I'm going to talk about your mindset. Does your mindset correspond to my dataset? (Laughter) If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
我今天要來談談你的心智 你的心智是否與我的資料相符? (笑) 若不相符,其中一個需要做更新,對不對?
When I talk to my students about global issues, and I listen to them in the coffee break, they always talk about "we" and "them." And when they come back into the lecture room I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"? "Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say. "We learned it in college." And what is the definition then? "The definition? Everyone knows," they say.
當我跟我的學生談到全球議題時, 在休息時間時,我總聽到他們説, 説〞我們〞和〞他們〞。 等他們回到教室的時候, 我問〞你們口中的「我們」和「他們」是什麼意思?〞 〞喔,很簡單啊,就是西方(已開發)世界和開發中的世界〞,他們説。 “我們在大學時所學的” 那是什麼意思?定義是什麼? 他們回答說:這是常識。
But then you know, I press them like this. So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy. Western world is a long life in a small family. Developing world is a short life in a large family." And I like that definition, because it enabled me to transfer their mindset into the dataset. And here you have the dataset. So, you can see that what we have on this axis here is size of family. One, two, three, four, five children per woman on this axis. And here, length of life, life expectancy, 30, 40, 50. Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
接著,我繼續逼問他們 於是一個很聰明的女孩答説,“這很簡單” 西方世界泛指長壽、小家庭的國家。 而開發中世界是平均壽命短,大家庭的國家。 我喜歡這個定義,因為這讓我 可以將他們的心智轉換 成資料 於是這裡我們得到這個資料結果 大家可以看到我們在這個軸上: 是家庭的大小:一,二,三,四,五 個小孩/每個女人為單位在這個軸上。 然後這裡,平均壽命的長度 三十,四十,五十。 正是學生們對這個世界的概念。
And really this is about the bedroom. Whether the man and woman decide to have small family, and take care of their kids, and how long they will live. It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know, you can live long. And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted -- the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here, which had large families and short life. Developing world. And we had one set of countries up there which was the western world. They had small families and long life.
而這正與臥房有關 當男人和女人決定建立一個小家庭 然後撫育他們的小孩,以及他們會活多久。 這和浴室與廚房有關。也就是說,如果你有肥皂,水和食物 你就可以活得久。 所以這些學生是對的。不過這不是世界組成的方式 世界在這些地方組成:在這裡的一大群國家 這些家庭大,平均壽命短的開發中世界。 然後在上面一點這裡我們有另一群國家 就是西方世界。 他們家庭小,平均壽命長。
And you are going to see here the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime. Then the developing countries applied soap and water, vaccination. And all the developing world started to apply family planning. And partly to USA who help to provide technical advice and investment. And you see all the world moves over to a two child family, and a life with 60 to 70 years.
然後你在這裡將看到 在我一生中世界所發生最驚人的事。 自此這些開發中國家使用 肥皂、水,疫苗 所有開發中國家開始採行家庭計劃。 一部份是美國幫忙提供 技術諮詢與投資 你看到全部的世界移向兩個小孩的家庭 平均壽命約60到70歲
But some countries remain back in this area here. And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here. We have Liberia. We have Congo. So we have countries living there. So the problem I had is that the worldview that my students had corresponds to reality in the world the year their teachers were born. (Laughter) (Applause)
但有一些國家仍停留在後面這個區域 大家可以看到阿富汗仍然在下面這區 利比亞、剛果 仍然有國家在這些區域 所以我發現到問題就是 這些學生們所具有的世界觀 對應真實的世界 停留在他們老師出生的這一年。 笑 鼓掌
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world. I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week, and I could see the wrong concept even active people in United States had, that they didn't realize the improvement of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States. Look here when I move them forward. Here we go. They catch up. There's Mexico. It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions. There was less than five percent of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this. This great nation, Mexico, has the problem that arms are coming from North, across the borders, so they had to stop that, because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
所以我們事實上在玩弄這個過時的概念 我上禮拜在華盛頓參加全球健康會議 而我看到這個錯誤的概念 甚至是在美國活躍的人仍有。 也就是他們並沒有察覺到進步: 墨西哥的進步、中國的進步,相較於美國的 看看這裡,當我將他們推進 到這裡 他們追上了。這裡有墨西哥 在這兩個社會面向上,墨西哥和美國不相上下 只有不到5% 的全球健康專員意識到這件事 這個大國,墨西哥 有北方來的武器的問題 越過國界,所以他們必須阻止走私這件事。 因為他們和美國有著微妙的關係,你知道。
But if I would change this axis here, I would instead put income per person. Income per person. I can put that here. And we will then see a completely different picture. By the way, I'm teaching you how to use our website, Gapminder World, while I'm correcting this, because this is a free utility on the net. And when I now finally got it right, I can go back 200 years in history. And I can find United States up there. And I can let the other countries be shown. And now I have income per person on this axis. And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time. And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years, on par with Afghanistan today.
