I'm going to talk about your mindset. Does your mindset correspond to my dataset? (Laughter) If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
我会来谈谈你们的心态。 看看你们的心态和我的数据是相符合的吗? (笑) 如果不是,其中的一个就需要升级了,对吗?
When I talk to my students about global issues, and I listen to them in the coffee break, they always talk about "we" and "them." And when they come back into the lecture room I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"? "Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say. "We learned it in college." And what is the definition then? "The definition? Everyone knows," they say.
当我和我的学生在谈论全球问题时, 我是在喝咖啡的时候听他们谈论的。 他们经常会谈论“我们”和“他们”。 然后当他们回到上课的地方的时候, 我问他们,“你们说‘我们’和‘他们’是什么意思”? “啊,那很简单,就是西方世界和发展中国家”,他们说到。 “我们在大学里学到的。” 那定义是什么呢?“定义? 每个人都知道,”他们说到,
But then you know, I press them like this. So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy. Western world is a long life in a small family. Developing world is a short life in a large family." And I like that definition, because it enabled me to transfer their mindset into the dataset. And here you have the dataset. So, you can see that what we have on this axis here is size of family. One, two, three, four, five children per woman on this axis. And here, length of life, life expectancy, 30, 40, 50. Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
但是你知道,我向这样给他们施加压力。 所以,一个女孩说到,十分聪明的,“这很简单。 西方国家是在一个小家庭里拥有较长的寿命。 发展中国家是在一个大家庭里有较短的寿命。“ 我喜欢这样的定义因为这让我可以去 将他们的心态转换 到我的数据中。 这里你有数据。 你可以看到这个坐标轴代表着 家庭的大小。每个妇女有一,二,三,四,五 个小孩在这个坐标轴上。 在这里,是生命的长度,预期寿命, 30、40、50. 这就正是我的学生概念中的世界。
And really this is about the bedroom. Whether the man and woman decide to have small family, and take care of their kids, and how long they will live. It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know, you can live long. And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted -- the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here, which had large families and short life. Developing world. And we had one set of countries up there which was the western world. They had small families and long life.
而这也和卧室有关。 男人和女人决定他们是否创造一个小的家庭, 是否去照顾他们的孩子,以及他们的寿命长短。 是和卧室和厨房有关。如果你有肥皂,水和食物,你知道, 你可以活的长点。 学生们是对的。这不是世界所包括的-- 世界所包括的在这里,一组在这里的国家, 他们有较大的家庭和较短的寿命。发展中国家。 然后我们在这上面有一组国家 是西方国家。 他们有较小的家庭和较长的寿命。
And you are going to see here the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime. Then the developing countries applied soap and water, vaccination. And all the developing world started to apply family planning. And partly to USA who help to provide technical advice and investment. And you see all the world moves over to a two child family, and a life with 60 to 70 years.
然后你会看到在这里 发生的奇妙的事情,那就是在这个世界上在我有生之年发生的。 发展中国家应用了 肥皂和水,疫苗。 以及所有的发展中国家都应用了家庭计划。 美国也一部分的参与帮助去提供 技术建议和投资。 而且你可以看到世界上所有的家庭都向两个小孩移去, 也向60到70的寿命移去。
But some countries remain back in this area here. And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here. We have Liberia. We have Congo. So we have countries living there. So the problem I had is that the worldview that my students had corresponds to reality in the world the year their teachers were born. (Laughter) (Applause)
但是有些国家还是在原来这里的地方。 然后你可以看到阿富汗还是在那底下。 我们还有黎巴嫩。有刚果。 所以我们还有国家生活在那里。 所以我的问题是 我学生所有的世界观 还停留在他们老师所 出生的年代。 (笑) (鼓掌)
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world. I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week, and I could see the wrong concept even active people in United States had, that they didn't realize the improvement of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States. Look here when I move them forward. Here we go. They catch up. There's Mexico. It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions. There was less than five percent of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this. This great nation, Mexico, has the problem that arms are coming from North, across the borders, so they had to stop that, because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
当我们,实际上,我们已经在全世界展示了这个。 上个星期,我在华盛顿的世界健康会议上, 而且我可以看到,甚至是在美国活跃人物上 都有这样的错误的概念。 他们没有意识到墨西哥,中国 相对与美国的进步。 看这里,当我把他们向前移动时。 开始了。 他们迎头赶上。这是墨西哥。 在这两个社会层面是和美国一样的。 这里要注意的是, 全球健康专家中,只有少于5%的人意识到这一点。 这个伟大的国家,墨西哥, 问题是大量武器来自北方, 穿越边界。所以他们必须制止这一点。 因为,你知道,他们和美国有的奇怪的关系。
But if I would change this axis here, I would instead put income per person. Income per person. I can put that here. And we will then see a completely different picture. By the way, I'm teaching you how to use our website, Gapminder World, while I'm correcting this, because this is a free utility on the net. And when I now finally got it right, I can go back 200 years in history. And I can find United States up there. And I can let the other countries be shown. And now I have income per person on this axis. And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time. And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years, on par with Afghanistan today.
