I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine, and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine.
Ma olin vaid nelja-aastane, kui ma nägin oma ema esimest korda elus pesumasinat laadimas. See oli mu ema jaoks tähtis päev. Mu ema ja isa olid aastaid raha kogunud, et nad saaks endale selle masina osta. Ja esimesel päeval, kui seda kasutati, kutsuti isegi vanaema
(Laughter)
uut masinat vaatama.
And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.
Ja vanaema oli isegi veel rohkem põnevil. Terve oma elu jooksul oli ta küttepuudega vett soojendanud ja seitsme lapse pesu käsitsi pesnud. Ja nüüd sai ta vaadata, kuidas elekter selle töö ära teeb.
My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! Let me! Let me push the button!"
Mu ema avas ettevaatlikult ukse ja pani pesu pesumasinasse. Vot niimoodi. Ja siis, kui ta ukse sulges, ütles vanaema: "Ei, ei, ei, ei. Las mina, las mina vajutan nuppu."
(Laughter)
Ja vanaema vajutas nuppu
And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program.
ja ütles: "Oo, imeline. Ma tahan seda näha. Andke mulle tool. Andke mulle tool, ma tahan seda näha." Ja ta istus pesumasina ette ja ta vaatas terve pesuprogrammi lõpuni.
(Laughter)
Ta oli hüpnotiseeritud.
She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.
Minu vanaema jaoks oli pesumasin ime.
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines. Look -- the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, and they live above what I call the "air line" --
Tänapäeval kasutavad inimesed Rootsis ja teistes rikastes riikides nii palju erinevaid masinaid. Vaadake, kodud on masinad täis, ma ei oska neile kõigile nimegi anda. Ja lisaks, kui nad reisida tahavad, siis nad kasutavad lendavaid masinaid, mis viivad neid kaugetesse sihtpunktidesse. Ja siiski on maailmas nii palju inimesi, kes ikka veel soojendavad vett tule abil ja teevad süüa tulel. Vahel pole neil isegi piisavalt sööki. Ja nad elavad allpool vaesuspiiri. Maailmas on 2 miljardit inimest, kes elavad vähema kui 2 dollariga päevas. Ja rikkaimad inimesed sealpool -- seal on miljard inimest -- ja nemad elavad ülalpool nii-öelda õhupiiri,
(Laughter)
sest nad kulutavad
because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.
rohkem kui 80 dollarit päevas. Aga see on kõigest üks, kaks, kolm miljardit inimest,
But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is: How many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today, there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line."
ja teadagi on maailmas seitse miljardit, seega peab olema veel üks, kaks, kolm, neli miljardit inimest, kes elavad vaesuspiiri ja õhupiiri vahel. Neil on elekter, aga küsimus on, kui paljudel neist on pesumasin? Ma olen turuandmeid põhjalikud analüüsinud ja ma olen avastanud, et tõepoolest, pesumasin on tunginud ka allapoole õhupiiri ja tänapäeval on veel täiendavalt miljard inimest, kes elavad ülalpool pesupiiri.
(Laughter)
(Naer)
And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.
Ja nad kulutavad rohkem kui 40 dollarit päevas. Seega kahel miljardil on ligipääs pesumasinale.
And the remaining five billion -- how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
Ja ülejäänud 5 miljardit, kuidas nemad pesu pesevad? Või, täpsemalt öeldes, kuidas enamik naisi maailmas pesu peseb? Sest raske pesupesemine on jätkuvalt naiste töö. Nad pesevad niimoodi - käsitsi. See on raske, aeganõudev töö, mida nad peavad tegema tundide viisi iga nädal. Ja mõnikord peavad nad ka kaugelt vett tooma, et pesu kodus pesta. Või peavad nad pesu kaugelasuva jõe äärde tassima. Ja nad tahavad pesumasinat. Nad ei taha veeta nii suurt osa oma elust, tehes seda rasket tööd, millel on nii väike produktiivsus. Ja nende soov ei ole kuidagi erinev minu vanaema soovist. Vaadake, kaks põlvkonda tagasi Rootsis -- jõest vett ammutades, tulel vett soojendades ja niimoodi pestes. Nad tahavad pesumasinat täpselt sama moodi.
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she isn't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- "How many of you don't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.
Aga kui ma pean loengut keskkonnateadlikele tudengitele, ütlevad nad mulle: "Ei, kõigil maailmas ei saa olla autosid ja pesumasinaid." Kuidas me saame sellele naisele öelda, et tema ei saa endale kunagi pesumasinat? Ja siis ma küsin oma õpilastelt, ma olen neilt viimasel kahel aastal küsinud: "Kui paljud teist ei kasuta autot?" Ja mõni neist tõstab uhkustundega käe ja ütleb: "Mina ei kasuta autot." Ja siis ma esitan neile tõeliselt ebamugava küsimuse: "Kui paljud teist pesevad käsitsi oma teksasid ja voodipesu?" Ja mitte keegi ei tõstnud kätt. Isegi padurohelised kasutavad pesumasinat.
(Laughter)
(Naer)
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. Here we are. Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? The air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. And these ones, who have washing machines but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there, they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.
