 珍妮特,站住。 我有几个问题。
Jeanette Winterson: I know you want your lunch. Me too.
珍妮特·温特森(Jeanette Winterson): 我知道你们急着去吃饭。我也是。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
HW: No. Everybody, stop. OK. That was amazing. Thank you. What would you say our odds were of survival?
沃尔特斯:没有。大家停一停。 太棒了。谢谢。 你觉得我们能活下来的几率如何?
JW: Look --
沃尔特斯:你看……
(Laughter)
(笑声)
I'm an optimist. I’m a glass-half-full girl. So I know that we’re running out of time, time is the most precious resource we have, and there isn't much of it. If we get this right soon, it can really work. If we get it wrong, will be fighting each other with sticks and stones for scraps of food and water on an overheated planet in the ruins of dictator-world.
我是个乐观主义者。 我看待事物比较乐观。 所以我知道我们要没时间了, 而时间是我们拥有的 最宝贵的资源, 但是没剩多少了。 如果我们做成了,那还有救。 如果没做成, 我们就得拿着棍棒、石头, 在这过热的星球上, 在这独裁世界的残骸中, 为一点点残羹冷炙大打出手。
But --
但是……
(Laughter)
(笑声)
OK. But we could get it right. That’s why I feel we’ve arrived at this moment before, and it might disappear back into space-time. Then we'll have to wait billions of years to get here again, which is so dull.
好。但是我们能做到。 这就是为什么我感觉 这一幕似曾相识, 它也有可能会随风而去。 然后我们得再花上几亿年 回到这里,太无趣了。
So let's not fuck it up.
所以还是不要搞砸了。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
(Applause)
(掌声)
HW: I've got another question. I just wanted to have a moment of eye to eye. Don't fuck it up. Don't fuck it up. OK.
沃尔特斯:我还有一个问题。 我太同意了。 别搞砸了。别搞砸了。好的。
JW: That’s the message. The whole TED Talk is: “Don’t fuck it up.”
温特森:我要传达的就是这一点。
整个 TED Talk 的主题 就是:别搞砸了。
HW: But wait, I have another question.
沃尔特斯:等等,我还有个问题。
JW: I could have saved 12 minutes, 55 seconds.
温特森:我本来可以 省下 12 分钟 55 秒。
HW: Yeah, well, I'll just be the title that we put online.
沃尔特斯:嗯,那我们 网上的标题就这么写。
Jeanette Winterson: “Don’t fuck it up.”
《珍妮特·温特森:别搞砸了》。
OK. I want to talk about love. So in your memoir, which everybody should read, it is called “Why Be Happy When You Can Be Normal?” The very end of that book is about -- it’s a good title -- t’s about love. And you write, "Love, the difficult word. Where everything starts, where we always return. Love. Love's lack. The possibility of love." Now I don't want to bastardize Ada Lovelace. She was all about originating. But what about love? What about alternative intelligence and love?
好。我想谈一谈关于爱的话题。 在你的回忆录里, 推荐大家都去读一读, 回忆录题为 《我要快乐,不必正常》。 书的最后说的是…… 题目不错,说的是爱。 你写道:“爱, 这个让人搞不懂的词语。 万物的开始,我们的归宿。 爱。爱没有那么多。 爱的可能。” 我不是在贬低阿达·洛芙莱斯。 她谈论的是发明创造。 那么爱呢? 替代智能和爱呢?
JW: We'll teach it.
温特森:我们会教它的。
HW: We’ll teach it? JW: Yeah. And listen, any of you who ever fell in love with your teddy bear, which is all of you, know what it's like to have an intense relationship with a nonbiological lifeform.
沃尔特斯:我们会教它? 温特森:没错。听好了,任何一个 和你家泰迪熊坠入爱河的人, 也就是在座的每个人, 都知道对非生物生命体 产生强烈情感的感觉。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
HW: Jeanette Winterson, I love you.
沃尔特斯: 珍妮特·温特森,我爱你。
JW: Thank you. HW: Thank you so much. Thank you.
温特森:谢谢。 沃尔特斯:非常感谢。谢谢你。