About 12 years ago, I gave up my career in banking to try to make the world a safer place. This involved a journey into national and global advocacy and meeting some of the most extraordinary people in the world. In the process, I became a civil society diplomat.
大约是在12年前 我放弃了在银行的职业, 致力于世界安全事业。 于是我踏上了万国游踪, 全球倡议的征程, 与一些世界顶尖人物会面。 这个过程中, 我成为了一名公民社会的外交官。
Civil society diplomats do three things: They voice the concerns of the people, are not pinned down by national interests, and influence change through citizen networks, not only state ones. And if you want to change the world, we need more of them.
公民社会外交官有三个职能: 发出民众的声音, 不被国家利益牵制, 通过民众网络引导变革, 而不局限于国家网络。 如果你想要改变世界, 那么需要做的(工作)就更多。
But many people still ask, "Can civil society really make a big difference? Can citizens influence and shape national and global policy?" I never thought I would ask myself these questions, but here I am to share some lessons about two powerful civil society movements that I've been involved in. They are in issues that I'm passionate about: gun control and drug policy. And these are issues that matter here. Latin America is ground zero for both of them.
也许很多人还会问: “公民社会真的可以起这么大的作用? 公民真的可以影响并改变 国家和全球政策吗?” 我曾经以为我从不会自问这些个问题, 而现在我想与你们分享几点经验, 是我在参与两起有力的 公民社会运动中学到的。 他们分别是让我激情满怀的 枪支管控以及毒品政策。 这些正是这里存在的重大问题。 拉丁美洲是这两个问题的着地点。
For example, Brazil -- this beautiful country hosting TEDGlobal has the world's ugliest record. We are the number one champion in homicidal violence. One in every 10 people killed around the world is a Brazilian. This translates into over 56,000 people dying violently each year. Most of them are young, black boys dying by guns. Brazil is also one of the world's largest consumers of drugs, and the War on Drugs has been especially painful here. Around 50 percent of the homicides in the streets in Brazil are related to the War on Drugs. The same is true for about 25 percent of people in jail. And it's not just Brazil that is affected by the twin problems of guns and drugs. Virtually every country and city across Central and South America is in trouble. Latin America has nine percent of the world's population, but 25 percent of its global violent deaths.
比如,巴西—— 这个主持”TED全球“的美丽国家 却是世界上最劣迹斑斑的地方。 凶杀案数目位居榜首。 全世界每十个被害者中 就有一个是巴西人。 也就是说:每年有超过56000人 死于暴力事件。 其中绝大多数是被枪杀的 年轻黑人男孩。 巴西也是世界上最大的毒品消费国, 毒品战争在这里尤为惨痛。 巴西街头大约50%的杀人事件 都与毒品战争相关。 25%的在押犯人也与此有关。 其实并非只有巴西 受枪支与毒品这对孪生问题的影响。 事实上中美、南美的 每个国家和城市都在遭受这种困扰。 拉丁美洲拥有世界9%的人口, 而暴力死亡比例却高达全球的25%。
These are not problems we can run away from. I certainly could not. So the first campaign I got involved with started here in 2003 to change Brazil's gun law and to create a program to buy back weapons. In just a few years, we not only changed national legislation that made it much more difficult for civilians to buy a gun, but we collected and destroyed almost half a million weapons. This was one of the biggest buyback programs in history -- (Applause) -- but we also suffered some setbacks. We lost a referendum to ban gun sales to civilians in 2005.
这些问题是我们无法逃避的, 我当然也不能。 我参加的第一次运动是在这儿发起的, 那是2003年, 为了改变巴西的枪支管理法律, 以及发起一个回购枪支的运动。 短短几年, 我们不仅改变了国家的法律, 大大提高了民众购买枪支的难度, 而且还收集并销毁了近50万的枪支。 这是历史上最大规模的 回购枪支运动—— (掌声) 但后来我们也经历了一些阻碍—— 2005年,我们丧失了向民众 禁售枪支的投票权。
The second initiative was also home-grown, but is today a global movement to reform the international drug control regime. I am the executive coordinator of something called the Global Commission on Drug Policy. The commission is a high-level group of global leaders brought together to identify more humane and effective approaches to the issue of drugs. Since we started in 2008, the taboo on drugs is broken. Across the Americas, from the US and Mexico to Colombia and Uruguay, change is in the air.
