I still remember the day in school when our teacher told us that the world population had become three billion people, and that was in 1960. I'm going to talk now about how world population has changed from that year and into the future, but I will not use digital technology, as I've done during my first five TEDTalks. Instead, I have progressed, and I am, today, launching a brand new analog teaching technology that I picked up from IKEA: this box.
Še vedno se spomnim šolskega dne, ko nam je učiteljica povedala, da je na svetu tri milijarde ljudi. To je bilo leta 1960. Govoril bom o tem, kako se je svetovno prebivalstvo spremenilo odtlej in kako se bo v prihodnosti. A ne bom uporabljal digitalne tehnologije, kot sem jo na prvih petih TED predstavitvah. Namesto tega sem napredoval. Zato vam danes predstavljam čisto novo analogno učno tehnologijo, ki sem jo kupil v IKEI: to škatlo.
This box contains one billion people. And our teacher told us that the industrialized world, 1960, had one billion people. In the developing world, she said, they had two billion people. And they lived away then. There was a big gap between the one billion in the industrialized world and the two billion in the developing world. In the industrialized world, people were healthy, educated, rich, and they had small families. And their aspiration was to buy a car. And in 1960, all Swedes were saving to try to buy a Volvo like this. This was the economic level at which Sweden was. But in contrast to this, in the developing world, far away, the aspiration of the average family there was to have food for the day. They were saving to be able to buy a pair of shoes. There was an enormous gap in the world when I grew up. And this gap between the West and the rest has created a mindset of the world, which we still use linguistically when we talk about "the West" and "the Developing World." But the world has changed, and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
V tej škatli je milijarda ljudi. In učiteljica nam je povedala, da ima industrializirani svet, leta 1960, eno milijardo ljudi. V razvijajočem se svetu, je dejala, sta dve milijardi ljudi. Takrat so živeli daleč stran od nas. Velika razlika je med eno milijardo industrializiranega sveta in dvema milijardama sveta v razvoju. V industrializiranemu svetu, so ljudje bili zdravi, izobraženi, bogati, in so imeli majhne družine. Njihova želja je bila kupiti avto. V šestdesetih so vsi Švedi varčevali za takšnega Volvota. To je bila gospodarska raven Švedske. A v nasprotju s tem, v svetu razvoja, daleč stran, je bila glavna želja vsake družine, vsakdanji kruh. Varčevali so za par čevljev. Med nami in njimi je bil ogromen prepad, v času, ko sem odraščal. In ta prepad med Zahodom in ostalimi je ustvaril svetovno mentaliteto, ki je še vedno prisotna v jeziku, ko govorimo o "Zahodu" in "državah v razvoju". A svet se je spremenil in skrajni čas je, da nadgradimo to mentaliteto in predalčkanje sveta ter ga razumeti takšnega, kakršen je.
And that's what I'm going to show you, because since 1960 what has happened in the world up to 2010 is that a staggering four billion people have been added to the world population. Just look how many. The world population has doubled since I went to school. And of course, there's been economic growth in the West. A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy, so the Western population moved over to here. And now their aspiration is not only to have a car. Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination and they want to fly. So this is where they are today. And the most successful of the developing countries, they have moved on, you know, and they have become emerging economies, we call them. They are now buying cars. And what happened a month ago was that the Chinese company, Geely, they acquired the Volvo company, and then finally the Swedes understood that something big had happened in the world. (Laughter)
In to vam bom pokazal. Kajti od leta 1960 pa do danes, se je neverjetnih štiri milijarde ljudi dodalo k svetovnemu prebivalstvu. Kar poglejte kako veliko. Prebivalstvo se je podvojilo, odkar sem hodil v šolo. In seveda se je Zahod gospodarsko razvijal. Veliko podjetij je pomagalo pri tem razvoju, zato se je Zahodna civilizacija pomaknila do tukaj. Njihova želja ni več le avto. Želijo počitnice na oddaljenih krajih in hočejo potovati z letalom. Tukaj smo danes. In tudi najuspešnejše države v razvoju so napredovale, veste. Zdaj jim rečemo gospodarstva v vzponu. In tudi oni zdaj kupujejo avtomobile. Pred enim mesecem je kitajsko podjetje Geely kupilo podjetje Volvo. In takrat so Švedi končno dojeli, da se je zgodila velika sprememba. (Smeh)
So there they are. And the tragedy is that the two billion over here that is struggling for food and shoes, they are still almost as poor as they were 50 years ago. The new thing is that we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here, which are also becoming emerging economies, because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated, and they already also have two to three children per woman, as those [richer also] have. And their aspiration now is, of course, to buy a bicycle, and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also. But this is the world we have today, no longer any gap. But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest, to the very richest over here is wider than ever. But there is a continuous world from walking, biking, driving, flying -- there are people on all levels, and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle. This is the new world we have today in 2010.
