When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology, the world changing, becoming more innovative. You think about the driverless. Everyone's talking about driverless cars these days, and I love the concept of a driverless car, but when I go in one, you know, I want it really slow, I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case. I don't know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus. I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
Kada dođete na TEDx, uvek pomislite na tehnologiju, svet koji se menja, povećanje inovativnosti. Razmišljate o automobilima bez vozača. Svi ovih dana govore o samoupravljajućim automobilima, i ja obožavam zamisao samoupravljajućeg automobila, ali kada uđem u njega, znate, želim da bude veoma spor i želim pristup volanu i kočnici, za svaki slučaj. Ne znam kako je kod vas, ali ja nisam spreman za autobus bez vozača. Nisam spreman za avion bez vozača.
How about a driverless world? And I ask you that because we are increasingly in one.
Šta je sa svetom bez vozača? Pitam vas to jer smo sve više u takvom svetu.
It's not supposed to be that way. We're number one, the United States is large and in charge. Americanization and globalization for the last several generations have basically been the same thing. Right? Whether it's the World Trade Organization or it's the IMF, the World Bank, the Bretton Woods Accord on currency, these were American institutions, our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards. That was the way the world worked.
Ne bi trebalo da bude tako. Na prvom smo mestu, Sjedinjene Države su velike i predvode. Amerikanizacija i globalizacija su proteklih nekoliko generacija u suštini bile jedno isto. Zar ne? Bilo da je u pitanju Svetska trgovinska organizacija, MMF, Svetska banka ili Brentonvudski sporazum o valutama, to su američke institucije, naše vrednosti, naši prijatelji, naši saveznici, naš novac i standardi. Tako je svet funkcionisao.
So it's sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks, here it is. This is our view of how the world is run. President Obama has got the red carpet, he goes down Air Force One, and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable. Well, I don't know how many of you saw the China trip last week and the G20. Oh my God. Right? This is how we landed for the most important meeting of the world's leaders in China. The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives on the tarmac -- no red carpet, kind of left out the bottom of the plane along with all the media and everybody else.
Nekako je zanimljivo, ako želite da pogledate kako SAD izgleda, evo slike. Ovo je naše sagledavanje načina na koji se upravlja svetom. Predsednik Obama ima crveni tepih, silazi sa predsedničkog aviona i prilično je dobar osećaj, to deluje prilično prijatno. Ne znam koliko je vas videlo put u Kinu prošle nedelje i G20. O, moj bože. Evo kako smo sletelii na najvažniji sastanak svetskih lidera u Kini. Savetnica za nacionalnu bezbednost je zapravo psovala na mestu doletanja - nije bilo crvenog tepiha, nekako zapostavljen donji deo aviona zajedno sa svim medijima i svima ostalima.
Later on in the G20, well, there's Obama.
Kasnije na samitu G20, pa, eto Obame.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Hi, George. Hi, Norman. They look like they're about to get into a cage match, right? And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria. That's what Putin wanted to talk about. He's increasingly calling the shots. He's the one willing to do stuff there. There's not a lot of mutual like or trust, but it's not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.
Zdravo, Džordže. Zdravo, Normane. Izgledaju kao da će upravo započeti bokserski meč, zar ne? I jesu. Trajao je 90 minuta i razgovarali su o Siriji. O tome je Putin hteo da pričaju. On sve više drži konce u svojim rukama. On je taj koji je tu voljan da sprovodi stvari. Nema mnogo uzajamnog dopadanja niti poverenja, ali ne može se reći da mu Amerikanci govore šta treba da radi.
How about when the whole 20 are getting together? Surely, when the leaders are all onstage, then the Americans are pulling their weight. Uh-oh.
A kada se okupe svih 20 članica? Svakako, kada su svi lideri na sceni, tada Amerikanci ispunjavaju svoj deo posla. O, ne.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Xi Jinping seems fine. Angela Merkel has -- she always does -- that look, she always does that. But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do, and Obama is like, what's going on over there?
Si Đinpin deluje u redu. Angela Merkel ima, kao i uvek, taj pogled, što uvek radi. Putin govori turskom predsedniku Erdoganu šta da radi, a Obama se pita šta se dešava tamo.
You see. And the problem is it's not a G20,
Vidite.
the problem is it's a G-Zero world that we live in, a world order where there is no single country or alliance that can meet the challenges of global leadership. The G20 doesn't work, the G7, all of our friends, that's history. So globalization is continuing. Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders faster and faster than ever before, but Americanization is not.
