I'm going to talk about religion. But it's a broad and very delicate subject, so I have to limit myself. And therefore I will limit myself to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
我今天要談的是宗教 但這是個很廣泛且必須小心處理的議題 所以我必須有個限度 所以我當然會有所節制 而單就宗教和性別之間的關係來談
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
This is a very serious talk. So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. It's when the young couple whisper, "Tonight we are going to make a baby." My talk will be about the impact of religions on the number of babies per woman.
這是個很嚴肅的議題 所以我會盡力以最好的方式來談 當年輕夫妻小聲地說 "我們今天晚上來做個小寶寶" 今天要談的就是宗教層面 對每位婦女生的小寶寶數量的影響
This is indeed important, because everyone understands that there is some sort of limit on how many people we can be on this planet. And there are some people who say that the world population is growing like this -- three billion in 1960, seven billion just last year -- and it will continue to grow because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, and it may continue like this.
這確實很重要 因為我們每個人都知道 那地球能夠承載的人的數量 其實是有某種極限的 然後又有那麼一些人 說世界人口成長就以這樣的方式增加- 1960的30億 到去年的70億 然後會一直繼續增加 因為有那麼一些宗教阻止婦女生少一點小孩 而且應該會繼續如此
To what extent are these people right? When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. What has happened since, and what do the experts predict will happen with the number of children during this century?
這些人能對到哪種程度? 在我出生時,小孩人口的數量是少於10億的 而如今,2000年,已經幾乎快到20億了 到底發生了什麼事 然後在這個世紀全球小孩人口的總數 專家們又預測了些什麼?
This is a quiz. What do you think? Do you think it will decrease to one billion? Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, or will it continue in the same fast rate and be four billion children up there? I will tell you by the end of my speech.
這是個測驗 你們覺得呢? 它會減少到10億嗎? 還是到這個世紀結束前它還會維持在20億? 會以每15年增加一次 還是它會以一樣快的速度繼續下去 然後到了那裡就變成40億? 我會在結束的時候告訴你們答案
But now, what does religion have to do with it? When you want to classify religion, it's more difficult than you think. You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, but that's not detailed enough. So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism into many subgroups, which was too detailed.
但宗教又和這有什麼關係? 當你想把宗教分門別類 它會比你想像的還難 你在維基百科上看到的第一張地圖會是這個 它把世界劃分成阿伯拉罕信仰與東方信仰 但這還不夠詳細 所以繼續看下去之後我們就發現了這張地圖 它把基督,伊斯蘭和佛教信仰細分成 很多小群 這又變得太複雜了
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, and it looks like this. Each country's a bubble. The size is the population -- big China, big India here. And the color now is the majority religion. It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people say that they belong. It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. Islam is the majority religion all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, Southern Europe and through Asia all the way to Indonesia. That's where we find Islamic majority. And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. And that is most countries in America and Europe, many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. The white here are countries which cannot be classified, because one religion does not reach 50 percent or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. So we were careful with that.
所以在Gapminder上我們自己做了一張地圖 就是現在這張圖 每個國家都是一個圓點 大小代表它的人口總量 中國和印度都是大的 然後顏色代表主要的宗教信仰 是在哪裡多於半數的人 說他們屬於的信仰 在印度,中國和其他鄰近亞洲國家都是東方信仰 而伊斯蘭信仰則 遠從大西洋到中東, 南歐然後穿過亞洲再到印尼 都是主要的宗教 那就是伊斯蘭信仰的大多數族群 然後多數的基督教信仰族群 就是這些藍色的國家 也就是大多數在美洲和歐洲的國家 還有很多在非洲和一些在亞洲的國家 白色的部分則是還無法被分類的國家 因為每一個宗教的信仰人口都還沒過半 或是因為對資料的可信度還是一些某些其他的原因 我們其實是很小心在處理的
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. This is in 1960. And now I show the number of babies per woman here: two, four or six -- many babies, few babies. And here the income per person in comparable dollars. The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first before you get few babies. So low income here, high income there.
現在我們來看看更簡單明瞭的圖 這是1960年 我們可以看到每位婦女所生的小孩數量 兩個,四個或六個 很多和很少的小孩 然後這裡是每個人的收入 我們看收入的原因是,很多人都說你必須先變得有錢 才能去少生一些小孩 所以這裡是收入低的,這裡是收入高的
And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. The exception was Japan. Japan here was regarded as an exception. Otherwise it was only Christian countries. But there was also many Christian countries that had six to seven babies per woman. But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. And countries with Islam as the majority religion, all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, irregardless of the income level. And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
而確實在1960年 你必須是個有錢的基督徒才能有較少的小孩 但除了日本 在這裡日本是個例外 否則就只是在基督教信仰的國家才適用 但也有很多基督教信仰的國家 每位婦女平均生了6至7位的小孩 但他們是在拉丁美洲和非洲 然後在大多數信仰是伊斯蘭教的國家 則是,不論他們的收入多寡 幾乎每位婦女都平均生了6到7位小孩 然後除了日本,在其他東方信仰的國家也是如此
Now let's see what has happened in the world. I start the world, and here we go. Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, but the number of babies per woman is falling? Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. And when we enter into this century, you'll find more than half of mankind down here. And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans who live in countries with about two children per woman.
