I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine, and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine.
Eu tiña só catro anos cando vin á miña nai cargar a lavadora por primeira vez na súa vida. Foi un gran día para a miña nai. A miña nai e o meu pai estiveran aforrando diñeiro durante anos para poder mercar a máquina. E o primeiro día no que ía ser usada, ata a miña avoa foi convidada
(Laughter)
a ver a máquina.
And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.
E a avoa estaba aínda máis entusiasmada. Ao longo da súa vida ela estivera quentando auga con leña, e lavara a man a roupa de sete nenos. E agora ía ver como a electricidade facía ese traballo.
My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! Let me! Let me push the button!"
A miña nai abriu a porta con coidado, e cargou a roupa na máquina, así. E entón, cando ela pechou a porta, a avoa dixo, "Non, non, non, non. Déixame, déixame premer o botón."
(Laughter)
E a avoa premeu o botón,
And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program.
e dixo, "Oh, fantástico. Quero ver isto. Dádeme unha cadeira. Dádeme unha cadeira. Quero velo." E sentou diante da máquina, e viu o programa de lavado enteiro.
(Laughter)
Estaba abraiada.
She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.
Para a miña avoa, a lavadora era unha milagre.
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines. Look -- the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, and they live above what I call the "air line" --
Hoxe, en Suecia e outros países ricos, a xente usa moitas máquinas diferentes. Mirade, as casas están cheas de máquinas; Nin sei o nome de todas. E eles tamén, cando queren viaxar, usan máquinas voadoras que poden levalos a destinos remotos. Mais, no mundo, hai tanta xente que aínda quenta auga ao lume, e que cociña a súa comida ao lume. Ás veces nin sequera teñen comida abonda. E viven por debaixo da liña de pobreza. Hai 2 mil millóns de compañeiros seres humanos que viven con menos de dous dólares ao día. E a xente rica aí -- hai mil millóns de persoas -- e viven por enriba do que eu chamo a liña do ar
(Laughter)
porque gastan máis de 80 dólares por día
because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.
de consumo. Pero isto son só un, dous, tres mil millóns de persoas,
But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is: How many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today, there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line."
e obviamente hai sete mil millóns de persoas no mundo, así que teñen que existir un, dous, tres, catro mil millóns de persoas máis, que viven entre a pobreza e a liña do ar. Teñen electricidade, pero a pregunta é, cantos teñen lavadoras? Fixen unha análise dos datos de mercado, e atopei que, de feito, a lavadora penetrou por debaixo da liña do ar, e hoxe existen mil millóns de persoas a maiores que viven por enriba da liña de lavado.
(Laughter)
(Sorrisos)
And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.
E consumen máis de 40 dólares ao día. Así que dous mil millóns teñen acceso a lavadoras.
And the remaining five billion -- how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
E os cinco mil millóns restantes, como lavan? Ou, para ser máis exactos, como lavan a maioría das mulleres do mundo? Porque lavar segue a ser un traballo duro para as mulleres. Elas lavan así: a man. É unha tarefa dura e que leva tempo, que teñen que facer durante horas cada semana. E ás veces tamén teñen que carrexar auga de lonxe para facer a coada na casa. Ou teñen que levar a roupa a un regato afastado. E queren a lavadora. Non queren pasar tanto tempo na súa vida facendo este traballo duro cunha produtividade relativamente baixa. E non hai nada diferente no seu desexo do que tiña a miña avoa. Mirade aquí, hai dúas xeracións en Suecia -- collendo auga dun regato, quentándoa ao lume e lavando así. Queren a lavadora exactamente do mesmo xeito.
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she isn't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- "How many of you don't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.
Pero cando dou aulas a estudantes preocupados polo medio ambiente, eles dinme, "Non, non todo o mundo pode ter coches e lavadoras." Como podemos dicirlle a esta muller que non vai ter unha lavadora? E entón eu pregúntolles aos meus estudantes, Lévolles preguntando -- durante os últimos dous anos preguntei, "Cantos de vós non usades un coche?" E algúns deles erguen a man con orgullo e din, "Eu non uso coche." E entón lanzo a pregunta realmente dura: "Cantos de vós lavades a man os vosos pantalóns e a roupa da cama?" E ninguén ergue a man. Incluso os máis radicais no movemento ecoloxista usan lavadoras.
(Laughter)
(Sorrisos)
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. Here we are. Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? The air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. And these ones, who have washing machines but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there, they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.
