I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine, and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine.
Bilo mi je samo četiri godine kada sam vidio kako moja mama puni perilicu rublja po prvi put u svom životu. To je bio veliki dan za moju majku. Moja majka i otac su štedjeli novac godinama kako bi mogli kupiti tu perilicu. I prvi dan kada se trebala početi koristiti, čak je i baka bila pozvana
(Laughter)
da vidi perilicu.
And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.
A baka je bila još uzbuđenija. Kroz cijeli svoj život grijala je vodu pomoću drva i vatre, i ručno je prala odjeću za sedmero djece. A sada će gledati kako struja radi taj posao.
My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! Let me! Let me push the button!"
Moja majka je pažljivo otvorila vrata, i stavila je odjeću u perilicu, ovako. A zatim, kada je zatvorila vrata, baka je rekla, "Ne, ne, ne, ne. Daj meni, daj meni da pritisnem gumb."
(Laughter)
I baka je pritisnula gumb,
And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program.
i rekla je, "O, fantastično. Želim vidjeti to. Dajte mi stolicu. Dajte mi stolicu. Želim vidjeti to." I sjela je ispred perilice, i promatrala je cijeli program pranja.
(Laughter)
Bila je zadivljena.
She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.
Mojoj baki, perilica rublja je bila čudo.
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines. Look -- the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, and they live above what I call the "air line" --
Danas, u Švedskoj i drugim bogatim zemljama, ljudi koriste toliko mnogo uređaja. Gledajte, domovi su puni uređaja; čak ih ne mogu ni sve nabrojati. I isto tako, kada žele putovati, oni koriste leteće strojeve koji ih mogu odvesti na udaljene destinacije. A ipak, u svijetu, ima toliko mnogo ljudi koji još uvijek griju vodu na vatri, i kuhaju svoju hranu na vatri. Ponekad nemaju čak ni dovoljno hrane. I oni žive ispod granice siromaštva. Ima dvije milijarde ljudskih bića koja žive s manje od dva dolara dnevno. A najbogatiji ljudi ovdje -- to je jedna milijarda ljudi -- a oni žive iznad onoga što ja nazivam zračna granica,
(Laughter)
jer troše više od 80$ dnevno
because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.
na njihovu potrošnju. Ali to je samo jedna, dvije, tri milijarde ljudi,
But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is: How many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today, there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line."
a očito na svijetu ima sedam milijardi ljudi, stoga mora biti jedna, dvije, tri, četiri milijarde ljudi više, koji žive između granice siromaštva i zračne granice. Oni imaju struju, ali pitanje je, koliko njih ima perilice rublja? Napravio sam pregled tržišnih podataka, i otkrio sam, doista, da je perilica rublja penetrirala ispod zračne linije, i danas postoji dodatna milijarda ljudi tamo koji žive iznad granice pranja.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.
I oni troše više od 40$ dnevno. Dakle, dvije milijarde ljudi ima pristup perilicama rublja.
And the remaining five billion -- how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
A ostalih pet milijardi, kako oni peru? Ili, da budemo precizni, kako većina žene na svijetu pere? Jer ostaje težak posao na ženama da peru. One peru ovako: ručno. To je težak rad koji uzima mnogo vremena, a koji moraju raditi satima svaki tjedan. I ponekad moraju isto tako donijeti vodu izdaleka kako bi oprali rublje kod kuće. Ili moraju odnijeti rublje na izvor koji je veoma udaljen. A one žele perilicu rublja. One ne žele provesti toliko velik dio svojih života radeći taj težak posao s relativnom malom produktivnošću. I ne razlikuju se u svojim željama od moje bake. Pogledajte ovdje, prije dvije generacije u Švedskoj -- uzimajući vodu iz potoka, zagrijavajući je pomoću vatre i prati ovako. One žele perilicu rublja na točno isti način.
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she isn't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- "How many of you don't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.
Ali kada predajem studentima zabrinutim za okoliš, oni mi kažu, "Ne, ne mogu svi na svijetu imati automobile i perilice rublja." Kako možemo reći ovoj ženi da ona neće imati perilicu rublja? A zatim pitam svoje studente, pitao sam ih -- tijekom protekle dvije godine sam ih pitao, "Koliko od vas ne koristi automobil?" I nekoliko njih ponosno digne ruke i kaže, "Ja ne koristim automobil." A zatim postavim doista teško pitanje: "Koliko od vas pere ručno svoje hlače i plahte?" I nitko ne digne ruku. Čak i oni najpredaniji zelenom pokretu koriste perilice rublja.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. Here we are. Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? The air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. And these ones, who have washing machines but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there, they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.
