I'm going to talk about religion. But it's a broad and very delicate subject, so I have to limit myself. And therefore I will limit myself to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
Nitaenda kuongelea kuhusu dini. Lakini ni mada pana na nyeti sana, hivyo itabidi nijiwekee mpaka. Na kwahiyo nitajiwekea mpaka kuongelea tu kuhusu uhusiano kati ya dini na kujamiiana.
(Laughter)
(Kicheko)
This is a very serious talk. So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. It's when the young couple whisper, "Tonight we are going to make a baby." My talk will be about the impact of religions on the number of babies per woman.
Haya ni majadiliano yenye uzito sana. Hivyo, nitaongelea juu ya ninachokumbuka kua cha ajabu sana. Ni pale wanandoa vijana walinong'oneza, "Usiku tutaenda kutengeneza mtoto." Maongezi yangu yatahusu athari ya dini kwa idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke.
This is indeed important, because everyone understands that there is some sort of limit on how many people we can be on this planet. And there are some people who say that the world population is growing like this -- three billion in 1960, seven billion just last year -- and it will continue to grow because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, and it may continue like this.
Hii ni muhimu kweli, kwa sababu kila mtu anaelewa kua kuna aina fulani ya mpaka kwa jinsi watu wengi wanaweza kua kwenye hii sayari. Na kuna baadhi ya watu wanaosema kua idadi ya watu duniani imekua kama hivi -- bilioni tatu mwaka 1960, bilioni saba mwaka jana tu -- na itaendelea kukua kwa sababu kuna dini zinazozuia wanawake kuwa na watoto wachache, na inaweza kuendelea hivi.
To what extent are these people right? When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. What has happened since, and what do the experts predict will happen with the number of children during this century?
Ni kwa kiasi gani hawa watu wako sahihi? Nilivyozaliwa kulikua na watoto chini ya bilioni moja duniani, na leo, 2000, kuna karibia bilioni mbili. Nini kimetokea tangu hapo, na nini wataalam wanatabiri kitatokea na idadi ya watoto karne hii?
This is a quiz. What do you think? Do you think it will decrease to one billion? Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, or will it continue in the same fast rate and be four billion children up there? I will tell you by the end of my speech.
Hili ni jaribio. Unafikiri nini? Unafikiri itapungua mpaka bilioni moja? Itabaki sawa na kua bilioni mbili ifikapo mwisho wa karne? Idadi ya watoto itaongezeka kila mwaka hadi miaka 15, au itaendelea na kiwango cha haraka kile kile na kua watoto bilioni nne huko juu? Nitawaambia ifikapo mwisho wa hotuba yangu.
But now, what does religion have to do with it? When you want to classify religion, it's more difficult than you think. You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, but that's not detailed enough. So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism into many subgroups, which was too detailed.
Lakini sasa, dini inahusika vipi? Unapotaka kuainisha dini, ni ngumu kuliko unavyofikiri. Unaenda Wikipedia na ramani ya kwanza unayopata ni hii. Inagawanyisha dunia kwenye dini za Ibrahimu na dini za Mashariki, lakini hio haina undani wa kutosha. Hivyo tukaenda zaidi na kuangalia kwenye Wikipedia, tukapata hii ramani. Lakni hio inaianisha Ukristo, Uislamu na Ubuddha kwenye makundi mengi madogo, ambayo yalikua ya kina sana.
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, and it looks like this. Each country's a bubble. The size is the population -- big China, big India here. And the color now is the majority religion. It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people say that they belong. It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. Islam is the majority religion all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, Southern Europe and through Asia all the way to Indonesia. That's where we find Islamic majority. And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. And that is most countries in America and Europe, many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. The white here are countries which cannot be classified, because one religion does not reach 50 percent or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. So we were careful with that.
Kwa hiyo pale Gapminder tulitengeneza ramani yetu, Na inaonekana hivi. Kila nchi ni puto. Ukubwa ni idadi ya watu -- China kubwa, India kubwa hapa. Na rangi sasa ni dini yenye wengi. Ni dini ambayo watu zaidi ya asilimia 50 wanasema wanahusika. Ni dini ya Mashariki huko India na China na nchi jirani za Asia. Uislamu ni dini ya wingi njia yote kutoka Bahari ya Atlantiki kupitia Mashariki ya Kati, Ulaya ya Kusini na kupitia Asia njia yote mpaka Indonesia. Hapo ndipo tunapata Waislamu wengi. Na dini nyingi za Kikristo, tunaona kwenye hizi nchi. Ni za bluu. Na hizo ni nchi nyingi za Marekani na Ulaya, nchi nyingi za Afrika na chache za Asia. Nyeupe hapa ni nchi ambazo haziwezi kuwa kuainishwa, kwa sababu dini moja haifiki asilimia 50 au kuna shaka kuhusu takwimu au sababu yoyote nyingine. Hivyo tulikua makini na hilo.