第二次倡议也是在国内, 但今天,对国际毒品管控体制的改革 已经成为一项全球运动。 我本人是 全球毒品政策委员会的行政协理。 这个委员会是一个高级别工作组, 这里聚集了全球领导者,共同制定 更人道、更有效的毒品问题解决方案。 从2008年开始到现在, 毒品禁忌已经打破。 整个美洲,从美国到 墨西哥、古巴、乌拉圭, 变革随处可见。
But rather than tell you the whole story about these two movements, I just want to share with you four key insights. I call them lessons to change the world. There are certainly many more, but these are the ones that stand out to me.
但在这里我不讲有关 这两次运动的整个故事, 我只想与你们分享四个关键的见解。 我称它们是“改变世界的必修课”。 当然还有其它别的, 但这几个是让我最为印象深刻的。
So the first lesson is: Change and control the narrative. It may seem obvious, but a key ingredient to civil society diplomacy is first changing and then controlling the narrative. This is something that veteran politicians understand, but that civil society groups generally do not do very well. In the case of drug policy, our biggest success has been to change the discussion away from prosecuting a War on Drugs to putting people's health and safety first. In a cutting-edge report we just launched in New York, we also showed that the groups benefiting most from this $320 billion market are criminal gangs and cartels. So in order to undermine the power and profit of these groups, we need to change the conversation. We need to make illegal drugs legal. But before I get you too excited, I don't mean drugs should be a free-for-all. What I'm talking about, and what the Global Commission advocates for is creating a highly regulated market, where different drugs would have different degrees of regulation.
第一课是: 改变和控制话语权。 这也许是显而易见的, 但公民社会外交的要素 就是首先改变,并随后控制话语权。 政坛老手对之有着深刻的理解, 而公民社会团体通常 在这方面做的并不好。 在毒品政策的运动中, 我们最大的成功在于引导讨论, 从进行毒品战争到 首先强调公民的健康和安全。 刚刚在纽约发行的一份前沿报告中, 我们也指出:在这个3200亿的市场中, 受益最多的群体是犯罪团伙与黑帮。 所以说,为了逐渐削弱 这些群体的势力和利益, 我们需要改变对话方式, 需要改变毒品的非法性,使其合法化。 不过,大家别激动, 我并不是说应该让毒品市场自由化, 而是说,就像 全球毒品政策委员会倡导的那样: 创建一个高度管制的毒品市场, 不同毒品在这里受到不同程度的管制。
As for gun control, we were successful in changing, but not so much in controlling, the narrative. And this brings me to my next lesson: Never underestimate your opponents. If you want to succeed in changing the world, you need to know who you're up against. You need to learn their motivations and points of view. In the case of gun control, we really underestimated our opponents. After a very successful gun-collection program, we were elated. We had support from 80 percent of Brazilians, and thought that this could help us win the referendum to ban gun sales to civilians. But we were dead wrong. During a televised 20-day public debate, our opponent used our own arguments against us. We ended up losing the popular vote. It was really terrible. The National Rifle Association -- yes, the American NRA -- came to Brazil. They inundated our campaign with their propaganda, that as you know, links the right to own guns to ideas of freedom and democracy. They simply threw everything at us. They used our national flag, our independence anthem. They invoked women's rights and misused images of Mandela, Tiananmen Square, and even Hitler. They won by playing with people's fears. In fact, guns were almost completely ignored in their campaign. Their focus was on individual rights. But I ask you, which right is more important, the right to life or the right to have a gun that takes life away? (Applause)
就像枪支管制中那样, 我们实现了一些改变, 但并没有成功控制话语权。 这就给了我接下来的一课: 永远不要低估对手。 如果你想要成功改变世界, 你需要知道你的对手是谁, 了解他们的动机和观点。 在枪支管制的案例中, 我们的确是低估了对手。 成功回购枪支的运动之后, 我们兴高采烈。 我们拥有80%的巴西人民支持, 以为这个就可以使得我们 在向公民禁售枪支的 投票中稳操胜券。 但我们大错特错了。 在为期20天的媒体公开辩论中, 对手用我们的观点反驳我们, 使我们以输掉公众投票而告终。 这真的是极其惨重的失败。 全国步枪协会—— 是的,就是美国的NRA, 来到巴西。 他们的宣传几乎覆灭了我们的运动, 你知道, 他们让持枪权与 自由和民主搭上了关系。 他们轻而易举地把所有问题砸向我们。 他们使用我们的国旗, 我们的独立之歌。 他们借助女权, 滥用曼德拉,天安门广场, 甚至希特勒的图片。 他们借助操弄人们的 恐惧取得了胜利。 事实上,在他们的运动中 几乎完全绕开枪支, 而是把火力集中在个人权利上。 可是,我想问大家: 那种权力更重要呢? 是生命的权力? 还是夺取生命的持枪权? (掌声)
We thought people would vote in defense of life, but in a country with a recent past of military dictatorship, the anti-government message of our opponents resonated, and we were not prepared to respond.
