When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology, the world changing, becoming more innovative. You think about the driverless. Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days, and I love the concept of a driverless car, but when I go in one, you know, I want it really slow, I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case. I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus. I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
各位來參加TED的演講, 心中想的大都是科技議題, 世界正在改變,變的更有創造力了。 各位可能會想到無人駕駛。 現在每個人都在討論 無人駕駛汽車, 我也喜歡無人駕駛汽車的概念, 但是說實話,當我走進去時, 我真的希望它開慢一點, 我希望在發生意外的時候, 我能親自操控方向盤和刹車。 我不知道在座的各位是怎麼想的, 至少我還沒有準備好登上無人駕駛巴士。 我也還沒有準備好 要乘坐無人駕駛的飛機。
How about a driverless world? And I ask you that because we are increasingly in one.
那麼,一個無人領導的世界會是怎樣呢? 我會這樣問的原因, 是因為我們都正逐漸融為一體。
It's not supposed to be that way. We're number one, the United States is large and in charge. Americanization and globalization for the last several generations have basically been the same thing. Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization or it's the IMF, the World Bank, the Bretton Woods Accord on currency, these were American institutions, our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards. That was the way the world worked.
本來事情不應該是這樣的。 我們是全球第一的國家, 我們美國喊水能結凍。 對於近年來的幾代人而言, 美國化和全球化基本上 談的都是同一件事,對吧? 不論是WTO 亦或是IMF、世界銀行、 布列敦森林的貨幣協定、 它們都是美國的機構, 我們的價值評斷、朋友、 同盟、貨幣、標準等 這就是這個世界運行的方式。
So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks, here it is. This is our view of how the world is run. President Obama has got the red carpet, he goes down Air Force One, and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable. Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week and the G20. Oh my God. Right? This is how we landed for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China. The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives on the tarmac -- no red carpet, kind of left out the bottom of the plane along with all the media and everybody else.
開玩笑說,如果你想知道 美國看起來是什麼樣的, 那麼這張圖就是了。 這就是我們美國人 對於世界如何運轉的印象, 奧巴馬總統踩著紅地毯 走下空軍一號, 這看起來很美妙,讓人感覺很舒服。 我不知道你們有多少人看過 上周總統的中國之行 與G20峰會的報導, 天啊, 在中國舉辦的全球峰會, 這麼重要的場合, 這就是我們總統著陸的方式? 國家安全顧問站在柏油路面上 直接開飆—— 總統沒有紅地毯鋪路, 就直接從飛機上下來, 還和媒體還有其他人混在一起!
Later on in the G20, well, there's Obama.
在稍後的G20會議中…… 好吧,這是奧巴馬總統
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Hi, George. Hi, Norman. They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right? And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria. That's what Putin wanted to talk about. He's increasingly calling the shots. He's the one willing to do stuff there. There's not a lot of mutual like or trust, but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.
「你好,喬治 」 「你好,諾曼 」 他們看起好像馬上就要對幹了,是不是? 的確,他們花了90分鐘 討論敘利亞的問題。 這也是普京想要討論的, 他超想開戰的, 他想成為歷史人物。 實際上他們並不互相喜歡或信任, 也不是我們美國喜歡對他指手畫腳。
How about when the whole 20 are getting together? Surely, when the leaders are all onstage, then the Americans are pulling their weight. Uh-oh.
那麼全部20國在一起的時候 又是什麼樣的? 誠然,當所有領導聚在一起 美國人就會仔細觀察他們的互動了。 噢哦
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Xi Jinping seems fine. Angela Merkel has -- she always does -- that look, she always does that. But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do, and Obama is like, what's going on over there?
習近平看起來氣色不錯, 安格拉·默克爾還是老樣子, 她一直看起來就那樣。 但是普京正在跟土耳其總統 埃爾多安交頭接耳, 奧巴馬看起來就像是在想, 他們兩個是不是準備要亂搞了?
You see. And the problem is it's not a G20, the problem is it's a G-Zero world that we live in, a world order where there is no single country or alliance that can meet the challenges of global leadership. The G20 doesn't work, the G7, all of our friends, that's history. So globalization is continuing. Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders faster and faster than ever before, but Americanization is not.