Entón, como é que isto é algo que todo o mundo usa e pensan que ninguén deixará de facelo? Que ten de especial? Tiven que facer unha análise sobre a enerxía usada no mundo. Aquí está. Mirade isto, vedes os sete mil millóns de persoas aí enriba: a xente do ar, xente do lavado, a xente das bombillas, e a xente do lume. Unha unidade destas é unha unidade de enerxía de combustible fósil -- petróleo, carbón ou gas. Iso é o que a maioría da enerxía no mundo é. E todo o mundo usa 12 unidades, e os mil millóns máis ricos, usan seis delas. A metade da enerxía é usada por unha sétima parte da poboación mundial. E estes que teñen lavadoras, pero non unha casa chea doutras máquinas, usan dúas. Este grupo usa tres, unha cada un. E teñen tamén electricidade. E aí non usan nin unha cada un. Iso fai o total de 12.
But the main concern for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use: first, population growth; second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And that will get you two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.
Pero a principal preocupación para os estudantes interesados no medio ambiente -- e teñen razón -- é o futuro. Cales son as tendencias? Se prolongamos as tendencias, sen ningunha análise real avanzada, ata 2050, hai dúas cousas que poden incrementar o consumo de enerxía. Primeiro, o crecemento da poboación. Segundo, o crecemento económico. O crecemento da poboación acontecerá principalmente entre a xente máis pobre, porque teñen mortaldade infantil alta e teñen moitos fillos por muller. E con iso temos dúas a maiores, pero iso non vai cambiar o uso da enerxía moito.
What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them "the New East" -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
O que acontecerá é o crecemento económico. O mellor del nas economías emerxentes -- eu chámolles o Novo Leste -- saltarán a liña do ar. "Wopp!" dirán. E comezarán a consumir tanto como o Vello Oeste está a facer xa.
(Laughter)
E esta xente, queren a lavadora.
And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units -- still, the richest people use most of them. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course, they must be more energy efficient. They must change their behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do.
Díxenvolo. Subirán aí. E van multiplicar por dous o seu consumo enerxético. E esperamos que a xente pobre chegue a ter luz eléctrica. E terán unha familia de dous fillos sen unha interrupción do crecemento poboacional. Pero o consumo enerxético total incrementarase a 22 unidades. E destas 22 unidades ainda a xente máis rica usa a maior parte. Entón, que debe facerse? Porque o risco, a alta probabilidade de cambio climático é real. É real. Por suposto eles teñen que ser máis eficientes coa enerxía. Teñen que cambiar o seu comportamento dalgún xeito. Teñen tamén que comezar a producir enerxía verde, moita máis enerxía verde. Pero ata que teñan o mesmo consumo enerxético por persoa, non deberían darlles consellos a outros -- qué facer e qué non facer.
(Laughter)
(Aplausos)
(Applause)
Aquí podemos obter máis enerxía verde.
Here, we can get more green energy all over.
Isto é o que esperamos que poida acontecer.
This is what we hope might happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them!
É un reto real para o futuro. Pero eu podo asegurarvos que esta muller na favela de Rio, quere unha lavadora. Ela está moi contenta coa súa ministra de enerxía que lles proporcionou electricidade a todos -- tan contenta que ata votou por ela. E ela converteuse en Dilma Rousseff, a presidenta electa dunha das maiores democracias do mundo -- pasando de ministra de enerxía a presidenta. Se tedes unha democracia, a xente vai votar polas lavadoras. A eles encántanlles.
(Laughter)
And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now, Hans. We have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine.
E cal é a maxia que teñen? A miña nai explicou a maxia desta máquina o primeiro día. Dixo, "Agora, Hans, que xa cargamos a roupa, a máquina vai facer o traballo. E agora podemos ir á biblioteca." Porque esta é a maxia: cargas a roupa, e que obtés da máquina? Obtés libros das máquinas, libros para nenos. E a miña nai tivo tempo para lerme. Encantáballe. Obtiven o "ABC." Aí foi cando comecei a miña carreira como mestre, cando a miña nai tivo tempo para lerme. E tamén obtivo libros para ela. Puido estudar inglés e aprendelo como lingua estranxeira. E leu tantas novelas, tantas novelas diferentes. E nós queríamoslle de verdade a esta máquina.
(Laughter)
E o que dixemos, a miña nai e máis eu, foi
And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you, industrialization. Thank you, steel mill. Thank you, power station. And thank you, chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."
"Grazas industralización. Grazas fábrica de aceiro. Grazas central eléctrica. E grazas industria de procesamento químico por darnos tempo para ler libros."
Thank you very much.
Moitas grazas.
(Laughter)
(Aplausos)
(Applause)