The future that we will create can be a future that we'll be proud of. I think about this every day; it's quite literally my job. I'm co-founder and senior columnist at Worldchanging.com. Alex Steffen and I founded Worldchanging in late 2003, and since then we and our growing global team of contributors have documented the ever-expanding variety of solutions that are out there, right now and on the near horizon.
我們所創造的未來可以成為我們自豪的未來 我每天都在想 - 這基本上是我的工作 我是Worldchanging.com 的發起人之一,亦是它們的高級專欄作家 Alex Steffen 和我2003年末創立 Worldchanging 自此以後,我們和來自不同國家的投稿人 記錄了非常多元化的方案 不論是已存在的還是正在研製的
In a little over two years, we've written up about 4,000 items -- replicable models, technological tools, emerging ideas -- all providing a path to a future that's more sustainable, more equitable and more desirable. Our emphasis on solutions is quite intentional. There are tons of places to go, online and off, if what you want to find is the latest bit of news about just how quickly our hell-bound handbasket is moving. We want to offer people an idea of what they can do about it. We focus primarily on the planet's environment, but we also address issues of global development, international conflict, responsible use of emerging technologies, even the rise of the so-called Second Superpower and much, much more.
在短短的兩年間, 我們寫了大概四千件物品 -- 複製模型,科學技術,新興的概念 -- 這種種都帶領著未來 變成一個更持久,更公平,更理想的世界 我們對方案的重視是很刻意的 若然你想找出最新有關 人們如何快速墜落的新聞時 你有很多地方可以去,在線或離線 我們提供應對的方法 我們主要集中在地球的環境上 但我們亦關注國際發展, 國際衝突,有責任地使用新興科技, 甚至於所謂第二超級能源的興起 以及更多更多
The scope of solutions that we discuss is actually pretty broad, but that reflects both the range of challenges that need to be met and the kinds of innovations that will allow us to do so. A quick sampling really can barely scratch the surface, but to give you a sense of what we cover: tools for rapid disaster relief, such as this inflatable concrete shelter; innovative uses of bioscience, such as a flower that changes color in the presence of landmines; ultra high-efficiency designs for homes and offices; distributed power generation using solar power, wind power, ocean power, other clean energy sources; ultra, ultra high-efficiency vehicles of the future; ultra high-efficiency vehicles you can get right now; and better urban design, so you don't need to drive as much in the first place; bio-mimetic approaches to design that take advantage of the efficiencies of natural models in both vehicles and buildings; distributed computing projects that will help us model the future of the climate. Also, a number of the topics that we've been talking about this week at TED are things that we've addressed in the past on Worldchanging: cradle-to-cradle design, MIT's Fab Labs, the consequences of extreme longevity, the One Laptop per Child project, even Gapminder.
我們所討論的方案的範疇其實很廣 但可反映我們要面對挑戰的層面和 有哪種新方法我們可以採用 一個快速的普查只能隔靴搔癢 但能給你們對我們所表達的事情一個概念 一個快速減少災難的方法 例如這個可充氣的混凝土避難所 很有創意地使用生物科學 例如一朵會在有地雷的地方而變顏色的花朵 為房屋和辦公室的超級高效能設計 利用太陽能,風力,海洋的能量 和其他綠色能源來產生電力 未來世界裡非常超級高效能汽車 你們現在能夠擁有的超級高效能汽車 和更多更好的城市設計 那時你根本不需要駕車駕那麼遠 仿生學吸取自然界高效能的模式 來設計汽車和建築 分布式的電子計算系統 幫助我們模擬未來的天氣 我們這星期裡在TED所討論過的話題 都在以往曾在Worldchanging 裡提及過 再循環設計,麻省理工的數字製造實驗室 極限長壽的後果 一學童一電腦的計劃,甚至還有Gapminder 的軟件
As a born-in-the-mid-1960s Gen X-er, hurtling all too quickly to my fortieth birthday, I'm naturally inclined to pessimism. But working at Worldchanging has convinced me, much to my own surprise, that successful responses to the world's problems are nonetheless possible. Moreover, I've come to realize that focusing only on negative outcomes can really blind you to the very possibility of success. As Norwegian social scientist Evelin Lindner has observed, "Pessimism is a luxury of good times ... In difficult times, pessimism is a self-fulfilling, self-inflicted death sentence." The truth is, we can build a better world, and we can do so right now. We have the tools: we saw a hint of that a moment ago, and we're coming up with new ones all the time. We have the knowledge, and our understanding of the planet improves every day. Most importantly, we have the motive: we have a world that needs fixing, and nobody's going to do it for us.