你看,問題不在G20, 真正的問題是 我們生活在一個G0的世界中, 一個沒有任何一個單獨的國家或聯盟 可以擔起領導全球重任的世界。 G20並沒有什麼實際用處, 由我們的盟友組成的G7 也成為歷史了。 但全球化仍在不斷繼續, 商品、服務、人員和資本 也在不斷跨境流動, 流動的越來越快,遠超從前, 但美國化並不是這樣。
So if I've convinced you of that, I want to do two things with the rest of this talk. I want to talk about the implications of that for the whole world. I'll go around it. And then I want to talk about what we think right here in the United States and in New York.
所以如果你也接受上述論點, 那麼我在剩下的 演講時間中做兩件事。 一是我想和各位談談 各地全球化的進展。 我會圍繞這個主題討論。 然後我會再進一步討論 身處在美國及紐約的我們是怎麼想的。
So why? What are the implications. Why are we here? Well, we're here because the United States, we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were failed. We don't want to do that anymore. We have large numbers of middle and working classes that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization, so they don't want to see it particularly. And we have an energy revolution where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to. We produce all that right here in the United States. So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security or the architect of global trade. The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values.
為什麼?這又有什麼影響? 我們今天為什麼會卡在這裡? 我們會卡在這裡, 是因為美國 花費兩萬億美元去打 伊拉克和阿富汗的戰爭, 然後我們失敗了。 我們再也不想做這樣的事情了, 我們有大量的中產和工人階級國民, 但他們並沒有感覺到承諾中的 全球化所帶來的好處。 尤其他們更不想再看到戰爭。 同時我們還在進行能源革命, 這使我們不再像往常那樣 依賴OPEC和中東的石油。 讓我們能自給自足。 所以美國不想 再做全球安全的護航者。 或者國際貿易的設計師。 美國人甚至不想去當全球價值觀的宣導者。
Well, then you look to Europe, and the most important alliance in the world has been the transatlantic relationship. But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II, all of the crises, the Brexit conversations, the hedging going on between the French and the Russians, or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.
好吧,你再去看歐洲—— 我們在大西洋對岸的, 最重要的盟友。 它自二戰以來正每況愈下,危機頻發: 英國脫歐, 法俄衝突, 還有德國-土耳其衝突和英中之間的不愉快。
China does want to do more leadership. They do, but only in the economic sphere, and they want their own values, standards, currency, in competition with that of the US. The Russians want to do more leadership. You see that in Ukraine, in the Baltic states, in the Middle East, but not with the Americans. They want their own preferences and order. That's why we are where we are.
中國的確想更進一步的領導全球, 他們真的有在想, 但只想在經濟領域上。 中國更加希望的是, 自己的價值觀、標準和貨幣, 能夠與美國競爭。 俄羅斯確實想更有領袖地位。 看看他們在烏克蘭 以及波羅的海諸國還有中東所做的。 但那些都和美國無關, 他們想獨樹一幟,獨掌大權。 這就是為什麼我們卡在這裡。
So what happens going forward? Let's start easy, with the Middle East.
所以接下來世界會發生什麼? 我們先從簡單的開始討論, 就從中東開始吧。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
You know, I left a little out, but you get the general idea. Look, there are three reasons why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right? One is because there was a willingness to provide some level of military security by the US and allies. Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground because oil was expensive. And number three was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent. They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will to really rise up against.
你們知道的,我只是點撥一下, 但你們會不約而同地想到中東的穩定問題。 你看,有三個原因, 說明了中東過去 曾經穩定的原因,是不是? 一是他們當時願意, 讓美國及其盟友 提供一定程度的軍事安全保障。 第二,中東遍地黃金, 因為石油曾相當昂貴。 第三點: 不論中東的領導人是多麼差勁, 當地人口數量卻相對穩定。 他們不能、也不想, 互相敵對。
Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world, all three of those things are increasingly not true, and so failed states, terrorism, refugees and the rest. Does the entire Middle East fall apart? No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time. But generally speaking, it's not a good look.
