Today I want to confess something to you, but first of all I'm going to ask you a couple of questions. How many people here have children? And how many of you are confident that you know how to bring up your children in exactly the right way?
Danas želim nešto da vam priznam, ali ću prvo da vam postavim nekoliko pitanja. Koliko vas ovde ima decu? A koliko vas je ubeđeno da znate kako da podižete svoju decu baš na pravi način?
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
OK, I don't see too many hands going up on that second one, and that's my confession, too. I've got three boys; they're three, nine and 12. And like you, and like most parents, the honest truth is I have pretty much no idea what I'm doing. I want them to be happy and healthy in their lives, but I don't know what I'm supposed to do to make sure they are happy and healthy. There's so many books offering all kinds of conflicting advice, it can be really overwhelming. So I've spent most of their lives just making it up as I go along. However, something changed me a few years ago, when I came across a little secret that we have in Britain. It's helped me become more confident about how I bring up my own children, and it's revealed a lot about how we as a society can help all children. I want to share that secret with you today.
U redu, ne vidim da se previše ruku podiže na drugo pitanje, a to je i moje priznanje. Imam tri dečaka; imaju tri, devet i 12 godina. I poput vas, kao i poput većine reoditelja, iskreno da vam kažem, pojma nemam šta radim. Želim im da budu srećni i zdravi u životu, ali ne znam šta bi trebalo da uradim da se postaram da budu srećni i zdravi. Ima toliko knjiga koje nude razne suprotstavljene savete, zaista može da bude parališuće. Pa sam provela veći deo njihovih života snalazeći se korak po korak. Međutim, nešto me je promenilo pre nekoliko godina, kada sam naišla na malu tajnu koja postoji kod nas u Britaniji. Pomoglo mi je da budem samopouzdanija kod tog kako podižem svoju decu, i otkrilo je mnogo o tome kako mi kao društvo možemo da pomognemo svoj deci. Želim sa vama da podelim tu tajnu.
For the last 70 years, scientists in Britain have been following thousands of children through their lives as part of an incredible scientific study. There's nothing quite like it anywhere else in the world. Collecting information on thousands of children is a really powerful thing to do, because it means we can compare the ones who say, do well at school or end up healthy or happy or wealthy as adults, and the ones who struggle much more, and then we can sift through all the information we've collected and try to work out why their lives turned out different.
U proteklih 70 godina, naučnici u Britaniji su pratili na hiljade dece tokom njihovog života, kao deo neverovatnog naučnog istraživanja. Ništa slično ne postoji u svetu. Sakupljanje informacija o hiljadama dece je zaista moćna stvar jer to znači da možemo uporediti one koji, recimo, su dobri u školi ili završe kao zdravi ili srećni ili imućni odrasli, i one koji se mnogo više muče, a potom možemo da pročešljamo sve informacije koje smo sakupili i da pokušamo da otkrijemo zašto su im životi različito ispali.
This British study -- it's actually a kind of crazy story. So it all starts back in 1946, just a few months after the end of the war, when scientists wanted to know what it was like for a woman to have a baby at the time. They carried out this huge survey of mothers and ended up recording the birth of nearly every baby born in England, Scotland and Wales in one week. That was nearly 14,000 babies. The questions they asked these women are very different than the ones we might ask today. They sound really old-fashioned now. They asked them things like, "During pregnancy, did you get your full extra ration of a pint of milk a day?" "How much did you spend on smocks, corsets, nightdresses, knickers and brassieres?" And this is my favorite one: "Who looked after your husband while you were in bed with this baby?"
Ovo britansko istraživanje - zapravo se radi o šašavoj priči. Dakle, sve počinje 1946, svega nekoliko meseci po okončanju rata, kada su se naučnici zapitali kako je tada bilo ženama koje su imale bebu. Sproveli su obimnu anketu među majkama i na kraju su zabeležili rođenje skoro svake bebe rođene u Engleskoj, Škotskoj i Velsu tokom jedne nedelje. Radilo se o skoro 14.000 beba. Pitanja koja su pitali ove žene se veoma razlikuju od onih koje bismo danas pitali. Sada zvuče zaista zastarelo. Pitali su ih stvari poput: "Tokom trudnoće, da li ste dobijali puno dodatno sledovanje od pola litra mleka na dan?" "Koliko ste trošili na bluze, korsete, spavaćice, gaćice i brushaltere?" A ovo mi je omiljeno: "Ko je pazio vašeg muža dok ste bili u krevetu s bebom?"
