I'm going to talk about your mindset. Does your mindset correspond to my dataset? (Laughter) If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
Pričaću o vašem načinu razmišljanja. Da li vaš način razmišljanja odgovara mojim podacima? (Smeh) Ako ne, jedno ili drugo mora da se unapredi, zar ne?
When I talk to my students about global issues, and I listen to them in the coffee break, they always talk about "we" and "them." And when they come back into the lecture room I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"? "Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say. "We learned it in college." And what is the definition then? "The definition? Everyone knows," they say.
Kada pričam sa mojim studentima o globalnim pitanjima, i slušam ih na pauzi za kafu, uvek spominju "nas" i "njih". I kada se vrate u učionicu pitam ih: "Kako mislite 'mi' i 'oni'?". "O, pa lako je. Zapadni svet i svet u razvoju," kažu oni. "Naučili smo na koledžu." "I šta je onda definicija?" "Definicija? Svi znaju", kažu oni.
But then you know, I press them like this. So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy. Western world is a long life in a small family. Developing world is a short life in a large family." And I like that definition, because it enabled me to transfer their mindset into the dataset. And here you have the dataset. So, you can see that what we have on this axis here is size of family. One, two, three, four, five children per woman on this axis. And here, length of life, life expectancy, 30, 40, 50. Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
Ali tada, znate, pritisnem ih ovako. I jedna devojka je rekla, vrlo pametno, "Lako je. Zapadni svet je dug život i mala porodica, a svet u razvoju je kratak život i velika porodica." I sviđa mi se ta definicija, jer mi omogućava da prenesem njihovo mišljenje u podatke. I imate ovde podatke. I vidite da imamo na ovoj osi veličinu porodice. Jedno, dva, tri, četiri, petoro dece po ženi, na ovoj osi. I ovde dužina života, očekivana dužina života, 30, 40, 50. Upravo ono što su studenti rekli da je njihov koncept o svetu.
And really this is about the bedroom. Whether the man and woman decide to have small family, and take care of their kids, and how long they will live. It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know, you can live long. And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted -- the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here, which had large families and short life. Developing world. And we had one set of countries up there which was the western world. They had small families and long life.
I ovo je u stvari o spavaćoj sobi. Da li muškarac i žena odluče da imaju malu porodicu, i da se brinu o deci, i koliko dugo će da žive. Sve je o kupatilu i kuhinji. Ako imate sapun, vodu i hranu, znate, duže živite. I studenti su bili u pravu, zar ne? Svet se sastoji iz jedne grupe zemalja ovde koje imaju velike porodice i kratak život. Svet u razvoju. I imali smo jedan skup zemalja koji je Zapadni svet. Imaju male porodice i dug život.
And you are going to see here the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime. Then the developing countries applied soap and water, vaccination. And all the developing world started to apply family planning. And partly to USA who help to provide technical advice and investment. And you see all the world moves over to a two child family, and a life with 60 to 70 years.
I videćete ovde neverovatnu stvar koja se desila u svetu za vreme mog života. I onda su zemlje u razvoju primenile sapun i vodu, vakcinisanje. I svet u razvoju je počeo da primenjuje planiranje porodice. I delom zbog SAD-a koji su pomogle tehnološkim savetima i investicijama. I vidite da se svet kreće prema porodicama sa dvoje dece, i životu od 60-70 godina.