但是如果我把坐标轴换一下,看, 除了这样做,这里,我会把每个人的收入放上。 人均收入。我可以放在这里。 然后我们会看到 一个完全不同的图片。 顺便说一下,我在教你们 怎么使用我们的网站,Gapminder World(代沟提醒世界)。 我为什么会纠正这个? 因为这是在网上的一个免费设备。 而且我终于把它做对了, 我可以在历史上回去200年。 这样我可以在上面这里找到美国。 而且我可以显示其他的国家。 现在我在这个坐标轴上有人均收入。 美国每个人只有2000美元,在那时。 而且寿命的期望值是35到40年, 是和阿富汗的今天一样的。
And what has happened in the world, I will show now. This is instead of studying history for one year at university. You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing. (Laughter) You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe, and the yellow one, which is the United States, they get richer and richer and also start to get healthier and healthier. And this is now 100 years ago, where the rest of the world remains behind. Here we come. And that was the influenza. That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it? It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy. And then we come up. Not until independence started.
我现在马上要展示的,就是世界发生了什么。 这不是在学习历史 而是在大学里的一年。 你可以看我一分钟,然后你就会看到一切。 (笑) 你可以看到这些棕色的气泡,是西欧, 这些黄色的是美国, 他们是怎样变的越来越富有, 同时是这样变的越来越健康。 现在这个是100年前 当世界其他的国家都还是落后时。 我们开始了。那就是大流感。 那就是我们为什么会这么害怕流感,对吗? 我们仍然记得。寿命的缩短。 然后我们又上升了。直到 我们独立。
Look here You have China over there, you have India over there, and this is what has happened. Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there? Mexico is not at all on par with the United States, but they are quite close. And especially, it's interesting to see China and the United States during 200 years, because I have my oldest son now working for Google, after Google acquired this software. Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet for many years and developed this. And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing. So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know? And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing, in China, he got a long-term perspective. Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google, he should develop by quarter, or by half-year. Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
看看你在这里有中国, 在那里有印度, 这就是所发生的。 你可以注意到,我们在这上面有墨西哥。 墨西哥和美国不是完全一样的。 但是他们是十分接近。 而且在这200年里去看看 美国和中国 是十分有趣的。 因为现在我的大儿子在谷歌工作, 当谷歌收购了这款软件后。 因为这时间上是用了童工。我的儿子和妻子在衣橱里 花了很多时间来开发这个。 而我的小儿子,在北京学习中文。 所以我有他们的两个不同的观点,你知道? 我的儿子,在北京学习的最小的那一个。 在中国,他有一个长期的观点。 而在谷歌工作的大儿子, 他得在一季度,或半年里开发成功。 或者谷歌是十分大方的,所以他可以有一年或两年。
But in China they look generation after generation because they remember the very embarrassing period, for 100 years, when they went backwards. And then they would remember the first part of last century, which was really bad, and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward. But this was 1963. Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China, and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started this amazing move forward.
