I study rumors. Not tabloid gossip or the kind of rumors that are making stock markets crash -- or soar -- but the kind of rumors that affect your health ... and the world's health. Like eating a lot of garlic or drinking a lot of water is going to help protect us from coronavirus -- if only. Rumors have a bad reputation. They're seen as not fact, wrong, or "just a rumor." But I've studied rumors for years, and one thing I've learned is that they all have a story, and often, an important story.
我研究谣言。 我说的不是流言蜚语, 也不是那种让股市 大起大落的谣言—— 而是与您的健康、 世界健康有关的谣言。 例如多吃大蒜, 或是多喝水 就可以帮助我们 预防新型冠状病毒—— 事情最好有那么简单。 谣言往往恶名昭彰, 因为它们不完全是事实, 也不完全错误, 又或者“只是无稽之谈罢了”。 我研究谣言很多年了, 但我发现每个谣言背后 都有一个故事, 且通常都是重要的故事。
One of the most moving or alarming rumor episodes that I investigated was in northern Nigeria. I was working with UNICEF's Global Immunization programme. And it wasn't the rumors themselves that I found so alarming; it was the global impact of those rumors. The rumors were suspecting that the polio vaccine was actually a contraceptive. It was controlling populations -- or maybe it caused AIDS. No, no, maybe it's the CIA spying on them or counting them. I mean, why else would they have people knocking on their door again and again with the same polio vaccine? When children were dying of measles, no one was coming with measles vaccines.
在我的研究生涯中,其中一个 最令人感动、震惊的谣言 发生在尼日利亚的北部。 我当时正在参与联合国儿童基金会 所推动的全球免疫工作, 从而发现谣言本身并不可怕, 可怕的是谣言所引起的各界反应。 有谣传指出, 小儿麻痹症的疫苗 实际上是避孕药, 目的是控制人口—— 或者会传播艾滋病。 不,不,也有可能是美国情报局 用来监视或者控制人口的手段。 不然,他们何必挨家挨户 通知注射小儿麻痹症的疫苗? 当这些孩子死于麻疹时, 没有人提及麻疹疫苗。
This wasn't about getting the facts right. This was about trust. It was about broken trust. Why so much distrust? It wasn't the mothers who were particularly distrusting, actually. It was the local leaders, the religious leaders, the local political leaders. It was the governor of the state of Kano who decided to boycott the entire polio eradication effort in that state ... for 11 months.
重点不在于澄清事实, 而是事关信任。 缺乏信任才是主因, 为什么人们不相信疫苗? 不只是母亲对疫苗有疑惑, 连当地的当权者、 宗教领袖们, 和地方上的政治人物皆是如此。 卡诺州(尼日利亚 36 个州之一)的州长 甚至在全州范围内 发起了长达十一个月 对小儿麻痹根除工作的抵制。
Why such distrust? Well, it was 2003. It was two years after 9/11. And they were convinced that the West, and particularly the United States, was at war with Muslims. And they knew that the West, and particularly the United States, was a huge supporter -- and funder -- of the global polio eradication initiative. They had their reasoning. That lack of trust, that "just a rumor or two" cost the polio eradication program 500 million dollars to reset the clock, to regain the progress lost during those 11 months and beyond. The Nigerian strain of the polio virus traveled to over 20 countries, as far as Indonesia. The cost of a rumor.
为何人们对疫苗如此不信任? 事实上,那是在 2003 年, 即 911 事件发生的两年后, 他们深信西方国家, 尤其是美国, 与穆斯林国家的关系 已变得极度紧张。 他们也清楚西方国家, 尤其是美国, 不仅大力推动, 还提供资金, 就为了根除小儿麻痹。 他们言之凿凿, 因为缺乏信任, 仅因“只是一两个无稽之谈罢了”, 就让整个小儿麻痹根除计划 多耗费了五亿美元, 才让整个过程步入正轨, 以弥补过去十一个月的损失, 并让后续计划得以顺利进行。 尼日利亚的小儿麻痹病毒 也扩散到了 20 多个国家, 最远甚至传播到了印度尼西亚。 这就是谣言的代价。
The Nigeria episode was one of many episodes that I investigated when I was with UNICEF and earned the title of the "director of UNICEF's fire department."