But some countries remain back in this area here. And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here. We have Liberia. We have Congo. So we have countries living there. So the problem I had is that the worldview that my students had corresponds to reality in the world the year their teachers were born. (Laughter) (Applause)
Ali neke zemlje ostaju ovde. I vidite da je još uvek tu Avganistan. Imamo Liberiju. Kongo. Znači imamo zemlje koje žive tu. Pa je problem koji sam imao taj da je pogled na svet koji su imali moji studenti, odgovarao realnosti godine u kojoj su njihovi profesori rođeni. (Smeh) (Aplauz)
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world. I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week, and I could see the wrong concept even active people in United States had, that they didn't realize the improvement of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States. Look here when I move them forward. Here we go. They catch up. There's Mexico. It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions. There was less than five percent of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this. This great nation, Mexico, has the problem that arms are coming from North, across the borders, so they had to stop that, because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
I u stvari, kada smo puštali ovo u svetu - Bio sam na Konferenciji Globalnog Zdravlja u Vašingtonu, prošle nedelje, i video sam da pogrešan koncept i dalje imaju aktivni ljudi u SAD-u. Nisu shvatili da napredak u Meksiku, i Kini, u poređenju sa SAD-om. Pogledajte kada pomerim unapred. Idemo. Stižu ih. Evo ga Meksiko. On je na nivou sa SAD-om u ove dve socijalne dimenzije. Manje od pet odsto specijalista u globalnom zdravlju je bilo svesno ovoga. Ova velika nacija, Meksiko, ima problem da oružje dolazi sa severa, preko granice. I morali su da zaustave to. Jer imaju čudan odnos sa SAD-om, znate.
But if I would change this axis here, I would instead put income per person. Income per person. I can put that here. And we will then see a completely different picture. By the way, I'm teaching you how to use our website, Gapminder World, while I'm correcting this, because this is a free utility on the net. And when I now finally got it right, I can go back 200 years in history. And I can find United States up there. And I can let the other countries be shown. And now I have income per person on this axis. And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time. And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years, on par with Afghanistan today.
Ali ako bih promenio ovu osu ovde, vidite, i na primer stavio dohodak po osobi, dohodak po osobi, mogu da stavim tu. I videćemo potpuno drugačiju sliku. I usput, učim vas kako da koristite naš sajt, Gapminder World, dok ispravljam ovo jer je besplatno na netu. I sada kada sam to namestio, mogu da idem 200 godina unazad. I mogu da nađem SAD ovde gore. I mogu da pokažem i druge zemlje. I sada imam dohodak po osobi na ovoj osi. I SAD su imale oko 2 000 dolara, u to vreme. I očekivana dužina života je bila oko 35 do 40 godina, isto kao Avganistan danas.
And what has happened in the world, I will show now. This is instead of studying history for one year at university. You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing. (Laughter) You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe, and the yellow one, which is the United States, they get richer and richer and also start to get healthier and healthier. And this is now 100 years ago, where the rest of the world remains behind. Here we come. And that was the influenza. That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it? It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy. And then we come up. Not until independence started.
I šta se desilo sa svetom, pokazaću sada. Ovo je umesto studiranja istorije godinu dana na fakultetu. Gledajte me jedan minut i videćete celu stvar. (Smeh) Vidite kako braon mehurići, a to je zapadna Evropa, i žuti, što je SAD, sve su bogatiji i počinju da budu sve zdraviji. I ovo je pre 100 godina gde ostatak sveta zaostaje. I ovde smo. Ovo je bio grip. Zato smo toliko uplašeni od gripa, zar ne? I dalje se pamti. Pad očekivane dužine života. I onda se podigne. Ali ne pre nezavisnosti.
Look here You have China over there, you have India over there, and this is what has happened. Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there? Mexico is not at all on par with the United States, but they are quite close. And especially, it's interesting to see China and the United States during 200 years, because I have my oldest son now working for Google, after Google acquired this software. Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet for many years and developed this. And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing. So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know? And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing, in China, he got a long-term perspective. Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google, he should develop by quarter, or by half-year. Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
Pogledajte ovde Kinu, imate Indiju ovde, i evo šta se desilo. Primećujete da imamo Meksiko ovde gore? Meksiko uopšte nije uz SAD. Ali su blizu. I dosta je interesantno videti Kinu i SAD, tokom 200 godina. Jer moj najstariji sin sada radi za Google, nakon što je Google kupio ovaj program. U stvari ovo je dečija radna snaga. Moj sin u njegova žena su bili u senci mnogo godina i razvili su ovo. I moj najmlađi sin, koji je studirao kineski u Pekingu, pa oni imaju dve različite perspektive, znate? I moj sin, najmlađi koji je studirao u Pekingu, u Kini, dobio je dugotrajnu perspektivu. Dok moj stariji sin, koji radi za Google, on bi razvijao za četvrtinu ili polovinu godine. Ili, Google je baš velikodušan, tako da ima jednu ili dve godine.