我以为人们会为保护生命而投票, 但在一个不久前还受到 军事独裁统治的国家, 对手反政府的言辞得到了共鸣, 而我们完全没有准备好回应。
Lesson learned. We've been more successful in the case of drug policy. If you asked most people 10 years ago if an end to the War on Drugs was possible, they would have laughed. After all, there are huge military police prisons and financial establishments benefiting from this war. But today, the international drug control regime is starting to crumble. Governments and civil societies are experimenting with new approaches. The Global Commission on Drug Policy really knew its opposition, and rather than fighting them, our chair -- former Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso -- reached out to leaders from across the political spectrum, from liberals to conservatives. This high level group agreed to honestly discuss the merits and flaws of drug policies. It was this reasoned, informed and strategic discussion that revealed the sad truth about the War on Drugs. The War on Drugs has simply failed across every metric. Drugs are cheaper and more available than ever, and consumption has risen globally. But even worse, it also generated massive negative unintended consequences. It is true that some people have made these arguments before, but we've made a difference by anticipating the arguments of our opponents and by leveraging powerful voices that a few years ago would probably have resisted change.
我们收获了教训。 我们在毒品政策的运动中 更成功一些。 如果你要问十年前的人们, 要结束毒品战争是否有可能, 大多数人都会大笑的。 毕竟,那个时候有 大量的军队、警察、监狱, 以及金融机构,在这场战争中获利。 而今天,全球毒品的管理体制正在崩溃, 政府与公民社会团体正在试验新的策略。 全球毒品政策委员会 对对手再清楚不过了, 与其直接对抗,不如—— 像我们的前巴西总统 费尔南多·恩里克·卡多佐, 找到政界领袖们, 不论是自由派还是保守党。 这个高层团体同意真诚探讨 毒品政策的优点和弊端。 正是这次严谨、据实、 具有战略性的讨论, 揭露了毒品战争的悲哀现实。 毒品战争的确在方方面面都失败了, 毒品比从前更廉价、更易获取, 消费量也在全球性的增长。 还有更糟糕的, 它还带来了一系列预料之外的巨大恶果。 之前的确有人提过这些论点, 但我们不一样: 我们通过对对手论点的预测、 通过放大有力的声音, 来自那些数年前也许还在拒绝改变的人。
Third lesson: Use data to drive your argument. Guns and drugs are emotive issues, and as we've painfully learned in the gun referendum campaign in Brazil, sometimes it's impossible to cut through the emotions and get to the facts. But this doesn't mean that we shouldn't try. Until quite recently, we simply didn't know how many Brazilians were killed by guns. Amazingly, it was a local soap opera called "Mulheres Apaixonadas" -- or "Women in Love" -- that kicked off Brazil's national gun control campaign. In one highly viewed episode, a soap opera lead actress was killed by a stray bullet. Brazilian grannies and housewives were outraged, and in a case of art imitating life, this episode also included footage of a real gun control march that we had organized right here, outside in Copacabana Beach. The televised death and march had a huge impact on public opinion. Within weeks, our national congress approved the disarmament bill that had been languishing for years. We were then able to mobilize data to show the successful outcomes of the change in the law and gun collection program. Here is what I mean: We could prove that in just one year, we saved more than 5,000 lives.