作為一個在六十年代中出生的X世代人類 很快踏入四十歲 我是天生傾向悲觀的。但在Worldchanging裡工作 出乎我意料地說服我 成功的回應世界的問題是 仍然可行的 而且,我發現到專注在負面的結果 會讓你錯失很多成功的可能性 正如挪威社會科學家 Evelin Lindner 的評論 悲觀是好時代的奢侈品 -- 在艱辛的時代,悲觀是 自我滿足,自我給予的死刑 事實上,我們可以創造更美好的世界 而我們應坐言起行 我們有很多點子: 我們剛剛也看了一些 我們經常會發明新的點子 我們擁有知識 而我們對地球的理解與日俱增 最重要的是,我們有動機 我們的地球需要調整。沒有人能代替我們調整這個世界
Many of the solutions that I and my colleagues seek out and write up every day have some important aspects in common: transparency, collaboration, a willingness to experiment, and an appreciation of science -- or, more appropriately, science! (Laughter) The majority of models, tools and ideas on Worldchanging encompass combinations of these characteristics, so I want to give you a few concrete examples of how these principles combine in world-changing ways.
有很多我和我的團隊每一天所尋找和想出的辦法 都有著幾個共同而又重要的觀點 就是:透明,合作,勇於試驗 和欣賞科學 -- 或更正確是,科 ~ 學 ~ (笑) 在Worldchanging裡大部份的模式,工具和創意 是包含著這些特點的。因此我想為你們介紹 一些實在的例子來証明這些原則如何 運用在改變世界的方法內
We can see world-changing values in the emergence of tools to make the invisible visible -- that is, to make apparent the conditions of the world around us that would otherwise be largely imperceptible. We know that people often change their behavior when they can see and understand the impact of their actions. As a small example, many of us have experienced the change in driving behavior that comes from having a real time display of mileage showing precisely how one's driving habits affect the vehicle's efficiency. The last few years have all seen the rise of innovations in how we measure and display aspects of the world that can be too big, or too intangible, or too slippery to grasp easily. Simple technologies, like wall-mounted devices that display how much power your household is using, and what kind of results you'll get if you turn off a few lights -- these can actually have a direct positive impact on your energy footprint. Community tools, like text messaging, that can tell you when pollen counts are up or smog levels are rising or a natural disaster is unfolding, can give you the information you need to act in a timely fashion. Data-rich displays like maps of campaign contributions, or maps of the disappearing polar ice caps, allow us to better understand the context and the flow of processes that affect us all.
我們在這些方法中可以看到改變世界的價值觀 就是把隱藏的呈現在眼前 -- 即是 把我們周圍的情況顯示出來 否則別人會察覺不來 我們知道人們會改變他們的行為 是當他們見到和明白到自己的行為所帶來的影響 舉一個例子,我們很多都曾經歷過 通過一個精確的哩數顯示器的即時顯示 表現出駕駛習慣的改變 如何影響汽車的性能 在過去幾年間我們見到新的創意如何用在 我們計算和顯示世界的種種 這可以是很大的,或抽象的,或難以容易拿捏的 簡單的科技,如展示家居的耗電量的 掛牆裝置 和我們關掉幾盞電燈的結果是如何 這些都對我們的能源足跡有著 直接和正面的效果 交流工具,如短訊可以告訴你 什麼時候花粉指數高或污染指數在上升 或自然災害正在來臨 這些資訊都讓你採取及時的反應 豐富的數據能顯示例如接受政治捐獻的地圖 或正在消失的北極冰川的地圖 這些讓我們更加明白事實的背景和 過程是如何地影響我們
We can see world-changing values in research projects that seek to meet the world's medical needs through open access to data and collaborative action. Now, some people emphasize the risks of knowledge-enabled dangers, but I'm convinced that the benefits of knowledge-enabled solutions are far more important. For example, open-access journals, like the Public Library of Science, make cutting-edge scientific research free to all -- everyone in the world. And actually, a growing number of science publishers are adopting this model. Last year, hundreds of volunteer biology and chemistry researchers around the world worked together to sequence the genome of the parasite responsible for some of the developing world's worst diseases: African sleeping sickness, leishmaniasis and Chagas disease. That genome data can now be found on open-access genetic data banks around the world, and it's an enormous boon to researchers trying to come up with treatments. But my favorite example has to be the global response to the SARS epidemic in 2003, 2004, which relied on worldwide access to the full gene sequence of the SARS virus. The U.S. National Research Council in its follow-up report on the outbreak specifically cited this open availability of the sequence as a key reason why the treatment for SARS could be developed so quickly.