But in China they look generation after generation because they remember the very embarrassing period, for 100 years, when they went backwards. And then they would remember the first part of last century, which was really bad, and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward. But this was 1963. Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China, and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started this amazing move forward.
Ali u Kini posmatraju generacije jer se sećaju sramotnog perioda od 100 godina kad su išli unazad. Ali bi oni zapamtili prvi deo prošlog veka, koji je stvarno bio loš. I posmatraćemo ovaj takozvani "veliki skok unapred". Ali ovo je bila 1963. Mao Tse-Tung je na kraju ipak doneo zdravlje u Kini. I onda je umro. I onda je Deng Sjaoping neverovatno krenuo napred.
Isn't it strange to see that the United States first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich? Whereas China could get healthy much earlier, because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition, and then also benefits of penicillin and vaccines and family planning. And Asia could have social development before they got the economic development. So to me, as a public health professor, it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
Nije li čudno videti kako su SAD prvo razvile ekonomiju, i postepeno se bogatile. Dok je Kina mogla mnogo ranije da postane zdrava. Jer su oni primenili znanje iz obrazovanja, ishrane, i potom koristi od penicilina i vakcina, i planiranje porodice. I Azija je mogla da se socijalno razvije pre nego što se ekonomski razvila. Pa meni, kao profesoru javnog zdravlja, nije čudno da se ove zemlje sada brzo razvijaju.
Because what you see here, what you see here is the flat world of Thomas Friedman, isn't it. It's not really, really flat. But the middle income countries -- and this is where I suggest to my students, stop using the concept "developing world." Because after all, talking about the developing world is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
Jer ono što vidite ovde je ravna zemlja Tomasa Fridmana. Zar ne? Nije stvarno ravna. Ali zemlje sa prosečnim primanjima, i ovde preporučujem mojim studentima da prestanu da koriste koncept "zemalja u razvoju". Jer ipak, priča o svetu u razvoju je kao da imamo dva poglavlja u istoriji SAD-a.
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama, and the other is about the past, where you cover everything from Washington to Eisenhower. Because Washington to Eisenhower, that is what we find in the developing world. We could actually go to Mayflower to Eisenhower, and that would be put together into a developing world, which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way, which have great entrepreneurs, but also have the collapsing countries.
Poslednje poglavlje je o sadašnjosti i predsedniku Obami, a drugo je o prošlosti, gde je pokriveno sve, od Vašingtona do Ajzenhauera. Jer od Vašingtona do Ajzenhauera, to je ono što nalazimo u zemljama u razvoju. Zapravo idemo od Mejflauera do Ajzenhauera, i to bi bilo stavljeno u svetu u razvoju, koji razvija gradove na neverovatan način, koji ima neverovatnepreduzetnike, ali takođe zemlje u raspadu.
So, how could we make better sense about this? Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could look at income distribution. This is the income distribution of peoples in the world, from $1. This is where you have food to eat. These people go to bed hungry. And this is the number of people. This is $10, whether you have a public or a private health service system. This is where you can provide health service for your family and school for your children, and this is OECD countries: Green, Latin America, East Europe. This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
Ali kako da bolje razumemo ovo? Jedan način je da pokušamo da vidimo ako možemo da pogledamo raspodelu dohotka. Ovo je raspodela dohotka naroda u svetu, od jednog dolara, ovde imate hranu. Ovi ljudi idu u krevet gladni. I ovo je broj ljudi. Ovo je 10 dolara, nebitno da li imate javni ili privatni zdrastveni sistem. vde možete da obezbedite zdrastvenu uslugu za porodicu, i školu za decu. I ovo su zemlje OECD-a. Zeleno, Latinska America, istočna Evropa. Ovo je Istočna Azija.
And this is how the world changed.
I svetlo plavo je Južna Azija.
