So let me start by taking you back, back into the mists of your memory to perhaps the most anticipated year in your life, but certainly the most anticipated year in all human history: the year 2000. Remember that? Y2K, the dotcom bubble, stressing about whose party you're going to go to as the clock strikes midnight, before the champagne goes flat, and then there's that inchoate yearning that was felt, I think, by many, that the millennium, that the year 2000, should mean more, more than just a two and some zeroes.
Dopustite da vas vratim natrag kroz maglu vašeg sjećanja u možda najiščekivaniju godinu u vašem životu, ali zasigurno najiščekivaniju godinu u povijesti čovječanstva: 2000. godinu. Sjećate li je se? Y2K ili problem 2000- godine, dot-com bubble, zabrinjavanje oko toga na čijoj ćete zabavi biti kada otkuca ponoć, prije nego šampanjac ishlapi, a zatim je započela čežnja koju su, smatram, osjetili mnogi, za tim da novi milenij, 2000. godina trebala značiti više od jedne dvojke i nekoliko nula.
Well, amazingly, for once, our world leaders actually lived up to that millennium moment and back in 2000 agreed to some pretty extraordinary stuff: visionary, measurable, long-term targets called the Millennium Development Goals.
Pa, začudo, barem ovaj put naši su svjetski vođe uspjeli ispuniti taj milenijski trenutak te su 2000. godine učinili neke prilično neuobičajene stvari: vizionarske, mjerljive, dugoročne ciljeve nazvane "Milenijski ciljevi razvoja".
Now, I'm sure you all keep a copy of the goals under your pillow, or by the bedside table, but just in case you don't, and your memory needs some jogging, the deal agreed then goes like this: developing countries promised to at least halve extreme poverty, hunger and deaths from disease, alongside some other targets, by 2015, and developed nations promised to help them get that done by dropping debts, increasing smart aid, and trade reform.
Siguran sam da svi čuvate primjerak tih ciljeva ispod jastuka ili na noćnom ormariću, ali za slučaj da ih ipak nemate, a sjećanje vam treba malo osvježiti, ovo su ti ciljevi: zemljama u razvoju obećano je smanjiiti siromaštvo, glad i smrt od bolesti barem za pola, uz neke druge ciljeve do 2015. Razvijene zemlje obećale su im pomoći smanjujući im dug, povećavajući pomoć te reformirajući trgovinu.
Well, we're approaching 2015, so we'd better assess, how are we doing on these goals? But we've also got to decide, do we like such global goals? Some people don't. And if we like them, we've got to decide what we want to do on these goals going forward. What does the world want to do together? We've got to decide a process by which we decide.
Približavamo se 2015. pa bismo trebali procijeniti kako nam ide zasad. Također trebamo procijeniti sviđaju li nam se takvi globalni ciljevi. Nekim ljudima se ne sviđaju. Ako se nama sviđaju, trebamo odlučiti što želimo učiniti da bismo pomogli postizanju ovih ciljeva. Što to svijet želi učiniti zajedno? Moramo odlučiti o procesu kojim ćemo odlučivati.
Well, I definitely think these goals are worth building on and seeing through, and here's just a few reasons why. Incredible partnerships between the private sector, political leaders, philanthropists and amazing grassroots activists across the developing world, but also 250,000 people marched in the streets of Edinburgh outside this very building for Make Poverty History.
Mislim da vrijedi graditi na ovim ciljevima i postići ih i evo nekoliko razloga zašto. Nevjerojatno partnerstvo privatnog sektora, političkih vođa, filantropa sa zadivljujućim interesnim aktivistima u zemljama u razvoju, ali i 250,000 ljudi koji su marširali ulicama Edinburgha ispred upravo ove zgrade za projekt "Make Poverty History".
All together, they achieved these results: increased the number of people on anti-retrovirals, life-saving anti-AIDS drugs; nearly halved deaths from malaria; vaccinated so many that 5.4 million lives will be saved. And combined, this is going to result in two million fewer children dying every year, last year, than in the year 2000. That's 5,000 fewer kids dying every day, ten times you lot not dead every day, because of all of these partnerships. So I think this is amazing living proof of progress that more people should know about, but the challenge of communicating this kind of good news is probably the subject of a different TEDTalk. Anyway, for now, anyone involved in getting these results, thank you. I think this proved these goals are worth it.
