Govoriću o religiji. Ali to je široka i veoma osjetljiva tema, tako da se moram ograničiti. Stoga ću se ograničiti da govorim samo o vezi između religije i seksualnosti.
I'm going to talk about religion. But it's a broad and very delicate subject, so I have to limit myself. And therefore I will limit myself to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
(Smijeh)
(Laughter)
Ovo je veoma ozbiljan govor. Tako da ću govoriti o onome čega se sjećam kao najčudesnijeg. Kada mladi par šapuće, "Noćas ćemo praviti bebu." Moj govor će biti o utjecaju religija na broj beba u odnosu na broj žena.
This is a very serious talk. So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. It's when the young couple whisper, "Tonight we are going to make a baby." My talk will be about the impact of religions on the number of babies per woman.
To je zaista važno, jer svi razumiju da postoji neka vrsta limita koliko ljudi može živjeti na ovoj planeti. I postoje ljudi koji kažu da će populacija rasti ovako -- tri miljarde 1960., sedam milijardi upravo prošle godine -- i da će nastaviti da raste jer postoje religije koje ženama ne dozvoljavaju da imaju manje djece, i to može da se nastavi ovako.
This is indeed important, because everyone understands that there is some sort of limit on how many people we can be on this planet. And there are some people who say that the world population is growing like this -- three billion in 1960, seven billion just last year -- and it will continue to grow because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, and it may continue like this.
Koliko su ovi ljudi u pravu? Kada sam ja rođen bilo je manje od jedne milijarde djece u svijetu i danas, 2000., ima ih skoro dvije milijarde. Šta se od tada desilo, i šta eksperti predviđaju da će se desiti sa brojem djece tokom ovog stoljeća?
To what extent are these people right? When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. What has happened since, and what do the experts predict will happen with the number of children during this century?
Ovo je kviz. Šta vi mislite? Da li mislite da će se broj smanjiti na jednu milijardu? Da li će ostati isti i biti dvije milijarde do kraja vijeka? Hoće li se broj djece povećavati svake godine narednih15 godina ili će nastaviti rasti po istoj brzoj stopi i dostići četiri milijarde, ovdje? Do kraja mog govora reći ću vam odgovor.
This is a quiz. What do you think? Do you think it will decrease to one billion? Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, or will it continue in the same fast rate and be four billion children up there? I will tell you by the end of my speech.
Ali sada, kakve veze ima religija s tim? Kada želite napraviti klasifikaciju religija, to je teže nego što mislite. Odete na Wikipediju i prva mapa koju vidite je ova. Ona dijeli svijet na abrahamične i istočne religije, ali to nije dovoljno detaljno. Zato smo nastavili tražiti na Wikipediji, našli smo ovu mapu. Ali ona dalje dijeli Kršćanstvo, Islam i Budizam u mnogo podgrupa, koje su suviše detaljne.
But now, what does religion have to do with it? When you want to classify religion, it's more difficult than you think. You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, but that's not detailed enough. So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism into many subgroups, which was too detailed.
Zato smo na Gapminderu napravili našu mapu, i ona izgleda ovako. Svaka zemlja je predstavljena mjehurićem. Veličina predstavlja populaciju - velika Kina, velika Indija ovdje. I boja je većinska religija. To je religija za koju više od 50 procenata populacije kaže da pripada. To su istočne religije u Indiji i Kini i susjednim azijskim zemljama. Islam je većinska religija od Atlanskog okeana preko Bliskog istoka, južne Evrope i kroz Aziju sve do Indonezije. Tu nalazimo islamsku većinu. I kršćanska religija većine, vidimo je u ovim zemljama. One su plave. I to je većina zemalja u Americi i Evropi, mnoge zemlje u Africi i poneka u Aziji. Bijelom bojom su predstavljene zemlje koje se ne mogu klasifikovati, jer jedna religija nema većinu od preko 5o procenata ili ako postoji sumnja u podatke ili neki drugi razlog. Tako da smo bili pažljivi sa tim.
Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, and it looks like this. Each country's a bubble. The size is the population -- big China, big India here. And the color now is the majority religion. It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people say that they belong. It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. Islam is the majority religion all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, Southern Europe and through Asia all the way to Indonesia. That's where we find Islamic majority. And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. And that is most countries in America and Europe, many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. The white here are countries which cannot be classified, because one religion does not reach 50 percent or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. So we were careful with that.
Zato pratite naše pojednostavljenje i provešću vas kroz ovaj prikaz. Ovo je 1960. Sada pokazujem broj beba po svakoj ženi ovdje: dva, četiri ili šest -- mnogo beba, manje beba. I ovdje je prihod po osobi u usporedivim dolarima. Razlog za to je to što mnogo ljudi kaže da se prvo treba obogatiti prije nego što se dobiju djeca. Tako da je niži prihod ovdje, visoki prihodi ovdje.
So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. This is in 1960. And now I show the number of babies per woman here: two, four or six -- many babies, few babies. And here the income per person in comparable dollars. The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first before you get few babies. So low income here, high income there.
I zaista u 1960., trebalo je da budete bogati kršćanin da biste imali manje beba. Izuzetak je bio Japan. Japan ovdje posmatramo kao izuzetak. Inače to je bilo tako samo u krćanskim zemljama. Ali bilo je mnogo kršćanskih zemalja u kojima je bilo šest ili sedam beba po ženi. One su ipak, bile su Latinskoj Americi ili u Africi. I zemlje u kojima je Islam većinska religija, svaka od njih je imala šestoro do sedmoro djece po ženi, bez obzira na nivo prihoda. Takođe i sve istočnjačke religije, izuzev Japana, imale su isti nivo.
And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. The exception was Japan. Japan here was regarded as an exception. Otherwise it was only Christian countries. But there was also many Christian countries that had six to seven babies per woman. But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. And countries with Islam as the majority religion, all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, irregardless of the income level. And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.
Pogledajmo sada šta se dogodilo u svijetu. Pokrećem svijet, i idemo. Sada u 1962. -- možete vidjeti da postaju malo bogatiji, ali da broj beba po ženi opada? Pogledajte Kinu. Oni opadaju prilično brzo. U svim islamskim zemljama nastaje pad u odnosu na nivo prihoda, kao i zemljama sa kršćanskom većinom sa srednjim prihodom. Kada uđemo u ovaj vijek, naći ćete više od pola čovječanstva ovdje. Do 2010., 80 procenata ljudi, zapravo živi u zemljama sa oko 2 djeteta po ženi.
Now let's see what has happened in the world. I start the world, and here we go. Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, but the number of babies per woman is falling? Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. And when we enter into this century, you'll find more than half of mankind down here. And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans who live in countries with about two children per woman.
(Aplauz)
(Applause)
Prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se desio. (Aplauz) I ovo su zemlje od Sjedinjenih država ovdje, sa 40 hiljada dolara po glavi stanovnika, Francuska, Rusija, Iran, Meksiko, Turska, Alžir, Indonezija, Indija i sve do Bangladeša i Vijetnama, koje imaju manje od pet procenata prihoda po glavi stanovnika u poređenju sa SAD-om i isti broj beba po jednoj ženi.
It's a quite amazing development which has happened. (Applause) And these are countries from United States here, with $40,000 per capita, France, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, Indonesia, India and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States and the same amount of babies per woman.
Mogu vam reći da je podatak o broju djece po ženi iznenađujuće dobar u svim zemljama. Dobijamo ga popisom stanovništva. To nije jedna od onih sumnjivih statistika.
I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman is surprisingly good in all countries. We get that from the census data. It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
Tako da možemo zaključiti da ne morate biti bogati da biste imali manje djece. To se dešava širom svijeta.
So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. It has happened across the world.
I kada pogledamo religije, možemo vidjeti da u istočnjačkim religijama zaista nema ni jedne zemlje koja ima više od troje djece. Istovremeno, tamo gdje su Islam i Kršćanstvo većinske religije imate zemlje u svim kategorijama. Ali nema veće razlike. Nema veće razlike između ovih religija. Ima razlike u prihodima. Zemlje koje imaju mnogo beba po ženi ovdje, one imaju prilično niske prihode. Većina ih je u subsaharskoj Africi. Ali tu su takođe ovdje i zemlje poput Gvatemale, poput Papua Nove Gvineje, poput Jemena i Afganistana.