It changed like this. Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia? And it goes over here? And I come now, into projections, but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because -- (Laughter) that's where the projections are not valid any longer. Probably the world will do this. and then it will continue forward like this. But more or less, this is what will happen, and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
I ovako se svet promenio. Promenio se ovako. Vidite kako raste? Kako stotine miliona i milijardi izlaze iz siromaštva u Aziji? I idu ovde. I sada ulazim u projekcije. I sada moram da stanem ovde kod Leman braće, znate. (Smeh) Jer projekcije tamo nisu više validne. Verovatno će svet uraditi ovo, i onda će se ovako nastaviti. Ali manje-više će se ovo desiti. I imamo svet na koji više ne možemo da gledamo kao podeljen.
We have the high income countries here, with the United States as a leading power; we have the emerging economies in the middle, which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout; and we have the low income countries here. Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes, they have been saving, you know, over the last decade. And here we have the low income countries where entrepreneurs are. And here we have the countries in collapse and war, like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur. We have all this at the same time.
Imamo ovde zemlje sa velikim primanjima, sa SAD kao vodećom silom. Imamo u sredini zemlje koje se razvijaju, koje dosta finansijski obezbeđuju pomoć. I ovde imamo zemlje sa malim primanjima. Da, činjenica je da odavde dolazi novac. Štedeli su, znate, poslednjih 10 godina. I ovde imamo zemlje sa malim primanjima gde su preduzetnici. I ovde imamo zemlje u kolapsu i ratu, kao Avganistan, Somalija, deo Konga, Darfur. Sve ovo imamo istovremeno.
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened in the developing world. Because it's so different, what has happened there. And that's why I suggest a slightly different approach of what you would call it. And you have huge differences within countries also. I heard that your departments here were by regions. Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Arab states, East Europe, Latin America, and OECD. And on this axis, GDP. And on this, heath, child survival, and it doesn't come as a surprise that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
Zato je problematično opisati šta se desilo u svetu u razvoju. Jer to što se desilo je tako različito. I zato sam predložio malo drugačiji prilaz od onoga kako biste ste već nazvali. I imate velike razlike i unutar zemalja. Odseci ovde su regioni. Imate ovde podsaharsku Afriku, južnu Aziju, istočnu Aziju, arapske zemlje, istočnu Evropu, Latinsku Ameriku, i OECD. I na ovoj osi je dohodak. I na ovoj, zdravlje, koliko dece preživi. I nije čudno da je Afrika, južno od Sahara, na dnu.
But when I split it, when I split it into country bubbles, the size of the bubbles here is the population. Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different. There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa. And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian, Arab world. Now all your different departments. East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries. And here were are. We have a continuum in the world. We cannot put it into two parts.
Ali ako podelim na mehuriće, veličina mehurića je populacija. I vidite da su Sijera Leone i Mauricijus potpuno različiti. Postoji takva razlika unutar podsaharske Afrike. I mogu da razdvojim druge. Ovde je južna Azija, arapski svet. Sada različiti odseci, istočna Evropa, Latinska Amerika, i OECD zemlje. I ovde smo. Imamo kotinuum u svetu. Ne možemo da podelimo.
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here, building, building countries. It's Lincoln here, advancing them. It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries. And then it's United States today, up here. And we have countries all this way. Now, this is the important thing of understanding how the world has changed. At this point I decided to make a pause. (Laughter)
Ovde dole je Mejfauer. Ovde je Vašington, zemlje koje se grade. Ovde je Linkoln, koji ih unapređuje. Ovo Ajzenhauer donosi novitete u zemlje. I ovo su SAD, gore. I tako imamo zemlje svuda. I sada bitna stvar razumevanja kako se svet promenio. U ovom momentu sam odlučio da napravim pauzu. (Smeh)
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world, to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers, for Demographic Health Survey. Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke. This is very serious. It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring during 25 years of the very good methodology for measuring child mortality that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world. (Applause) And it is U.S. government at its best, without advocacy, providing facts, that it's useful for the society. And providing data free of charge on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
I moj je zadatak, u ime ostatka sveta, da prenesem zahvalnost američkim poreskim obaveznicima, za Demografsko zdrastveno istaživanje. Mnogi nisu svesni da - ovo nije šala. Ovo je veoma ozbiljno. Zahvaljujući SAD-ovom stalnom sponzorstvu tokom 25 godina i dobroj metodologiji za merenje smrtnosti dece, možemo da shvatimo šta se dešava u svetu. (Aplauz) I to vlada SAD-a u svom najboljem svetlu, bez zastupanja, daje činjenice koje su korisne za društvo. I daje besplatne podatke na internetu, da ih svet koristi. Hvala mnoog.