我們通過開放資訊和互動的方式 看到那些尋求滿足醫療需求的研究項目中 想改變世界的價值觀 現在有些人強調著知識所帶來的危機的風險 而我則確信知識能帶來解決方案的優勢 是更加重要的 例如,開放期刊,如科學公供圖書館 讓尖端的科學研究免費分享給 世界上所有的人 事實上,有更多的科學出版商 正採取這個模式 上一年,有過百來自地球各國的 志願生物和化學研究員一同 為一些發展中國家的疾病 來把寄生蟲的基因組排序 例如非洲的昏睡病,黑熱病和查加斯病 那些基因組的數據都能在 全球開放的基因數據庫中找到 而這是一個對那些尋求治療方法的研究人員 一個很大的益處 而我最喜歡的一個例子是全球對 2003,2004年所發生的SARS病毒所作出的反應 這都是有賴於全球把SARS病毒的基因排序公開 美國國家研究協會 在其後期檢討報告中特別指出 這個公開的基因排序是這次能快速地找到 SARS治療的一個最大的原因
And we can see world-changing values in something as humble as a cell phone. I can probably count on my fingers the number of people in this room who do not use a mobile phone -- and where is Aubrey, because I know he doesn't? (Laughter) For many of us, cell phones have really become almost an extension of ourselves, and we're really now beginning to see the social changes that mobile phones can bring about. You may already know some of the big-picture aspects: globally, more camera phones were sold last year than any other kind of camera, and a growing number of people live lives mediated through the lens, and over the network -- and sometimes enter history books. In the developing world, mobile phones have become economic drivers. A study last year showed a direct correlation between the growth of mobile phone use and subsequent GDP increases across Africa. In Kenya, mobile phone minutes have actually become an alternative currency. The political aspects of mobile phones can't be ignored either, from text message swarms in Korea helping to bring down a government, to the Blairwatch Project in the UK, keeping tabs on politicians who try to avoid the press. (Laughter)
而我們能在簡單的流動電話中 看到世界改變的價值 我只要用我一雙手便輕易數出 在這間房中誰人不用流動電話 Aubrey 在那裡,我知道他是其中之一 (笑) 我們大部份人都認為流動電話 已經幾乎變成我們的電話分機 而我們開始注意到流動電話 所帶來的社會轉變 你或許已經知道其中的一些大觀點 全球在上一年的相機電話 比任何一種相機更好賣 有更多的人生活依賴著 鏡頭和網路裡 -- 甚至有時進入歷史書籍中 在發展中國家,流動電話是經濟的驅動者 去年有一個研究顯示 在非洲的流動電話使用的增長 和其國民生產總值是有直接的關係 在肯亞,流動電話的分鐘 已變成另一種流通的貨幣 而流動電話的政治角色亦不容忽視 從韓國因大量的文字短訊而令政府下台 到在英國的貝利亞計畫 令那些躲避傳媒的政治家無所遁形 (笑)
And it's just going to get more wild. Pervasive, always-on networks, high quality sound and video, even devices made to be worn instead of carried in the pocket, will transform how we live on a scale that few really appreciate. It's no exaggeration to say that the mobile phone may be among the world's most important technologies. And in this rapidly evolving context, it's possible to imagine a world in which the mobile phone becomes something far more than a medium for social interaction.
