I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine, and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine.
在我四歲的時候, 我看見我的媽媽將衣物放進 她一生中第一次使用的洗衣機。 對我媽來說, 這是一個重要的日子 我的媽媽和爸爸存了很多年的錢 才能夠買到這台洗衣機 而這是它第一次被使用的日子, 甚至連奶奶都被邀請
(Laughter)
來看這台洗衣機。
And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.
奶奶還比媽媽更興奮 她這一輩子 都是靠柴火來燒熱水, 她必須用雙手 替七個孩子洗衣物 而現在她會看到 電力來做這件事
My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! Let me! Let me push the button!"
我媽媽小心地打開了門, 然後她將這些衣物 放進了洗衣機 就像這樣 然後, 當她關上門的時候, 奶奶說, "等等, 讓我來按這個按鈕。"
(Laughter)
然後奶奶按下了按鈕,
And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program.
她說, "喔, 真神奇啊 我想看看這個. 給我一張椅子 給我一張椅子, 我想看看它。" 於是她坐在洗衣機的前面, 她看了整個洗滌的流程
(Laughter)
她被迷住了
She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.
對我的奶奶來說, 洗衣機是一個奇蹟
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines. Look -- the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, and they live above what I call the "air line" --
現在, 在瑞典和其他有錢的國家, 人們使用著 各種不同的機器 看, 家裡堆滿了各種機器; 我甚至沒辦法說出全部的名稱 同時, 當他們想旅行時, 他們會使用飛機 來送他們到遙遠的地方 然而, 在這個世界裡, 還有許多人 需要生火來燒熱水, 也必須靠火來煮飯 有時候甚至沒有足夠的食物 他們活在貧窮的標準線之下 有二十億的人們 每天生活費用不到兩塊美金 而最富裕的人們 -- 有十億的人們 -- 他們生活在這條我稱為天際線之上,
(Laughter)
因為他們每天用在生活的花費
because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.
超過八十美金 但這只是十、二十、 三十億的人們,
But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is: How many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today, there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line."
但世界上有七十億的人口, 所以還有十、二十、三十、四十億的人, 生活在貧窮與天際線之間。 他們擁有電力, 但問題是, 多少人擁有洗衣機? 我做過市場調查, 我發現, 確實, 洗衣機在這條天際線之下, 而今日, 有十億人 生活在洗衣機線之上
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.
他們每天的花費超過四十美元 所以有二十億的人可以使用洗衣機
And the remaining five billion -- how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
那麼剩下的五十億人們, 是怎麼洗衣服的呢? 或者, 講明白一點, 世界上大部分的女人是怎麼洗衣服的呢? 因為對女人來說, 洗衣服仍然是件辛苦的事情 她們會這樣洗衣服: 用手洗 這是一件辛苦, 很耗費時間的工作, 這是她們每個禮拜都要花費好幾小時所做的事情 有時候她們必須將水從很遠的地方 帶回家中洗衣服 或是, 她們必須將衣物帶到很遠的溪流旁邊 所以, 她們想要有洗衣機 她們不想將生命中大部分的時間 用在這種又辛苦 又沒什麼價值的工作上. 她們的這個願望 和我奶奶的願望沒什麼不同 看這裡, 兩代之前的瑞典 -- 從溪流邊取水, 生火燒水和用手洗衣服 她們也同樣想要有洗衣機
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she isn't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- "How many of you don't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.
但是, 當我對著關心環保的學生們演說時, 他們告訴我, "不, 世界上的人們不可以都擁有汽車和洗衣機。" 我們該怎麼告訴這個女人 她不可以有一台洗衣機? 於是我問我的學生們, 在過去兩年中, 我問過他們, "你們之中有多少人不開車?" 一部分人自豪地舉起他們的手, 告訴我, "我不開車。" 接著我問他們一個艱困的問題: "你們之中 有多少人會用手洗牛仔褲和床單?" 結果沒有人舉手 即使是綠色運動的激進人士 也會使用洗衣機
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. Here we are. Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? The air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. And these ones, who have washing machines but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there, they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.