Quite the opposite of the World Bank, who compiled data with government money, tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit, in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way. (Applause) But the people doing that at the World Bank are among the best in the world. And they are highly skilled professionals. It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do. And when it comes to free data and transparency, United States of America is one of the best. And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor. (Laughter) And I'm not paid to come here, no.
Potpuno suprotno od Svetske Banke, koja je sastavila podatke sa vladinim novcem, od poreza, i onda ih prodaje za malo profita, na veoma neefikasni način, Gutenbergov način. (Aplauz) Ali ljudi koji to rade u svetskoj banci su među najboljima u svetu. I veoma su vešti profesionalci. Samo bismo voleli da unapredimo naše internacionalne agencije kako bi se bavile svetom na moderan način, kao što mi radimo. I kada su u pitanju besplatni podaci i transparentnost, SAD je jedna od najboljih. I to jednom švedskom profesoru javnog zdravlja nije lako da kaže. (Smeh) I nisam plaćen da dođem ovde, ne.
I would like to show you what happens with the data, what we can show with this data. Look here. This is the world. With income down there and child mortality. And what has happened in the world? Since 1950, during the last 50 years we have had a fall in child mortality. And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this. And we had an increase in income. And the blue former developing countries are mixing up with the former industrialized western world. We have a continuum. But we still have, of course, Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries as we have had, always, in history. And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today about a completely new approach to do it.
Želim da vam pokažem šta se dešava sa podacima, šta možemo da pokažemo sa ovim podacima. Pogledajte ovde. Ovo je svet. Sa primanjima dole, i smrtnosti dece. I šta se desilo sa svetom. Od 1950, tokom poslednjih 50 godina, imamo pad u smrtnosti dece. I DHS omogućuje ovo. I imamo porast u primanjima. I plave bivše zemlje u razvoju se mešaju sa bivšim industrijalizovanim zapadnim zemljama. I imamo kontinuum. Ali i dalje imamo, naravno, Kongo, ovde gore. I dalje imamo siromašne zemlje kako smo i uvek imali kroz istoriju. I to je donjih milijardu, gde smo čuli, danas, o kompletno novom pristupu.
And how fast has this happened? Well, MDG 4. The United States has not been so eager to use MDG 4. But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it, because it's the only child mortality that we can measure. And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year. Let's see what Sweden has done. We used to boast about fast social progress. That's where we were, 1900. 1900, Sweden was there. Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990, though they had lower income. They started very well. They used the aid well. They vaccinated the kids. They get better water. And they reduced child mortality, with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden. I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
I koliko brzo se ovo desilo? Pa MDG 4. SAD nisu baš željne da koriste MDG 4. Ali vi ste bili glavni sponzori koji su nam omogućili da to izmerimo. Jer možemo da merimo samo smrtnost dece. I govorili smo da bi palo za 4 procenta za godinu dana. Da vidimo šta je Švedska uradila. Nekad smo se hvalili brzim socijalnim napretkom. Ovde smo bili 1900. U 1900, Švedska je bila ovde. Ista smrtnost dece kao što je Bangladeš imao 1990, iako su imali manja primanja. Lepo su počeli. Dobro su iskoristili zdrastvenu pomoć. Vakcinisali su decu, imaju bolju vodu. Smanjili su smrtnost dece na neverovatnih 4,7% godišnje. Pobedili su Švedsku.
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916, against Egypt, 1990. Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here. They get safe water, they get food for the poor, and they get malaria eradicated. 5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
Pustio sam Švedsku istih 16 godina. Druga runda je Švedska 1916, protiv Egipta 1990. Idemo. Još jednom je SAD deo razloga ovde. Nabavili su bezbednu vodu. Nabavili su hranu za siromašne. I iskorenili su malariju. 5,5 posto, brži su od milenijumskog razvojnog cilja.
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here. Brazil here has amazing social improvement over the last 16 years, and they go faster than Sweden. This means that the world is converging. The middle income countries, the emerging economy, they are catching up. They are moving to cities, where they also get better assistance for that.
