I'm going to talk about religion. But it's a broad and very delicate subject, so I have to limit myself. And therefore I will limit myself to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
Ma räägin teile täna religioonist, kuid see on lai ja väga tundlik teema seega pean end piirama. Ja seega räägin teile vaid religiooni ja seksuaalsuse vahelistest seostest.
(Laughter)
(Naer)
This is a very serious talk. So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. It's when the young couple whisper, "Tonight we are going to make a baby." My talk will be about the impact of religions on the number of babies per woman.
See tuleb tõsine ettkanne. Sestap räägin teile vaid sellest, mida mäletan imeliseimana. Kui noor paar sosistab: „Täna öösel teeme lapse.“ Minu ettekanne kõneleb religiooni mõjust laste arvule naise kohta.
This is indeed important, because everyone understands that there is some sort of limit on how many people we can be on this planet. And there are some people who say that the world population is growing like this -- three billion in 1960, seven billion just last year -- and it will continue to grow because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, and it may continue like this.
See on tõepoolest oluline, kuna kõik mõistavad, et sellel on piir, mitmekesi me sellele planeedile mahume. Osa inimesi väidab, et maailma rahvaarv kasvab – kolm miljardit 1960. aastal, seitse miljardit eelmisel aastal – ja jätkab kasvamist, sest osa religioone keelab naistel saada vähe lapsi, ja rahvaarv võibki jääda niimoodi kasvama.
To what extent are these people right? When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. What has happened since, and what do the experts predict will happen with the number of children during this century?
Kuivõrd on nendel inimestel õigus? Kui mina sündisin, oli maailmas alla miljardi lapse, täna, 2000. aastal on lapsi peaaegu kaks miljardit. Mis on vahepeal juhtunud ja mis juhtub asjatundjate arvates laste arvuga sel sajandil?
This is a quiz. What do you think? Do you think it will decrease to one billion? Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, or will it continue in the same fast rate and be four billion children up there? I will tell you by the end of my speech.
See on viktoriin. Mida teie arvate? Kas teie arvates väheneb see taas ühe miljardini? Jääb samaks ja on sajandi lõpuks kaks miljardit? Kas kuni 15-aastaste laste arv suureneb igal aastal või jätkub sama kiire kasv ja sajandi lõpuks on maailmas neli miljardit last? Ma avaldan teile vastuse oma ettekande lõpus.
But now, what does religion have to do with it? When you want to classify religion, it's more difficult than you think. You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, but that's not detailed enough. So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism into many subgroups, which was too detailed.
Aga nüüd, kuidas on religioon kõige sellega seotud? Religiooni on arvatust keerulisem klassifitseerida. Te kasutate Vikipeediat ja esimene kaart, mille te leiate, on see. See jagab maailma aabrahamlikeks usunditeks ja idamaiseks usundiks, kuid see pole piisavalt täpne. Sukeldusime Vikipeedias sügavamale ja leidsime selle kaardi. Kuid see jagab kristluse, islami ja budismi paljudeks alarühmadeks, mis oli jällegi liiga detailne.
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, and it looks like this. Each country's a bubble. The size is the population -- big China, big India here. And the color now is the majority religion. It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people say that they belong. It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. Islam is the majority religion all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, Southern Europe and through Asia all the way to Indonesia. That's where we find Islamic majority. And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. And that is most countries in America and Europe, many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. The white here are countries which cannot be classified, because one religion does not reach 50 percent or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. So we were careful with that.
Seetõttu koostasime ise Gapminderis kaardi, mis näeb välja selline. Iga riik on tähistatud mulliga. Suurus viitab rahvaarvule – siin on suur Hiina ja suur India. Värv on valitsev usund. Ehk usund, millesse väidab end kuuluvat üle 50% inimestest. Indias, Hiinas ja nende naaberriikides Aasias on valitsev idamaine religioon. Islam on valitsev religioon Alates Atlandi ookeanist, läbi Lähis-Ida, Lõuna-Euroopa ja Aasia, kuni Indoneesiani välja. Sealt leiame islamiusuliste enamuse. Kristlus on aga nende riikide valitsev religion. Need on sinised. Nende sekka kuuluvad enamik Ameerika ja Euroopa riikidest, paljud riigid Aafrikas ja mõned Aasias. Valgega tähistatud riike ei saa klassifitseerida. Neis riikides kas ei ületa ükski usund 50% künnist, kaheldakse teada olevates andmetes või siis on mõni muu põhjus. Seega me olime nendega ettevaatlikud.