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. This is in 1960. And now I show the number of babies per woman here: two, four or six -- many babies, few babies. And here the income per person in comparable dollars. The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first before you get few babies. So low income here, high income there.
Hivyo vumilia urahisi wetu sasa nikiwapeleka kwenye hii picha. Hii ni 1960. Na sasa naonyesha idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke hapa: mbili, nne au sita -- watoto wengi, watoto wachache. Na hapa mapato kwa mtu ikilinganishwa dola. Sababu ya hio ni kua watu wengi wanasema unapaswa kua tajiri kwanza kabla hujapata watoto wachache. Hivyo mapato ya chini hapa, mapato ya juu pale.
And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. The exception was Japan. Japan here was regarded as an exception. Otherwise it was only Christian countries. But there was also many Christian countries that had six to seven babies per woman. But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. And countries with Islam as the majority religion, all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, irregardless of the income level. And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
Na kweli mwaka 1960, ulitakiwa uwe Mkristo tajiri kuwa na watoto wachache. Ilikua isipokua Japan. Japan hapa ilionekana ya kipekee. Vinginevyo ni nchi za Kikristo tu. Lakini pia kulikua na nchi nyingi za Kikristo zilizokua na watoto sita mpaka saba kwa mwanamke. Lakini zilikua Amerika ya Kusini au zilikua Afrika. Na nchi zenye Kiislamu kama dini kuu, zote zilikua na karibia watoto sita mpaka saba kwa mwanamke, bila kujali kiwango cha mapato. Na dini zote za mashariki isipokua Japan zilikua na kiwango sawa.
Now let's see what has happened in the world. I start the world, and here we go. Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, but the number of babies per woman is falling? Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. And when we enter into this century, you'll find more than half of mankind down here. And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans who live in countries with about two children per woman.
Sasa tuone kilichotokea kwenye dunia. Ninaanzisha dunia, na tunaenda hivi. Sasa 1962 -- unaweza kuona wanakua tajiri zaidi, lakini idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke inashuka? Angalia China. Wanashuka kwa haraka sana. Na nchi zote zenye Wasilamu wengi katika mapato zinakuja chini, kama nchi zenye Wakristo wengi kwenye eneo lenye mapato ya kati. Na tunapoingia kwenye karne hii, utakuta zaidi ya nusu ya watu huku chini. Na ifikapo 2010, tuko kwa kweli asilimia 80 ya watu wanaoishi kwenye nchi zenye kama watoto wawili kwa mwanamke.
(Applause)
(Makofi)
It's a quite amazing development which has happened. (Applause) And these are countries from United States here, with $40,000 per capita, France, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, Indonesia, India and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States and the same amount of babies per woman.
Ni maendeleo ya kushangaza kabisa ambayo yametokea. (Makofi) Na hizi ni nchi za Marekani hapa, zenye $40,000 kwa kila mtu, Ufaransa, Urusi, Uajemi, Mexico, Uturuki, Algeria, Indonesia, India na moja kwa moja mpaka Bangladesh na Vietnam, ambazo zinazo chini ya asilimia tano ya mapato kwa mtu wa Marekani na kiasi sawa cha watoto kwa mwanamke.
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman is surprisingly good in all countries. We get that from the census data. It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
Naweza kukuambia kua takwimu ya idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke ina uzuri wa kushangaza nchi zote. Tunapata hizo kutoka takwimu za sensa. Sio moja ya hizi takwimu zilizo na mashaka sana.
So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. It has happened across the world.
Hivyo tunachohitimisha ni hauhitaji kua tajiri kuwa na watoto wachache. Imetokea katika dunia.
And then when we look at religions, we can see that the Eastern religions, indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion that has more than three children. Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, you see countries all the way. But there's no major difference. There's no major difference between these religions. There is a difference with income. The countries which have many babies per woman here, they have quite low income. Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. But there are also countries here like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, like Yemen and Afghanistan.
