The future, as we know it, is very unpredictable. The best minds in the best institutions generally get it wrong. This is in technology. This is in the area of politics, where pundits, the CIA, MI6 always get it wrong. And it's clearly in the area of finance. With institutions established to think about the future, the IMF, the BIS, the Financial Stability Forum, couldn't see what was coming. Over 20,000 economists whose job it is, competitive entry to get there, couldn't see what was happening.
眾所皆知 未來難以預測 頂尖研究機構中的佼佼者 還常會犯錯 技術領域有過前例 (1958年IBM總裁:電腦根本沒有市場) 政治領域亦然 連智者、中情局、軍情六處 都會出錯 (07年政論名嘴:歐巴馬總統夢無望) 財經領域更是前科累累 (07年IMF: 整體風險前景似乎比過去半年低) 有些機構的工作是預測未來 但IMF,BIS或金融穩定論壇 都做不到 超過兩萬名經濟學家一起動腦 應該想得出辦法脫離困境 卻看不清前路
Globalization is getting more complex. And this change is getting more rapid. The future will be more unpredictable. Urbanization, integration, coming together, leads to a new renaissance. It did this a thousand years ago. The last 40 years have been extraordinary times. Life expectancy has gone up by about 25 years. It took from the Stone Age to achieve that. Income has gone up for a majority of the world's population, despite the population going up by about two billion people over this period. And illiteracy has gone down, from a half to about a quarter of the people on Earth. A huge opportunity, unleashing of new potential for innovation, for development.
全球化愈來愈複雜 越來越迅速 未來會變得更難以預料 都市化 區域整合 (全球化) 將一起型塑新的文藝復興時代 就像一千多年前發生過的一樣 過去40年意義非凡 平均壽命提升了大約25年 這是從石器時代累積至今的成果 收入提升 大部分人口生活改善 但人口數同時也增加了20億 文盲人數 從全人口的1/2下降至1/4 這是難得的機會 充滿無限可能 創新與發展皆大有可為
But there is an underbelly. There are two Achilles' heels of globalization. There is the Achilles' heel of growing inequality -- those that are left out, those that feel angry, those that are not participating. Globalization has not been inclusive. The second Achilles' heel is complexity -- a growing fragility, a growing brittleness. What happens in one place very quickly affects everything else. This is a systemic risk, systemic shock. We've seen it in the financial crisis. We've seen it in the pandemic flu. It will become virulent and it's something we have to build resilience against.
但全球化也有罩門 兩個致命的弱點 一個是日益嚴重的不平等 (國家間的不平等) 那些沒有享受到全球化益處的人 憤怒漸增 因為 全球化的果實不是人人有份 第二個是複雜性 全球體制越來越脆弱易碎 遷一髮而動全局 這是系統性的風險 金融風暴席捲、流感蔓延 都是明證 唯有堅強的韌性才能讓我們生存
A lot of this is driven by what's happening in technology. There have been huge leaps. There will be a million-fold improvement in what you can get for the same price in computing by 2030. That's what the experience of the last 20 years has been. It will continue. Our computers, our systems will be as primitive as the Apollo's are for today. Our mobile phones are more powerful than the total Apollo space engine. Our mobile phones are more powerful than some of the strongest computers of 20 years ago. So what will this do? It will create huge opportunities in technology. Miniaturization as well. There will be invisible capacity. Invisible capacity in our bodies, in our brains, and in the air. This is a dust mite on a nanoreplica.