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. This is in 1960. And now I show the number of babies per woman here: two, four or six -- many babies, few babies. And here the income per person in comparable dollars. The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first before you get few babies. So low income here, high income there.
Varuge nüüd kannatust, et ma saaksin tutvustada teile seda pilti. Aasta on 1960. Näitan teile nüüd laste arvu naise kohta: kaks, neli või kuus – palju lapsi, vähe lapsi. Ja siin on sissetulek inimese kohta võrreldavates dollarites. Näitajad on tingitud inimeste arusaamast, et esmalt peab koguma rikkust ja alles seejärel saama lapsed. Seega väike sissetulek siin, suur sissetulek seal.
And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. The exception was Japan. Japan here was regarded as an exception. Otherwise it was only Christian countries. But there was also many Christian countries that had six to seven babies per woman. But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. And countries with Islam as the majority religion, all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, irregardless of the income level. And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
Ja tõepoolest 1960ndatel said vaid rikkad kristlased vähe lapsi. Erand oli Jaapan. Ja Jaapanit peetigi erandlikuks. Muidu kehtis see kristlikes riikides. Samas oli ka palju kristlikke riike, kus naise kohta sündis kuus-seitse last. Kuid need olid Ladina-Ameerika või Aafrika riigid. Peaaegu kõigis neis riikides, kus valdavaks religiooniks oli islam, sündis naise kohta kuus-seitse last, sõltumata perekonna sissetulekust. Laste arv oli sarnane ka idamaistes religioonides, välja arvatud Jaapanis.
Now let's see what has happened in the world. I start the world, and here we go. Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, but the number of babies per woman is falling? Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. And when we enter into this century, you'll find more than half of mankind down here. And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans who live in countries with about two children per woman.
Vaatame nüüd, mis on vahepeal toimunud. Panen maailma käima ja läheb lahti. 1962 – kas näete, et inimesed saavad veidi rikkamaks, aga laste arv naise kohta väheneb? Vaadake Hiinat. Laste arv väheneb kiirelt. Laste arv väheneb ka kõigis islami enamusega riikides, nagu kristliku enamusega riikideski keskmise sissetulekuga inimeste puhul. Sellesse sajandisse jõudes leiate siit alt poolt enamuse inimkonnast. 2010. aastal elab 80% inimestest riikides, kus on naise kohta umbes kaks last.
(Applause)
(Aplaus)
It's a quite amazing development which has happened. (Applause) And these are countries from United States here, with $40,000 per capita, France, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, Indonesia, India and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States and the same amount of babies per woman.
Aset on leidnud üsna hämmastav areng. (Aplaus) Siin on Ameerika Ühendriigid – sissetulek inimese kohta 40 000 dollarit – Prantsusmaa, Venemaa, Iraan, Mehhiko, Türgi, Alžeeria, Indoneesia, India ja ka Bangladesh ja Vietnam, kus on sissetulek ühe inimese kohta vähem kui 5% ameeriklaste samast näitajast, kuid naise kohta on lapsi sama palju.
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman is surprisingly good in all countries. We get that from the census data. It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
Võin teile öelda, et andmed, mis näitavad laste arvu naise kohta, on kõikides riikides üllatavalt head. Kasutame rahvaloenduste andmeid, mitte kaheldava väärtusega statistikat.
So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. It has happened across the world.
Võime seega järeldada: selleks, et saada vähe lapsi, ei pea olema rikas. See on juhtunud kogu maailmas.
And then when we look at religions, we can see that the Eastern religions, indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion that has more than three children. Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, you see countries all the way. But there's no major difference. There's no major difference between these religions. There is a difference with income. The countries which have many babies per woman here, they have quite low income. Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. But there are also countries here like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, like Yemen and Afghanistan.