Kad se sve to zbroji, postigli su ove rezultate: povećao se broj ljudi na anti-retrovirusnim lijekovima protiv AIDS-a koji spašavaju život; gotovo je prepolovljen broj smrti od malarije; cijepljeno je toliko ljudi da će biti spašeno 5.4 milijuna života. Sve će to rezultirati s dva milijuna manje umiruće djece svake godine, prošle godine, nego u 2000. godini. Umrijet će 5000 manje djece svake godine, deset puta svih vas koji neće umrijeti svaki dan, zbog ovoga partnerstva. Zato smatram da je ovo zadivljujuć živi dokaz napretka za koji više ljudi treba znati, ali izazov komuniciranja o ovakvoj dobroj vijesti je vjerojatno tema nekog drugog TED govora. No, zasad, hvala svima koji su uključeni u postizanje ovih rezultata. Mislim da ovo dokazuje da su su zadani ciljevi hvale vrijedni.
But there's still a lot of unfinished business. Still, 7.6 million children die every year of preventable, treatable diseases, and 178 million kids are malnourished to the point of stunting, a horrible term which means physical and cognitive lifelong impairment. So there's plainly a lot more to do on the goals we've got.
Međutim, još ima puno nedovršenog posla. Još uvijek 7.6 miljuna djece godišnje umire od sprječivih, izlječivih bolesti, a 178 milijuna ih je pothranjeno do zaostajanja u rastu. Zastrašujuć je to faktor koji znači cjeloživotnu psihičku i mentalnu zaostalost. Jasno je da se još puno mora raditi na ciljevima koje smo si zadali.
But then, a lot of people think there are things that should have been in the original package that weren't agreed back then that should now be included, like sustainable development targets, natural resource governance targets, access to opportunity, to knowledge, equity, fighting corruption. All of this is measurable and could be in the new goals.
Ipak, mnogo ljudi misli da postoje stvari koje su od početka trebale biti uključene u paket, a nisu odmah dogovorene, a koje bi sada trebalo uključiti. To su ciljevi održivog razvoja, ciljevi upravljanja prirodnim resursima, pristup mogućnostima, znanju, kapitalu, borba protiv korupcije. Sve su to mjerljive stvari koje bi mogle biti dio novih ciljeva.
But the key thing here is, what do you think should be in the new goals? What do you want? Are you annoyed that I didn't talk about gender equality or education? Should those be in the new package of goals?
Ključna stvar je što vi mislite da bi trebali biti novi ciljevi. Što vi želite? Smeta li vam što nisam govorio o ravnopravnosti spolova ili o obrazovanju? Treba li to biti uključeno u paket novih ciljeva?
And quite frankly, that's a good question, but there's going to be some tough tradeoffs and choices here, so you want to hope that the process by which the world decides these new goals is going to be legitimate, right?
Iskreno, to je dobro pitanje, ali bit će ovdje nekih teških razmjena i izbora pa se želite nadati da će proces u kojem svijet odlučuje o novim ciljevima biti legitiman, zar ne?
Well, as we gather here in Edinburgh, technocrats appointed by the U.N. and certain governments, with the best intentions, are busying themselves designing a new package of goals, and currently they're doing that through pretty much the same old late-20th-century, top-down, elite, closed process.
Dok se mi okupljamo ovdje u Edinburghu, tehnokrati postavljeni od strane UN-a i određenih vlada, s najboljim namjerama, zaposleni su osmišljavanjem novog paketa ciljeva, a trenutno to rade na otprilike isti način kao i krajem 20. stoljeća, pristupom top-down, elitno, zatvoreno.
But, of course, since then, the Web and mobile telephony, along with ubiquitous reality TV formats have spread all around the world. So what we'd like to propose is that we use them to involve people from all around the world in an historic first: the world's first truly global poll and consultation, where everyone everywhere has an equal voice for the very first time.
Naravno, odonda su se internetska mreža i telefonija skupa sa sveprisutnim televizijskim “reality” programima raširili po cijelome svijetu. Zato predlažemo da iskoristimo te medije da bismo uključili ljude iz cijeloga svijeta u povijesni prvijenac: prva svjetska doista globalna glasačka lista i dogovor gdje svi svugdje imaju jednako pravo glasa po prvi puta.