I treća šansa za Švedsku, protiv Brazila. I Brazil ovde ima neverovatan socijalni napredak tokom poslednjih 16 godina. I idu brže od Švedske. To znači da svet ide ka jednog tački. Zemlje sa srednjim primanjima, ekonomije u razvoju, one stižu. Sele se u gradove, gde će dobiti isto bolju podršku.
Well the Swedish students protest at this point. They say, "This is not fair, because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics that were not available for Sweden. We have to do real-time competition." Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born. Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden. It's the most tropical country in the world, a marshland on the equator. And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent. But then they started to grow their economy. And they made the social investment. They got away malaria. They got a magnificent health system that beat both the U.S. and Sweden. We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden! (Applause)
Švedski studenti u ovom trenutku protestuju. Oni kažu, "Ovo nije fer, jer su ove zemlje imale vakcine i antibiotike koji nisu bile dostupne Švedskoj. Moramo da napravimo takmičenje u realnom vremenu." OK. Dajem vam Singapur, godine koje sam ja rođen. Singapur je imao dva puta veću smrtnost dece nego Švedska. To je najtropskija zemlja u svetu. Močvara na ekvatoru. Idemo. Trebalo im je malo vremena da postanu nezavisni, ali onda su počeli da razvijaju ekonomiju. I socijalno su investirali. Otarasili su se malarije. Dobili su neverovatan zdrastveni sistem koji je pobedio i SAD i Švedsku. Nikad nismo mislili da će pobediti Švedsku. (Smeh)
(Aplauz)
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals. These yellow are just about to be doing this. These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved. Not simplistic extrapolation. We have to really find a way of supporting those countries in a better way. We have to respect the middle income countries on what they are doing. And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
Sve ove zelene zemlje postižu milenijumske razvojne ciljeve. Ove žute su blizu toga. Ove crvene koje to ne rade, i politika mora da se poboljša. Ne baš jednostavno predviđanje. Stvarno moramo da nađemo način da podržimo ove zemlje na bolji način. Moramo da poštujemo ono što zemlje sa srednjim primanjima rade. I moramo da podacima podržimo naš pogled na svet.
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries. The blue is Africa. The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected. You see the tragedy in South Africa there. About 20 percent of the adult population are infected. And in spite of them having quite a high income, they have a huge number of HIV infected. But you also see that there are African countries down here. There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa. There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa that has the same level as Sweden and United States. And there are others who are extremely high.
Ovo je dolar po osobi. Ovo je HIV u zemljama. Plavo je Afrika. Veličina mehura je koliko ljudi je inficirano HIV-om. Vidite tragediju u Južnoj Africi. Oko 20 odsto odraslih je inficirano. I uprkos njihovim velikim primanjima imaju veliki broj zaraženih HIV-om. Ali isto vidite da su afričke zemlje ovde dole. Ne postoji tako nešto kao HIV epidemija u Africi. Postoji broj, pet, 10 afričkih zemalja su istog nivoa kao Švedska i SAD. I ima onih koje su ekstremno visoke.
And I will show you that what has happened in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy in Africa and a good governance, Botswana. They have a very high level. It's coming down. But now it's not falling, because there, with help from PEPFAR, it's working with treatment. And people are not dying. And you can see it's not that easy, that it is war which caused this. Because here, in Congo, there is war. And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
I pokazaću vam šta se desilo u jednoj od najboljih zemalja, sa jednom od najživljih ekonomija u Africi, i sa dobrom vladom, Bocvanom. Imali su veoma visok nivo. Snižava se. Ali sada ne pada. Jer tamo, uz pomoć PEPFAR-a terapija funkcioniše. I ljudi ne umiru. I vidite da nije lako, to je rat prouzrokovao. Jer ovde, u Kongu, je rat. I ovde, u Zambiji, je mir.
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher. If I split Tanzania in its income, the richer 20 percent in Tanzania has more HIV than the poorest one. And it's really different within each country. Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different. And this is the situation you see. It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation, probably of concurrent sexual partnership among part of the heterosexual population in some countries, or some parts of countries, in south and eastern Africa.