And then when we look at religions, we can see that the Eastern religions, indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion that has more than three children. Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, you see countries all the way. But there's no major difference. There's no major difference between these religions. There is a difference with income. The countries which have many babies per woman here, they have quite low income. Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. But there are also countries here like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, like Yemen and Afghanistan.
Mnogi bi pomislili da Afganistan i Kongo, koji su pretrpjeli teške sukobe, da oni nemaju brz rast populacije. Zapravo je suprotno. U današnjem svijetu, zemlje koje imaju najviše stope smrtnosti imaju najbrži rast populacije. Jer je smrt djeteta kompenzirana djetetom više. Ove zemlje imaju šestoro djece po ženi. One imaju tužnu stopu smrtnosti od jedno do dvoje djece po ženi. Ali za 30 godina, Afganistan će povećati broj stanovnika sa 30 na 60 miliona. Kongo će povećati stanovništvo sa 60 na 120. Tu imamo najbrži rast populacije. I mnogi misle da ove zemlje stagniraju, ali to nije tačno.
Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts, that they don't have fast population growth. It's the other way around. In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates that have the fastest population growth. Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. These countries have six children per woman. They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. Congo will go from 60 to 120. That's where we have the fast population growth. And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
Hajde da uporedimo Senegal, zemlju sa muslimanskom većinom, sa Ganom, u kojoj su kršćani dominantni. Vratiću ih unazad do njihove nezavisnosti, kada su bile ovdje gore početkom 60-ih. Samo pogledajte šta su uradili. To je zapanjujući napredak, od sedmoro djece po ženi, spustili su se ovamo dolje na četvoro i petoro. To je ogroman napredak.
Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. I take them backwards here to their independence, when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. Just look what they have done. It's an amazing improvement, from seven children per woman, they've gone all the way down to between four and five. It's a tremendous improvement.
Zbog čega je to tako? Dobro znamo šta je potrebno u ovim zemljama. Morate imati djecu da bi preživjeli. Morate izaći iz najdubljeg siromaštva kako djeca više nisu neophodna za rad u porodici. Morate imati pristup nekakvom planiranju porodice. I potreban vam je četvrti, možda najvažniji faktor.
So what does it take? Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. You need to have children to survive. You need to get out of the deepest poverty so children are not of importance for work in the family. You need to have access to some family planning. And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
Ali dozvolite mi da ilustrujem taj četvrti faktor posmatrajući Katar. Ovdje imamo današnji Katar, a tamo je Bangladeš. Vratiću ove zemlje unazad do godine njihove nezavisnosti, što je otprilike u isto vrijeme -- 71., 72. -- prilično je zapanjujući razvoj koji se dogodio. Pogledajmo Bangladeš i Katar. Sa potpuno različitim prihodima, skoro je jednak pad u broju beba po jednoj ženi.
But let me illustrate that fourth factor by looking at Qatar. Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- it's a quite amazing development which had happened. Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop in number of babies per woman.
I šta je razlog tome u Kataru? Dakle, uradiću ono što uvijek radim. Otišao sam na internet stranice statističkih institucija Katara -- imaju veoma dobru stranicu, preporučujem je -- i kad sam pogledao - o da, možete se dobro zabaviti ovdje -- i preuzeo sam potpuno besplatno katarske socijalne trendove. Veoma interesantno. Mnogo toga za pročitati. Pronašao sam ukupnu stopu plodnosti po ženi. Ovo su naučnici i eksperti u zvaničnoj statističkoj agenciji Katara i oni kažu da su najvažniji faktori sljedeći: "Starija dob pri stupanju u prvi brak, povećan nivo obrazovanja katarske žene i više žena integrisano u radnoj snazi." Potpuno se slažem. Nauka je potpuno saglasna sa ovim. Ovo je zemlja koja je uistinu prošla kroz veoma, veoma zanimljivu modernizaciju.
And what is the reason in Qatar? Well I do as I always do. I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. Very interesting. Lots to read. I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, and they say the most important factors are: "Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force." I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. This is a country that indeed has gone through a very, very interesting modernization.
Dakle, tu su nabrojana četiri faktora: djeca bi trebalo da prežive, ne bi trebalo da su potrebna za rad, žene bi trebalo da dobiju obrazovanje i da se priključe radnoj snazi i planiranje porodice bi trebalo biti dostupno.
So what it is, is these four: Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, women should get education and join the labor force and family planning should be accessible.
Pogledajmo to sad ponovo. Prosječan broj djece u svijetu je kao u Kolumbiji -- danas je 2,4. Postoje zemlje koje su veoma siromašne. I to je tamo gdje je potrebno planiranje porodice i bolja stopa preživljavanja djece. Iskreno preporučujem najnovije predavanje Melinde Gates na TED-u. I ovdje, dolje, tu su mnoge zemlje koje imaju manje od dvoje djece po svakoj ženi. Dakle, kad se vratim da vam odgovorim na kviz pitanje, odgovor je dva.
Now look again at this. The average number of children in the world is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. There are countries up here which are very poor. And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, it's two.
Dostigli smo vrhunac broja djece. Broj djece neće više rasti u svijetu. Još uvijek debatujemo oko vrhunca kad se radi o nafti, ali smo definitivno dostigli vrhunac kad se radi o djeci. I svjetska populacija će prestati rasti. Odjel za populaciju Ujedinjenih nacija je rekao da će prestati rasti na nivou od 10 milijardi. Ali, zašto populacija raste ako se broj djece ne povećava?
We have reached peak child. The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. And the world population will stop growing. The United Nations Population Division has said it will stop growing at 10 billion. But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
Pokazaću vam ovdje. Koristiću ove kartonske kutije u kojima su stigli vaši notesi. One su prilično korisne za edukacijske svrhe. Svaka kutija predstavlja milijardu ljudi. I ovdje imamo dvije milijarde djece na svijetu. Dvije milijarde mladih između 15 i 30 godina. Ovo su zaokruženi brojevi. Zatim imamo jednu milijardu onih između 30 i 45 godina, i skoro jednu starosti 45 do 60 godina. Zatim, tu je i moja kutija. Tu sam ja: preko 60. Mi smo na vrhu.
Well I will show you here. I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. They are quite useful for educational purposes. Each card box is one billion people. And there are two billion children in the world. There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. These are rounded numbers. Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, almost one between 45 and 60. And then it's my box. This is me: 60-plus. We are here on top.
Ono što će se desiti je nazvano "veliko popunjavanje". Možemo vidjeti da oko tri milijarde ovdje nedostaje. Oni ne nedostaju zato što su umrli, nego zato što nisu ni rođeni. Zato što je prije 1980., bilo mnogo manje ljudi rođeno nego u proteklih 30 godina. Ono što se dalje dešava je prilično jednostavno razumljivo. Stari će, nažalost, umrijeti. Većina vas će odrasti i imaćete dvije milijarde djece. Zatim će stari umrijeti. Ostali će odrasti i dobiti dvije milijarde djece. A onda će takođe stari umrijeti i dobiće dvije milijarde djece.
So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up." You can see that it's like three billion missing here. They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born than there were during the last 30 years. So what will happen now is quite straightforward. The old, sadly, we will die. The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. Then the old will die. The rest will grow older and get two billion children. And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
(Aplauz)
(Applause)
to je to veliko popunjavanje. Neizbježno je. I možete li vidjeti da se ovo povećanje desilo bez da se život produžavao i bez dodavanja djece?
This is the great fill-up. It's inevitable. And can you see that this increase took place without life getting longer and without adding children?
Religije imaju veoma malo veze sa brojem beba koje rađa svaka žena. Sve religije na svijetu su potpuno sposobne održati njihove vrijednosti i prilagoditi se novom svijetu.
Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
Biće nas samo 10 milijardi na ovom svijetu, ako najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva, ako njihova djeca prežive i ako imaju pristup planiranju porodice. To je potrebno. Ali je neizbježno da će nas biti dvije ili tri milijarde više. Tako, kada diskutujete i kada planirate o resursima i energiji potrebnim za budućnost za ljude na ovoj planeti, morate ih planirati za 10 milijardi. Hvala mnogo. (Aplauz)
And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. That is needed. But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. Thank you very much. (Applause)