這樣的發展大部分起因於科技 科技日新月異 以後只會發展更快 付出同樣的成本 資訊處裡的速度 在2030年會快100萬倍 這是過去20年的經驗 這種趨勢還會持續下去 未來 今天的電腦系統 會顯得粗糙 會像今天看阿波羅太空梭一樣 現在的手機已經超越太空梭引擎 還不只如此 現在的手機 比20年前某些最強的電腦還強大 這代表什麼? 無數機會有待科技業者開發 微型化也是一樣 看不見的東西現在也充滿機會 遍佈在人體、人腦和空氣中 這隻塵蟎 是奈米科技的複製品
This sort of ability to do everything in new ways unleashes potential, not least in the area of medicine. This is a stem cell that we've developed here in Oxford, from an embryonic stem cell. We can develop any part of the body. Increasingly, over time, this will be possible from our own skin -- able to replicate parts of the body. Fantastic potential for regenerative medicine. I don't think there will be a Special Olympics long after 2030, because of this capacity to regenerate parts of the body. But the question is, "Who will have it?"
老調新唱的能力 可以激發潛能 在醫學或任何其他領域都是如此 這個幹細胞 是在牛津發展而成的 利用胚胎幹細胞 可以培育出身體的任何部位 以後 我們可以用自己的皮膚 來複製身體其他的部位 這是再生醫學亟待開發的領域 身障奧運會2030年之後可能停辦 因為任何生理上的損傷都能修復 但問題是「誰能享有這一切?」
The other major development is going to be in the area of what can happen in genetics. The capacity to create, as this mouse has been genetically modified, something which goes three times faster, lasts for three times longer, we could produce, as this mouse can, to the age of our equivalent of 80 years, using about the same amount of food. But will this only be available for the super rich, for those that can afford it? Are we headed for a new eugenics? Will only those that are able to afford it be able to be this super race of the future? (Laughter)
另一個重要發展 是基因領域的發展 我們有能力把老鼠的基因改造 (比火車頭還厲害?超級鼠 vs 一般鼠) 讓牠跑得比一般老鼠快三倍 (後面:一般鼠 前面:超級鼠) (時速:20公尺/分鐘) 壽命比一般老鼠長三倍 活到相當於人類80歲的年齡 卻只要用同樣份量的食物餵養 (一般鼠出局) (總距離:0.2公里) 但是 能享受這些益處的 只有富人嗎? 這是新的優生學嗎? 只有那些負擔得起的人 能在未來成為超級種族嗎?(一小時後 超級鼠耐力依舊...) (笑聲)
So the big question for us is, "How do we manage this technological change?" How do we ensure that it creates a more inclusive technology, a technology which means that not only as we grow older, that we can also grow wiser, and that we're able to support the populations of the future? One of the most dramatic manifestations of these improvements will be moving from population pyramids to what we might term population coffins. There is unlikely to be a pension or a retirement age in 2030. These will be redundant concepts. And this isn't only something of the West.
所以當前最大的問題是 「我們如何因應科技上的改變?」 我們如何確保 在未來 能有人人可利用的科技 這樣的科技 不只在我們年歲漸長時 (人口老化是歐洲的最大問題) 讓我們更有智慧 也讓我們有能力 扶養未來的人口 眾多進步中 最顯著的例子 就是人口金字塔 (1950到2030年義大利人口結構圖) 可能會變成所謂的人口棺材 退休金或是退休年齡 在2030年都可能不復存在 這些觀念 東西方都覺得不合時宜
The most dramatic changes will be the skyscraper type of new pyramids that will take place in China and in many other countries. So forget about retirements if you're young. Forget about pensions. Think about life and where it's going to be going. Of course, migration will become even more important. The war on talent, the need to attract people at all skill ranges, to push us around in our wheelchairs, but also to drive our economies. Our innovation will be vital.
最戲劇的改變是 (1970至2030年 中國人口結構圖) 摩天大樓式的新金字塔 在中國跟其他許多國家出現 因此別期待退休了 年輕人 別指望退休金 多想想人生的方向 當然 移民會變得更重要 人才爭奪戰中 網羅的對象 各種專長的人才都包括 需要推輪椅的看護 也需要經濟導航者。創意將是關鍵
The employment in the rich countries will go down from about 800 to about 700 million of these people. This would imply a massive leap in migration. So the concerns, the xenophobic concerns of today, of migration, will be turned on their head, as we search for people to help us sort out our pensions and our economies in the future. And then, the systemic risks. We understand that these will become much more virulent, that what we see today is this interweaving of societies, of systems, fastened by technologies and hastened by just-in-time management systems. Small levels of stock push resilience into other people's responsibility.