但如果我改變這裡的這個軸,看。 然後把單位改成人均收入 人均收人。我可以把那放在這。 然後我們可以看到, 一個完全不同的現象 對了,我正在教你們 如何使用我們的網站:Gapminder World 為什麼我要修改這個? 因為這是網路上免費的資源 而當我終於把它弄對了, 我可以回到二百年前 然後我可以看到美國在上面這裡, 而且我可以顯示其他國家 而現在我在這個軸上有人均收入 美國人在當時平均只有2,000美金 而平均壽命只有35到40歲 和今天的阿富汗一樣。
And what has happened in the world, I will show now. This is instead of studying history for one year at university. You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing. (Laughter) You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe, and the yellow one, which is the United States, they get richer and richer and also start to get healthier and healthier. And this is now 100 years ago, where the rest of the world remains behind. Here we come. And that was the influenza. That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it? It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy. And then we come up. Not until independence started.
然後世界上發生了什麼事,我現在展示給你們看 相較於在大學裡 讀一年的歷史 你可以用一分鐘的時間看我,然後你看到完整的故事♫ (笑) 你可以看到這些代表西歐的棕色圈圈, 而代表美國的黃色圈圈 他們如何愈來愈富有並且 開始愈來愈健康 而這是100年前, 當其餘的國家還遠遠落後 就是這裡,流行病爆發 這就是為什麼我們這麼怕流行性感冒,不是嗎? 人們仍然記得。平均壽命的縮短。 然後我們起來了,一直要到 獨立時期開始
Look here You have China over there, you have India over there, and this is what has happened. Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there? Mexico is not at all on par with the United States, but they are quite close. And especially, it's interesting to see China and the United States during 200 years, because I have my oldest son now working for Google, after Google acquired this software. Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet for many years and developed this. And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing. So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know? And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing, in China, he got a long-term perspective. Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google, he should develop by quarter, or by half-year. Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
看中國在那裡 而印度在那裡 而這是已經發生的 你注意到那裡,我們有墨西哥在上面那裡, 墨西哥和美國一點也不相等 但他們很近 特別有趣的是觀察 這200年間的 中國跟美國 因為我大兒子在Google買下這套軟體後, 就在Google工作 因為事實上這是我孩子的心血。我兒子和他的妻子待在小房間裡 許多年然後開發了這個 而我的小兒子,曾去北京學中文 結果他們給了我兩種不同的觀點,你們知道嗎? 我那個在中國北京讀過書的小兒子, 他看事情是用長遠的觀點 而我那在Google工作的大兒子, 他則要每季或每半年開發新的成果 或者説Google還蠻大方的,所以他可以有一到兩年去做這件事。
But in China they look generation after generation because they remember the very embarrassing period, for 100 years, when they went backwards. And then they would remember the first part of last century, which was really bad, and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward. But this was 1963. Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China, and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started this amazing move forward.