A problem je što to nije G20, problem je u tome što je svet u kome živimo G0, svetski poredak u kome ne postoji jedna država ili savez koji može da izađe na kraj sa izazovima globalnog liderstva. G20 ne funkcioniše, G7, svi naši prijatelji, to je prošlost. Dakle, globalizacija se nastavlja. Roba, usluge, ljudi i kapital kreću se preko granica brže nego ikada ranije, ali ne i amerikanizacija.
So if I've convinced you of that, I want to do two things with the rest of this talk. I want to talk about the implications of that for the whole world. I'll go around it. And then I want to talk about what we think right here in the United States and in New York.
Ako sam vas ubedio u to, želim da postignem dve stvari u ostatku govora. Želim da govorim o implikacijama toga za ceo svet. Ići ću širom sveta. Zatim želim da govorim o onome šta mi mislimo ovde, u Sjedinjenim Državama i Njujorku.
So why? What are the implications. Why are we here? Well, we're here because the United States, we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were failed. We don't want to do that anymore. We have large numbers of middle and working classes that feel like they've not benefited from promises of globalization, so they don't want to see it particularly. And we have an energy revolution where we don't need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to. We produce all that right here in the United States. So the Americans don't want to be the global sheriff for security or the architect of global trade. The Americans don't want to even be the cheerleader of global values.
Dakle, zašto? Koje su implikacije? Zašto smo ovde? Pa, ovde smo jer su Sjedinjene Države, tj. mi smo potrošili dva biliona dolara na ratove u Iraku i Avganistanu koji su propali. Ne želimo da to više radimo. Imamo veliki broj pripadnika srednje i radničke klase koji smatraju da nisu imali koristi od obećanja globalizacije, tako da nemaju naročitu želju da je vide. Imamo i revoluciju energije gde nam više nije potreban OPEK na Srednjem Istoku kao nekada. Sve to proizvodimo upravo ovde u Sjedinjenim Državama. Dakle, Amerikanci ne žele da budu svetski šerifi za bezbednost niti graditelji svetske trgovine. Amerikanci čak ne žele da budu ni navijači za globalne vrednosti.
Well, then you look to Europe, and the most important alliance in the world has been the transatlantic relationship. But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II, all of the crises, the Brexit conversations, the hedging going on between the French and the Russians, or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.
Onda pogledate Evropu, i najvažniji savez na svetu bila je prekoatlantska veza. Međutim, sada je slabija neko ikada još od Prvog svetskog rata - sve te krize, razgovori o Bregzitu, mere zaštite koje su se odvijale između Francuza i Rusa, Nemaca i Turaka, ili Britanaca i Kineza.
China does want to do more leadership. They do, but only in the economic sphere, and they want their own values, standards, currency, in competition with that of the US. The Russians want to do more leadership. You see that in Ukraine, in the Baltic states, in the Middle East, but not with the Americans. They want their own preferences and order. That's why we are where we are.
Kina želi da se više bavi liderstvom. Oni to žele, ali samo u ekonomskom domenu, i žele svoje vrednosti, standarde, valutu, u konkurenciji sa onima u SAD-u. Rusija želi da se više bavi liderstvom. Vidite to u Ukrajini, u baltičkim zemljama, na Srednjem istoku, ali ne i kod Amerikanaca. Oni žele ono što njima odgovara i sopstveno uređenje. Zato se nalazimo tu gde smo.
So what happens going forward? Let's start easy, with the Middle East.
Šta se dalje dešava? Počnimo polako, sa Srednjim istokom.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
You know, I left a little out, but you get the general idea. Look, there are three reasons why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right? One is because there was a willingness to provide some level of military security by the US and allies. Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground because oil was expensive. And number three was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent. They didn't have the ability, and many didn't have the will to really rise up against.
Znate, izostavio sam ponešto, ali imate opštu predstavu. Vidite, postoje tri razloga zbog kojih je Srednji istok imao stabilnost kakvu je imao, u redu? Jedan je jer je postojala spremnost da se obezbedi izvestan nivo vojne bezbednosti od strane SAD-a i saveznika. Kao drugo, bilo je jednostavno iskopati lak novac jer je nafta bila skupa. A kao treće, koliko god da su lideri bili loši, stanovništvo je relativno mirovalo. Nisu bili u stanju, a mnogi nisu imali volje da se zaista suprotstave.
Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world, all three of those things are increasingly not true, and so failed states, terrorism, refugees and the rest. Does the entire Middle East fall apart? No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time. But generally speaking, it's not a good look.