但,對於一個G0的世界,我可以說: 這三個理由正逐漸失效。 所以失敗的國家、恐怖主義、 難民還有其他事故開始出現。 然而整個中東四分五裂了麼? 並不,庫爾德人做得更好一些, 伊拉克、以色列、伊朗也會逐漸好起來。 但總體上說,中東依舊不是很好。
OK, how about this guy? He's playing a poor hand very well. There's no question he's hitting above his weight. But long term -- I didn't mean that. But long term, long term, if you think that the Russians were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders when we said they weren't going to, and the EU encroaching them, just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in. The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs. In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
好,那普京這傢伙如何呢? 他簡直一塌糊塗。 毫無疑問他好高騖遠。 但長期——我不是有意要這麼說 ——從長期而言, 如果你認為俄羅斯是被 美國和歐盟所挑倖, 讓北約組織擴軍到 他們的國界附近。 當時我們說他們不會這樣做。 且有歐盟在蠶食他們, 只要等中國花數千億美元, 投入到俄羅斯周邊 他們認為擁有影響力的國家, 中國就能從中獲益 而俄羅斯只能撿剩下的。 在這個G0的世界中 普京先生未來10年會非常難熬。
It's not all bad. Right? Asia actually looks a lot better. There are real leaders across Asia, they have a lot of political stability. They're there for a while. Mr. Modi in India, Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power, the most powerful leader in China since Mao. Those are the three most important economies in Asia. Now look, there are problems in Asia. We see the sparring over the South China Sea. We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days, tested yet another nuclear weapon. But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need to wave the flag, to go xenophobic, to actually allow escalation of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions. They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth. And that's what they're actually doing.
這還是有點好的,對麼? 亞洲看起來更好一點, 那裡有真正的領導者, 那邊有著相當的政治穩定, 而且保持了一段時間。 印度的莫迪總理、 安倍晉三,可能要取得第三個任期的 日本自由民主黨黨魁、 當然還有習近平—— 他正在鞏固自己的權力, 他是自毛澤東以來最具影響力的, 中國領導人 ——他們領導著三個最重要的亞洲經濟體。 但是現在,亞洲也沒法獨善其身: 我們可以看到南海衝突頻發, 可以看到北韓的金正日在幾天前 又一次測試了新核武器。 但是這些亞洲領導人認為, 他們無需發揮領導力 去排除外部勢力, 他們坐視事態擴大。 在面對跨國政治和邊境衝突的時候, 他們著眼於長期經濟穩定與增長, 而這也正是他們正在做的。
Let's turn to Europe. Europe does look a little scared in this environment. So much of what is happening in the Middle East is washing up quite literally onto European shores. You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism across all of the European states.
轉到歐洲。 歐洲看起來似乎被 現在的國際環境嚇到了, 所以那些發生在中東的事情, 毫不誇張地說, 已經波及到了歐洲邊境。 你們可以看到欧洲人對英國脫歐 還有民粹主義的關注 已經遍及了歐洲全境。
Let me tell you that over the long term, in a G-Zero world, European expansion will be seen to have gone too far. Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East, and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized, that would be less of a problem, but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia and nearest the Middle East actually have different economic capabilities, different social stability and different political preferences and systems than core Europe. So Europe was able to truly expand under the G7, but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller. Core Europe around Germany and France and others will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated. But the periphery, countries like Greece and Turkey and others, will not look that good at all.
要我說,長期而言, 在G0的世界中, 歐洲的擴張太快了。 歐洲現在十分靠近俄羅斯和中東, 如果這個世界真的變得 更加扁平化及美國化, 這不值一提。 但對於G0的世界來說, 那些緊鄰俄羅斯和中東的國家, 他們實際上與歐洲核心 有著不同的經濟量體、 不同的社會穩定因素、 以及不同的政治觀點與系統。 所以歐盟確實可以在 G7的幫助下進行擴張, 但是對於G0,歐洲會重新縮小。 圍繞著德法的歐洲核心國家, 能依舊正常運行, 依舊穩定、富裕、互相補益。 但那些周邊國家, 就像希臘、土耳其還有其他的一些, 可能就會很糟糕了。
Latin America, a lot of populism, made the economies not go so well. They had been more opposed to the United States for decades. Increasingly, they're coming back. We see that in Argentina. We see it with the openness in Cuba. We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls. We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there. The only place you see that is moving in another direction is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peña Nieto. There you could actually see a slip away from the United States over the coming years. The US election matters a lot on that one, too.