但在中國,他們看世代的交替 因為他們記得 過去這100年來非常困窘的時期, 這段他們退步的時期 於是他們會記得上個世紀的 前半部,非常糟的時期。 然後歷經這個所謂的大躍進 但這是在1963年 毛澤東終於為中國帶來健康 然後他死了。而鄧小平開始 這個驚人的進步
Isn't it strange to see that the United States first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich? Whereas China could get healthy much earlier, because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition, and then also benefits of penicillin and vaccines and family planning. And Asia could have social development before they got the economic development. So to me, as a public health professor, it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
難道看美國一開始發展經濟 然後逐漸富裕不奇怪嗎? 而中國卻在更早的時候就發展健康, 因為他們可以實施了教育、營養的知識 他們同樣受惠於盤尼西林 疫苗以及家庭計劃。 所以亞洲在經濟發展前 先有社會層面的建設 所以對我一個公共衛生教授而言, 看這些國家發展如此迅速一點也不奇怪。
Because what you see here, what you see here is the flat world of Thomas Friedman, isn't it. It's not really, really flat. But the middle income countries -- and this is where I suggest to my students, stop using the concept "developing world." Because after all, talking about the developing world is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
因為你在這裡看到什麼,在這裡看到的 就是湯瑪士傅利曼所説的世界是平的 不是嗎? 其實不竟然如此 但這些中產國家 這是我對我的學生建議的 停止用〝開發中國家〞這樣的概念 因為畢竟,提到開發中國家 就像是讀美國歷史的兩個章節
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama, and the other is about the past, where you cover everything from Washington to Eisenhower. Because Washington to Eisenhower, that is what we find in the developing world. We could actually go to Mayflower to Eisenhower, and that would be put together into a developing world, which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way, which have great entrepreneurs, but also have the collapsing countries.
後面的這章是現在,也就是歐巴馬總統 而另一章則是過去 指的是從華盛頓開始 到艾森豪 因為從華盛頓到艾森豪 是我們在開發中國家中看見的 我們實際上可以從五月花號 到艾森豪 這段時間的情形可以在開發中國家中看見 然而這些國家中的城市正以驚人的方式成長 其中有許多厲害的創業家 但也有正在傾頹中的國家
So, how could we make better sense about this? Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could look at income distribution. This is the income distribution of peoples in the world, from $1. This is where you have food to eat. These people go to bed hungry. And this is the number of people. This is $10, whether you have a public or a private health service system. This is where you can provide health service for your family and school for your children, and this is OECD countries: Green, Latin America, East Europe. This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
所以我們要怎麼要如何解釋這樣的結果呢? 一種方式是看我們可以試著 觀察收入的分配 這是世界上各民族的收入分配 從一元。這裡是你有食物可以吃。 這些人餓著肚子睡覺 而這些人 這是十元。不論你有公營或私營的 健康服務系統,這裡你可以 提供你的家人、學校與子女健康服務。 然後這裡是OECD成員國 綠色的,拉丁美洲、東歐 這裡是東亞。而淡藍色的圈圈是南亞。
And this is how the world changed. It changed like this. Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia? And it goes over here? And I come now, into projections, but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because -- (Laughter) that's where the projections are not valid any longer. Probably the world will do this. and then it will continue forward like this. But more or less, this is what will happen, and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
這是世界如何改變。 它像這樣改變。 你可以看到它是怎麼成長的嗎?有成千上百萬 甚至上億的亞洲人正在遠離貧窮? 它走到這裡 然後我現在到這理,做預測。 但我必須要停在雷曼兄弟門口,你知道,因為⋯ (笑) 因為這裡的預測不再準確 或許這個世界會這麼做 然後它會繼續像這樣往前 但或多或少這就是會發生的 我們有一個不能被分開檢視的世界
We have the high income countries here, with the United States as a leading power; we have the emerging economies in the middle, which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout; and we have the low income countries here. Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes, they have been saving, you know, over the last decade. And here we have the low income countries where entrepreneurs are. And here we have the countries in collapse and war, like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur. We have all this at the same time.
這裡有高所得國家 以美國為首 在中間這裡有新興市場 提供很多資供緊急融資 而這裡有低所得國家 這是金錢來源的事實 你知道的,他們在過去十年間一直在存錢 而這裡的低所得國家 是創業家所在的地方 而這裡我們有衰敗和戰爭中的國家 阿富汗、索馬利亞,部分的剛果、達弗 我們同時擁有這些
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened in the developing world. Because it's so different, what has happened there. And that's why I suggest a slightly different approach of what you would call it. And you have huge differences within countries also. I heard that your departments here were by regions. Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Arab states, East Europe, Latin America, and OECD. And on this axis, GDP. And on this, heath, child survival, and it doesn't come as a surprise that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
這也是為什麼要解釋在開發中世界所發生的事 是多麼困難 因為它是如此不同,指的是在那裡所發生的事。 也因此我建議 用些微不同的方式來稱呼 同時在國與國間,也有很大的差別 我聽説你們的部門是以地區分的 這裡有次撒哈拉非洲,南亞 東亞、阿拉伯國家 東歐、拉丁美洲和OECD國家 GDP在這個軸上 健康以及小孩的存活率在這裡 不意外地 非洲、撒哈拉南部在底部
But when I split it, when I split it into country bubbles, the size of the bubbles here is the population. Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different. There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa. And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian, Arab world. Now all your different departments. East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries. And here were are. We have a continuum in the world. We cannot put it into two parts.