所以, 這種每個人都會使用的東西, 他們怎麼能夠期望別人不使用;有什麼特別的嗎? 我對世界上能源使用狀況進行了分析 就像這樣 看這邊, 你看這裡有七十億的人們, 天際等級的人, 洗衣機等級的人, 使用燈泡和生火的人們 這是一個單位, 一個石化燃料的單位 -- 石油, 煤炭或天然氣。 這是世界上的電力和能源主要的來源 整個世界使用了十二個單位的能源, 最有錢的十億人們, 他們用了六個單位。 有一半的能源被這七分之一的人口給用掉了 而這個有洗衣機的族群, 家中並未充斥其它機器的族群, 他們用了兩個單位。 這個族群用了三個單位, 每十億人用一個單位 他們也擁有電力 但這裡, 他們幾乎每十億人用不到一個單位 這樣總共是十二單位的能源
But the main concern for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use: first, population growth; second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And that will get you two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.
但是, 主要的問題是, 對於關心環保的學生們而言 -- 他們是對的 -- 是未來的狀況。 趨勢會是如何呢? 如果我們將趨勢線延伸, 一直到 2050 年, 不做任何進階的分析, 有兩件事會造成能源消耗的增加 第一, 人口的成長 第二, 經濟的成長 人口的增加主要發生在最貧窮的人們這邊, 因為他們有較高的兒童死亡率, 同時每個女人的平均生育數也比較多 於是, 這邊就會多出兩個, 但這並不太會造成能源使用量的改變
What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them "the New East" -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
接下來的是經濟成長 這邊所發生的經濟成長 -- 我稱之為新東方 -- 他們會跳過天際線 他們將會說, "跳!" 接著他們會開始使用跟舊西方一樣多的能源耗用量
(Laughter)
而那些人們, 他們想要有洗衣機
And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units -- still, the richest people use most of them. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course, they must be more energy efficient. They must change their behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do.
我說過的,他們將會移動到這裡。 於是他們會增加兩倍的能源使用量 而我們希望貧窮的人們能夠開始使用電燈 接著他們會擁有兩個小孩的家庭而不會阻止人口成長 但是能源的總耗用量 將會增加到 22 單位 而這 22 單位的主要使用者 仍然是最有錢的那些人 所以, 我們該做些什麼呢? 由於目前所存在的風險, 關於氣候變遷的高度可能性是存在的 這是真實的事情 當然, 他們必須更有效率的使用能源 他們必須改變使用習慣 他們也必須開始製造綠色能源, 更多的綠色能源 但, 在他們能夠作到同樣的能源耗用之前, 他們不應該去建議別人 -- 什麼該做, 什麼是不該做的。
(Laughter)
(掌聲)
(Applause)
這樣我們可以在整體上獲得更多綠色能源
Here, we can get more green energy all over.
這是我們期望發生的事
This is what we hope might happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them!
這在未來是一大挑戰 但是我向你保證, 在里約貧民窟中的這個女人, 她想要有洗衣機 她很高興她那位能源部長 能夠提供給每個人民電力 -- 所以人們都樂意投票給她 而她就是 Dilma Rousseff, 在這世界中最大的民主國家之一 的總統當選者 -- 從能源部長變成了總統 如果你有民主制度, 人們會為了洗衣機而投票 他們喜歡洗衣機
(Laughter)
And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now, Hans. We have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine.
它們神奇的地方在哪兒? 我媽媽在使用洗衣機的第一天 解釋洗衣機的神奇之處給我聽 她說, "現在 Hans, 我們把衣物放了進去; 洗衣機就會把衣物洗好 所以現在我們可以去圖書館了。" 由於這個神奇的事情: 你把衣物放進去以後, 你可以藉由洗衣機得到什麼? 你可以藉由洗衣機得到書本, 兒童讀物。 而媽媽有空可以念給我聽 她喜歡這件事,我得到了 "ABC" 這是我以教授作為工作的起點, 在我媽媽有空念給我聽之後 她也為自己得到了一些書 她開始唸英文, 學習這個作為第一外語 她讀了許多小說, 許多不同的小說 我們真的很愛洗衣機
(Laughter)
而媽媽和我想說的是,
And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you, industrialization. Thank you, steel mill. Thank you, power station. And thank you, chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."
"謝謝工業化 謝謝鋼鐵廠 謝謝電廠 謝謝化學製品工業, 給予我們唸書的時間。"
Thank you very much.
非常感謝大家
(Laughter)
(掌聲)
(Applause)