Tukaj jih imate. Grozljivo je, da se dve milijardi ljudi še vedno bori za hrano in čevlje, saj so še vedno tako revni, kot so bili pred 50 leti. Novost je v tem, da imamo največji kup, tri milijarde ljudi, ki tudi postajajo gospodarstva v vzponu, saj so dokaj zdravi, relativno dobro izobraženi in že imajo dva do tri otroke na žensko, tako kot bogati. Njihova želja je, seveda, kupiti kolo, kasneje pa bodo hoteli še motor. To je svet, v katerem živimo danes. Nobenega prepada ni več. A razdalja med najrevnejšimi in najbogatejšimi je največja v zgodovini. A svet se neprestano razvija od hoje in kolesarjenja do vožnje in letenja - ljudje smo na vseh nivojih. In večina jih je nekje na sredini. To je današnji svet, v letu 2010.
And what will happen in the future? Well, I'm going to project into 2050. I was in Shanghai recently, and I listened to what's happening in China, and it's pretty sure that they will catch up, just as Japan did. All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with one to two or three percent. [But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here. They will start flying. And these lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries, they will also forge forwards economically. And if, but only if, we invest in the right green technology -- so that we can avoid severe climate change, and energy can still be relatively cheap -- then they will move all the way up here. And they will start to buy electric cars. This is what we will find there.
Kaj nam prinaša prihodnost? Premaknil se bom v leto 2050. Nedavno sem bil v Šanghaju. Poslušal sem, kaj se dogaja na Kitajskem. Prepričan sem, da nas bodo ujeli, tako kot so nas Japonci. Napovedi pravijo, da bo ta milijarda zrasla le za dva ali tri odstotke. Ta druga pa s sedmimi ali osmimi odstotki. Pristali bodo tukaj. Začeli bodo leteti. In te revnejše ali srednje revne države, vzpenjajoče države, se bodo tudi gospodarsko razvile. In če, a samo če, bomo vlagali v pravo zeleno tehnologijo, da se izognemo resnim klimatskim spremembam, in ohranimo energijo relativno poceni, potem se lahko premaknejo sem. Potem bodo kupovali električne avtomobile. To nas čaka tam.
So what about the poorest two billion? What about the poorest two billion here? Will they move on? Well, here population [growth] comes in because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman, family planning is widely used, and population growth is coming to an end. Here [among the poorest], population is growing. So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades, increase to three billion, and they will thereafter increase to four billion. There is nothing -- but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen -- that can stop this [growth] from happening. Because we already have this [growth] in process. But if, and only if, [the poorest] get out of poverty, they get education, they get improved child survival, they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here, then population growth will stop in 2050. We cannot have people on this level looking for food and shoes because then we get continued population growth.
Kaj pa najrevnejši dve milijardi? Dve milijardi revnih tukaj? Se bodo razvili? Tukaj se rast dogaja zato, ker že imajo dva do tri otroke na žensko, družine se načrtujejo, rast pa se ustavlja. Najrevnejše prebivalstvo pa raste. Najrevnejši milijardi bosta v naslednjih desetletjih zrastli na tri milijarde. Kmalu pa bo številka dosegla tudi štiri milijarde. Ničesar ni, razen še nevidene jedrske vojne, kar bi lahko to rast ustavilo. Rast se namreč že dogaja. A le če se najrevnejši izvlečejo iz revščine, dobijo izobrazbo in zmanjšajo smrtnost otrok, če lahko kupijo kolesa in telefone ter pridejo živet sem, potem se bo rast prebivalstva ustavila do leta 2050. Ne moremo si privoščiti ljudi, ki bi še vedno iskali hrano in čevlje, saj se rast prebivalstva tako ne bo ustavila.
And let me show you why by converting back to the old-time digital technology. Here I have on the screen my country bubbles. Every bubble is a country. The size is population. The colors show the continent. The yellow on there is the Americas; dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe; green is the Middle East and this light blue is South Asia. That's India and this is China. Size is population. Here I have children per woman: two children, four children, six children, eight children -- big families, small families. The year is 1960. And down here, child survival, the percentage of children surviving childhood up to starting school: 60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90, and almost 100 percent, as we have today in the wealthiest and healthiest countries. But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960: one billion Western world here -- high child-survival, small families -- and all the rest, the rainbow of developing countries, with very large families and poor child survival.