但當我分開它,當我拆解它 成為代表國家的圈圈 圈圈的大小是人口數 你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不同的 在次撒哈拉非洲地區裡就有如此的差異 我還把其他的也拆解了。這裡的是南亞 阿拉伯世界 這樣你們看到了不同的區域與國家 東歐、拉丁美洲、和富裕國家 於是我們就得到了一個世界的進程 我們不能只把它分成兩個部分
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here, building, building countries. It's Lincoln here, advancing them. It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries. And then it's United States today, up here. And we have countries all this way. Now, this is the important thing of understanding how the world has changed. At this point I decided to make a pause. (Laughter)
下面這裡是五月花(時期),這裡是華盛頓(時期) 不斷地開發、建設國家 這裡是林肯(時期),又加速了發展 是艾森豪為這些國家帶來現代化 然後在上面這裡就是今天的美國 於是我們有這些模式發展的國家 現在重點來了 要了解世界是如何被改變 在這個點我決定要。。。。。。。。。。 (笑)
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world, to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers, for Demographic Health Survey. Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke. This is very serious. It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring during 25 years of the very good methodology for measuring child mortality that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world. (Applause) And it is U.S. government at its best, without advocacy, providing facts, that it's useful for the society. And providing data free of charge on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
而這是我的工作,代表其他的世界 傳達對美國納稅人的謝意 關於人口統計的健康調查 很多人沒意識到—不,我不是開玩笑 這是很嚴肅的議題 是因為美國不停的支持 在這25年之中有非常好的方法 來計算幼兒的死亡率 好讓我們能理解世界上正在發生的事 (鼓掌) 而美國政府盡力的 不經任何倡導,直接提供數據 而這是對社會有益的 甚至還提供免費的資料 在網路上以供全世界使用。非常謝謝你們。
Quite the opposite of the World Bank, who compiled data with government money, tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit, in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way. (Applause) But the people doing that at the World Bank are among the best in the world. And they are highly skilled professionals. It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do. And when it comes to free data and transparency, United States of America is one of the best. And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor. (Laughter) And I'm not paid to come here, no.
相反地世界銀行 用各政府的錢收集資料 稅收,然後他們賣資料以圖一點點的利潤 用一種非常無效的方法 (鼓掌) 但在世界銀行做這些事的人 是世界上最頂尖的人 而且是有很高技巧的專業人士 正是如此,我們需要升級我們的國際機構 用現代的方式來處理這個世界,就好像我們做的 而關於免費的數據與透明度 美國是數一數二的好 而這樣的讚美可是很難從一個瑞典公衛教授嘴巴裡吐出來的 (笑) 此外,我不是受雇來這裡的,不是。
I would like to show you what happens with the data, what we can show with this data. Look here. This is the world. With income down there and child mortality. And what has happened in the world? Since 1950, during the last 50 years we have had a fall in child mortality. And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this. And we had an increase in income. And the blue former developing countries are mixing up with the former industrialized western world. We have a continuum. But we still have, of course, Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries as we have had, always, in history. And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today about a completely new approach to do it.