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Now, this wartime study actually ended up being so successful that scientists did it again. They recorded the births of thousands of babies born in 1958 and thousands more in 1970. They did it again in the early 1990s, and again at the turn of the millennium. Altogether, more than 70,000 children have been involved in these studies across those five generations. They're called the British birth cohorts, and scientists have gone back and recorded more information on all of these people every few years ever since. The amount of information that's now been collected on these people is just completely mind-boggling. It includes thousands of paper questionnaires and terabytes' worth of computer data. Scientists have also built up a huge bank of tissue samples, which includes locks of hair, nail clippings, baby teeth and DNA. They've even collected 9,000 placentas from some of the births, which are now pickled in plastic buckets in a secure storage warehouse. This whole project has become unique -- so, no other country in the world is tracking generations of children in quite this detail. These are some of the best-studied people on the planet, and the data has become incredibly valuable for scientists, generating well over 6,000 academic papers and books. But today I want to focus on just one finding -- perhaps the most important discovery to come from this remarkable study. And it's also the one that spoke to me personally, because it's about how to use science to do the best for our children.
Sad, ovo ratno istraživanje je na kraju bilo toliko uspešno da su ga naučnici ponovili. Zabeležili su rođenje hiljada beba rođenih 1958. i još na hiljadu rođenih 1970. Ponovili su to ranih 1990-ih i ponovo početkom milenijuma. Sveukupno, više od 70.000 dece je uključeno u ova istraživanja, u ovih pet generacija. Nazivaju ih britanskom kohortom rođenih, a naučnici su se vratili i zabeležili još informacija o svim ovim ljudima na svake dve godine. Količina informacija koja je sakupljena o ovim ljudima je prosto zapanjujuća. Uključuje na hiljade upitnika na papiru i terabajte kompjuterskih informacija. Naučnici su takođe sagradili ogromnu banku uzoraka tkiva, koja uključuje pramenove kose, isečke noktiju, mlečne zube i DNK. Čak su i sakupili 9.000 posteljica od nekih porođaja, koje su trenutno pasterizovane u plastičnim kofama u bezbednom skladištu. Čitav ovaj projekat je postao jedinstven - dakle, ne, nijedna država na svetu ne prati generacije dece ovako detaljno. Spadaju među najizučavanije ljude na planeti, a ovi podaci su postali izuzetno vredni naučnicima, proizveli su preko 6000 akademskih radova i knjiga. Ali danas želim da se usredsredim samo na jedno otkriće - možda najvažnije otkriće koje je proisteklo iz ove izvanredne studije. A to otkriće je i mene lično dotaklo jer se radi o tome kako da koristite nauku da uradite najbolje za vašu decu.
So, let's get the bad news out of the way first. Perhaps the biggest message from this remarkable study is this: don't be born into poverty or into disadvantage, because if you are, you're far more likely to walk a difficult path in life. Many children in this study were born into poor families or into working-class families that had cramped homes or other problems, and it's clear now that those disadvantaged children have been more likely to struggle on almost every score. They've been more likely to do worse at school, to end up with worse jobs and to earn less money. Now, maybe that sounds really obvious, but some of the results have been really surprising, so children who had a tough start in life are also more likely to end up unhealthy as adults. They're more likely to be overweight, to have high blood pressure, and then decades down the line, more likely to have a failing memory, poor health and even to die earlier.
Dakle, prvo ćemo da se rešimo loših vesti. Verovatno najveća pouka iz ovog izvanrednog istraživanja je: nemojte da se rodite u siromaštvu ili oskudici jer, ako se to desi, veća je verovatnoća da ćete ići težim putem kroz život. Mnoga deca iz ovog istraživanja su rođena u siromašnim porodicama ili u porodicama radničke klase koje su imale tesne domove ili druge probleme, i sada je jasno da su se ova neprivilegovana deca češće mučila skoro na svakom koraku. Veća je verovatnoća da su bili lošiji đaci, da su završili sa lošijim poslovima i zarađivali manje novca. Sad, to možda zvuči očigledno, ali neki rezultati su zaista bili iznenađujući, dakle, deca koja su imala težak početak takođe su na kraju postajala odrasli lošijeg zdravlja. Skloniji su gojaznosti, visokom krvnom pritisku, a decenijama kasnije, skloniji su tome da ih izdaje pamćenje, loše zdravlje, pa čak i da ranije umru.
Now, I talked about what happens later, but some of these differences emerge at a really shockingly early age. In one study, children who were growing up in poverty were almost a year behind the richer children on educational tests, and that was by the age of just three. These types of differences have been found again and again across the generations. It means that our early circumstances have a profound influence on the way that the rest of our lives play out. And working out why that is is one of the most difficult questions that we face today.
