Once upon a time, at the age of 24, I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore. I was a guest student during one month of a public health course. And that changed my mindset forever. The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset. It was the brutal realization, the first morning, that the Indian students were better than me.
很久以前 當我24歲的時候 我是班加羅爾聖約翰醫學院的學生 我那是是一個月的交換學生 研讀公共衛生的課程 而那一個月徹底改變了我的心態 課程雖好,但使我心態改變的原因 不是因爲授課内容 而是第一個早上 我殘酷地了解到 印度學生竟然比我還好
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
You see, I was a study nerd. I loved statistics from a young age. And I studied very much in Sweden. I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended. But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter. And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden. They read the textbook twice, or three times or four times. In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
以前的我是個書呆子 從小就喜歡統計學 我在瑞典時也很用功 在班上我一直是前幾名 但是在聖約翰學院,我變成倒數的幾名 印度的學生 都比瑞典的學生還要用功 他們把教科書都唸兩遍 三遍甚至四遍 在瑞典,我們唸完一遍就去玩了
(Laugher)
(笑聲)
And that, to me, that personal experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed. And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever. And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience. It's that realization of someone you meet that really made you change your ideas about the world. It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
對我而言 這樣子的個人體驗 是我人生中第一次 使我固有的心態 被徹底改變 同時我也領悟 或許西方世界將無法 永遠主導全球 我想你們大概都有過類似的經驗 那種遇到某個人卻使你 對這個世界的看法完全改觀 雖然我試著讓它聼起來有趣,但這不是統計學
And I will now, here, onstage, try to predict when that will happen -- that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world, as it used to be, over thousands of years. And I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India, in China, will reach that of the West. And I don't mean the whole economy, because to grow an economy of India to the size of U.K. -- that's a piece of cake, with one billion people. But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person, per month, in India and China, when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
接下來我會 在這個台上 試著來預測 什麽時候,亞洲會再奪回 它的優勢地位 來領導這個世界 如同過去的幾千年那樣 我並會試著 準確地預測出 在哪一年 在印度與中國的個人平均所得 會趕上西方 我不是指總體經濟而言 因爲要讓印度全國的經濟規模 成長到像英國那麽大 對有十億人口的印度而言是很容易的 我想看的是個人平均所得 每一個人,每一個月 在印度和在中國的收入 幾時會跟英國和美國的水準一樣?
But I will start with a historical background. And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know? I will start at 1858. 1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West. That was the year when Queen Victoria was able, for the first time, to communicate with President Buchanan, through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable. And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically. (Laughter) (Applause) And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet, to find the text of the telegram sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria. And it ends like this: "This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
我會先介紹一些歷史背景 我把它掛上來的話你們可以看到我的圖吧? 我從1858年開始 1858年在西方 是有偉大科技進步的一年 在這一年,維多莉亞皇后 有史以來第一次能 跟美國的布坎南總統通訊 他們是透過大西洋底的電報纜來通訊 而且他們也是第一對橫跨大西洋使用"Twitter"的人 (笑聲) (掌聲) 透過網路和 Google 讓我找到了 布坎南回送給維多利亞的電報内容 最後一行說:這個電報 將是一個神奇的工具 可以用來向全世界傳播宗教、文明、自由、和法律。
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom. And we will think about that when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858. Because 1858 was also watershed year in the history of Asia. 1858 was the year when the courageous uprising against the foreign occupation of India was defeated by the British forces. And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
這些話是挺動聽的。但是我很好奇想知道 他說的自由是什麽意思,是誰的自由? 當我們更完整地看1858年的世界的話 我們勢必會再想想。 因爲1858年 在亞洲的歷史上 是個分水嶺 在1858年 勇敢的印度人起義反抗 對抗外來的統治政權 卻被英國軍隊打敗 使得印度又再忍受89年外國勢力的統治
1858 in China was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces. And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty, were allowed to trade freely in China. It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
1858年在中國 英國軍隊打勝了鴉片戰爭 戰後的條約使得外國人 可以自由地在中國從事賣賣 他們用鴉片來買中國的物產
And 1858 in Japan was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S. And they were threatened by those black ships there, that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year. But, Japan, in contrast to India and China, maintained its national sovereignty.