Naj vam pokažem kako, z vrnitvijo na staromodno digitalno tehnologijo. Na zaslonu lahko vidite države-balončke. Vsak balonček je država, velikost pa predstavlja prebivalstvo. Barve ponazarjajo celine. Rumena barva sta Ameriki, temno modra je Afrika, rjava Evropa, zelena je Srednji Vzhod, svetlo modra pa Južna Azija. To je Indija in to je Kitajska. Velikost predstavlja prebivalstvo. Tukaj so podatki o otrocih na žensko, dva, štirje, šest in osem otrok - primerjava velikih in manjših družin. To je leto 1960. Tu spodaj pa smrtnost otrok, odstotek otrok, ki preživijo otroštvo, do začetka šolanja. 60, 70, 80, 90 odstotkov in skoraj 100 odstotkov, kakršno je stanje v bogatejših in bolj zdravih državah. Poglejte, to je svet, o katerem je govorila učiteljica leta 1960. Zahodni svet z milijardo prebivalcev, nizka smrtnost otrok, manjše družine. In vsi ostali, mavrica držav v razvoju, z velikimi družinami in visoko smrtnostjo otrok.
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go. Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing? They get soap, hygiene, education, vaccination, penicillin and then family planning. Family size is decreasing. [When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease, and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East is falling down there [to small families]. Look, Bangladesh catching up with India. The whole emerging world joins the Western world with good child survival and small family size, but we still have the poorest billion. Can you see the poorest billion, those [two] boxes I had over here? They are still up here. And they still have a child survival of only 70 to 80 percent, meaning that if you have six children born, there will be at least four who survive to the next generation. And the population will double in one generation.
Kaj se je zgodilo? Zagnal bom svet. Vidite, da se smrtnost otrok manjša, ko minevajo leta? Dobijo milo, higieno, izobrazbo, cepiva in penicilin. Družine se načrtujejo in so vedno manjše. Ko porod preživi 90% otrok, se družine manjšajo. Večina arabskih držav na Srednjem Vzhodu pada semkaj, k manjšim družinam. Bangladeš že lovi Indijo. Vsa svetovna gospodarstva v vzponu se pridružijo Zahodnemu svetu, z nizko smrtnostjo otrok in manjšimi družinami. A še vedno imamo revno milijardo. Vidite revno milijardo, dve škatli, ki jih imam tam? Še vedno so tam. Še vedno preživi le okrog 70 do 80 odstotkov otrok, kar pomeni, da na šest novorojenčkov naslednjo generacijo doživijo vsaj štirje. V eni generaciji se bo število ljudi podvojilo.
So the only way of really getting world population [growth] to stop is to continue to improve child survival to 90 percent. That's why investments by Gates Foundation, UNICEF and aid organizations, together with national government in the poorest countries, are so good; because they are actually helping us to reach a sustainable population size of the world. We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things. Child survival is the new green. It's only by child survival that we will stop population growth. And will it happen? Well, I'm not an optimist, neither am I a pessimist. I'm a very serious "possibilist." It's a new category where we take emotion apart, and we just work analytically with the world. It can be done. We can have a much more just world. With green technology and with investments to alleviate poverty, and global governance, the world can become like this.
Edini način, da ustavimo rast prebivalstva, je nižanje smrtnosti otrok, tako da jih preživi vsaj 90 odstotkov. Zato so vlaganja v zdravje Fundacije Gates, UNICEFa in organizacij za pomoč, skupaj z vladami v najrevnejših državah, tako pomembna. Dejansko nam pomagajo doseči velikost prebivalstva, ki jo lahko oskrbujemo. S pravim pristopom se lahko ustavimo pri devetih milijardah. Preživetje otrok je v modi. Le z boljšo stopnjo preživetja otrok lahko ustavimo rast prebivalstva. Pa se bo zgodilo? Nisem optimist, niti pesimist. Sem zelo resen "posibilist". To je nova kategorija, brez čustev, le analitično delo s svetom. Izvedljivo je. Svet je lahko pravičnejši. Z zeleno tehnologijo in vlaganjem v manjšanje revščine ter dobro globalno vlado, lahko svet postane takšen.
And look at the position of the old West. Remember when this blue box was all alone, leading the world, living its own life. This will not happen [again]. The role of the old West in the new world is to become the foundation of the modern world -- nothing more, nothing less. But it's a very important role. Do it well and get used to it.
Poglejte, kje je stari Zahod. Tale modra škatla je bila čisto sama. Vodila je svet, živela sama zase. To se ne bo ponovilo. Vloga starega Zahoda v novem svetu je postati del temeljev modernega sveta - nič več, nič manj. A to je zelo pomembna vloga. Bodite dobri in navadite se tega.
Thank you very much.
Najlepša hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplavz)