I'm afraid I'm one of those speakers you hope you're not going to meet at TED. First, I don't have a mobile, so I'm on the safe side. Secondly, a political theorist who's going to talk about the crisis of democracy is probably not the most exciting topic you can think about. And plus, I'm not going to give you any answers. I'm much more trying to add to some of the questions we're talking about. And one of the things that I want to question is this very popular hope these days that transparency and openness can restore the trust in democratic institutions.
Bojim se da sam jedan od onih govornika za koje se nadate da nećete susresti na TED-u. Kao prvo, nemam mobilni telefon, tako da sam siguran po tom pitanju. Drugo, politički teoretičar koji namerava da govori o krizi demokratije verovatno i nije najzanimljivija tema koju možete zamisliti. Pored toga, neću vam dati nikakve odgovore. Više ću pokušati da dodam neka pitanja o kojima ćemo razgovarati. Jedna od stvari koju želim da preispitam je ova veoma popularna nada današnjeg vremena da transparentnost i otvorenost mogu vratiti poverenje u demokratske institucije.
There is one more reason for you to be suspicious about me. You people, the Church of TED, are a very optimistic community. (Laughter) Basically you believe in complexity, but not in ambiguity. As you have been told, I'm Bulgarian. And according to the surveys, we are marked the most pessimistic people in the world. (Laughter) The Economist magazine recently wrote an article covering one of the recent studies on happiness, and the title was "The Happy, the Unhappy and the Bulgarians."
Ima još jedan razlog zbog kog treba da ste sumnjičavi u vezi sa mnom. Vi ste, kao Crkva TED-a, veoma optimistična zajednica. (Smeh) U suštini, verujete u složenost, ali ne u dvosmislenost. Kao što vam je rečeno, ja sam Bugarin. A prema nekim istraživanjima, mi Bugari smo najpesimističniji narod na svetu. (Smeh) U časopisu "Ekonomist" nedavno je objavljen članak o jednoj nedavno sprovedenoj studiji o sreći, a naslov je bio "Srećni, nesrećni i Bugari".
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So now when you know what to expect, let's give you the story. And this is a rainy election day in a small country -- that can be my country, but could be also your country. And because of the rain until four o'clock in the afternoon, nobody went to the polling stations. But then the rain stopped, people went to vote. And when the votes had been counted, three-fourths of the people have voted with a blank ballot. The government and the opposition, they have been simply paralyzed. Because you know what to do about the protests. You know who to arrest, who to negotiate with. But what to do about people who are voting with a blank ballot? So the government decided to have the elections once again. And this time even a greater number, 83 percent of the people, voted with blank ballots. Basically they went to the ballot boxes to tell that they have nobody to vote for.
Sada kada znate šta da očekujete, hajde da krenem sa pričom. Izborni je dan, uz to kišovit, u jednoj maloj zemlji - koja bi mogla biti moja zemlja, ali i vaša. I upravo zbog kiše, sve do četiri sata posle podne niko se nije pojavio na glasačkim mestima. Zatim, kiša je prestala i ljudi su otišli da glasaju. Kada su glasovi prebrojani, tri četvrtine glasača se opredelilo za prazne listiće. I vlada i opozicija su jednostavno bili paralizovani. Zna se šta treba uraditi u vezi sa protestima. Znate koga da uhapsite, a sa kim da pregovarate. Ali šta učiniti sa ljudima koji su glasali praznim listićem? Zbog toga je vlada odlučila da ponovo raspiše izbore. Ovoga puta je čak veći broj, 83 posto glasača, glasao praznim listićima. Jednostavno su otišli na glasačka mesta kako bi rekli da nemaju za koga da glasaju.
This is the opening of a beautiful novel by Jose Saramago called "Seeing." But in my view it very well captures part of the problem that we have with democracy in Europe these days. On one level nobody's questioning that democracy is the best form of government. Democracy is the only game in town. The problem is that many people start to believe that it is not a game worth playing.
Ovo je uvod predivnog romana Žozea Saramaga "Viđenje". Meni se čini da taj uvod izvrsno opisuje deo problema demokratije u Evropi sa kojim se suočavamo danas. S jedne strane, niko ne dovodi u pitanje da je demokratija najbolji vid vladavine. Demokratija je jedini izbor. Problem je u tome što mnogi počinju da veruju da to i nije baš pravi izbor.
For the last 30 years, political scientists have observed that there is a constant decline in electoral turnout, and the people who are least interested to vote are the people whom you expect are going to gain most out of voting. I mean the unemployed, the under-privileged. And this is a major issue. Because especially now with the economic crisis, you can see that the trust in politics, that the trust in democratic institutions, was really destroyed. According to the latest survey being done by the European Commission, 89 percent of the citizens of Europe believe that there is a growing gap between the opinion of the policy-makers and the opinion of the public. Only 18 percent of Italians and 15 percent of Greeks believe that their vote matters. Basically people start to understand that they can change governments, but they cannot change policies.
Poslednjih trideset godina, politikolozi su primetili stalan pad izlaznosti na izborima i da su najmanje zainteresovani da glasaju oni ljudi za koje očekujete da će dobiti najviše glasanjem. Mislim na nezaposlene i siromašne. To je suštinsko pitanje. Naročito sada sa ekonomskom krizom, možemo da vidimo da su poverenje u politiku i poverenje u demokratske institucije, zaista uništeni. Prema poslednjem istraživanju Evropske komisije, 89 posto građana Evrope veruje da je sve veći jaz između mišljenja onih koji kreiraju politiku i mišljenja javnosti. Samo 18 posto Italijana i 15 posto Grka veruje da je njihov glas bitan. U suštini, ljudi počinju da shvataju da mogu promeniti vlade, ali ne mogu promeniti politiku.
And the question which I want to ask is the following: How did it happen that we are living in societies which are much freer than ever before -- we have more rights, we can travel easier, we have access to more information -- at the same time that trust in our democratic institutions basically has collapsed? So basically I want to ask: What went right and what went wrong in these 50 years when we talk about democracy? And I'll start with what went right.
A pitanje koje želim da postavim je sledeće: kako je moguće da živimo u društvima koja su slobodnija nego ikada pre - imamo više prava, možemo lakše putovati, imamo pristup većem broju informacija - i u isto vreme imamo potpuno srozavanje poverenja u naše demokratske institucije? Želim da pitam sledeće: šta je bilo dobro, a šta loše u ovih 50 godina kada govorimo o demokratiji? Počeću sa onim što je dobro.
And the first thing that went right was, of course, these five revolutions which, in my view, very much changed the way we're living and deepened our democratic experience. And the first was the cultural and social revolution of 1968 and 1970s, which put the individual at the center of politics. It was the human rights moment. Basically this was also a major outbreak, a culture of dissent, a culture of basically non-conformism, which was not known before. So I do believe that even things like that are very much the children of '68 -- nevertheless that most of us had been even not born then. But after that you have the market revolution of the 1980s. And nevertheless that many people on the left try to hate it, the truth is that it was very much the market revolution that sent the message: "The government does not know better." And you have more choice-driven societies. And of course, you have 1989 -- the end of Communism, the end of the Cold War. And it was the birth of the global world. And you have the Internet. And this is not the audience to which I'm going to preach to what extent the Internet empowered people. It has changed the way we are communicating and basically we are viewing politics. The very idea of political community totally has changed. And I'm going to name one more revolution, and this is the revolution in brain sciences, which totally changed the way we understand how people are making decisions.
Prva stvar koja je bila dobra su, naravno, ovih pet revolucija koje su, po mom viđenju, značajno promenile način na koji živimo i produbile naše demokratsko iskustvo. Prvo su bile kulturna i socijalna revolucija 1968. i sedamdesetih, koje su stavile pojedinca u središte politike. To je bilo vreme ljudskih prava. Takođe bio je to i ključni proboj, kultura nezadovoljstva, kultura suštinskog nonkonformizma, koja do tada nije bila poznata. Verujem da su čak i stvari poput toga u značajnoj meri deca '68. - bez obzira što većina nas u to vreme još nije ni bila rođena. Nakon toga '80-ih smo imali tržišnu revoluciju. Bez obzira što mnogi levičari pokušavaju da je mrze, istina je da je upravo tržišna revolucija bila ta koja je poslala sledeću poruku: "Vlada ne zna bolje". Od tada imate društva vođena izborima. I naravno, revolucija 1989. - krah komunizma, kraj Hladnog rata. Tu nastaje globalni svet. Sada imamo internet. Ovo nije publika kojoj bih želeo propovedati o tome u kolikoj je meri internet osposobio ljude. Promenio je način na koji komuniciramo i u suštini, na koji posmatramo politiku. Sama ideja političke zajednice se potpuno izmenila. Pomenuću još jednu revoluciju, a to je revolucija u kognitivnoj nauci, koja je u potpunosti promenila način na koji shvatamo kako ljudi donose odluke.