我在联合国儿童基金会服务期间, 发生在尼日利亚的故事 只是冰山一角, 我还因此被封为“救火队队长”。
(Laughs)
(笑声)
We -- at that point I realized I never really had enough time. I was too busy putting out the fires and not enough time to understand what was driving not just the individual episodes, but why was there an epidemic of these happening around the world.
我们当下才意识到 时间根本不够, 我太专注于如何“救火”, 却没有足够时间弄清楚 究竟是什么原因促成了 这一个接着一个的事件, 以及为什么会发生 疾病扩散全球的情况。
I left UNICEF and went back to research -- applied research -- and I set up in 2010 what I called the Vaccine Confidence Project at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. I convened anthropologists, epidemiologists, psychologists, digital media specialists and mathematical modelers. We set ourselves the task to investigate historic episodes of rumors and their impacts, from trying to figure out what were the early signals, what were the amplifying factors and the impacts, how did they get traction, so we could start to understand what we should be looking for, how we could help governments and immunization programs be more alert and responsive to early signals of problems. It was an early warning system.
我离开了联合国儿童基金会, 重新投入研究工作—— 应用研究—— 并于 2010 年在伦敦大学 卫生与热带医学院, 成立了疫苗信心计划。 我召集了人类学家、流行病学家、 心理学家、 数字媒体学家 以及数学建模学家。 我们的研究目标是为了 厘清产生谣言的时间脉络 及其带来的影响力, 企图找出谣言开始出现的迹象、 导致谣言散播的因素 及其影响, 谣言是如何让人们深信不疑的, 这样我们才能对症下药, 帮助政府和防疫计划 及时在谣言散播初期 快速采取应对措施。 当然,这只是一个预警体系。
In 2015, we developed a vaccine confidence index. It's a survey trying to investigate to what extent do people agree or disagree that vaccines are important, they're safe, they're effective -- they work -- and somehow they're compatible with my religious beliefs. We've run this with over hundreds of thousands of people around the world, trying to get our finger on the pulse of confidence and trust, but also, more importantly, looking at when that trust goes up or down, because we want to see when it starts to decline, that's the time to jump in, to get there before there's a crisis like the Nigerian one. We also set up 24-7 media and social media monitoring around the world -- multilanguage -- listening for what's going on in vaccine conversations, trying to pick up early concerns or changes in sentiment that we should be paying attention to.
我们在 2015 年启动了一项疫苗置信指数 (vaccine confidence index)调查, 旨在研究人们在多大程度上 认为或者不认为 疫苗是重要、安全 且有效的—— 或是注射疫苗与自身的宗教信仰 存在多大程度的冲突。 我们与全球数十万人共同合作, 尝试去理解人们 对疫苗的信心与信任。 更重要的是,观察人们 对疫苗的信任度是否飘移不定, 因为当人们对 疫苗的信任开始下降, 这就是我们介入的时刻, 以免尼日利亚的悲剧重演。 我们还在全球成立了 全年无休且跨越各个语种的 媒体与社交媒体监督小组, 收集所有有关疫苗的信息, 试图尽早捕捉到人们对疫苗的疑虑 及情绪上的变化。
We've created an ecosystem of different types of information to try to understand: what are the public thinking and how can we engage? We look for early signals. When we find one, we have a global network of collaborators in a number of countries who have more local intelligence in that setting to try to understand -- is this signal misinformation, or is something brewing that we should know about?
我们也为此创建了 不同类型的信息体系, 借此了解: 社会大众对此事的看法, 以及我们该如何去应对大众的反应? 我们寻找初期迹象。 一旦有新发现, 我们在全球各地的合作伙伴—— 他们更为熟悉当地的环境—— 可以以此判断 该迹象是否有误, 或者,是否是我们应该 尽早知晓的某种前兆?