拉丁美洲,民粹主義的樂園, 經濟被搞得差強人意。 幾十年間他們都對美國陽奉陰違, 但是現在,他們逐漸地靠攏回來了。 我們可以看到阿根廷的變化、 看到古巴的開放、 看到委內瑞拉的馬杜羅下臺、 看到發生在巴西的彈劾、 並最終看到一個新的合法總統當選。 唯一頑固不化的地方, 是墨西哥,總統佩尼亞·尼托正失去民意。 在接下來的幾年中, 你將看到他們逐漸離了美國單幹。 儘管美國大選 會對那裡會產生巨大的影響。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Africa, right? A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally. In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time for a few African countries, those governed well with a lot of urbanization, a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce, entrepreneurship taking off. But for most of the countries in Africa, it's going to be a lot more dicey: extreme climate conditions, radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity, very poor governance, borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration. Those countries can fall off the map. So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on between the winners and the losers across Africa.
非洲, 很多人說接下來十年是非洲的十年。 在這個G0的世界中, 對少數非洲國家而言, 這無疑會是一個令人驚奇的時代。 那些「少數國家」施政良好、 同時城市化進程較快, 還有大量富有智慧的國民, 那裡婦女真正地有活可幹, 創業也蓬勃興起。 但對於大多數非洲國家, 這無疑是場冒險: 他們要面對極端氣候環境、 來自伊斯蘭教和基督教的激進主義、 乏善可陳的統治、 無法禦敵於國門之外、 甚至大量強行吞併…… 那些國家可能從地圖上消失。 所以你將會看到巨大的隔閡逐漸產生, 它橫貫於非洲的勝利者與失敗者之間。
Finally, back to the United States. What do I think about us? Because there are a lot of upset people, not here at TEDx, I know, but in the United States, my God, after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset. I understand that. But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken, we don't trust the establishment, we hate the media." Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.
最後,讓我們回歸美國。 我們怎麼看自己的國家的? 這裡有大量對政治失望的人, 當然我知道不會出現在這個TEDx會場裡。 但是他們遍佈美國,天啊! 在15個月的競選長跑後 我們會變得失望, 我能理解這個心情。 但是很多人失望地說: 「華盛頓變差了」 「我們不相信當權者」 「我們痛恨媒體」 哎,像我這樣的全球主義者,
Look, I do think we have to recognize,
都會把這些話掛在嘴邊。
my fellow campers, that when you are being chased by the bear, in the global context, you need not outrun the bear, you need to only outrun your fellow campers.
注意!我認為我們必須認清, 我們與和我們一同野營的國家夥伴們, 當一同被某頭危機巨熊追逐著的時候, 我們不需要跑過那頭巨熊, 只需要跑過那些夥伴, 讓他們成為被吃掉的就好了。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Now, I just told you about our fellow campers. Right? And from that perspective, we look OK. A lot of people in that context say, "Let's go dollar. Let's go New York real estate. Let's send our kids to American universities." You know, our neighbors are awesome: Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water. You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that? Those are awesome neighbors.
現在,我剛剛跟你們分析過, 我們那些夥伴的糟糕情況。 不是麼?從這個角度來看, 我們做的超棒的。 很多人在現在都說, 「我們去賺得美元」 「我們去紐約買房」 「我們去把我們的孩子送進美國的大學」 眾所周知,我們的鄰居都很出色: 加拿大,墨西哥,還有兩灘海水。 你們知不知道土耳其做夢都想 擁有這樣的鄰居? 他們確實都是好鄰居!
Terrorism is a problem in the United States. God knows we know it here in New York. But it's a much bigger problem in Europe than the US. It's a much bigger problem in the Middle East than it is in Europe. These are factors of large magnitude. We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we're complaining bitterly about it. You know why? Because they can't swim here. Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees. The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right? That's not the situation. That's the reality of the United States.