So this is what went right. But if we're going to see what went wrong, we're going to end up with the same five revolutions. Because first you have the 1960s and 1970s, cultural and social revolution, which in a certain way destroyed the idea of a collective purpose. The very idea, all these collective nouns that we have been taught about -- nation, class, family. We start to like divorcing, if we're married at all. All this was very much under attack. And it is so difficult to engage people in politics when they believe that what really matters is where they personally stand.
Znači, ovo su one stvari koje su dobre. Ali ako pogledamo šta je bilo loše, završićemo sa istih pet revolucija. Najpre smo '60-ih i '70-ih imali kulturnu i socijalnu revoluciju, koje su na izvestan način uništile ideju zajedničke svrhe. Sama ideja, sve ove zajedničke imenice o kojima su nas učili - nacija, klasa, porodica. Razvod nam se dopao, u slučaju da smo i bili venčani. Sve ovo je u velikoj meri bilo izloženo napadima. Jako je teško uključiti ljude u politiku kada veruju da je ono što je zaista važno zapravo njihovo lično mišljenje.
And you have the market revolution of the 1980s and the huge increase of inequality in societies. Remember, until the 1970s, the spread of democracy has always been accompanied by the decline of inequality. The more democratic our societies have been, the more equal they have been becoming. Now we have the reverse tendency. The spread of democracy now is very much accompanied by the increase in inequality. And I find this very much disturbing when we're talking about what's going on right and wrong with democracy these days.
Imate tržišnu revoluciju tokom '80-ih i ogroman rast socijalne nejednakosti. Setite se, sve do '70-ih, širenje demokratije uvek je bilo propraćeno smanjenjem neravnopravnosti. Što bi društva postajala demokratskija, sve više je bilo jednakosti. Sada imamo obrnutu tendenciju. Širenje demokratije je sada u velikoj meri propraćeno porastom nejednakosti. Smatram da je to vrlo zabrinjavajuće kada govorimo o tome šta je dobro, a šta loše u vezi sa demokratijom danas.
And if you go to 1989 -- something that basically you don't expect that anybody's going to criticize -- but many are going to tell you, "Listen, it was the end of the Cold War that tore the social contract between the elites and the people in Western Europe." When the Soviet Union was still there, the rich and the powerful, they needed the people, because they feared them. Now the elites basically have been liberated. They're very mobile. You cannot tax them. And basically they don't fear the people. So as a result of it, you have this very strange situation in which the elites basically got out of the control of the voters. So this is not by accident that the voters are not interested to vote anymore.
A ako se vratimo na 1989. - nešto što u principu ne očekujete da bi bilo ko kritikovao - mnogi će vam reći: "Slušaj, upravo je kraj Hladnog rata uništio socijalni sporazum između elita i običnih ljudi u Zapadnoj Evropi." Dok je još postojao Sovjetski Savez, bogatima i moćnima je bio potreban narod, jer su ga se plašili. Elite su sada u principu oslobođene. Dosta su mobilne. Ne možete im nametnuti poreze. One se zapravo ne plaše naroda. Kao rezultat toga, imamo dosta neobičnu situaciju da su se elite otele kontroli glasača. Nije slučajnost da glasači više nisu zainteresovani da glasaju.
And when we talk about the Internet, yes, it's true, the Internet connected all of us, but we also know that the Internet created these echo chambers and political ghettos in which for all your life you can stay with the political community you belong to. And it's becoming more and more difficult to understand the people who are not like you. I know that many people here have been splendidly speaking about the digital world and the possibility for cooperation, but [have you] seen what the digital world has done to American politics these days? This is also partly a result of the Internet revolution. This is the other side of the things that we like.