但是在中国,你看的是一代又一代的时间 因为他们记得 那100年十分尴尬的历史, 那时间他们向后退了。 而且他们也记得最后一个世纪的 开端是十分不好的。 我们把这叫做大跃进。 但是在1963年。 毛泽东终于把健康带入了中国。 然后就去世了。然后是邓小平开始 了这奇妙的进步。
Isn't it strange to see that the United States first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich? Whereas China could get healthy much earlier, because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition, and then also benefits of penicillin and vaccines and family planning. And Asia could have social development before they got the economic development. So to me, as a public health professor, it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
难道这不很奇怪吗?看到美国是 先开始增加经济,然后慢慢的变富有。 然而中国则先在很早就变的很健康。 因为他们应用了教育的知识,营养, 他们也同时使用了青霉素 和疫苗,和家庭计划。 这样亚洲是先有的社会发展 后有了经济发展。 所以对我来说,一个公共健康教授, 是不会对这些国家发展的这么快而感到奇怪的。
Because what you see here, what you see here is the flat world of Thomas Friedman, isn't it. It's not really, really flat. But the middle income countries -- and this is where I suggest to my students, stop using the concept "developing world." Because after all, talking about the developing world is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
因为你所看到的这里和这里 就是托马斯弗里德曼的平面世界。 不是吗? 这不是真的真的很平。 但是那些中等收入国家, 这里我就会向我的同学建议 停止使用“发展中国家”这个概念。 因为毕竟,谈论发展中国家 就好像是把美国历史分两个部分。
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama, and the other is about the past, where you cover everything from Washington to Eisenhower. Because Washington to Eisenhower, that is what we find in the developing world. We could actually go to Mayflower to Eisenhower, and that would be put together into a developing world, which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way, which have great entrepreneurs, but also have the collapsing countries.
而最后的一个部分是关于这个总统,奥巴马总统。 另一个部分则是有关过去。 当你把从华盛顿时代 到艾森豪威尔时代都包括进来。 因为从华盛顿到艾森豪威尔 这就是我们所谓的发展中国家 我们其实可以从五月花时代 到艾森豪威尔, 那就是整个的发展中世界。 那就是正确的以一个十分奇妙的方法去发展城市。 那也有企业家, 但是同时我们也有垮掉的国家。
So, how could we make better sense about this? Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could look at income distribution. This is the income distribution of peoples in the world, from $1. This is where you have food to eat. These people go to bed hungry. And this is the number of people. This is $10, whether you have a public or a private health service system. This is where you can provide health service for your family and school for your children, and this is OECD countries: Green, Latin America, East Europe. This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
所以我们怎样才能更好的了解这个呢? 恩,其中一个是看看我们能否 观察收入的分布。 这是世界人口的收入分布, 从1美元开始。这是你开始有食物可以吃的地方。 这些人是饿着睡觉的。 这是这些人的数量。 这是10美元,不管你有公共的或 私人的健康系统。这是你可以开始 为你的家庭提供将康服务,为你的儿童提供学校的地方。 这是经合组织国家。 绿色的是,拉丁美洲,东欧。 这是东亚。南亚是这个浅蓝色。
And this is how the world changed. It changed like this. Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia? And it goes over here? And I come now, into projections, but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because -- (Laughter) that's where the projections are not valid any longer. Probably the world will do this. and then it will continue forward like this. But more or less, this is what will happen, and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
而这是世界上这样变化的。 它像这样发生了变化。 你可以看到是怎样增长的吗?看到那数以万亿的收入 是这样进入到贫穷的亚洲的? 然后它移到这里。 这里是我对未来的预测。 不过我得在莱曼兄弟这里停下来,因为... (笑) 因为这些预测都不准了。 大概世界会这样做。 然后它会持续像这样。 但是多多少少会这样。 而且我们有一个不能去分开看的世界。
We have the high income countries here, with the United States as a leading power; we have the emerging economies in the middle, which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout; and we have the low income countries here. Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes, they have been saving, you know, over the last decade. And here we have the low income countries where entrepreneurs are. And here we have the countries in collapse and war, like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur. We have all this at the same time.
我们在这有高收入国家, 美国作为领队。 我们在中间有新兴经济体, 那给我们提供了救助的基础。 然后我们在这里有低收入的国家。 对,我们的救助的钱的确就是从这些地方来的。 在过去十年里,他们一直都在储蓄。 而这里我们有低收入国家, 那里聚集着大量的企业家。 而这里是因战争而垮掉的国家, 像阿富汗,索马里,部分刚果,达尔富尔。 这些都发生在同一时间。
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened in the developing world. Because it's so different, what has happened there. And that's why I suggest a slightly different approach of what you would call it. And you have huge differences within countries also. I heard that your departments here were by regions. Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Arab states, East Europe, Latin America, and OECD. And on this axis, GDP. And on this, heath, child survival, and it doesn't come as a surprise that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
那也就是为什么去描述发展中国家发生了什么 是如此的困难。 因为那里所发生的非常不同。 那也是我为什么会建议 我们用另一种态度去看待它。 我们在国家间也有巨大的不同。 我听说你们的部门是按地区分的。 这里你有撒哈拉以南非洲,南亚, 东亚,阿拉伯国家, 东欧,拉丁美洲和经合组织。 这里是代表GDP的坐标轴。 这里是健康和儿童存活率。 而且这一点也不让人吃惊 在非洲,沙哈拉南部,在底端。
But when I split it, when I split it into country bubbles, the size of the bubbles here is the population. Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different. There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa. And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian, Arab world. Now all your different departments. East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries. And here were are. We have a continuum in the world. We cannot put it into two parts.
但是当我把他们分开,当我把他们分成 国家的气泡是, 这里气泡的大小的人口。 你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不一样的。 这里在撒哈拉以南非洲有很大的不同。 当我把其他的也分开是。东亚, 阿拉伯世界。 你现在在不同的地区都有不同。 东欧,拉丁美洲,和经合组织国家。 我们在这里。我们有一个连续的世界。 我们不能分成连个部分。
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here, building, building countries. It's Lincoln here, advancing them. It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries. And then it's United States today, up here. And we have countries all this way. Now, this is the important thing of understanding how the world has changed. At this point I decided to make a pause. (Laughter)
这是五月花时代。这是华盛顿时代, 建造国家。 这是林肯,在升级他们。 这是艾森豪威尔将现代化带入了国家。 然后这是今天的美国,在这里上面。 我们是这样创造了国家。 现在是了解世界怎样 变化的关键。 在这里我觉得我需要做一个发言。 (笑)
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world, to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers, for Demographic Health Survey. Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke. This is very serious. It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring during 25 years of the very good methodology for measuring child mortality that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world. (Applause) And it is U.S. government at its best, without advocacy, providing facts, that it's useful for the society. And providing data free of charge on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
这就是我的任务,代表这世界其他国家, 来为美国的纳税人争取一个谢谢, 为了人口健康调查所做的贡献。 许多人还没有意识到 -- 不这不是玩笑。 这很严肃。 在这25年里,依靠 美国的资助,我们有一个 非常好的测量儿童死亡率的方法, 这让我们对世界所发生的事情有一个把握。 (掌声) 而这个美国政府,正在做最大的努力 没有宣传,去提供一些 对社会有用的事实。 也在因特网上提供免费的数据 供世界享用。十分感谢你。
Quite the opposite of the World Bank, who compiled data with government money, tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit, in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way. (Applause) But the people doing that at the World Bank are among the best in the world. And they are highly skilled professionals. It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do. And when it comes to free data and transparency, United States of America is one of the best. And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor. (Laughter) And I'm not paid to come here, no.
世界银行则是在十分的对立面, 用政府和税收的钱来编译数据, 然后又加入一点利润将他们出售, 通过十分没有效率的,古滕贝格的方式。 (掌声) 但是那些在世界银行所工作的人 都是世界上最优秀的。 他们在他们的范围内都是专家。 只是我们希望我们能升级我们的国际方案 去以现代的方法来处理国际问题,就在我们处理的时候。 当这遇到免费和透明的数据时, 美国是最好之一。 而且这不仅仅是从瑞典公共健康教授的口中说出。 (笑) 我不是为钱来到这的,不是。
I would like to show you what happens with the data, what we can show with this data. Look here. This is the world. With income down there and child mortality. And what has happened in the world? Since 1950, during the last 50 years we have had a fall in child mortality. And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this. And we had an increase in income. And the blue former developing countries are mixing up with the former industrialized western world. We have a continuum. But we still have, of course, Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries as we have had, always, in history. And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today about a completely new approach to do it.