Sad, govorila sam o tome šta se dešava kasnije, ali neke od ovih razlika se pojavljuju u iznenađujuće ranom uzrastu. U jednom istraživanju, deca koja su odrastala u siromaštvu su na obrazovnim testovima zaostajala skoro godinu iza bogatije dece, a radi se o uzrastu od svega tri godine. Ovaj tip razlika je otkriven iznova i iznova širom generacija. To znači da naše rane okolnosti imaju suštinski uticaj na to kako će se odigrati ostatak naših života. A otkrivanje zašto je to tako je jedno od najtežih pitanja s kojim smo trenutno suočeni.
So there we have it. The first lesson for successful life, everyone, is this: choose your parents very carefully.
Dakle, eto ga. Prva lekcija za uspešan život, pazite, je sledeća: veoma oprezno birajte roditelje.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Don't be born into a poor family or into a struggling family. Now, I'm sure you can see the small problem here. We can't choose our parents or how much they earn, but this British study has also struck a real note of optimism by showing that not everyone who has a disadvantaged start ends up in difficult circumstances. As you know, many people have a tough start in life, but they end up doing very well on some measure nevertheless, and this study starts to explain how.
Ne rađajte se u siromašnoj porodici ili u oskudnoj porodici. Sad, sigurna sam da ovde zapažate maleni problem. Ne možemo da biramo roditelje ili koliko će da zarađuju, ali ovo britansko istraživanje je takođe imalo notu optimizma, pokazujući da nisu svi koji su imali neprivilegovan početak završili u teškim okolnostima. Kao što znate, mnogi ljudi imaju težak početak života, ali im na kraju ipak bude dobro do neke mere, a ovo istraživanje objašnjava kako.
So the second lesson is this: parents really matter. In this study, children who had engaged, interested parents, ones who had ambition for their future, were more likely to escape from a difficult start. It seems that parents and what they do are really, really important, especially in the first few years of life.
Dakle, sledeća lekcija je: roditelji su zaista važni. U ovom istraživanju, deca angažovanih, zainteresovanih roditelja, onih koji su bili ambiciozni za budućnost dece, bila su sklonija tome da izbegnu posledice teškog početka. Čini se da su roditelji i njihovi postupci zaista, zaista važni, naročito tokom prvih nekoliko godina života.
Let me give you an example of that. In one study, scientists looked at about 17,000 children who were born in 1970. They sifted all the mountains of data that they had collected to try to work out what allowed the children who'd had a difficult start in life to go on and do well at school nevertheless. In other words, which ones beat the odds. The data showed that what mattered more than anything else was parents. Having engaged, interested parents in those first few years of life was strongly linked to children going on to do well at school later on. In fact, quite small things that parents do are associated with good outcomes for children. Talking and listening to a child, responding to them warmly, teaching them their letters and numbers, taking them on trips and visits. Reading to children every day seems to be really important, too. So in one study, children whose parents were reading to them daily when they were five and then showing an interest in their education at the age of 10, were significantly less likely to be in poverty at the age of 30 than those whose parents weren't doing those things.
Daću vam primer za to. U jednom istraživanju, naučnici su posmatrali oko 17.000 dece koja su rođena 1970. Pročešljali su brda podataka koje su sakupili kako bi otkrili šta je omogućilo deci koja su imala težak početak života da svejedno budu dobri đaci. Drugim rečima, šta je pobedilo statistiku. Podaci su pokazali da su roditelji važniji od svega drugog. Imati angažovane, zainteresovane roditelje u prvih nekoliko godina života je čvrsto povezano sa kasnijim dečjim uspehom u školi. Zapravo, prilično sitne stvari koje roditelji rade su povezane sa dobrim ishodima kod dece. Razgovaranje i slušanje deteta, pružanje toplog odgovora, podučavanje slovima i brojevima, odvođenje na putovanja i u posete. Svakodnevno čitanje deci se takođe čini prilično važnim. Dakle, u jednom istraživanju, deca čiji su roditelji im čitali svakodnevno kada im je bilo pet godina i potom su pokazivali interesovanje za njihovo obrazovanje u 10. godini značajno su imali manje šanse da žive u siromaštvu sa 30 godina od onih čiji roditelji nisu radili sve to.