而這只會越加瘋狂 普遍的,永久連線,高清畫面和聲音 甚至乎那些穿在身上而不是攜帶在口袋裡的電子工具 只會在我們不甚欣賞的方式改變我們的生活 如果說流動電話是世界 一項最重要的科技也不為過態 在這迅速發展的時代下 我們可以想像到這個世界流動電話已 遠超過一個社交互動的工具
I've long admired the Witness project, and Peter Gabriel told us more details about it on Wednesday, in his profoundly moving presentation. And I'm just incredibly happy to see the news that Witness is going to be opening up a Web portal to enable users of digital cameras and camera phones to send in their recordings over the Internet, rather than just hand-carrying the videotape. Not only does this add a new and potentially safer avenue for documenting abuses, it opens up the program to the growing global digital generation.
我很久以前便很羨慕Witness 這個方案 而在星期三Peter Gabriel 在他的感動人心的演講中 告訴我有關這個方案的詳情 我真的是對Witness 將設立一個網路平台 以供用家在網上 上載數碼相機和電話相機的影片 而非單靠手提錄象機 這個消息無比的高興 這不單只增加了一個新的又更安全的途徑 來防止資訊的濫用 亦可開放一個程式給予我們新增的全球電子的世代
Now, imagine a similar model for networking environmentalists. Imagine a Web portal collecting recordings and evidence of what's happening to the planet: putting news and data at the fingertips of people of all kinds, from activists and researchers to businesspeople and political figures. It would highlight the changes that are underway, but would more importantly give voice to the people who are willing to work to see a new world, a better world, come about. It would give everyday citizens a chance to play a role in the protection of the planet. It would be, in essence, an "Earth Witness" project. Now, just to be clear, in this talk I'm using the name "Earth Witness" as part of the scenario, simply as a shorthand, for what this imaginary project could aspire to, not to piggyback on the wonderful work of the Witness organization. It could just as easily be called, "Environmental Transparency Project," "Smart Mobs for Natural Security" -- but Earth Witness is a lot easier to say.
現在,讓我們幻想一個網絡環保論者的模式 幻想一個網路平台在收集 正在這個地球發生的錄象和證據 把這些新聞和數據放在一個所有人 從激進者和研究員 至商界和政界都能垂手可得的地方 把那些正在進行的改變突顯出來 更重要的是給 那些願意為新世界,美好世界而努力的人 發聲 這將會給平凡的人 一個機會去扮演保護地球的角色 這就是"地球見證"這計劃的精髓 現在,讓我呈清,這個演講我用了"地球見證"作為 一個例子, 簡單地表達 虛擬計劃是怎樣地被渴求 而不是扛負在Witness機構的精彩的工作上 這可以只隨便地叫作 "環境透明計畫" 或 "聰明民眾守護自然資源" 但地球見證有更容易說明一切
Now, many of the people who participate in Earth Witness would focus on ecological problems, human-caused or otherwise, especially environmental crimes and significant sources of greenhouse gases and emissions. That's understandable and important. We need better documentation of what's happening to the planet if we're ever going to have a chance of repairing the damage. But the Earth Witness project wouldn't need to be limited to problems. In the best Worldchanging tradition, it might also serve as a showcase for good ideas, successful projects and efforts to make a difference that deserve much more visibility. Earth Witness would show us two worlds: the world we're leaving behind, and the world we're building for generations to come.
現在有很多人參與地球見證的工作 他們集中在生態的問題上,人為的或其他方面的 尤其環境罪行 和大量的溫室氣體和排放 這是容易理解和重要的 我們需要更好的把地球正在發生的事情上存檔 以為我們將來有機會去修復這些損害 但地球見證不單局限於問題上 在Worldchanging 的傳統上 這亦應成為好點子的示範 成功的計劃和為改變而付出的努力是值得加許的 地球見證展示了兩個世界 我們過往的世界 和我們為下一代而建議的世界
And what makes this scenario particularly appealing to me is we could do it today. The key components are already widely available. Camera phones, of course, would be fundamental to the project. And for a lot of us, they're as close as we have yet to always-on, widely available information tools. We may not remember to bring our digital cameras with us wherever we go, but very few of us forget our phones. You could even imagine a version of this scenario in which people actually build their own phones. Over the course of last year, open-source hardware hackers have come up with multiple models for usable, Linux-based mobile phones, and the Earth Phone could spin off from this kind of project. At the other end of the network, there'd be a server for people to send photos and messages to, accessible over the Web, combining a photo-sharing service, social networking platforms and a collaborative filtering system. Now, you Web 2.0 folks in the audience know what I'm talking about, but for those of you for whom that last sentence was in a crazy moon language, I mean simply this: the online part of the Earth Witness project would be created by the users, working together and working openly. That's enough right there to start to build a compelling chronicle of what's now happening to our planet, but we could do more.