Dakle, kako to da nešto što svatko koristi i misle kako drugi neće prestati to koristiti; što je posebno kod toga? Morao sam napraviti analizu o potrošnji energije u svijetu. Evo nas. Gledajte ovdje, vidite sedam milijardi ljudi ovdje gore: zračni ljudi, ljudi pranja, ljudi žarulje i ljudi vatre. Jedna jedinica poput ove je jedinica energije fosilnog goriva -- nafta, ugljen ili plin. To je ono od čega se većina svjetske energije sastoji. I troši se 12 jedinica u cijelom svijetu, i milijardu najbogatijih, oni koriste šest jedinica. Polovicu energije koristi jedna sedmina svjetskog stanovništva. A ovi koji imaju perilice rublja, ali ne i kuću punu drugih uređaja, oni koriste dvije jedinice. Ova grupa koristi tri, svaka po jednu. A oni ujedno imaju i struju. A ovi ovdje ne koriste niti jednu. To čini 12 jedinica.
But the main concern for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use: first, population growth; second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And that will get you two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.
Ali glavna briga za studente zainteresirane za okoliš -- i oni su u pravu -- je za budućnost. Koji su trendovi? Ako samo produžimo trendove, bez ikakve stvarne napredne analize, do 2050. godine, postoje dvije stvari koje mogu povećati potrošnju energije. Prvo, rast stanovništva. Drugo, gospodarski rast. Rast stanovništva će se uglavnom odvijati ovdje među najsiromašnijim ljudima, jer oni imaju visoku stopu smrtnosti djece i oni imaju mnogo djece po ženi. A s time ćete dobiti dodatna dva, ali to neće previše promijeniti potrošnju energije.
What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them "the New East" -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
Ono što će se dogoditi je gospodarski rast. Najbolji ovdje u ekonomijama u usponu -- ja ih nazivam "Novi istok" -- oni će preskočiti zračnu granicu. "Wopp!" će reći. I počet će koristiti toliko koliko sada koristi "Stari zapad".
(Laughter)
A ovi ljudi, oni žele perilice rublja.
And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units -- still, the richest people use most of them. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course, they must be more energy efficient. They must change their behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do.
Rekao sam vam. Oni će ići ovdje. I oni će udvostručiti svoju potrošnju energije. I nadamo se kako će siromašni ljudi doći pod električnu žarulju. I dobit će obitelj s dvoje djece bez prestanka rasta stanovništva. Ali ukupna potrošnja energije će narasti na 22 jedinice. A od te 22 jedinice, još uvijek najbogatiji ljudi koriste najviše njih. Dakle, što treba učiniti? Zbog rizika, visoka vjerojatnost klimatskih promjena je stvarna. Stvarna je. Naravno da trebaju biti energetski učinkovitiji. Moraju promijeniti ponašanje na neki način. Moraju ujedno početi proizvoditi zelenu energiju, mnogo više zelene energije. Ali sve dok imaju istu potrošnju energije po osobi, ne bi trebali davati savjete drugima -- što učiniti i što ne učiniti.
(Laughter)
(Pljesak)
(Applause)
Ovdje posvuda možemo dobiti više zelene energije.
Here, we can get more green energy all over.
To je ono čemu se nadamo da će se dogoditi.
This is what we hope might happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them!
To je pravi izazov u budućnosti. Ali mogu vam jamčiti da ova žena u siromašnoj četvrti u Riu, želi perilicu rublja. Ona je vrlo sretna sa svojom ministricom energije koja je dala struju svima -- toliko sretna da je čak i glasala za nju. I ona je postala Dilma Rousseff, izabrana predsjednica jedne od najvećih demokracija na svijetu -- prelazeći od ministrice energije do predsjednice. Ako imate demokraciju, ljudi će glasati za perilice rublja. Oni ih vole.
(Laughter)
And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now, Hans. We have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine.
A što je čarobno kod njih? Moja majka mi je objasnila čaroliju tog stroja prvi dan. Rekla je, "Sada, Hans, napunili smo je rubljem; perilica će napraviti posao. I sada možemo ići u knjižnicu." Jer to je čarolija: napunite je rubljem, a što izlazi van iz perilice? Iz nje izlaze knjige, dječje knjige. I majka je imala vremena da mi ih čita. Ona je voljela to. Dobio sam "ABC." Tu sam započeo svoju karijeru kao profesor, kada je moja majka imala vremena da mi čita. I isto tako je uzimala knjige za sebe. Uspjela je učiti engleski i naučiti to kao strani jezik. I ovdje je čitala toliko mnogo romana, toliko mnogo različitih romana. I mi smo doista, doista voljeli taj stroj.
(Laughter)
I što smo rekli, moja majka i ja,
And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you, industrialization. Thank you, steel mill. Thank you, power station. And thank you, chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."
"Hvala industrijalizaciji. Hvala željezari. Hvala električnoj centrali. I hvala kemijskoj prerađivačkoj industriji koja nam je dala vremena da čitamo knjige."
Thank you very much.
Puno vam hvala.
(Laughter)
(Pljesak)
(Applause)