Now, there are huge challenges with interpreting this type of science. These studies show that certain things that parents do are correlated with good outcomes for children, but we don't necessarily know those behaviors caused the good outcomes, or whether some other factor is getting in the way. For example, we have to take genes into account, and that's a whole other talk in itself.
Sad, postoje ogromni izazovi pri tumačenju ovog vida nauke. Ova istraživanja pokazuju da određene stvari koje roditelji rade su povezane sa dobrim ishodima za decu, ali mi nužno ne znamo da li su ta ponašanja uzrokovala dobre ishode ili se neki drugi faktor našao na putu. Na primer, moramo da uzmemo u obzir gene, a to je samo po sebi neki drugi govor.
But scientists working with this British study are working really hard to get at causes, and this is one study I particularly love. In this one, they looked at the bedtime routines of about 10,000 children born at the turn of the millennium. Were the children going to bed at regular times, or did they go to bed at different times during the week? The data showed that those children who were going to bed at different times were more likely to have behavioral problems, and then those that switched to having regular bedtimes often showed an improvement in behavior, and that was really crucial, because it suggested it was the bedtime routines that were really helping things get better for those kids.
No naučnici koji rade na ovoj britanskoj studiji, rade zaista vredno da pronađu uzroke, a evo jednog istraživanja koje naročito volim. U njemu su posmatrali rutine pred spavanje oko 10.000 dece rođene početkom ovog milenijuma. Da li su deca išla u krevet uvek u isto vreme ili su išla u krevet u različito vreme tokom nedelje? Podaci su pokazali da su ona deca koja su išla u krevet u različito vreme bila sklonija problematičnom ponašanju, a ona koja su se prebacila na ustaljen odlazak u krevet su često pokazivala napredak u ponašanju, a to je bilo zaista krucijalno jer je nagoveštavalo da rutine pripreme za krevet zaista pomažu da se stvari poprave za tu decu.
Here's another one to think about. In this one, scientists looked at children who were reading for pleasure. That means that they picked up a magazine, a picture book, a story book. The data showed that children who were reading for pleasure at the ages of five and 10 were more likely to go on in school better, on average, on school tests later in their lives. And not just tests of reading, but tests of spelling and maths as well. This study tried to control for all the confounding factors, so it looked at children who were equally intelligent and from the same social-class background, so it seemed as if it was the reading which really helped those children go on and score better on those school tests later in their lives.
Evo još jednog za razmišljanje. U ovom istraživanju, naučnici su posmatrali decu koja su čitala iz zadovoljstva. To znači da bi uzeli časopis, slikovnicu, priče za decu. Podaci su pokazali da deca koja su čitala iz zadovoljstva u uzrastu od pet do deset godina, imala su više šanse u proseku da imaju bolji uspeh u školi, na školskim testovima kasnije u životu. I ne samo na testovima iz čitanja, već i na testovima sricanja i matematike. Istraživanje je pokušalo da kontroliše sve zbunjujuće faktore, pa je posmatralo decu koja su podjednako inteligentna i imaju isto socio-klasno poreklo, pa se činilo kao da je čitanje to što je zaista pomoglo deci da imaju bolje rezultate na testovima kasnije u njihovom životu.
Now at the start, I said the first lesson from this study was not to be born into poverty or into disadvantage, because those children tend to follow more difficult paths in their lives. But then I said that parenting matters, and that good parenting, if you can call it that, helps children beat the odds and overcome some of those early disadvantages. So wait, does that actually mean, then, that poverty doesn't matter after all? You could argue it doesn't matter if a child is born poor -- as long as their parents are good parents, they're going to do just fine. I don't believe that's true. This study shows that poverty and parenting matter. And one study actually put figures on that, so it looked at children growing up in persistent poverty and how well they were doing at school. The data showed that even when their parents were doing everything right -- putting them to bed on time and reading to them every day and everything else -- that only got those children so far. Good parenting only reduced the educational gap between the rich and poor children by about 50 percent. Now that means that poverty leaves a really lasting scar, and it means that if we really want to ensure the success and well-being of the next generation, then tackling child poverty is an incredibly important thing to do.