而這個計劃吸引我的是 我們可以在今天做到 最重要的構成要素而呈現在眼前 相機電話,當然是這個計劃的基本 而對於我們很多人來說,它是經常開著 廣泛的接受資訊 我們可能會忘記帶數碼相機 但我們很少忘記帶電話 你可能想像到一個 人們自己創造其電話的方案 在過去的幾年間,開放硬件資源的駭客 提供了幾款不同的模式以供 Linux 模式的流動電話使用 而地球電話可成為這類計劃的副產品 在網絡的另一端有一個伺服器 供人們傳送圖片和訊息 在互聯網中使用,把這些圖片分享的服務 和社交聯誼的平台和合作的過濾的系統結合 現在,你們這些網絡2.0的各位都知道我在說什麼 但那些認為我剛才所說的 好像是外星話的人,我只是想說 地球見證計劃的在線那部份 會是由用戶所創造,公同製作和公共開放 這已經足夠去開始建立一個令人矚目的敘述 有關地球正在發生的事情,但我們可以做更多
An Earth Witness site could also serve as a collection spot for all sorts of data about conditions around the planet picked up by environmental sensors that attach to your cell phone. Now, you don't see these devices as add-ons for phones yet, but students and engineers around the world have attached atmospheric sensors to bicycles and handheld computers and cheap robots and the backs of pigeons -- that being a project that's actually underway right now at U.C. Irvine, using bird-mounted sensors as a way of measuring smog-forming pollution. It's hardly a stretch to imagine putting the same thing on a phone carried by a person. Now, the idea of connecting a sensor to your phone is not new: phone-makers around the world offer phones that sniff for bad breath, or tell you to worry about too much sun exposure. Swedish firm Uppsala Biomedical, more seriously, makes a mobile phone add-on that can process blood tests in the field, uploading the data, displaying the results. Even the Lawrence Livermore National Labs have gotten into the act, designing a prototype phone that has radiation sensors to find dirty bombs.
在地球見證的網頁可以成為一個結集的地方 把有關地球的所有狀況的數據 經過環保的感應器挑選然後連到流動電話中 現在我們還未見到電話有這些附加程式 但世界各地的學生們和工程師 已把這些大氣中的感應器連在單車,手提電腦 廉價的機械人和白鴿的背上 而這個計劃其實正在加州大學歐文分校展開 利用架在雀鳥身上的感應器 去量度形成煙霧的污染物 這不難想像相同的物件 放在人們隨身攜帶的電話裡 在電話接駁感應器並不新鮮 電話製造商提供一個能測口氣的電話 或告訴你不要過份接觸陽光 瑞士 Uppsala Biomedical 公司製造了一個 在流動電話來進行血液測試的附加程式 把資料上載和顯示結果 甚至乎 Lawrence Livermore National Labs 參與計劃 設計了一個電話的初型 用輻射感應器來找出炸彈
Now, there's an enormous variety of tiny, inexpensive sensors on the market, and you can easily imagine someone putting together a phone that could measure temperature, CO2 or methane levels, the presence of some biotoxins -- potentially, in a few years, maybe even H5N1 avian flu virus. You could see that some kind of system like this would actually be a really good fit with Larry Brilliant's InSTEDD project. Now, all of this data could be tagged with geographic information and mashed up with online maps for easy viewing and analysis. And that's worth noting in particular. The impact of open-access online maps over the last year or two has been simply phenomenal. Developers around the world have come up with an amazing variety of ways to layer useful data on top of the maps, from bus routes and crime statistics to the global progress of avian flu. Earth Witness would take this further, linking what you see with what thousands or millions of other people see around the world.