Pa, mogu vam reći, u svetu sa G0, te tri stvari sve više ne važe, pa stoga proizilaze propale države, terorizam, izbeglice i ostalo. Da li se čitav Srednji istok raspada? Ne, Kurdi će napredovati, kao i Irak, Izrael i Iran vremenom. Ipak, uopšteno govoreći, nisu dobri izgledi.
OK, how about this guy? He's playing a poor hand very well. There's no question he's hitting above his weight. But long term -- I didn't mean that. But long term, long term, if you think that the Russians were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders when we said they weren't going to, and the EU encroaching them, just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in. The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs. In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
U redu, a šta je sa ovim tipom? On baš dobro igra sa lošim kartama. Nema sumnje da je zagrizao više nego što može da sažvaće. Međutim, na duže staze - nisam to mislio. Ipak, dugoročno gledano, ako mislite da je Ruse naljutilo to što su SAD i Evropa proširili NATO sve do njihovih granica kada smo rekli da neće tako biti, kao i zadiranje Evropske Unije, čekajte samo kada Kinezi ulože stotine milijardi dolara u svaku zemlju oko Rusije u kojoj su mislili da imaju uticaj. Kinezi će dominirati njome. Rusi skupljaju mrvice. U svetu sa G0, to će biti vrlo napetih 10 godina za gospodina Putina.
It's not all bad. Right? Asia actually looks a lot better. There are real leaders across Asia, they have a lot of political stability. They're there for a while. Mr. Modi in India, Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power, the most powerful leader in China since Mao. Those are the three most important economies in Asia. Now look, there are problems in Asia. We see the sparring over the South China Sea. We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days, tested yet another nuclear weapon. But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need to wave the flag, to go xenophobic, to actually allow escalation of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions. They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth. And that's what they're actually doing.
Nije sve tako loše, zar ne? Azija zapravo deluje prilično bolje. Postoje pravi lideri širom Azije i imaju dosta političke stabilnosti. Tu su već duže vreme. Gospodin Modi u Indiji, gospodin Abe, koji će verovatno upravo zabeležiti treći mandat u Liberalnoj demokratskoj stranci u Japanu, naravno, Si Đinping koji učvršćuje ogromnu moć, najmoćniji lider u Kini još od Maoa. To su tri najvažnije ekonomije u Aziji. No, vidite, postoje problemi u Aziji. Vidimo sukobe oko Južnog kineskog mora. Vidimo da je Kim Džong Un, pre samo par dana, testirao još jedno nuklearno oružje. Ipak, lideri u Aziji ne osećaju potrebu da mašu zastavama, da se okrenu ksenofobiji, da uopšte dozvole širenje geopolitičkih i prekograničnih napetosti. Žele da se usredsrede na dugoročnu ekonomsku stabilnost i razvoj. To je ono što zapravo i rade.
Let's turn to Europe. Europe does look a little scared in this environment. So much of what is happening in the Middle East is washing up quite literally onto European shores. You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism across all of the European states.
Osvrnimo se na Evropu. Evropa zaista izgleda pomalo uplašeno u ovom okruženju. Toliko dešavanja na Srednjem istoku bukvalno se obrušava na evropske obale. Vidite Bregzit i vidite zabrinutost populizma širom evropskih država.
Let me tell you that over the long term, in a G-Zero world, European expansion will be seen to have gone too far. Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East, and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized, that would be less of a problem, but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia and nearest the Middle East actually have different economic capabilities, different social stability and different political preferences and systems than core Europe. So Europe was able to truly expand under the G7, but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller. Core Europe around Germany and France and others will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated. But the periphery, countries like Greece and Turkey and others, will not look that good at all.
Mogu vam reći da će na duže staze, u svetu sa G0, širenje Evrope biti sagledavano kao da je otišlo predaleko. Evropa je otišla skroz gore do Rusije, stigla skroz dole do Srednjeg istoka, i kada bi svet zaista postao ravniji i amerikanizovaniji, to bi bio manji problem, ali u svetu sa G0, te zemlje koje su najbliže Rusiji i najbliže Srednjem istoku imaju različite ekonomske mogućnosti, različitu društvenu stabilnost i različite političke preferencije i sisteme od središnje Evrope. Evropa je uspela da se zaista proširi pod upravom G7, ali pod G0, Evropa će se smanjiti. Središnja Evropa oko Nemačke, Francuske i ostalih i dalje će funkcionisati i biti stabilna, bogata i integrisana. Međutim, periferija, zemlje kao što su Grčka, Turska i druge, uopšte neće tako dobro izgledati.