在美國,恐怖主義確實是個問題, 任誰都知道身處紐約的我們知道這些。 但對於歐洲而言這更是一個問題。 和歐洲比起來, 中東問題更大了。 這其中有大尺度的因素, 我們剛剛接受了一萬名敘利亞難民, 而且我們對此抱怨不斷。 知道為什麼麼? 因為他們沒有辦法游到這裡。 對麼?我的意思是,土耳其會很樂於看見 他們只需接收一萬名難民, 對於約旦人、德國人 和英國人也是,不是麼? 這不是假設, 美國現在就是這樣。
Now, that sounds pretty good. Here's the challenge. In a G-Zero world, the way you lead is by example. If we know we don't want to be the global cop anymore, if we know we're not going to be the architect of global trade, we're not going to be the cheerleader of global values, we're not going to do it the way we used to, the 21st century is changing, we need to lead by example -- be so compelling that all these other people are going to still say, it's not just they're faster campers. Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be. We want to emulate them.
現在,一切似乎都很好。 那麼接下來就輪到挑戰了。 在這個G0的世界中, 你要領導世界的方式, 就是要當楷模。 如果我們知道,我們不想再 擔任維持秩序的警察角色、 不會再擔任全球貿易的建築師、 那我們會失去擔任價值觀引領者的角色。 我們的行事作風要變一變了。 21世紀正在改變, 我們需要擔起楷模 ——那是多麼多令人嚮往。 其他國人都仍將引以為豪, 並不是因為他們跑得快, 即使巨熊不再追著我們, 這裡仍是個好地方, 我們想要效仿他們。
The election process this year is not proving a good option for leading by example. Hillary Clinton says it's going to be like the '90s. We can still be that cheerleader on values. We can still be the architect of global trade. We can still be the global sheriff. And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the '30s. He's saying, "Our way or the highway. You don't like it, lump it." Right? Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero, which is that even though the US is not in decline, it is getting objectively harder for the Americans to impose their will, even have great influence, on the global order.
今年的選舉, 並沒有一個很好的候選人, 能夠引領美國。 希拉莉·克林頓說 美國會像90年代那樣, 我們依舊會是價值觀宣導者、 我們依舊會是是全球貿易的建築師、 我們依舊會是世界警察。 而川普想把我們帶回30年代, 他說:「我們的路或者高速公路。 你不高興也得忍耐」,不是麼? 他們兩個都沒有認清 G0世界的根本真理, 這真理就算美國也沒有否認: 客觀而言,一切正變得更加困難, 不論是對外施加意志 還是在世界秩序上取得更大的影響力。
Are we prepared to truly lead by example? What would we have to do to fix this after November, after the next president comes in? Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond. A depression would do that. Another global financial crisis could do this. God forbid, another 9/11 could do that. Or, absent crisis, we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges that are growing and growing in the United States, are themselves urgent enough to force our leaders to change, and that we have those voices. Through our cell phones, individually, we have those voices to compel them to change.
我們真的有做好 用模範引領世界的準備了麼? 我們應該如何去修正這些錯誤? 在11月大選之後? 在新一任總統進入白宮之後? 我們必須面對另一個危機 來迫使我們作出反應。 一場全民狂踩總統的大失望可以做到、 或者再一次的全球金融危機也行、 求上帝原諒, 再來一次九一一襲擊事件也可以。 或者,如果沒有危機發生, 我們需要認清空洞化、 不平等以及新的挑戰 正逐漸在美國生根發芽。 我們有足夠的緊迫感嗎? 足夠到迫使我們的領導人去改變。 民意的聲音可以迫使他們改變, 透過我們每個人的電話, 我們用自己的聲音 去強迫他們改變。
There is, of course, a third choice, perhaps the most likely one, which is that we do neither of those things, and in four years time you invite me back, and I will give this speech yet again.
當然,還有第三種選擇, 也是最有可能的選擇。 而那個選擇就是 我們什麼都不做, 四年後你們再度邀我過來, 然後我再念一遍稿子。
Thank you very, very much.
謝謝,非常感謝!
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