市場上有很多不同的細小廉價的感應器 你很容易想像有一些人把它加在電話上 來量度氣溫,二氧化碳或甲烷的水平 來檢測生化污染的存在 有機會在幾年間可能能測試H5N1禽流感的病毒 你可以見到類似的系統 其實與Larry Brilliant 的 InSTEDD 計劃 很一致 所有的數據可附加在地理的資訊上 和混在網上地圖以供瀏覽和分析 最值得關注是 開放式在線地圖在過去一兩年裡的 影響是非常的驚人的 在世界各地的發展家發明了 很不可思異的方法來把有用的數據放在地圖上 從公車路線和罪案數字 以至全球蔓延的禽流感 地球見證把它帶到另一層次,把你們可以見到的 連到世界各地成千上萬的人那裡
It's kind of exciting to think about what might be accomplished if something like this ever existed. We'd have a far better -- far better knowledge of what's happening on our planet environmentally than could be gathered with satellites and a handful of government sensor nets alone. It would be a collaborative, bottom-up approach to environmental awareness and protection, able to respond to emerging concerns in a smart mobs kind of way -- and if you need greater sensor density, just have more people show up. And most important, you can't ignore how important mobile phones are to global youth. This is a system that could put the next generation at the front lines of gathering environmental data. And as we work to figure out ways to mitigate the worst effects of climate disruption, every little bit of information matters. A system like Earth Witness would be a tool for all of us to participate in the improvement of our knowledge and, ultimately, the improvement of the planet itself.
當你想像這些可能發生和可以實現 這將會是非常興奮的事情 我們有一個更好,比在衛星系統 和少量的政府的感應網絡 更能清楚知道 我們的地球在環境的範疇裡正在發生什麼 這將會是一個合作,由下而上的方法 來加強環境覺悟和保護 從而使聰明的民眾回應這些新興的問題 如何你想要更大的回響,你要更多人的加入 最重要的是 我們不能忽視流動電話是如何地對全球的年輕人的重要性 這是一個系統我們用在下一代的身上 在前線收集環保的數據 當我們為了想出方法來 減輕氣候失調的壞影響時 每一個資訊都來得重要 類似世界見證的系統將會是我們 用來參與改善我們的知識和 最終改善世界的工具
Now, as I suggested at the outset, there are thousands upon thousands of good ideas out there, so why have I spent the bulk of my time telling you about something that doesn't exist? Because this is what tomorrow could look like: bottom-up, technology-enabled global collaboration to handle the biggest crisis our civilization has ever faced. We can save the planet, but we can't do it alone -- we need each other. Nobody's going to fix the world for us, but working together, making use of technological innovations and human communities alike, we might just be able to fix it ourselves. We have at our fingertips a cornucopia of compelling models, powerful tools, and innovative ideas that can make a meaningful difference in our planet's future. We don't need to wait for a magic bullet to save us all; we already have an arsenal of solutions just waiting to be used. There's a staggering array of wonders out there, across diverse disciplines, all telling us the same thing: success can be ours if we're willing to try. And as we say at Worldchanging, another world isn't just possible; another world is here. We just need to open our eyes. Thank you very much.
現在,好像我開端所建議 在某處有著成千上萬的好點子 我為什麼花了我很多時間 告訴你一些不存在的事情 因為這是我們的將來: 由下而上,利用科技驅使全國合作 來應付我們文明的最大危機 我們可以拯救這地球,但我們不能獨個兒進行 -- 我們需要彼此 沒有人能幫我們傷理這個地球,只有共同合作 利用科技革新和人類的群組 我們可能把它修理 我們很容易便得到令人注目的模式 有效的工具和創新的點子 而這些都能有意義的改變地球的將來 我們不需要等待一個靈丹妙藥來拯救我們 我們已經聚集一堆的方案等待我們使用 在某處有大量驚人的好奇心 在不同的範疇裡,告訴我們相同的東西 如果我們肯嘗試,成功就是我們的 而我們說在Worldchanging裡 另外的世界不只是可行,而且另外的世界就在這裡 你需要張開你的眼睛。謝謝各位