Ek was net 4 jaar oud toe ek my ma ’n wasmasjien sien laai vir die eerste keer in haar lewe. Dit was ’n wonderlike dag vir haar. My ouers het jare lank gespaar om die masjien te kon koop. Op die eerste dag wat ons dit sou gebruik, is selfs Ouma genooi om die masjien te sien. En Ouma was nog meer opgewonde. Regdeur haar lewe het sy water oor die vuur warm gemaak en wasgoed met die hand gewas vir sewe kinders. En nou gaan sy sien hoe elektrisiteit die werk doen.
I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine, and the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine. (Laughter) And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children. And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work. My mother carefully opened the door,
My ma maak die deur versigtig oop en sy laai die wasgoed in die masjien, só... En toe sy die deur toemaak, sê Ouma, "Nee, nee, nee. Laat ek die knoppie druk."
and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no! Let me! Let me push the button!"
En Ouma druk die knoppie en sy sê, "O, fantasties! Ek wil sien! Gee vir my ’n stoel! Ek wil sien!" En sy sit voor die masjien, en sy kyk die hele wasprogram. Sy was betower.
(Laughter) And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic! I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it," and she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program. (Laughter)
Vir my ouma, was die wasmasjien ’n wonderwerk.
She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle. Today, in Sweden and other rich countries,
Vandag, in Swede en ander welaf lande, gebruik mense baie verskillende masjiene. Kyk, die huise is vol masjiene. Ek kan nie eens almal opnoem nie. En ook, wanneer hulle wil reis, gebruik hulle vlieënde masjiene wat hulle na afgeleë bestemmings neem. En tog is daar so baie mense wat steeds hulle water op ’n vuur verhit, en hul kos oor vuur kook. Soms het hulle nie eens genoeg kos nie. En hulle lewe onder die broodlyn. Daar is twee miljard medemense wat op minder as $2 ’n dag leef. En die rykste mense daar -- daar's een miljard mense -- hulle leef bo, wat ek die "luglyn" noem, omdat hulle meer as $80 ’n dag spandeer op hulle verbruik.
people are using so many different machines. Look -- the homes are full of machines. I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people, and they live above what I call the "air line" -- (Laughter) because they spend more than 80 dollars a day on their consumption.
Maar dis slegs drie miljard mense, terwyl daar sewe miljard mense in die wêreld is, so daar moet vier miljard mense wees, wat tussen armoede en die luglyn leef. Hulle het elektrisiteit, maar die vraag is: Hoeveel het wasmasjiene? Ek't die data ondersoek, en gevind, inderdaad, dat die wasmasjien tot onder die luglyn deurgedring het, en vandag is daar ’n addisionele een miljard mense wat bo die "wasgoedlyn" leef. (Gelag) Hulle verbruik meer as $40 per dag. So twee miljard het toegang tot wasmasjiene.
But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is: How many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today, there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the "wash line." (Laughter) And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.
En die oorblywende vyf miljard, hoe was hulle? Of, meer presies, hoe was die meeste vroue in die wêreld? Want dit bly harde werk vir vroue om te was. Hulle was só: met die hand. Dis ’n harde, tydrowende arbeid, wat hulle vir ure elke week moet doen. En soms moet hulle ook water van vêr af bring om tuis te was, of hulle moet die wasgoed na ’n stroompie vêr weg vat. En hulle wil ’n wasmasjien hê. Hulle wil nie so baie van hulle lewe spandeer om harde werk te doen wat relatiewe lae produktiwiteit het nie. En daar's niks anders aan hulle wens as die van my ouma nie. Kyk, twee generasies terug in Swede -- skep water by die stroom, op die vuur verhit en was soos dit. Hulle wil die wasmasjien hê op presies dieselfde manier.
And the remaining five billion -- how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains the hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home, or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firewood and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
Maar wanneer ek ’n lesing aanbied vir omgewingbewuste studente sê hulle: "Nie almal in die wêreld kan karre en wasmasjiene hê nie." Hoe kan ons dié vrou vertel dat sy nie ’n wasmasjien gaan hê nie? En dan vra ek my studente, oor die laaste twee jaar: "Hoeveel van julle gebruik nie ’n kar nie?" En somige steek hulle hande trots op en sê, "Ek gebruik nie ’n kar nie." En dan vra ek die regtig moeilike vraag: "Hoeveel van julle was julle jeans en beddegoed per hand?" En niemand steek hulle hand op nie. Selfs die gehardes in die groenbeweging gebruik wasmasjiene.