1858年在日本 簽署了哈里斯條約 使得美國佔有貿易優勢 之前一年,那些在東京港出現的黑船 已使日本飽受威脅 但是,跟印度和中國不同的是 日本得以保持國家主權的完整
And let's see how much difference that can make. And I will do that by bringing these bubbles back to a Gapminder graph here, where you can see each bubble is a country. The size of the bubble here is the population. On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar. And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people. And I also bring an innovation here. I have transformed the laser beam into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
我們可以看看這在以後產生了什麽差異 我會用這些泡泡 在Gapminder圖上顯示 每一個泡泡代表的是一個國家 泡泡的大小表示國家人口 在X軸,是換算成美元的人均收入 Y軸表示平均壽命,人民的健康 在這兒,我也帶來了一點創新: 在這個綠色的印度,我已經把雷射光筆 換成環保可回收的式樣了
(Applause)
(掌聲)
And we will see, you know. Look here, 1858, India was here, China was here, Japan was there, United States and United Kingdom was richer over there. And I will start the world like this. India was not always like this level. Actually if we go back into the historical record, there was a time hundreds of years ago when the income per person in India and China was even above that of Europe. But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination, and India had been de-industrialized. And you can see that the countries who were growing their economy was United States and United Kingdom. And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy, and Japan was starting to catch up. India was trying down here. Can you see how it starts to move there? But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan. And Japan is trying to move up there.
我們將開始流覽, 看這裡,1858年的印度在這裡 中國在這裡,日本在那裏 美國,英國 在那裏,他們比較有錢 我從這裡開始世界 印度以前的水準不是一直這樣的 我們如果回頭看看歷史的記載 幾百年前 印度和中國的個人所得 是在歐洲之上的 但在1850年,已有很多年的外國勢力統治 印度的工業生產能力被削減了 你可以看到那些經濟有所成長的國家 是美國及英國 而在世紀末時,他們的國民也更健康了 日本也開始急起直追 印度還停留在下面 你看得到它是如何往那裏移動的嗎? 主權完整對日本來説是很有益的 日本一直往上移動
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better, United Kingdom, United States. But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War. And the First World War, you know, we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here. United Kingdom is going down. And now comes the Spanish flu also. And then after the First World War, they continue up. Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty, India and China are down in the corner. Not much has happened. They have grown their population but not much more. In the 1930's now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war, with lower life expectancy. And the Second World War was really a terrible event, also economically for Japan. But they did recover quite fast afterwards. And we are moving into the new world. In 1947 India finally gained its independence. And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there.
進入新的世紀,國民健康越來越好 英國,美國 但是小心,我們現在接近第一次世界大戰 第一次世界大戰,你也知道 我們會看到很多死亡和經濟問題 英國開始走下坡 現在又有西班牙流感 第一次世界大戰過後,他們持續上升 仍然在外國政權的統治下,沒有獨立主權 印度和中國仍在下面的角落 沒什麽大改變 他們的人口有增加,此外就沒什麽變化 到了1930年,你可以看到 日本在戰爭時期 國民壽命不長 第二次世界大戰對日本來説是一段可怕的經歷 在經濟上也是如此 但戰後他們恢復得相當迅速 接下來我們進入了一個新世界 印度在1947年 終於獲得獨立了 他們終於可以升上國旗,成為一個主權國家 但是他們還是在停留在下面,舉步維艱
(Applause)
(掌聲)
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world. And what happened? What happens in the after independence? You can see that the health started to improve. Children started to go to school. Health services were provided. This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down. It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung. China recovered. Then they said, "Nevermore, stupid central planning." But they went up here, and India was trying to follow. And they were catching up indeed. And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy.