Na kisha tunapoangalia dini. tunaona kua dini za mashariki, kwa kweli hakuna nchi hata moja yenye wingi wa hio dini ambayo ina zaidi ya watoto watatu. Ambapo na Uislamu kama dini ya wingi na Ukristo, unaona nchi njia yote. Lakini hakuna tofauti kubwa. Hakuna tofauti kubwa kati ya hizi dini. Kuna tofauti kwenye mapato. Nchi ambazo zina watoto wengi kwa mwanamke hapa, zina mapato ya chini kweli. Nyingi zao ziko Afrika kusini mwa Sahara. Lakini pia kuna nchi huku kama Guatemala, kama Papua New Guinea, kama Yemen na Afghanistan.
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts, that they don't have fast population growth. It's the other way around. In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates that have the fastest population growth. Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. These countries have six children per woman. They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. Congo will go from 60 to 120. That's where we have the fast population growth. And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
Wengi hufikiri kua Afghanistan hapa na Kongo, ambazo zimeteseka na migogoro mikali, kua hazina ukuaji wa idadi ya watu wa haraka. Ni kinyume chake. Kwenye dunia leo, ni nchi zenye kiwango cha juu cha vifo ambazo zina ukuaji wa haraka wa idadi ya watu. Kwa sababu kifo cha mtoto kimefidiwa na mtoto mmoja zaidi. Hizi nchi zina watoto sita kwa mwanake. Zina kiwango cha vifo cha kusikitisha cha mtoto mmoja mpaka wawili kwa mwanamke. Lakini miaka 30 kutoka sasa, Afghanistan inatoka milioni 30 mpaka milioni 60. Kongo inaenda kutoka 60 mpaka 120. Hapo ndipo tunapata ukuaji wa idadi ya watu. Na wengi wanafikiri kua hizi nchi ziko palepale, lakini hazipo.
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. I take them backwards here to their independence, when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. Just look what they have done. It's an amazing improvement, from seven children per woman, they've gone all the way down to between four and five. It's a tremendous improvement.
Ngoja nilinganishe Senegal, nchi iliotawaliwa na Waislamu, na nchi iliotawaliwa na Wakristo, Ghana. Nazipeleka nyuma hapa kwenye uhuru wao, ambapo walikua huku juu mwanzoni mwa miaka ya 1960. Angalia tu walichokifanya. Ni maendeleo ya kushangaza, kutoka watoto saba kwa mwanake, wameenda moja kwa moja chini mpaka wanne na watano. Ni maendeleo makubwa.
So what does it take? Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. You need to have children to survive. You need to get out of the deepest poverty so children are not of importance for work in the family. You need to have access to some family planning. And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
Hivyo inachukua nini? Basi tunajua vizuri kabisa kinachohitajika kwenye hizi nchi. Unahitaji kua na watoto kuishi. Unahitaji kutoka nje ya umasikini uliokithiri hivyo watoto sio wa muhimu kwa kazi kwenye familia. Unahitaji kua na upatikanaji wa baadhi ya uzazi wa mpango. Na unahitaji sababu ya nne, ambayo pengine ni sababu muhimu kuliko zote.
But let me illustrate that fourth factor by looking at Qatar. Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- it's a quite amazing development which had happened. Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop in number of babies per woman.
Lakini ngoja nionyeshe hio sababu ya nne kwa kuangalia Qatar. Hapa tuna Qatar leo, na pale tuna Bangladesh leo. Kama nikizipeleka hizi nchi nyuma kwenye miaka ya uhuru wao, ambazo ni karibia mwaka mmoja -- '71, '72 -- ni maendeleo ya kushangaza kabisa ambayo yalitokea. Angalia Bangladesh na Qatar. Zenye mapato yanayotofautiana kabisa, ni karibia muanguko sawa kwenye idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke.
And what is the reason in Qatar? Well I do as I always do. I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. Very interesting. Lots to read. I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, and they say the most important factors are: "Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force." I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. This is a country that indeed has gone through a very, very interesting modernization.
Na nini sababu ya Qatar? Basi kama kawaida yangu. Nilienda kwenye mamlaka ya takwimu ya Qatar, kwenye tovuti yao -- Ni tovuti nzuri sana. Ninaipendekeza -- na nikaangalia juu -- ndio, ni burudani nyingi hapa -- na zinatolewa bure, nilikuta mwenendo wa kijamii wa Qatar. Ya kuvutia sana. Vingi vya kusoma. Nilikuta nguvu ya uzazi, na nikaangalia jumla ya kiwango cha uzazi kwa mwanamke. Hawa ni wasomi na wataalamu kwenye wakala wa serikali wa Qatar, na wakasema sababu za muhimu zaidi ni: "Ongezeko la umri kwenye ndoa ya kwanza, ongezeko la kiwango cha elimu cha mwanamke wa Qatar na wanawake zaidi kujumuika kwenye nguvukazi." Nisingekubali zaidi. Sayansi isingekubali zaidi. Hii ni nchi ambayo kweli imepitia utamaduni wa kushangaza sana sana.