I mean, wouldn't it be a huge historic missed opportunity not to do this, given that we can? There's hundreds of billions of your aid dollars at stake, tens of millions of lives, or deaths, at stake, and, I'd argue, the security and future of you and your family is also at stake.
Mislim, ne bi li bio golemi povijesni propust ne iskoristiti ovakvu priliku kad već možemo? Tu su stotine milijardi dolara vaše pomoći na kocki, deseci milijuna života ili smrti te, rekao bih, i sigurnost i budućnost vas i vaše obitelji su na kocki.
So, if you're with me, I'd say there's three essential steps in this crowdsourcing campaign: collecting, connecting and committing.
Dakle, ako se slažete sa mnom, rekao bih da postoje tri ključna koraka u ovoj kampanji kontroliranja neodređene gomile: skupljanje, povezivanje i obvezivanje.
So first of all, we've got to ground this campaign in core polling data. Let's go into every country that will let us in, ask 1,001 people what they want the new goals to be, making special efforts to reach the poorest, those without access to modern technology, and let's make sure that their views are at the center of the goals going forward.
Kao prvo, moramo ovu kampanju temeljiti na podacima glasačkih lista. Pođimo u svaku zemlju koja nam dopusti da uđemo, pitajmo 1001 osobu što želi da novi ciljevi budu, posebno se trudeći doći do onih najsiromašnijih koji nemaju pristup modernoj tehnologiji i provjerimo jesu li njihova stajališta u centru ciljeva prema kojima idemo.
Then, we've got to commission a baseline survey to make sure we can monitor and progress the goals going forward. The original goals didn't really have good baseline survey data, and we're going to need the help of big data through all of this process to make sure we can really monitor the progress.
Zatim trebamo provesti ispitivanje osnovnoga pravca da budemo sigurni da možemo pratiti i postizati ciljeve. Prvotni ciljevi nisu zapravo imali dobre podatke istraživanja osnovnoga cilja i trebat ćemo pomoć velike baze podataka kroz cijeli ovaj proces da bismo bili sigurni da možemo nadzirati napredak.
And then we've got to connect with the big crowd. Now here, we see the role for an unprecedented coalition of social media giants and upstarts, telecoms companies, reality TV show formats, gaming companies, telecoms, all of them together in kind of their "We Are The World" moment. Could they come together and help the Millennium Development Goals get rebranded into the Millennial Generation's Goals? And if just five percent of the five billion plus who are currently connected made a comment, and that comment turned into a commitment, we could crowdsource a force of 300 million people around the world to help see these goals through.
Onda se moramo povezati s velikom masom. Ovdje vidimo ulogu za dosad neviđenu koaliciju društvenih medijskih divova i početnika, telekomunikacijskih kompanija, reality show programa, kompanija za igre, svih njih zajedno u jednom “We are the world” trenutku. Mogu li se oni udružiti I pomoći da “Milenijski ciljevi razvoja” postanu “Milenijski ciljevi generacije?" Ako bi samo pet posto od više od pet milijardi, koji su trenutno povezani, komentiralo, i kad bi se ti kometari pretvorili u obvezu, mogli bismo kontrolirati silu neodređene gomile od 300 milijuna ljudi iz cijeloga svijeta koji bi pomogli ostvarenju ciljeva.
If we have this collected data, and this connected crowd, based upon our experience of campaigning and getting world leaders to commit, I think world leaders will commit to most of the crowdsourced recommendations.
Ako imamo sakupljene podatke i povezanu masu, na temelju iskustva u vođenju kampanje i nagovaranja svjetskih vođa da se obvežu, mislim da bi se svjetski vođe obvezali većini preporuka kontrolirane neodređene gomile.
But the question really is, through this process will we all have become committed? And if we are, are we ready to iterate, monitor and provide feedback, make sure these promises are really delivering results?
Ipak, pravo je pitanje bismo li svi tijekom ovoga procesa postali obvezani? I ako bismo, jesmo li spremni ponavljati, nadzirati i osigurati povratnu informaciju, osigurati da obećanja stvarno daju rezultate?
Well, there's some fantastic examples here to scale up, mostly piloted within Africa, actually. There's Open Data Kenya, which geocodes and crowdsources information about where projects are, are they delivering results. Often, they're not in the right place. And Ushahidi, which means "witness" in Swahili, which geocodes and crowdsources information in complex emergencies to help target responses. This is some of the most exciting stuff in development and democracy, where citizens on the edge of a network are helping to force open the process to make sure that the big global aid promises and vague stuff up at the top really delivers for people at a grassroots level and inverts that pyramid. This openness, this forcing openness, is key, and if it wasn't entirely transparent already, I should be open: I've got a completely transparent agenda.