現在我們來看看這一切是如何轉變的 就讓我們從世界的角度來看 1962年,你可以看到他們變得比較有錢 但每位婦女所生的小孩數量卻在下降? 看看中國,他們以相當快的速度在下降 大多數以穆斯林為主的國家,無論收入多寡,也是在下降 而大多數中等收入的基督徒身上也是如此 然後當我們跨入這世紀時 你看到大部分的人類都在這 然後到2010年 我們百分之80的人類都在這 平均每位婦女只生兩位小孩的國家
(Applause)
(掌聲)
It's a quite amazing development which has happened. (Applause) And these are countries from United States here, with $40,000 per capita, France, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, Indonesia, India and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States and the same amount of babies per woman.
這真的是件令人震驚的發展 (掌聲) 然後從這裡是美國 平均每人所得4萬美金 到法國,俄羅斯,伊朗 墨西哥,土耳其,阿爾及利亞 印尼,印度 然後到最後的孟加拉和越南 平均每人所得低於美國的百分之五 然後每位婦女所生的小孩數量是一樣的
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman is surprisingly good in all countries. We get that from the census data. It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
我們這些每位婦女生的小孩數量的統計資料 來源是相當可靠的 我們是從人口普查拿到這些資料 並不是那些可信度相當低的統計資料
So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. It has happened across the world.
所以我們可以推斷出 並不用要變得有錢才能生比較少的小孩 這也是事實上所已經發生的
And then when we look at religions, we can see that the Eastern religions, indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion that has more than three children. Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, you see countries all the way. But there's no major difference. There's no major difference between these religions. There is a difference with income. The countries which have many babies per woman here, they have quite low income. Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. But there are also countries here like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, like Yemen and Afghanistan.
然後當我們再來看宗教信仰 可以發現在那些以東方信仰為主的國家 確實沒有一個國家的 平均每位婦女生的小孩數量超過三個 鑑於那些以伊斯蘭和基督教為主的國家 也是如此 沒有太大的不同 在宗教層面上並沒有太大的不同 只有一個收入多寡的差別 這些平均每位婦女生很多小孩的國家 收入都相當的低 他們大部分都位於非洲的南撒哈拉沙漠區 但這裡也有一些 瓜地馬拉, 巴布新幾內亞 葉門和阿富汗的國家
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts, that they don't have fast population growth. It's the other way around. In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates that have the fastest population growth. Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. These countries have six children per woman. They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. Congo will go from 60 to 120. That's where we have the fast population growth. And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
很多人都認為阿富汗和剛果 都遭受嚴重的軍事衝突 所以人口成長速度並不高 實際上是相反的 在現今的世界 那種死亡率很高的國家 才會有很快的人口成長 因為多生另一個小孩可以補償一個小孩的死去 這些國家平均每位婦女生的小孩數量是六位 而平均每位婦女1至2位的小孩就有死亡的可能 但再過三十年 阿富汗的人口就會從3千萬到6千萬 剛果則會從6千萬到1億2千萬 這就是高度人口成長的國家 然後也有很多人認為這些國家是相當落後蕭條的 其實不是如此
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. I take them backwards here to their independence, when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. Just look what they have done. It's an amazing improvement, from seven children per woman, they've gone all the way down to between four and five. It's a tremendous improvement.
讓我來比較由伊斯蘭教統治的國家-塞內加爾 和一個以基督教統治的國家-迦納 讓我們回到他們獨立的時候 那是在1960年代初 看看他們這一路是如何走來的 實在是件很令人驚訝的改變 從平均每位婦女所生的小孩數量7位 到平均4到5位 這的確是很驚人的改善
So what does it take? Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. You need to have children to survive. You need to get out of the deepest poverty so children are not of importance for work in the family. You need to have access to some family planning. And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
那它所付出的是什麼? 其實我們都知道這些國家需要的是什麼 你需要孩子們存活下來 你需要脫離極度的貧困 所以在家庭中孩子們並不會工作的重要一環 你需要一些家庭計劃的管道 還有那也許就是最重要的第四點因素
But let me illustrate that fourth factor by looking at Qatar. Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- it's a quite amazing development which had happened. Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop in number of babies per woman.