Kada pričamo o internetu, istina je da nas internet sve povezuje, ali takođe moramo znati da je internet stvorio i ove odjeke i političke getoe u kojima možete ostati do kraja života sa političkom zajednicom kojoj pripadate. Sve je teže razumeti one koji nisu poput vas. Znam da mnogi među vama fantastično govore o digitalnom svetu i mogućnostima saradnje, ali vidite li šta je taj digitalni svet danas učinio američkoj politici? To je delimično rezultat internet revolucije. To je druga strana onoga što nam se sviđa.
And when you go to the brain sciences, what political consultants learned from the brain scientists is don't talk to me about ideas anymore, don't talk to me about policy programs. What really matters is basically to manipulate the emotions of the people. And you have this very strongly to the extent that, even if you see when we talk about revolutions these days, these revolutions are not named anymore around ideologies or ideas. Before, revolutions used to have ideological names. They could be communist, they could be liberal, they could be fascist or Islamic. Now the revolutions are called under the medium which is most used. You have Facebook revolutions, Twitter revolutions. The content doesn't matter anymore, the problem is the media.
A kada govorimo o kognitivnoj nauci, ono što su politički savetnici naučili od kognitivnih naučnika je da više ne govore o idejama, da ne govore o političkim programima. Ono što je zaista bitno je da manipulišu osećanjima ljudi. To je toliko snažno prisutno da, dok u današnje vreme govorimo o revolucijama, te revolucije više ne nazivamo po ideologijama ili idejama. Revolucije su nekada imale ideološka imena. Mogle su da budu komunističke, liberalne, mogle su da budu fašističke ili islamske. Sada se revolucije nazivaju prema mediju koji se najviše koristi. Tako imamo Fejsbuk revoluciju, Tviter revoluciju. Sadržaj više nije bitan, problem je u mediju.
I'm saying this because one of my major points is what went right is also what went wrong. And when we're now trying to see how we can change the situation, when basically we're trying to see what can be done about democracy, we should keep this ambiguity in mind. Because probably some of the things that we love most are going to be also the things that can hurt us most. These days it's very popular to believe that this push for transparency, this kind of a combination between active citizens, new technologies and much more transparency-friendly legislation can restore trust in politics. You believe that when you have these new technologies and people who are ready to use this, it can make it much more difficult for the governments to lie, it's going to be more difficult for them to steal and probably even going to be more difficult for them to kill. This is probably true. But I do believe that we should be also very clear that now when we put the transparency at the center of politics where the message is, "It's transparency, stupid."
Ovo kažem jer je jedna od glavnih tačaka to da ono što je dobro, istovremeno je i loše. Sada kada pokušavamo da shvatimo kako da promenimo situaciju, šta da uradimo sa demokratijom, treba da imamo na umu ovu dvoznačnost. Verovatno će neke stvari koje najviše volimo istovremeno biti i stvari koje nas najviše mogu povrediti. U današnje vreme je jako popularno verovanje da ovaj poriv za transparentnošću, ova kombinacija aktivnih građana, novih tehnologija i transparentno-prijateljskog zakonodavstva može da vrati poverenje u politiku. Verujete da je, kada imate sve ove nove tehnologije i ljude koji su spremni da ih koriste, vladama mnogo teže da lažu, da će im biti teže da kradu i da će im verovatno biti još teže da ubiju. To je verovatno tačno. Ali verujem da takođe moramo da budemo jasni da sada kada stavimo transparentnost u samo središte politike, tu je poruka da je transparentnost glupa.
Transparency is not about restoring trust in institutions. Transparency is politics' management of mistrust. We are assuming that our societies are going to be based on mistrust. And by the way, mistrust was always very important for democracy. This is why you have checks and balances. This is why basically you have all this creative mistrust between the representatives and those whom they represent. But when politics is only management of mistrust, then -- I'm very glad that "1984" has been mentioned -- now we're going to have "1984" in reverse. It's not going to be the Big Brother watching you, it's going to be we being the Big Brother watching the political class.
Transparentnost ne znači vraćanje poverenja u institucije. Transparentnost je upravljanje nepoverenjem u politici. Podrazumevamo da će naša društva biti zasnovana na nepoverenju. Nepoverenje je oduvek bilo jako bitno za demokratiju. Zbog toga imate stalne provere. Zbog toga i imate ovo kreativno nepoverenje između predstavnika i onih koje oni predstavljaju. Međutim, kada se politika svede samo na upravljanje nepoverenjem, onda - a veoma mi je drago da je pomenuta "1984." - znači da ćemo sada imati "1984." obrnutim redosledom. To neće biti Veliki brat koji nas posmatra, već ćemo mi biti Veliki brat koji posmatra političku klasu.