就業狀況 在富裕國家 (就業人口預測) 會從8億人 降到7億人 這表示移民人數會大增 所以排外人士 對移民的擔憂 必須改變 因為我們需要人力 來解決 退休金以及未來經濟的問題 再來 是系統性風險 我們了解 這些風險將會日益嚴重 今天看到的 是息息相關的社會體系 透過科技相連 經由管理加強整合 自掃門前雪 只會讓大局無人主持
The collapse in biodiversity, climate change, pandemics, financial crises: these will be the currency that we will think about. And so a new awareness will have to arise, of how we deal with these, how we mobilize ourselves, in a new way, and come together as a community to manage systemic risk. It's going to require innovation. It's going to require an understanding that the glory of globalization could also be its downfall. This could be our best century ever because of the achievements, or it could be our worst. And of course we need to worry about the individuals, particularly the individuals that feel that they've been left out in one way or another.
生物多樣性遭破壞 氣候變遷、流行疾病與金融風暴 都是大局中不容小覷的影響因素 因此我們要有全新的體悟 學習如何處理問題 如何動員人力 用新方法 而且要通力合作 來管理系統性風險 這需要創意 需要理解 全球化的成果 也可能使它垮臺 21世紀可以是盛世 因為成就輝煌 也可能是最糟糕的世紀 當然 我們不能忽略個人 尤其是那些 覺得被遺棄的人
An individual, for the first time in the history of humanity, will have the capacity, by 2030, to destroy the planet, to wreck everything, through the creation, for example, of a biopathogen. How do we begin to weave these tapestries together? How do we think about complex systems in new ways? That will be the challenge of the scholars, and of all of us engaged in thinking about the future. The rest of our lives will be in the future. We need to prepare for it now. We need to understand that the governance structure in the world is fossilized. It cannot begin to cope with the challenges that this will bring. We have to develop a new way of managing the planet, collectively, through collective wisdom.
在人類歷史上 (生物性危險物品) 2030年 個人將首度有能力 毀滅地球 破壞一切 比如說 利用新創造的生物病原 我們要如何把這些片段連接起來? 如何用新思維檢視複雜的系统? 這個挑戰 不只學者們首當其衝 也是所有關心未來的人要思考的 面對未來 我們要及早準備 世界的治理架構已經陳腐過時 (誰來治理?) 無法應付全球化帶來的挑戰 我們必須找出新方法來管理地球 同心協力 集思廣益
We know, and I know from my own experience, that amazing things can happen, when individuals and societies come together to change their future. I left South Africa, and 15 years later, after thinking I would never go back, I had the privilege and the honor to work in the government of Nelson Mandela. This was a miracle. We can create miracles, collectively, in our lifetime. It is vital that we do so. It is vital that the ideas that are nurtured in TED, that the ideas that we think about look forward, and make sure that this will be the most glorious century, and not one of eco-disaster and eco-collapse. Thank you. (Applause)
你我都明白 經驗告訴我們 奇蹟會發生 如果個人和社會都決心 改變他們的未來 我離開南非15年後 (認為非洲民族議會將接管南非的是癡人說夢) 改變原本絕不再回去的決定 (1987年柴契爾夫人發言) 很榮幸地成為曼德拉政府的一員 這就是奇蹟 我們可以創造奇蹟 同心協力 在有生之年親見成果 這樣的努力是改變未來的關鍵 (2030年必知的六大議題) 眾多講者在TED分享的想法 我們自己腦袋裡的想法 都是期盼 盼望21世紀是光榮盛世 而不是生靈塗炭的黑暗世紀 謝謝各位 (掌聲)