讓我從卡達的例子 來說說那第四點原因 這裡有卡達和孟加拉 如果我回到這些國家獨立的年份 幾乎是在同一年- 1971和1972 這真的是相當令人驚訝的發展 看看孟加拉和卡達 在平均每位婦女生的小孩數量上幾乎是同等量的下降 卻有著這麼大的收入差異
And what is the reason in Qatar? Well I do as I always do. I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. Very interesting. Lots to read. I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, and they say the most important factors are: "Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force." I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. This is a country that indeed has gone through a very, very interesting modernization.
那在卡達又設什麼原因呢? 我一直想要知道 所以我去他們的網頁上找到卡達的官方統計數據 我推薦這個很棒的網頁 我在這裡慢慢研究過 這真的很好玩 不用付任何一毛錢 我就可以發現卡達的社會潮流是如何 這實在很有趣 有很多可以去了解 我發現他們的出生率相當高 也就是平均每位婦女的生產量相當高 這些是在卡達的政府部門服務的專家和學者們 他們說最重要的就是要 "提高第一次結婚時的年齡 讓卡達婦女的教育水平的提升 然後就會有更多的婦女進入職場" 科學和我都再同意也不過了 這的確是一個已經走過一段 非常有趣的現代化時期的國家
So what it is, is these four: Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, women should get education and join the labor force and family planning should be accessible.
所以就是以下這個很重要 小孩只需要存活下來而不需要去工作 婦女應該要接受教育然後進入職場 然後家庭計畫就應該會變得較容易
Now look again at this. The average number of children in the world is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. There are countries up here which are very poor. And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, it's two.
現在再來看看這 目前世界上平均孩童量 是像哥倫比亞一樣是2.4位 這裡也有一些相當窮困的國家 也就是家庭計畫和較高的孩童存活率需要的地方 我極力推薦大家Melinda Gates的上一個演講 然後這裡有很多平均每位婦女生的小孩數量低於二的國家 所以現在我們回到一開始那個小測驗 答案是第二個
We have reached peak child. The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. And the world population will stop growing. The United Nations Population Division has said it will stop growing at 10 billion. But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰 也就是說世界上孩童人口的數量已經不會再增加 我們還是不斷地需要石油 但是我們已經達到小孩人口量的最高峰 所以世界的人口量就會停止成長 聯合國的人口統計部就曾說過 它會在到達100億的時候停下來 但是為什麼會在小孩數量沒有成長的情況下還增加?
Well I will show you here. I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. They are quite useful for educational purposes. Each card box is one billion people. And there are two billion children in the world. There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. These are rounded numbers. Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, almost one between 45 and 60. And then it's my box. This is me: 60-plus. We are here on top.
看一下這裡 我會用這些小框框 在一些教育目的上來說他們是很有用處的 每個小框框代表10 億人口 然後在世界上總共有20億兒童 20億在15到30歲間的年輕人 這些都是圓形的 然後也有10億在30到45歲之間的 接著幾乎10億的45到60歲間的人口 然後這裡是我在的框框 像我一樣超過60歲的都在這 我們在最上面這裡
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up." You can see that it's like three billion missing here. They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born than there were during the last 30 years. So what will happen now is quite straightforward. The old, sadly, we will die. The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. Then the old will die. The rest will grow older and get two billion children. And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
然後接著會發生的就是我們所說的"大填補" 你可以看到這裡就像少了個30億 他們是因為死了而不是消失 但其實他們從來沒有出生過 因為和近30年來比較 1980年以前比較沒那麼多人出生 所以之後會發生什麼事其實是非常明顯的了 難過的是,我們老人一定會死去 而其他的人呢 就慢慢的變老然後會有新一代20億個小孩出現 之後老的人口又一定會死去 其他的就慢慢老去 然後就又出現新一代20億個小孩 之後老的人口又死去 新一代20億個小孩就又會出現
(Applause)
(掌聲)
This is the great fill-up. It's inevitable. And can you see that this increase took place without life getting longer and without adding children?
這是種很棒的"填補" 而且是無法避免的 你可以看到這種增加發生 如果沒有生活得更長、 而無需添加兒童?
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
宗教和每位婦女所生的小孩數量其實沒什麼關係 世界上所有的宗教都是有能力 去維持它們的價值觀同時去適應新的時代
And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. That is needed. But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. Thank you very much. (Applause)
然後我們每個人在這世界上就只會是那100億中的一個 如果那些最貧窮的人脫離貧困 孩子們存活了下來然後他們有能力去規劃家庭 這就是一定需要的 但不可避免地我們人口會比20到30億還多 所以當你在推估討論時 那些我們在未來所需的能源和資源 和所有在這地球上的全人類 你需要預計到個100億 非常感謝你們 (掌聲)