Ovdje su neki fantastični primjeri povećavanja, uglavnom vođeni u Africi. Tu je Otvorena baza Kenije, čiji geokodovi i informacije kontrolirane neodređene gomile o tome gdje su projekti, daju li rezultate. Često nisu na pravome mjestu. I “Ushahidi”, što znači “svjedok” na svahiliju, čiji geokodovi i informacije kontrolirane neodređene gomile u složenim situacijama pomažu odrediti reakcije. Ovo su neke od najuzbudljivijih stvari u razvoju i demokraciji, gdje građani na rubu mreže pomažu otvoriti proces da bi bili sigurni da velika i nejasna globalna obećanja za pomoć na vrhu doista stižu do onih na interesnim razinama i okreću tu piramidu. Ova otvorenost je ključ i ako nije već potpuno transparentna, treba biti otvorena: Imam potpuno transparentan dnevni red.
Long-term trends suggest that this century is going to be a tough place to live, with population increases, consumption patterns increasing, and conflict over scarce natural resources. And look at the state of global politics today. Look at the Rio Earth Summit that happened just last week, or the Mexican G20, also last week. Both, if we're honest, a bust. Our world leaders, our global politics, currently can't get it done. They need our help. They need the cavalry, and the cavalry's not going to come from Mars. It's got to come from us, and I see this process of deciding democratically in a bottom-up fashion what the world wants to work on together as one vital means by which we can crowdsource the force to really build that constituency that's going to reinvigorate global governance in the 21st century.
Dugoročni trendovi ukazuju na to da će ovo stoljeće biti teško za život, s povećanjem populacije, povećanjem potrošnje i sukobima oko oskudnih prirodnih resursa. Pogledajte stanje današnje globalne politike. Pogledajte samo Rio Earth Summit koji je održan prošli tjedan, ili meksički G20, također prošli tjedan. Oboje su, ako ćemo iskreno, neuspjeh. Naši svjetski vođe, naša globalna politika, trenutno to ne može riješiti. Trebaju našu pomoć. Trebaju konjicu, i to konjicu koja neće doći s Marsa. Doći će od nas. Vidim ovaj bottom-up proces demokratskog odlučivanja, na čemu svijet želi zajedno raditi kao vitalan način preko kojeg možemo kontrolirati silu neodređene gomile da zaista gradi tu izbornu jedinicu koja će oživjeti globalno vladanje u 21. stoljeću.
I started in 2000. Let me finish in 2030.
Započeo sam u 2000. Dopustite da završim u 2030.
Many people made fun of a big campaign a few years ago we had called Make Poverty History. It was a naive thought in many people's minds, and it's true, it was just a t-shirt slogan that worked for the moment. But look. The empirical condition of living under a dollar and 25 is trending down, and look where it gets to by 2030. It's getting near zero. Now sure, progress in China and India and poverty reduction there was key to that, but recently also in Africa, poverty rates are being reduced. It will get harder as we get towards zero, as the poor will be increasingly located in post-conflict, fragile states, or maybe in middle income states where they don't really care about the marginalized. But I'm confident, with the right kind of political campaigning and creative and technological innovation combined working together more and more as one, I think we can get this and other goals done.
Mnogi su se ljudi rugali velikoj kampanji od prije nekoliko godina koju smo nazvali "Make Poverty History”. Bila je to naivna misao u glavama mnogih i, istina, bio je to samo slogan na majicama koji je upalio na trenutak. Ali pogledajte. Empirijski uvjeti života na manje od 1,25$ se smanjuju i pogledajmo do čega to dovodi u 2030. Dolazi gotovo do nule. Naravno, napredak u Kini i Indiji i smanjenje siromaštva je ključ tome, ali u posljednje vrijeme i u Africi se stope siromaštva smanjuju. Bit će sve teže kako se približavamo nuli jer će se siromašni sve više nalaziti u posljeratnim krhkim državama ili u zemljama s osrednjim prihodima gdje se ne vodi briga o onima na marginama društva. Ipak, siguran sam da s pravom političkom kampanjom, kreativnošću i tehnološkim inovacijama u kombinaciji sa zajedničkim radom sve više kao jedan, mislim da možemo doseći ove i druge ciljeve.