Sad, na početku sam rekla prvu lekciju iz ovog istraživanja da se ne treba roditi u siromaštvu ili oskudici jer ta deca često idu težim putem u životu. Ali sam zatim rekla da je roditeljstvo važno i da dobro roditeljstvo, ako ga tako nazovete, pomaže deci da pobede statistiku i prevaziđu neke od tih ranih nedostataka. Dakle, čekajte, da li to onda zapravo znači da siromaštvo naposletku uopšte nije važno? Možete da tvrdite da nije važno, ako se dete rodi siromašno - dokle god ima dobre roditelje, biće mu sasvim dobro. Ne verujem da je to tačno. Istraživanje pokazuje da su važni i siromaštvo i roditeljstvo. A jedno istraživanje je zapravo to procenilo, pa je posmatralo decu koja su odrastala u trajnom siromaštvu i kako im je išlo u školi. Podaci su pokazali da čak i kad su njihovi roditelji sve radili kako treba - slali ih u krevet na vreme i čitali im svakodnevno i sve ostalo - to je tek toliko uticalo na decu. Dobro roditeljstvo je samo umanjilo obrazovni jaz između bogate i siromašne dece za oko 50 procenata. Sad, to znači da siromaštvo ostavlja zaista trajan ožiljak, i znači da ako zaista želimo da obezbedimo uspeh i dobrobit sledeće generacije, onda je bavljenje dečjim siromaštvom neverovatno važan postupak.
Now, what does all this mean for you and me? Are there lessons here we can all take home and use? As a scientist and a journalist, I like to have some science to inform my parenting ... and I can tell you that when you're shouting at your kids to go to bed on time, it really helps to have the scientific literature on your side.
Sad, šta sve ovo znači za vas i mene? Šta iz ovog možemo da naučimo i da primenimo? Kao naučnica i novinarka, volim kad mi nauka potkrepljuje roditeljstvo... i mogu da vam kažem da kad vičete na decu da idu u krevet na vreme, zaista pomaže kad imate naučnu literaturu na vašoj strani.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And wouldn't it be great to think that all we had to do to have happy, successful children was to talk to them, be interested in their future, put them to bed on time, and give them a book to read? Our job would be done.
I zar ne bi bila sjajna pomisao da sve što je potrebno da bismo imali srećnu, uspešnu decu jeste da pričate s njima, budete zainteresovani za njihovu budućnost, stavljate ih u krevet na vreme dajete im knjige da čitaju? Naš posao bi bio završen.
Now, as you can imagine, the answers aren't quite as simple as that. For one thing, this study looks at what happens to thousands and thousands of children on average, but that doesn't necessarily say what will help my child or your child or any individual child. In the end, each of our children is going to walk their own path, and that's partly defined by the genes they inherit and of course all the experiences they have through their lives, including their interactions with us, their parents.
Kao što pretpostavljate, odgovori nisu ni blizu tako jednostavni. Prvo, ovo istraživanje posmatra šta se dešava hiljadama i hiljadama dece u proseku, ali to nužno ne govori šta bi pomoglo mom ili vašem detetu ili bilo kom detetu pojedinačno. Konačno, svako naše dete će da prati sopstvenu stazu, a ona je delimično određena genima koje nasleđuju i, naravno, svim iskustvima koja budu imali u životu, uključujući interakciju s nama, njihovim roditeljima.
I will tell you what I did after I learned all this. It's a bit embarrassing. I realized I was so busy working, and ironically, learning and writing about this incredible study of British children, that there were days when I hardly even spoke to my own British children. So at home, we introduced talking time, which is just 15 minutes at the end of the day when we talk and listen to the boys. I try better now to ask them what they did today, and to show that I value what they do at school. Of course, I make sure they always have a book to read. I tell them I'm ambitious for their future, and I think they can be happy and do great things. I don't know that any of that will make a difference, but I'm pretty confident it won't do them any harm, and it might even do them some good.
Reći ću vam šta sam uradila, nakon što sam ovo saznala. Malo me je sramota. Shvatila sam da sam bila toliko zauzeta radeći, i, ironično, učeći i pišući o ovom neverovatnom istraživanju britanske dece, da je bilo dana kad jedva da sam i govorila sa sopstvenom britanskom decom. Pa smo kod kuće uveli vreme za razgovor, a to je svega 15 minuta na kraju dana kada razgovaramo i slušamo dečake. Sad se više trudim da ih pitam šta su radili danas, i da pokažem da cenim njihov trud u školi. Naravno da se staram da uvek imaju knjigu za čitanje. Govorim im da imam ambicije za njihovu budućnost i smatram da mogu da budu srećni i postignu velike stvari. Ne znam da li će išta od toga da bude značajno, ali sam prilično sigurna da neće da im škodi, a možda im čak i pomogne malo.
Ultimately, if we want happy children, all we can do is listen to the science, and of course, listen to our children themselves.
Naposletku, ako želimo srećnu decu, sve što možemo je da slušamo nauku i, naravno, da slušamo i samu decu.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.