In London, we have a bigger picture. We watch the swarms of rumors, not just traveling locally but jumping countries. We've seen them jump from Japan over to Colombia, through Europe and around. They move. We live in a hyperconnected environment.
在伦敦,我们的信息范围更广。 谣言不仅在当地广为流传, 更是散布到了其他国家。 我们曾见过谣言 从日本散布至哥伦比亚, 遍及欧洲及其他地区。 谣言的传播是不分地域的。 我们生活在一个紧密联系的大环境里。
One of the things that we found fascinating, and we've learned a lot in the last 10 years -- this is our 10th anniversary, this didn't start yesterday, this rumor problem -- and one of the things we've learned is in our global monitoring, that Europe is the most skeptical region in the world. France won the prize, actually.
我们发现了一件很有趣的事情, 并在过去十年里 取得了丰富的研究成果—— 今天是我们的十周年庆—— 该谣言课题是 一项经年累月的研究。 我们发现, 在全球监测网络中, 欧洲是全世界 最不信任疫苗的地区, 其中法国位居第一,
(Laughter)
(笑声)
By far. And actually some of those rumors have traveled to other parts of the world. But we were trying to understand Europe. Hmm. Why Europe? I thought the US was really -- had some of the most skepticism, but boy, I was wrong.
截至目前为止。 有些谣言确实已经散布至 世界的各个角落, 但我们的研究重点集中在欧洲。 为什么是欧洲呢? 我原先以为美国会是研究重点—— 大部分的美国人 都对疫苗持有怀疑态度, 但是我大错特错了。
And a political scientist, a colleague we work with, Jon Kennedy, he took our data from 28 European countries and he looked at it and correlated it with political opinion polling. And what did he find? He found that people who are most likely to vote for a populist party also were the ones most likely to strongly disagree that vaccines were important, safe or effective. What did we learn? Vaccines cannot escape the political and social turbulence that surrounds it. Scientists were unprepared for this tsunami of doubt and questions and distrust.
一位和我共事的政治学家, 乔恩·肯尼迪(Jon Kennedy), 根据我们所收集到的 28 个欧洲国家的资料, 并参考政治意见的调查结果, 进行比对研究。 那他究竟发现了什么? 大部分的民粹主义支持者, 也最有可能强烈反对 注射重要、安全、有效的疫苗。 这告诉我们什么? 疫苗无可避免会受到周围的 政治和社会干扰。 科学家对这些铺天盖地的猜忌、 疑惑和不信任而感到无所适从。
What -- why are vaccines so ripe for resistance? Well, we identified a number of things, but one: they're highly mediated by government that requires, regulates and sometimes recommends vaccines -- or often recommends and sometimes requires. Big business makes vaccines, and neither institution, government or big business, are high in the trust ranks these days. And then there's scientists who discover and develop vaccines, and they're pretty elite and not accessible to the general public, at least the language they speak. Third, we're in a hyperconnected environment with social media these days, and people can share their unfettered views, concerns, anxieties and worries and find a lot of people that think the way they do, and think maybe their worries are worth paying attention to. And finally, vaccines touch every single life on the planet. What other health intervention, besides water, touches every single life? So if you're looking for something to disrupt, it's a perfect stage.
为什么人们抵抗疫苗的态度 如此强烈? 对此,我们总结出了几个结论, 但其中有一点是: 政府对疫苗的介入尤为重要, 这需要政府强制规定 或是建议疫苗接种—— 经常向人们推荐 或在有需要时给予人们建议。 只有大型企业才有能力生产疫苗, 而如今无论是机构、政府还是大企业, 都没有赢得公众的高度信任。 其次,疫苗是由科学家研发的, 且他们各个都是精英, 他们的工作离普通百姓的生活太远, 往往无法被大众所理解, 尤其是那些专业术语。 其三,我们生活在一个 与社交媒体互动紧密的环境, 人们能不受约束的 与他人分享观点、 烦恼、忧思与紧张, 甚至找到趣味相投的人们, 认为他们担忧的事情 是值得受到关注的。 直到疫苗的问世, 它触及每一条地球生命。 除了水源, 还有什么健康议题 还能如此深入每个人的生活? 所以,如果你想从中搞破坏, 疫苗确实是个完美的攻击目标。
Perhaps that's one of the reasons that we need to pay more attention and rebuild our trust in issues. People are asking all kinds of questions. They're asking, why are vaccines -- and these are the kinds of things we're hearing in our social media -- why can't my child have a personalized vaccination schedule? What's the wisdom of so many vaccines? What about all those ingredients and preservatives? These are not crazy people, they're not uneducated; they're actually worried mothers. But some of them have come to me and said, "We feel ignored, we feel judged if we ask a question, and we even feel demonized that maybe we're part of some antivaccine group."
