Jeg var kun fire år gammel da jeg så min mor fylde en vaskemaskine for første gang i sit liv. Det var en stor dag for min mor. Min mor og far havde sparet op i årevis for at få råd til at købe den maskine. Den første dag, den skulle bruges blev bedstemor endda inviteret til at se maskinen. Og bedstemor var endnu mere spændt. Gennem hendes liv havde hun varmet vand med brænde, og hun havde vasket tøj i hånden for syv børn. Og nu skulle hun se elektriciteten gøre arbejdet.
I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine, and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine. (Laughter) And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.
Min mor åbnede forsigtigt døren, og hun puttede vasketøjet ind i maskinen, sådan her. Og så, da hun lukkede døren, sagde bedstemor: "Nej, nej, nej, nej. Lad mig, lad mig trykke på knappen." Og bedstemor trykkede på knappen, og hun sagde, "Åh, fantastisk. Jeg vil se dette. Giv mig en stol. Giv mig en stol. Jeg vil se det." Og hun sad ned foran maskinen, og hun så hele vaskeprogrammet. Hun var tryllebundet. For min bedstemor, var vaskemaskinen et mirakel.
My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! Let me! Let me push the button!" (Laughter) And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program. (Laughter) She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.
I dag, i Sverige og andre rige lande, bruger folk så mange forskellige maskiner. Hjemmene er fyldt med maskiner; jeg kan ikke engang nævne dem alle. Og når folk vil rejse, bruger de flyvemaskiner som kan bringe dem til fjerne destinationer. Og alligevel, er der så mange folk i verden, som stadig varmer vandet over ild, og de laver mad på bål. Nogen gange har de ikke engang nok mad. Og de lever under fattigdomsgrænsen. Der er to milliarder mennesker som lever for under to dollars om dagen. Og de rigeste folk -- det er en milliard mennesker -- og de lever over det jeg kalder himmelgrænsen, fordi de bruger mere end 80 dollars om dagen på forbrug.
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines. Look -- the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, and they live above what I call the "air line" -- (Laughter) because they spend more than 80 dollars a day
Men det er kun en, to, tre milliarder mennesker, for der er jo syv milliarder mennesker i verden, så der må være en, to, tre, fire milliarder mennesker mere, som lever mellem fattigdoms- og himmelgrænsen. De har elektricitet, men spørgsmålet er, hvor mange der har vaskemaskine? Jeg har foretaget en granskning af markedet, og har fundet ud af, at vaskemaskinen har indtaget befolkningen under himmelgrænsen, og i dag er der en ekstra milliard mennesker derude, som lever over vaskemaskinegrænsen. (Latter) Og de forbruger mere end 40 dollars om dagen. Så to milliarder har adgang til vaskemaskiner.
on their consumption. But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is: How many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today, there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line." (Laughter) And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.
Og de sidste fem milliarder, hvordan vasker de tøj? Eller, for at være mere præcis, hvordan vasker flertallet af kvinder i denne verden tøj? For det er hårdt arbejde for kvinder at vaske tøj. De vasker sådan her: i hånden. Det er hårdt, tidskrævende arbejde, som de hver uge må bruge timevis på. Og nogen gange må de også hente vand langt væk fra, for at vaske tøjet derhjemme. Eller de må bringe vasketøjet til en flod langt borte. Og de vil gerne have en vaskemaskine. De ønsker ikke at bruge så stor en del af deres liv på dette hårde arbejde med så relativt lav produktivitet. Og deres ønske er ikke anderledes end det, min bedstemor havde. Se, for to generationer siden i Sverige -- da hentede vi vand fra floderne, varmede op vha. brænde, og vaskede tøj på den måde. De ønsker en vaskemaskine af præcis de samme grunde.
And the remaining five billion -- how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
Men når jeg underviser miljøbekymrede studerende, siger de til mig, "Nej, ikke alle i verden kan have biler og vaskemaskiner." Hvordan kan vi sige til denne kvinde, at hun ikke skal have en vaskemaskine? Og så spørger jeg mine elever, jeg har spurgt dem -- gennem de sidste to år har jeg spurgt, "Hvor mange af jer bruger ikke en bil?" Og nogen af dem rejser stolt deres hånd og siger "Jeg bruger ikke nogen bil." Og så stiller jeg et rigtig hårdt spørgsmål: "Hvor mange af jer vakser jeres jeans og dynebetræk i hånden?" Og ingen rejser deres hånd. Selv de allermest hardcore i den grønne bevægelse bruger vaskemaskiner.
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she isn't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- "How many of you don't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.
