I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine, and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine.
Bil sem star samo 4 leta ko sem videl svojo mamo nalagati perilo v pralni stroj prvič v njenem življenju. To je bil velik dan za mojo mamo. Moja mama in oče sta varčevala leta in leta da sta lahko kupila to napravo in ko naj bi ga prvič uporabili smo povabili celo babico,
(Laughter)
da ga bo videla.
And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.
in babica je bila še bolj vznemirjena. Skozi svoje celo življenje je grela vodo na ognjišču in z rokami prala perilo za sedem otrok. In zdaj bo videla kako elektrika opravlja to delo.
My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! Let me! Let me push the button!"
Moja mama je pazljivo odprla vrata in naložila perilo v stroj, takole. In potem, ko je zaprla vrata, je babica rekla, "Ne, ne, ne, ne. Naj jaz, naj jaz pritisnem na gumb."
(Laughter)
In babica je pritisnila na gumb
And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program.
in rekla, "Oh, fantastično! To hočem videti! Dajte mi stol! Dajte mi stol! To hočem videti! " in usedla se je pred pralni stroj, in gledala celoten pralni program.
(Laughter)
Bila je očarana.
She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.
Za mojo babico, je bil pralni stroj čudež.
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines. Look -- the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, and they live above what I call the "air line" --
Danes, na Švedskem in v drugih bogatih državah ljudje uporabljajo toliko različnih naprav. Poglejte, domovi so jih polni. Vseh sploh ne znam poimenovati. In prav tako, ko hočejo potovati, uporabljajo naprave za letenje ki jih lahko odpeljejo na oddaljene kraje. Ampak, na svetu je še vedno toliko ljudi ki še zmeraj grejejo vodo na ognjišču in kuhajo hrano na ognjišču. Včasih nimajo niti dovolj hrane in živijo pod mejo revščine. Na svetu sta dve miljardi soljudi ki živita z manj kot dvema dolarjema na dan. In najbogatejši ljudje tukaj -- to je ena miljarda-- živijo nad, kot jaz temu pravim "zračno linijo"
(Laughter)
ker porabijo več kot 80$ na dan
because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.
za svoje potrebe. Ampak to je samo ena, dva, tri miljarde ljudi,
But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is: How many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today, there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line."
in seveda je na svetu sedem miljard ljudi, zato nam manjka še ena, dva, tri, štiri miljarde ljudi ki živijo med mejo revščine in zračno linijo. Oni imajo elektriko, ampak vprašanje je, koliko jih ima pralni stroj? Naredil sem pregled podatkov na trgu in odkril da, res, je pralni stroj prestopil zračno linijo in zdaj je na svetu dodatna miljarda ljudi ki živijo nad "pralno linijo".
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.
In oni porabijo več kot 40$ na dan. Torej dve miljardi ljudi imata dostop do pralnega stroja.
And the remaining five billion -- how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
In preostalih pet miljard, kako perejo oni? Oziroma, bodimo bolj natančni, kako pere večina žensk na svetu? Ker pranje perila še zmeraj ostaja težko delo za ženske. Takole perejo: na roke. To je težko, zamudno delo, ki ga opravljajo ure in ure vsak teden. In včasih morajo vodo prinesti od daleč stran da lahko perejo doma, ali pa morajo prinesti perilo k potoku daleč stran. In one hočejo pralni stroj. Nočejo zapraviti tako velikega dela življenja z opravljanjem tega težkega dela z relativno malo produktivnostjo. In njihova želja ni prav nič drugačna kot je bila želja moje babice. Poglejte tukaj, dve generaciji nazaj na Švedskem -- zbiranje vode v potoku, gretje na ognjišču in pranje. Prav tako si želijo pralnega stroja kot oni.
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she isn't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- "How many of you don't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.
Ampak ko predavam okoljsko ozaveščenim študentom mi pravijo, "Ne, vsak na svetu ne more imeti avtomobila in pralnega stroja." Kako lahko rečemo tej ženski, da ne bo imela pralnega stroja? In nato vprašam svoje študente, sprašujem jih zadnji dve leti, "Kdo od vas ne uporablja avtomobila?" In nekateri od njih ponosno dvignejo roko in rečejo: "Ne uporabljam avtomobila." In nato jim zastavim res težko vprašanje: "Koliko od vas si na roke pere kavbojke in rjuhe?" In nihče ne dvigne roke. Celo najbolj zagrizeni v "zelenem gibanju" uporabljajo pralni stroj.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. Here we are. Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? The air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. And these ones, who have washing machines but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there, they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.