Kui me vaatame religioone, näeme, et üheski riigis, kus on valitsev idamaine usund, ei sünni naise kohta üle kolme lapse. Riikides, kus on valitsev usund islam või kristlus, on lapsi naise kohta sageli rohkem. Siiski ei ole see erinevus suur. Usundite vahel suurt erinevust pole. Erinevus on seotud sissetulekuga. Nendes riikides, kus on naise kohta palju lapsi, on sissetulekud üsna väiksed. Enamus neist asuvad Sahara-taguses Aafrikas. Kuid siin on ka riigid nagu Guatemala, Paapua Uus-Guinea, Jeemen ja Afganistan.
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts, that they don't have fast population growth. It's the other way around. In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates that have the fastest population growth. Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. These countries have six children per woman. They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. Congo will go from 60 to 120. That's where we have the fast population growth. And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
Paljud arvavad, et Afganistanis ja Kongos, mida on räsinud tõsised konfliktid, ei kasva rahvaarv kiiresti. Kuid see on vastupidi. Tänapäeval kasvab rahvaarv kõige kiiremini suurima suremusega riikides, kuna lapse surma kompenseeritakse uue lapsega. Nendes riikides on naise kohta kuus last. Kahjuks neis riikides ka sureb naise kohta üks-kaks last. Kuid 30 aasta pärast on Afganistani rahvaarv 30 miljoni asemel 60 miljonit ning Kongos 60 miljoni asemel 120 miljonit. Neis riikides on rahvaarvu kasv suur. Paljud arvavad, et need on stagneerunud riigid, aga see ei ole nii.
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. I take them backwards here to their independence, when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. Just look what they have done. It's an amazing improvement, from seven children per woman, they've gone all the way down to between four and five. It's a tremendous improvement.
Võrdleme Senegali – kus valitsev usund on islam – Ghanaga, mille valitsev usund on kristlus. Vaatame aega, mil nad iseseisvusid. 1960ndate alguses olid nad siin üleval. Vaadake, mida nad on teinud. See on hämmastav areng, seitsmest lapsest naise kohta on nüüdseks saanud neli-viis last naise kohta. Vapustav edasiminek.
So what does it take? Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. You need to have children to survive. You need to get out of the deepest poverty so children are not of importance for work in the family. You need to have access to some family planning. And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
Niisiis mida on selleks vaja? Teame üsna hästi, mida on nendes riikides vaja. Ellujäämiseks on vaja lapsi. Selleks, et perekonnad ei vajaks lapsi töötamiseks, peab välja saama sügavamast vaesusest. Inimestel peab olema võimalus pereplaneerimiseks. Vaja on ka neljandat tegurit, mis on võib-olla ka kõige olulisem.
But let me illustrate that fourth factor by looking at Qatar. Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- it's a quite amazing development which had happened. Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop in number of babies per woman.
Selgitan seda neljandat tegurit, vaadates Katari. Siin on praegu Katar ja siin Bangladesh. Kui vaadata neid riike iseseisvumise ajal, mis toimus enam-vähem samal aastal – 1971, 1972 – siis näeme, et toimunud on üsna hämmastav areng. Vaadake Bangladeshi ja Katari. Sissetulek on nii erinev, aga naise kohta sündinud beebide arv on samamoodi vähenenud.
And what is the reason in Qatar? Well I do as I always do. I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. Very interesting. Lots to read. I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, and they say the most important factors are: "Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force." I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. This is a country that indeed has gone through a very, very interesting modernization.
Mis on Kataris selle põhjus? Teen nii nagu alati. Lähen Katari statistikaameti kodulehele – see on väga hea koduleht, soovitan – ning vaatan järele – oi, siin saab nalja – ja leidsin Katari ühiskondlikud suundumused. Väga huvitav. Lugeda on palju. Leidsin sündimuse ja vaatasin kogusündimust naise kohta. Katari teadlased ja valitsuses töötavad asjatundjad väidavad, et kõige olulisemad tegurid on: „Hilisem esimene abielu, Katari naiste haridustaseme paranemine ja naiste suurem osatähtsus tööjõus.“ Olen vägagi nõus. Teadus on vägagi nõus. See riik on tõepoolest läbinud väga huvitava kaasajastamise.
So what it is, is these four: Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, women should get education and join the labor force and family planning should be accessible.