(Latter)
(Laughter)
Så hvorfor er det noget, som alle bruger, hvad er det, der er så specielt ved det? Jeg foretog en analyse om verdens energiforbrug. Her er vi. Se her, I kan se de syv milliarder mennesker heroppe: himmelfolket, vaskefolket, pærefolket og brændefolket. En enhed som denne er en energi-enhed af fossil brændsel -- olie, kul eller gas. Sådan er det meste af verdens elektricitet og energi. Og det er 12 enheder brugt i hele verden, og den rigeste millard bruger 6 af dem. Halvdelen af energien bruges af hver syvende person i verden. Og dem som har vaskemaskiner, men ikke et hus fuld af andre maskiner, de bruger to. Denne gruppe bruger tre, en hver. Og de har også elektricitet. Og derovre bruger de slet ikke en hver. Det giver 12 i alt.
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. Here we are. Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? The air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. And these ones, who have washing machines but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there, they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.
Men den største bekymring for de miljøinteresserede studerende -- og de har ret -- er fremtiden. Hvad er tendenserne? Hvis vi bare forlænger tendenserne, uden nogen særligt avanceret analyse, til 2050, er der to ting som kan øge energiforbruget. 1: befolkningstilvækst. 2: økonomisk vækst. Befolkningstilvækst vil hovedsagligt finde sted blandt de fattigste folk, fordi de har en høj børnedødelighed, og de får mange børn per kvinde. Og med det får vi to ekstra, men det vil ikke ændre energiforbruget særligt meget.
But the main concern for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use: first, population growth; second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And that will get you two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.
Det, som vil ske, er økonomsik vækst. De bedste af de frembrusende økonomier, jeg kalder dem New East -- de vil ryge over himmelgrænsen. "Wopp!", vil de sige. Og de vil begynde at bruge lige så meget, som det Gamle Vesten allerede gør. Og disse mennesker, de vil have vaskemaskiner. Jeg sagde det jo. De kommer dertil. Og de vil fordoble deres energiforbrug. Og vi håber at de fattige folk vil bruge elektrisk lys. Og de vil få en familie med to børn, uden et stop i befolkningstilvæksten. Men det totale energiforbrug vil stige til 22 enheder. Og af disse 22 enheder vil de fleste stadig blive brugt af de rigeste folk. Så hvad skal vi gøre? For risikoen, den store sandsynlighed for klimaforandringer, er reel. Det er reelt. Selvfølgelig må de være mere energieffektive. De må ændre opførsel. De må også begynde at producere grøn energi, meget mere grøn energi. Men indtil de har det samme energiforbrug per person, bør de ikke rådgive andre -- om, hvad man skal og ikke skal. (Bifald) Her kan vi få mere grøn energi over det hele.
What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them "the New East" -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already. (Laughter) And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units -- still, the richest people use most of them. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course, they must be more energy efficient. They must change their behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do. (Laughter) (Applause)
Det er, hvad vi håber vil ske. Det er en stor udfordring i fremtiden. Men jeg forsikrer jer, at denne kvinde i slummen i Rio, hun ønsker sig en vaskemaskine. Hun er meget glad for energiministeren, som sørgede for elektricitet til alle -- så glad, at hun endda stemte på hende. Og hun blev Dilma Rousseff, den valgte præsident, i et verdens største demokratier -- fra at være energiminister til at være præsident. Hvis der er demokrati, vil folk stemme for vaskemaskiner. De elsker dem.
Here, we can get more green energy all over. This is what we hope might happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them!
(Laughter)
Og hvad er det magiske ved dem? Min mor forklarede magien ved den maskine, den aller, aller første dag. Hun sagde, "Så Hans, vi har puttet vasketøjet ind; maskinen gør arbejdet. Og nu kan vi gå på biblioteket." Fordi dette er magien: man putter vasketøjet ind, og hvad får man ud af maskinen? Man får bøger, børnebøger. Og min mor fik tid til at læse for mig. Hun elskede det. Jeg fik "ABC"-bogen. Det var her, jeg startede min karriere som professor, da min mor fik tid til at læse for mig. Og hun fik også bøger til sig selv. Hun studerede engelsk, og lærte det som et fremmedsprog. Og hun læste så mange romaner, så mange forskellige bøger her. Og vi elskede virkelig denne maskine.
And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now, Hans. We have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine.
Og vi sagde, min mor og jeg, "Tak skal du have, industrialisering. Tak, stålmølle. Tak, elværk. Og tak, kemi-industri, som gav os tid til at læse bøger."
(Laughter) And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you, industrialization. Thank you, steel mill. Thank you, power station. And thank you, chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."
Mange tak.
Thank you very much.
(Bifald)
(Laughter)