Latin America, a lot of populism, made the economies not go so well. They had been more opposed to the United States for decades. Increasingly, they're coming back. We see that in Argentina. We see it with the openness in Cuba. We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls. We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there. The only place you see that is moving in another direction is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peña Nieto. There you could actually see a slip away from the United States over the coming years. The US election matters a lot on that one, too.
U Latinskoj Americi zbog mnogo populizma ekonomija ne ide tako dobro. Decenijama više stoje nasuprot Sjedinjenim Državama. Sve više se vraćaju. To vidimo u Argentini. To vidimo sa otvorenošću na Kubi. Videćemo to i u Venecueli kada padne Maduro. Videćemo to i u Brazilu nakon zbacivanja predsednika i kada tamo konačno vidimo izabranog novog legitimnog predsednika. Jedino mesto koje vidite da ide u drugom pravcu je nepopularnost meksičkog predsednika Penje Nijeta. Tu biste zapravo mogli videti udaljavanje od Sjedinjenih Država tokom predstojećih godina. Izbori u SAD-u su takođe veoma važni za to.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Africa, right? A lot of people have said it's going to be Africa's decade, finally. In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time for a few African countries, those governed well with a lot of urbanization, a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce, entrepreneurship taking off. But for most of the countries in Africa, it's going to be a lot more dicey: extreme climate conditions, radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity, very poor governance, borders you can't defend, lots of forced migration. Those countries can fall off the map. So you're really going to see an extreme segregation going on between the winners and the losers across Africa.
Afrika... Mnogo ljudi je reklo da će doći decenija Afrike, konačno. U svetu sa G0, nastaće neverovatan period za nekoliko afričkih zemalja, one koje imaju dobru upravu sa dosta urbanizacije, mnogo pametnih ljudi, ženama koje ulaze u svet rada, gde je preduzetništvo u usponu. Međutim, za većinu zemalja u Africi, biće mnogo nezgodnije - ekstremni klimatski uslovi, radikalizam islama i hrišćanstva, vrlo loša vladavina, granice koje se ne mogu odbraniti, mnogo prinudne migracije. Te zemlje mogu da nestanu sa mape. Dakle, zaista ćete videti kako se dešava ekstremna podela između pobednika i gubitnika širom Afrike.
Finally, back to the United States. What do I think about us? Because there are a lot of upset people, not here at TEDx, I know, but in the United States, my God, after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset. I understand that. But a lot of people are upset because they say, "Washington's broken, we don't trust the establishment, we hate the media." Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.
Najzad, vratimo se Sjedinjenim Državama. Šta mislim o nama? Pošto ima mnogo uznemirenih ljudi, ne ovde na TEDx-u, znam, već u Sjedinjenim Državama, o, bože, posle 15 meseci kampanja, treba da budemo uznemireni. Razumem to. Međutim, mnogi su uznemireni jer kažu: „Vašington je uništen, ne verujemo institucijama, mrzimo medije.“ Čak i globalisti poput mene su na udaru.
Look, I do think we have to recognize, my fellow campers, that when you are being chased by the bear, in the global context, you need not outrun the bear, you need to only outrun your fellow campers.
Vidite, smatram da treba da prepoznamo, drugovi kamperi, da kada vas juri medved, u globalnom kontekstu, ne morate da brže trčite od medveda, treba samo da trčite brže od svojih drugova kampera.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Now, I just told you about our fellow campers. Right? And from that perspective, we look OK. A lot of people in that context say, "Let's go dollar. Let's go New York real estate. Let's send our kids to American universities." You know, our neighbors are awesome: Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water. You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that? Those are awesome neighbors.
Upravo sam vam govorio o našim drugovima kamperima. Iz te perspektive, delujemo u redu. Mnogi u tom kontekstu kažu: „Hajde da se usmerimo na dolar. Krenimo na njujorške nekretnine. Pošaljimo decu na američke univerzitete.“ Znate, naši susedi su sjajni - Kanada, Meksiko i dve ogromne mase vode. Znate li koliko bi Turska volela takve susede? To su fenomenalni susedi.
Terrorism is a problem in the United States. God knows we know it here in New York. But it's a much bigger problem in Europe than the US. It's a much bigger problem in the Middle East than it is in Europe. These are factors of large magnitude. We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we're complaining bitterly about it. You know why? Because they can't swim here. Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees. The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right? That's not the situation. That's the reality of the United States.