Kuidas on võimalik, et see on midagi, mida kõik kasutavad, ja nad arvavad, et teised ei tohiks; mis teeb selle asja eriliseks? Ma tegin analüüsi energiakasutuse kohta maailmas. Siin see on. Vaadake, te näete seal seitset miljardit inimest: õhuinimesed, pesuinimesed, elektripirni-inimesed ja tuleinimesed. Üks selline ühik on fossiilkütuse energiaühik -- õli, süsi või gaas. Just need annavad suurema osa maailma elektrist ja energiast. Ja terves maailmas kasutatakse 12 sellist ühikut ja rikkaim miljard kasutab nendest kuus. Üks seitsmendik maailma rahvastikust kasutab poole energiast. Ja need, kellel on küll pesumasin, aga mitte tervet majatäit teisi masinaid, nemad kasutavad kaks. See grupp kasutab kolm ühikut, igaüks ühe. Ja neil on ka elekter. Ja seal ei kasuta nad isegi ühte igaüks. See teeb kokku 12.
But the main concern for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use: first, population growth; second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And that will get you two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.
Aga keskkonnateadlike tudengite peamine mure, ja neil on õigus, puudutab tulevikku. Millised on praegused trendid? Kui me lihtsalt pikendame neid trende, ilma põhjaliku analüüsita, kuni aastani 2050, siis on kaks asja, mis võivad energiakasutust suurendada. Esiteks, rahvastiku kasv. Teiseks, majanduskasv. Rahvastiku kasvu näeme enamasti vaesemate inimeste hulgas, sest neil on kõrge laste suremus ja neil on palju lapsi naise kohta. Ja sellega tuleb kaks ühikut lisaks, aga see ei muuda energiakasutust oluliselt.
What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them "the New East" -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
Aga siis on veel majanduskasv. Kasvavate majanduste edukamad -- ma kutsun neid Uueks Idaks -- nemad hüppavad üle õhupiiri. "Hopsti!" ütlevad nad. Ja nad hakkavad kasutama sama palju kui lääneriigid praegu.
(Laughter)
Ja need inimesed, nad tahavad pesumasinat.
And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units -- still, the richest people use most of them. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course, they must be more energy efficient. They must change their behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do.
Ma ju ütlesin. Nad lähevad sinna. Ja nad kahekordistavad oma energiakulu. Ja me loodame, et vaesed inimesed saavad elektrivalguse. Ja tulevikus on neil kahe lapsega pered, ilma et rahvastiku kasv peatuks. Aga kogu energiatarbimine kasvab 22 ühikuni. Ja nendest 22 ühikust kasutavad enamiku jätkuvalt rikkaimad inimesed. Niisiis, mis tuleks ette võtta? Sest kliimamuutuse oht ja suur tõenäosus on reaalne. See on tõeline. Muidugi peavad nad olema energiatõhusamad. Nad peavad oma käitumist mingil moel muutma. Nad peavad hakkama tootma ka rohelist energiat, palju rohkem rohelist energiat. Aga senini, kui neil on sama energiakulu inimese kohta, ei tohiks nad teistele nõu anda -- mida teha ja mida mitte teha.
(Laughter)
(Aplaus)
(Applause)
Siin võib meil olla rohkem rohelist energiat.
Here, we can get more green energy all over.
Seda me loodame.
This is what we hope might happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them!
See on tulevikus tõeline väljakutse. Aga ma võin teile kinnitada, et see naine Rio de Janeiro slummis tahab pesumasinat. Ta on väga õnnelik oma energiaministri üle, kes varustas kõik elektriga -- nii õnnelik, et ta isegi hääletas tema poolt. Ja sellest ministrist sai Dilma Rousseff, ühe maailma suurima demokraatia ametisse valitud president, tõustes ministriametist presidenditoolile. Kui riigis valitseb demokraatia, siis inimesed hääletavad pesumasinate poolt. Nad armastavad neid.
(Laughter)
And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now, Hans. We have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine.
Ja milles seisneb nende maagia? Mu ema selgitas selle masina võlu kohe esimesel päeval. Ta ütles: "Nüüd, Hans, oleme pesu masinasse pannud, masin teeb ülejäänud töö. Ja nüüd me saame raamatukokku minna." Sest see ongi asja võlu -- sa paned pesu masinasse, ja mida sa masinast saad? Sa saad masinatest raamatuid, lasteraamatuid. Ja emal oli nüüd aega mulle lugeda. Ta armastas seda. Siin on aabits. Just seal alustasin ma oma professorikarjääri, kui mu emal oli aega mulle lugeda. Ja ta laenutas raamatuid ka endale. Tal õnnestus võõrkeelena inglise keelt õppida. Ja ta luges nii palju romaane, nii palju erinevaid romaane. Ja me tõepoolest armastasime seda masinat.
(Laughter)
Ja mida mu ema ja mina ütlesime:
And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you, industrialization. Thank you, steel mill. Thank you, power station. And thank you, chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."
"Aitäh, industrialiseerimine. Aitäh, terasetehas. Aitäh, jõujaam. Ja aitäh, keemiatööstus, et andsid meile aega raamatuid lugeda."
Thank you very much.
Suur aitäh.
(Laughter)
(Aplaus)
(Applause)