正因如此,我们得在这个议题上 更加用心,重建人们对疫苗的信任。 层出不穷的问题 不断被提出。 为什么要注射疫苗—— 这类问题常出现在 社交媒体的讨论区—— 为什么不能为我的孩子 制定疫苗接种计划? 疫苗的研发机制又是什么? 疫苗中的成分和防腐剂安全吗? 反对注射疫苗的人们不是疯子, 也不是低教育水平者, 她们只是忧心孩子健康的母亲。 有些母亲来找我面谈, 告诉我:“我们感到被忽视了, 但凡提出什么问题都会被质疑, 我们的名誉也遭到了损害, 甚至被当作是反疫苗群体的一员。”
So we have some listening to do. And maybe that's why last year, there was research that found that in six months in 2019, online -- this was with hundreds -- 100 million different users on social media -- although the numbers of individuals who expressed in their online groups, they were positive, as groups, the ones who were the most negative were recruiting the conversations in the middle that were undecided about whether they wanted to get vaccines. The highly negative -- what we might call the antivaccine groups -- were recruiting the undecided at a rate 500 percent faster than the provaccine groups. 500 percent faster. They were more nimble, they were responsive and they were listening.
所以,我们要倾听她们的心声。 也许这就是为什么去年 有个研究指出, 在 2019 年的 网络平台上, 虽然多达上亿的用户 在半年时间内, 在社交媒体群组中发表的 对疫苗的看法 都是正面的, 而那些最消极的人 却在持续招募一些 还没有决定是否要 接种疫苗的人。 那些极度反对的人群—— 我们通常称之为反疫苗群体—— 也在积极拉拢 那些举棋不定的人们, 他们的拉拢进度 比起疫苗支持群体 快了 500%。 反疫苗群体的反应 更灵活、更积极, 也更愿意倾听大众的担忧。
Most people believe that vaccines are good and they believe in their importance. But that belief is under attack. We need to build in more opportunities for conversation. And there are ways to do it.
很多人相信疫苗对人体有益, 也同意它的重要性。 但当这些信念受到抨击时, 我们需要建立起更多的对话机会。 其实方法很多,
It's not easy for some health professionals to have conversations where their authority is questioned. It's uncomfortable. And they're just too busy to listen to all these questions. But we need to do something about that, because we're losing a lot of concerned parents that just want a conversation. We should get volunteers trained to sit in waiting rooms, to be on hotlines, to have online chat forums, to have chat boxes. In younger kids, with younger kids in school, teach them about immune systems and teach them that actually, you know that vaccine your little brother got? Well, it just inspired your natural immune system. It's a great thing and this is why. We need to build that confidence; we need to listen.
但对于医学专家而言, 与质疑他们专业的人们 建立起对话并没那么容易。 这很令人担忧。 再则,医学专家也没时间 去一一聆听所有的问题。 但我们需对此做出对策, 因为我们失去了很多父母的信任, 只因为缺少了对话的机会。 我们应该招募受过训练的志愿者, 并将他们安排在等候室、 热线电话、 在线聊天论坛、 或聊天窗口等场所。 对于在校的孩子们来说, 我们要教授他们免疫系统的知识, 是要让他们了解, 为什么要接种疫苗。 比如,疫苗可以刺激 你的天然免疫系统。 疫苗是个伟大的发明, 并进一步解释其重要性。 我们要建立起 人们对疫苗的信心, 所以我们需要聆听他们的想法。
Despite all this questioning -- and there's a lot of it -- I hear probably more than a lot of people -- I am an optimist. And my optimism is with a younger generation. The younger generation who actually now are becoming very aware of the risks of social media, the false news, the false identities, and they're starting to embrace science. And some of them are a group of children whose mothers refused to vaccinate them.
