I still remember the day in school when our teacher told us that the world population had become three billion people, and that was in 1960. I'm going to talk now about how world population has changed from that year and into the future, but I will not use digital technology, as I've done during my first five TEDTalks. Instead, I have progressed, and I am, today, launching a brand new analog teaching technology that I picked up from IKEA: this box.
Još uvek se sećam dana u školi kada nam je učiteljica rekla da je svetska populacija dostigla tri milijarde ljudi. A to je bilo 1960. A ja ću sada govoriti o tome kako se svetska populacija menjala od te godine pa sve do u budućnost. Ali neću koristiti digitalnu tehnologiju kao što sam radio u svojih prvih pet TED govora. Umesto toga, ja sam napredovao. I ja, danas, objavljujem sasvim novu analognu tehnologiju za podučavanje koju sam našao u IKEI: ovu kutiju.
This box contains one billion people. And our teacher told us that the industrialized world, 1960, had one billion people. In the developing world, she said, they had two billion people. And they lived away then. There was a big gap between the one billion in the industrialized world and the two billion in the developing world. In the industrialized world, people were healthy, educated, rich, and they had small families. And their aspiration was to buy a car. And in 1960, all Swedes were saving to try to buy a Volvo like this. This was the economic level at which Sweden was. But in contrast to this, in the developing world, far away, the aspiration of the average family there was to have food for the day. They were saving to be able to buy a pair of shoes. There was an enormous gap in the world when I grew up. And this gap between the West and the rest has created a mindset of the world, which we still use linguistically when we talk about "the West" and "the Developing World." But the world has changed, and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
Ova kutija sadrži jednu milijardu ljudi. A naša učiteljica nam je rekla da je industrijalizovani svet, 1960, imao jednu milijardu ljudi. A svet u razvoju, rekla je, imao je dve milijarde ljudi. I oni su onda živeli daleko. Bio je veliki jaz između jedne milijarde industrijalizovanog sveta i dve milijarde sveta u razvoju. U industrijalizovanom svetu, ljudi su bili zdravi, obrazovani, bogati, i imali su male porodice. A njihova ambicija je bila da kupe automobil. I u 1960-im svi Šveđani su štedeli kako bi mogli da kupe Volvo poput ovog. To je bio ekonomski nivo na kome se nalazila Švedska. A suprotno tome, u svetu u razvoju, negde daleko, ambicija prosečne porodice je bila da se prehrane taj dan. I oni su štedeli kako bi mogli da kupe par cipela. Postojao je enorman jaz u svetu kada sam ja odrastao. A taj jaz između Zapada i ostatka sveta je stvorio mentalni sklop sveta koji još uvek lingvistički koristimo kada govorimo o "Zapadu" i "svetu u razvoju". Ali svet se promenio, i odavno je trebalo da se promeni taj mentalni sklop, ta klasifikacija sveta, i da se razume kakav je sada.
And that's what I'm going to show you, because since 1960 what has happened in the world up to 2010 is that a staggering four billion people have been added to the world population. Just look how many. The world population has doubled since I went to school. And of course, there's been economic growth in the West. A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy, so the Western population moved over to here. And now their aspiration is not only to have a car. Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination and they want to fly. So this is where they are today. And the most successful of the developing countries, they have moved on, you know, and they have become emerging economies, we call them. They are now buying cars. And what happened a month ago was that the Chinese company, Geely, they acquired the Volvo company, and then finally the Swedes understood that something big had happened in the world. (Laughter)
A to je ono što ću vam pokazati. Jer od 1960. ono što se do 2010. dogodilo svetu jeste da je vrtoglavih četiri milijarde ljudi dodato svetskoj populaciji. Pogledajte samo koliko. Svetska populacija se udvostručila od kada sam ja išao u školu. I naravno, na Zapadu se dogodio ekonomski rast. Veliki broj preduzeća je pomogao rastu ekonomije, tako se populacija sa zapada pomakla ovde. I sada njihova ambicija nije da samo imaju automobil. Sada žele da provedu praznike negde daleko i žele tamo da lete. Evo gde su danas. A najuspješnije zemlje u razvoju, su se pomakle, takođe. Zovemo ih "nove, rastuće ekonomije". I sada oni kupuju automobile. I ono što se dogodilo pre mesec dana jeste da je kineska kompanija, Geely, preuzela kompaniju Volvo. I konačno su Šveđani shvatili da se nešto veliko desilo u svetu. (Smeh)
So there they are. And the tragedy is that the two billion over here that is struggling for food and shoes, they are still almost as poor as they were 50 years ago. The new thing is that we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here, which are also becoming emerging economies, because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated, and they already also have two to three children per woman, as those [richer also] have. And their aspiration now is, of course, to buy a bicycle, and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also. But this is the world we have today, no longer any gap. But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest, to the very richest over here is wider than ever. But there is a continuous world from walking, biking, driving, flying -- there are people on all levels, and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle. This is the new world we have today in 2010.