我想跟大家分享這資料的含義 及如何解讀這結果 看這裡,這是我們所處的世界 收入和小孩的死亡率在下面這裡 那麼這個世界到底經歷了什麼呢? 自1950年,在過去50年來, 小孩的死亡率降低了, 人口跟健康調查報告使我們得知此結果 我們也看到收入的增加 而這些藍色的前開發中國家 正和之前的工業化西方世界融合 所以這是進程。當然我們仍在進程中。 剛果,在上面那,我們仍有貧窮的國家。 這樣的情況,古今皆然 那是今天我們所聽説的最後的百萬 以近乎全新的方式來完成
And how fast has this happened? Well, MDG 4. The United States has not been so eager to use MDG 4. But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it, because it's the only child mortality that we can measure. And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year. Let's see what Sweden has done. We used to boast about fast social progress. That's where we were, 1900. 1900, Sweden was there. Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990, though they had lower income. They started very well. They used the aid well. They vaccinated the kids. They get better water. And they reduced child mortality, with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden. I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
那麼這樣的發生有多快速呢 説説聯合國千禧年發展目標4 美國至今仍未熱切地 運用千禧年發展目標4 但你們一直以來是主要的資助者好讓我們可以去衡量它 因為這是我們可以衡量的唯一的兒童死亡率 而且我們習慣説每年死亡率應該下降4% 讓我們來看看瑞典做了什麼 我們曾經自豪快速的社會進步 這是我們過去所在,1900 1900時,瑞典在那裡 和1990年時和孟加拉一樣的兒童死亡率 雖然他們有比較低的收入 他們的開始非常好,他們使用援助得很好 他們為兒童打預防針,他們得到比較乾淨的水 所以兒童死亡率下降了 以每年4.7%的驚人速率。他們打敗了瑞典 我們看這16年的瑞典
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916, against Egypt, 1990. Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here. They get safe water, they get food for the poor, and they get malaria eradicated. 5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
這會是瑞典的1916年 對應1990年的埃及 這裡我們得到結果。又一次,美國是部份原因 他們得到較乾淨的水,貧窮的人獲得食物 而且瘧疾也被根除了 5.5%。這比千禧年發展目標還要快
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here. Brazil here has amazing social improvement over the last 16 years, and they go faster than Sweden. This means that the world is converging. The middle income countries, the emerging economy, they are catching up. They are moving to cities, where they also get better assistance for that.
而瑞典的第三次機會,在這裡對上巴西 而這裡的巴西有驚人的社會成長 在過去的16年裡 他們走得比瑞典要快 這意味著世界在匯合中 這些中產國家 這個新興的經濟體,他們正迎頭趕上 他們的人口移到都市 在這裡他們同樣可以得到比較好的支援
Well the Swedish students protest at this point. They say, "This is not fair, because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics that were not available for Sweden. We have to do real-time competition." Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born. Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden. It's the most tropical country in the world, a marshland on the equator. And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent. But then they started to grow their economy. And they made the social investment. They got away malaria. They got a magnificent health system that beat both the U.S. and Sweden. We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden! (Applause)
而同時間瑞典人做的就是保護 他們説,這不公平 因為這些國家有疫苗和抗生素 這在當時的瑞典並沒有 這樣的比較不夠即時 好吧,我舉新加坡為例,在我出生的這一年 新加坡的兒童死亡率是瑞典兩倍 它是世界上最熱帶的國家 是在赤道上的沼澤 這裡得到結果。他們花了一點時間得到獨立 但隨即他們開始發展經濟 他們發展了社會投資,他們擺脫了瘧疾 他們有良好的健康系統 他們打敗了美國和瑞典 我們從未想過他們能勝過瑞典 (鼓掌)
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals. These yellow are just about to be doing this. These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved. Not simplistic extrapolation. We have to really find a way of supporting those countries in a better way. We have to respect the middle income countries on what they are doing. And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
所有這些綠色的國家都在達到千禧年發展目標 這些黃色的正要開始發展 這些紅色的國家沒有去做,而且他們的政策需要改進 這不是最簡化的推斷 我們必須真的找到一個方式 用更好的方式來支持那些國家 我們必須尊重這些中產國家 關於他們正在做的事 而且我們必須根據事實地來看這個世界
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries. The blue is Africa. The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected. You see the tragedy in South Africa there. About 20 percent of the adult population are infected. And in spite of them having quite a high income, they have a huge number of HIV infected. But you also see that there are African countries down here. There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa. There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa that has the same level as Sweden and United States. And there are others who are extremely high.