尽管备受质疑, 且恶评源源不绝, 我听到过许多人 无法想象的恶评—— 但我是个乐观主义者。 我的乐观态度源自年轻人。 年轻人逐渐发现 社交媒体的风险、 假新闻、 身份冒用, 所以他们开始相信科学。 有些孩子因母亲不同意 而没有接受疫苗接种。
Last spring of 2019, 18-year-old Ethan Lindenberger went on Reddit and put out a post. "My mother doesn't believe in vaccines. She's really worried they cause autism. In fact, she strongly believes that. But I'm 18. I'm a senior in high school. I can drive a car, I can vote and I could go get my own vaccine. Can someone tell me where to get it?" That post went viral. It started to get a whole younger movement going.
2019 年的春天, 18 岁的伊森·林登伯格 在 Reddit (注:类似于国内的贴吧) 发表了一篇文章。 “我的母亲并不相信疫苗。 她担心疫苗会引发自闭症, 并对此深信不疑。 但我已经满 18 岁了, 是一个高三的学生。 我能驾车,我也能投票, 我也可以自行接受疫苗接种。 有人能告诉我, 我应该去哪里接种疫苗吗?” 这篇文章在网络上迅速传播开来, 也说明了年轻一代 开始迈向改变的趋势。
I saw Ethan speak at a conference, the Global Vaccine Summit at the EU last fall. He spoke eloquently, and I was impressed, in front of a whole forum. He told his personal story, and then he said to the group, he said, "You know, everybody talks about misinformation, but I want to tell you about a different kind of misinformation, and that's misinformation that says that people like my mother, who is a loving mother, is a bad person because she doesn't give me vaccines. Well, I want to tell all of you that she didn't give me a vaccine, because she loves me and because she believed that that was the best thing for me. I think differently and I will never change her mind, but she's not a bad person." That was the message from a teenager. Empathy, kindness and understanding.
我在去年秋天出席了 欧盟举办的全球疫苗高峰会, 碰巧赶上了伊桑的演讲。 他侃侃而谈, 让我对他的整个演讲 留下了深刻的印象。 他与在座的各位分享了 他的亲身经历, 并提醒大家, 他说:“大家都在 谈论不正确的信息, 但我想告诉你们 另类的不正确信息, 说的正是像我母亲这样的人。 她是一个疼爱孩子的母亲, 也是个不及格的母亲, 因为她不让我接种疫苗。 其实我想告诉大家, 我的母亲是出于爱我, 而不让我接受疫苗接种, 因为她相信这样的决定 才是对我最好的。 虽然我们看法不同, 但我绝对不会改变她的看法, 因为她不是个坏人。” 这是来自一个少年 传递给大家的信息—— 同理心、善良及理解。
We have an abundance of scientific information to debunk false rumors. That's not our problem. We have a relationship problem, not a misinformation problem. Misinformation is the symptom, not the cause. If people trust, they'll put up with a little risk to avert a much bigger one.
我们有的是科学知识 可以揭露那些错误的谣言。 这对我们而言并不难, 难的是如何处理情感, 而不是传播不实信息。 传播不实信息只是表象, 不是主因。 如果人们相信疫苗, 他们就会承担小风险 以避免更大的灾难。
The one thing that I want and I hope for is that we as a medical and health community have the moral courage and humility to productively engage, like Ethan, with those who disagree with us. I hope so.
我最希望看到的是, 我们这些医药和医疗领域的工作者, 能拿出道德上的勇气与谦卑, 积极努力—— 就像伊桑一样—— 与意见不同的人们沟通。 这就是我所期盼的。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause and cheers)
(掌声和欢呼声)