So what it is, is these four: Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, women should get education and join the labor force and family planning should be accessible.
Hivyo kilichopo, ni hizi nne: Watoto wanatakiwa waishi, watoto hawatakiwi kuhitajika kwa kazi, wanawake wanatakiwa kupata elimu na kujiunga na nguvukazi na uzazi wa mpango unatakiwa kupatikana.
Now look again at this. The average number of children in the world is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. There are countries up here which are very poor. And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, it's two.
Sasa angalia tena hii. Wastani ya idadi ya watoto duniani ni kama ya Colombia -- ni 2.4 leo. Kuna nchi huku juu amabazo ni maskini sana. Na ndipo uzazi wa mpango, maisha bora ya watoto zinahitajika. Nina pendekeza kwa nguvu mazungumzo ya TED ya mwisho ya Melinda Gates. Na hapa, chini, kuna nchi nyingi ambazo zina chini ya watoto wawili kwa mwanamke. Hivyo nikirudi sasa kuwapa jibu la jaribio, ni mbili.
We have reached peak child. The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. And the world population will stop growing. The United Nations Population Division has said it will stop growing at 10 billion. But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
Tumefikia kilele mtoto. Idadi ya watoto haikui tena zaidi duniani. Bado tunajadili kilele mafuta, lakini ni dhahiri tumefika kilele mtoto. Idadi ya watu duniani itaacha kukua. Umoja wa Mataifa kitengo cha Wakazi kilisema kitaacha kukua kwenye bilioni 10. Lakini kwanini tunaongezeka kama idadi ya watoto haiongezeki?
Well I will show you here. I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. They are quite useful for educational purposes. Each card box is one billion people. And there are two billion children in the world. There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. These are rounded numbers. Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, almost one between 45 and 60. And then it's my box. This is me: 60-plus. We are here on top.
Basi nitawaonyesha hapa. Nitatumia hizi sanduku za kadi ambazo madaftari yenu yalikuja. Ni muhimu sana kwa madhumuni ya elimu. Kila kisanduku ni watu bilioni moja. Na kuna watoto bilioni mbili duniani. Kuna vijana bilioni mbili kati ya 15 na 30. Hizi ni namba zilizokadiriwa. Halafu kuna bilioni moja kati ya 30 na 45, karibia moja kati ya 45 na 60. na tena kuna sanduku langu. Huyu ni mimi: 60-na zaidi. Tupo hapa juu.
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up." You can see that it's like three billion missing here. They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born than there were during the last 30 years. So what will happen now is quite straightforward. The old, sadly, we will die. The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. Then the old will die. The rest will grow older and get two billion children. And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
Hivyo kitakachotokea sasa hivi ni tunachoita "ujazo mkubwa." Utaona kua kuna kama bilioni tatu inayokosekana hapa. Haionekani kwa sababu wamekufa; hawakuwahi kuzaliwa. Kwa sababu kabla ya 1980, kulikua na watu wachache zaidi waliozaliwa kuliko waliopo wakati wa miaka 30 iliopita. Hivyo kitakachotokea sasa ni wazi sana. Wazee, kwa sikitiko, tutakufa. Nyie wengine, mtakua wakubwa na mtapata watoto bilioni mbili. Kisha wazee watakufa. Wengine watakua wakubwa na kupata watoto bilioni mbili. Na tena wazee watakufa na mtapata watoto bilioni mbili.
(Applause)
(Makofi)
This is the great fill-up. It's inevitable. And can you see that this increase took place without life getting longer and without adding children?
Hii ni ujazo mkubwa. Haiepukiki. Na unaona kua hili ongezeko lilitokea bila maisha kua marefu na bila kuongeza watoto?
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
Dini inahusika kidogo sana kwenye idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke. Dini zote duniani zina uwezo wa kikamilifu kudumisha thamani zao na kukabiliana na hii dunia mpya.
And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. That is needed. But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. Thank you very much. (Applause)
Na tutakua tu bilioni 10 kwenye dunia hii, kama watu maskini watatoka kwenye umaskini, watoto wao wataishi, watakua na upatikanaji wa uzazi wa mpango. Hio inahitajika. Lakini haiepukiki kua tutakua bilioni mbili mpaka tatu zaidi. Hivyo unavyojadili na unavyopanga kwa rasilimali na nishati zinazohitajika baadae, kwa wanadamu kwenye hii sayari, unatakiwa upange kwa bilioni 10 Asante sana. (Makofi)