Terorizam je problem u Sjedinjenim Državama. Sam bog zna da to znamo ovde u Njujorku. Međutim, to je mnogo veći problem u Evropi nego u SAD-u. To je mnogo veći problem na Srednjem istoku nego u Evropi. To su faktori velikog opsega. Upravo smo prihvatili 10 000 sirijskih izbeglica i ogorčeno se žalimo zbog toga. Znate li zašto? Zato što ne mogu da opstanu ovde. Je l' tako? Mislim, Turci bi voleli da imaju samo 10 000 sirijskih izbeglica. Jordanci, Nemci, Britanci. Zar ne? Situacija nije takva. To je stvarnost Sjedinjenih Država.
Now, that sounds pretty good. Here's the challenge. In a G-Zero world, the way you lead is by example. If we know we don't want to be the global cop anymore, if we know we're not going to be the architect of global trade, we're not going to be the cheerleader of global values, we're not going to do it the way we used to, the 21st century is changing, we need to lead by example -- be so compelling that all these other people are going to still say, it's not just they're faster campers. Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be. We want to emulate them.
To zvuči prilično dobro. Evo u čemu je problem. U svetu sa G0, upravljate ličnim primerom. Ako znamo da ne želimo više da budemo svetski policajci, ako znamo da nećemo biti graditelji svetske trgovine, nećemo biti navijači globalnih vrednosti, nećemo raditi stvari onako kao što smo do sada, 21. vek se menja, moramo da vodimo primerom - da budemo toliko ubedljivi da će svi ti ostali ljudi i dalje govoriti: „Nije samo stvar u tome što su brži kamperi. Čak i kada nas ne juri medved, dobro je biti na ovom mestu. Želimo da ih oponašamo.“
The election process this year is not proving a good option for leading by example. Hillary Clinton says it's going to be like the '90s. We can still be that cheerleader on values. We can still be the architect of global trade. We can still be the global sheriff. And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the '30s. He's saying, "Our way or the highway. You don't like it, lump it." Right? Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero, which is that even though the US is not in decline, it is getting objectively harder for the Americans to impose their will, even have great influence, on the global order.
Izborni proces ove godine ne pokazuje dobru opciju za predvođenje primerom. Hilari Klinton kaže da će biti kao '90-ih. I dalje možemo biti oni navijači za vrednosti. Možemo i dalje biti graditelji svetske trgovine. I dalje možemo biti svetski šerif. A Donald Tramp želi da nas vrati u '30-e. On kaže: „Biće po našem ili nikako. Kome se ne sviđa, neka poljubi i ostavi.“ Nijedan ne prepoznaje suštinsku istinu G0, a to je da iako SAD ne propada, objektivno postaje teže da Amerikanci nameću svoju volju, iako imaju veliki uticaj na svetski poredak.
Are we prepared to truly lead by example? What would we have to do to fix this after November, after the next president comes in? Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond. A depression would do that. Another global financial crisis could do this. God forbid, another 9/11 could do that. Or, absent crisis, we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges that are growing and growing in the United States, are themselves urgent enough to force our leaders to change, and that we have those voices. Through our cell phones, individually, we have those voices to compel them to change.
Jesmo li spremni da zaista vodimo primerom? Šta bismo morali da uradimo da ovo popravimo nakon novembra, nakon što dođe novi predsednik? Pa, moraćemo ili da imamo još jednu krizu koja nas primorava da reagujemo. Depresija bi to postigla. Još jedna svetska finansijska kriza bi to mogla postići. Ne daj bože, drugi 11. septembar bi to mogao postići. Ili, u odsustvu krize, moramo da uvidimo da su nestajanje srednje klase, nejednakosti, problemi koji su u porastu u Sjedinjenim Državama sami po sebi dovoljno hitni da primoraju naše lidere na promenu, kao i da imamo način da se izjasnimo. Preko mobilnih telefona, pojedinačno, posedujemo način da se izjasnimo kako bismo ih nagnali na promenu.
There is, of course, a third choice, perhaps the most likely one, which is that we do neither of those things, and in four years time you invite me back, and I will give this speech yet again.
Naravno, postoji treći izbor, možda najverovatniji, a to je da ne uradimo ništa od toga i za četiri godine me ponovo pozovete, a ja vam opet iznesem ovaj govor.
Thank you very, very much.
Mnogo, mnogo vam hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)