在1949年,我們看到了新中國的誕生 這讓全世界都感到驚訝 之後呢? 新中國成立後發生什麽呢? 你可以看到國民健康開始有進步 孩童開始去學校 開始有醫療設施 而在大躍進時期,中國摔了一大跤 那是毛澤東的計畫經濟 中國恢復了以後,他們就說 “愚蠢的計畫經濟,以後別再搞了” 中國開始往上,印度緊追在後 接著印度開始趕上 兩個國家的國民健康都有所改善 但是經濟所得仍然不高
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left. And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here. And he said, "Doesn't matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice." Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do. And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know. And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy. And the market reformer was successful there. In '92 India follows with a market reform. And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
到1978年毛澤東死了 新的領導人從左邊出現 那是鄧小平 他說:“不管黑貓白貓 只要是會抓老鼠的 就是好貓” 因爲抓老鼠 是這兩隻貓想做的 你可以看到中國和印度 這兩隻貓想要抓到在那裏的老鼠 他們決定不只要發展醫療和教育 也要開始發展經濟 市場改革在那裏也是成功的 1992年,印度也開始了市場改革 他們互相跟得很近 你可以看到印度和中國的相似性 在很多方面,他們之間的相似性大於差異
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
他們還一直往前進。他們最後會趕上嗎?
This is the big question today. There they are today.
這是當今一個大哉問 現在他們在那裏
Now what does it mean that the -- (Applause) the averages there -- this is the average of China. If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already catched up. Shanghai is already there. And it's healthier than the United States. But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there. And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. You see this enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth.
這平均值是什麽意思 (掌聲) 這是中國的平均值 如果我把中國分開來看 上海已經趕上了 上海已經在上頭的那一端 其居民的壽命比美國人還長 但另一方面,貴州,中國最窮的一省 在中國的内陸,還在下面那裏 如果我把貴州分成城市及鄉下來看 貴州鄉下會再往下降 你可以看到,在其快速的經濟發展下 中國境内有極大的貧富不均
And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity, actually, in India. The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big. Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India. Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy. And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai, is forging forward. Now in India, the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states. And that is not a bad thing, in itself. If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center relatively close to where poor people are living.
如果我們也看看印度 你可以看到那是另一種的貧富不均 在地理或巨觀地理上的差異並不大 “北方邦”,印度的最大邦 比起其它邦是比較窮也不健康的 克拉拉邦則領先其他邦 在國民健康上跟美國一樣 在經濟上就差一截 馬哈拉施特拉邦,孟買的所在地 正在往前進 現在在印度,最大的不平均是出現在同一個邦裏面 而不是在兩個邦之間 這並不是件太壞的事 你如果在巨觀地理上有太大的差異 這在長期來説是難以應付的 但你如果在各個區域都有一個經濟成長中心 離窮人們住的地方不遠的話,這就還好。
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States. (Laughter) Oh, they broke my frame. Washington, D.C. went out here. My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this because there is a new leader in Washington who is really concerned about the health system. And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C. is so rich over there but they are not as healthy as Kerala. It's quite interesting, isn't it? (Applause) I can see a business opportunity for Kerala, helping fix the health system in the United States.
看這裡,另一個貧富不均例子在美國 (笑聲) 他們已經把我的框框撐破了 華盛頓特區跑去那裏 我在Gapminder基金會工作的朋友要我把這給大家看 因爲在華盛頓有了一個新領導人 他很關心健保系統 我想我能夠了解,因爲在華盛頓 居民收入已經高到那裏 但是他們比印度克拉拉邦的居民還短命 這不是很有趣嗎? (掌聲) 我幫克拉拉邦找到了一個商機 那就是去整頓美國的健保系統
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
(Applause)
(掌聲)
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there. And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward, you see that in between them and ahead of them, is the whole emerging economies of the world, which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world." You can see that in health and education, a large part of the world population is putting forward, but in Africa, and other parts, as in rural Guizhou in China, there is still people with low health and very low economy. We have an enormous disparity in the world. But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
現在我們來看全球的資料 這兩隻巨貓在這裡,一直往前進 你可以看見,在他們之間 和在他們之前的 都是當今的已開發國家 是湯馬斯·佛里曼(Thomas Friedman)所稱的“平的世界” 你可以看見在很大一部分的世界人口中 教育和經濟都在進步 但在非洲和其他地方 譬如中國貴州的鄉下 仍然有很多人生活貧困、壽命不長 我們的世界有很嚴重的貧富不均 但是大部分在中間的都進步很快
Now, back to my projections. When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph. I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there. And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. And we shall see what will happen with these countries. You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here. Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K. But independence is coming here. Growth is starting, economic reform. Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
現在,回到我的預測路線圖 什麽時候可以趕上?我必須回來用傳統的圖 我把人均所得換到Y軸去 收入低的在下面,高的在上面 時間是1858年 開始 我們看這些國家將發生什麽事 中國在外國政權的統治下 國民所得實際上是降低了,往印度的水準過去 同一時間英國和美國越來越有錢 在二次世界大戰後,美國比英國還有錢 中國在這時獨立了 經濟開始成長,經濟有了改革 成長變更快,再加上國際貨幣組織的挹注 你可以看到2014年預測到達的地方
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?" Look at, look at the United States. Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see it came down there. And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know. So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know. And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.