Eto tu su oni. I tragedija je što se dve milijarde ovih ovde još uvek bore za hranu i cipele, oni su gotovo jednako siromašni kao što su bili pre 50 godina. Nova stvar je da imamo najveću gomilu milijardi, tri milijarde ovde, koji takođe postaju ekonomije u razvoju, jer su prilično zdravi, relativno dobro obrazovani, i oni takođe imaju dvoje ili troje dece po ženi, kao i oni bogatiji. I njihova ambicija sada je, naravno, da kupe bicikl, a onda bi kasnije želeli da imaju i motor, takođe. Ali to je svet koji imamo danas. Nema više jazova. Ali je razlika između siromašnih ovde, najsiromašnijih, do najbogatijih ovde, veća nego ikada. Međutim postoji kontinuitet u svetu od hodanja, vožnje biciklom, vožnje automobilom do letenja - postoje ljudi na svim nivoima. A većina ljudi je negde u sredini. Ovo je novi svet kakav imamo danas u 2010.
And what will happen in the future? Well, I'm going to project into 2050. I was in Shanghai recently, and I listened to what's happening in China, and it's pretty sure that they will catch up, just as Japan did. All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with one to two or three percent. [But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here. They will start flying. And these lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries, they will also forge forwards economically. And if, but only if, we invest in the right green technology -- so that we can avoid severe climate change, and energy can still be relatively cheap -- then they will move all the way up here. And they will start to buy electric cars. This is what we will find there.
A šta će se dogoditi u budućnosti? Pokušaću da predvidim do 2050. Bio sam u Šangaju nedavno. I slušao sam šta se događa u Kini. I prilično je sigurno da će nas sustići kao što je i Japan učinio. Sve projekcije kažu da će ovi ovde da rastu samo jedan do dva ili tri posto. Ali ovi drugi rastu sa sedam, osam posto. I onda će završiti ovde. Oni će početi da lete. A ove zemlje s nižim ili srednjim primanjima, zemlje u razvoju, one će takođe krenuti ekonomski napred. I ako, ali samo ako, investiramo u prave zelene tehnologije - tako da izbegnemo ozbiljne klimatske promene, i da energija može da bude još uvek relativno jeftina - onda će se oni pomaći skroz ovamo. I oni će početi da kupuju električne automobile. To ćemo pronaći ovde. A šta je sa najsiromašnije dve milijarde?
So what about the poorest two billion? What about the poorest two billion here? Will they move on? Well, here population [growth] comes in because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman, family planning is widely used, and population growth is coming to an end. Here [among the poorest], population is growing. So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades, increase to three billion, and they will thereafter increase to four billion. There is nothing -- but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen -- that can stop this [growth] from happening. Because we already have this [growth] in process. But if, and only if, [the poorest] get out of poverty, they get education, they get improved child survival, they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here, then population growth will stop in 2050. We cannot have people on this level looking for food and shoes because then we get continued population growth.
Šta je sa najsiromašnije dve milijarde ovde? Hoće li se pomaći? Ovde je rast stanovništva jer tu već imamo samo dvoje do troje dece po ženi, planiranje porodice se široko koristi, i populacijski rast se bliži kraju. Ali ovde među najsiromašnijima, populacija raste. Tako će se ove najsiromašnije dve milijarde, u sledeće dve decenije povećati na tri milijarde. I onda će se nakon toga povećati na četiri milijarde. Ne postoji ništa - osim nuklearnog rata kakvog svet još nije video - što može zaustaviti taj rast. Jer je taj rast već u procesu. Ali ako, i jedino ako, najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva, dobiju obrazovanje, smanje smrtnost dece, mogu da kupe bicikl i mobilni i dođu da žive ovde, onda će rast stanovništva stati 2050. Ne možemo da imamo ljude na ovom nivou koji traže hranu i cipele, jer ćemo onda imati stalan rast populacije.
And let me show you why by converting back to the old-time digital technology. Here I have on the screen my country bubbles. Every bubble is a country. The size is population. The colors show the continent. The yellow on there is the Americas; dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe; green is the Middle East and this light blue is South Asia. That's India and this is China. Size is population. Here I have children per woman: two children, four children, six children, eight children -- big families, small families. The year is 1960. And down here, child survival, the percentage of children surviving childhood up to starting school: 60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90, and almost 100 percent, as we have today in the wealthiest and healthiest countries. But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960: one billion Western world here -- high child-survival, small families -- and all the rest, the rainbow of developing countries, with very large families and poor child survival.