我是想来给你们展示数据上发生了什么, 以及我们可以用这些数据来展示什么。 看这里,这是世界。 收入在这里,然后儿童死亡率。 世界发生了什么? 自从1950年,到过去50年里 儿童死亡率有一个下降。 这是靠国家安全局才知道的。 我们在收入上有一个增加。 这些蓝色的发展中国家 和前工业化国家混合在一起。 然后我们继续。但是我们这里还有,那就是,当然了 刚果在上面这里。我们还有以前的 一些贫穷国家,在历史上。 最底层的一亿人口,就如我们当今所听说的一样, 急需一个新的解决方案。
And how fast has this happened? Well, MDG 4. The United States has not been so eager to use MDG 4. But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it, because it's the only child mortality that we can measure. And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year. Let's see what Sweden has done. We used to boast about fast social progress. That's where we were, 1900. 1900, Sweden was there. Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990, though they had lower income. They started very well. They used the aid well. They vaccinated the kids. They get better water. And they reduced child mortality, with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden. I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
这一切发生得有多快呢? 好吧,第4个千年发展目标。 美国政府还不是那么急于 使用第4个千年发展目标。 但是你们那些重要赞助商让我们可以去测量它。 因为那是我们唯一可以测量的儿童死亡率。 我们经常会说每年会下降4个百分点。 让我们来看看瑞典做了什么。 我们曾经吹嘘快速的社会进步。 我们是在,1990. 1990年,瑞典在那里。 和孟加拉国一样的儿童死亡率,1990. 尽管他们是低收入国家。 他们开端不错,他们充分利用国外援助。 他们给小孩提供疫苗。他们有更好的水源。 而且他们降低了儿童死亡率, 以每年4.7个百分点。他们打败了瑞典。 在接下来的16年里瑞典还是一样。
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916, against Egypt, 1990. Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here. They get safe water, they get food for the poor, and they get malaria eradicated. 5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
第二轮,瑞典在1960 对抗1990的埃及。 开始。再一次,美国在这里有一部分原因。 他们有更安全的水,他们给穷人提供食物。 他们根除了疟疾。 5.5个百分点。他们比千年发展目标要快。
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here. Brazil here has amazing social improvement over the last 16 years, and they go faster than Sweden. This means that the world is converging. The middle income countries, the emerging economy, they are catching up. They are moving to cities, where they also get better assistance for that.
这是瑞典的第三个机会,对抗这里的巴西。 这里的巴西在过去16年里 有着奇妙的社会进步. 而且他们比瑞典要快。 那就意味这世界在一体化。 中等收入国家, 那些新兴经济体,他们在赶上来。 他们向城市发展, 那里他们可以等到更好的帮助。
Well the Swedish students protest at this point. They say, "This is not fair, because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics that were not available for Sweden. We have to do real-time competition." Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born. Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden. It's the most tropical country in the world, a marshland on the equator. And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent. But then they started to grow their economy. And they made the social investment. They got away malaria. They got a magnificent health system that beat both the U.S. and Sweden. We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden! (Applause)
这时瑞典人在抗议。 他们说到,“”这不公平, 因为这些国家有疫苗和抗生素, 那时的瑞典还没有。 我们必须做一次同时间的竞赛。” 好,我这里有新加坡,我出生的那一年。 新加坡的儿童死亡率是瑞典的两倍。 那是世界上最热带的国家。 一个在赤道沼泽地。 开始了。他们独立花了一点时间。 但是他们开始开展他们的经济。 他们他们开始社会投资。他们摆脱了疟疾。 他们有了一个非常起眼的健康系统 那同时打败了美国和瑞典。 我们从来没有想到他们会赢瑞典! (掌声)
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals. These yellow are just about to be doing this. These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved. Not simplistic extrapolation. We have to really find a way of supporting those countries in a better way. We have to respect the middle income countries on what they are doing. And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
这些绿色国家都在达成着千年发展计划。 这些黄色的也正准备着手开始。 这些红色的国家则没有做什么,而且他们的政策需要改善。 不是简单的推断。 我们真的必须找一个能更好的 去支持这些国家的方法。 我们必须去尊重这些发展中国家 所做的事情。 我们也必须给我们的世界观有一个客观的基础。
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries. The blue is Africa. The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected. You see the tragedy in South Africa there. About 20 percent of the adult population are infected. And in spite of them having quite a high income, they have a huge number of HIV infected. But you also see that there are African countries down here. There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa. There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa that has the same level as Sweden and United States. And there are others who are extremely high.