我们学到的第三课是:让数据驱动你的论点。 枪支和毒品是会激发情绪的, 我们在巴西针对枪支的公民投票运动中 就得到过惨重的教训。 有的时候,想要破开情绪切入真相, 真的不可能。 但这并不意味着我们就应该无所作为。 直到不久前, 我们才知道有多少巴西人死在枪口上。 让人震惊的是,有一个当地的肥皂剧 叫做“Mulheres Apaixonadas”—— 或者是“恋爱中的女人”—— 它拉开了巴西国内枪支管制运动的序幕。 在收视率很高的一集中, 这个肥皂剧的女主角被一颗子弹误杀, 巴西奶奶们和家庭主妇们都被激怒了。 作为艺术刻画真实生活的例子, 这一集也有一些真实 枪支管制游行的镜头, 正是我们在这儿组织的那次, 在外面的科帕卡瓦納海滩。 影视中的死亡和游行 对公众看法产生了巨大影响。 几周内,国家议会通过了 那个折腾了好多年的缴械法案。 之后我们也能利用数据, 证实这项法令的修改和枪支回购运动 所带来的成功效果。 我想说的是—— 我们能够用事实证明在短短一年内, 我们就挽救了超过5000的生命。
(Applause)
(掌声)
And in the case of drugs, in order to undermine this fear and prejudice that surrounds the issue, we managed to gather and present data that shows that today's drug policies cause much more harm than drug use per se, and people are starting to get it.
在毒品案例中, 为了打破围绕这一问题的 一切恐惧和偏见, 我们通过收集并呈现数据, 展现毒品政策如何造成 比毒品本身更严重的伤害, 而人们也已经开始慢慢理解。
My fourth insight is: Don't be afraid to bring together odd bedfellows. What we've learned in Brazil -- and this doesn't only apply to my country -- is the importance of bringing diverse and eclectic folks together. If you want to change the world, it helps to have a good cross-section of society on your side. In both the case of guns and drugs, we brought together a wonderful mix of people. We mobilized the elite and got huge support from the media. We gathered the victims, human rights champions, cultural icons. We also assembled the professional classes -- doctors, lawyers, academia and more.
我学到的第四课是: 不要害怕聚集意见不同的伙伴。 我们在巴西学到的—— 这个不只适用于我们的国家: 就是不拘一格聚集 各界民众的重要性。 如果你想要改变世界, 拥有一个围绕你的跨领域团体, 会很有帮助。 在枪支和毒品的案例中, 我们有非常棒的人才聚集。 我们动员社会精英, 争取到了媒体的有力支持。 我们聚集受害者、人权决胜者 以及文化偶像。 我们还召集了各种职业群体—— 医生、律师、学者等等。
What I've learned over the last years is that you need coalitions of the willing and of the unwilling to make change. In the case of drugs, we needed libertarians, anti-prohibitionists, legalizers, and liberal politicians. They may not agree on everything; in fact, they disagree on almost everything. But the legitimacy of the campaign is based on their diverse points of view.
那些年我学到的就是: 你需要那些意见相左的人们组成联盟, 从而实现改变。 在毒品案例中, 我们需要自由主义者、 反禁者、立法人员 以及开明的政治家。 他们也许不会在每件事情上达成一致, 事实上,他们在几乎 所有事情上都有分歧。 但这项运动的合理性正是基于 他们多样化的观点。
Over a decade ago, I had a comfortable future working for an investment bank. I was as far removed from the world of civil society diplomacy as you can imagine. But I took a chance. I changed course, and on the way, I helped to create social movements that I believe have made some parts of the world safer. Each and every one of us has the power to change the world. No matter what the issue, and no matter how hard the fight, civil society is central to the blueprint for change.
十多年之前, 我为投资银行工作、 拥有一个舒适的未来。 我距离公民社会外交官是如此之远, 你们可以想象。 但是,我把握了一个机会, 改变了行进方向, 并且这一路上, 我为发起社会运动做贡献, 而我相信一些地方已经 变得更为安全了。 我们每个人都拥有改变世界的力量。 无论目标是什么, 无论这场奋斗如何艰难, 公民社会是变革蓝图的重心。
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
(Applause)
(掌声)