But is this the idea of a free society? For example, can you imagine that decent, civic, talented people are going to run for office if they really do believe that politics is also about managing mistrust? Are you not afraid with all these technologies that are going to track down any statement the politicians are going to make on certain issues, are you not afraid that this is going to be a very strong signal to politicians to repeat their positions, even the very wrong positions, because consistency is going to be more important than common sense? And the Americans who are in the room, are you not afraid that your presidents are going to govern on the basis of what they said in the primary elections?
Ali, da li je to ideja slobodnog društva? Na primer, možete li da zamislite da će se pristojni, građanski orijentisani, talentovani ljudi kandidovati za pozicije ukoliko zaista veruju da je politika takođe i upravljanje nepoverenjem? Zar se ne plašite da će sve ove tehnologije koje će ući u trag svakoj izjavi političara o određenim pitanjima, zar se ne plašite da će to biti izuzetno snažan signal političarima da ponavljaju svoje pozicije, čak i one veoma pogrešne jer će doslednost biti mnogo važnija od zdravog razuma? A vi Amerikanci koji ste sa nama danas, zar se ne plašite da će vaši predsednici vladati na osnovu onoga što su izjavili tokom primarnih izbora?
I find this extremely important, because democracy is about people changing their views based on rational arguments and discussions. And we can lose this with the very noble idea to keep people accountable for showing the people that we're not going to tolerate politicians the opportunism in politics. So for me this is extremely important. And I do believe that when we're discussing politics these days, probably it makes sense to look also at this type of a story.
Smatram to izuzetno značajnim jer demokratija podrazumeva da ljudi menjaju svoja mišljenja na osnovu racionalnih argumenata i razgovora. Mogli bismo izgubiti ovu izuzetno plemenitu ideju zadržavanja odgovornosti radi pokazivanja netolerancije prema političarima za oportunizam. To je za mene izuzetno bitno. Verujem da kada danas razgovaramo o politici, verovatno ima smisla pogledati i ovu vrstu priče.
But also don't forget, any unveiling is also veiling. [Regardless of] how transparent our governments want to be, they're going to be selectively transparent. In a small country that could be my country, but could be also your country, they took a decision -- it is a real case story -- that all of the governmental decisions, discussions of the council of ministers, were going to be published on the Internet 24 hours after the council discussions took place. And the public was extremely all for it. So I had the opportunity to talk to the prime minister, why he made this decision. He said, "Listen, this is the best way to keep the mouths of my ministers closed. Because it's going to be very difficult for them to dissent knowing that 24 hours after this is going to be on the public space, and this is in a certain way going to be a political crisis."
Ali ne zaboravite da je svako otkrivanje istovremeno i skrivanje. Bez obzira na to koliko naše vlade žele da budu transparentne, one će biti selektivno transparentne. U maloj zemlji, koja bi lako mogla da bude moja zemlja, ali i vaša, doneli su odluku - ovo je istinita priča - da će sve odluke vlade i sve rasprave Saveta ministara biti objavljene na internetu 24 časa nakon rasprave. Javnost je u ogromnom broju bila za to. Tako sam imao priliku da razgovaram sa premijerom zbog čega je doneo takvu odluku. Rekao je: "Slušaj, ovo je najbolji način da začepim usta nekima od ministara jer će im biti jako teško da se usprotive znajući da će 24 časa nakon toga sve biti u javnosti, što bi zasigurno proizvelo političku krizu."
So when we talk about transparency, when we talk about openness, I really do believe that what we should keep in mind is that what went right is what went wrong. And this is Goethe, who is neither Bulgarian nor a political scientist, some centuries ago he said, "There is a big shadow where there is much light."
Tako da kada govorimo o transparentnosti, kada govorimo o otvorenosti, zaista smatram da ono što moramo imati na umu je da je ono što je dobro, istovremeno i loše. A ovo je rekao Gete, koji nije bio ni Bugarin, niti politikolog, pre nekoliko vekova: "Velika je sena tamo gde je dosta svetlosti."
Thank you very much.
Hvala vam mnogo.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)