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she isn't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked -- "How many of you don't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines. (Laughter)
(Gelag)
So hoekom gebruik almal dit en hulle dink ander sal dit nie stop nie? Wat is so spesiaal? Ek moes ’n analise doen oor energieverbruik in die wêreld. Hier. Julle sien die sewe miljard mense bo: die lugmense, die wasmense, die gloeilampmense en die vuurmense. Een eenheid soos dié is ’n fossielbrandstof-eenheid: olie, steenkool of gas. Dis meeste van die elektrisiteit en energie in die wêreld. Dis 12 eenhede verbruik in die hele wêreld, en die rykste een miljard gebruik ses daarvan. Helfte van die energie word verbruik deur ’n sewende van die bevolking. En dié wat wasmasjiene het, maar nie ’n huis vol ander masjiene nie, hulle gebruik twee. Hierdie groep gebruik drie, een elk. Hulle't ook elektrisiteit. Daar gebruik hulle nie eens een elk nie. Dit maak 12 van hulle.
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world. Here we are. Look here. You see the seven billion people up there? The air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population. And these ones, who have washing machines but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there, they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.
Maar die hoof bekommernis vir die omgewing-belangstellende studente -- en hulle is reg -- is oor die toekoms. Wat is die tendense? As hulle net verleng, sonder enige gevorderde analise, tot 2050, is daar twee dinge wat energieverbruik kan verhoog. Eerste, bevolkingsgroei. Tweede, ekonomiese groei. Bevolkingsgroei sal hoofsaaklik onder die armste mense plaasvind, want hulle ervaar hoë kindersterftes en hulle het baie kinders per vrou. Met dit kom twee ekstra, maar energieverbruik sal nie baie verander nie.
But the main concern for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use: first, population growth; second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And that will get you two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.
Wat sal gebeur is ekonomiese groei. Die mees welaf hier in die opkomende ekonomieë -- ek noem hulle die Nuwe Ooste -- hulle sal oor die luglyn spring. "Whap!" sê hulle. En hulle sal begin om so baie te gebruik soos die Ou Weste reeds gebruik.
What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them "the New East" -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
En dié mense, hulle wil ’n wasmasjien hê. Soos ek gesê het: daar gaan hulle. Hulle energieverbruik sal verdubbel. En ons hoop dat die arm mense elektriese lig sal kry. Hulle kry twee-kind-families sonder ’n stop in bevolkingsgroei. Maar die totale energieverbruik sal verhoog tot 22 eenhede. En dié 22 eenhede -- steeds gebruik die rykstes die meeste. So wat moet gedoen word? Omdat die risiko, die hoë waarskynlikheid van klimaatsverandering, ’n werklikheid is. Natuurlik moet hulle meer energiedoeltreffend wees. Hulle moet gedrag verander op ’n manier. Hulle moet ook begin groen energie produseer, baie meer groen energie. Maar tot hulle dieselfde energieverbruik per persoon het, moet hulle nie raad gee aan ander -- wat om te doen of nie te doen nie. (Applous) Hier kan ons meer groen energie kry van orals.
(Laughter) And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units -- still, the richest people use most of them. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course, they must be more energy efficient. They must change their behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do. (Laughter) (Applause)
Dis wat ons hoop mag gebeur. Dis ’n werklike toekomsuitdaging. Maar ek verseker julle dat hierdie vrou in die favela in Rio: sy wil ’n wasmasjien hê. Sy's baie gelukkig met haar minister van energie wat elektrisiteit vir almal verskaf het -- so gelukkig dat sy vir haar gestem het. En sy word Dilma Rousseff, die pas gekose president van een van die grootste demokrasieë in die wêreld -- van minister van energie tot president. As jy ’n demokrasie het, sal mense stem vir wasmasjiene. Hulle's mal oor hulle.
Here, we can get more green energy all over. This is what we hope might happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world, moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them!
(Laughter)
En wat is die wonder hiervan? My ma't die wonder van die masjien verduidelik die heel, heel eerste dag. Sy't gesê, "Nou Hans, ons het die wasgoed gelaai. Die masjien sal die werk doen. En nou kan ons biblioteek toe gaan." Want dis die wonder: jy doen die wasgoed, en wat kry jy uit die masjien? Jy kry boeke uit die masjien, kinderboeke. My ma't tyd gehad om vir my te lees. Sy was mal daaroor. Ek kry die "ABC's." Dis waar my beroep as professor begin het, toe my ma tyd gehad het om vir my te lees. Sy't ook boeke vir haarself gekry. Sy't dit reggekry om Engels te studeer en dit te leer as ’n vreemde taal. En sy lees soveel romans, so baie verskillendes. En ons hou baie, baie van die masjien.
And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now, Hans. We have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine. (Laughter)
En wat my ma en ek gesê het, is: "Dankie, industrialisasie. Dankie, staalplettery. Dankie, kragstasie. En dankie, chemiese industrie wat ons tyd gegee het om boeke te lees."
And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you, industrialization. Thank you, steel mill. Thank you, power station. And thank you, chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."
Baie dankie.
Thank you very much.
(Applous)
(Laughter)