現在,問題是:什麽時候會追趕上? 來看看美國 你們可以看到泡泡嗎? 這不是我的泡泡 而是金融的泡沫化 那是網路的泡沫化。這是雷曼兄弟的破產 你可以看到他往下掉 這看起來是北岩銀行被政府接管 看起來這些國家並不是一直往上走 他們的成長變得比較緩慢了 對經濟成長有興趣的人 都把目光轉到亞洲
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that. We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place. Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this, until full catch up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies. But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse, can be better. It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
拿日本來做比較。這個是日本上來了 你看,日本是那樣往上走的 我們把日本放進來 我們可以看到:快速的發展 是有可能發生的 你看到日本了嗎? 日本是這樣發展的,一直到完全趕上 接下來還一直跟高所得國家齊頭並進 但是如果真要預測這些國家的未來走勢 我傾向用這個 有可能更好,也有可能更壞 要預測什麽總是難的,尤其是關於未來 可是,一個歷史學家告訴我,預測過去還要更困難
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
I think I'm in a difficult position here. Inequalities in China and India I consider really the big obstacle because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity is what will create a domestic market, what will avoid social instability, and which will make use of the entire capacity of the population. So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure, and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
我想我現在處在一個困難的階段 在中國和印度的不平等 我認爲是很大的障礙 因爲要帶給整個社會成長和繁榮 必須要創造一個内需市場 避免社會的不穩定 並使用到整個社會人口的 全部潛能 所以,中國和印度真正需要的是 對醫療、教育、基礎建設、和電力設施的公共投資
You know the climate. We have great international experts within India telling us that the climate is changing, and actions has to be taken, otherwise China and India would be the countries most to suffer from climate change. And I consider India and China the best partners in the world in a good global climate policy. But they ain't going to pay for what others, who have more money, have largely created, and I can agree on that.
你們也知道氣候的問題。在印度有國際知名的專家告訴我們 全球氣候正在變化 我們必須採取行動 要不然中國和印度將會是 受全球暖化危害最深的國家 我認爲中印兩國是世界上 在制定氣候政策上的最佳夥伴 但是他們不會為這些有錢國家 所造成的後果來買單 我可以同意這點
But what I'm really worried about is war. Will the former rich countries really accept a completely changed world economy, and a shift of power away from where it has been the last 50 to 100 to 150 years, back to Asia? And will Asia be able to handle that new position of being in charge of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world? So, always avoid war, because that always pushes human beings backward. Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided, get ready for a world in equity, because this is what seems to be happening.
但是我真正擔心的是戰爭 有錢的國家真的可以接受 一個完全改變的世界經濟嗎? 他們可以接受過去50、100年、 150年間享有的權力 被亞洲奪回嗎? 又,亞洲能夠處理 它的新地位 作為世界第一強權統理世界嗎? 所以,一定要避免戰爭 因爲戰爭總是使人類文明往後退 如果這些貧富不均、氣候、和戰爭問題能避免的話 我們將可以準備迎接一個平等的世界 因爲這些是看起來即將要發生的事
And that vision that I got as a young student, 1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes, is just about to happen. And it will happen precisely the year 2048 in the later part of the summer, in July, more precisely, the 27th of July. (Applause) The 27th of July, 2048 is my 100th birthday. (Laughter) And I expect to speak in the first session of the 39th TED India. Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
而這個1972年我還在做學生時洞察到的看法 印度人會比瑞典人還好 正在發生 更精確地説 它會發生在2048年 夏天的尾聲,在七月 再更精確來説,七月二十七號 (掌聲) 2048年7月27號 是我100歲的生日 (笑聲) 我希望可以再來演講 在39屆印度TED的研討會 記得要及早定位。謝謝大家
(Applause)
(掌聲)