I nije u pitanju ekonomija. Bogatije zemlje imaju malo više. I ako podelim Tanzaniju u prihodima, bogatijih 20 odsto u Tanzaniji imaju više HIV-a od najsiromašnijih. I stvarno je drugačije unutar zemlje. Pogledajte provincije Kenije. Veoma su različite. I ovo je situacija koju vidite. Nije duboko siromaštvo. Specifična je situacija. Verovatno zbog više seksualnih partnera među heteroseksualnom populacijom u nekim zemljama ili nekim delovima zemlje u južnoj i istočnoj Africi.
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue. Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place, in the way it can be done there. So to just end up, there are things of suffering in the one billion poorest, which we don't know. Those who live beyond the cellphone, those who have yet to see a computer, those who have no electricity at home.
Nije u pitanju Afrika, nije u pitanju rasa. Ovo je lokalno pitanje. Radite prevenciju u svakom mestu, na način na koji može tamo da se izvede. I da završim. Milijardu najsiromašnijih pate pate od stvari za koje ne znamo. Oni koji žive bez mobilnog telefona, oni koji tek treba da vide kompjuter, oni koji nemaju struju u kući.
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years elucidating in Africa. It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation. It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s. It's similar to other nutritional diseases. It will never affect a rich person.
Ovo je bolest Konzo, proveo sam 20 godina razjašnjavajući u Africi. Uzrokovana je brzim procesiranjem toksičnih korena kasave, u slučaju gladi. Slično je epidemiji pelagre u Misisipiju, '30-ih godina. Slično je bolestima neuhranjenosti. Nikad neće pogoditi bogatog čoveka.
We have seen it here in Mozambique. This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania. You never heard about the disease. But it's much more than Ebola that has been affected by this disease. Cause crippling throughout the world. And over the last two years, 2,000 people has been crippled in the southern tip of Bandundu region. That used to be the illegal diamond trade, from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola. That has now disappeared, and they are now in great economic problem. And one week ago, for the first time, there were four lines on the Internet.
Videli smo to ovde u Mozambiku. Ovo je epidemija u Mozambiku. Ovo je epidemija u severnoj Tanzaniji. Nikada niste čuli za ovu bolest. Više ljudi je pogođeno ovom bolešću nego ebolom. Uzrokovala je sakćenje širom sveta. I poslednje dve godine 2 000 ljudi je osakaćeno u južnom delu Bandunda regiona. Tu se nekada ilegalno trgovalo dijamantima, iz dela u Angoli gde je dominirala UNITA. Sada je to nestalo. I oni su sada u velikom ekonomskom problemu. I pre jedne nedelje, po prvi put, bile su 4 linije na internetu.
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies and the great capacity of people in the middle income countries and in peaceful low income countries. There is still mystery in one billion. And we have to have more concepts than just developing countries and developing world. We need a new mindset. The world is converging, but -- but -- but not the bottom billion. They are still as poor as they've ever been. It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower. But you will remain one of the most important superpowers, and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be. And this institution will have a very crucial role, not for United States, but for the world. So you have a very bad name, State Department. This is not the State Department. It's the World Department. And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much. (Applause)
Nemojte se buniti progresom ekonomija u razvijanju, i velikih kapaciteta ljudi u zemljama sa srednjim primanjima, i mirnih zemalja sa malim primanjima. I dalje stoji misterija od jedne milijarde. I moramo da imamo više koncepta nego samo zemlje i svet u razvoju. Treba nam novi način razmišljanja. Svet se kreće ka jednoj tački. Ali, ali, ali, ne milijarda na dnu. Još uvek su siromašni kao što su bili. To nije održivo. Ali se to neće desiti oko jedne supermoći. Ali ćete vi ostati jedna od najbitnijih supremoći. I za ubuduće, supermoć u koju se nadamo. I ova institucija će imati ključnu ulogu, ne za SAD, već za svet. Ali imate loše ime, Vlada SAD-a, ali ovo nije Vlada SAD-a. Nego je Vlada Sveta. Imamo veliku nadu u vama. Hvala vam mnogo.