I dozvolite da vam pokažem zašto, korišćenjem starinske digitalne tehnologije. Ovde na ekranu imam svoje balone zemalja. Svaki balon je zemlja. Veličina je broj stanovnika. Boje pokazuju kontinente. Žuta predstavlja Amerike; tamno plava Afriku; smeđa je Europa; zelena Bliski istok; a ova svetlo plava je Južna Azija. Ovo je Indija, a ovo je Kina. Veličina je populacija. Ovde imam broj dece po ženi, dvoje dece, četvoro dece, šestoro dece, osmoro dece - velike porodice nasuprot malih porodica. Godina je 1960. I ovde dole, preživljavanje dece, procenat dece koja prežive detinjstvo do početka škole. Šezdeset procenata, 70, 80, 90, i gotovo 100 procenata, kao što imamo danas u najbogatijim i najzdravijim zemljama. Ali pogledajte, ovo je svet o kojem je moj profesor pričao 1960. Jedna milijarda zapadnjaka ovde, mala stopa smrtnosti dece, male porodice. I svi ostali, duga zemalja u razvoju, s velikim porodicama i slabim preživljavanjem dece.
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go. Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing? They get soap, hygiene, education, vaccination, penicillin and then family planning. Family size is decreasing. [When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease, and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East is falling down there [to small families]. Look, Bangladesh catching up with India. The whole emerging world joins the Western world with good child survival and small family size, but we still have the poorest billion. Can you see the poorest billion, those [two] boxes I had over here? They are still up here. And they still have a child survival of only 70 to 80 percent, meaning that if you have six children born, there will be at least four who survive to the next generation. And the population will double in one generation.
Šta se dogodilo? Pokrećem svet. Idemo. Možete li da vidite, kako godine prolaze, preživljavanje dece se povećava? Oni dobijaju sapun, higijenu, obrazovanje, vakcine i penicilin. I onda planiranje porodice. Veličina porodice se smanjuje. Kad dođu do 90 procenata preživljavanja dece, porodice počnu da se smanjuju. I većina arapskih zemalja na Bliskom istoku pada ovde dole do malenih porodica. Pogledajte, Bangladeš sustiže Indiju. Sve rastuće ekonomije u svetu pridružuju se zapadnom svetu s dobrom stopom dece koja preživljavaju i malim porodicama. Ali još uvek imamo milijardu najsiromašnijih. Vidite li milijardu najsiromašnijih, ove dve kutije koje sam imao ovde? Oni su još uvek ovde gore. I oni još uvek imaju stopu preživljavanja dece od samo 70 do 80 posto, što znači da ako imate šestoro dece, najmanje četvoro će preživeti do sledeće generacije. A populacija će se udvostručiti unutar jedne generacije.
So the only way of really getting world population [growth] to stop is to continue to improve child survival to 90 percent. That's why investments by Gates Foundation, UNICEF and aid organizations, together with national government in the poorest countries, are so good; because they are actually helping us to reach a sustainable population size of the world. We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things. Child survival is the new green. It's only by child survival that we will stop population growth. And will it happen? Well, I'm not an optimist, neither am I a pessimist. I'm a very serious "possibilist." It's a new category where we take emotion apart, and we just work analytically with the world. It can be done. We can have a much more just world. With green technology and with investments to alleviate poverty, and global governance, the world can become like this.
Tako da je jedini način za zaustavljanje rasta svetskog stanovništva kontinuirano poboljšavanje stope preživljavanja dece do 90 procenata. Zato su zdravstvene investicije Fondacije Gejts, UNICEF-a i drugih organizacija za pomoć, zajedno s nacionalnim vladama najsiromašnijih zemalja, tako dobre. Jer one nam u stvari pomažu da dosegnemo održivu veličinu svetske populacije. Možemo se zaustaviti na devet milijardi ako uradimo prave stvari. Preživljavanje dece je nova obveza. Jedino kroz preživljavanje dece zaustavićemo rast populacije. A hoće li se to dogoditi? Ja nisam optimista, niti sam pesimista. Ja sam veoma ozbiljni "mogućnoista". To je nova kategorija u kojoj emocije stavljamo na stranu, i jednostavno analitički pristupamo svetu. Može se uraditi. Možemo imati puno pravedniji svet. Sa zelenim tehnologijama i investicijama koje iskorenjuju siromaštvo, i s dobrim globalnim vladanjem, svet može postati ovakav.
And look at the position of the old West. Remember when this blue box was all alone, leading the world, living its own life. This will not happen [again]. The role of the old West in the new world is to become the foundation of the modern world -- nothing more, nothing less. But it's a very important role. Do it well and get used to it.
I pogledajte položaj starog Zapada. Setite se kad je ova plava kutija bila sama, vodeći svet, živeći svoj život. To se neće ponoviti. Uloga starog Zapada u novom svetu je da postane temelj modernog sveta - ništa više, ništa manje. Ali to je jako važna uloga. Radite je dobro i naviknite se na nju.
Thank you very much.
Hvala vam mnogo.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)