Asi seisneb neis neljas faktoris: lapsed peaksid ellu jääma, nende eesmärk ei tohiks olla töö, naised peaksid saama hariduse ja liituma tööjõuga ning peret peaks planeerima.
Now look again at this. The average number of children in the world is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. There are countries up here which are very poor. And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, it's two.
Vaadake nüüd uuesti seda. Praegu on maailmas lapsi keskmiselt nagu Kolumbias – 2,4 last naise kohta. Siin üleval on väga vaesed riigid. Siin on vaja pereplaneerimist ja seda, et rohkem lapsi jääks ellu. Soovitan väga vaadata Melinda Gatesi viimast TED-il peetud kõnet. Ja siin all on palju riike, kus on naise kohta alla kahe lapse. Kui nüüd minna viktoriini juurde tagasi, võin öelda, et vastus on kaks.
We have reached peak child. The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. And the world population will stop growing. The United Nations Population Division has said it will stop growing at 10 billion. But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
Oleme jõudnud laste sündimuse tippaega. Maailmas enam laste arv ei suurene. Kahtleme, kas käes on naftatootmistipp, kuid laste sündimise tippaeg on kindlasti käes. Maailma rahvastik tulevikus enam ei suurene. ÜRO rahvastiku osakonna väitel lakkab rahvaarv suurenemast 10 miljardi juures. Kuid miks rahvaarv suureneb, kui laste arv ei suurene?
Well I will show you here. I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. They are quite useful for educational purposes. Each card box is one billion people. And there are two billion children in the world. There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. These are rounded numbers. Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, almost one between 45 and 60. And then it's my box. This is me: 60-plus. We are here on top.
Näitan teile selle abil. Kasutan neid pappkarpe, milles olid teie märkmikud. Need on hariduslikel eesmärkidel üsna kasulikud. Iga pappkarp esindab miljardit inimest. Maailmas on kaks miljardit last. Kaks miljardit noort inimest vanuses 15–30. Need on ümardatud arvud. Miljard inimest on vanuses 30–45, peaaegu miljard vanuses 45–60. Ja siis tuleb minu karp. Siin on minu rühm: üle 60-aastased. Meie oleme siin üleval.
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up." You can see that it's like three billion missing here. They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born than there were during the last 30 years. So what will happen now is quite straightforward. The old, sadly, we will die. The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. Then the old will die. The rest will grow older and get two billion children. And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
Nüüd juhtub see, mida me nimetame „suureks täitmiseks“. Näete, et kolm miljardit oleks justkui puudu. Nad ei puudu mitte seetõttu, et nad on surnud, vaid nad pole veel sündinudki. Enne 1980. aastat sündis palju vähem inimesi kui viimase 30 aasta jooksul. Nüüd toimuma hakkav on üsna lihtne. Kahjuks meie, vanad, sureme. Teie, ülejäänud, saate vanemaks ja saate kaks miljardit last. Siis surevad vanad. Ülejäänud saavad vanemaks ja saavad kaks miljardit last. Siis surevad taas vanad ja teie saate kaks miljardit last.
(Applause)
(Aplaus)
This is the great fill-up. It's inevitable. And can you see that this increase took place without life getting longer and without adding children?
See on suur täitmine. See on vältimatu. Kas näete, et see kasv toimus ilma, et eluiga pikeneks ja lapsi lisanduks?
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
Usul on naise kohta sündivate lastega väga vähe pistmist. Kõikidel maailma usunditel on võime säilitada oma väärtushinnangud ja kohanduda uue maailmaga.
And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. That is needed. But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. Thank you very much. (Applause)
Meid saab maailmas olema kõigest 10 miljardit, kui vaeseimad inimesed saavad rikkamaks, jäävad nende lapsed ellu ja nad saavad tegeleda pereplaneerimisega. Seda on vaja. Kuid vältimatu on see, et inimesi saab olema paar-kolm miljardit rohkem. Seega kui arutlete selle üle, kui palju on tulevikuks vaja energia ja muid varusid, et rahuldada kõigi inimeste vajadusi, tuleb planeerida 10 miljardile inimesele. Suur tänu teile. (Aplaus)