这是人均收入,这是国家的艾滋病数。 蓝色的是非洲。 气泡的大小代表着有多少人被艾滋感染。 你可以在那看到在南非的悲剧。 大概有20%的成年人口被感染了。 尽管他们有一个很高的收入 他们还是有巨大的被艾滋感染数量。 但你也可以看到有一些非洲国家在底下这里。 在非洲没有所谓的大规模艾滋流行这样。 这里有个数字,非洲的5-10国家 有着和瑞典和美国同样的水平。 而这里也有那些数目十分高的国家。
And I will show you that what has happened in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy in Africa and a good governance, Botswana. They have a very high level. It's coming down. But now it's not falling, because there, with help from PEPFAR, it's working with treatment. And people are not dying. And you can see it's not that easy, that it is war which caused this. Because here, in Congo, there is war. And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
而我要来给你们看看 非洲最好的国家之一,拥有着最活跃的经济体 和一个非常好的治理的博茨瓦纳,所发生的一切。 他们有一个十分高的感染水平。正在下降中。 但不是那么剧烈。 因为那里,正在接受紧急计划(PEPFAR)的帮组 正在接受治疗。所以受感染的人就不会死亡。 就如你看到的,那并不简单。 那是战争造成这个的。 因为这里,在刚果,这里有战争。 这里,在赞比亚,这里有和平。
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher. If I split Tanzania in its income, the richer 20 percent in Tanzania has more HIV than the poorest one. And it's really different within each country. Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different. And this is the situation you see. It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation, probably of concurrent sexual partnership among part of the heterosexual population in some countries, or some parts of countries, in south and eastern Africa.
但这里没有经济。更富有的国家有更高的水平。 如果我把坦桑尼亚的收入分开。 坦桑尼亚更富有的20%人 要比贫穷的人感染更多的艾滋。 而且每个国家都不一样。 看看肯尼亚的一些省份。他们也十分不同。 这就是你所看到的状况。 这不是深度贫穷。这是特殊的情况。 大概是在某些国家,或国家的某些部分里 在南非或东非 在异性恋人口中 多重性伴侣所造成的。
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue. Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place, in the way it can be done there. So to just end up, there are things of suffering in the one billion poorest, which we don't know. Those who live beyond the cellphone, those who have yet to see a computer, those who have no electricity at home.
不要说是非洲。不要搞的种族问题上。 这是地方问题。并在每个地方实行 当地可以接受的预防措施。 我要这样来结尾。 这里有我们所不知道的 1亿正在受贫困折磨的人口。 那些生活在没有手机, 或没见过电脑, 或家里没有电能的人。
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years elucidating in Africa. It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation. It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s. It's similar to other nutritional diseases. It will never affect a rich person.
这就是叫孔佐(Konzo)的疾病,我花了20年 在非洲来调查。 这是因为在饥荒的情况下,快速处理有毒木薯根。 这和在30年代密西西比的糙皮病相似。 这和其他的营养疾病相似。 它不会感染富有的人。
We have seen it here in Mozambique. This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania. You never heard about the disease. But it's much more than Ebola that has been affected by this disease. Cause crippling throughout the world. And over the last two years, 2,000 people has been crippled in the southern tip of Bandundu region. That used to be the illegal diamond trade, from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola. That has now disappeared, and they are now in great economic problem. And one week ago, for the first time, there were four lines on the Internet.
我们在莫桑比克已经看到了。 这正在莫桑比克流行着。这也在南坦桑尼亚流行着。 你从来没有听过这种疾病。 但是这比伊波拉所 感染的人还要多。 这造成了世界各地的瘫痪。 而在过去的两年时间里 在班登达地区南端 已经有2000人已经瘫痪了。 这里原来是非法钻石交易地。 从[不清楚]统治的安哥拉地区 在那里现在已经消失了。 他们现在则有一个更大的经济问题。 就在一个星期前,第一次, 这里有4条上线的因特网。
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies and the great capacity of people in the middle income countries and in peaceful low income countries. There is still mystery in one billion. And we have to have more concepts than just developing countries and developing world. We need a new mindset. The world is converging, but -- but -- but not the bottom billion. They are still as poor as they've ever been. It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower. But you will remain one of the most important superpowers, and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be. And this institution will have a very crucial role, not for United States, but for the world. So you have a very bad name, State Department. This is not the State Department. It's the World Department. And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much. (Applause)
不要对新兴经济体的成就 和在中等收入国家人民的 能力而疑惑, 而在和平宁静的低收入国家中。 这里还有在1亿人中的谜题。 我们必须有着超越发展中国家和 发展中世界的概念。 我们需要一个新的态度。世界正在融合。 但是,但是,但不是那底层的一亿。 他们仍然和以前一样贫穷。 这并不是可持续的。这也不会围绕着一个超级力量。 但是你会继续扮演着 最重要的的超级力量之一。 也是从时间上看来最有希望的超级力量, 而且在这种局势下 将会有一个非常关键的角色, 不是美国,而是全世界。 所以你们有一个十分差劲的名字, 国家部门,这不是国家部门。 这是世界部门。 而且我们对你们给予重望。十分感谢你们。 (掌声)