這是每人每美元。這是在這些國家的愛滋病感染 藍色的是非洲 這些圈圈的大小是指有多少人感染愛滋病 你們在那裡可以看到在南非的悲劇 大約有20%的成年人口都被感染了 雖然他們有很相當高的收入 有很多人都感染愛滋病 但你們還可以看到下面的這些非洲國家 在非洲並沒有所謂的愛滋蔓延 有一個數字,在非洲5到10個國家 和瑞典與美國有相同的水準 同時也有其他非常地高
And I will show you that what has happened in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy in Africa and a good governance, Botswana. They have a very high level. It's coming down. But now it's not falling, because there, with help from PEPFAR, it's working with treatment. And people are not dying. And you can see it's not that easy, that it is war which caused this. Because here, in Congo, there is war. And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
我將展現給各位發生了什麼事 在最好的國家之一裡,有最生氣勃勃的經濟 也有很好的政府效能的是非洲的波紮那 他們的水準非常高,而這兒正在下降 但現在它不再下降了, 因為那裡,有了美國總統防治艾滋病緊急救援計劃的幫助 連同治療,人們不再死亡 大家可以看到這並不容易 而那是戰爭引發的 因為在剛果這裡有戰爭 而這裡在尚比亞有和平
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher. If I split Tanzania in its income, the richer 20 percent in Tanzania has more HIV than the poorest one. And it's really different within each country. Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different. And this is the situation you see. It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation, probably of concurrent sexual partnership among part of the heterosexual population in some countries, or some parts of countries, in south and eastern Africa.
這不是經濟,較富裕的國家比較高 如果我將坦尚尼亞依它的收入拆開 在坦尚尼亞較富的20% 比最窮的這些有更多的愛滋病 所以在國家之內的情況也是大有差異的 看看肯亞的這些省分,他們非常不同 而這是你看到的情況 這不是很嚴重的貧窮,這是特別情況 或許是現代的同居 在異性戀人口中的部份 在一些國家,或一些國家的部份 在南部和東部的非洲
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue. Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place, in the way it can be done there. So to just end up, there are things of suffering in the one billion poorest, which we don't know. Those who live beyond the cellphone, those who have yet to see a computer, those who have no electricity at home.
不要泛指非洲,不要把它變成一個種族的問題 讓它是一個個別議題,而且在每個地方都做預防 某種程度上,這是可以做得到的 所以只要停止、結束 有折磨人的事 在這十億最窮的人身上,而我們不知道 這些人沒有手機用 也從沒看過電腦 家裡沒有電
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years elucidating in Africa. It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation. It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s. It's similar to other nutritional diseases. It will never affect a rich person.
這是Konzo的病,我花了20年 在非洲釐清 成因是在飢荒的情況下,有毒樹薯根的快速演成 就好像在30年代在密西西比的玉蜀黍疹 它和其他的營養疾病相同 有錢的人不會感染到
We have seen it here in Mozambique. This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania. You never heard about the disease. But it's much more than Ebola that has been affected by this disease. Cause crippling throughout the world. And over the last two years, 2,000 people has been crippled in the southern tip of Bandundu region. That used to be the illegal diamond trade, from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola. That has now disappeared, and they are now in great economic problem. And one week ago, for the first time, there were four lines on the Internet.
我們在莫三比克看到這樣的情形 這是莫三比克裡的流行病。這在北部的坦尚尼亞也造成流行 你從未聽聞這樣的疾病 但它比伊波拉還要多 而伊波拉也受這樣的疾病影響 造成全世界的嚴重後果 而在過去的兩年裡 2,000人已經殘廢了 在南部端點的Bandunda(前剛果民主共和國)地區 那裡曾有非法的鑽石交易 由占領安哥拉地區的UNITA組織 現在已經消失了 而他們現在陷入了很大的經濟問題 一個星期前,首度 在網路上有四條線
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies and the great capacity of people in the middle income countries and in peaceful low income countries. There is still mystery in one billion. And we have to have more concepts than just developing countries and developing world. We need a new mindset. The world is converging, but -- but -- but not the bottom billion. They are still as poor as they've ever been. It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower. But you will remain one of the most important superpowers, and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be. And this institution will have a very crucial role, not for United States, but for the world. So you have a very bad name, State Department. This is not the State Department. It's the World Department. And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much. (Applause)
不要迷糊了新興經濟體的進展 以及中產國家人民 的驚人潛力 在和平雖低收入的國家 10億人口的未來還是未知數 而我們必須意識到 而不僅是開發中國家和開發中的世界 我們需要全新的思維模式,這個世界正在匯合 但,但,但,不是最下面的這一大群 他們仍像過去一樣窮 這不會持續下去,而且也不會在一個強權的手上發生 但美國還是會保有 最重要強權之一的寶座 而且到時是最有希望的強權 而 國務院 將扮演非常重要的角色 不單為了美國,而是為了全世界 你們組織名稱不妥 國務院,這不是一個國家的內務單位而已 而是全天下的 而且我們對你們有很高的希望,謝謝大家。 (鼓掌)