Kako je torej to stvar, ki jo vsi uporabljajo in mislijo, da je drugi ne bodo? Kaj je posebnega na tem? Moral sem narediti analizo porabe energije na svetu. Tukaj je. Poglejte, tu lahko vidite 7 miljard ljudi: Ljudje v zraku, ljudje s pralnim strojem, ljudje z žarnico in ljudje z ognjiščem. Ena enota tu je energijska enota fosilnega goriva -- olje, premog ali plin. To je večina elektrike in energije na svetu. In to je 12 enot za cel svet, in najbogatejša miljarda ljudi, oni jih porabijo šest. Polovico energije porabi sedmina prebivalstva. In tile tu, ki imajo pralni stroj, a ne hiše polne drugih naprav, oni porabijo dve. ta skupina porabi tri, vsak eno. In oni imajo prav tako elektriko. In oni tam ne porabijo niti ene enote. Tako jih je 12.
But the main concern for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use: first, population growth; second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And that will get you two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.
Ampak glavna skrb okoljsko zaskrbljenih študentov -- in prav imajo -- se tiče prihodnosti. Kakšni so trendi? Če samo projeciramo trende brez kakršnekoli napredne analize, do leta 2050, sta tu dve stvari ki lahko povečata porabo energije. Prvič, rast prebivalstva. Drugič, ekonomska rast. Rast prebivalstva se bo zgodila večinoma med najbolj revnimi ljudmi tu, ker imajo veliko umrljivost otrok in veliko otrok na žensko. In s tem dobite dve dodatni miljardi, ampak to ne bo veliko spremenilo porabe energije.
What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them "the New East" -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
Kar se bo zgodilo, je ekonomska rast. Najboljši tu izmed rastočih gospodarstev -- jaz jim pravim Novi vzhod -- preskočili bodo zračno linijo. "Hop!" bodo rekli. In začeli bodo porabljati toliko kot stari zahod počne že sedaj.
(Laughter)
In ti ljudje, hočejo pralni stroj.
And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units -- still, the richest people use most of them. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course, they must be more energy efficient. They must change their behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do.
Povedal sem vam. Prišli bodo tja. In podvojili bodo porabo energije. In upamo da bodo revni ljudje dobili električno luč. In dobili bodo družino z dvema otrokoma brez da bi se ustavila rast prebivalstva. Ampak celotna poraba energije se bo povečala na 22 enot. In teh 22 enot -- še zmeraj bodo najbogatejši porabili največji del. Kaj moramo torej storiti? Ker tveganje, velika verjetnost klimatskih sprememb, je resnična. Resnična je. Seveda morajo biti bolj učinkoviti pri rabi energije. Spremeniti morajo svoje obnašanje na nek način. Prav tako morajo začeti s proizvodnjo zelene energije, veliko več zelene energije. Ampak dokler imajo enako porabo energije po osebi, ne bi smeli svetovati drugim -- kaj naj počnejo in kaj ne.
(Laughter)
(Aplavz)
(Applause)
Tukaj lahko dobimo več zelene energije.
Here, we can get more green energy all over.
To upamo da se bo zgodilo.
This is what we hope might happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them!
To je pravi izziv za prihodnost. Ampak lahko vam zagotovim da si ta ženska v faveli v Riu želi pralnega stroja. Zelo je zadovoljna s svojo ministrico za energijo ki je vsem priskrbela elektriko -- tako zadovoljna da je celo volila zanjo. In ona je postala Dilma Roisseff, izvoljena predsednica ene izmed največjih demokracij na svetu -- premaknila se s položaja ministrice za energijo na položaj predsednice. Če imate demokracijo, bodo ljudje glasovali za pralne stroje. Ljubijo jih.
(Laughter)
And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now, Hans. We have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine.
In v čem je njihova čarovnija? Moja mama mi je razložila čarovnijo tega stroja čisto prvi dan. Rekla je, "Zdaj Hans, sva naložila perilo. Stroj bo opravil svoje delo. In midva greva lahko v knjižnico." Ker to je čarovnija: naložiš perilo, in kaj dobiš ven iz stroja? Knjige dobiš iz njega, otroške knjige. In mama je imela čas da mi je lahko brala. Bila je navdušena. Dobil sem Abecedo -- tu sem začel svojo kariero kot profesor, ko je moja mama imela čas da mi je lahko brala. In dobila je knjige tudi zase. Uspela se je učiti angleško in se je naučila kot tuj jezik. In toliko romanov je prebrala, toliko različnih romanov. In res, res smo imeli radi ta stroj.
(Laughter)
In to sva rekla, moja mama in jaz,
And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you, industrialization. Thank you, steel mill. Thank you, power station. And thank you, chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."
"Hvala industrializacija. Hvala jeklarna. Hvala elektrarna. In hvala industrija kemične predelave, da si nam dala čas za branje knjig."
Thank you very much.
Najlepša hvala.
(Laughter)
(Aplavz)
(Applause)