Thank you. (Applause)
Hvala vam. (Pljesak)
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
Chris Anderson: Jamie, here's the puzzle to me. If there was an incident today where a hundred kids died in some tragedy or where, say, a hundred kids were kidnapped and then rescued by special forces, I mean, it would be all over the news for a week, right? You just put up, just as one of your numbers there, that 5,000 -- is that the number?
Chris Anderson: Jaime, ovo je zagonetka za mene. Kad bi se danas dogodio neki incident u kojem bi umrlo stotinu djece ili, recimo, kad bi stotinu djece bilo oteto i zatim spašeno od strane specijalih jedinica, to bi bilo na svim vijestima tjedan dana, zar ne? Upravo si naglasio, kao jedan od tvojih brojeva, 5000 – to je taj broj?
Jamie Drummond: Fewer children every day.
Jamie Drummond: Manje djece svaki dan.
CA: Five thousand fewer children dying every day. I mean, it dwarfs, dwarfs everything that is actually on our news agenda, and it's invisible. This must drive you crazy.
CA: 5000 manje djece umire svaki dan. Mislim, to umanjuje vrijednost svega što se nalazi na dnevnom redu svih naših vijesti i nevidljivo je. To te sigurno izluđuje.
JD: It does, and we're having a huge debate in this country about aid levels, for example, and aid alone is not the whole solution. Nobody thinks it is. But, you know, if people saw the results of this smart aid, I mean, they'd be going crazy for it. I wish the 250,000 people who really did march outside this very building knew these results. Right now they don't, and it would be great to find a way to better communicate it, because we have not. Creatively, we've failed to communicate this success so far. If those kinds of efforts just could multiply their voice and amplify it at the key moments, I know for a fact we'd get better policy. The Mexican G20 need not have been a bust. Rio, if anyone cares about the environment, need not have been a bust, okay? But these conferences are going on, and I know people get skeptical and cynical about the big global summits and the promises and their never being kept, but actually, the bits that are, are making a difference, and what the politicians need is more permission from the public.
JD: Da, izluđuje me. Vodi se velika debata u ovoj zemlji o razinama pomoći. Naprimjer, sama pomoć nije cjelovito rješenje. Nitko ne misli da jest. Ali, kad bi ljudi vidjeli rezultate ove pametne pomoći, mislim da bi poludjeli za tim. Želio bih da 250,000 ljudi koji zu zaista marširali ispred ove zgrade znaju za ove rezultate. Trenutno ne znaju i bilo bi sjajno kad bismo pronašli bolji način komunikacije jer ga sada nemamo. S kreativne strane, nismo uspjeli govoriti o ovom uspjehu dosad. Kad bi se ovi napori samo mogli umnožiti i pojačati svoj glas u ključnim trenucima, znam da bismo dobili bolju politiku. Meksički sastanak G20 nije nužno morao propasti. Ni Rio, ako je ikoga briga za okoliš, nije morao propasti. Ali ove se konferencije nastavljaju i znam da ljudi postaju skeptični i cinični oko takvih velikih svjetskih sastanaka i svojih velikih obećanja koja nikada ne održe. Međutim, ono malo što učine čini razliku, a ono što političari trebaju jest malo više ovlasti od javnosti.
CA: But you haven't fully worked out the Web mechanisms, etc. by which this might happen. I mean, if the people here who've had experience using open platforms, you're interested to talk with them this week and try to take this forward.
CA: Ali niste još potpuno razradili Web mehanizme preko kojih bi se to dogodilo. Mislim, ako ima ljudi ovdje koji imaju iskustvo korištenja otvorenih platformi, zainteresirani ste razgovarati s njima ovaj tjedan i pokušati to unaprijediti.
JD: Absolutely. CA: All right, well I must say, if this conference led in some way to advancing that idea, that's a huge idea, and if you carry that forward, that is really awesome, so thank you. JD: I'd love your help.
JD: Apsolutno. U redu, moram reći, ako je ova konferencija na neki način doprinijela razvoju ideje, to je velika stvar. Ako ćete ići s time naprijed, to je sjajno i zato vam hvala. JD: Volio bih vašu pomoć.
CA: Thank you, thank you.
CA: Hvala vam, hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)